商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2511 | 2,818 | -1.05 | -27,338 | -8,589 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,175 | -1.06 | -4,568 | 2,790 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋11-12价差 | | -159 | | -164 | | | 鸡蛋11-1价差 | | -357 | | -349 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.53 | | 2.42 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 2.93 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Cotton shows a slight rebound [1] - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.38% and a night - session close of 13,340 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.15% (or 0.08%, data conflict). Trading volume was 225,712 hands, a decrease of 21,471 hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 877,562 hands, an increase of 5,323 hands [1]. - CY2601 closed at 19,405 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session close of 19,420 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 9,778 hands, a decrease of 1,999 hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,884 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 closed at 63.78 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.08% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2,724, a decrease of 49 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 112, an increase of 16 [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, a decrease of 6 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,457 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous day [1]. - Shandong spot price was 14,676 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Hebei spot price was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M (CNCottonM) was 71.58 cents/pound, an increase of 0.4 cents/pound (0.56%) from the previous day [1]. - Pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,228 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton (0.02%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has slightly weakened. Spinning mills maintain just - in - time procurement. Spot basis is generally stable with a slight downward trend, and some batches still offer slight discounts. The mainstream purchase price of 40% lint percentage machine - picked seed cotton in Northern Xinjiang is stable at 6.0 - 6.1 yuan/kg, with some higher offers around 6.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and prices are mainly stable. Low - priced products are selling well. Recently, traders are actively purchasing Xinjiang cotton yarn, while fabric mills are cautious in purchasing, mainly for just - in - time needs. Downstream overall purchasing is low, and the market continues to operate weakly [2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly fluctuating within the day, and closed slightly lower. The weakening of the US dollar and commercial buying slightly supported ICE cotton [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report focuses on the zinc market, showing an internal - external differentiation situation. The trend strength of zinc is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,940 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,940.5 dollars/ton, down 0.29% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 91,938 lots, a decrease of 32,328 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,267 lots, a decrease of 7,005 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 87,075 lots, a decrease of 2,837 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 224,550 lots, an increase of 749 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was 129.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,466 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons; LME zinc inventory was 38,300 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,200 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,095 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [1]. News The US intends to extend the suspension period of tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China delaying the implementation of rare - earth export controls. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated its stance on rare - earth export controls and Sino - US economic and trade issues [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Ranging pattern [1] - Polysilicon: Recommended to buy on dips [2] Core Viewpoints - The report presents detailed fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, etc., and also mentions relevant macro and industry news [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, with a volume of 209,588 lots and an open interest of 131,649 lots; PS2511 closed at 52,575 yuan/ton, with a volume of 266,129 lots and an open interest of 78,885 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium/discount varies with different benchmarks; polysilicon's spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +1385 yuan/ton [2] - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 52750 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit**: Silicon plant profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2699.5 yuan/ton, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 56.2 million tons, enterprise inventory is 16.8 million tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 25.3 million tons [2] Macro and Industry News - On September 29, 2025, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued an anti - dumping affirmative final ruling on solar cells from China, recommending a 3 - year anti - dumping tax based on CIF. Different Chinese producers have different tax rates [2][4] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 原油：风险偏好恶化，继续观望 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.81 美元/桶，跌幅 1.39%，报 57.46 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.85 美元/桶，跌幅 1.37%，报 61.06 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 8.50 元/桶，跌幅 1.91%， 报 437.10 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | 原油品种 | 参考 | | 套利状态 | 市场说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 目标地区 | | 基准 | 炼油配置 | 与值 (美 | | | | | | | 元/桶) | 运费基于长期协议；贸易 | | | Arab Extra | WTI | | 关闭: - | 流数据包含所有自沙特进 | | | Light | MEH | FCC & HCU | $5.62 | 口原油，反映裂化配置经 | | | | | | | 济性。 | | | | WTI | | 关闭: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market rebounds due to the support of the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber futures and event - driven factors like the Sino - US ship mutual sanctions. Medium - term, the market is under pressure due to large fundamental pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (November contract), the daily closing price was 11,135 yuan/ton (up 240 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 76,904 lots (up 16,649 lots), the open interest was 18,411 lots (down 6,057 lots), and the trading volume was 423.201 million yuan (up 97.645 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 35 yuan (down 190 yuan), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 85 yuan (up 25 yuan) [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong increased by 50 - 150 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, and the price of model 1712 remained unchanged. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 75 - 100 yuan [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 75.3312% (down 3.66%), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons (1.42% month - on - month) compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased. The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3,050 tons compared with the previous period [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is postponed, and the price center continues to move down [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11,280 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 10,800 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong is 11,460 yuan/ton, with year - on - year increases of 150 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,165 yuan/ton, 11,905 yuan/ton, and 11,540 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 235 yuan/ton, 290 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig futures contract 2511 is 33,489 lots, a decrease of 9,492 lots from the previous day, with an open interest of 41,232 lots, a decrease of 3,573 lots. The trading volume of contract 2601 is 80,026 lots, an increase of 28,549 lots, with an open interest of 105,012 lots, an increase of 14,112 lots. The trading volume of contract 2603 is 16,872 lots, an increase of 951 lots, with an open interest of 77,419 lots, an increase of 1,948 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Shennong's Yunnan and Guangxi warehouses registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view [3]. 3.4 Futures Research - **Basis**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 55 yuan/ton, 365 yuan/ton, and - 165 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 115 yuan/ton, 385 yuan/ton, and - 625 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of live pig futures contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are 440 yuan/ton and - 260 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 275 yuan/ton and - 740 yuan/ton [4].

Report Title - Palm Oil: Tax Increase Supports B50, Focus on Downward Support for Palm Oil; Soybean Oil: Range-Bound, Monitor China-US Economic and Trade Relations [1] Report Date - October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil is supported by tax increase for B50, and attention should be paid to its downward support; soybean oil is expected to trade within a range, and the China-US economic and trade relations should be monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented, along with trading volume and open interest changes [1] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and Malaysian palm oil are provided, as well as spot basis data [1] - **Spread Data**: Futures spreads between different oil varieties and spreads within the same variety are given, including changes compared to previous trading days [1] Macro and Industry News - From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month-on-month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month-on-month, and production increased by 6.86% month-on-month, according to SPPOMA data [2] - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.5% due to strong domestic demand offsetting trade concerns [3] - China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [4] - Speculative funds net bought 3500 lots of soybeans on Thursday, compared to 4000 lots on Wednesday [4] - The NOPA's September soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, a 4.24% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase year-on-year, setting the fourth-highest monthly record and the highest for the same period in history [4] - The US urged South Korea to increase soybean imports [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]

2025 年 10 月 17 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 截至 20251016，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 40.33 万吨(湿吨)，环比 下调 4.25%，同比上调 13.83%。 【市场状况分析】 10 月山东、河北等地区存在新增检修，烧碱供应压力不大。需求端，河北氧化铝厂集中采购烧碱，下 周随着省外订单的陆续发货，山东地区预期继续去库，短期山东市场现货偏强。从氧化铝行业看，氧化铝高 产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年 初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货源流转，但低利润的格局也会使 得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。考虑到未来可能减产装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期 对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下， ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 沥青：出货平缓 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,279 | 0.89% | 3,255 | -0.73% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,197 | 0.41% | 3,181 | -0.50% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2511 | 手 | 100,365 | (12,450) | 71,636 | (11,147) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 43,913 | 639 | 81,196 | (1,198) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 36370 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价 ...