Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 18, 2026 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views LPG Part - Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. Although the supply in the Middle East remains tight, there is still supply pressure after the impact of fog at US terminals weakens. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, the downward drive is significant. [3][4] - The lowest deliverable product may switch as the spread between Shandong civil and ether - post C4 widens. Near the cancellation month, attention should be paid to the change in the number of warehouse receipts. [4] Propylene Part - After the rapid rise of spot prices, the upward drive weakens. The tight - balance pattern of propylene is difficult to change next week. Although the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing high - priced propylene may weaken, the rigid demand for production provides strong support, so propylene is expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern. [6][7] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The lowest deliverable product is still Shandong civil gas, and the spread between civil and ether - post C4 has widened to 100 yuan/ton. [10][13] - Propane prices maintain a moderately strong trend, with the FEI index and related import costs showing an upward trend. The spot premium further increases, and the freight rate remains stable, while the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East expands. [10][21][27] Supply - US LPG shipments to Asia are flat month - on - month, while Middle East shipments are tight. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons (+0.1%), with 21.7 tons of civil gas (-0.1%) and 16.7 tons of ether - post C4 (-0.1%). Propane imports decrease by 0.2 tons month - on - month. [39][43][49][63] Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rates decline, while MTBE operating rates remain flat. LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, with a slight de - stocking of civil gas refinery inventories. Port inventories in East China, Shandong, and South China decline month - on - month, while Fujian accumulates inventory due to concentrated arrivals. [80][82][100] Propylene Part Price & Spread - The cost - end propane is firm, propylene prices rise strongly, and PDH profits fluctuate and recover. Downstream prices continue to rise, but the spread between propylene and powder returns to the loss range. International and domestic propylene prices rise month - on - month, and the import window is partially opened. [115][117][118] Balance Sheet - PDH and MTO operating rates decline month - on - month, and the powder profit is compressed, leading to a decline in its operating rate. The supply is expected to tighten gradually as the Jinneng PDH and Lianyungang Shenghong MTO are expected to undergo maintenance. The demand is supported by the rigid procurement of PP powder, and the situation is expected to improve in January. [139][159] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.2% (-0.7%). Refinery operating rates remain stable, while cracking and PDH operating rates decline. MTO operating rates also decline, but profits are recovering. [170][190][195] - The import volume of propylene increases by 0.96 tons (7.21%) month - on - month, and the import profit shows an upward trend. [204] Demand - The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, and acrylonitrile decline, while the operating rates of n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH increase. The profit performance of PP shows process differentiation, and the profit of PP powder returns to the loss range. PO prices rise strongly, and the company's profitability improves significantly. [211][231][243][273] Downstream Inventory - PP production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and powder inventory all decline. The inventory of acrylonitrile plants and ports shows different changes, and the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port declines. [298][299][300]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 365,000 - 395,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, tin prices soared to a record high of 443,380 yuan/ton driven by inventory depletion. The overall fundamentals were strong, with tight supply at the mine end and relatively insensitive terminal demand. However, this week, the fundamentals have loosened, with significant inventory accumulation. Considering the impact of Sino-US strategic stockpiling policies, tin prices may fluctuate widely next week [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was -$68/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 150 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums showed a rebound [9][10][15] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from C structure to B structure [18][19] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic social inventory increased by 2,647 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,033 tons. LME inventory also increased, and the canceled warrant ratio rebounded to 3.54% [24][27][32] - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 4,681,950,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [36] - **Transaction and Position**: This week, Shanghai tin trading volume and open interest decreased. LME tin trading volume rebounded, and open interest increased. The Shanghai tin position - to - inventory ratio declined [38][44][49] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In October 2025, tin concentrate production was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan rose to 8,000 yuan/ton. The tin ore import profit - and - loss level rebounded [53][54] - **Smelting**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot production was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.38%, a slight rebound from last week [59][61] - **Import**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,195 tons, exports were 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 6,187 yuan/ton [63][65] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,066 tons [73] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August rebounded slightly [75] - **End - User Consumption**: In November 2025, the end - user production performance was good, with the monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all rebounding. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also rebounded month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in sync with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The ICE cotton futures showed a minor fluctuation, rising first and then falling. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season initially boosted the ICE cotton price, but the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market hindered further upward movement. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, and it is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation [1][4][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 64.47, the highest was 65.25, the lowest was 64.47, the closing price was 64.62, with a gain of 0.14 and a gain rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 118,736 lots, a decrease of 33,936 lots, and the open interest was 174,114 lots, an increase of 3,066 lots. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 14,680, the highest was 14,890, the lowest was 14,430, the closing price was 14,590, with a loss of 85 and a loss rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 2,143,790 lots, a decrease of 522,972 lots, and the open interest was 822,611 lots, a decrease of 26,375 lots. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: The opening price was 20,710, the highest was 20,890, the lowest was 20,460, the closing price was 20,535, with a loss of 155 and a loss rate of 0.75%. The trading volume was 42,364 lots, a decrease of 14,878 lots, and the open interest was 15,215 lots, a decrease of 1,601 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell this week with minor fluctuations. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season on Monday strengthened the ICE cotton price, but it failed to continue rising due to the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market [4] - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the USDA reduced the US cotton planting area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the 2025/26 season. The production was cut by 350,000 bales to 13.92 million bales, and the ending stocks were reduced by 300,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the USDA first cut the global beginning stocks in the 2025/26 season by 950,000 bales, mainly reducing India's stocks by 800,000 bales. It also increased the global cotton production by 360,000 bales, with China's production up by 1 million bales and India, the US, and Turkey's production down by 500,000 bales, 350,000 bales, and 200,000 bales respectively. The global cotton consumption was increased by 310,000 bales, with China's consumption up by 500,000 bales and Turkey's down by 100,000 bales. After these adjustments, the global ending stocks in 2025/26 were reduced by 1.49 million bales to 74.48 million bales [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending January 8, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a 247% increase compared to the previous week and an 89% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam signed 28,900 tons, and China 13,000 tons. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 2,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,400 tons, a 1% increase compared to the previous week and an 8% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam shipped 12,700 tons, and Pakistan 5,600 tons. The total signing and sales volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [5] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The Cotton Association of India increased the production and ending stocks forecasts in the 2025/26 season. The production forecast was raised by 750,000 bales to 31.7 million bales, the consumption forecast was increased by 1 million bales to 30.5 million bales, the import volume forecast remained at 5 million bales, and the export volume forecast was reduced by 300,000 bales to 1.5 million bales. The ending stocks were expected to increase by 4.7 million bales to 10.759 million bales. As of the end of December, the cumulative new - cotton listing volume was 15.519 million bales [6] - Brazil: The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the 2026 cotton production forecast by about 141,000 tons to 3.82 million tons, mainly due to a slight reduction in the assessment of the planting area. In Mato Grosso, the second - crop cotton has started small - scale sowing, and the first - crop cotton sown in December last year is growing well. In Bahia, about 70% of the dry - land cotton fields in the state have completed sowing, and the sowing of irrigated cotton fields is in progress [6] - Australia: The cotton - growing areas have been hot and dry recently. The 11 - month raw cotton export volume was 131,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decline but a 36% year - on - year increase. China was the main destination, accounting for 25%, followed by Vietnam with 22% and India with 20%. In the first four months of this international quarter, the cumulative export volume was 677,000 tons, higher than 609,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season. China's share in the cumulative export volume increased to 31% (28% in the same period last year), India's share rose to 23% (13% in the same period last year), and Vietnam's share decreased to 18% (27% in the same period last year) [7] - Pakistan: The cotton import demand has recovered. The final cotton production forecast for this season is 7 - 7.25 million bales. The cotton import transactions were mild this week. As the domestic cotton price rose steadily, some spinning mills began to shift their procurement focus to the international market, and some enterprises have started to make early arrangements to ensure raw material demand in the second quarter of next year. The business with China, the core export market, is progressing normally, and Chinese buyers are willing to accept a small price increase recently [7] - Bangladesh: The country plans to increase cotton imports. The import demand in the market was mild this week. Some spinning mills plan to expand raw material procurement to lock in costs as the US cotton futures price rose slightly and the domestic yarn market improved. A proposal to levy a 20% tariff on imported yarn to protect local spinning enterprises has been opposed by clothing manufacturers. The relevant consultation is still ongoing, and some observers believe it is difficult to reach a conclusion before the general election planned for February next year. The country is conducting trade negotiations with the US to expand its market share in the US, which may bring benefits to the local textile industry. In addition, the Central Bank of Bangladesh has introduced a new export cash incentive policy. The cotton import volume in December was 113,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease. Brazil was the largest supplier, accounting for 36%, and the African Franc Zone accounted for 24%. In the first five months of this season, the cumulative cotton import volume was 630,000 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. The African Franc Zone and Brazil each accounted for 26%, and Australia and India each accounted for 15% [8] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending January 16, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67.8%, 62.9%, and 66.2% respectively, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [9] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Price and Trading: In the week ending January 16, the domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the overall price center slightly moving down. The cotton spot trading was better than last week, especially on January 12. After the low - basis cotton spot was gradually traded last week and early this week, some cotton merchants slightly increased the sales basis of cotton spot by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, but there were still some low - basis situations locally [10] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of January 16, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 9,666, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 883, totaling 10,549, equivalent to 443,058 tons. Among them, there were 217 registered warehouse receipts for domestic - produced cotton in the 2025/26 season and 9,449 for Xinjiang cotton (including 1,058 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,084 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 7,307 in inland warehouses) [10] - Spinning Mills and Weaving Mills: The situation of spinning mills was differentiated, and that of weaving mills was still general. In the pure - cotton yarn market, the low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) and conventional varieties were weak due to insufficient new orders, while the combed high - count yarn orders were continuously good, and some spinning mills' orders had reached March. The traceable yarn received a new wave of orders, and the import yarn's outer - market price trended strongly, with the domestic - market spot following the increase, and the price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed. The downstream orders improved slightly this week, but the weaving mills' comprehensive inventory was higher than in previous years, so they mainly consumed the previous inventory, and the restocking orders were limited. The startup rate of inland spinning mills decreased slightly this week, and most spinning mills offered discounts to avoid inventory accumulation. Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a high startup rate, with hot orders and large profit margins, and the prices of some spinning mills did not increase significantly. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning mills was a loss of about 350 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning mills was about 75 yuan/ton, both showing improvement compared to last week. The all - cotton grey fabric market was mainly for pre - holiday restocking, with a partial restocking market continuing but overall trading being dull. The production of some local weaving mills increased, and the startup rate recovered slightly, but the overall startup rate was low. The weaving mills' sales were not as good as in the same period of previous years, and the inventory decreased slowly. The order increment of weaving mills was small, mainly small and scattered orders, and large orders were rare. The order processing fees of weaving mills were difficult to increase, and the weaving mills maintained losses. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market and adopted a wait - and - see attitude, while a few manufacturers thought the post - holiday market might improve slightly [11][12] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and the global cotton ending stocks in the 2025/26 season in the monthly supply - demand report further strengthened the support for the ICE cotton at the level of 63 - 64 cents/pound. However, affected by the回调 of the Chinese cotton price and the strengthening US dollar, the ICE cotton futures failed to continue rising and still lacked substantial fundamental drivers. The market continued to focus on the new - season cotton sowing situation in Brazil and US cotton exports. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. Currently, the domestic cotton supply is still sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. Spinning mills have high raw material inventories, and weaving mills have completed a round of restocking, so the downstream has no intention to chase high prices in the short term. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has also raised concerns about the increase in imported cotton and yarn. In addition, the market's expectation of a decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 has been fully traded for the time being due to the lack of further details and the long time until next year's sowing. It is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, waiting for the determination of phased support [16]

动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0023682 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 日期： 2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 动力煤观点：短期市场弱调整，关注异常天气影响 ◼ 基本面： （1）供应：目前煤矿正常生产，供应平稳，后续随着春节临近部分煤矿陆续放假、供应存收缩预期。截至1月14日本周160家煤矿产能利用率为 90.32%（前值88.24%），产量为1645.7万吨（前值1607万吨）。预计随着我国煤炭供需形势的转变，叠加市场对于"减量保价"共识的达成， 2026年煤炭产能增量或收窄。2025年11月份，全国原煤产量42679.3万吨，同比-0.5%，环比+4.93%；1-11月全国原煤产量累计440164.7万吨， 同比 1.4%；1-11月进口煤及褐煤43168万吨，同比增长-12%。 （2）需求：未来10天我国冷空气势力增强，日耗或得到提振。本周电厂日耗回落，市场仅维持零星采购，目前电厂库存偏高，关注节前下游采 购补库 ...

二 五 2026 年 1 月 18 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场呈现小幅回暖的格局。TL 合约上方 MA20 有压力。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，周四有所回暖，周五盘中宽幅震荡后仍整体收阴。 1 月 15 日，中国人民银行宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，各类再贷款一年期 利率降至 1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。央行副行长邹澜称，从今年看，降准降息还有一定空间； 下一步将综合考虑灵活开展国债买卖操作。从总体看，央行先行推出下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率与 完善结构性工具种类并加大力度两方面政策。后续将推出科创再贷款、碳减排支持工具、服务消费 ...

GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：地缘风险或有反复， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 暂时观望 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 观点综述 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2026年1月18日 2 01 本周原油观点：地缘风险或有反复，暂 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17000-17600元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 | 【行情回顾】 | | | | | 【期现价差变化】 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上周收盘价 | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | 上周五 | 上上周五 | 变 动 | | 沪铅主力 | 17475 | 0 69% . | 17230 | -1 40% . | LME铅升贴水 | -44 18 . | -44 05 . | -0 13 . | | LmeS-铅3 | 2005 5 . | -2 00% . | - | - | 保税区铅溢价 | 90 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the marginal changes in the fundamentals were relatively small [18] Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 760 yuan/cubic meter, a 30 yuan/cubic meter increase from the previous week. The price difference between the two regions was -20 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4] Supply - As of January 11, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in January, all of which were headed to mainland China. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in January and 0 in February, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in January [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 16, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 20,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and at Taicang Port was 13,800 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.7493 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [6][12] Market Trends - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The monthly spread (negative value) narrowed slightly this week. The 03-05 monthly spread was -11.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03-07 monthly spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05-07 monthly spread was -11 yuan/cubic meter [18] Other - As of the week of January 17, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 1,532.00 points, a decrease of 152 points (-9.24%) from the previous week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was recorded at 589 points, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,647.39 points [6][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 6.966, a 0.54% decrease from the previous week, while the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.54% to 1.741 [6][55]

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月18日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：美联储降息预期减弱和库存增加施压价格，但长期基本面良好 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：96000-110000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 COMEX和LME价差稍有回升至90美元/吨左右 2 全球主要地区铜库存增加 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bullish sentiment in the market first soared and then declined. The price of Shanghai aluminum strengthened and then fell, driving the price of casting aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level, once reaching a high of 23,940 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, during the Spring Festival stockpiling period of recycled aluminum enterprises, the demand for scrap aluminum increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. However, the high price motivated traders to increase their shipment enthusiasm, leading to an increase in market liquidity. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry this week was stable at 58%. Due to repeated regional environmental protection restrictions and the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices, the subsequent operating rate may continue to weaken. In terms of demand, downstream die - casting enterprises showed strong fear of high prices, and enterprise orders declined significantly. Overall, with high raw material prices and the maintenance of the seasonal off - peak demand, the price of casting aluminum alloy may maintain high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the overall sentiment changes in the non - ferrous market [6]. - As of January 16, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.32 million tons from the previous week to 12.95 million tons, with a high level of visible inventory. From January 1 to 11, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a 42% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The central economic work conference in 2026 will optimize the "two new" policies, with a more precise subsidy method and different subsidy intensities for different price - range models, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars more [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction End - Volume and Price - Showed the price difference curves of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest trends of casting aluminum alloy [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2601.shf and AD2602.shf contracts on January 16, 2026, the spread was 100 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 16.05 yuan/ton, mainly including the value - added tax of the spread. The floating cost was 90.47 yuan/ton, including storage fees and capital costs. The total cost was 107 yuan/ton [12] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual market spot price fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking January 16, 2026 as an example, the spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton. After calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost was 23,652 yuan/ton [14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][21] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and the output and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also presented, along with their regional proportion data [32][37][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss state. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the social inventory has slightly increased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy has opened [48][53][58] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - In the terminal consumption market, fuel - powered vehicles have entered the year - end sales rush stage, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption market. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances are also provided, along with the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [65][66]