| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/28 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王营 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 前一交易日 | 今天 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2026/1/28 | 2025/12/29 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/21 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 37.82 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金期货价格再创历史新高 黄金、白 银期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合约 | 趋势 阻力位 | | | | | 支撑位 | | | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | IF2603 | 震荡整理 4756 | 和 | 4778 | 点 | ...

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260129 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 9 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260129 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：持续反弹，高波动态势延续 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：高位震荡20260129 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The situation of nickel - related events in Indonesia is uncertain, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel mines in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of nickel - iron supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 144,370, down 1,740 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,465, down 75 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 404,592, a decrease of 118,804 from T - 1, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 454,242, a decrease of 25,750 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 142,900, down 2,050 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054, up 1 from T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [3] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [3] - Indonesia plans to cut the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - Indonesian officials said that nickel production in 2026 will be adjusted according to industry demand and smelter production capacity, possibly around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [6] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department has started to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：逢高沽空 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2. 美加紧张局势升级！卡尼与特朗普通话表态：" 达沃斯演讲" 是认真的。据报道，加拿大总理卡尼与 特朗普通话后重申，其在达沃斯世界经济论坛上反对" 经济胁迫" 的立场是认真的，公开否认美国财长贝森 特称其" 撤回言论" 的说法。分析指出，双方公开分歧凸显关系紧张，预示即将启动的美墨加贸易协定审查 谈判将充满挑战。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 25640 | 1335 | | 1485 | રૂરકર | 4755 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 25330 | - | | l | l | ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货产区稳定、销区补涨，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4375 +24（+0.55%） | 4382 +7（+0.16%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2782 +16（+0.58%） | 2793 +16（+0.58%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1074.75 +7.25（+0.68%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 297.6 +3.8（+1.29%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） 平； | 3120～3140， 较昨持平； 现货M2605+440， 平； 3月M2605+320/+350/+360/+370/+380/+390； ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The expectation of the off - season after the festival for eggs remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Egg 2602 contract: The closing price is 3,033 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.04%. The trading volume decreased by 1,215, and the open interest decreased by 2,463 [1] - Egg 2603 contract: The closing price is 3,048 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 88,282, and the open interest decreased by 7,933 [1] - **Spread Data** - Egg 2 - 3 spread: The latest value is - 15, compared to 3 on the previous day [1] - Egg 3 - 9 spread: The latest value is - 831, compared to - 803 on the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data** - Liaoning spot price: The latest is 4.00 yuan/jin, compared to 3.90 yuan/jin on the previous day [1] - Hebei spot price: The latest is 3.62 yuan/jin, compared to 3.51 yuan/jin on the previous day [1] - Shanxi spot price: The latest is 4.00 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day [1] - Hubei spot price: The latest is 4.00 yuan/jin, compared to 3.93 yuan/jin on the previous day [1] - **Industrial Chain Data** - Corn spot price: The latest is 2,377 yuan/ton, compared to 2,379 yuan/ton on the previous day [1] - Soybean meal spot price: The latest is 3,120 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [1] - Henan pig price: The latest is 12.98 yuan/kg, compared to 13.18 yuan/kg on the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range in the [-2, 2] integer interval. The strength levels are classified as weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, strong, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.0 | -0.63% | | | I2605 | | 783.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 564,613 | -6,440 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 877.0 | 879.0 | -2.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 794.0 | 796.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 746.0 | 748.0 | -2.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 673.0 | 675.0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 956. ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 铂：跟随抬升 钯：警惕补涨 产 业 服 务 研 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 694. 80 | | -1.54% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 670. 45 | | -2.22% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2705. 10 | | 2. 27% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2704. 10 | | 2. 29% | | | | 铝金期货2606 | 504. 00 | | -3.63% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 459.00 | | -4.77% | | | | 纽约包主连(前日) | 2.095. 50 | | 7. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 2.059.50 | | 6.60% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | ...

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 25605 | 2.63% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3358.5 | 0.22% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 284497 | 28823 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 11349 | -5211 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118199 | -747 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 233157 | -1107 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 5 | -30 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -30.81 | -4.38 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 ...