1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the trends of various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [2][11]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Mid - term trend is weak. Aromatic hydrocarbon valuation cost support is weak, but there may be a positive impact from the improvement of MX blending demand. Suggest to focus on long PXN [11]. - **PTA**: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. The unilateral trend is weak. Cost support is weak, supply is sufficient, and new devices are about to be put into production. Pay attention to polyester filament production cuts and the impact of additional shipping fees on textile exports [11]. - **MEG**: The supply is in surplus, and the unilateral trend is weak. Although there may be potential positive factors from port arrivals, the overall supply is still sufficient [12]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move in a range. The trend strength is neutral [13][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, there is a rebound, but the medium - term trend is under pressure. The rebound is due to cost support and event - driven factors, while the fundamental pressure remains large [17][19]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market has a flat shipment situation. The trend is weak, with a decline in production, a decrease in factory and social inventories, and a weakening of cost support from crude oil [20][21][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE trend is weak. Affected by factors such as increased supply, geopolitical situation, and trade issues, the market inventory pressure is large, and the cost support from crude oil is limited [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP trend remains weak. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price, and the short - term situation is difficult to reverse fundamentally [37][38]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The rebound height of caustic soda is limited. Although the spot pressure in Shandong is temporarily relieved, the alumina production reduction expectation suppresses the valuation height [42]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move in a range. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The futures market has a slight improvement in production and sales [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market is expected to move in a range. The port market price is strong due to inventory reduction, while the inland market is weak [54][57]. 3.11 Urea - In the short term, it moves in a range, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The enterprise inventory is rising, the spot trading is weak, and the export increment may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [59][61]. 3.12 Styrene - Stop loss on short positions. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound. The expected production reduction of pure benzene in October turns the inventory accumulation expectation into a de - stocking expectation [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with supply at a high level and downstream demand stable [64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Due to the expectation of supply shortage, the price has risen significantly. - **Propylene**: There is a rebound supported by cost, but the supply - demand pressure still exists [66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC trend is weak. The market inventory pressure is large, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export growth may slow down [73]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It moves in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [76]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a range - bound market, affected by factors such as freight rates, shipping capacity, and exchange rates [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the trading situation of soybeans and soybean meal futures. It indicates that soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation with capital and technical - based trading, while soybeans are in an oscillation state. The prices of related futures and spot products are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4018 yuan/ton during the day session, up 30 yuan (+0.75%), and 4029 yuan/ton at night, up 9 yuan (+0.22%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2907 yuan/ton during the day session, down 7 yuan (-0.24%), and 2891 yuan/ton at night, down 24 yuan (-0.82%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1011.75 cents/bushel, up 4.75 cents (+0.47%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 277.3 dollars/short ton, up 1.4 dollars (+0.51%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2960 - 2980 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2910 yuan/ton, remaining flat; in South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, remaining flat or up 10 yuan [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.52 million tons/day, and the inventory was 104.67 million tons/week, compared with 11 million tons/day and 115.28 million tons/week in the previous period [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong domestic demand, offsetting concerns about Sino - US trade tensions. Due to the government shutdown and the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders at the end of the month, key crop data has not been released, and trading remains cautious. China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums, which may prompt China to use national reserves to meet short - term demand. The US Agriculture Secretary said the US can supply soybeans to South American countries for crushing, but no details were provided [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the reporting day [3].

2025年10月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 10 月 15 日电，国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 9 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 2.3%， 降幅比上月收窄 0.6 个百分点，环比继续持平。（来自财联社 APP） 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 2 | | | | 昨日 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 铜：现货升水，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 85,070 | -0.91% | 85140 | 0.08% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,620 | 0.42% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 108,052 | -7,008 | 214,147 | 5,217 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 19,917 | 3,716 | 322,000 | 1,380 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 44,406 | -125 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 137,450 | -900 | 5.49% | -0.69% | | | | | 昨日价 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, analyzing their fundamentals, market trends, and related data [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - There is an expectation of tight LPG supply, leading to a significant price increase; propylene rebounds due to cost support, but supply - demand pressure remains [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data LPG Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,268 yesterday with a 2.89% daily increase, and 4,252 in the night session with a - 0.37% decrease; PG2512 closed at 4,138 yesterday with a 2.96% daily increase, and 4,115 in the night session with a - 0.56% decrease; PL2601 closed at 6,106 yesterday with a 0.44% daily increase, and 6,094 in the night session with a - 0.20% decrease; PL2602 closed at 6,150 yesterday with a 0.72% daily increase, and 6,138 in the night session with a - 0.20% decrease [1] LPG Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 67,381 trades yesterday, an increase of 12,220 from the previous day, and a position of 42,120, a decrease of 4,189; PG2512 had 56,943 trades yesterday, an increase of 17,573, and a position of 78,571, an increase of 5,333; PL2601 had 8,559 trades yesterday, a decrease of 3,155, and a position of 11,511, a decrease of 112; PL2602 had 2,692 trades yesterday, a decrease of 5,996, and a position of 4,835, an increase of 335 [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 232 yesterday, compared to 352 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 262 yesterday, compared to 402 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 109 yesterday, compared to 181 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 84 yesterday, compared to 136 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 19 yesterday, compared to 46 the previous day [1] Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 68.8%, down from 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, down from 64.1%; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, down from 46.1% [1] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 6: Market Information CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 16, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 450 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 453 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 454 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start - times dating back to 2023 and many end - times still undetermined [6] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many factories across different regions in China, including Shandong, Northeast, South China, etc., have device maintenance plans, with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start - times, end - times, and maintenance durations [6]

| | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17100 | -0.06% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1986 | 0.46% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 32242 | -9015 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4671 | -4614 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 41899 | -2133 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 152886 | 147 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -10 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -43.75 | -11.75 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -30 | -120 | 进口升贴水（美 | 107.5 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -267.1 | 3.96 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamental data of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and inventory changes. It also mentions industry news such as production, inventory, and new project shipments. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as "1", indicating a relatively positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts increased, with the 2511 contract closing at 74,940 and the 2601 at 75,080. The trading volume and open interest of the two contracts showed different trends. The 2511 contract's trading volume decreased, while the 2601 contract's increased. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased, and the 2601 contract increased. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 2,620 to 30,456 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and futures contracts showed certain fluctuations. The basis between the 2511 and 2601 contracts was -140, and the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased slightly, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly compared to previous periods [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The prices of some lithium salts and related products, such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide and ternary materials, showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 50 to 78,100 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,064 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous working day [1][2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, an increase of 431 tons from last week. The industry - wide inventory was 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons from last week [3]. - **Project News**: On October 14, Hainan Mining's Mali Bougouni lithium mine project held a shipment ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be shipped to Hainan Yangpu Port to supply raw materials for its lithium salt processing project [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is rated as "1", indicating a relatively positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [3].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 铝：具备上涨弹性 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20975 | ર્સ | -115 | 330 | 620 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21060 | l | l | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2796 | 52 | 14 | 177 | 230 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | ୧୧୫୦3 | -16299 | -93920 | -92783 | -51574 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2511 | 2,818 | -1.05 | -27,338 | -8,589 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,175 | -1.06 | -4,568 | 2,790 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋11-12价差 | | -159 | | -164 | | | 鸡蛋11-1价差 | | -357 | | -349 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.53 | | 2.42 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 2.93 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Cotton shows a slight rebound [1] - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.38% and a night - session close of 13,340 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.15% (or 0.08%, data conflict). Trading volume was 225,712 hands, a decrease of 21,471 hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 877,562 hands, an increase of 5,323 hands [1]. - CY2601 closed at 19,405 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session close of 19,420 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 9,778 hands, a decrease of 1,999 hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,884 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 closed at 63.78 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.08% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2,724, a decrease of 49 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 112, an increase of 16 [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, a decrease of 6 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,457 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous day [1]. - Shandong spot price was 14,676 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Hebei spot price was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M (CNCottonM) was 71.58 cents/pound, an increase of 0.4 cents/pound (0.56%) from the previous day [1]. - Pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,228 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton (0.02%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has slightly weakened. Spinning mills maintain just - in - time procurement. Spot basis is generally stable with a slight downward trend, and some batches still offer slight discounts. The mainstream purchase price of 40% lint percentage machine - picked seed cotton in Northern Xinjiang is stable at 6.0 - 6.1 yuan/kg, with some higher offers around 6.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and prices are mainly stable. Low - priced products are selling well. Recently, traders are actively purchasing Xinjiang cotton yarn, while fabric mills are cautious in purchasing, mainly for just - in - time needs. Downstream overall purchasing is low, and the market continues to operate weakly [2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly fluctuating within the day, and closed slightly lower. The weakening of the US dollar and commercial buying slightly supported ICE cotton [2]