Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil turned weaker during the night session and is expected to enter a short - term consolidation phase. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues its consolidation trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For fuel oil futures, FU2509 closed at 2,933 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, with a settlement price of 2,953 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. FU2510 closed at 2,949 yuan/ton, up 0.31%, with a settlement price of 2,969 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, LU2509 closed at 3,655 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a settlement price of 3,672 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LU2510 closed at 3,676 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with a settlement price of 3,697 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 403,993 lots, a decrease of 79,435 lots, and the open interest was 148,798 lots, a decrease of 18,854 lots. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 185,899 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots, and the open interest was 83,718 lots, a decrease of 12,634 lots. - For LU2509, the trading volume was 12,574 lots, an increase of 2,637 lots, and the open interest was 14,320 lots, a decrease of 2,701 lots. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 116,200 lots, a decrease of 220 lots, and the open interest was 60,855 lots, a decrease of 5,550 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) were 110,980, with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore, the MOPS price of 3.5%S fuel was 411.4 dollars/ton, down 0.26%, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 511.8 dollars/ton, down 0.53%. - The Singapore Bunker price of 3.5%S fuel was 426.0 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 526.0 dollars/ton, down 0.19%. - Similar price changes were observed in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between FU09 - 10 was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged from the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - FU09 was 722 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. - Other spreads such as FU2509 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) decreased by 15.3 yuan/ton, LU2509 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) decreased by 17.4 yuan/ton, and the spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) decreased by 1.6 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 indicates the most bearish outlook and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to face further pressure, with a likely pattern of reduced supply and demand in September. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract remains to go short on rallies. The impact of the anti - involution policy on the container shipping industry is currently limited, and attention should be paid to the influence of Sino - US tariff negotiations on the macro sentiment of EC. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - The container shipping index (European line) showed weak operation yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66% and reduced positions by 3056 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1692.3 points, down 3.59% and reduced positions by 45 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2121.6 points, down 0.66% and reduced positions by 724 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rates - The PA alliance increased the price - cut intensity, with the market freight rate center in the 2nd adjustment of August falling to the range of $3100 - 3200/FEU. Different alliances and shipping companies also adjusted their freight rates, such as the Gemini alliance, Maersk, and the 20A alliance. The PA alliance's weekly price - cut range expanded to $400/FEU, and the MSG 33 - week shipping schedule was adjusted down by $300 to $3340/FEU [8]. 3.3 Fundamentals (Supply - side) - In the supply - side, the AEU3 canceled sailings in week 34. Cosco & OOCL made ship - axis adjustments. Maersk's overtime ship MAERSK EMDEN confirmed its port calls. August's weekly capacity was slightly revised up from 32.4 million TEU to 32.7 million TEU, with extremely high capacity pressure in week 34. September's weekly capacity was revised down from 32.1 to 31.8 million TEU, a - 3% month - on - month decrease compared to August, a + 5.7% increase compared to July, and on par with April's capacity level [9]. 3.4 Market Trends and Strategies - From a monthly perspective, September is likely to see a pattern of reduced supply and demand, but the decline in the currently - counted capacity may be less than that in demand. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 10 contract [10].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 1, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to experience low - level fluctuations; stainless steel's real - world fundamentals are being verified, and the macro - sentiment is waning [2]. Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots [5]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park, and potential fines may be imposed. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has approved a higher nickel production target for 2025. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [5][6][7]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Core View - The C - structure of lithium carbonate has declined, and attention should be paid to the August delivery situation [2]. Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 521,849 lots, a decrease of 271,060 lots [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Mt Marion's lithium concentrate production and shipments decreased in Q2 2025, while Wodgina's production and shipments increased [12][13]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress; for polysilicon, the short - term sentiment has cooled, and the market should be treated as a callback [2]. Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2509 contract for industrial silicon was 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract for polysilicon was 49,130 yuan/ton, down 5,575 yuan [15]. Macro and Industry News - A notice was issued to regulate the use of cultivated land in photovoltaic projects [16]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC released hawkish expectations [2][4]. - Silver: Prices retreated from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Rising spot premiums limited price declines [2][10]. - Zinc: Inventories continued to accumulate [2][13]. - Lead: Increasing inventories pressured prices [2][16]. - Tin: Prices oscillated within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum: Prices trended downward with fluctuations [2][24]. - Alumina: Prices reverted to fundamentals [2][24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Prices followed those of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Prices oscillated at low levels [2][27]. - Stainless Steel: The actual fundamentals were verified, and macro - sentiment faded [2][28]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2510 was 770.28 with a daily decline of 0.45%, and the night - session closing price was 770.92 with a 0.12% increase. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2510 was 9008 with a 2.00% decline, and the night - session closing price was 8935.00 with a 1.37% decline. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 88 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, with the US core PCE price index in June rising 2.8% year - on - year, hitting a four - month high. The world gold council reported that central banks' gold purchases in Q2 reached a three - year low, and ETFs took over to support gold demand [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Copper main contract was 78,040 with a 1.13% decline, and the night - session closing price was 78010 with a 0.04% decline. The spot premium over the near - month futures contract increased by 55 to 165 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump increased the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35%, and the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Trump also imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Zinc main contract was 22345 with a 1.43% decline. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2795.5 with a 0.68% decline. LME Zinc inventories decreased by 4250 tons [13]. - **News**: The US was pressuring multiple countries on tariffs, and Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and planned to negotiate with India [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Lead main contract was 16735 with a 0.92% decline. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1992 with a 1.39% decline. SHFE Lead inventories increased by 426 tons [16]. - **News**: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, and the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Tin main contract was 265,290 with a 0.96% decline, and the night - session closing price was 264,200 with a 0.74% decline. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 2,600 to 265,500 [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including tariff news and inflation data [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [23]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20510, down 115. The closing price of the SHFE Alumina main contract was 3222, down 104. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 19950, down 120 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days, and Mexico would continue to pay certain tariffs during this period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), Alumina had a trend intensity of - 1 (bearish), and Aluminum Alloy had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral) [26]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Nickel main contract was 121,720, down 80. The closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,920, unchanged. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 912, up 1 [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production phase, and environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both Nickel and Stainless Steel had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral) [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience a weakening oscillatory trend as market sentiment cools [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are subject to weakening oscillatory trends due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations as market sentiment is realized [2][17][18]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][26]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2509 futures contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton (-1.27%). The open - position decreased by 32,551 lots. Spot prices of various iron ores remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed some changes, with the basis of I2509 against Super Special increasing by 10.0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2510 rebar futures contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (-4.19%), and the HC2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (-3.56%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the weekly data on July 31 [9][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 31, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. The Politburo meeting proposed to manage enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity governance in key industries [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [9][11]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Various price spreads showed different changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price and production data for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions in July. The production and transportation data of manganese ore from Comilog in the second quarter of 2025 were released [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed. There were also changes in basis and spreads. The open - position of some contracts decreased [18]. - **Price and Open - Position Situation**: There were coking coal quotes at northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 31. The open - position changes of some contracts among the top 20 members of the DCE were provided [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. 3.5 Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2508 steam coal contract had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. The open - position of the ZC2508 contract among the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change on July 31 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.6 Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Politburo decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "weak and volatile" rating for both the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the closing price of SiFe2509 is 5696, down 312 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 487,970 and an open interest of 169,660; SiFe2510's closing price is 5684, down 306, with a trading volume of 41,866 and an open interest of 43,123. For manganese ferroalloy, MnSi2509's closing price is 5946, down 170, with a trading volume of 536,181 and an open interest of 299,149; MnSi2510's closing price is 5956, down 166, with a trading volume of 27,806 and an open interest of 25,424 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, down 50; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 96 yuan/ton, up 262; that of manganese ferroalloy is - 196 yuan/ton, up 120. The near - far month price difference of silicon ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 is - 146 yuan/ton, down 14; that of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 is - 82 yuan/ton, up 10. The cross - variety price difference of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 is 250 yuan/ton, up 142 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On July 31, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5500 - 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5750, in Qinghai 5550 - 5650 (+50), in Gansu 5600 - 5700 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5700 - 5800 (+50); the price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5850 - 5900, in Qinghai 5850 - 5900, in Gansu 5850 - 5900, and in Inner Mongolia 5900 - 5950 (+50). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 6000 - 6100 (-50) yuan/ton [2] - **Production News**: In July, the production of silicon - manganese in traditional southern production areas showed obvious differentiation. The production in Guizhou and Guangxi with no electricity price advantage continued to decline. Although there were individual factory resumptions in Guangxi and Guizhou at the end of July, the production recovery was slow. Yunnan entered the wet season with good production. The silicon - manganese production in Guangxi was about 2.69 million tons, in Guizhou about 2.73 million tons, and in Yunnan about 5.75 million tons. In July, the overall production of silicon - manganese in the northern region increased, with factories in Shandong, Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Henan resuming production or increasing production. The silicon - manganese production in Ningxia was about 19.55 million tons, in Inner Mongolia about 43.75 million tons, and in other northern regions about 8.66 million tons. The total production of all grades of silicon - manganese in July was about 89.27 million tons, an increase of nearly 6 million tons compared with June. The total production from January to July was about 602.29 million tons (compared with 607.67 million tons in the same period in 2024) [2][4] - **Manganese Ore News**: According to the Q2 2025 report of Comilog, the production of manganese ore and sintered ore in Q2 2025 was 1.764 million tons, a 1.18% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 10.6% increase year - on - year; the transportation volume was 1.659 million tons, a 19.7% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.41% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the alleviation of logistics challenges at Owendo Port, with the transportation volume reaching 600,000 tons in June, while railway transportation remained the main pressure point in the logistics chain. In the first half of 2025, the mine production was 3.5 million tons (+1%), and the transportation volume decreased to 3 million tons (-5%). The FOB cash cost of manganese ore business activities in the first half of the year was 2.3 dollars/ton - degree. Considering the logistics challenges in the first half of the year, the manganese ore transportation volume target for 2025 was adjusted to 6.5 - 7 million metric tons [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is - 1, and that of manganese ferroalloy is - 1, indicating a weak outlook for both [4]

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - PX: The commodity market is weakening, and PX long - positions are being reduced. Suggest going long PX and short PTA01 contracts, and shorting PXN on rallies. The supply is marginally decreasing, but the cost side is strengthening, so PXN should be shorted on highs [1][8]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Consider basis reverse arbitrage and focus on long - short positive arbitrage for the monthly spread. The supply pressure is increasing, and the basis remains suitable for reverse arbitrage. With potential changes in device operations in August, the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. The polyester start - up may bottom out in the short term, and the processing fee of the 01 contract is trending down [1][8][9]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is still weak. Consider basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts is a concern. The port inventory is falling, but the monthly spread is weak due to delivery pressure. The spread between ethylene glycol and plastics/styrene is at a high level, so consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L. The supply is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide devices may switch to produce ethylene glycol [1][9][10]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Concerns about the lack of progress in Sino - US trade negotiations are increasing, pressuring the spot market. Supply tightness in August and September is expected to ease, and the PX - naphtha spread is weakening. The PX start - up rate in China is about 80.5%, and the PX price fell on July 31 [3][5]. - PTA: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has a temporary shutdown, and some other devices have reduced loads. The PTA start - up rate is about 81.2%, and the capacity base has been adjusted to 8851.5 million tons since July 1, 2025 [5]. - MEG: A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia has a temporary shutdown, and a 400,000 - ton/year device in Xinjiang has restarted. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 69% (up 0.65% from the previous period), and the capacity base has been adjusted to 2917.5 million tons since June 1, 2025 [6]. - Polyester: Two polyester devices are under maintenance, and a new 300,000 - ton polyester device in Anhui has been put into production. The overall polyester load is fluctuating, and the start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn has dropped to about 67%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on July 31 were weak, and the average sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were 53% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6928 | 4808 | 4414 | 6464 | 531.3 | | Change | - 64 | - 48 | - 36 | - 36 | 2.7 | | Change rate | - 0.80% | - 0.99% | - 0.81% | - 0.55% | 0.51% | | Monthly spread (yesterday's closing price) | 64 | - 32 | - 27 | - 58 | 5.2 | | Monthly spread (change) | - 42 | - 34 | 1 | - 4 | - 1.9 | | Spot price (yesterday) | 859.33 (USD/ton) | 4826 (CNY/ton) | 4492 | 611 | 72.7 (USD/barrel) | | Spot price (change) | - 7 | - 32 | - 33 | 2.75 | - 0.85 | | Spot processing fee (yesterday) | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Spot processing fee (change) | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal, with CBOT soybeans falling due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and weak Chinese demand, and the prices of DCE soybeans and soybean meal showing fluctuations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Soybean 2509 closed at 4131 yuan/ton during the day session, down 21 yuan (-0.51%), and 4133 yuan/ton at night, down 4 yuan (-0.10%); DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3000 yuan/ton during the day session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%), and 3002 yuan/ton at night, down 4 yuan (-0.13%); CBOT Soybean 11 was at 990.25 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents (-0.58%); CBOT Soybean Meal 12 was at 276.3 dollars/short - ton, up 2.0 dollars (+0.73%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2900 - 2940 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months; in East China, the price was 2920 yuan/ton in a certain factory in Lianyungang, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis prices for different months; in South China, the price was 2900 - 2910 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 41.5 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 29.71 million tons/day two trading days ago; the inventory was 96.1 million tons/week on the previous trading day, compared to 90.83 million tons/week two trading days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, CBOT soybeans closed lower, hitting the lowest level since April, due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and weak Chinese demand. The current weather forecast is extremely bearish for prices. China, the world's largest soybean importer, is still absent from the US soybean market, and there is a deadline for a long - term tariff agreement with the Trump administration on August 12. Trade insiders believe that China's demand for soybeans may weaken later this year [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Volatile downward trend [1] - Alumina: Return to fundamentals [1] - Cast aluminium alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminium [1] 2. Core Views - The report provides updated fundamental data for aluminium, alumina, and cast aluminium alloy, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - Trump announced that the US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, during which Mexico will pay various tariffs, and the two sides will negotiate to reach a trade agreement [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminium**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 20,510, down 115 from the previous day. The trading volume was 145,300, and the position was 248,613. The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 2,563, down 46. The LME注销仓单占比 was 3.04%, down 0.06% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,222, up 319. The trading volume was 381,169, and the position was 135,096 [1]. - **Aluminium alloy**: The closing price of the aluminium alloy main contract was 19,950, down 120 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminium**: The domestic aluminium ingot social inventory was 525,000 tons, up 11,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminium enterprise profit was 3,830.26, down 90.00 [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,274, up 3. The alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 403 US dollars/ton, up 1 [1]. - **Aluminium alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was - 249, up 72. The three - place inventory totaled 31,227 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - The trend intensity of aluminium is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminium alloy is 0 [3].

2025 年 8 月 1 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,205 | -140 | -4.19 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,390 | -125 | -3.56 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,730,966 | 1,816,026 | -213,107 | | | HC2510 | 1,070,244 （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 1,433,936 （元/吨） 前日价格 | -139,278 （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3370 | 3440 | -70 | | | 杭州 螺 ...