1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a pressured and volatile pattern in the short term. With port inventories entering an accumulation cycle, supply pressure becomes more apparent. The price of broadleaf pulp may continue to face downward pressure, while the price of softwood pulp will fluctuate between the futures market and the weak spot fundamentals. The market lacks a one - sided driving force, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate following the overall atmosphere of commodities and macro - news [97][98]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rebounds or stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for inter - period trading, and observe for inter - variety trading [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 15, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 543,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons or 3.4%. The inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.362 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons or 1.5%. The inventory at Gaolan Port was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons or 51.2%. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.014 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons or 0.3% [5][6]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The cumulative annual imports were 36.038 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.9% [6]. - On January 15, 2026, the environmental impact report of Jiulong Paper's quality improvement and efficiency enhancement technical renovation project was approved. The total investment of the project is 4 billion yuan, and the total pulp and paper production capacity will reach 9.1 million tons per year [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On January 16, 2026, the basis of Silver Star pulp was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 76.00%; the basis of Russian Needle pulp was - 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25.33%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [13]. - On January 16, 2026, the 03 - 05 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.88%; the 05 - 07 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.33% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to narrow this week. On January 16, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.76%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.38% [23][25]. - The import profit of pulp decreased. In January, the announced FOB prices of softwood pulp increased by $10/ton, and those of hardwood pulp increased by $20/ton, while the FOB price of unbleached pulp remained flat. Downstream paper mills are cautiously waiting and seeing, and the trading situation in the pulp market is unclear [29]. - The price of the main pulp futures contract fluctuated downward. The spot price of imported softwood pulp adjusted weakly following the market. The import cost of hardwood pulp remained high, but the trading rhythm in the market slowed down, and the high - price goods had few actual transactions [31][33]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased this week, while the supply of domestic pulp remained stable [44]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline [48]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [52]. - In October 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November, the export volume of Finnish softwood pulp to China decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. In December, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [58]. - In November 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased month - on - month. In December, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month, and the export volumes of Chile and Uruguay to China also increased [62]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with softwood pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and hardwood pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [64]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a weak consolidation state. The supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the price was difficult to transmit downstream [68]. - The domestic coated paper market was sluggish. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the middle - men traders were cautious and focused on destocking [72]. - The price of white cardboard was stable this week. The cost provided bottom - support, but the demand weakened, and the traders' enthusiasm decreased [76]. - The price of household paper was stable this week. The terminal demand was weak, and the industry's operating rate decreased slightly [80]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [84]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On January 16, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 149,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.16%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.41% [87]. - The port inventory was at the median level since 2025, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China continued to accumulate this week. The inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased slightly, while the inventory at other ports decreased to varying degrees [94].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：站在新的起涨点；白银：做多金银比 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银中行 价格区间：985-1100元/克、20300-23500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.61%，伦敦银回升16.2%。金银比从前周的57回落至50，10年期TIPS回升至1.91%，10年期名义利率回落至4.24%（2年期 3.59%），美元指数录得99.37。 ◆ 周五，原本美联储主席大热人选哈塞特被特朗普提及希望留任白宫，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）异军突起， 周四与当选总统特朗普的面试表现"相当顺利"，成为执掌美联储权杖的领跑者之一。他主张货币宽松、赤字无忧、通 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场横盘运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4454元/吨，环比持平，与上周趋势相比由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初个别纸企报盘上 调，出货基本稳定，经销商谨慎拿货为主，备货意愿偏低；第二，江西地区个别停机产线复产，市场供应压力增加；第三，出版订单继续提 货，下游印厂社会面接单有限，采买热情欠佳，整体交投偏刚需；第四，上游木浆价格部分上涨，成本面对双胶纸支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view on urea is for a period of sideways consolidation. The short - term price may experience a correction, but the decline is expected to be limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and the medium - term trend remains bullish. The future upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is estimated to be between 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spreads - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipt numbers, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][6][18]. Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. Many companies had new capacity additions or device restarts, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025 and an expected 651 million tons in 2026 [22]. - **Production Plan**: A list of urea production enterprise maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026 is provided, including details such as enterprise name, annual production capacity, raw materials, and maintenance reasons [24]. - **Output**: Despite production profits being at the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization, and coal - based and gas - based urea output [25][26]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, gas - based, and fluidized - bed) are presented [28]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state, and charts show the profit trends of different production processes [33]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Tables show monthly and annual net import/export data from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [44][47]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals include capacity utilization, production costs, production margins, and factory inventories [54]. - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production margins, market prices, output, and capacity utilization [55]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience [58]. Inventory - The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 98.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 million tons or 3.53%. As of January 15, 2026, the port inventory was 13.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons or 4.29% [62][63]. International Urea - Charts show the historical trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, and the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [18][67].

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年1月18日 煤焦：供需微妙修复，矛盾仍在积累 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，国内煤矿开工逐步恢复至正常水平，煤矿出货顺畅，个别春节前产量已全部签订，坑口报价涨幅以及涨价范围也在逐渐扩大。Mysteel统计 523座炼焦煤矿山周度产销情况，样本煤矿原煤日产环比增加7.9万吨。进口方面，本周下游冬储窗口完全打开，国内煤炭市场火爆带动口岸销售转好， 成交量较前期明显增加，监管区库存逐步去化。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 事件驱动叠加估值修复，供需结构微妙变化，煤焦将维持高位震荡格局。近期反弹背后的原因已脱离商品基本面叙事，博弈主要围绕两方面展开。首 先，从驱动的角度来看，市场交易的核心在于对2026年煤矿保供管理的担忧，之所以有退出保供这件事主要是因为之前政策开绿灯给煤矿产能核增， 要求100%保供的时候，上游实际是没有好好的去履约执行的，那么现在想要稳煤价托底，去抓典型，就得把之前表现不好的煤矿的核增产能给收回了。 此外，从估值的角度来看，黑色此前价格均处于低位，在目前商品板块轮动明显的背景下，资金对于 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 15, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.32%, IH fell 0.24%, IC rose 0.14%, and IM rose 0.3% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 35,576 lots, 13,666 lots, 81,143 lots, and 73,493 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,419 lots, 3,997 lots, 17,852 lots, and 13,386 lots respectively [2] - The central bank introduced a policy "combination punch" to support the high - quality development of the real economy, including interest rate cuts and increasing loan quotas. A - share market had a divergence between large and small - cap indexes, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling in light trading volume, while the ChiNext Index rose. The semiconductor industry chain exploded in the afternoon, and the precious metals sector continued to strengthen [6] - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated lower, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all falling. The market turnover decreased compared with the previous trading day [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2601 - IF2606 showed different changes, with the highest increase of 0.32% for IF2601. The trading volume and positions of different contracts also changed, such as the trading volume of IF2601 decreasing by 10,382 lots and the positions decreasing by 8,395 lots [1] - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2601 - IH2606 had different trends, mainly showing a decline. For example, IH2601 fell 0.24%. The trading volume and positions changes of each contract were also different [1] - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2601 - IC2606 generally showed an upward trend, with the highest increase of 0.53% for IC2606. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed accordingly [1] - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2601 - IM2606 all rose, with the highest increase of 0.56% for IM2606. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes [1] 2. Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Members of Stock Index Futures - For different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, the increase or decrease of long and short positions of the top 20 members varied. For example, in IF2601, the long - position decrease was - 7442, and the short - position decrease was - 9108 [5] 3. Market Trends and Influencing Factors - The central bank's policy "combination punch" included measures such as cutting interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, increasing loan quotas, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans. The A - share market had a divergence between large and small - cap indexes, and the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated lower [6][7]

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 2026/1/16 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixi ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report presents the historical and current data of agricultural product warehouse receipts, including the warehouse receipt quantities of various agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, etc., and their week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year changes [3][4][5][6] Summary by Category Warehouse Receipt Quantity Data - The warehouse receipt quantity data of various agricultural products from 2018 - 2026 are presented, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, cotton, sugar, and live pigs [3][4][5] Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - The latest values, week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year changes of the warehouse receipt quantities of various agricultural products are provided, such as soybean meal with a week-on-week increase of 28%, month-on-month increase of 36.1%, and year-on-year increase of 47%; rapeseed meal with a week-on-week change of 0%, month-on-month change of inf%, and year-on-year decrease of 99%; etc [6] Aggregate Data - The aggregate warehouse receipt quantity is 131,797.0 hands, with a week-on-week increase of 21%, month-on-month increase of 15.9%, and year-on-year decrease of 29% [6]

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Slightly under pressure [1] - Alumina: Oscillating downward [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - In 2025, China's total social financing increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan. The moderately loose monetary policy effectively supported the stable growth of the real economy [2] - The Pentagon is moving a carrier strike group to the Middle East, and Iran temporarily closed its airspace [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 24,375 yuan, down 220 yuan from the previous day [1] - The closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 3,172 US dollars, down 18 US dollars from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 766,880 lots, down 10,827 lots from the previous day [1] Alumina Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE alumina contract was 2,789 yuan, down 11 yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the main SHFE alumina contract was 618,962 lots, down 72,332 lots from the previous day [1] Aluminum Alloy Futures Market - The closing price of the main aluminum alloy contract was 23,155 yuan, down 225 yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the main aluminum alloy contract was 18,793 lots, down 1,010 lots from the previous day [1] Aluminum Spot Market - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 749,000 tons, up 9,000 tons from the previous day [1] - The inventory of aluminum ingots in the SHFE warehouse was 138,100 tons, up 4,500 tons from the previous day [1] - The inventory of LME aluminum ingots was 490,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day [1] Alumina Spot Market - The average domestic alumina price was 2,671 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1] - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 331 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Aluminum Bauxite Spot Market - The price of Australian imported bauxite was 62 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price of Indonesian imported bauxite was 40 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Aluminum Alloy Spot Market - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 304 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The inventory of three places in total was 43,511 tons, down 96 tons from the previous day [1] Caustic Soda Spot Market - The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,325 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for soybean meal is to wait and see, pending the progress of China-Canada trade consultations. The rating for soybean No.1 is a rebound and oscillation [1]. 2) Core Viewpoints - On January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong export sales, domestic soybean crushing demand, and a surge in Chicago soybean oil futures, which offset the pressure from the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest. The increase in US soybean oil futures was mainly because the US government may set the 2026 biofuel blending quota in March, and US soybean oil inventories were lower than market expectations [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4333 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 (+0.09%), and 4351 yuan/ton at night, up 28 (+0.65%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2740 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 (-0.33%), and 2744 yuan/ton at night, down 4 (-0.15%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1052.5 cents per bushel, up 10.0 (+0.96%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 289.2 dollars per short ton, down 2.8 (-0.96%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was in the range of 3095 - 3180 yuan/ton, with different premiums to the futures contract M2605 for different periods; in East China, prices varied among different enterprises and periods; in South China, prices also showed different premiums and discounts to futures contracts [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 52.6 million tons per day on the previous trading day, down from 87.7 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory of soybean meal was 101.88 million tons per week on the previous trading day, down from 105.05 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - Private exporters reported sales of 204,000 tons of US soybeans to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations, mostly for delivery in the 2025/26 season. The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, which may maintain a quota similar to the initial proposal and abandon the punitive plan for imported renewable fuels and their raw materials. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with Chinese national leaders on Friday, and the Canadian Foreign Minister said progress had been made in consultations with China on reducing tariffs on Canadian products [3]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].