Report Title - Palm Oil: Tax Increase Supports B50, Focus on Downward Support for Palm Oil; Soybean Oil: Range-Bound, Monitor China-US Economic and Trade Relations [1] Report Date - October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil is supported by tax increase for B50, and attention should be paid to its downward support; soybean oil is expected to trade within a range, and the China-US economic and trade relations should be monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented, along with trading volume and open interest changes [1] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and Malaysian palm oil are provided, as well as spot basis data [1] - **Spread Data**: Futures spreads between different oil varieties and spreads within the same variety are given, including changes compared to previous trading days [1] Macro and Industry News - From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month-on-month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month-on-month, and production increased by 6.86% month-on-month, according to SPPOMA data [2] - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.5% due to strong domestic demand offsetting trade concerns [3] - China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [4] - Speculative funds net bought 3500 lots of soybeans on Thursday, compared to 4000 lots on Wednesday [4] - The NOPA's September soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, a 4.24% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase year-on-year, setting the fourth-highest monthly record and the highest for the same period in history [4] - The US urged South Korea to increase soybean imports [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]

2025 年 10 月 17 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 截至 20251016，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 40.33 万吨(湿吨)，环比 下调 4.25%，同比上调 13.83%。 【市场状况分析】 10 月山东、河北等地区存在新增检修，烧碱供应压力不大。需求端，河北氧化铝厂集中采购烧碱，下 周随着省外订单的陆续发货，山东地区预期继续去库，短期山东市场现货偏强。从氧化铝行业看，氧化铝高 产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年 初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货源流转，但低利润的格局也会使 得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。考虑到未来可能减产装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期 对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下， ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 沥青：出货平缓 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,279 | 0.89% | 3,255 | -0.73% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,197 | 0.41% | 3,181 | -0.50% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2511 | 手 | 100,365 | (12,450) | 71,636 | (11,147) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 43,913 | 639 | 81,196 | (1,198) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 36370 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are supported by trading volume and are in a low - level oscillation with limited downside space [1]. - The trend strength of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuation is neutral, with a value of 0 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 44, 42, and 24 respectively compared to the previous day. PF11 - 12 increased by 2, PF12 - 01 increased by 18, and the main contract basis decreased by 42. - The main contract's open interest increased by 156,786 to 276,286, and the trading volume increased by 140,234 to 187,340. The production - sales ratio increased by 33% to 79%. The spot price in East China remained unchanged at 6,305 [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 34, 36, and 44 respectively compared to the previous day. PR11 - 12 decreased by 2, PR12 - 01 decreased by 8, and the main contract basis decreased by 16. - The main contract's open interest increased by 11,316 to 35,207, and the trading volume increased by 19,029 to 42,764. The spot price in East China increased by 20 to 5,650, and in South China increased by 30 to 5,680 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Futures prices oscillated upwards. Some trade discounts were reduced, and many traders held back sales due to low inventory. Factory quotes remained stable, and sales improved with an average production - sales ratio of 79% by 3:00 pm. Downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn quotes remained stable, but sales were average [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures prices rose, and some polyester bottle - chip factories raised prices by 20 - 50 yuan. Market trading was fair, and some factories raised quotes after increased trading volume in the afternoon. Orders from October to December were mainly traded at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some trade prices slightly lower at 5,560 - 5,590 yuan/ton ex - factory and slightly higher at 5,730 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory [2].

货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 白糖：巴西中南部食糖产量同比增加 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：-1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.85 | 0.18 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 34 | 2 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5770 | -10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -17 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5408 | 5 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 362 | -15 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西 9 月下半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 11%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴 西 9 月出口 325 万吨 ...

Report Date - The report is dated October 16, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - As stock index options approach expiration, the trading volume ratio of put options has decreased [2] Market Data Statistics Underlying Market Statistics - The closing price of the SSE 50 Index was 3019.20, up 17.85, with a trading volume of 6.341 billion hands, an increase of 0.03 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 3020.40 and 3021.33 respectively, with basis points of 1.20 and 2.14 [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4618.42, up 12.13, with a trading volume of 24.824 billion hands, a decrease of 3.654 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 4616.07 and 4604.13 respectively, with basis points of -2.36 and -14.29 [3] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7401.84, down 81.61, with a trading volume of 23.464 billion hands, a decrease of 1.021 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 7400.73 and 7295.07 respectively, with basis points of -1.10 and -106.77 [3] Options Market Statistics - The trading volume of SSE 50 Index options was 72,709, an increase of 17,701, with an open interest of 78,533, an increase of 858. The VL - PCR was 58.30%, and the OI - PCR was 82.83%. The maximum call and put open interests in the near - month were at strike prices of 3050 and 2900 respectively [3] - The trading volume of CSI 300 Index options was 203,367, an increase of 14,560, with an open interest of 200,887, a decrease of 259. The VL - PCR was 73.39%, and the OI - PCR was 97.07%. The maximum call and put open interests in the near - month were at strike prices of 4700 and 4500 respectively [3] - The trading volume of CSI 1000 Index options was 362,400, a decrease of 58,777, with an open interest of 302,815, an increase of 5121. The VL - PCR was 98.62%, and the OI - PCR was 96.70%. The maximum call and put open interests in the near - month were at strike prices of 7500 and 7200 respectively [3] Options Volatility Statistics Near - Month - The ATM - IV of SSE 50 Index options was 14.96%, an increase of 0.35%. The Skew was -3.35%, a decrease of 1.45%. The VIX was 18.74, an increase of 0.152 [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index options was 14.54%, a decrease of 0.69%. The Skew was -3.65%, a decrease of 0.48%. The VIX was 20.00, a decrease of 0.103 [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 1000 Index options was 19.27%, a decrease of 0.05%. The Skew was -4.18%, an increase of 2.21%. The VIX was 24.67, an increase of 0.708 [6] Next - Month - The ATM - IV of SSE 50 Index options was 16.42%, an increase of 0.36%. The Skew was -1.69%, an increase of 0.88% [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index options was 17.61%, a decrease of 0.10%. The Skew was -4.64%, a decrease of 0.18% [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 1000 Index options was 23.02%, an increase of 0.86%. The Skew was -7.62%, a decrease of 1.40% [6] Option Types Analysis SSE 50 Index Options - Multiple charts are provided, including the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skew chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term - structure chart [10][12] CSI 300 Index Options - Similar to SSE 50 Index options, multiple charts are presented, such as the main - contract volatility chart, the full - contract PCR chart, and the volatility cone chart [14][16] CSI 1000 Index Options - Relevant charts include the main - contract volatility chart, the full - contract PCR chart, and the volatility term - structure chart [19][23][25] SSE 50ETF Options - Charts cover the main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility cone [27][28][29] Huatai - Baorui 300ETF Options - There are main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility term - structure charts [31][33][36] Southern CSI 500ETF Options - The analysis includes main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility cone charts [41][42][45] Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options - Charts involve main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility term - structure [49][51][53] E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options - Main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility cone charts are provided [56][60][61] Harvest 300ETF Options - Relevant charts are main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility term - structure [63][65] Harvest CSI 500ETF Options - The analysis includes main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility cone charts [67][68][69] ChiNext ETF Options - Charts cover main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility term - structure [71][72][73] Shenzhen 100ETF Options - There are main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and volatility cone charts [75][77][78]

| 2025/10/16 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/9 | 2025/9/10 | 2025/10/16 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 133. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver is likely to experience a pull - back after a rally as spot contradictions ease [2][5]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories [2][9]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state [2][12]. - Lead price rebounds are restricted by increasing inventories [2][15]. - The price trend of tin is subject to macro - economic influences [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a consolidation phase; alumina's profit margins are being compressed; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level as macro - sentiment turns bearish; stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost at the bottom limiting downward flexibility [2][24]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to continue its short - term range - bound movement with a firm spot performance [2][27]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend; polysilicon's futures are showing strength and investors should focus on the content of today's meeting [2][31][32]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation [2][36]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may experience a slight correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][39]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations with cost providing bottom support [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations with expectations fluctuating [2][47][48]. - Log prices are oscillating repeatedly [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Data**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 960.34 with a daily increase of 2.27%, and the night - session closing price was 962.08 with a night - session increase of 1.39%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 11966 with a daily increase of 3.76%, and the night - session closing price was 12138.00 with a night - session increase of 3.97% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Gold ETF holdings increased by 1 to 1,022.60, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 310 to 15,422.61. SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,916 to 75,099 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 64,360 to 39,660,680 troy ounces. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32,643 to 1,030,429 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 4,559,793 to 515,632,550 troy ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [5][8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85260 with a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The closing price of LME copper 3M was 10,576 with a daily decrease of 0.08% [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 8,236 to 44,531 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, China's macro - economic data showed positive trends. In the industry, the investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months, and Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's copper ore imports in September were 258.7 million tons, and imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 48.5 million tons [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22015, down 0.92%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2949, down 2.09% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7172 to 65666 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 to 38350 tons [12]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary signaled a relaxation, and both sides' working levels maintained communication. China restated its stance on the tariff war [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17110, up 0.35%; the closing price of LME lead 3M was 1977, down 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead inventory increased by 1302 to 32007 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 8225 to 254775 tons [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, China's macro - economic data and the US economic situation from the Fed's Beige Book were reported [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 281,710, up 0.46%; the closing price of LME tin 3M was 35,380, up 0.31% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE tin inventory increased by 50 to 5,677 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 190 to 2,575 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The same set of macro - economic news about China and the US was reported [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20910, and the closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 2745. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2797, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20410 [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 64.20 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.90 million tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's CPI and PPI data showed positive trends, and new social financing and loan data were also released [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560 [24]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining company's over 148 - hectare mining area was taken over; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; some Indonesian mining companies were sanctioned; new regulations on mining plans were issued; and Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China [24][25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,720, and the closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,940 [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. The government issued an action plan for the "three - year doubling" of electric vehicle charging facilities, and China's power battery production, sales, and exports showed growth [29][30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,865 [32]. - **Inventory Changes**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 54.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.0 million tons [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The results of Xinjiang's 2025 incremental new - energy project mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [32]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 776.5 with a daily decrease of 0.70% [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [37]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 with a daily decrease of 0.85%, and the closing price of HC2601 was 3,212 with a daily decrease of 0.86% [39]. - **Industry News**: In early October, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and steel export and import data in August were also reported [39][41]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5376, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5746 [44]. - **Industry News**: Market quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were released, and a large steel mill's tender inquiries for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were reported [44]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1151 with a daily decrease of 0.2%, and the closing price of J2601 was 1642 with a daily decrease of 0.8% [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [49]. Log - The price of logs is oscillating repeatedly, but no detailed price or trading data are provided [2][50].

【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22015 | -0.92% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2949 | -2.09% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 124266 | -41 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 19272 | 6240 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 89912 | -5282 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 223801 | 4285 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -50 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 115 | 26 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | -60 | -5 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/吨） | | | | 天津 0# 锌升贴水 | -20 | 25 | 锌锭现货进口盈亏 | -347 ...

2025年10月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：偏弱震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：震荡整理 | 11 | | 氧化铝：利润压缩 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 10 月 16 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...