Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, upstream production is resuming, and the idea is to short at high prices [1]. - For polysilicon, market news is fermenting again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,640 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 380 yuan compared to T - 5 and an increase of 145 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 210,531 lots, and the open interest was 176,563 lots. The closing price of PS2511 was 50,765 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 595 yuan compared to T - 1 and 615 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 201,311 lots, and the open interest was 84,987 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +810 yuan/ton. The spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) was +1,285 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to T - 1 and 150 yuan compared to T - 5. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 5 and 3,550 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,629.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 803.5 yuan compared to T - 5. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 16.8 million tons. The industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon futures was 25.4 million tons. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 24.0 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,725 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 1,140 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - The International Energy Agency's "Renewable Energy 2025" report predicts that despite challenges, global renewable energy installed capacity will grow strongly in the next 5 years, reaching twice the increment of the previous 5 years. Solar photovoltaic will drive the growth, accounting for about 80% of the increase in global renewable energy installed capacity. Wind power will be the second - largest contributor, and other renewable energy technologies will also play important roles [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-10-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 商务部连发四则公告对稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制 观点分享： 10 月 9 日，商务部发布了两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，分别对境外相关 稀土物项、稀土相关技术实施出口管制；并联合海关总署明确对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅 料、钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。上述出口管制 将于 11 月 8 日正式实施。稀土相关物项是本轮出口管制的重点。商务部新闻发言人指出， 稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性，对其实施出口管制是国际通行做法。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 白银 | ★★★★ | 白银：昨日白银价格大涨，伦敦银最高冲破 50 美元，达到 51.221 美元，创出历史新高，且 相较 COMEX 出现大幅升水。主要原因在于海外现货紧俏，自 8 月以来，白银被纳入关键矿 产清单后，将面临潜在的 232 条款关税调查，最高可达 50%的进口关税。cmx-lbma 价差骤 然 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,072 | -3.89% | 4,061 | -0.27% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,978 | -4.35% | 3,985 | 0.18% | | | PL2601 | 6,210 | -1.74% | 6,204 | -0.10% | | | PL2602 | 6,252 | -1.91% | 6,250 | -0.03% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 70,374 | -3978 | 66,864 | 1964 | | | PG2512 | 31,980 | 12669 | 54,225 | 7818 | | | PL2601 | 4,594 | 1598 | 12,716 | 616 | | | PL2602 | 28 ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡：加速上行 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：冲击 50 新高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities in the black series: - Iron ore: Bullish consolidation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range consolidation, with attention on the electric - arc furnace production cut rhythm [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range consolidation, with a strong market wait - and - see atmosphere [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range consolidation with fluctuating expectations [2][16][17] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][19] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series commodities. It believes that different commodities are affected by different factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and industry policies, resulting in different price trends and market characteristics. For example, iron ore is supported by macro - expectations, while rebar and hot - rolled coil need to focus on the production cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (1.28%). The positions of I2601 increased by 12,200 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 2 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,096 yuan/ton and 3,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.19%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%) respectively. The positions of RB2601 and HC2601 increased. Spot prices generally rose, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, China's industrial enterprise profits increased. The weekly data of steel products showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. For example, in the week of October 8, the production of rebar decreased by 3.62 million tons, and the inventory increased by 23.96 million tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures showed fluctuations. For example, the price of SF2511 decreased by 22 yuan/ton, and the price of SM2511 increased by 26 yuan/ton. Spot prices also changed, with ferrosilicon prices generally decreasing [12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were affected by factors such as electricity prices and steel procurement. The export volume of South African manganese ore in August decreased month - on - month [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 38 yuan/ton (3.4%) and 31 yuan/ton (1.9%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it had never issued or authorized any "forced production cut" or "joint price increase" notices or initiatives [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.8%, and the trading volume increased by 191.8%. Spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties were relatively stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 9 | | 锡：加速上行 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复 ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）印尼矿业部长巴利勒·拉哈达利亚周三(2025-7-2)表示，印尼计划将采矿配额期限从目前的三年 缩短至一年，以改善该行业的治理并更好地控制煤炭和矿石供应。 2）印尼镍矿开采商协会 (APNI) 透露，政府批准的 2025 年工作计划和预算 (RKAB) 产量为 3.64 亿吨。这高于 2024 年 3.19 亿吨的目标。 3）据东方财富网，印尼某镍 ...

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：B50路测提前，品种间偏强运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆震荡运行，豆油难打开新高度 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡上行 | 7 | | 棉花：新疆籽棉成交价格企稳 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货弱势运行 | 11 | | 生猪：现货底部未现，近月升水偏大 | 12 | | 花生：供应压力仍存 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 棕榈油：B50 路测提前，品种间偏强运行 豆油：美豆震荡运行，豆油难打开新高度 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,570 | 涨跌幅 3.71% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,596 | 涨跌幅 0.27% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 集运指数（欧线）：2-4 正套轻仓入场 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,119.9 | -0.20% | 15,562 | 21,030 | -3,752 | 0.74 | | 0.57 | | | EC2512 | 1,688.0 | -1.81% | 41,507 | 24,222 | 3,451 | 1.71 | | 0.74 | | | EC2602 | 1,406.0 | -13.65% | 12,789 | 8,743 | 209 | 1.46 | | 0.48 | | | EC2510 - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures has been oscillating strongly since listing, with a rising center of gravity, but the trading volume and open interest indicate low activity. As the first batch of warehouse receipts are successfully registered and the contracts enter continuous delivery, market activity is expected to gradually increase [3][9][29]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of cast aluminum alloy. With the year - end production rush in the automotive industry, the seasonal performance of cast aluminum alloy in the fourth quarter may be stronger. The cancellation of tax - refund policies and the persistent tight supply of scrap aluminum will support prices. The price of cast aluminum alloy generally follows the price of aluminum and has some upward price elasticity [3][29]. - Although there are potential short - selling logics in the market, most of them are long - term variables, and some have been fully priced in by the market, having a relatively small impact on the current price. In the short term, considering the cost logic and bullish drivers, the downside space is limited, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered, with an expected price range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4][30]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 AD Market Review Since Listing - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures has been oscillating strongly with a rising center of gravity, but the activity is low. As of September 30, 2025, the weighted contract open interest was about 20,000 lots, and the trading volume dropped from nearly 58,000 lots at the beginning to 3,000 lots. The main reason is that the initial main contract AD2511 had a long time to delivery, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment [9]. 3.2 Core Bullish Logic 3.2.1 Persistent Tight Supply of Scrap Aluminum - **Domestic**: The growth of domestic scrap aluminum supply is limited, with a significant gap between production and demand. In 2025, the supply growth rate of new and old scrap aluminum is in the 3 - 4% range, while the production capacity growth rate of cast aluminum alloy is about 10%, and that of processed aluminum products is in the 5 - 10% range. The scrap aluminum market is a seller's market, and when aluminum prices fall, suppliers are reluctant to sell, tightening supply [12][13]. - **Overseas**: The US has increased import tariffs on aluminum products, attracting a large amount of scrap aluminum from the EU and other regions, intensifying the global imbalance between supply and demand. The EU is evaluating the possibility of imposing export tariffs on scrap aluminum, which may affect Asian countries' imports. Southeast Asian countries are tightening scrap aluminum regulations, and Thailand's suspension of issuing recycling factory licenses may reduce scrap aluminum exports to China [15][16][18]. 3.2.2 Impact of Tax - Refund Policy Cancellation - The cancellation of local tax - refund policies will increase the tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises by about 3%, raising production costs by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. Some enterprises may face losses, and the cost is difficult to pass on in the short term [20][24]. - Scrap recycling will become more difficult, and smelting may face production cuts. Enterprises in concentrated areas like Anhui and Jiangxi rely on external scrap sources. After the policy cancellation, they may need to raise purchase prices, further increasing costs [24]. - The demand structure for scrap aluminum will change, with an increased demand for invoiced scrap. Market supervision is tightening, and enterprises' demand for invoiced scrap will increase, making scrap procurement more difficult [24]. - The industry consolidation will accelerate, promoting healthy competition. Small and medium - sized enterprises with insufficient funds may be cleared, and industry concentration will increase. Enterprises may also transfer production capacity to areas with concentrated scrap aluminum supply to reduce costs [25]. 3.2.3 Seasonal Improvement in Demand - About 70% of cast aluminum alloy is used in the automotive industry, especially traditional fuel vehicles. As the automotive industry enters the year - end production rush in the fourth quarter, a positive feedback loop of price - cost - price increase may occur. The increase in special treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement will also boost automotive consumption [26][27]. 3.3 Summary and Strategy Outlook - The short - term strategy is to consider long positions on dips, with an expected price range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, as the cost logic is valid, and there are short - term bullish drivers [30].