Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for tin, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively bullish outlook [5]. 2) Core Viewpoint - The price of tin is accelerating upward [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 287,090 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.75%, and the night - session closing price was 287,400 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.82%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 36,820 dollars, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly and the open interest increased [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,851 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,390 tons, a decrease of 115 tons from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200 yuan, an increase of 7,000 yuan from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 283,600 yuan, an increase of 12,500 yuan from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 57 dollars, an increase of 8 dollars from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 7,000 yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars also increased [2]. Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials. - The US government shutdown remains unresolved, with the Senate rejecting the appropriation bill seven times. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release September CPI data during the government shutdown. - The US provided 20 billion dollars in financial support to Argentina, and the peso rose. - China's National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to regulate price competition. - The Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - Microsoft predicts that the shortage of data center supply will continue until 2026. - Altman said that OpenAI will have more major deals after those with Nvidia, Oracle, and AMD [3][4].

2025 年 10 月 10 日 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 美联储理事巴尔表示，美联储在进一步调整政策立场时应当保持谨慎，因为物价上涨速度仍然过快。（华 尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17115 | 1.03% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2004.5 | -0.02% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 40199 | -5406 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3716 | -1421 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 41077 | -1556 | 伦铅持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that lithium carbonate is experiencing accelerated inventory reduction and is in an oscillatory state. It presents detailed fundamental data of lithium carbonate and relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 73,340, with a change of 540 compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 361,093, and the open interest is 229,022. For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 73,440, the trading volume is 134,679, and the open interest is 183,404. The warehouse receipt volume is 42,379 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 843, and that of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,835. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 78,550, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) is 9,450. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640, and that of ternary materials also shows different price levels and changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from last week. The industry inventory is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons from last week [1]. - **Chilean Exports**: In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 13% and 6% respectively. The export average price is 8,704 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 15% and 2% respectively. It also exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE) to China [1][3]. - **Policy News**: The three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjusted the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 to 2027, raising the technical threshold. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2025 年 10 月 10 日 短纤：短期低位震荡，趋势偏弱 瓶片：短期低位震荡，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 瓶片：上游聚酯原料期货先跌后反弹，早盘聚酯瓶片工厂报价多下调 50-80 元不等，午后部分聚酯瓶片 工厂报价上调 40-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交尚可。10-12 月订单多成交在 5720-5800 元/吨出厂不等， 略低 5690-5710 元/吨出厂附近，少量略高 5810-5850 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：-1；瓶片趋势强度：-1(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Report's Core View - The spot bottom of live pigs has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [1] - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live pig spot price is 11,330 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; and Guangdong's is 12,060 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,595 yuan/ton (down 700 yuan), 12,165 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan), and 11,970 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 50,927 lots (down 7,793 lots) and the open interest is 58,336 lots (down 17,117 lots); for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 40,716 lots (up 3,662 lots) and the open interest is 84,790 lots (up 8,369 lots); for the 2603 contract, the trading volume is 16,259 lots (up 1,932 lots) and the open interest is 57,549 lots (up 4,944 lots) [2] - **Price Differences**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 265 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan), - 835 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan), and - 640 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan) respectively; the 11 - 1 spread is - 570 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread is 195 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan) [2]

2025 年 10 月 10 日 花生：供应压力仍存 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 花生基本面数据 | | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | 8,060 | 昨日价格 | 价格变动 -440 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | | | | | | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | 8,100 | | 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | 7,800 | | -200 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | 8,700 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | | | | PK510 | 元/吨 | 7,630 | | -0.75 | | | | PK511 | 元/吨 | 7,704 | | -0.85 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK510 | 手 | 8 2 | -1707 | 318 | ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,375 | -2.63% | 3,350 | -0.74% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,325 | -2.72% | 3,308 | -0.51% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 109,080 | (43,041) | 107,006 | (25,859) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 51,283 | (3,626) | 83,597 | (8,100) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 44430 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日 ...

| | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,570 | 涨跌幅 3.71% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,596 | 涨跌幅 0.27% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | | 2.36% | | 0.50% | | | | | 8,332 | | 8,374 | | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 10,248 | 2.03% | 10,197 | -0.50% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,594 | 1.06% | 4,595 | 0.09% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.97 | -0.99% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 509,596 | 110994 | 379,054 | 46,907 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 336,990 | 136,756 | 506,255 | -8,109 | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | 209,869 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized, while the spot price of cotton in 2025/26 in Xinjiang has slightly declined compared to before the holiday. The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, and the order situation of weaving enterprises is not good after the holiday. ICE cotton futures fell due to lack of fundamental support, a weak technical pattern, a stronger dollar, and falling crude oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,295 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.61% increase, and 13380 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.64% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,545 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.70% increase and 19755 yuan/ton in the night session with a 1.07% increase. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 64.46 cents/pound yesterday with a - 0.74% decrease. The trading volume of CF2601 was 333,284 hands, a decrease of 79,542 compared to the previous day; the trading volume of CY2511 was 2,815 hands, a decrease of 1,999 compared to the previous day [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,030, a decrease of 51 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast was 11, a decrease of 11. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,492 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.43 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent compared to the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spinning enterprises' willingness to purchase cotton spot is average, mostly buying as they use. The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized, with the normal moisture purchase price ranging from 6 to 6.2 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. The spot fixed - price quotes of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season have slightly declined compared to before the holiday [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. During the long holiday, market transactions were weak, and cotton yarn prices were stable with a downward trend. Some spinning enterprises reduced prices for promotion. After the holiday, more weaving enterprises resumed production, but most reported that the in - hand order situation was average, and there was a lack of new orders after the holiday [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday. On the one hand, there was a lack of fundamental news to boost ICE cotton, and the technical pattern was weak. On the other hand, it was affected by a stronger dollar and falling crude oil prices [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, upstream production is resuming, and the idea is to short at high prices [1]. - For polysilicon, market news is fermenting again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,640 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 380 yuan compared to T - 5 and an increase of 145 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 210,531 lots, and the open interest was 176,563 lots. The closing price of PS2511 was 50,765 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 595 yuan compared to T - 1 and 615 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 201,311 lots, and the open interest was 84,987 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +810 yuan/ton. The spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) was +1,285 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to T - 1 and 150 yuan compared to T - 5. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 5 and 3,550 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,629.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 803.5 yuan compared to T - 5. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 16.8 million tons. The industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon futures was 25.4 million tons. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 24.0 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,725 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 1,140 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - The International Energy Agency's "Renewable Energy 2025" report predicts that despite challenges, global renewable energy installed capacity will grow strongly in the next 5 years, reaching twice the increment of the previous 5 years. Solar photovoltaic will drive the growth, accounting for about 80% of the increase in global renewable energy installed capacity. Wind power will be the second - largest contributor, and other renewable energy technologies will also play important roles [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].