Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 167, 2025) [1] - Release Date: September 30, 2025 [3] Investment Strategy - Suggest gap enterprises to purchase in batches at low prices before the end of October [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected in October, but signs may appear in Q3 [4] Core Logic - From September, key emission units will formulate trading plans, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation quotas and pressuring carbon prices [5] - By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and quota release nears completion, carbon prices may rise [5] Market Data CEA | Type | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 65.00 | 59.00 | 60.00 | 52.48 | 53.38 | | Price Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -2.11% | -3.52% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | -6.00 | 1.00 | -7.52 | 0.90 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59.16 | 58.46 | | Single - Bidding Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.75 | 331.78 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.19 | 94.74 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.55 | | [6] CCER - Transaction Average Price: 68.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.80% - Transaction Amount: 204,000 yuan - Trading Volume: 3,000 tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 3,187,100 tons [8] Today's Market - CEA: The decline of the main target widened. The listing volume was 1.049 million tons, and the bulk volume was 2.546 million tons [11] - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 3,000 tons, and the transaction average price was 68.00 yuan/ton (-10.80%) [11]

印尼铜矿扰动，铜价走势坚挺 季先飞 国泰君安期货首席分析师 / 有 色 及 贵 金 属 组 联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业证书号： Z 0 0 1 2 6 9 1 日期： 2025 年 1 0 月 0 9 日 观点：Grasberg铜矿泥石流事件冲击精铜供应，全球精铜供需矛盾将显现 ◆ 印尼铜矿占全球铜矿资源总储量的3.15%，是全球第八大铜矿资源国。印尼矿业法、修正案和新矿业法的演进，表明印尼矿业发展的制度在不断完 善，促进国内矿业投资和经济的发展。 ◆ 印尼铜矿投资环境不断改善，有利于吸引外资的净流入。同时，印尼铜矿储量和开采规模巨大、大部分是露天开采且铜矿中含有丰富的黄金，所 以铜矿开采现金成本偏低，也有利于吸引外资。自由港麦克莫兰铜金公司资本开支（CAPEX）自2018年开始出现上升。 ◆ Grasberg铜矿发生泥石流事件，Grasberg矿区的采矿作业自9月8日起已暂停。PTFI已开始进行调查，以确定此次事件的起因，预计调查将在2025 年底前完成。初步评估表明，随着维修工作的完成以及分阶段的重启和生产的开始，这些影响可能会导致近期（2025年第四季度和2026年）的重 大生产推迟。有可能在2027 ...

| | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 21825 | 0.11% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3042 | 1.25% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 162377 | -18168 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 13813 | 4405 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 127778 | -14622 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 224342 | 1685 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -30 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 67.56 | 17.56 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | -50 | 0 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/吨） | | | | 天津 0# 锌升贴水 | -40 | -5 | 锌锭现货进口盈亏 | -317 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价 差继续收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨 跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/晓 | 3.098 | | 3.47% | 3.044 | 0.63% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 3.007 | | 0. 63% | 2,995 | -2.03% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3.450 | | 0. 00% | 3.450 | 0.00% | | | | LU2511 | 元/晓 | 3,394 | | 0.00% | 3.402 | -2. 30% | | | 期货 | | | 昨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains the rating, but the specific rating is not clearly stated [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, spot prices, industry news, and production and trade data [1][2][4] According to the Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a daily gain of 1.65%, and 4,560 ringgit/ton at night with a gain of 0.33%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a gain of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [1] - **Base Difference**: The base difference of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The price spread between the rapeseed and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton, the soybean and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Bio - diesel Policy**: Indonesia is moving towards a B50 biodiesel policy, planning to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy will require 2,010 million liters of palm - based bio - fuel annually, compared with 1,560 million liters for the current B40 policy [2][3] - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Data**: From September 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were estimated to be 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month. Production was estimated to decrease by 2.42% (SPPOMA data) or 2.35% (MPOA data). The estimated inventory in September was 215 tons, a 2.5% decrease from August [4] - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Exports**: From January to August 2025, Indonesia exported 16.2 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, with 2.56 million tons exported in August alone [4] - **India's Oil Imports**: In September, India's soybean oil imports increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, while total edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% to 1.61 million tons. Sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% to 272,000 tons [5] - **US Crop Forecasts**: S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of US soybean average yield to 53.0 bushels/acre and corn average yield to 185.5 bushels/acre [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Forecast**: StoneX predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [5] - **Argentina's Labor Issue**: Argentina's government suspended the planned indefinite strike of oil workers' unions in processing plants [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval [7]

2025国庆&中秋节后营日展! 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参 考。本内容难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请 勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不构成具体业务的推介,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税 务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息 的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险,不应凭借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任。除非另有说 明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经本公司事先书面许可,任何单位或个人不得以任 何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 品种代码 | 品种 | 假期内信息收集及节后观点展望 | 假期内巴西9月出口食糖325万吨（同比减少16%） 巴西中南部压榨进度再度加快,甘蔗压榨 | 总量同比减少3.68%,食糖总产量仅减少0.08%;印度季风降水量较LP ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - PX and PTA are rated as weak in the medium term; MEG is recommended for a 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [1] Group 2: Core Views - After the holiday, PX is expected to make up for the decline and operate weakly; MEG is expected to open with a decline and enter a pattern of inventory accumulation at ports; PTA is expected to open with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance [16][17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - For futures, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC on the previous day were 6570, 4594, 4207, 6276, and 479.7 respectively, with corresponding price drops of -100, -58, -17, -60, and -12.9, and declines of -1.50%, -1.25%, -0.40%, -0.95%, and -2.62% [2] - For spot goods, the previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 803.83 dollars/ton, 4545 yuan/ton, 4275 yuan/ton, 585.25 dollars/ton, and 67.09 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - For spot processing fees, the previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 208.75 dollars/ton, 210.35 yuan/ton, 255.45 yuan/ton, 115.28 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 dollars/ton respectively [2] Market Dynamics - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan shut down two 200,000 - ton/year PX production lines at its Chita plant from mid - September to mid - December, while other production lines in other regions of Japan are operating normally [2][3] - On October 7, Platts' assessments of Asian paraxylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea were $803.83/mt and $782.83/mt respectively, both up $2.50/mt day over day [5] - On October 7, crude oil futures were little changed in Asian afternoon trading after two consecutive sessions of higher settlements, and reports of a drone strike on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery supported prices [6][7] - As of the week ended October 3, US crude oil stocks likely increased by 2.84 million barrels to around 419.4 million barrels, 4.7% below the five - year average [8][9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [15] Views and Suggestions - During the holiday, affected by the cost - end crude oil price, PX's valuation fluctuated and rebounded after a decline. The trading was light during the holiday, and it is expected to make up for the decline on the first day after the holiday [16] - During the holiday, the Asian MEG CFR China transaction price dropped by 2 dollars/ton. After the holiday, it is expected to open with a decline, and the port enters a pattern of inventory accumulation [16] - During the holiday, the PTA FOB China price dropped from 608 dollars/ton to 606 dollars/ton. After the holiday, it is expected to open with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance [17]

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

2025 年 10 月 9 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货价格将再创上市以来 新高 铜、豆油、棕榈油期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4640 和 4680 点，支撑位 4604 和 4571 点；IH2512 阻力位 3000 和 3010 点，支撑位 2976 和 2970 点；IC2512 阻力位 7350 和 7400 点，支撑位 7266 和 7221 点；IM2512 阻力位 7459 和 75 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铜：供应扰动，推升价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 83,110 | 0.90% | 83680 | 0.69% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,701 | 3.93% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 156,069 | 17,609 | 213,859 | 67 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 17,830 | -2,923 | 321,000 | 2,100 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 26,823 | 1,220 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 139,425 | -3,975 | 5.95% | -0.79% | | | ...