Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook (★★★)**: Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn [1][4][6][7] - **Slightly Positive (★☆☆)**: Live pigs, eggs [1][8][9] - **Neutral or Unclear (ななな)**: Soybean No.1, soybean meal, rapeseed meal [1][2][3][6] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand changes, policies, and international market trends. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and control risks [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean main contract price has fallen from its recent high, and Inner Mongolia will continue to auction regulated reserves. The short - term supply pattern of imported soybeans is changing from tight to loose, with large arrivals expected from May to July. The spot price of soybeans and the basis have declined, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal has also dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of increased soybean arrivals on the basis [2][3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US soybean oil has risen strongly due to the Advanced Biofuels Association's call to increase the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) to 5.75 billion gallons in 2026 and the rising price of RIN D4. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil have followed the overseas price increase. The palm oil production increases in the second and third quarters, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes. With the approaching May Day holiday, investors should control volatility risks [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures have followed the decline of soybean - related futures. China has increased the import of Indian rapeseed meal, and the domestic rapeseed crushing rate and rapeseed meal output have decreased. Rapeseed meal demand is mainly for some aquatic products, and soybean meal can form a certain substitution. The long - term supply shortage may be alleviated by new trade flows. The rapeseed - related market is mainly volatile, and investors should pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] Corn - The Politburo meeting pointed out that China needs to further consolidate the foundation for economic recovery, and incremental reserve policies will be introduced according to the situation. The remaining supply in front of Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the wheat drought has intensified with rising prices. Traders have different views on the future market. Corn futures may decline in the medium - term, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] Live Pigs - After a sharp decline, live pig futures have rebounded slightly with reduced positions, while the spot price has generally fallen slightly. The number of fertile sows has recovered, and the number of newborn piglets in March reached a new high since May 2023. The expected high - pressure on pig slaughter in September and the increasing slaughter weight, especially for fat pigs, may lead to a decline in the spot price [8] Eggs - The egg futures have rebounded with reduced positions, while the spot price has continued to fall. The previous price rebound due to raw material price fluctuations and low - price replenishment demand has ended. The in - production inventory in March continued to rise, and the high enthusiasm for chick replenishment in March will lead to increased production capacity before the end of August. A bearish view is taken on the long - term egg price [9]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年04月25日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价震荡, 布伦特06合约小幅上涨0.54%。特朗普谈及苦俄乌协议无法在最后期限前完 成,俄罗斯或面临新一轮制裁,周六将在阿曼举行的第三轮伊核会谈亦将牵动市场情绪。考虑到 OPEC+充裕的剩余产能及增产弹性,美国石油制裁对油价的支撑具有短期性,贸易战对经济增速、 油品需求的压制以及OPEC+的增产行为均有待演绎,我们认为油价前期反弹空间有限,临近震荡区 间上沿下行风险将再次放大。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。 美国公布周虎初诗矢业金人数22.2万人维持低位符合预期。特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案,贸易政策的反复以及各方谈判进展将继续牵动市场神经。美元信用危机和全球政经 局势不确定性支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势,短期行情极致化演绎后价格波动放大,谨慎参与等待 调整后布局机会。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜走高,美盘铜价差继续吸引实货物流,美伦价差接近1500美元。美国3月耐用品订单连续 三个月上升，且增幅受飞机订单提振环增9.2%。沪铜跟涨,周内现货及升水给予支撑,SMM社库成 至18.17万吨。建议2507合约7 ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月24日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆★ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【LPG】 对伊朗制裁和关税缓和预期下PG市场转而走强,但当前两院对石脑油的折价在反弹后仍有成本优势,海外化工需求 或有提升。PDH陆续进入停工,后续开工率仍有下滑趋势,码头下旬集中到岸,进口气阶段性过剩,国内市场相对 承压。原油带动下盘面基盖收缩,但一步上行动力有限，近月合约相对震荡偏强。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载清注明出处 1 全球重油偏紧格局暂难改,南亚国家夏季燃油发电旺季利好雷求,截至 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating short - term balance and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Timber: One star, indicating a driving force for price movement but poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: White star, indicating short - term balance and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a driving force for price movement but poor operability [1] Core Views - The markets of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade policies, and weather conditions. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, mainly including waiting and seeing, holding short - term positions, and maintaining a bearish view [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable domestic cotton spot trading and firm basis. Cotton yarn spinning enterprises sold in small orders, and prices were stable to weak. China imported 7.37 million tons of cotton in March, a year - on - year decrease of 32.33 million tons. Clothing sales data showed good domestic demand but large external demand challenges. The focus is on Sino - US trade relations. Trump's statement on tariff cuts may drive prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated overnight. Brazil's 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season has started. Due to less rainfall in the first quarter, the yield per unit may decline, but the high sugar - alcohol price ratio may keep the sugar - making ratio high, so sugar production is uncertain. Falling oil prices are negative for US sugar. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is strong, with the market focusing on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. With the approaching of May Day, purchasing enthusiasm was high, and prices in some areas increased. The flower buds this year are large, and the impact of the low - temperature on April 12 is not significant, but the risk of poor fruit - setting exists. The market is focused on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU fluctuated, NR fell, and BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices continued to fall, butadiene rubber prices rose slightly, and butadiene import prices fell. Global natural rubber supply is increasing, and some domestic butadiene rubber plants' operating rates have changed. Domestic tire operating rates declined, and inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased slightly, and butadiene social inventory decreased while upstream inventory increased. With the approaching of May Day, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to wait and see for RU&NR, expect a rebound for BR, and hold cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices were stable in some areas and fell in others. As of April 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.106 billion tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase. Import inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The short - term trend is affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable. New Zealand's log shipments are entering the off - season, but the impact on arrival volume will take time. Downstream demand is good recently but the peak season is ending. Inventory pressure still exists. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated with a bearish outlook, suggesting a negative view on the market [16] 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of live hog futures on April 24 is reasonable considering the ample supply, decreasing industry costs, and the profit space in the futures market. The market should be viewed with a bearish mindset, and attention should be paid to the release of supply pressure and the decline range of spot prices [2][16] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Performance of Live Hog Futures - On April 24, live hog futures opened and then quickly declined. The main 2509 contract showed a large negative candlestick with a long lower shadow, and the 2511 contract also dropped significantly, with an intraday low of 13,685 yuan/ton, approaching the previous lows [2] - Since April, live hog futures first had an upward trend. One reason was the increase in the price of soybean meal, a feed raw material, due to the Sino - US tariff conflict in early April, which drove up the futures price. Another reason was the impact of hog holding for weight gain and secondary fattening, which made the spot price oscillate strongly and the futures price repair the basis upward [2] 3.2 Supply - Side Indicators 3.2.1 Sow Inventory - Official data shows that the number of sows capable of reproduction continued to rise until the end of December last year, indicating that the theoretical hog slaughter volume will be on an upward trend until the end of October this year. Steel Union data shows that the sow inventory recovered last year and remained relatively stable in the first quarter of this year [6] 3.2.2 Number of New - born Piglets - Since last year, the number of new - born piglets has generally been on the rise. Although it declined in the fourth quarter of last year, it has returned to an upward trend since the first quarter of this year. In March this year, it reached a level close to the high in 2023. The piglets born in the first quarter correspond to the hog slaughter from July to September, so the 9 - month contract faces greater slaughter pressure [9] - The hog slaughter volume in the second quarter may be affected by the decline in the number of new - born piglets in the fourth quarter of last year, but the weight gain and supply shift caused by hog holding and secondary fattening from February to April this year can supplement the supply in the second quarter [9] 3.3 Impact of Hog Holding and Secondary Fattening - The previous hog holding for weight gain has led to a continuous increase in the industry's average weight, and the current average weight has reached the second - highest level in the past five years. The core reason for continuous hog holding and secondary fattening after the Spring Festival this year is the positive price difference between fat and standard hogs, which is an opportunistic behavior to earn high premiums for large hogs [11] - The price difference between fat and standard hogs has been repaired from the extreme high in February to near zero, and it is expected that the momentum for hog holding and secondary fattening will weaken, and the slaughter rhythm will accelerate [11] 3.4 Cost and Profit Situation - The industry's breeding cost is still decreasing. Taking Muyuan Co., Ltd., a leading self - breeding and self - raising enterprise, as an example, the full cost of hog breeding continued to decline, reaching 12.5 yuan/kg in March 2025. According to listed company announcements, the current industry average cost is about 12 - 13 yuan/kg [14] - Since last year, the profit from piglet sales has been positive, which is consistent with the continuous recovery of sow production capacity and is significantly different from the situation in 2023 when continuous losses in piglet sales led to a reduction in sow production capacity and a potential supply gap in 2024 [15]

| | | 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面下跌。 供应端，铁矿全球发运量正常波动，未来存在一定季节性增长预期，国内到猪星处于年内均值水平以上， 港口库存短期或有所企稳回升。需求端，终端需求高位回落，钢厂存有一定利润，铁水仍有继续复产的空间。海外贸易争端又 出现反复,国内市场对于4月底重要会议前后出台刺激政策存有期待,短期铁矿价格受到宏观影响的扰动仍然较大。我们预计铁 矿整体走势震荡为主,短期价格存有一定支撑,中期则要注意铁水见顶回落的压力。 | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年04月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ななな | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z00160 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Corn, Soybean Meal [1] - **Bearish**: Hog, Egg [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - The supply of imported soybeans is expected to shift from tight to loose around mid - May. Traders should focus on policy and supply - demand changes and control risks during the May Day holiday [2][3][4] - The long - term supply of rapeseed meal may improve, and the short - term market will be volatile. Corn may decline in the medium term. Hog prices may fall as supply increases. Egg prices are likely to be bearish in the long run [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean futures hit a new high. The auction of Inner Mongolia's regulated soybean reserves had a high transaction rate. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to ease around mid - May [2] Soybean Meal - The spot basis of soybean meal is rising, and the May contract is stronger than the September contract due to tight supply. The supply is expected to ease around mid - May [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil are in a volatile rebound. The supply of soybeans is expected to improve around mid - May. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures are affected by the soybean market. China has increased the import of Indian rapeseed meal, and the domestic rapeseed meal production is decreasing. The short - term market will be volatile [6] Corn - Corn prices have risen, but the supply at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the downstream product prices are not rising well. The wheat price is rising. The mid - term trend may be downward [7] Hog - Hog futures and spot prices are falling. The supply is expected to increase as the number of sows and piglets recovers, and the weight of hogs is rising. The price may decline further [8] Egg - Egg futures and spot prices are falling. The egg - laying hen inventory is rising, and the chick - replenishment in March was high. The egg price is bearish in the long run [9]

贵金属日报 2025年04月24日 操作评级 刘冬博 高级分析师 贵金属 女女女 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 隔夜美国4月SPGI制造业PMI50.7好于预期和前值,金价继续回落。美方释放关税政策缓和信号以及特朗普称 未计划解雇鲍威尔安抚市场情绪。姜元信用危机和全球政治经济不确定性将支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势, 但短期行情极致化演绎后价格波动如期放大,谨慎参与观望为主。 对贸易紧张局势缓和的希望,以及特朗普总统放弃解雇美联储主席的威胁,令投资者感到宽慰。美元兑主要 货币周三出现反弹，美元指数周三上涨0.94%，日线录得两连阳，收报99.90。据路字特,一位知情人士周三 透露,特朗普政府正在考虑降低对亚洲大国进口商品的关税,并补充说任何行动都不会单方面进行。贸易战 缓和的希望提振了美元兑欧元和瑞士法郎的汇率。另外，美国财政部长贝森特也表示,贸易紧张局势可能会 缓和,任何与亚洲大国达成的贸易协议都可能大幅削减关税。总体而言,人们对大国之间可能进行谈判感到 非常欣慰,我们正看到这一趋势在市场上产生重大影响。 本报告版权属于国投期 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (implies a slight upward trend) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (suggests a clear upward trend) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (indicates a clear upward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (shows a clear upward trend) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (represents a clear upward trend) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (demonstrates a clear upward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (signifies a clear upward trend) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (implies a clear upward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (suggests a clear upward trend) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (indicates a clear upward trend) [1] - Glass: ★☆★ (suggests a complex trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (implies a slight upward trend) [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and seasonal patterns. Some products are expected to have short - term price rebounds, while others will be in a state of shock adjustment [2][3][6] Summary by Product Methanol - Many methanol units are under maintenance, domestic capacity utilization is lowered. Before the May Day holiday, downstream purchasing demand increases in the inland market, but the apparent demand in the coastal area weakens. The inventory of production enterprises remains low, and the port inventory decreases significantly. Although the supply is expected to increase, the low inventory provides some support, and the short - term trend is mainly shock adjustment [2] Urea - A new round of urea demand is expected to start around May Day. Currently, the demand is seasonally weak, but as the agricultural demand peak approaches, the short - term market is expected to stabilize and then rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 1740 yuan/ton [3] Polyolefins - The futures of polyethylene and polypropylene are in shock consolidation. The downstream peak season of polyethylene is ending, but the supply pressure is expected to ease due to reduced imports and domestic unit maintenance. For polypropylene, more units are planned for maintenance in late April, and there is a risk of temporary shutdowns [4] Styrene - The styrene futures are oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. The supply is expected to decrease due to more unit shutdowns for maintenance, and the demand is also expected to decline. The price is in low - level shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the macro and cost factors [6] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA are in shock. Trade frictions affect the terminal demand. If the trade situation eases, there may be a price rebound. The short - fiber may rebound if the trade situation and domestic orders improve. The production of bottle chips continues to increase, and the industry profit is low [7][8] Chlor - alkali - PVC continues its sluggish trend with high upstream inventory and low - level operation of production. The domestic demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is weak, with high inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass is weak, with manufacturers accumulating inventory. The cost may rise, and the decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the support around 1100 yuan/ton. Soda ash closes up, with high inventory pressure. There are rumors of unit maintenance, and the price may rebound in the short - term but is in an oversupply situation in the long - term [10]

综合晨报 2025年04月24日 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 4月氧化铝厂集中检修阶段性影响产量，近日现货成交价在2900元附近暂时企稳，但多数企业将在 检修后恢复生产,难改长期过剩格局,叠加上期所仓单库存处于高位将限制氧化铝反弹高度,期货 升水时考虑逢高短空参与。 【锌】 隔夜铜价回吐涨幅，市场仍评估不确定风险，欧美4月制造业PM1好于预期，但服务业及综合PM1家 紋. 市场将努力跟踪有关美国制造业回归的指标表现。2507令约7.8万上方空单持有。 特朗普就关税和鲍威尔的相关表态,缓解了市场的避险情绪, 黄金大幅回落,风险资产上修,盈加 antamina矿因发生意外暂停的消息,沪锌减仓上行,但并未补上前期跳空缺口,整体低位偏弱运 行。锌精矿TC 反弹暂歇、5月炜厂常规检修,成本端支撑仍存。下游前期逢低备货较多,高价接货 速愿不强,现货交投转弱。中美关税博弈不确定性仍存,市场对5月后消费走弱的担忧不减,消费端 自下而上的负反馈有望带动沪锌打开2.15万元/吨下方空间。锌仍主反弹空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝继续小幅反弹。近期铝库存降至近年同期最低水平,五一节前备货和抢出口需求带 ...