Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyolefins: Not provided - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyester: Not provided - Chlor - Alkali: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - atmosphere, supply - demand relationship, and trade policies. Different chemical products show different trends, with some in short - term adjustment, some expected to rebound, and some in low - level oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the methanol futures price rises. The inland market is strong due to device maintenance and pre - holiday downstream demand, while the port market is weak due to expected import increase. The supply is expected to rise, but low inventory provides some support, with short - term oscillation adjustment [2] Urea - The intraday trend is weak. Supply is high, agricultural demand is postponed, and compound fertilizer开工率 is decreasing. With the approaching of the new agricultural demand peak season, the short - term market is expected to stabilize and then rise slightly [3] Polyolefins - The futures of polyethylene and polypropylene rise. The downstream开工率 of polyethylene is decreasing, but the supply pressure is expected to ease due to reduced imports and device maintenance. For polypropylene, planned and potential unplanned device shutdowns may lead to increased maintenance losses [4] Styrene - The futures price rises, but the medium - term downward pattern continues. The supply - demand contradiction has improved. The output is expected to decrease due to more device shutdowns than restarts, and the demand is also expected to decline. The price is in low - level oscillation [5] Polyester - Affected by the easing of Trump's tariff policy, the polyester sector is positive. PX and PTA may have price repair opportunities if the trade situation eases. The impact of trade friction on ethylene glycol is mixed, and the price is driven by oil prices. Short - fiber prices rebound, and the bottle - chip industry's开工率 rises, with the profit at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuates slightly, with production expected to rise, domestic demand being flat, and the price likely to oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is strong intraday, with inventory reduction but still in a loss stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass is strong, with improved sales in Shahe and cost support. The price is expected to have limited decline. Soda ash futures rise due to maintenance rumors. The supply is high, and the long - term is in an oversupply pattern, with a possible short - term rebound [8]

化工研究服务内容介绍 国投期货研究院 化工组 庞春艳 Z0011355 2025年4月23日 Intel 国家期货 2 3 投期货 SDIC FUTURES 品种及人员配置 Part2 4 5 6 8 9 协助提升业务经理化工 专业性 10 11 %, 研究产品的获取 1、常规报告及品种基础通过数据投研平台自助 国投期货研究院 3月10日 車椅与車化 阅读 208 赞 6 卡 847 发生 【点评报告】2025年3月 MPOB报告解读 刷读 182 篮2 【国投期货化工视点】化工市场 0250310 阅读 79 管 2 【重化金工】FOF配置与Barra风格 报 | 有色金属ETF收益回升 间读 18 英音皇夫 点石成金 震观日历 3、热点品种或主题：视频号直播+回放 4 - × 公众号 • 浏览+搜索 2、特色研究报告：国投期货研究院公众号 // 服务前确认双方时间，如客 提前和机构或者客户沟通。 尽快与品种研究员对接， 户安排临时有变化，提前通 提服务流程申请 明确需求 通服务思路 知研究员 13 · 1、会议演讲：行业研究、专题研究、行情展望、品种或产业链知识、研究框架 • 2、企业培训：衍生品工具介绍 ...

【国投期货|能源论事】 能源团队 研究院 李祖智 Z0016599 2025.4.23 伊朗 LPG 出口企业受制裁对市场影响的点 评 当地时间 4 月 22 日，美国美国财政部外国资产控制办公室宣布对伊朗 LPG 企业家 Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh 及其产业纳入制裁。其产业包括 9 家液化石油气公司和一艘 LPG 运输船，据报道称其中一家公司垄 断了伊朗国家天然气公司的液化石油气交付。 伊朗 LPG 产量自 2020 年气分工厂扩建后快速增长，2024 年由于达到产能上限而出口量增长出现停滞。据估 计 2024 年出口量约为 1150 万吨，较 2020 年增长 140%，占到 24 年中东总出口量的 25%，使得伊朗已成为中东 第一大 LPG 出口国，同时其出口对象主要为中国，据 Vortexa 估计，在 2023 年近 91%伊朗出口 LPG 销往中国。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅 反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的期货或期权的价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of international oil prices is limited, and the downward risk will increase near the upper edge of the shock range [2]. - Gold prices are highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3]. - Copper market rebounds, but it is recommended to short - allocate [4]. - Aluminum price rebounds with limited height and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - Alumina is in a long - term surplus pattern, and it is advisable to be short on rallies [6]. - Zinc price rebounds, but it is recommended to short - allocate [7]. - Lead price fluctuates in a narrow range, and it is necessary to track refinery dynamics [8]. - Nickel is at the end of a rebound, waiting for the right time to short [9]. - Tin price is recommended to hold short positions [10]. - Lithium carbonate is in a downward channel, and it is advisable to hold short positions [11]. - Polysilicon is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [12]. - Industrial silicon may maintain bottom - range fluctuations [13]. - Steel prices are volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to demand and policies [14]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [15]. - Coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - Coking coal price is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - Manganese silicon is recommended to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon is recommended to short on rallies [19]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in a volatile pattern in the short term [20]. - Fuel oil cracking is still supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil cracking declines [21]. - Asphalt is expected to fluctuate before demand improves [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to continue to fluctuate [23]. - Urea price is expected to stabilize and then rise slightly [24]. - Methanol is expected to adjust in a volatile pattern in the short term [25]. - Styrene price fluctuates at a low level [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic demand is weak, and supply pressure may ease [27]. - PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see for caustic soda [28]. - PX and PTA fundamentals are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to market changes [29]. - Ethylene glycol supply and demand may both decline, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [30]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken [31]. - Glass price may have limited decline space [32]. - Rubber demand weakens, and different rubber varieties have different strategies [33]. - Soda ash price may rebound in the short term but is in a long - term surplus pattern [34]. - Soybean and soybean meal supply may change from tight to loose [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil need to pay attention to supply and demand changes [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil may fluctuate [37]. - Soybean price needs to pay attention to policies and supply - demand changes [38]. - Corn price may continue to decline in a volatile pattern [39]. - Pig price may face pressure in the medium term [40]. - Egg price is expected to be bearish in the long term [41]. - Cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rallies [42]. - Sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Apple price needs to observe fruit - setting conditions, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - Wood price is expected to decline [45]. - Pulp price is affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. - A - share market may perform after sorting out [47]. - Treasury bond futures maintain a strong volatile range, and a steepening strategy is recommended [48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but the rebound space is limited due to factors such as short - term geopolitical support, trade - war impact on demand, and OPEC+ production increase [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The global heavy - oil shortage pattern is difficult to change, supporting fuel oil cracking, while low - sulfur fuel oil cracking declines due to factors such as increased supply and trade impact [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The external price is stable, but domestic supply is in a short - term surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold price fell from a historical high, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously due to factors such as price volatility [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper price rose, but it is recommended to short - allocate due to factors such as economic growth downgrade and supply - demand situation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price continued to fluctuate, and the rebound height is limited due to factors such as inventory and demand outlook [5]. - **Alumina**: Alumina price stopped falling and stabilized temporarily, but it is in a long - term surplus pattern, and it is advisable to be short on rallies [6]. - **Zinc**: Zinc price may be supported in the short term but is recommended to short - allocate due to factors such as supply - demand and profit situation [7]. - **Lead**: Lead price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the rebound space is limited due to factors such as inventory and demand [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel price is at the end of a rebound, waiting for the right time to short [9]. - **Tin**: Tin price fluctuates in a narrow range, and it is recommended to hold short positions [10]. - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore price is expected to fluctuate mainly, with supply and demand in a normal state and some support in the short term [15]. - **Coke**: Coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as inventory and tariff impact [16]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as inventory and demand [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon price is recommended to short on rallies due to factors such as inventory increase [18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon price is recommended to short on rallies due to factors such as weak demand and inventory increase [19]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Demand is weak, but supply pressure may ease due to increased maintenance [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see for caustic soda due to factors such as inventory and demand [28]. - **Aromatics & Derivatives** - **PX & PTA**: Fundamentals are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to market changes such as trade and oil prices [29]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: Price fluctuates at a low level due to factors such as supply - demand reduction [26]. - **Others** - **Methanol**: It is expected to adjust in a volatile pattern in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand and inventory [25]. - **Urea**: Price is expected to stabilize and then rise slightly due to factors such as supply - demand change [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand may both decline, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand is expected to weaken [31]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds & Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Supply may change from tight to loose in the short term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Need to pay attention to supply and demand changes [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: May fluctuate [37]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: Price may continue to decline in a volatile pattern due to factors such as supply - demand and market divergence [39]. - **Wheat**: No relevant content. - **Soft Commodities** - **Cotton**: Price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rallies due to factors such as trade and supply - demand [42]. - **Sugar**: Price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Apple**: Price needs to observe fruit - setting conditions, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Livestock** - **Pig**: Price may face pressure in the medium term due to factors such as supply increase [40]. - **Egg**: Price is expected to be bearish in the long term due to factors such as increased supply [41]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in a volatile pattern in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand and tariff impact [20]. - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: Price may have limited decline space due to factors such as cost support [32]. - **Wood**: Price is expected to decline due to factors such as supply - demand and inventory [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: Price is affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to wait and see due to factors such as high inventory [46]. Financial - **Equities**: A - share market may perform after sorting out due to factors such as global risk - preference change and central - bank buying [47]. - **Fixed Income**: Treasury bond futures maintain a strong volatile range, and a steepening strategy is recommended [48].

国技期类 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 用 西亨 策略净值方面,上周供给因子上行 0.08%,需求因子走强0.09%,库存因子 走高0.08%,合成因子走低0.08%,本周 综合信号中性。基本面因子上,国产甲 醇开工率由提升转为下降,但因子贡献 度不高,供给端中性;上周江浙地区 MTO开工下调,需求端转为空头;生产 企业库存偏低且持续去库,库存端多头 延续;甲醇期价以及内蒙-鲁南区域价差 因子释放空头信号,价差端中性偏空。 大类信号强度 老 र्गे PSH र्गे ttps: 需求 库存 价差 ■上周因子强度 ■ 当周因子强度 数据来源:wind,国投期货 // 国技期货 净值曲线 信号 需求 ■库存 = 价垂 一大类合成 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 0.95 国技期负 数据来源:wind,国投期货 大类信号强度 老 र्ग PSH ポ සි 需求 库存 价差 制润 ■ 当周因子强度 ■ 上周因子强度 国投期采 数据来源:wind,国投期货 策略净值方面,上周供给因子上行 2025/4/22 | 走强0.81%,合成因子上行0.47%,本周 | | | | 价差 - ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年04月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ななな | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉有所下跌,国产棉现货交投平淡,现货基差较为坚挺,部分贸易商略下调高合杂品种基层;纯棉纱市场交投不佳,下 游则需采购。国内3月份选口棉花7.37万吨，同比降32.33万吨。3月份,服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类商品零售额为1240亿元,同比 线长3.6%,1-3月累计零售额为3869亿元,同比增长3.4%,国内内销数据表现尚可,外需面临的挑战 ...

【尿素】 尿素盘面上涨。日产持续偏高,南方部分区域千早少雨,农需后置,复合肥开工率持续下降,近期对服荒的刚 需走弱,生产企业连续两周大幅累阵,4月底5月初局部农业备肥增加以及工业开工的回升预期推动尿素需求好 转。尿素供应充足延续,随着新一轮农需旺季的临近,短期行情预计企稳后小幅回升。 | 《八八国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月22日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 绅 残 | ★☆★ | 瓶片 | なな☆ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | ...

| 11/11/ ■授期货 | | 能源日报 2025年04月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 原油 | なな☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周在美国对伊朗实施"极限施压"政策以来的第六轮制裁及OPEO+强化减产补偿的推动下油价低位反弹,我们认为 年内伊朗、委内瑞拉的边际供应减量风险在50-100万桶/天蛋织,参照OPEG+充浴的剩余产能及月均20万桶/天以上的 增产弹性,极端情景下的供应损失将在3-5个月内得以补充。她练犹动对油价的支撑具有短期性,考虑到贸易战对经 济增速、油品需求的压制以及OPEO+的增产行为均有待演绎,我们认为本轮反弹空间 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ indicates a slightly bullish/bearish view with weak trading operability [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★☆★ - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ suggests a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ represents a clear bearish/bullish trend with an ongoing market movement [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆ Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. The cost side of carbon elements is declining, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, inventory, and demand. Different varieties have different trends, mainly including weak trends for steel, coke, and coking coal, and a sideways trend for iron ore [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market is weak today. Thread steel's apparent demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, but its sustainability is uncertain. Hot - rolled coil demand has improved, and inventory has continued to decline [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of thread steel has decreased slightly, and the inventory has been depleted faster. The production of hot - rolled coil has stabilized. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down [1] - **Downstream Industries**: Infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, and the decline in real - estate sales and new construction has narrowed marginally but remains weak. Exports are affected by US tariff hikes, and domestic demand policies need to be strengthened [1] - **Outlook**: The market outlook is pessimistic, and the weak market situation is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the intensity of peak - season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro - policies [1] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore futures market is oscillating today [2] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, and domestic arrivals have decreased this period but remain above the annual average. Port inventory has been significantly depleted, and there is a seasonal growth expectation [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is resilient, steel mills have certain profits, and the resumption of hot - metal production has slowed but still has room for further growth [2] - **Outlook**: The overall trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillating, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - **Market Performance**: The coke price has oscillated downward today [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and coke production has also increased slightly after the first price increase. The overall inventory depletion is poor, and the inventory remains high [3] - **Outlook**: The coke futures premium has been compressed, and the price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [3] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal price has oscillated downward today [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Due to individual accidents and working - face switching, the production has been affected. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory is basically flat, and downstream purchases are for rigid demand. Imported Mongolian coal transactions are weak [5] - **Outlook**: The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production may reach its peak. The price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [5] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The silicon manganese price has declined today [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Manganese ore port inventory has been increasing, and the price of manganese ore has declined. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased slightly from a high level. The overall inventory has increased significantly [6] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds as the manganese ore inventory is increasing [6] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The silicon iron price has declined today [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, export demand has decreased marginally, and metal magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased [7] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds due to its weak fundamentals [7]