★美联储理事术兰：继续降息仍然是合理的;（评ADP）政府停摆前的就业市场趋势似乎依然存在。 ★克宫：普京与特朗普近期无对话计划。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | Millio | > 國授期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月06日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布10月ADP就业人数增加4.2万人高于预期为7月以来最大增幅，10月ISM非制造业PMI 升至52.4为2 月以来最高水平，美国经济表现稳健但史上最长的政府停摆令经济和美联储政策前景存在不确定性。市场等 待新的驱动出现，贵金属构筑高位震荡平台，暂时保持观望。 ★美最高法院关税案辩论开幕，保守派首席大法官等人对关税合理性发出质疑，特朗普胜诉概率降低。贝森 特对胜诉持乐观态度。 ★民主党轻松击败共和党候 ...

Group 1: Metal Price Changes - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 85,995, with a rise of 660, and the SMM flat - water copper premium is 0, up 5 [1] - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21,360, up 60, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 30, down 10 [1] - The average price of alumina (Shanxi) is 2,840, unchanged, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 317, down 1 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 17,225, down 100, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, unchanged [1] - The average price of recycled refined aluminum is 17,175, down 100, the refined - scrap price difference is 50, unchanged [1] - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,500, unchanged, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 tin is 282,800, up 1,500, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 770, up 250 [1] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 270,800, up 1,500, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.76% [1] - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 119,475, down 475, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged [1] - The average price of SMM electrodeposited nickel is 119,150, down 500, and the average premium of SMM electrodeposited nickel is 75, down 25 [1] - The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,925, down 425, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2,850, up 50 [1] - The average price of oxygen - permeable 421 (Xinjiang) is 9,050, unchanged, and the premium of oxygen - permeable 421 (Xinjiang) to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 970, down 520 [1] - The average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock is 52.2, unchanged, and the average price of N - type polysilicon dense material is 51, unchanged [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,400, down 100, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,460, down 1,860 [1] - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,200, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200, unchanged [1] Group 2: Analysts Information - Lang Duo is the chief analyst, researching copper and tin, with a qualification number of F3047773 and an investment consulting number of Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo is a senior analyst, researching aluminum, alumina, and gold, with a qualification number of F3062795 and an investment consulting number of Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang is a senior analyst, researching nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with a qualification number of F3085524 and an investment consulting number of Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang is a mid - level analyst, researching aluminum and zinc, with a qualification number of F03111330 and an investment consulting number of Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui is a mid - level analyst, researching industrial silicon, with a qualification number of F03099436 and an investment consulting number of Z0021022 [1] Group 3: Data Information - The data sources are SMM, iFind, and Guotou Futures. The data is updated daily between 11:00 - 13:00 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current situation and future trends [2][3][4] - Overall, the market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices oscillated. Saudi Aramco cut the official price premium of crude oil sold to Asia in December, and the downward pressure on oil prices in the fourth quarter is gradually materializing. Geopolitical factors have a limited impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of price decline this year [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil followed crude oil in a weak downward trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continued to widen. The short - term cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened, but the continuous upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the price spread between the two is expected to expand further [22] - **Asphalt**: Northern construction is gradually coming to an end, while the south still has demand for rush - repair work. The fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market's bearish sentiment is deepening, with prices continuing to decline [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The improvement in chemical profit has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion demand. However, with the weakening upward trend of international oil prices and the lack of strong support factors, the LPG main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Some US economic data are still missing, and the government shutdown has brought uncertainty to the economy and Fed policy. The precious metals market is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices were blocked at the MA20 moving average. The domestic copper market trading rhythm resonates with the stock market. There are differences in domestic social inventory statistics. It is advisable to wait and see, expecting the previous upward momentum to cool down [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum prices declined. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased while that of aluminum rods increased. The market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance from fundamentals. It is in a short - term volatile and slightly upward trend, but it is not advisable to chase the rise [5] - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the de - stocking pace has slowed. The external market has limited upward momentum, but the spot resources overseas are still tight. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to decline. The cost support for Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter has further strengthened, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [8] - **Lead**: LME lead inventory continued to decline, supporting the price above $2000. The domestic lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost still supports Shanghai lead. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was dull. Downstream demand is weak. The price support from the upstream is weakening, and Shanghai nickel is expected to run weakly with a downward - shifting center of gravity [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices oscillated. The tin market is in a game between short - to - medium - term supply shortages and long - term stable upstream supply growth. It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The spot price decline has slowed down, but the discount transaction continues. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the price will run weakly with limited rebound space [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. It will continue to follow the aluminum price and is difficult to have an independent market [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices stabilized and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The supply and demand were both strong, and the total inventory decreased. The futures price strengthened, and it is expected to show a short - term strong and volatile trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded significantly, and the market sentiment improved. The supply side has obvious contraction characteristics due to production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season. The industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term disk will continue to oscillate [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rebounded due to continuous price corrections and increased production - cut expectations. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern, and the actual production - cut intensity needs to be tracked [14] - **Plastics and Related Products** - **PP, PE, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is generally abundant, and the downstream demand support is weak. The cost support for polyethylene has declined, and the downstream demand is average. The overall market performance is average [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC continues to accumulate inventory and runs at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is declining. Caustic soda oscillated slightly stronger, but the downstream demand is general, and it runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: PX supply has recovered, while the overall load of PTA has decreased. The market is boosted by the news that PTA may increase production cuts. In the medium term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the raw material price increase transmission may be blocked [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply is expected to grow, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but the raw material price increase may squeeze profits. The demand for bottle chips has weakened, and the processing margin is under pressure [33] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices oscillated. The apparent demand and production of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the demand expectation is still pessimistic. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the short - term price may still fluctuate [15] - **Iron Ore**: Overnight iron ore futures prices oscillated weakly. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices oscillated upward during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase for coke. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both prices oscillated strongly. The demand from molten iron production remains high. The price of manganese silicon is likely to oscillate upward, and ferrosilicon demand is generally good, with a similar price trend [19][20] - **Glass**: Glass prices oscillated. Some production lines in Shahe stopped production, and the inventory decreased. The cost has increased, and the profit has narrowed. The short - term downward space is limited [34] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Night - session US soybean prices led to a decline in domestic prices. The import cost of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected that domestic soybean inventory will decrease in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Overnight US soybean prices dropped sharply. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased. Attention should be paid to whether palm oil can stabilize at this stage [38] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply - side positive factors for rapeseed meal still prevail, and the strategy of going long on rapeseed meal is maintained. The view on rapeseed oil has changed from bearish to wait - and - see, focusing on the marginal changes in imports [39] - **Corn**: Night - session Dalian corn futures continued to run strongly. The supply of new corn in the Northeast has increased at a slower pace, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The import tax rate of US corn has changed, and attention should be paid to the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is weakly stable, and the futures price is consolidating at a low level after a rebound. The later supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [42] - **Eggs**: The near - month futures contract of eggs hit a new high, and the far - month contract is mainly consolidating. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. It is advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices declined. Brazilian cotton exports increased year - on - year. The new cotton cost provides some support, but the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see for now [44] - **Sugar**: Overnight US sugar prices oscillated. The international sugar supply is relatively abundant, and the domestic market is focusing on the new - season production estimate [45] - **Apples**: Apple futures prices oscillated widely. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, but the quality is poor, and the selling sentiment is strong. A bearish strategy is recommended [46] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: The futures price is running weakly. The low inventory provides strong support, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [47] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the demand is average. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose with heavy volume yesterday, and futures contracts all rose. The short - term market will mainly oscillate and consolidate. It is advisable to focus on technology - growth stocks and appropriately allocate cyclical and consumer sectors [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs may have an impact on the US budget deficit. The domestic bond market is in a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk announced a price increase for December freight rates, setting a reference benchmark. The 12 - contract valuation upper limit is emerging, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is still weak, with the expected demand remaining weak. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the futures prices may fluctuate in the short - term. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke has a third - round price increase expectation, and coking coal prices are not expected to fall continuously. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's futures prices rebounded slightly. Thread demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. Hot - roll demand dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory rose slightly. Iron - water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is weak, but the market sentiment has improved. The futures prices may still fluctuate in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The global shipment is at a high level for the same period, and there is room for seasonal improvement. The domestic arrival volume has increased significantly, and port inventories are accumulating. Terminal demand has entered the off - season, steel demand has dropped, and steel mills' profitability has shrunk. There is further pressure on iron - water production cuts. After the macro - level positive news was implemented, the market tends to cash in on the benefits and start to trade the fact of a marginally looser iron ore market. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated upwards during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase in the coking industry. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Coke inventories have hardly changed. Downstream enterprises are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing intentions are average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and high - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a premium [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated upwards during the day. The market sentiment was affected by the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area, but many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so prices are not expected to fall continuously. The production of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions have improved, and terminal inventories have increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and producer - side inventories have decreased slightly. High - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a discount to Mongolian coal [6] Silicomanganese - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236. Weekly production of silicomanganese has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and inventories are slowly accumulating. The forward quotation of manganese ore is flat month - on - month. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236, and export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons. The secondary demand has increased marginally, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [8]

Group 1 - Analyst: Li Xiaochen, a senior analyst in ferrous metals with the qualification number Z0016022 [1] Group 2 - Data presented includes price data from 2023 - 2025 with values ranging from 7000 to 9500, and weekly production data of rebar and silicomanganese from 20 - 1 - 3 to 25 - 9 - 3 [4][5]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: One star, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The overall energy market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. The mid - term supply - demand situation, geopolitical factors, and seasonal factors all have an impact on the price trends of various energy products [2][3][4] Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, showing a volatile and weak trend this week. After the API crude oil inventory increased more than expected, last week's EIA crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels more than expected. The mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus on oil prices persists. Although the attack on Russia's largest Black Sea port Tuapse and surrounding refineries affected short - term shipments and production, the refinery operating rate in the last week of October has recovered to the highest level since August. Geopolitical factors have a volatile impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of oil price decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil has been dominated by the trend of crude oil, showing a volatile pattern. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a certain strengthening trend compared with high - sulfur fuel oil. The unexpected shutdown of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery, the adjustment of the shipping rhythm after the restart of Dangote refinery, and the possible transfer of some low - sulfur export quotas in China to the refined oil sector have jointly promoted the short - term strengthening of its cracking spread. However, the overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is still sufficient, with a new batch of 540,000 barrels of low - sulfur oil from Malaysia's PrefChem planned to be loaded in late November. There are still many remaining quotas in China, so the continuous upward momentum is expected to be limited. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical conflicts, but the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian supply has been basically digested. At the same time, the previously damaged refineries are gradually recovering, combined with the off - season of power generation demand and the increasing production trend of OPEC +, the mid - term supply pattern tends to be loose. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to expand [3] Asphalt - Construction in the north is gradually weakening, with construction in the northeast and northwest gradually stopping due to low temperatures, while there is still a demand for rush construction in the south. There are multiple bearish signals in the fundamentals. Since late October, the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative for the first time, and it is likely to continue this negative trend. The decline of the overall weekly commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory at the end of October has increased year - on - year for the first time this year. The market's bearish sentiment has deepened, and the price of asphalt (BU) continues to decline [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today's main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the weekly commercial volume of liquefied petroleum gas decreased. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the growth of demand, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand on the combustion end. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased. The international oil price shows a weak upward trend, and the lack of strong supporting factors in the fundamentals combined with the negative guidance from the cost side means that the main LPG contract is expected to fluctuate [5]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ (Predicted trending up) [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - **Palm Oil**: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★☆ (Holding long, clear upward trend) [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★☆ (Holding long, clear upward trend) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - **Corn**: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - **Pigs**: ☆☆☆ (Predicted trending down) [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ (Predicted trending up) [1] Core Views - The market for high - protein soybeans is optimistic due to tight supply and government procurement. The overall soybean and soybean meal market is affected by import costs and trade policies. Palm oil may stage a temporary stabilization. The strategy for rapeseed meal is bullish, and the view on rapeseed oil shifts to neutral. Corn prices are in a weak bottom - range oscillation. Pig prices are likely to have a second bottoming next year. Egg futures' near - term contracts are strong, waiting for short - selling opportunities in Q4. [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Section Summaries **Beans 1** - Beans 1 showed strong performance, breaking through previous highs. Cofco's soybean procurement and the tight supply of high - protein soybeans due to adverse weather have led to an optimistic market outlook. Short - term focus is on policy guidance. [2] **Soybeans & Soybean Meal** - US soybeans led the decline in the domestic market. The import tax rate for US soybeans is 13%, making commercial imports unprofitable. The current soybean meal price is driven by rising import costs and expected destocking in Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to the resumption of USDA reports and potential long - entry opportunities after Sino - US trade eases. [3] **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil** - Palm oil rebounded, with the oil - tank ratio and soybean - palm oil spread changing. After recent declines, palm oil's downward momentum has eased. The market will focus on USDA reports. There is a possibility of short - term stabilization for palm oil. [4] **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil** - Rapeseed meal prices rose, and the strategy remains bullish. Rapeseed oil's view shifted from bearish to neutral, with a focus on changes in imports. The market is watching Australian rapeseed arrivals and Canadian trade policies. [5] **Corn** - Dalian corn futures rose 0.75% at the end of the session. Northeast corn supply growth has slowed, while Shandong's supply has increased. The import tax rate for US corn has changed. The market should watch for new Sino - US trade agreements and changes in Northeast farmers' selling enthusiasm. [6] **Pigs** - Pig spot prices are weakly stable, and futures are consolidating. The number of breeding sows decreased in October, but the later supply is still increasing. The second - round fattening will increase future supply pressure. Pig prices are likely to have a second bottoming next year. [7] **Eggs** - Egg futures' near - term contracts hit new highs, and spot prices rose slightly. The October laying - hen inventory decreased slightly, and chick replenishment was low. The market is waiting for short - selling opportunities in Q4. [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The medium - term downward risk of oil prices remains due to supply - demand surplus pressure and the uncertain impact of geopolitical factors [2]. - Precious metals are in a high - level shock platform and should be temporarily observed due to the uncertainty of the US economy and Fed policies [3]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy changes, and seasonal factors, showing different trends of shock, strength, or weakness [2 - 50]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: After the unexpected increase in API and EIA crude oil inventories, the medium - term downward risk of oil prices exists. Geopolitical factors have an uncertain impact on supply [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum due to sufficient supply, while high - sulfur fuel oil's medium - term supply tends to be loose. The crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: With improved chemical profits and increased combustion demand, but weak international oil prices, the LPG main contract is expected to oscillate [24]. - **Bitumen**: With the decline of construction in the north, the fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market is under pressure [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a high - level shock platform, and it's advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the US economy and Fed policies [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After hitting a record high, it needs new negative supply themes or strong demand signals. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: Supported by winter storage and refinery复产 expectations, it's expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and short - term long positions on dips are recommended [8]. - **Nickel**: Weakly operating with a downward - shifting center of gravity due to weak downstream demand [10]. - **Tin**: After a short - term sharp decline, it's close to the October low, and short - selling is suspended to wait for changes in social inventory [11]. - **Lead**: Oscillating between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton due to the conflict between supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [9]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Both are expected to have narrow - range oscillations, with relatively stable supply and demand [19][20]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are oscillating strongly. Although downstream demand provides some support, steel mills' low profit levels lead to price - pressing sentiment. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [17][18]. - **Alumina**: With a surplus supply pattern, it's weakly operating with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of aluminum and has no independent market for the time being [6]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is oscillating strongly, with increasing production and some support from agricultural demand, but the supply - demand surplus situation persists, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: With high port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand, the market is under pressure, and it's necessary to wait for supply reduction and demand improvement [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: It's oscillating at a low level. There are medium - term negatives of high imports and falling demand, and it's advisable to focus on the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: New production capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to be weak [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply is relatively loose, downstream demand is weak, and the market performance is average [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is operating at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda is expected to continue to decline due to high inventory and weak demand [30]. - **PX and PTA**: Supply is increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is continued, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is adopted, and attention should be paid to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is expected to accumulate inventory in the future, and bottle - chip is under pressure due to weak demand and over - capacity [33]. Building Materials - **Glass**: After the production line shutdown in Shahe, the inventory is expected to decline. With rising costs, the downward space is limited, and short - selling options can be held [34]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly recovering, but inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It's advisable to wait and see and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - **Soda Ash**: It's oscillating. With increasing supply and high inventory, and reduced demand from float glass, it's under pressure, and attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the tariff adjustment, the price of soybean meal may rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The contradiction between soybean and palm oil is differentiated. It's expected that soybean meal will be stronger than oil, and there is a risk of oil price decline [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: It's recommended to be bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil in the short term, with the risk of changes in trade relations [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: Driven by the rise of US soybeans, the price is strengthening, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy changes [40]. - **Corn**: The supply is abundant, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41]. - **Hog**: The futures price rebounds, but the spot price continues to fall. There is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The futures price is strong, and it's advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and it's advisable to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on trade [44]. - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Attention should be paid to weather and crop growth [45]. - **Apple**: The market is trading the inventory pressure in advance, and a bearish strategy is maintained [46]. - **Timber**: With low inventory providing support, it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, demand is average, and it's advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to maintain a balanced layout and focus on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and also consider cyclical and consumer sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures are oscillating, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends, and the investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity. Some are recommended for short - term observation, while others suggest a bearish or bullish stance [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, and the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, and downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere are about to start sugar - making, and their sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there is news of possible syrup import control. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate, and it is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high prices and poor quality may affect the de - stocking speed. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory of rubber products increased. Rubber inventory increased, and the cost support was weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to rise today. As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and the pulp supply was relatively loose. The demand for pulp was average, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price of timber was running weakly, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand for timber supported the price, and the inventory was relatively low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

安如泰山 信守承诺 关于中国对美国大豆进口关税下调的点评 国投期货研究院 10月30日，中美两国元首在韩国釜山举行会谈，这是习近平主席同特朗普总统时隔6年再度见 面,也是特朗普总统新任期内中美元首首次会晤。继中美马来西亚经贸磋商形成初步共识后、本次 会面成果显著,双方均表示将相应调整关税措施。 今日（11月5日）国务院关税税则委员会宣布，自2025年11月10日13时01分起，停止实施今年 税委会公告2025年第2号规定的加征关税措施。并调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税的公告》规定的加征关税措施，在一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。此公告利多，连柏期货继续上涨，截至收盘涨幅为1.49%、3周 时间从底部上涨200余点，多头趋势明显。 根据公告我们可以计算出，自2025年11月10日13时01分起，我国进口美豆的税率改为13%，但 商业进口美豆依然没有价格优势。金十数据显示，截至11月4日，目前美湾、美西与巴西的ONF到岸 价格相差不大,但关税相差10%。在关税制约下美国大豆依然没有进口价格优势,预计大豆商业买 船难以发生。 | | | 中 ...