Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, due to the internal policy differences of the Fed, trade easing signals, and the US government shutdown situation, the short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper price has potential, and long - positions can be held with a support level of 86,000 [4]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the upper resistance is the high point in November 2024 [5]. - Alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space and mainly weak operation [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for the time being [7]. - LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with both long and short factors coexisting [9]. - The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin prices are expected to be short - sold on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the focus is on inventory reduction and policy increments [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on policy news, and it is advisable to go long with a light position and pay attention to policy signals [13]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise with a limited increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream polysilicon production cuts in November [14]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand for both is acceptable [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - For fuel oil, there are opportunities to layout the low - level spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt has weak demand in the "peak season", and the medium - to - long - term de - stocking slowdown has limited support for prices [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. - Urea prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, it is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX and PTA are expected to continue the reverse spread strategy, and attention should be paid to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and prices may follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices are expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda ash is expected to be short - sold at high prices in the long term and fluctuate with the upstream and macro - sentiment in the short term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, pay attention to the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks and continue to be weak [39]. - For soybean No.1, pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - For live pigs, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - For sugar, pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - For stock indices, focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent December contract down 0.94%. Voluntary - production - cut 8 countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a mixed situation, and the low - sulfur market is weak. There are opportunities for low - level spread layout between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually stopping, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, with limited medium - to - long - term support [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices recovered some losses. The Shanghai copper has potential in terms of volume and price [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong last Friday, and the short - term trend is upward [5]. - Alumina: It is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9]. - Nickel & stainless steel: The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin: It is advisable to short - sell on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to de - stocking and policy increments [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has risen significantly, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream production cuts [14]. - Iron ore: The supply is high, and the demand support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke & coking coal: Prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon & ferrosilicon: Affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand is acceptable [19][20]. Chemicals - Urea: Prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol: It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stabilize [26]. - Pure benzene: It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to inventory accumulation [27]. - Styrene: Prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene & plastic & propylene: Prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC & caustic soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: Continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to continue to accumulate inventory and follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber & bottle - chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & soybean meal: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - Soybean oil & palm oil: Pay attention to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed & rapeseed oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks [39]. - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn: Prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - Live pigs: There is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - Eggs: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. Others - Container shipping index (European line): In a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - Wood: Prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - Stock indices: Focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures: Expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has significantly strengthened recently, driven by the improved third - quarter performance of photovoltaic listed companies, the demand resilience shown by the September domestic photovoltaic installation volume, and the rising expectation of state reserve purchase [1] - The spot market has limited ability to push up prices due to the high inventory and slow inventory clearance under the pattern of weak supply and demand [2] - The polysilicon market is in a game between policy expectations and industrial reality, with uncertainties in capacity policies and industrial production cuts, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [3] Summary by Related Topics Factors Driving the Strengthening of Polysilicon Futures Price - The improved third - quarter performance of photovoltaic listed companies has enhanced the secondary market's expectation of the industry's "anti - involution" effect, and the sentiment has spread to the futures market [1] - In September, the domestic photovoltaic installation volume reached 9.66GW, showing demand resilience with a 31.25% month - on - month increase, and the expectation of the year - end installation peak season supports market confidence [1] - The expectation of state reserve purchase has risen again, and the statements of leading polysilicon enterprises in the media have promoted the market's optimistic sentiment towards capacity regulation [1] Situation of the Spot Market - After the National Day, the polysilicon trading was generally dull, with the quotation generally stable and locally loose. The lower limit of the N - type re -投料 transaction price dropped slightly to 49,500 yuan/ton, and the upper limit remained at 55,000 yuan/ton [2] - In October, the polysilicon production cut was less than expected, with the monthly output expected to increase by about 4,000 tons, and the industry inventory remained at a high level [2] - In November, although there is an expectation of production cuts in the southwest region due to the dry season, the downstream silicon wafers may also cut production simultaneously due to the association quota constraints. The inventory clearance is expected to be slow, and the ability to push up the spot price is limited [2] Uncertainties and Future Trends in the Polysilicon Market - The market is in a game between policy expectations and industrial reality, with uncertainties in whether capacity policies will be implemented as scheduled and whether industrial production cuts will be weakened by high prices [3] - The short - term trend depends on the fermentation of policy news, with the futures price being easy to rise and hard to fall. However, if the expectations are disappointed or the spot price fails to follow the rise, the risk of a high - level correction will significantly increase [3] - It is recommended to operate with a light position and follow the trend, and pay attention to policy signals and the production plans of leading enterprises [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trend**: Douyi (★★★), Biao You (★★★) [1] - **Potential Upside**: Doupo, Caipo, Caiyou, Yumi (★☆☆) [1] - **Neutral**: Yidou, Shengzhu, Jidan (☆☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as import and export policies, demand expectations, and supply conditions. For example, the prices of soybeans and related products are influenced by Sino - US trade relations, and the prices of rapeseed products are related to Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [2][3][6] - Some products face potential risks, such as the callback risk of oils and the potential inventory accumulation risk of Caiyou [4][6] - The supply and demand patterns of different agricultural products vary, which affects their price trends. For example, the supply of corn is abundant, and the demand for Caipo is expected to decline [7][6] Summary by Directory Soybeans - Douyi futures prices are slightly up, and the price is consolidating. Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [2] - The Lianzhan 2601 contract is strong, with a 1.34% increase. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and pay attention to policy adjustments on US soybean imports and potential long - buying opportunities [3] - US soybean prices are rising due to improved demand expectations. Domestic soybean crushing profit is in deficit, and pay attention to the callback risk of oils and the performance of palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade [4] Rapeseed Products - Domestic rapeseed futures prices are down, while overseas oilseed prices are relatively strong. Pay attention to the marginal changes in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Caipo may be boosted by oilseed futures prices, and Caiyou may face inventory accumulation risks [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose 0.8% in the afternoon. Northeast corn supply is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Sino - US relations are easing, and pay attention to corn import conditions. Dalian corn may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Livestock Products - The spot price of pigs is mostly down, and the futures price is weak. It is expected that there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] - The spot price of eggs is stable with a slight increase, the futures price fluctuates, and pay attention to vegetable price fluctuations and the opportunity to short at high levels in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market faces medium - term supply - demand pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, although short - term support exists from Sino - US trade war easing [2]. - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile platform, and investors should wait for a stable and low - volatility entry opportunity [3]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may increase the December production quota by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2nd, and the market has a downward risk despite short - term support [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy divergence among officials, along with Sino - US tariff cuts, lead to market sentiment swings [3]. - **Copper**: After hitting a record high, the copper price has a short - term callback, but the long - term potential remains, and bulls can hold at 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited due to general domestic inventory and consumption [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc, but there is short - term callback pressure. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the market expects an increase in exports in November [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, with high - nickel pig iron prices falling and inventories changing [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - term bearish, and investors can hold short positions based on 285,000 [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is strong, and the market is concerned about inventory reduction and policy increments, with a short - term bullish and volatile outlook [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has a slight increase, but the short - term upside space is limited due to potential supply and demand weakening [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is volatile, and the market needs to wait for the implementation of enterprise production cuts in November to improve the supply - demand pattern [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is high, and the demand support for prices is weakening. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of a third price increase, but the coking profit is average, and the market should pay attention to the impact of Sino - US leader negotiations [17][18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The demand for ironmaking maintains a high level, but the iron production in Tangshan may decline. The supply and demand of both are relatively stable [19][20]. Group 2: Chemicals Core Views - Most chemical products face various supply - demand and cost - related challenges, with different price trends. Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be unsustainable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, but there may be supply contractions [22]. - **Asphalt**: The "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, and the long - term de - stocking slowdown limits the upside space [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The fundamentals are improving, and the near - month contract is in a slightly bullish oscillation [24]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost provide some support, and the short - term price is low [25]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak, but it may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume is high, and the market is under pressure. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [27]. - **Styrene**: The price may continue to be weak due to cost and inventory concerns [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The cost support weakens, and the downstream demand decreases, leading to price declines or narrow - range adjustments [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals, while caustic soda is in a state of inventory accumulation and price decline [30]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply of both is increasing, and the market is in a weak oscillation without more positive news [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are expected to lead to inventory accumulation, and the price follows the market decline [32]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation in November, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak situation, and the price decline space is limited at a low valuation [34]. - **Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, etc.**: The strategy is bullish, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the long - term is in a supply - surplus pattern, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [36]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Core Views - Sino - US trade relations affect the agricultural product market, and the supply - demand situation of each product varies. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is easing, and the market should pay attention to policies on US soybean imports and price quotes [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: In the short term, soybean meal is expected to be stronger than oil, and attention should be paid to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainty of rapeseed - related trade is high, and rapeseed meal is expected to rebound in the short term while rapeseed oil is under pressure [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is abundant, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and corn imports [41]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is falling due to potential supply pressure, and there may be a second bottom - testing next year [42]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported by rising vegetable prices, and the futures price is rising. Wait for a short - selling opportunity in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides some support, but the market is in a weak peak season. The short - term rise is a rebound with limited space [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate [45]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples have stable high prices, but low - quality apples may cause inventory pressure later [46]. - **Timber**: The low inventory supports the price, but the supply and demand situation is complex [47]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. The operation is mainly short - term or wait - and - see [48]. Group 4: Financial Products Core Views - The A - share market may maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium term, and the bond market is in a repair stage. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with technology stocks adjusting. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation results are positive for the medium - term market sentiment, and the focus should be on the technology growth sector [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures are slightly bullish. The Japanese central bank may raise interest rates, and the domestic bond market is entering a repair stage [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, trade relations, and supply - demand dynamics. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive signals to the market, but various commodities still face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][21][37]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities show diverse price trends. Some are under pressure due to supply surpluses, while others are supported by factors such as demand recovery or supply shortages. The report provides specific analysis and trading suggestions for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. Brent 12 - contract fell 0.28%. The mid - term supply - demand pressure on crude oil remains due to OPEC +'s continuous production increase, but the easing of the Sino - US trade war provides short - term support. There is still a downside risk [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed the crude oil's oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be limited in the long - term, and the mid - term supply pattern is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is generally weak, but supply may contract due to refinery incidents. There are opportunities to go long on the high - low sulfur spread [22]. - **LPG**: The near - month LPG contract continued to be strong. The decrease in supply and increase in demand due to improved chemical profits and cold weather support the price [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The Fed's rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, along with the Sino - US tariff reduction, led to volatile market sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, copper prices pulled back. The long - position can be held above 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The short - term trend is slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc. There is a short - term callback pressure on the external market. Zinc ingot exports are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to short - sell Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices suppress downstream demand. However, LME lead is in the process of destocking, and there may be opportunities for cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are weak, with the center of gravity tending to move down due to over - supply in the industry [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - sold, and the short - position can be held below 285,000 [11]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of aluminum and is difficult to have an independent market due to high inventory levels [6]. Chemicals - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has recovered from a low level, but the fundamental situation is still weak. Caustic soda continues to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to be low [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [31]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly but may gradually stop falling [26]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost support the price. The short - term market is expected to operate at a low level [25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the trade situation has improved. Domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and bean meal inventory has decreased slightly. Pay attention to policies on US soybean imports [37]. - **Corn**: The supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the import situation after the Sino - US trade improvement [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton also declined slightly. New cotton costs have increased, providing some support, but the market is still cautious due to weak demand [44]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output forecast. The output expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [45]. Others - **Shipping**: The current booking demand in November is weak, but the cargo volume is expected to recover in late November. Airlines may raise prices, and it is advisable to go long on the freight index of container shipping (European line) at low levels [21]. - **Equity Market**: A - shares fell with heavy volume, and futures indices also declined. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have positive effects on the medium - term market sentiment. Focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market is entering a recovery phase, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|化工视点】你问我答:玻璃底部是否已现? 点有成金 答：目前供给端存在较大不确定性。首先，反内卷对玻璃供给的影响仍停留在预期层面，尚无实质 性举措，后续是否会出台相应细则仍需持续关注；其次， 10月份以来玻璃现货降价、成本抬升， 行业利润收缩后，是否会加速沙河玻璃企业燃煤产线向清洁煤制气切换，还需持续跟踪。目前玻璃 底部已基本确认，策略层面可以关注：低位多玻璃的机会，但上方空间还需供给端收缩或者需求端 发力配合；另外可以继续关注多玻璃空纯碱套利策略；此前推荐的卖玻璃浅虚值看跌期权仍可继续 持有。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 答：国庆前供给端消息发酵，刺激中下游囤货；国庆后预期未兑现，中游出货，挤压玻璃厂销 售，现货呈现累库阴跌态势，期货价格下挫。随着玻璃跌至1100元以下，估值重新来到低位, 加之成本端煤炭价格上涨带来成本支撑，目供给端仍有扰动的可能，期价再度回升。 2.如何看待当前玻璃市场的主导因素？其交易逻辑是否发生变化? 答：玻璃目前仍处在弱现实和强预期的博弈中。随着估值重新来到低位，弱现实得到交易，市 场转而交易低估值下的强预期。 ...

Report Core View - Glass bottom was likely formed in June, and currently it's difficult for the market to break the previous low due to policy and cost changes [4] - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the market has shifted to trading strong expectation at low valuations [3] - There is significant uncertainty on the supply side, and the follow - up supply - side policies and production line switching need continuous attention [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Summary by Related Questions How to view the decline of glass futures after National Day and the subsequent rebound - Before National Day, supply - side news stimulated downstream stockpiling; after National Day, the expectation was not fulfilled, leading to a decline in futures prices. Then, due to low valuation, cost support, and possible supply - side disturbances, the futures price rebounded [2] How to view the current dominant factors and trading logic of the glass market - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. With the low valuation, the market trades the strong expectation. The cost has increased, and it's difficult for the price to break the previous low. The fuel switch in Shahe may be a market focus [3] Whether the bottom of the glass market has appeared and the firmness of the bottom - The bottom of glass was considered to have appeared in June. Currently, due to policy and cost changes, it's hard for the market to break the previous low [4] Uncertainties in the glass market, variables in the fourth quarter, and how to grasp the later trend - Supply - side has great uncertainty, including the impact of anti - involution policies and the fuel switch in Shahe. Strategies include going long on glass at low positions, multi - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage, and holding short glass out - of - the - money put options [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefins - polyolefins market is affected by factors such as international oil prices and downstream demand, with futures contracts showing narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market faces challenges like high - volume imports and weak cost support, with prices likely to remain weak [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PTA may face supply pressure and potential inventory accumulation; ethylene glycol has a short - term inventory decline but a mid - term accumulation expectation; short fiber may experience inventory changes; bottle chip demand is weakening [5]. - The coal - chemical market has methanol facing inventory and demand issues, with a short - term weak trend but a potential to stop falling; urea may have a short - term rebound [6]. - The chlor - alkali market has PVC following macro - sentiment with a weak fundamental situation, and caustic soda facing supply pressure and low - price operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market has soda ash influenced by cost and macro - sentiment, with a long - term oversupply situation; glass shows a bottom - rising trend but with limited downstream demand [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, affected by falling international oil prices and weakening downstream demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE has inventory pressure and price resistance from downstream; PP has little market change at the end of the month [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebound slightly, but face pressure from high imports and potential port inventory accumulation [3]. - Styrene futures remain weak due to factors like weak cost, limited port de - stocking, and unplanned device outages with limited impact [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by external sentiment and supply - demand factors. PTA has supply pressure but a short - term positive sentiment, with a mid - term inventory accumulation risk [5]. - Ethylene glycol follows the external market, with production increasing and short - term inventory decline but mid - term accumulation expected [5]. - Short fiber has a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation again; bottle chip demand weakens with long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol rebounds slightly, with port inventory decreasing slightly but facing uncertainties in future supply. It is expected to be weak in the short - term but may stop falling [6]. - Urea inventory decreases, and the short - term market may have a phased rebound due to support from demand and coal prices [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC rises with market sentiment but has a weak fundamental situation, with potential supply increase and weak demand [7]. - Caustic soda prices fluctuate narrowly, with supply increasing and downstream demand weak, expected to run at a low level [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are strong due to cost increase and market news, with a long - term oversupply situation [8]. - Glass prices show a bottom - rising trend, affected by cost and downstream demand, with limited decline space [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Log: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, pulp, log, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. Spot cotton prices were stable, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price was slightly stronger, raising new cotton costs. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for cotton yarn spinning enterprises. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was a rebound with limited space. It's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start squeezing, with expected increased production. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential syrup import control. The market focused on the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. High - quality apples' prices were stable, while low - quality ones were weak. High - quality apples were in short supply, and low - quality ones had inventory pressure. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted down. New - season cold - storage initial inventory might be higher than expected. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Stimulated by the news of Sino - US leaders' meeting, RU&NR fluctuated up, and BR first declined then rose. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose slightly. Tire operating rate recovered slightly, and product inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, while butadiene rubber social inventory increased. The strategy is to bet on a rebound and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.055 billion tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was average. It's recommended to wait and see or do short - term operations [6] Log - The futures price was weak. Spot prices were stable. In October, New Zealand radiata pine quotes increased. Domestic importers' willingness declined. Port outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory was low. Low inventory supported prices. It's recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [4] - The coking coal price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [6] - The silicon manganese price follows the steel trend [7] - The ferrosilicon price follows the steel trend [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread's apparent demand is warming up, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. The hot - rolled demand is rising, production is flat, and inventory has decreased. Iron - water production is high, and downstream capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are high. The market may be strong in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are high and stronger than last year, while domestic arrivals are below the annual average, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Demand: Iron - water production is falling, and steel mills' profitability is low. There is a production - cut pressure. The market may fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - There is an expectation of a third price increase. Coking profit is average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Inventory is almost unchanged. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [4] Coking Coal - There is short - term production - cut pressure on iron - water due to environmental protection in Tangshan. Coal mine production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Production has slightly decreased, inventory has slightly decreased, and the price follows the steel trend [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Export demand is stable, and the price follows the steel trend [8]