国投期页 | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 学 | ★☆★ | | | 蜡 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 镍及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀容 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | ななな | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一铜价减仓震荡,价格基本收平在年线上方,临近长假,风控为先。今日现铜下调到77565元/吨,上海铜升 水180元/吨,节前备货情绪较好,SMM社库再减2.66万吨至15.51万吨,跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with potential for both upside and downside [1] - Soybean and soybean meal are not explicitly rated in a star system in the given context - Eggs are rated ★☆☆, representing a bearish outlook with a weak downward trend [1] - Pigs are rated ★☆★, suggesting a complex trend with some uncertainties [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pattern of soybeans and related products will shift from tight to loose in the short - term, and the market should pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes [2][3][4] - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and investors need to control risks, especially around the May Day holiday [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The price of domestic soybean futures has fallen from recent highs with reduced positions. Reserve soybeans are being released, and the supply of imported soybeans will increase after May Day. The supply pattern will shift from tight to loose [2] Soybean Meal - The supply pattern of near - term soybean meal will shift from tight to loose. The basis has fluctuated sharply. Futures prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term but may weaken when supply risks are resolved [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The domestic soybean and palm oil futures markets have seen significant position - reduction and price drops before the May Day holiday. The supply of soybean oil will increase after May Day, and palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The soybean supply shortage will ease after May Day. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories have decreased. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and the long - term supply shortage may be alleviated by new trade flows [6] Corn - The supply of corn in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory pressure has reduced. The market is currently divided, and the futures market may decline after the release of grain sources [7] Pigs - The pig futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price is declining. The future supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline in spot prices [8] Eggs - The price of egg futures and spot has declined. After May Day, the demand will be weak, and the egg production capacity will increase, so a bearish outlook is expected [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polyester: Not rated - Chlor - alkali: Not rated - Glass and Soda Ash: Not rated Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows different trends in various products. Some are affected by supply - demand changes, events, and seasonal factors, with some products having potential price fluctuations and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port has limited theoretical impact on methanol exports, but the methanol futures price rose due to sentiment. Import arrivals are low, and coastal areas had significant inventory reduction last week. The utilization rate of inland plants is decreasing, and production enterprise inventories are low. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream procurement slows. Future supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season, with supply - demand turning to be more relaxed [2] Urea - The urea futures price rose, and spot trading improved slightly. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weakening, while supply remains high. Production enterprise inventories decreased significantly this week. Daily production is expected to further increase, and supply - demand contradictions may emerge after the peak agricultural procurement season [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures continued to move sideways. For polyethylene, demand is weakening, and the market has a bearish outlook due to policy changes. For polypropylene, supply pressure is not high, but demand is poor, and the weak buying sentiment drags down the price [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price declined. There is no positive cost - side driver, and with the planned resumption of some plants and weak downstream demand, supply - demand contradictions may increase as the May Day holiday approaches [6] Polyester - The polyester industry's supply - demand is improving, but there is a potential risk of production cuts due to poor profits. For PTA, supply is expected to decrease, and there is a chance to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand drive is limited, and short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are affected by raw materials and demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC futures are running at a low level. Enterprise inventories have decreased, but domestic demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. For caustic soda, the operating rate has increased, and inventories are still at a medium - high level. With poor downstream profits, the price may also run at a low level [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures are oscillating at a low level. Factory inventories increased slightly last week, and the industry profit fluctuates narrowly. The price may have limited downside and is expected to be supported at around 1100 yuan. Soda ash futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term due to low - price restocking and planned maintenance in May, but there may be short - selling opportunities in the long - term [9]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [2]. Market Data Summary Commodities - Palm oil closed at 8218.00 with a weekly increase of 3.00%; corn at 2324.00 with a 2.10% increase; copper at 77890.00 with a 1.71% increase; etc. Gold decreased by 0.48%, PVC by 1.41%, and生猪 by 2.18% [3]. A - shares - The CSI 500 increased by 1.20%, the SSE 300 by 0.38%, while the SSE 50 decreased by 0.33% [3]. Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index increased by 6.73%, the S&P 500 by 4.59%, the French CAC40 by 3.44%, etc. [3]. Bonds - The 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2.54%, the 5 - year by 2.43%, and the 10 - year by 0.82% [3]. Foreign Exchange - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.36%, the US Dollar mid - price remained unchanged, and the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.28% [3]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive signals from the Politburo meeting, diverse domestic policy tools, central bank's MLF operation, fiscal policy support, and Fed rate - cut expectations [4]. - Bearish logic: Uncertain US tariff policy, low trading volume, stable LPR, pre - holiday risk - aversion, and lack of upward momentum [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, all expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Policy expectations of "timely RRR and interest rate cuts", reduced pressure on the bond market, central bank's net capital injection, and external uncertainty [4]. - Bearish logic: Higher - than - expected Q1 GDP, potential impact of tariffs on April data, and tight liquidity at the end of April [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected OPEC+ production increase, slowdown in US shale oil supply, approaching peak demand season, low US refined oil inventory, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East [5]. - Bearish logic: Disagreements within OPEC+ due to Kazakhstan's non - compliance, limited oil price rebound, expected supply increase, and weak market sentiment [5]. Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Meal - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Uncertain South American weather, high Brazilian soybean premium, low domestic soybean meal inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand [5]. - Bearish logic: Expected increase in Brazilian soybean arrivals, fast US soybean sowing, post - holiday supply expectations, and potential increase in domestic oil refinery operation rate [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 3 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Eased macro sentiment, strong May consumption, continuous reduction in aluminum ingot inventory, and increased downstream demand [6]. - Bearish logic: Approaching end of peak season, weakening downstream consumption, negative growth in aluminum exports, and limited upside space [6]. Chemicals Sector Soda Ash - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Increased maintenance plans in May, improved demand from photovoltaic glass, and pre - holiday restocking [6]. - Bearish logic: Long - term new capacity pressure, weak traditional demand, signs of weakness in the photovoltaic industry, low downstream stocking willingness, and high inventory [6]. Precious Metals Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, all expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and China's continuous gold reserve increase [7]. - Bearish logic: US Dollar Index rebound, reduced risk - aversion, policy uncertainty, and technical correction pressure [7]. Black Metals Sector Rebar - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 2 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Continuous inventory reduction, expected supply contraction, good spot market trading, and resilient external demand [7]. - Bearish logic: Decline in apparent demand, high iron - water production, limited cost support, and weak construction steel demand [7].

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月28日 黑色方面，钢材、铁矿石在前期强势上涨后出现调整，成材库存去化节奏减 慢，铁矿石盘面情绪同步转弱，双焦受原料补库力度减弱影响也震荡偏弱。政策 面稳增长预期依然存在支撑，但短期现实需求与宏观情绪脱节，导致黑色板块波 动加大。 能源方面，市场对全球经济放缓及需求疲软的担忧升温，同时美国成品油库 存回升、美联储偏鹰预期抑制了油价上行空间。尽管中东局势仍有不稳定因素， 但避险支撑逐步减弱，油价上行动能不足。天然气价格继续承压，受库存高企及 气温回暖影响，供需宽松格局未改。短期来看，能源板块情绪趋于谨慎，关注 OPEC+后续减产动态以及全球经济数据对需求端预期的进一步调整。 化工方面，聚酯产业链品种如PTA、乙二醇在成本支撑减弱下震荡回落，甲 醇、PVC等基础化工品亦受制于内需疲软和出口承压，盘面持续承压。尽管国 内稳增长政策仍在推进，但短期现实需求接力不足，化工板块陷入成本支撑减弱 与终端需求乏力共振的调整阶段。节后市场关注点将转向下游复工节奏、库存变 化及国际油价的指引作用。 农产品方面，油脂油料板块走高，受外盘反弹、供需预期改善及资金情绪回 暖带动。畜禽板块表现偏弱，消费提振 ...

上周原油市场总体震荡,布伦特06合约跌1.39%,SC06合约涨1.1%。周六美伊国统有效解除对伊朗 制裁、对伊朗核计划的和平性质建立互信开展第三轮谈判,中东地缘风险大方向趋于缓和。考虑贸 易战对经济增速、油品需求的压制以及OPEC+的增产行为均有待演绎,我们认为油价前期反弹空间 有限,临近震荡区间上沿下行风险将再次放大。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属继续偏弱调整。特朗普关税政策前景依然扑朔迷离，美元信用危机和全球政经局势不确 定性支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势。短期行情极致化演绎后价格波动放大,五一期间美国有非农等 重要经济数据发布,贵金属可能维持剧烈波动,节前注意仓位控制谨慎参与。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合履报 2025年04月28日 【原油】 上周五铜多震荡收阴，美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至70年代以来第四低。沪铜关注年线位置 表现,上期所铜库存流出快,注意跟踪现货及升贴水。五一假期备货结束后,通常国内涉铜消费转 淡。上周建议的2507合约高位空单持有。 【铝】 周五夜盘沪铝围绕两万窄幅波动。近期受益于五一前补库需求,社库延续较快去阵,总库存处于近 年同期最低水平 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bonds: ☆☆☆ [1] Core View of the Report - As of the week ending April 18, index futures rebounded, with IH2505 rising 0.04%, IF2505 rising 0.88%, IC2505 rising 1.45%, and IM2505 rising 2.06%. The impact of tariff policies on the fundamentals remains to be further observed, and there is a lack of boosting catalytic factors recently [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 6 points, the liquidity indicator 2 points, the valuation indicator 9 points, and the market sentiment indicator 6 points. For Treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 6 points, the liquidity indicator 7 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points. Last week, the main index futures contracts remained at a discount, with the basis value of the main IF2506 contract at 47.49 and a historical quantile of 3.24% [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy remained unchanged last week. In the long - term, the cumulative and year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise profits in March were positive and still in an upward repair trend. In the short - term, the impact weight of the exchange rate gradually decreased from the weekly high, and the repair of market risk appetite stalled and tended towards a wait - and - see attitude. In terms of positions, although the weekly average signal strength of IF and IH was high, the positions of IC and IM had risen to levels higher than those of IF and IH, and the comprehensive signal was in a neutral oscillation. For Treasury bond futures, the position factor showed some marginal repair last week, the end - of - month capital supply tightened, and under the situation of rising risk appetite and better - than - expected economic data, the short - term interest rate faced greater pressure, and the comprehensive signal was also in a neutral oscillation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Valuation - The PE (TTM) had a weekly increase of 0.58%, with a current value of 18.31 and a historical quantile of 0.85, and an index moving correlation of 0.89. The PS (TTM) had a weekly decrease of 0.14%, with a current value of 1.36 and a historical quantile of 0.85, and an index moving correlation of 0.94. The dividend yield (in the past 12 months) had a weekly increase of 1.35%, with a current value of 2.55 and a historical quantile of 0.95, and an index moving correlation of - 0.59. The PCF (operating cash flow TTM) had a weekly decrease of 2.14%, with a current value of 8.45 and a historical quantile of 0.80, and an index moving correlation of 0.36. The index futures score was 8 [2]. Market Sentiment: Index - The margin trading balance decreased by 0.07%, with a current value of 17914.52 and a historical quantile of 0.85, and an index moving correlation of 0.46. The short - selling balance increased by 0.29%, with a current value of 111.61 and a historical quantile of 0.16, and an index moving correlation of 0.30. The net purchase amount of northbound funds was - 67.75 with no weekly change and a historical quantile of 0.06, and an index moving correlation of 0.02. The selling amount of northbound funds was 494.16 with no weekly change and a historical quantile of 0.26, and an index moving correlation of - 0.28. The trading volume of A - shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 14.52%, with a current value of 3648.03 and a historical quantile of 0.66, and an index moving correlation of 0.46. The Treasury bond futures score was 6 [3]. Market Sentiment: Bonds - The yield to maturity of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased by 0.83%, with a current value of 1.69 and a historical quantile of 0.06, and a Treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.97. The VIX index decreased by 16.22%, with a current value of 24.84 and a historical quantile of 0.87, and a Treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.21. The credit spread (median) of all industries remained unchanged, with a current value of 53.38 and a historical quantile of 0.16, and a Treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.03. The trading volume of the Shanghai Treasury bond index decreased by 2.61%, with a current value of 10.50 and a historical quantile of 0.48, and a Treasury bond moving correlation of 0. The Treasury bond futures score was 8 [4]. Strategy Introduction - The product pool consists of stock index futures and Treasury bond futures. The goal is to use a multi - strategy model to select and allocate contracts in the financial futures market to achieve stable net value growth. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital supply in high - frequency financial data. The long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The position is mainly synthesized by considering the long and short positions of institutional investors [5]. Forecast Signals - The short - term model signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were 0.52, 0.51, 0.52, 0.51, 0.51, and 0.52 respectively. The position indicators were all 0. The long - term model signals were 0.52, 0.52, 0.54, 0.53, 0.5, and 0.51 respectively. The comprehensive signals were 0.53, 0.52, 0.51, 0.52, 0.52, and 0.51 respectively. There were no multi - short positions. The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top 2 comprehensive signal strengths and values greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom 2 and values less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Position data signals are blocked 7 days before the delivery date [6]. Last Week's Situation - From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the signals for IF, IH, IC, and T were all 0. The signal for TF was 0 from April 21, 23, 24, 25, and 1 on April 22 [8]. Recent Earnings Performance - The daily return was 0, the weekly return was 0, the monthly return was 0.38%, the 3 - month return was 1.42%, the 6 - month return was 3.35%, the annual return was 8.42%, and the 3 - year return was 25.23%. The maximum drawdowns were 0 for the week and month, 0.07% for 3 months, 0.51% for 6 months, 0.59% for a year, and 3.27% for 3 years [10]

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月25日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | なな☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇期价震荡调整为主。近期装置检修较多,国内产能利用率下调,五一节前下游采买需求增多 ...

| /// 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月25日 | | 原油 | ななな | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 文女女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 5月全国沥青计划排产232万吨，地炼计划排产124.4万吨，环比增加4.4万吨。综合温度与降水条件，需求李节性 向好预期暂难证伪,今年1-4月中旬流向收费公路领域专项债规模累计为340亿元,同比增长109亿元(+47%)，资金 对需求的实质提振或将在后续有所体现。截至4月24日,样本炼厂库存环比下降6.7万吨至89.7万吨;样本社会阵 环比上升1.4万吨至194.6万吨,整体库存水平环比下滑。BU预计震荡偏强。 ...

| | | | MILLA | SDIC FUTURES | WO STAND H JIY | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月25日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高回落。螺纹表需环比下滑，回暖仍相对缺乏持续性，产量基本持平，库存继续下降，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷供需趋稳，库存延续下降态势，本周铁水继续上升，随着吨钢和润润下滑，后期复产将明显放缓。从下游行业看，基建、制造 业有所好转，地产销售、 ...