安如泰山 信守承诺 关于中国对美国大豆进口关税下调的点评 国投期货研究院 10月30日，中美两国元首在韩国釜山举行会谈，这是习近平主席同特朗普总统时隔6年再度见 面,也是特朗普总统新任期内中美元首首次会晤。继中美马来西亚经贸磋商形成初步共识后、本次 会面成果显著,双方均表示将相应调整关税措施。 今日（11月5日）国务院关税税则委员会宣布，自2025年11月10日13时01分起，停止实施今年 税委会公告2025年第2号规定的加征关税措施。并调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税的公告》规定的加征关税措施，在一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。此公告利多，连柏期货继续上涨，截至收盘涨幅为1.49%、3周 时间从底部上涨200余点，多头趋势明显。 根据公告我们可以计算出，自2025年11月10日13时01分起，我国进口美豆的税率改为13%，但 商业进口美豆依然没有价格优势。金十数据显示，截至11月4日，目前美湾、美西与巴西的ONF到岸 价格相差不大,但关税相差10%。在关税制约下美国大豆依然没有进口价格优势,预计大豆商业买 船难以发生。 | | | 中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different products facing various supply - demand and price trends. Some products like PVC, methanol are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, while others like urea have some positive factors but still face supply - demand imbalances [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined as supply was overall loose, production enterprise shipments weakened, and downstream demand and purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fell. For polyethylene, cost support declined, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, cost support weakened, trade - sellers actively sold, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had prices fluctuating around 5400 yuan/ton, with inventory rising and supply increasing. Although the Sino - US tariff situation eased, it had limited impact on the market [3] - Styrene futures declined. New production devices were operating normally, and the future market outlook was not optimistic [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, with PTA facing inventory accumulation pressure. The demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol had a slight decline in weekly production, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory, and the strategy was to go short the spread [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure and followed raw material price fluctuations. It was expected to accumulate inventory in mid - to late November [4] - Bottle - chip demand decreased with the cooling weather, and the processing margin was under pressure. It was mainly driven by cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fell continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. High port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand suppressed the market, and the inventory inflection point was yet to appear [5] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Daily production increased, and agricultural demand improved slightly. However, the domestic supply - demand imbalance continued, and the market was expected to oscillate within a range [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was operating at a low level. Supply was expected to increase, demand was declining, and cost support was weak [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. Inventory was accumulating, and downstream demand was weak [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was oscillating. Supply increased, and demand from float glass decreased, so it was under pressure at a high level [7] - Glass futures declined from a high level. Production lines were shut down, and inventory was expected to decrease. Cost increased, and the decline space was limited [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), suggesting a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, recommending a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), meaning a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, advising a wait - and - see attitude [5][6] - Asphalt: Bearish (represented by three green stars), indicating a clearer downward trend and a relatively appropriate short - selling investment opportunity [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral (represented by white stars), showing a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [5][6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices declined overnight, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuate following the trend of the crude oil end, with the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to widen. The price of asphalt dropped, and the market bearish sentiment deepened. The LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC12 contract dropping 0.32% during the day. The U.S. government shutdown is about to break the 2018 - 2019 record, suppressing market risk sentiment. Last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 6.521 million barrels more than expected, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuate following the crude oil end. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened relative to high - sulfur fuel oil recently. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has increased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward momentum is expected to be limited. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market has basically digested the expected reduction in Russian supply, and the mid - term supply tends to be loose. Overall, the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to widen [2] Asphalt - The BU price dropped today, with the main contract falling 1.6%. Construction in the north is gradually coming to a halt, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The fundamentals show multiple bearish signals, and the market bearish sentiment has deepened, causing the BU price to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The previous upward trend of the LPG futures market has ended, and today's main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased. The improvement in chemical profit has increased demand, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant temperature drops in many places. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, while the port storage capacity ratio increased. The international oil price shows a weakening upward trend, and the LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆) [1] - **Slightly Bullish**: Soybean Oil (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★☆☆) [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean (☆☆☆), Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Egg (☆☆☆) [1] - **No Rating Information**: Live Pig [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term investment strategies and key points to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Soybean prices rebounded from the low after a few days of decline, and the spot purchase price was stable. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrowed. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback strength of domestic soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the adjustment of China's import soybean tariff policy, the soybean meal futures continued to rise by 1.49%. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US soybeans was changed to 13%, but there was still no price advantage. The increase in US soybean prices would raise the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal. Some USDA reports will resume in November. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans were consolidating after a rebound. Domestic soybean crushing was at a loss, and both oil and meal were strong, with meal slightly stronger than oil. The domestic soybean oil main contract was stronger than palm oil. Palm oil faced the risk of a short - term callback due to high inventory in Malaysia, higher - than - expected production in Indonesia, and weak export demand. Future attention should be paid to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil main contracts increased, with the trend of strong meal and weak oil continuing. The supply of rapeseed meal was expected to be tight due to the low inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills. The market focused on Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian economic and trade relations. A short - term strategy of being bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil was maintained [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures were oscillating weakly. The supply of new corn in Northeast China was stable, and the logistics was tight. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US corn was changed to 11% within the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement needed to be continuously monitored [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures rebounded sharply from the low, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The spot price continued to fall. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of second - fattening, the pig price was expected to have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Egg - Egg futures increased their positions by 40,000 lots strongly, with multiple contracts hitting new highs. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The increase in vegetable prices provided support for egg prices. The in - production inventory was still at a high level, and the chicken - chick replenishment in October was low. The short - term trend of the futures was strong, and opportunities to short on highs in the fourth quarter could be waited for [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted trending upward, green stars represent a predicted trending downward. One star means a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited trading opportunities on the market. Two stars indicate a clear long/short position with an ongoing market trend. Three stars signify a more distinct long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present. White stars suggest a short - term equilibrium in the long/short trend and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [9] - For example, propylene, plastic, PTA, methanol, PVC, and soda ash are rated ★☆☆; polypropylene, benzene - ethylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, urea, and caustic soda are rated ★★★; glass is rated ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation in the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and changing market expectations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contract declined. Shandong PDH plant shutdowns had limited support for supply. Supply was overall abundant, production enterprises' sales weakened, and downstream demand decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also declined. For polyethylene, cost support weakened, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, production enterprises cut prices, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene fluctuated around 5400 yuan/ton, with East China spot prices and Sinopec's listed price dropping. Port inventory increased, and the load of pure benzene plants rose slightly. The market was expected to be bearish in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures' main contract declined. New plants were in normal production, and product inflows increased. The short - term price was expected to remain weak [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, and PTA had inventory accumulation pressure. The downstream demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol's weekly output decreased slightly, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory in the medium - term [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure, and its inventory was expected to increase in mid - to late November. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the processing margin was under pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. Port inventory was high and continued to accumulate. Downstream demand was weak, and the market needed supply reduction and demand improvement [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. Production enterprises had slight inventory accumulation. The market was expected to continue range - bound [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and social inventory decreased, but the industry's inventory pressure was still high. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was expected to decline [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The industry's inventory was high, downstream demand was average, and cost support weakened [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash fluctuated. Supply increased, and inventory was high. The consumption of soda ash decreased due to float glass shutdowns, and the price was under pressure [7] - Float glass futures declined from a high level. Production line shutdowns led to inventory reduction expectations. Cost increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The market was expected to have limited downside [7]

Report Summary 1. Company Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2025, Vale's production was 94.4, with a 12.9% quarterly increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase; sales were 86.0, with an 11.2% quarterly increase and a 5.1% year - on - year increase [5] - BHP Billiton (100% equity) had a production of 70.3 in Q3 2025, a - 9.3% quarterly decrease and a - 1.8% year - on - year decrease; sales were 70.6, a - 8.0% quarterly decrease and a - 1.3% year - on - year decrease [5] - Rio Tinto (100% equity) had a production of 84.1 in Q3 2025, a 0.5% quarterly increase and a 0.0% year - on - year increase; shipping volume was 84.3, a 5.5% quarterly increase and a - 0.2% year - on - year decrease [5] - FMG's shipping volume in Q3 2025 was 49.7, a - 10.0% quarterly decrease and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [5] 2. Product - Specific Data Iron Ore Products in 2025 Q3 - PB block: production was 17.7, with a 24% year - on - year increase and a 58% quarterly increase [17] - PB fines: production was 33.4, with a 25% year - on - year increase and a 55% quarterly increase [17] - Robe River block: production was 1.3, with a 14% year - on - year increase and a - 4% quarterly decrease [17] - Robe River fines: production was 2.2, with a - 13% year - on - year decrease and a - 15% quarterly decrease [17] - Yandi fines: production was 10.8, with a - 9% year - on - year decrease and a 1% quarterly increase [17] - SP10 block: production was 2.9, with a - 49% year - on - year decrease and a - 65% quarterly decrease [17] - SP10 fines: production was 3.2, with a - 70% year - on - year decrease and a - 75% quarterly decrease [17] Another Set of Iron Ore Products in 2025 Q3 - Newman: production was 13.72, with a 3% year - on - year increase and a - 9% quarterly decrease [23] - Area C: production was 29.42, with a 2% year - on - year increase and a - 10% quarterly decrease [23] - Yandi: production was 3.5, with a - 21% year - on - year decrease and a - 9% quarterly decrease [23] - Jinbuba: production was 15.38, with an - 8% year - on - year decrease and a - 7% quarterly decrease [23] Other Iron Ore Products in 2025 Q3 - Tieqiao: production was 2.1, with a 31% year - on - year increase and a - 13% quarterly decrease [26] - West Pilbara fines: production was 4, with an 11% year - on - year increase and a 14% quarterly increase [26] - King fines: production was 3.3, with an - 11% year - on - year decrease and a - 6% quarterly decrease [26] - Mixed fines: production was 18.3, with a 6% year - on - year increase and a - 15% quarterly decrease [26] - FMG block: production was 2.3, with a 10% year - on - year increase and a 28% quarterly increase [26] - Super Special fines: production was 19.6, with a 1% year - on - year increase and a - 13% quarterly decrease [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On November 4, 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement to solicit public opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standards. After the implementation of the new standards, the conversion valuations of the main coking coal futures delivery products (Meng 5 and Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal) are expected to increase by 80 - 110 yuan/ton, and the premium reduction of low - sulfur high - quality coking coal produced in Shanxi and Australia is more significant. The full - moisture inspection will also bring some additional weight deductions. Once the solicitation draft is approved, it will take effect for unlisted coking coal contracts and increase the cost of delivery blending coal to a certain extent [1][2]. 3. Key Points from the Report - **New and Old Standard Comparison** - **CSR**: The new standard has a range of [60%, 65%), with a premium of 80 for ≥65%, while the old standard required ≥65.0% and deducted 50 for [60.0%, 65.0%) [2]. - **Sulfur Content**: For sulfur content in (1.30%, 1.60%], the new standard deducts 5 for every 0.01% increase, compared to 2.5 in the old standard; for [0.70%, 1.30%), the new standard gives a premium of 2.5 for every 0.01% decrease [2]. - **Moisture**: The new standard changes to full - moisture inspection (Mt), with similar moisture limits and calculation methods for weight deduction when Mt > 8.0% as the old standard, but different premium rules [2]. - **Delivery Product Conversion** - **Meng 5 Coking Coal**: The new standard results in a total premium of 70, while the old standard had a total deduction of 40 [2]. - **Shanxi Medium - Sulfur Coking Coal**: The new standard has a total premium of 110, compared to a premium of 30 in the old standard [2]. - **Shanxi Low - Sulfur Coking Coal**: The new standard gives a total premium of 205, while the old standard had a premium of 75 [2]. - **Imported First - Tier Coking Coal**: The new standard has a total premium of 260, compared to 120 in the old standard [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including electrolytic copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with their spot - futures spreads and changes [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 85335, down 1255; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 5, up 40 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21300, down 140; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2840, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17325, up 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, up 45. Recycled refined lead average price is 17275, up 100; refined - scrap spread is 50, down 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change of 20, while the average price data is not fully shown [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 281300, down 4100; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 520, up 150. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 269300, down 4100; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.73% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 119950, down 1000; 1 imported nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged. SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119650, down 950; SMM electrowon nickel premium is 100, up 50. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122350, down 800; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 2800, up 200 [1]. Silicon - The average price of a certain silicon - related product is 9050, unchanged; its premium is 1490, up 190 [1]. Polysilicon - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 80500, down 400; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 3320, up 1140 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78300, the difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, unchanged. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price data is not fully shown; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change, but the specific price data is not fully shown [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly defined in the given star rating description [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend with current appropriate short - selling opportunities [1] - Iron ore: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish drive but with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish bias but with poor operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a slightly bullish bias but poor operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] Core Views - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations and low market sentiment. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level weak oscillation. The coke and coking coal markets are showing a bullish oscillation, while the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are likely to have narrow - range oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand faces downward pressure in the off - season, with production at a relatively low level and inventory continuing to decline. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production is still high, and the de - stocking trend has slowed. The iron - making water production has dropped from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity is insufficient. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is short - term pressured, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level in the same period, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly to a new high this year, with port inventory showing a cumulative trend. The iron - making water production has continuously declined from a high level, and the steel mills' profitability has shrunk. After the macro - level positive news is implemented, the market shows a tendency to cash in on the positive, and the market is starting to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has hardly changed, with downstream customers making small - scale on - demand purchases and inventory slightly increasing. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coke futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. Although the price dropped rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting environmental protection standards, many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so the price is unlikely to continue to decline. The coking coal production has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have improved, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production - end inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections in the main coal - producing areas. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coking coal futures are at a discount to Mongolian coal, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly declined but remains at a high level, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The forward quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased, and the spot ore has been boosted by the trading floor. The manganese ore inventory has slightly decreased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium production has slightly increased, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and policy factors. Overall, it presents a cautious attitude towards the short - term market of these commodities, with many recommendations to wait and see [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market was dull. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high price and poor quality of apples may lead to slow inventory removal. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] Rubber (20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is easing, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream imported pulp inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and the domestic spot price was weak. Traders' import willingness decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]