| 11/11/2 | 国投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月22日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前盘面可操作性较差,以观望为主 隔夜美国股债汇下跌,贵金属延续强势,金价刷新新高。特朗普继续炮轰鲍威尔催促降息考验美联储独立 性,美国信用和经济前景双重风险下美元贬值加速,黄金 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年04月22日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价下跌,布伦特06合约跌2.03%。美伊核谈平稳进展让市场把关注点再次转向贸易战对 需求的负面影响。我们预估年内伊朗及委内瑞拉因制裁导致的城供风险在50-100万桶/天量级,考 感到OPEC+充裕的剩余产能及近期表现出的增产弹性,极端情形下3-5个月亦可弥补伊朗、委内瑞拉 供应减量。她缘批动带来的油价反弹具有短期性，考虑到贸易战对石油需求的潜在冲击及OPEC+增 产路径开启,油价阶段性超跌反弹的空间有限,临近震荡区间上边界后下行风险再次放大。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国股债汇下跌,贵金属延续强势,金价刷新新高。特朗普继续炮轰鲍威尔催促降息考验美联 储独立性,美国信用和经济前景双重风险下美元贬值加速,黄金配置价值凸显,全球黄金ETF处于大 幅增持阶段。金价中长期维持重心上移趋势,短期快速上涨后波动放大保持谨慎。 【铜】 隔夜沪倒减仓回吐当日涨幅，美铜也未守住大部分涨幅,伦铜恢复交易,关注其在9300美元附近表 现。海外警惕特朗普政府对美联储独立性的抗动,美国咨商会消费者信心指数转疲。国内现铜消费 给予价格支 ...

| 《八》 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月21日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 文女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周美国对伊朗的强化制裁及OPEC+最新威产补偿计划支撑市场反弹情绪，周六美伊在罗马举行的第二轮核谈平稳 落地,并将于26日举行第三轮会谈,中东地缘风险阶段性缓和。我们预估年内伊朗及委内瑞拉因制裁导致的城供风 脸在50-100万桶/天蛋皱,考虑到OPEO+充裕的刺余产能及近期表现出的增产弹性，极端情形下3-5个月亦可弥补伊 朗、委内瑞拉供应被量。她嫁扰动带来的油价反弹具有短期性,考虑到贸易战对石油 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: No clear indication [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: No clear indication [1] - Iron Ore: No clear indication [1] - Coke: No clear indication [1] - Coking Coal: No clear indication [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term bearish trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term bearish trend and the market is fermenting [1] Core Views - The overall market sentiment has improved, with the futures prices of various products showing rebounds or fluctuations. The market is mainly in a short - term volatile state, and the future trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade frictions [1][2][3][5] Summary by Product Steel - The rebar surface demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, with production slightly decreasing, inventory depletion accelerating, and the absolute value remaining low. The hot - rolled coil demand has improved, production has stabilized, and inventory has continued to decline. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The downstream industries such as infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, while the real estate sector remains weak. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand intensity and macro - policy changes [1] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment has slightly increased, and the domestic arrival volume has decreased but remains above the annual average. The terminal demand has resilience, and there is room for the resumption of hot - metal production in the short term. The market expects stimulus policies around the important meeting at the end of April. The overall trend is expected to be volatile, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - The intraday price has fluctuated upward. Affected by the tariff policy, the price follows the steel trend. The daily hot - metal production has slightly increased, and the coking profit has slightly risen after the first price increase. The overall coke inventory remains high, and the trade purchasing enthusiasm is low. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [3] Coking Coal - The intraday price has fluctuated upward. The coking coal mines have completed the working - face switch. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The overall coking coal inventory is basically flat, and the downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement. The Mongolian coal import situation is not good. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday price has slightly rebounded. Affected by the tariff policy, the price follows the steel trend. The absolute inventory level at Tianjin Port has increased, and the manganese ore price has declined. The hot - metal production has slightly increased, the supply of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday price has rebounded but remains weak. Affected by the tariff policy, the price follows the steel trend. The hot - metal production has slightly increased, the export demand has decreased marginally, and the metal - magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, the market transaction is average, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

| 《八八 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月21日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ななな | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纳威 | ★☆★ | 瓶片 | なな☆ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇盘面上涨。内地多套装置检修,加上节前下游采买需求增多,内地市场维持强势,港口受 ...

| 《》》 国投期货 | | 农产品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月21日 | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ななな | | | 玉米 | ★☆★ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆★ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆★ | | 【三一】 国产大豆价格呈现震荡调整的状态。国产大豆方面短期关注内蒙古大豆的故策拍卖情况。进口大豆方面虽然大 豆到港虽开始增加,不过由于通关偏慢,油厂开机率偏低,多数油厂提货限量,市场预计大豆供应偏紧的格局 预计在5月中旬左右能缓解,所以短期受注意进口大豆方面供应格局有一个先紧后松的切换。短期继续关注政策 端的表现以及大豆供需面的变动。 【大豆&豆 ...

| 《》 国投期货 | | 教商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月21日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ななな | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华舒 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉小悟上涨,整体仍维持窄幅震荡;国产棉现货交投平淡,现货基差较为坚挺,部分贸易雨够下调寄合杂品种基层;纯 棉纱市场交投不佳，下游则需采购。 国内3月份进口格花7.37万吨，同比（39.7万吨）降$2.33万吨。3月份，服装、鞋帽、针 线 织品类商品实售额为1240亿元，同比增长3.6%，1-3月累计零售额为3869亿元，同比增长3.4%，国内内 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 21 日 大类资产运行周报（20250414-20250418） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.09% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 0.08% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.99% | | 全球国债指数 | 1.02% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 1.12% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -0.54% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.05% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.62% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250106 -20250110）-非农新增人数 ...

【铝&氧化铝】 今日沪铝跟随有色整体反弹,现货升贴水暂稳，华东升水60元,华南升水20元。过去一周铝锭铝棒社库下降5.1 万吨和3万吨,总库存处于近年同期最低水平,五一节前备货和抢出口需求带动去库加速。沪铝短期基本面偏 强,测试两万关口阻力,但美国关税谈判和全球需求前景并不乐观,旺季过后消费环比面临回落,沪铝反弹高 度将受限。4月氧化铝厂集中检修阶段性彩响产量,近日现货成交价在2800-2900元区域暂时止跌企稳，但多数 企业将在检修后恢复生产,难改长期过利格局,盈加近30万吨的仓单库存限制氧化铝反弹高度,震荡中连高偏 空参与为主。 国技期货 | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆★ | | | 铝 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ☆☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镍及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | ...

| Millio | 国资期采 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月21日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | なな☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属高开后窄幅波动。上周鲍威尔参加活动讲话维持观望论调，认为高于预期的关税可能速味着通胀 上升和增长放缓,美联储将等待更多有关经济走向的数据再对利率做出任何调整,不要期待美联储出手干预 大跌的股市。特朗普则表达对鲍威尔不满，有官员称特朗普正在研究解雇鲍威尔是否为选项。美国和多个国 家正在进行关税谈判,关税政策会在暂缓执行的三个月内预筹释放消息,能否缓和以及对经济的实质冲击尚 难以预估,形势明明之前市场风险偏好将相对承压,大宗商品维持宽幅波动,黄金仍是逻辑相对确定的投资 标的。美元信用和经济前景双重风险下美元贬值压力大增刷新近三年新低后打开下方空间,黄金 ...