客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】周三（7 月 2 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.09%，收报 3454.79 点；深证 成指跌 0.61%，收报 10412.63 点；创业板指跌 1.13%，收报 2123.72 点。沪深两市成交额达到 13770 亿，较昨日 缩量 891 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 2 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3943.68，环比上涨 0.92。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 2 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1446.8，环比上涨 44.6。 7 月 2 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 855.2 元，环比上涨 29.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1170 元/吨，较上期价格涨 10 元/吨。供 应，唐山地区空气质量略差，部分焦化企业有降低负荷，同时原料焦煤价格企稳，焦企成本压力加大，下游钢厂 及贸易商采购积极性一般。需求，终端钢材需求弱势运行，高炉整体开工仍在高位，焦炭刚需有一定支撑。 焦煤：吕梁地区主焦煤（A11、S0.6、G88 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 1, 2025, A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index down 0.24%. The trading volume reached 1.466 trillion yuan, slightly down by 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., were affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and international trade situations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3457.75, up 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29, up 0.11%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92, down 0.24%. The trading volume was 1.466 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3942.76, up 6.68 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 1, the coke weighted index closed at 1393.2, down 34.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 823.9 yuan, down 27.8 [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises with long - term contracts may decrease, while those with market - based procurement may face higher costs. The probability of price increases after four rounds of price cuts is low [5]. - For coking coal, supply has tightened recently, and the inventory structure has improved. However, there is a strong expectation of coal mine resumption, and the terminal demand is under pressure [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected good harvest in Thailand and India, and the 22.1% decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of June, the US sugar price fell on Monday, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract declined on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Due to excessive rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the spot price in Southeast Asia has been firm. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Tuesday and fluctuated slightly at night. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase [6][7]. Palm Oil - On July 1, palm oil was in a volatile state, closing at 8336, up 0.07%. As of June 27, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 1, CBOT soybeans fluctuated. The good condition of US soybeans was offset by the rise in soybean oil prices. Domestically, the soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton on July 1. With sufficient soybean imports and high oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory will gradually increase, and it will run weakly [8]. Live Pigs - On July 1, the live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 13865 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures will run weakly [9]. Copper - Macroscopically, copper prices are supported by tight mines and low inventory, but the slowdown of Fed rate cuts and US tariff policies limit the upside. Fundamentally, overseas premiums drive LME copper inventory reduction, and domestic social inventory is lower than last year, so copper prices will continue to be strong [9]. Iron Ore - On July 1, the iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.32% to close at 708.5 yuan. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals have decreased, while steel mills' blast furnace profits are good, and iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On July 1, the asphalt 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 3562 yuan. The processing profit has improved slightly, but demand is still weak, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. Logs - On July 1, the log 2509 contract opened at 784, with a low of 778, a high of 789, and closed at 787, with an increase of 48 lots. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and demand is weak [11]. Cotton - On the night of July 1, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13775 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 62 lots [11]. Steel - On July 1, rb2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The black - series rebound has paused, and although there are rumors of production cuts, terminal demand is still weak [11]. Alumina - Under the situation of supply surplus in the third quarter, alumina prices will be mainly determined by cost. The price is under pressure due to the expected large - scale new production capacity in the future [12]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry limit. Although terminal demand is in the off - season, the processing link has maintained a certain level of demand. Low inventory is currently supporting aluminum prices, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on June 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rising. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by various factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The prices of both showed a downward trend on June 30 [2][3]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar was influenced by factors such as the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the adjustment of domestic spot prices, showing a volatile trend [4]. - The price of rubber was affected by technical factors and showed a volatile adjustment. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased [5]. - The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as US inventory data and domestic supply and demand. The domestic soybean meal market was in a weak and volatile state [7]. - The price of live hogs was affected by factors such as weak consumer demand and increasing supply, and the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. - The price of palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the export volume of Malaysia in June increased year - on - year [8]. - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market [8]. - The price of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, with an increase in supply and demand [9]. - The price of asphalt showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, but the demand was still weak [9]. - The price of cotton showed a certain change, and the inventory decreased [9]. - The price of logs was in a volatile state, and the demand was weak [10]. - The price of steel was under pressure due to the increase in supply and weak demand, and it continued to fluctuate [12]. - The price of alumina was affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. - The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, and it may be under mild pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 10465.12 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35% to 2153.01 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1486.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3936.08, a rise of 14.32 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On June 30, the weighted index of coke closed at 1408.45, a decrease of 6.2. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 832.7 yuan, a decrease of 9.4. The supply of carbon elements was still abundant, and the downstream iron - making in the off - season did not decline. For coking coal, the policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory continued to decline [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the increase in domestic spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract showed a volatile trend. It closed slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [4]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase, the Shanghai rubber showed a volatile adjustment on June 30. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased by 1.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased by 0.6%. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14.3% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean inventory as of June 1 was higher than expected, which put pressure on the near - term contracts. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal was large, and the demand was limited, so the price was in a weak and volatile state [7]. Live Hogs - On June 30, the live - hog futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The consumer demand was weak, and the supply of commodity pigs was expected to increase, so the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. Palm Oil - On June 30, the palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the K - line closed with a lower shadow. The export volume of Malaysia from June 1 - 30 increased by 4.52% compared to the previous month [8]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market. If the tariff negotiation results were good, the copper price was expected to rise; otherwise, it may fall [8]. Iron Ore - On June 30, the iron - ore 2509 contract closed up 0.21% at 715.5 yuan. The supply and demand both increased, and the short - term trend was volatile [9]. Asphalt - On June 30, the asphalt 2509 contract closed up 0.14% at 3564 yuan. The processing profit improved slightly, but the demand was still weak, and the short - term price was volatile [9]. Cotton - The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton on June 30. The cotton inventory decreased by 29 contracts [9]. Logs - The log 2509 contract showed a volatile trend on June 30. The demand was weak, and the inventory in ports increased slightly [10]. Steel - On June 30, the rb2510 contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton. The supply of steel increased, the demand was weak, and the price continued to fluctuate [12]. Alumina - On June 30, the ao2509 contract closed at 2985 yuan/ton. The supply was loose, the demand was weak, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On June 30, the al2508 contract closed at 20580 yuan/ton. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, the price may be under mild pressure [13].

Macroeconomic Situation - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guidance on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", with 19 measures such as setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care to support three major consumption areas [1] - The Central Financial Commission issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Accelerated Construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center", and the financial regulatory authorities and the Shanghai government issued a supporting action plan [1] - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan on the day [1] - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, revised down the 2025 GDP forecast, and revised up inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2] - UK's May car exports to the US dropped 55.4% year - on - year, and car production dropped 32.8% year - on - year, hitting a 76 - year low [2] - Trump decided to terminate trade negotiations with Canada and may impose new tariffs due to Canada's digital service tax, affecting the Canadian dollar and stock and bond markets [2] REITs Market - The first shopping mall public REITs of the year, CICC China Greentown Commercial REITs, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a fundraising scale of 1.58 billion yuan and a offline subscription multiple of 249 times [2] Stock Index Futures - On June 27, A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. The trading volume was 1.5411 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.1 billion yuan from the previous day [3] - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on June 27, closing at 3921.76, a decrease of 24.26 [4] Coke and Coking Coal Futures - On June 27, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1425.5, a rise of 35.5 [5] - On June 27, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 855.9 yuan, a rise of 39.8 [6] - The port coke spot price was stable, with supply and demand showing certain trends. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and the market was mixed [8] Sugar Futures - Brazilian sugar production in June is expected to decline significantly. The Zhengzhou sugar futures 2509 contract rose slightly at night [8] Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures showed narrow - range fluctuations at night on June 27. Inventory and warehouse receipt data had certain changes [9] Soybean Meal Futures - The international soybean market is affected by weather and planting area expectations. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure in the short term [9] Live Pig Futures - On June 27, live pig futures fluctuated. The market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, and the upside space is limited [10] Copper Futures - The Shanghai copper market's price rose under multiple factors, but there are still uncertainties [12] Cotton Futures - The Zhengzhou cotton futures' main contract closed at 13845 yuan/ton on Friday night. The cotton inventory decreased [12] Iron Ore Futures - On June 27, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.99%, closing at 716.5 yuan. The market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand [12] Asphalt Futures - On June 27, the asphalt 2509 main contract fell 0.03%, closing at 3561 yuan. The market is in a weak fundamental situation [13] Log Futures - The log 2509 contract's price and trading volume had specific performance on June 27. The spot price was stable, and the import volume decreased [13] Steel Market - The "Two New" policies are effective, and the state supports equipment renovation. The steel market demand is weak in the off - season [14] Alumina Market - The supply of domestic alumina is relatively loose, and the demand is relatively stable [14] Aluminum Futures - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season in the short term but is expected to improve in the long term [15] Lithium Carbonate Market - The price of lithium carbonate rose, but the market still has an oversupply situation [15]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（6 月 26 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.22%，收报 3448.45 点；深 证成指跌 0.48%，收报 10343.48 点；创业板指跌 0.66%，收报 2114.43 点。沪深两市成交额达到 15832 亿，较昨 日小幅缩量 196 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 26 日回调整理，收盘 3946.02，环比下跌 14.05。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1399.0 元，环比上涨 25.3。 6 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 826.8 元，环比上涨 27.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货提降，焦企保持小幅亏损，无主动提产动能，高频数据显示焦企开工下滑，供应收缩。需求， 淡季钢厂铁水产量暂时企稳，上周钢联口径铁水产量周环比小幅回升，炉料日耗有支撑。焦炭供应边际下滑，叠 加真实需求有所好转，焦企库存压力缓解。 客服产品系列•日评 月全球天胶产量料降 1.2%至 104 万吨，较上月增加 35.6%； ...

品种观点 股指期货 - 6月24日A股三大指数集体走强，沪指涨1.15%收报3420.57点，深证成指涨1.68%收报10217.63点，创业板指涨2.30%收报2064.13点，沪深两市成交额达14146亿，较昨日大幅放量2920亿 [1] 焦炭 焦煤 - 6月24日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价1355.6元，环比下跌26.5；焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价792.7元，环比下跌13.0 [2] - 焦炭受环保检查及焦化利润收紧等因素影响开工降低，钢厂原料备货低库存，刚需及采购需求走弱，河北及山东主流钢厂落实第四轮50 - 55元/吨提降 [3] - 焦煤因安全生产及环保检查放缓生产节奏，原煤供给环比走低，但矿山累库压力不减，库存处历史高位，钢焦企业放缓补库，中长期过剩格局难改 [3] 郑糖 - 美糖周一窄幅震荡小幅收低，受原油价格下跌影响多头平仓打压，郑糖2509月合约周二小幅走低，夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡 [3] - 2025年5月我国成品糖产量37.7万吨，同比增长59.1%；1 - 5月累计产量906.6万吨，同比增长4.9% [3] - 截止6月17日当周，对冲基金及大型投机客持有的原糖净空头仓位47141手，触及近年来高位，较之前一周增加27626手 [3] 胶 - 受原油价格大幅走低与东南亚现货报价下调等因素影响，沪胶周二震荡下行，夜盘因短线跌幅大受技术面影响震荡整理 [4] - 2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%；1 - 5月产量4.88962亿条，同比增2.8% [4] - 2025年5月中国合成橡胶产量69.9万吨，同比增加3.7%；1 - 5月累计产量353.4万吨，同比增加6.2% [4] 豆粕 - 国际市场6月24日CBOT大豆期货偏弱运行，美国中西部有利天气改善作物收成前景令价格承压，截止6月22日当周大豆优良率66%，低于预期和去年同期 [4] - 巴西全国谷物出口商协会预估6月大豆出口量达1499万吨，高于前一周预估值 [6] - 国内市场6月24日豆粕主力M2509收于3037元/吨，较前一交易日持平，5月中国从巴西进口大豆1211万吨，较去年同期激增37.5%，创下单月进口新高 [6] 生猪 - 6月23日生猪主力LH2509合约收于13905元/吨，跌幅0.29% [6] - 养殖端出栏情绪分化，中大猪认卖积极性提升，标猪认卖意愿一般，二育有滚动入场现象 [6] - 居民消费疲软，气温升高、饮食结构调整致鲜品猪肉走货差，商品猪出栏处于恢复期，猪源供应逐月递增，市场供需宽松，期货盘面上行空间受限 [6] 棕榈油 - 6月24日因中东局势缓和原油大幅回落，棕榈油期价跌2.28%，当日最高价8500，最低价8306，收盘8326 [7] - 印尼4月棕榈油出口量178万吨，较去年同期的218万吨下降，4月毛棕榈油产量448万吨，较3月增加，截至4月末库存量304万吨 [7] 沪铜 - 美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，表态偏鸽，市场对降息预期提升，短暂提振铜价 [7] - 铜库存不断刷新阶段性低位，为铜价提供支撑，短期内沪铜在供应收缩预期和需求可能回暖作用下，价格下方空间有限，但需求端疲软，上方空间或受限 [7] 铁矿石 - 6月24日铁矿石2509主力合约震荡收跌，跌幅0.42%，收盘价703元 [8] - 本期铁矿海外发运量环比回升，国内到港量同步增加，供应环比宽松，钢厂高炉利润尚可按需补库，铁水产量止跌回升，短期呈震荡走势 [8] 沥青 - 6月24日沥青2509主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅5.01%，收盘价3580元 [8] - 沥青产能利用率环比回落，库存下滑，供应维持低位，出货情况改善，因中东地缘局势缓和原油价格调整，成本端上行驱动消失，短期价格震荡运行 [8] 棉花 - 周二夜盘郑棉主力合约收盘13565元/吨，6月25日全国棉花交易市场新疆指定交割（监管）仓库基差报价最低430元/吨，棉花库存较上一交易日减少74张 [8] 原木 - 6月24日2507开盘816、最低802.5、最高818.5、收盘806.5、日减仓2093手，关注806 - 820区间波动 [9] - 6月24日山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格750元/方，江苏4米中A辐射松原木现货价格760元/方，较昨日持平 [9] - 1 - 5月原木进口量同比减少13.4%，5月进口量同比减少18.5%，港口原木库存逼近5个月新低，需求弱，供需无大矛盾，现货成交弱 [9] 钢材 - 6月24日rb2510收报2977元/吨，hc2510收报3099元/吨 [9] - 螺纹钢供应回升，需求季节性弱势，供增需弱基本面延续弱稳，钢价承压，但库存低位，现实矛盾有限，预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势 [9] 氧化铝 - 6月24日ao2509收报2903元/吨 [10] - 矿端无较大扰动，国内前期停产检修企业复产，但氧化铝价格走软利润下行，对供应形成压制，利润空间或继续缩窄，底部有成本支撑 [10] 沪铝 - 6月24日al2508收报于20315元/吨 [10] - 国内电解铝生产稳定，交易所 + 社会库存小幅累库，现货升水状态维持，未锻轧铝及铝材出口量走增，下游需求进入淡季，压铸企业开工率下行，价格运行上下有限 [10]

沪深 300 指数 6 月 23 日震荡趋强，收盘 3857.90，环比上涨 11.26。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（6 月 23 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.65%，收报 3381.58 点；深 证成指涨 0.43%，收报 10048.39 点；创业板指涨 0.39%，收报 2017.63 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11226 亿，较上 周五放量 549 亿。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 23 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1391.7 元，环比上涨 9.6。 6 月 23 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 818.2 元，环比上涨 12.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：产地煤价涨跌互现，煤矿成交有所好转，但焦价存下行预期，预计本周落地第四轮提降，焦企出货压 力较大，终端需求谨慎。 焦煤：部分事故影响的煤矿仍未复工，叠加环保影响，供应量持续收缩。受悲观预期影响，钢焦企仍保持谨 慎采购，但本周部分下游焦企适度增加采购量，煤矿销售压力缓解，部分去库明显。焦煤竞拍成交涨跌互现，市 场流拍率有所下 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（6 月 9 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.43%，收报 3399.77 点；深证成指涨 0.65%， 收报 10250.14 点；创业板指涨 1.07%，收报 2061.29 点；沪深两市成交额 12864 亿，较前一个交易日放量 1344 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 9 日强势，收盘 3399.77，环比上涨 14.41。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 9 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1340.4 元，环比下跌 16.1。 6 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 782.0 元，环比上涨 1.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：天津、吕梁以及唐山准一级冶金焦价格不变，日照准一级冶金焦下跌 40/吨。供应，焦化企业生产利 润亏损幅度缩小，目前焦企生产亏损 20 元/吨左右，焦化企业持续亏损，焦化企业开工负荷小幅下降，本周独立 焦企日均产量减少 0.27 万吨，247 家钢厂焦炭日均产量减少 0.04 万吨。需求，国内钢材需求回落，螺纹表需回 落 19.65 万吨至 2 ...

Variety Views - On June 5th, the three major A-share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3384.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.58% to 10203.50 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.17% to 2048.62 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 3877.56, a increase of 8.81 [1] - On June 5th, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1343.0 yuan, a increase of 7.4 [1] - On June 5th, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 759.1 yuan, a increase of 11.8 [2] Influencing Factors of Futures Prices - For coke, the off-season expectation drags down the demand. The daily output of molten iron continues the seasonal decline trend, and the support of the coke's in-furnace rigid demand weakens synchronously. Steel mills maintain low inventory operation of raw materials and still have a strong sentiment of suppressing prices from upstream. There is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts for coke spot this month [3] - For coking coal, events such as the export resource tax of Mongolian coal and the safety production month disrupt the coal supply. However, the policy - based production reduction has not yet come, the tightening range of raw coal production is not significant, and the coal mine inventory is still at a historical high. The downstream demand enters the traditional off - season, the operating load of steel and coking enterprises and the enthusiasm for raw material stockpiling have decreased, the atmosphere of coking coal auctions at the pithead is cold, and the transaction price has not been boosted [3] - For Zheng sugar, the US sugar oscillated and fell on Tuesday, affected by favorable crop prospects, especially in India and Thailand. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated and fell slightly on Thursday. The weather forecast shows that the monsoon rainfall in India may resume next week. Affected by this, the bears pressured the Zheng sugar 2509 contract to oscillate and decline at night. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 510,000 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons year - on - year; the monthly industrial inventory was 1.8197 million tons, a decrease of 253,500 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan Province, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.5558 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 64.32% (the sales - to - production ratio in the same period last year was 57.65%); the industrial inventory was 862,900 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons year - on - year. In May, the sugar sales were 238,900 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons year - on - year [3] - For rubber, due to the large increase in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and took a rest on Thursday under the influence of the technical side. The Thai meteorological agency said that from June 7th to 10th, heavy rain may cause flash floods. Supported by the deterioration of the weather conditions in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose at night. According to data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in May 2025, the total sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April this year and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [4] - For soybean meal, in the international market, on June 5th, the CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed higher. The export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that in the week ended May 29th, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 194,300 tons, an increase of 33% from the previous week and a decrease of 30% from the average of the previous four weeks, which was at the lower end of the market's estimated range. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in June would be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The soybean export volume in Brazil in May was 14.2 million tons. The agency maintained the outlook that Brazil would export 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025. In the domestic market, on June 5th, the soybean meal futures oscillated and closed higher. The main M2509 contract closed at 2,958 yuan/ton, with a increase of 0.65%. According to statistics, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 306,000 tons last weekend, an increase of 98,000 tons week - on - week. The oil refinery's operating rate has risen to over 60%, and the soybean meal inventory will continue to rise, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [5] - For live pigs, on June 5th, the live pig futures price oscillated. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.04%. Currently, the overall consumer demand of residents is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumptions, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is gradually recovering, the price - holding sentiment of large - scale pig enterprises is weak, the daily slaughter pressure has increased slightly compared with the previous period, and there are operations of reducing weight and increasing volume for slaughter. Retailers and some secondary fattening farmers have followed the trend of selling off. The supply of standard pigs and medium - large pigs has accelerated, and the supply of suitable - weight pig sources is relatively sufficient. The market is in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the live pig slaughter rhythm [5] - For palm oil, on June 5th, palm oil continued to maintain a small - range oscillating trend. By the close, the main contract P2509 K - line closed as a negative line with a lower shadow. The highest price on that day was 8,160, the lowest price was 8,064, and the closing price was 8,126, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous trading day. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1st to 31st increased by 3.07%, among which the production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 4.05%, Sabah increased by 2.1%, Sarawak increased by 1.27%, and the eastern part of Malaysia increased by 1.9% [6] - For Shanghai copper, driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation leading to the decline of the US dollar index, the concentrated release of the replenishment demand in the new - energy industry chain, and the fermentation of the news of production restrictions in smelters in Yunnan, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of narrow - range oscillation followed by a sharp rise. However, the overall driving force is limited, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant [6] - For cotton, the main contract of Zheng cotton closed at 13,390 yuan/ton on Thursday night. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6th, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quote was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 38 lots compared with the previous trading day [6] - For iron ore, on June 5th, the main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated and closed lower, with a decrease of 0.14%, and the closing price was 701 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both increased. Affected by the entry of terminal demand into the off - season and the decline of blast - furnace profits, the molten - iron output has decreased for three consecutive periods, and the demand may further decline. It presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] - For asphalt, on June 5th, the main 2507 contract of asphalt oscillated and closed lower, with a decrease of 0.4%, and the closing price was 3,497 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June has increased year - on - year, and the rainy weather in the south suppresses the demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and the asphalt shows an oscillating trend [7] - For logs, on June 5th, the 2507 contract opened at 758, the lowest was 746, the highest was 759.5, and it closed at 746.5, with a daily increase of 2,057 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. There is certain support at the spot end. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. The spot market price of logs on June 5th: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has increased slightly, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase, and the price - holding intention of traders [7][8] - For steel, on June 5th, rb2510 closed at 2,959 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,077 yuan/ton. The production of the five major steel products has decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the terminal demand for rebar has dropped significantly under the background of the switch between the peak and off - seasons and is weaker than the same period in previous years. The inventory of rebar in steel mills has accumulated. Recently, the macro - incremental information has been gradually realized in the market, and the trading logic has switched back to fundamental - driven. In the short term, steel is in a repair market under low valuation [10] - For alumina, on June 5th, ao2509 closed at 2,943 yuan/ton. The sentiment of the incident in the Guinea mining area has subsided, and the current impact magnitude is not enough to reverse the annual surplus of ore. The spot transaction of alumina is maintained at around 3,300 yuan. After the industry profit is repaired, the supply elasticity is large, and production has resumed. The domestic operating capacity of alumina has increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons month - on - month. The long - term surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged [10] - For Shanghai aluminum, on June 5th, al2507 closed at 20,010 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market sentiment may be affected by the tariff shock and suppress the aluminum price. At the same time, the unexpected reduction of domestic aluminum ingot inventory gives support to the aluminum price and the spot premium. Currently, some industries have shown an expectation of weakening in the off - season, but the overall decline is better than expected, and the demand resilience still exists. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will maintain an oscillating operation, and the lower support is relatively stable [10]

Variety Views - On June 4, the three major A-share indexes closed up collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to 3376.20 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87% to 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.11% to 2024.93 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong on June 4, closing at 3868.741, a环比 increase of 16.73 [1] - On June 4, the weighted index of coke rebounded after an oversold, closing at 1368.0 yuan, a环比 increase of 73.2. The weighted index of coking coal stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 770.4 yuan, a环比 increase of 51.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke - The second round of price cuts in the spot market has been implemented. US President Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. The abundant supply of raw materials has weakened cost support, and iron water production has declined from its peak. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 39 yuan/ton [3] Coking Coal - The fundamentals show an abundant supply, with stable mine production. The inventory of clean coal has continued to increase this period [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline, US sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as a large short - term decline and the stabilization of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract stabilized and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of the week ending May 27, hedge funds and large speculators held 19,503 net long positions in raw sugar, a decrease of 8,928 from the previous week, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. Long positions increased by 7,024 to 209,622, and short positions increased by 15,952 to 190,119 [3] Rubber - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline and short - covering, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival of overseas rubber supplies has continued to decrease recently, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.80% [4] Palm Oil - On June 4, palm oil rebounded weakly and returned to the range - bound pattern. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price on that day was 8210, the lowest price was 8102, and the closing price was 8130, a 0.81% increase from the previous trading day. A commodity research institution said that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Although the production in May remained resilient, there are signs that production has slowed down after a significant 21.5% month - on - month increase in April. It is expected that production will resume strong growth in the second half of 2025. Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [4][6] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on June 4, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Global soybean production is still promising, and the weather conditions in the US Midwest are generally good, boosting the crop yield outlook and restricting the increase in soybean prices. As of June 1, the sowing rate of soybeans in 2025 was 84%, higher than the five - year average of 80%. The National Association of Grain Exporters in Brazil estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. In the domestic market, on June 4, soybean meal futures oscillated in a narrow range. The main contract M2509 closed at 2938 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Supported by the high - opening and high - pressing volume of oil mills, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal has accelerated slightly. As of the end of May, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased to 306,000 tons, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival of soybeans [5] Live Pigs - On June 4, the futures price of live pigs oscillated weakly. The main contract 2509 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decrease. Currently, overall consumer demand is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperatures and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, the sales of fresh pork are poor. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter of the breeding end has decreased slightly. The slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises is relatively small, and the willingness of small - scale pig farms to sell at low prices is insufficient, slightly reducing the market supply pressure. However, based on the previous calculation of sow inventory, the supply of standard pigs in June may increase month - on - month, and the market is generally in a pattern of abundant supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - After the release of the US ADP employment data in May, US President Trump said that Powell must cut interest rates. The US dollar was under pressure, which was positive for copper prices. At the same time, overseas copper mine supply is tight. Zijin's Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended operations, which may affect production. The first - round long - term TC quote for mines and smelters in the middle of the year is - 15 US dollars/ton, increasing the long - term production reduction pressure on smelters. Technically, Shanghai copper is in an upward trend with the momentum to continue rising. On the supply side, although the supply in Shanghai has decreased slightly today, there will still be inventory in the future, and imported supplies will arrive tomorrow. On the demand side, downstream consumption was light on the first day after the holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined. As the price fell, the downstream's bargaining psychology was obvious. Overall, Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern under the interweaving of multiple and short factors. If it can effectively break through the previous high pressure level of 78,650 yuan/ton, it may open up further room for rebound; if not, it may face a callback risk under the pressure of increased supply and weak demand [8] Iron Ore - On June 4, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a 1.37% increase, closing at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both rebounded. Affected by the off - season of terminal demand and the decline in blast furnace profits, iron water production has decreased for three consecutive periods, and demand may further decline. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Asphalt - On June 4, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a 0.45% decrease, closing at 3506 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June is expected to increase year - on - year. The rainy weather in the south has suppressed demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and asphalt is expected to show an oscillating trend [9] Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,285 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6, the lowest basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in the National Cotton Trading Market was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 85 lots compared with the previous trading day [9] Logs - On Wednesday, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 766, with a minimum of 752.5, a maximum of 768, and closed at 758.5, with a daily reduction of 892 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. Supported by the spot market, the futures price rebounded. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. On June 4, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs at ports has increased slightly, and overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of spot prices, import data, downstream purchasing, and the willingness of traders to support prices [9][11] Steel - On June 4, rb2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3097 yuan/ton. Coke and coking coal led the black series to rise, and the repair of steel mill profits drove the expectation of replenishment. Although the data on May 29 showed that the average daily iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased month - on - month, the profitability of steel mills continued to improve. After the announcement of the increase in steel tariffs, the market's concerns have been partially released, and the prices of terminal finished products have stabilized and rebounded, further strengthening the rigid procurement demand of steel mills for coke and feeding back to the finished product end, leading to an increase [11] Alumina - On June 4, ao2509 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. The long - term production reduction capacity remains, and the incremental output from partial resumption of production and new production capacity is currently mainly used to supplement long - term contracts or directly flow to metallurgical or non - metallurgical terminals. It is difficult to form a quantitative accumulation in the spot circulation supply end, and the spot market price remains stable at a high level. Currently, in terms of trading, both supply and demand sides are in a relatively balanced state of price negotiation. In the future, attention should be paid to the operating behavior of traders based，on their predictions. Fundamentally, the supply is in a process of steady increase, and attention should be paid to potential sudden policies or events [12] Shanghai Aluminium - On June 4, al2507 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton. Affected by the US upgrade of steel and aluminum tariffs and the slight accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, the aluminum price declined. However, the relatively small arrival of aluminum ingots and the partial offset of the off - season demand by short - term terminal export rush will make the inventory pressure of aluminum ingots not obvious, so the low inventory will still support the price [12] Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous working day; battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 59,300 - 61,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 58,150 - 59,150 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continues to move down. From the demand side, the increase in production scheduling in June is extremely limited, and downstream material factories generally pick up goods in the form of long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials. On the upstream supply side, the slight rebound in the previous futures price has provided an opportunity for some non - integrated lithium salt factories to hedge and resume production, and there is an expectation of an increase in market supply. At the same time, with the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, the cost support is gradually weakening, which further suppresses the price of lithium carbonate. Overall, in the context of oversupply, the lithium carbonate market will still operate weakly in the short term, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [12][13][14]