Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a USDA monthly supply and demand data tracking for August 2025, focusing on cotton, soybeans, and corn, prepared by the Agricultural Products Division of Holly Futures [1] Group 2: Cotton Supply and Demand Global - Beginning stocks are 75.05 million bales, production is 116.62 million bales, imports are 43.58 million bales, consumption is 117.99 million bales, exports are 43.59 million bales, and ending stocks are 73.91 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.73 million bales, production by 1.8 million bales, imports by 1.1 million bales, consumption by 0.13 million bales, exports by 1.1 million bales, and ending stocks by 3.41 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 3.04 million bales, production decreased by 1.48 million bales, imports increased by 2.07 million bales, consumption increased by 1.42 million bales, exports increased by 1.7 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.54 million bales [3] China - Beginning stocks are 35.79 million bales, production is 31.5 million bales, imports are 5.3 million bales, consumption is 37.5 million bales, exports are 0.08 million bales, and ending stocks are 35.02 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.05 million bales, production increased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.5 million bales, consumption increased by 1 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 2.05 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 0.925 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports increased by 0.15 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.775 million bales [3] United States - Beginning stocks are 4 million bales, production is 13.21 million bales, imports are 0.01 million bales, consumption is 1.7 million bales, exports are 12 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.6 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.1 million bales, production decreased by 1.39 million bales, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports decreased by 0.5 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 1 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.85 million bales, production decreased by 1.199 million bales, imports increased by 0.002 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.063 million bales, exports increased by 0.1 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 0.4 million bales [3] India - Beginning stocks are 9.85 million bales, production is 23.5 million bales, imports are 2.9 million bales, consumption is 25 million bales, exports are 1 million bales, and ending stocks are 10.25 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.1 million bales, production remained unchanged, imports decreased by 0.1 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks increased by 0.5 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.55 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.05 million bales, consumption increased by 0.5 million bales, exports decreased by 0.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.4 million bales [3] Group 3: Soybean Supply and Demand - The soybean data is bullish. US soybean production and ending stocks are decreased due to the decrease in beginning stocks. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are slightly decreased [4] Global - Beginning stocks are 125.19 million tons, production is 426.39 million tons, imports are 185.86 million tons, crushing is 367.71 million tons, consumption is 425.1 million tons, exports are 187.44 million tons, and ending stocks are 124.9 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.06%, production decreased by 0.30%, imports decreased by 0.11%, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.02%, exports decreased by 0.10%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.93%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 8.57%, production increased by 0.57%, imports increased by 4.22%, crushing increased by 3.68%, consumption increased by 3.51%, exports increased by 3.13%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] United States - Beginning stocks are 8.985 million tons, production is 116.815 million tons, imports are 0.544 million tons, crushing is 69.127 million tons, consumption is 72.052 million tons, exports are 46.402 million tons, and ending stocks are 7.89 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 5.67%, production decreased by 0.98%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.10%, exports decreased by 2.30%, and ending stocks decreased by 6.52%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 3.58%, production decreased by 1.70%, imports decreased by 20.00%, crushing increased by 4.53%, consumption increased by 4.69%, exports decreased by 9.07%, and ending stocks decreased by 12.19% [4] China - Beginning stocks are 43.48 million tons, production is 21 million tons, imports are 112 million tons, crushing is 108 million tons, consumption is 133 million tons, exports are 0.1 million tons, and ending stocks are 43.38 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.39%, production increased by 1.69%, imports increased by 5.16%, crushing increased by 4.85%, consumption increased by 4.81%, exports increased by 25.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 36.111 million tons, production is 175 million tons, imports are 0.15 million tons, crushing is 58 million tons, consumption is 62.3 million tons, exports are 112 million tons, and ending stocks are 36.961 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 21.34%, production increased by 3.55%, imports decreased by 72.73%, crushing increased by 1.75%, consumption increased by 1.96%, exports increased by 9.70%, and ending stocks increased by 2.35% [4] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 25.247 million tons, production is 48.5 million tons, imports are 7.2 million tons, crushing is 43 million tons, consumption is 50.5 million tons, exports are 5.8 million tons, and ending stocks are 24.647 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 2.02%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports increased by 16.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 1.20%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 4.99%, production decreased by 4.72%, imports increased by 5.88%, crushing increased by 0.94%, consumption increased by 0.20%, exports decreased by 4.92%, and ending stocks decreased by 2.38% [4] Paraguay - Beginning stocks are 0.431 million tons, production is 11 million tons, imports are 0.02 million tons, crushing is 3.1 million tons, consumption is 3.3 million tons, exports are 7.7 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.451 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 50.70%, production increased by 7.84%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption increased by 0.76%, exports increased by 13.24%, and ending stocks increased by 4.64% [4] Group 4: Corn Supply and Demand - The corn data is bearish. US corn production and ending stocks are significantly increased. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are increased [5] Global - Beginning stocks are 283.11 million tons, production is 1288.58 million tons, imports are 192.16 million tons, consumption is 1289.15 million tons, exports are 200.86 million tons, and ending stocks are 282.54 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.38%, production increased by 1.97%, imports increased by 2.34%, consumption increased by 1.05%, exports increased by 2.58%, and ending stocks increased by 3.84%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 10.33%, production increased by 5.10%, imports increased by 4.66%, consumption increased by 2.43%, exports increased by 3.73%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.20% [5] United States - Beginning stocks are 33.152 million tons, production is 425.257 million tons, imports are 0.635 million tons, consumption is 332.247 million tons, exports are 73.028 million tons, and ending stocks are 53.769 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 2.61%, production increased by 6.60%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.71%, exports increased by 7.48%, and ending stocks increased by 27.51%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 25.99%, production increased by 12.61%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 4.39%, exports increased by 1.95%, and ending stocks increased by 62.19% [5] China - Beginning stocks are 194.183 million tons, production is 295 million tons, imports are 10 million tons, consumption is 321 million tons, exports are 0.02 million tons, and ending stocks are 178.163 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.51%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.56%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.09%, production increased by 0.03%, imports increased by 150.00%, consumption increased by 1.58%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 8.25% [5] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 7.988 million tons, production is 131 million tons, imports are 1.6 million tons, consumption is 94 million tons, exports are 43 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.588 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 5.89%, production decreased by 0.76%, imports increased by 6.67%, consumption increased by 3.30%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 55.08% [5] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 2.783 million tons, production is 53 million tons, imports are 0.005 million tons, consumption is 15.6 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.188 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 12.31%, production increased by 6.00%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.63%, exports increased by 7.25%, and ending stocks increased by 14.55% [5] Ukraine - Beginning stocks are 0.762 million tons, production is 32 million tons, imports are 0.01 million tons, consumption is 6.325 million tons, exports are 25.5 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.947 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 145.16%, production increased by 4.92%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 1.61%, exports increased by 6.25%, and ending stocks increased by 58.33%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 18.69%, production increased by 19.40%, imports decreased by 50.00%, consumption increased by 10.96%, exports increased by 21.43%, and ending stocks increased by 24.28% [5]

Report Title - Polyethylene: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is transitioning to the peak season [1] Core View - Although supply is at a high level, the pressure is expected to ease as more units undergo maintenance. Downstream demand continues to rise, purchasing power strengthens, social inventory turns from increasing to decreasing, and demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, boosting market sentiment. The overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still weaker than the same period in previous years. In the short term, as more units undergo maintenance, supply is expected to decline, inventory will continue to be depleted, and demand will transition to the peak season, resulting in an improvement in the supply - demand margin. The polyethylene market is expected to trend strongly overall [3] Content Summary Price - This week, domestic polyethylene spot prices showed mixed trends, with a weekly fluctuation range of 8 - 64 yuan/ton. Supported by positive macro factors and stable overall supply, LDPE and LLDPE prices remained firm. HDPE prices slightly declined due to increased supply of some products and poor sales. Specifically, HDPE film was reported at 7969 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week; LDPE film was at 9583 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton; LLDPE film was at 7466 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [3] Supply - This week, the domestic polyethylene supply changed little, with a production volume of 66.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 86.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The production this period involved the restart of units at Yanchang Zhongmei, Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical, and the new maintenance of units at Guoneng Xinjiang and Fushun Petrochemical. Next period, market supply is expected to decrease due to new planned maintenance at Fushun Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Lianyungang Petrochemical, etc., and the non - restart of previously maintained units [3] Downstream Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of the polyethylene downstream industry was 39.47%, a slight increase of 0.35% from last week, but it is expected to drop by 0.57% next week and is still weaker than the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 13.82%, a recovery of 0.75% from the previous period. In the shed film market, order follow - up was slow, and although corporate operations improved, they were still at a low level year - on - year. For mulch film, due to some enterprises receiving tender orders, the production level slightly increased, driving the improvement of the industry's operating rate. The operating rate of the PE packaging film industry was 49.07%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. Currently, only some rigid - demand orders are delivered periodically, short - term contracts for daily chemical packaging are insufficiently supplemented, industrial packaging consumption is weak, terminal inventory - building willingness is low, and the number of order production days has decreased, resulting in insufficient support for the operating rate and a slight month - on - month decline [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that due to high macro - uncertainty, copper prices continue to fluctuate. The international situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has high uncertainty, leading to cautious market sentiment. Technically, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, with short - term possible continuation of the trend and poor medium - term fundamentals. The supply - demand situation shows high inventories and insufficient demand, resulting in weak spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The US - Russia talks on Saturday morning had no clear progress. The US dollar fell and the euro rose on Friday, with most non - ferrous metals dropping at night, led by aluminum. European and Ukrainian leaders went to the US, increasing international situation uncertainty. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose slightly during the day, and all non - ferrous metals declined. Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper fell, while domestic spot copper rose [1]. - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 78,950, and the spot price was 79,430. The intraday high of Shanghai copper was followed by a decline, with a spot premium of 480 points. The spot basis premium rose to 225 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount widened to -$94 this week, indicating weak external spot demand [1]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the inventories of US copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper all increased, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to $48.5, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio remained at 8.13, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 207 points, with the external price - to - ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - LME copper oscillated and fell slightly, trading around $9,744. Shanghai copper rose first and then fell, closing at 78,950, with a neutral technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Market Indicators | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 12 | 7.1856 | 250 | 47 | | - 83 | 8.13 | | Aug 13 | 7.1816 | 180 | 47 | | - 87 | 8.10 | | Aug 14 | 7.1822 | 180 | 47 | | - 79 | 8.07 | | Aug 15 | 7.1890 | 210 | 48.5 | | - 89 | 8.10 | | Aug 18 | 7.1837 | 480 | 48.5 | | - 94 | 8.13 | [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as good July sales of Chinese cars and new - energy vehicles, possible Fed rate cuts, and the confirmed meeting time between US and Russian presidents, leading to most non - ferrous metals rising. However, the People's Bank of China's significant net currency withdrawal and the decline in the month - on - month auto production and sales in July have added some market complexity. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a large impact on the aluminum market, and the short - term may see fluctuations with increased volatility [1]. - Currently in the off - season, there is insufficient spot demand. The hype around anti - involution in the alumina market has significantly subsided, and this round of speculation may end [2]. 3) Summary by Related Information Market Performance - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE) closed at 20,700 today, and the spot price was 20,630, with a spot discount of - 70 points. The spot discount this week remained flat at - 40 yuan, and spot trading improved. London Aluminum (LME) declined, and domestic spot aluminum also fell. The LME spot inventory decreased this week, with a spot discount of - 2 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio dropped to 7.93, indicating the domestic market's weaker performance compared to the overseas market [1]. - Technically, crude oil tumbled today, LME aluminum oscillated and slightly declined, trading around 2,614 dollars. SHFE aluminum rose slightly, closing at 20,700, with improved technical patterns. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE aluminum increased, and market sentiment improved slightly [2]. Inventory Situation - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose, while the LME spot inventory decreased [1]. Other Information - The month - on - month auto production and sales in July decreased, but the year - on - year growth continued to be above 13%. The RMB appreciated and the US dollar depreciated during the day, and the market sentiment was strong, leading to all non - ferrous metals rising [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as strong July auto and new - energy vehicle sales in China, possible 3 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the confirmation of the meeting time between US and Russian presidents. However, the central bank's significant net currency withdrawal and the month - on - month decline in auto production and sales in July also impact the market. Overall, copper prices are in a volatile state [1]. - Technically, the short - term may be volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are not good. There is an oversupply of copper in the US and weak spot demand during the off - season in China [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Most non - ferrous metals rose due to improved market sentiment. Shanghai copper, international copper, and domestic spot copper rose, while London copper fell. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 79,020, and the spot price was 79,190, with a spot premium of 170 points. The spot basis premium rose slightly to 150 points, but spot trading was poor. LME spot discount widened to - 70 dollars, indicating weak foreign spot demand [1]. - The inventory of US copper and London copper increased significantly this week, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased slightly, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased slightly to 43.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper remained at 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper rose to 306 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - London copper fluctuated slightly downward, trading around 9,755 dollars. Shanghai copper rose sharply, closing at 79,020, with an improved technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both increased, showing strong market sentiment [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (Dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 5 | 7.1889 | 250 | 45.5 | - 53 | 8.09 | | Aug 6 | 7.1850 | 180 | 45.5 | - 67 | 8.15 | | Aug 7 | 7.1810 | 180 | 45.5 | - 63 | 8.10 | | Aug 8 | 7.1894 | 210 | 45.5 | - 66 | 8.09 | | Aug 11 | 7.1862 | 170 | 43.5 | - 70 | 8.09 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively introduces palladium, including its physical and chemical properties, main uses, production sources, downstream applications, hazards, protective measures, spot market conditions, and new - variety listing rules. It also shows that palladium is an important and versatile metal with high import dependence in China and significant investment potential [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Variety Introduction - Physical properties: Palladium is a silver - white metal similar to platinum, with a density of 12.023 g/cm³, a hardness of 4 - 4.5, good ductility and plasticity, a melting point of 1554℃, and excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. It has excellent hydrogen absorption [4]. - Chemical properties: Palladium is chemically stable at normal temperature, but will form oxides at high temperatures. It can react with halogens, organic compounds, alkalis, and salts, and easily forms coordination compounds [4][5]. 3.2. Main Uses The largest use of palladium is in the automotive industry, especially in the three - way catalytic converters of vehicle exhaust systems to reduce harmful emissions [6]. 3.3. Production Source - Global reserves: In 2023, global palladium reserves were 71,000 tons, with South Africa accounting for 88.73% and Russia for 7.75% [7]. - Global production: In 2023, global production was 210 tons, with Russia accounting for 43.81% and South Africa for 33.81% [7]. - China's situation: China's natural reserves of platinum - group metals are 87.06 tons. Annual domestic production is about 1.3 tons, and annual imports are about 30 tons, indicating high import dependence [7]. 3.4. Downstream Applications - Jewelry: Palladium is suitable for making jewelry alone or in alloys due to its luster, ductility, and corrosion resistance [10]. - Chemical: It is an excellent catalyst in organic synthesis, and can be used for hydrogen storage and separation, electroplating, and fine chemical synthesis [10]. - Automotive: Palladium is crucial for vehicle exhaust purification and has potential applications in fuel - cell vehicles [11]. - Electronics: It is used in manufacturing MLCC electrodes, semiconductor equipment, sensors, etc. [11][12]. - Medical: Palladium compounds are used in biological marking, cancer treatment, dental restorations, and drug synthesis [12]. - Other: Palladium is used in aerospace, aviation, and other fields, and is also an investment variety [13]. 3.5. Hazards and Protective Measures - Hazards: Inhalation, skin contact, and ingestion of palladium can cause health problems, and palladium can also pollute the soil, water, and air [14][15]. - Protective measures: Personal protection includes wearing protective equipment; regular health monitoring is necessary; and environmental protection requires proper wastewater treatment [15]. 3.6. Spot Situation - Price trends: Domestic and international palladium prices, as well as overseas futures and spot prices, show similar trends. The palladium market is small, with low liquidity and large price fluctuations (over 5 times since 2015) and is currently at a medium price level [20]. - Consumption: China's palladium consumption accounts for about 15% of the global total, and China is highly dependent on imports [23]. 3.7. New - Variety Listing Rules Newly - listed varieties generally have a negative impact on spot prices. When the futures price drops to near the spot cost price, there will be obvious cost support. The aluminum - alloy futures are expected to follow the same pattern [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The copper market is under fundamental pressure, and copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. The US economic recession risk and interest - rate cut expectations are rising, and the market sentiment is weak. The high inventory and insufficient subsequent demand in the US copper market, along with poor spot demand during the off - season in the Shanghai copper market, contribute to the unfavorable outlook [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On Friday, China's July economic data fell short of expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was disappointing with significant downward revisions of the previous two months' data. The dollar tumbled at night while the RMB soared, and the market weakened. However, positive data from China's automotive and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day, with most non - ferrous metals rising, including Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and domestic spot copper [1]. - Technically, LME copper oscillated slightly higher around $9670, and Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting a low, closing at 78330. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Premium - This week, the inventory of US copper and LME copper increased significantly, while the inventory of Shanghai copper decreased slightly. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped slightly to $50.5, suggesting poor domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - $49 this week, indicating weak external spot demand. The copper price ratio of LME to Shanghai copper rose to 8.17, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 180 points, with the external market ratio slightly higher than the domestic market, showing weak market sentiment [1]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/Ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/Ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | July 29 | 7.1808 | 220 | 51.5 | - 54 | 8.04 | | July 30 | 7.2120 | 520 | 48 | - 52 | 8.06 | | July 31 | 7.2093 | 580 | 48 | - 47 | 8.11 | | August 1 | 7.1981 | 40 | 52.5 | - 51 | 8.09 | | August 4 | 7.1783 | 180 | 50.5 | - 49 | 8.17 | [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has turned weak, and the outlook for copper prices is poor. The anti - involution speculation in the futures market has ended, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates this week is extremely low, with the US dollar rising continuously. The market remains weak, and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Market Performance Summary - **Price Changes**: Shanghai copper closed at 79,000, and the spot price was 79,270. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot premium dropped to 270 points. The spot basis premium dropped to 95 points, and spot trading was poor. LME spot premium narrowed slightly to a discount of - 54 dollars, indicating weak external spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8.05, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 270 points [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: US copper inventories increased significantly this week, London copper inventories rose, and Shanghai copper inventories decreased slightly [1]. - **Exchange Rate and Premium**: The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to 51.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. Group 4: Technical and Supply - Demand Analysis - **Technical Analysis**: London copper fluctuated slightly higher, trading around 9,800 dollars. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom and fell slightly, closing at 7,9000, with a weak technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the off - season, the spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor. With the approaching implementation of US tariffs, the demand for London and Shanghai copper has decreased significantly [2].