Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No explicit investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a pattern of increasing supply, weakening demand, and mixed inventory trends. Due to rising raw material costs, narrowing profit margins, and seasonal factors, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Macro - level policies aim to maintain liquidity, but terminal demand remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Steel Product Situation - **Supply**: The output of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills was 191.04 million tons (+2.82 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.51 million tons (+1 million tons). Some steel mills completed maintenance, leading to increased iron - water output and a significant rise in EAF operating rates [4]. - **Demand**: Demand was seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 174.96 million tons (-25.48 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 308.34 million tons (-2.43 million tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar as of January 9 was 8.03 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 2.65 million tons [4][46][50]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory accumulated, while hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08 million tons), and the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83 million tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 9, the basis of the rebar main contract was 146 yuan/ton (-32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was -24 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Price**: The national average price of rebar was 3337 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3306 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation The cost - side support strengthened. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lüliang was 1403 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton; and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Steel Mill Situation - The profitability rate of steel mills declined to 37.66%. The iron - water output was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The EAF operating rate was 72.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.34%, and the EAF capacity utilization rate was 56.91%, a week - on - week increase of 1.76% [4]. - As of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 89.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65% [29]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Situation - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million units, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 units; sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. New - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 units; sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [69]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.5% year - on - year, housing completion decreased by 18% year - on - year, commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and funds in place decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [72][73]. 3.5 Export Situation In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons. From January to November, cumulative steel exports were 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen significantly, and market sentiment remains optimistic Meanwhile, the tense international situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a general rise in the metal market, including a sharp increase in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Aluminum prices, both domestic and international, have also increased [3] - Technically, LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have reached new highs, with a strong technical pattern. SHFE aluminum has seen a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. In the short term, aluminum prices are strong and may continue to rise [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Environment - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the tense international situation has raised risk - aversion sentiment, causing a general rise in the metal market [3] - The unclear situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the improved prospects of Fed interest rate cuts have further boosted market optimism [4] Aluminum Market Data - Today, SHFE aluminum closed at 24,650, and the spot price was 24,340, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 310 points. This week, SHFE aluminum has risen significantly, with a spot discount of - 120 yuan, indicating oversupply and poor spot trading [3] - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the alumina inventory has increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased, while the LME inventory has decreased. The LME spot has turned to a premium of 8 US dollars, indicating a significant improvement in overseas spot demand [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate has risen, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices has slightly increased to 7.7, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [3] Technical Analysis - Today, WTI crude oil has fluctuated, while LME aluminum has risen sharply to a new high, trading around 3,168 US dollars. SHFE aluminum has also risen sharply to a new high, closing at 24,650, with a strong technical pattern [4] - SHFE aluminum has seen a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest, rising with increased positions, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment [4] Future Outlook - In the short term, aluminum prices are strong and may continue to rise. The future focus should be on the divergence between SHFE aluminum and SHFE copper fluctuations and the situation of spot demand [4]

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.34% (+5.71%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.43 million tons (+4.42). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 35.42% (+0.33%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 26.12 million tons (+0.31). The operating rate and daily average output of mines increased month-on-month, as did the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal washing plants. After the import surge of Mongolian coal at the beginning of the year, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week, and overall supply increased [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons (+2.07), the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31% (+0.37%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.8 days (-0.08), and those in 230 independent coking plants were 13.68 days (+0.07). The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills continued to rise, the daily output of molten iron increased month-on-month, the available days of coking coal in steel mills slightly decreased, and those in coking plants slightly increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.9501 million tons (+1.67), that of all sample independent coking plants was 10.7168 million tons (+19.18), that of steel mills was 7.9773 million tons (-4.54), that of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.1965 million tons (-9.36), and that of major ports was 2.998 million tons (-1.5). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines and coking plants have slightly accumulated, while those of coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills have slightly decreased, and the purchasing sentiment has weakened [4]. - Summary: Last week, the supply and demand of the coking coal market both increased. Affected by positive factors such as the warming of macro - sentiment and the reduction of production capacity in production areas, the futures market rebounded from a low level. Previously shut - down coal mines gradually resumed production, and the operating rate of mines in the main production areas was 85.34%. Domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily output of molten iron continued to rise, and the coke output remained stable for the time being. Coking and steel plants still mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and there was no large - scale centralized restocking. Overall, domestic coal mines have returned to normal production, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply has increased, while downstream coking and steel enterprises have poor profitability, and there is no large - scale centralized restocking. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (-31), the capacity utilization rate of all sample independent coking plants was 72.69% (+0.97%), the daily output of all sample independent coking plants was 635,700 tons (+0.85), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 468,800 tons (+0.05). The loss of the average profit per ton of coke in coking plants continued to expand, and there was still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut for coke, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable for the time being. The main reason was that the sales situation had improved recently, some coking enterprises increased production, and the coke output of steel mills slightly increased [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons (+2.07), the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31% (+0.37), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.02 days (-0.08). The daily output of molten iron continued to rise, the blast furnace operating rate continued to increase, the inventory usage cycle of steel mills' coke slightly decreased, and there was a rigid demand for coke [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all sample independent coking plants was 860,700 tons (-5.53), that of major ports was 1.841 million tons (+4.01), and that of 247 steel mills was 6.4573 million tons (+1.74). The inventory of coking plants slightly decreased, while those of steel mills and ports slightly increased, and the overall social inventory of coke slightly increased [5]. - Summary: In terms of supply, the overall production level of coking enterprises remained stable for the time being. Due to the improved sales situation, some coking enterprises increased production. Coupled with the increase in the coke output of steel mills, the overall supply slightly increased. In terms of demand, the profitability of steel mills has improved, the resumption of blast furnaces has increased, the daily output of molten iron from steel mills has risen, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke. Overall, the current supply and demand of coke both increased. Recently, the strengthening of raw materials supported the futures market to be relatively strong, but the market still has an expectation of a fifth - round price cut. It is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the winter storage restocking demand [5]. Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) [7][11][15][19] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis of coking coal futures contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the inventories of 314 sample coal washing plants, 523 sample mines, 247 steel mills, and all sample independent coking plants, the port coking coal inventory, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants nationwide, and the customs clearance vehicle numbers of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [22][26][32] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data including the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis of coke futures contracts, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventories of all sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and port coke, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills [60][62][64]

研究报告 – PVC 报告 2026 年 1 月 金融研究院 探底回升，宽幅震荡 摘要 2025 年 PVC 市场在国内需求收缩—供给缓慢扩张—出口被动放量—库存 高位钝化—成本中枢下移这一链条中反复寻找均衡点。 今年突出的变化有三点：一个是外需权重显著提升，出口在内需疲弱时承 担了"逆周期稳定器"的角色。二是产能扩张的工艺与区域结构变化，新增产 能更多来自沿海乙烯法及一体化装置，这改变了行业成本曲线的形态与边际供 给弹性。其三，库存从'高位但可消化'转向'高位且黏性'——库存的季节 性波动仍在，但其对价格的边际解释力被出口与成本所部分稀释，交易逻辑更 强调"库存变化率"而非库存绝对水平。 展望 2026 年：价格中枢难以脱离弱内需、强外需、供给弹性收敛这三因 素博弈。我们建议以"供给弹性—需求弹性—贸易弹性"的三维框架来组织交 易与风险管理：供给弹性取决于新增产能兑现、装置检修与环保约束；需求弹 性取决于地产链修复速度以及基建、制造业对冲能力；贸易弹性取决于印度等 关键市场的政策与新增产能节奏。在此框架下，策略上宜更偏向"区间+事件 驱动"，并以基差、月差与跨品种成本逻辑来构建组合。 一、行情回顾 2025 ...

Report Title - Corn Oscillates and Rebounds, with Optimism for the Far Month [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The corn market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Grain - using enterprises are advised to purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders are advised to buy low and sell high [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2603 contract continued its rebound trend. The spot price was relatively stable, with the FOB price of corn in Bayuquan around 2310 yuan/ton and the arrival price of corn in Shekou Port around 2450 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated weakly, and the discount of the futures price narrowed. The main starch 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded. The starch price was stable at 2800 yuan/ton in Weifang Jinyu Corn Starch, and the basis also oscillated weakly [3] New Grain Sales and Inventory - New grain sales showed regional differentiation, and farmers were reluctant to sell. As of January 8, the national grain sales progress was 5%, 2% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the progress in Northeast China was 49% (6% faster), in North China was 45% (2% slower), and in Northwest China was 65% (1% slower). As of January 2, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 153.8 tons, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, and the weekly shipping volume was 59.3 tons, dropping from a high. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 47.8 tons, rising continuously, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 29.4 tons, falling. The inventories of downstream processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of January 9, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 354 tons, rising continuously but at a low level in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.1 days, rising [3] Grain Substitution and Import - There was a lack of grain substitution, and the import of corn continued to rise. The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, making substitution unfeasible. In November, the import of corn was 55.5 tons, a 55% increase from the previous month and an 85% increase from the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 184.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%. The imports of barley and wheat also increased [4] External Market and Global Inventory - The US corn in the external market oscillated and rebounded recently. The USDA's December supply - demand report increased the export of US corn and reduced its ending inventory, but there was still pressure of increased production and inventory compared to last year. The global ending inventory of corn was slightly reduced, a 4.85% decrease compared to last year [4] Feed and Deep - Processing Demand - Feed demand slowed down, and deep - processing demand was insufficient. Pig prices rebounded, and the loss in pig farming narrowed significantly. As of January 2, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 48.35 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 34.59 yuan per head. The production capacity of sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, but farming continued to incur losses. In December, the sales volume of chicks increased, and the culling of old hens reached a recent high. In November, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease but a 6% year - on - year increase. Deep - processing enterprises had insufficient demand. The processing profits of starch processing enterprises were mostly in the red, and the operating rate continued to decline to 59.37% as of January 9. The starch inventory was 1.125 million tons, at a high level in the same period. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to lose money, and the operating rate dropped to 62.04%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises increased, and that of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the low domestic inventory provides some support. The Shanghai lead price may continue to show a volatile trend. Later, as the pressure of imported lead increases and inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, the upward pressure on lead prices will gradually increase. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continued. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead production increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the recycled refined lead production increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Although there was still a supply gap of lead concentrate, the primary lead production resumed after maintenance, and the operating rate remained at a high level. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 37.6%, a week - on - week decline of 7.8%. In winter, there were frequent haze days, and environmental protection control potentially restricted the output of recycled lead smelters. The scrapping volume of waste lead - acid batteries decreased, and the tight supply of raw materials was difficult to ease. After the holiday, the price of waste batteries increased slightly, the profit margin of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and the uncertainty of environmental protection disturbances in winter was relatively large, so the supply of recycled lead remained at a low level. Some enterprises actively reduced production. For example, a medium - sized recycled lead smelter in the southwest region planned to reduce production by 20% - 30% in January to cope with raw material pressure. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - Last week was a holiday, and many battery enterprises had holidays, so the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises weakened. The automotive battery was approaching the traditional replacement peak season, while the traditional consumption peak season of electric bicycle batteries was coming to an end. At the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more cautious, and the production of electric bicycles declined. Coincidentally, some lead - acid battery enterprises had holidays during the New Year's Day holiday, and the weekly operating rate decreased. After the holiday, the terminal consumption was still weak. With relatively strong lead prices, downstream enterprises purchased on demand, the trading volume was relatively limited, the circulation in the spot market was average, and the discount widened slightly [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week ending December 31, the domestic lead spot basis discount widened, and the lead spot basis was a discount of 75 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 43.42 US dollars last weekend [4]. 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week ending December 31, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 6,975 tons to 241,900 tons. The LME inventory had declined for two consecutive weeks from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 909 tons to 28,004 tons. As of December 29, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 17,400 tons, and the inventory rebounded month - on - month, ending three consecutive months of decline, but it was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4].

Report Title - Log Weekly Report: Winter Stockpiling, Demand Shows Differentiation [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium to long term, with short - term demand showing differentiation. The 2603 contract maintains a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, and the price may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026. The improvement of the main 2603 contract depends on new support policies in the real estate industry and the expectations of cost reduction and demand recovery after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Directory Log Industry Data Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, while the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. Overall, log spot prices are running weakly, with a general increase in the Jiangsu market. Futures: As of the close on January 7, the main log contract 2603 closed at 782 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter compared to late December 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% [2] Supply - In December 2025, about 55 log - carrying vessels departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous month, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in November. Among them, 42 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from 1.452 million cubic meters in November. Recently, the number of vessels bound for China has increased, and arrivals will be concentrated in mid - January, with no sign of reduced overseas supply yet. The expected arrival volume of logs at 13 ports from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026: 15 New Zealand coniferous log - carrying vessels are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 67%; the total arrival volume is 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 66.8%. The actual arrival volume of logs at 13 ports from December 22 to December 28, 2025: 9 New Zealand log - carrying vessels were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 306,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 218,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 42%. In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07% [2] Inventory - As of December 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.19 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the North American log inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Overall, the downstream demand is weakly stable. The high arrival volume continuously pressures the port log inventory and spot prices. The reduced arrivals in mid - November created conditions for inventory reduction. Recently, the inventory decreased due to the reduced previous arrivals, but it will face a new round of arrival impact [3] Demand - From December 29 to January 4, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% compared to the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 3.58% compared to the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11.07% compared to the previous week. Previously, the arrival pressure was continuously high, and the downstream demand was suppressed by seasonal factors. According to Steel Union statistics, the recent demand shows differentiation. In the Yangtze River Delta, due to less arrivals and winter stockpiling demand support, the prices of most radiata pine specifications increased and were transmitted to the downstream timber squares. In the north, it has entered the off - season of demand, the price of knotless timber decreased, and the timber squares in Tianjin had promotions, highlighting the weak demand pattern [3] Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource concentration characteristics, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. Domestic demand is accelerating to focus on high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source is continuously accumulating. The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs and black - type futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between the downstream construction timber squares of logs and coke reaches 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry boosts the sentiment of the log futures market. The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the United States in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby driving the acceleration of log inventory reduction. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback. The EU Commission announced to impose higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on cardboard originating from China. The General Administration of Customs announced the resumption of importing US logs, but the total amount of US logs that can arrive at ports and complete customs clearance in the short term will still be limited. New Zealand is expected to gradually slow down its supply to China before the Chinese Spring Festival due to the extended summer forest shutdown time, and the long - term supply tightening expectation is rising. The prices in the southern Yangtze River Delta may maintain a stable and rising trend, while the prices in the northern market may be stable and weak [4] Strategies and Suggestions - From July to early September 2025, the futures market rebounded significantly, and the spot prices strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a differentiation trend of strong near - term and weak long - term. In the short term, the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively strong compared to the near - term contract. As of January 5, 2026, the ex - works price range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in January was 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a slight decrease compared to December, with the cost support shifting down. The short - term demand shows differentiation, and the winter stockpiling in the Yangtze River Delta still provides support. The 2603 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. It is expected that around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. In the long - term, whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on whether the real estate industry will introduce a new round of support policies and the expectations of cost reduction and demand recovery after the Spring Festival [5] Log Spot Price Situation - The report provides the spot price trends of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port from 2023 to 2026, showing the price fluctuations of different specifications of radiata pine logs over the years [7] Log Import - The report shows the port shipping volume and the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs from 2023 to 2025, and the monthly import volume of Chinese logs from 2021 to 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] Log Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of Chinese logs at different ports and different tree species from 2022 to 2025, with the coniferous log inventory covering radiata pine, spruce, fir, North American timber, and other coniferous tree species [21][22] Log Outbound - The report shows the daily average outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 to 2026, and the weekly average outbound volume of logs at Shandong and Jiangsu ports from 2023 to 2026 [24][27] Log Demand - The report provides the weekly outbound volume of cement from 2023 to 2026, the weekly shipment volume of concrete from 2020 to 2025, the actual in - place funds of real estate development enterprises from 2020 to 2025, and the correlation between radiata pine log spot prices and glass and rebar index contract closing prices [30][33]

融 研 究 院 聚酯：上强下弱局面延续 期 货 金 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 研 究 院 PTA：成本带动及下游聚酯端韧性支撑下，PTA表现相对偏强。值得注意的是，随着终端负荷回落，后期聚酯负荷检修增加， 上方或有压力，整体预计小幅偏强波动； 货 金 融 MEG：国内还处于高供应状态，港口库存持稳，政策宽松引导下，原料提升带动MEG反弹，预计低位震荡局面，绝对价格下方 不太悲观； 业 期 短纤：短纤库存压力不大，随着成本拉涨加工费压缩，下游纱厂备货不佳，绝对价格跟随原料震荡局面； 弘 瓶片：库存压力不大，开工率有所提升，加工费尚可，跟随原料波动，相对偏强； 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 Ø PX格局良好，利润较高 研 究 院 1月初，美军突袭委内瑞拉，油价多空分歧明显，盘面波动加剧震荡局面。而下游化工品依旧较为强势。25年末福佳大化扩产30万吨产能，而剔除辽 阳石化的30万吨、洛阳石化的23万吨长停装置后，25年PX产能呈现负 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The soybean No.1 market is expected to be oscillating strongly, while the soybean meal market will continue to fluctuate. The domestic sales of soybeans are accelerating, with over half sold in Northeast China, and the price remains firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory is decreasing, and the import auction is on hold. The oil mill's operating rate is decreasing, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, and the demand is strong [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Market Performance of Soybean No.1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 2605 rose after the holiday and then fell back after hitting resistance around 4300. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4200 yuan/ton to around 4320 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price remained at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3070 yuan/ton to around 3050 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price discount widened [4]. b. Supply and Demand of Domestic and Imported Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The sales of domestic soybeans are accelerating, with the remaining grain ratio in Northeast China dropping significantly. As of January 2, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang dropped to 47%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it dropped to 52%, a 3% decrease; in Henan, it dropped to 57%, a 3% decrease; in Shandong, it dropped to 58%, a 4% decrease. In the context of the expected tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned to supplement the market [4]. - **Imported Soybeans**: The auction of imported soybeans has been suspended since December 19. China's procurement of soybeans has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease but still a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of January 2, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.301 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 8.236 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decrease [4]. c. International Soybean Market - The US soybeans rebounded after a continuous decline. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report, which made few adjustments in December. On the one hand, the subsequent implementation of China's soybean purchase contracts still depends on Sino - US trade relations. On the other hand, there is an increasing production pressure of new - season soybeans in South America, and some Brazilian traders' withdrawal from the "Soybean Ban" may increase the export potential of Brazilian soybeans [5]. d. Oil Mill and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills decreased again. As of January 2, the operating rate of oil mills was 48.23%, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.1025 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The soybean meal output was 1.385 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1702 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, remaining at a relatively high level; the unfulfilled contracts of soybean meal were 5.798 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.4 days, a slight month - on - month decrease, at a high level in recent years [5]. e. Feed Demand - **Pig Farming**: The pig price rebounded, and the breeding loss significantly narrowed. As of January 2, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 48.35 yuan per head, a significant narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan per head, also a significant narrowing. The productive sow capacity continued to be adjusted down. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, indicating a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Poultry Farming**: The egg price was low, the breeding was continuously in loss, and the culling increased. The inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to January 4, foreign and domestic precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio continuing to decline. The year - end correction in precious metals was driven by capital behavior, market panic, and CME's margin hike, leading to profit - taking and a long - position stampede. In the short term, geopolitical events, upcoming PMI, and non - farm payroll data may affect precious metal prices. The medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, but overall volatility may increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View - **Price Performance**: From December 22 to January 4, COMEX gold futures fell 1.03% to $4341.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 7.08% to $72.27 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.27% to 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 11.92% to 17,074 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Economic Data**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a two - year high. However, due to the previous government shutdown, the market is cautious about the reliability and comparability of these data [4][21]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three dissenting votes. The market expects the near - term rate - cut pace to slow or pause, while the policy path in H2 2026 depends on economic data and the new Fed chair's policy stance [4][23]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US shows a diplomatic negotiation attitude on the Ukraine issue but takes military action in Venezuela, which seriously impacts international relations. Geopolitical instability is a major factor affecting precious metal prices [4][25]. 3.2 Macro - **GDP Growth**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate was 4.3%, with a total GDP of $7.79 trillion. Personal consumption, exports, and government spending contributed to growth, while non - residential fixed investment slowed, residential investment decreased, and private inventory investment dragged down growth [21]. - **Market Attitude**: Despite the strong GDP data, the market is cautious due to the previous government shutdown causing a data vacuum [21]. 3.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectations - **FOMC Meeting**: In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but three members opposed it. The change in wording in the policy statement indicates a higher threshold for future rate cuts [23]. - **Dot - Plot Projection**: The median projection in the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026. Fed Chair Powell said the current policy rate is in the "neutral" range [23]. - **Political Uncertainty**: Powell's term ends in May 2026. Some potential successors may support more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a split in market expectations [23]. 3.4 Geopolitics - **Ukraine Issue**: Trump and Zelensky reached about 95% consensus on a "20 - point peace plan" but the territorial issue remains unresolved. The US and Russia have formed a working group [25]. - **Venezuela Situation**: The US launched an air strike on Caracas on January 3, which was strongly opposed by the international community. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on this [25]. - **Greenland Claim**: Trump's claim to Greenland has drawn strong protests from Denmark [25].