Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the float glass futures showed a trend of "bottoming out and then rebounding oscillating". The market in December will continue the pattern of supply - demand game. The supply - side cold - repair capacity may accelerate, and the demand side will enter the seasonal off - season. The futures price is likely to oscillate in the range of 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy and focus on the cold - repair implementation rhythm and inventory reduction situation [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Trend - In November, the main contract of float glass futures (FG2601) showed an oscillating repair trend of "bottoming out in the early stage and rebounding at the end of the month". The closing price on November 28 was 1053 yuan/ton, up 4.9% from the end of October. The whole - month low was 1002 yuan/ton, and the maximum rebound amplitude was 5.1%. The monthly trend can be divided into three stages: continuous bottom - seeking from November 1 - 18, stop - falling and stabilization from November 19 - 24, and oscillating rebound from November 25 - 28 [5]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Structure - In November, the linkage between the float glass futures and spot markets increased significantly. The spot price oscillated and rebounded synchronously with the futures. By November 28, the national average spot price was 1090 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the end of October. The basis of the FG2601 contract changed from +45 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 37 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Regionally, there were obvious differences. Overseas, the import and export volumes decreased, and the overseas market had limited support for domestic prices [6]. 2. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals 2.1 Supply Side - In November, the supply side of float glass showed the characteristics of "local contraction, overall looseness". The average monthly start - up rate was 74.51%, down 2.3 percentage points from October. The weekly output decreased from 111.02 tons to 110.39 tons. Due to profit differentiation, the industry was difficult to form a concentrated production cut. The inventory first increased and then decreased, and was still at the second - highest level in the same period of history [16][17]. 2.2 Demand Side - In November, the demand side of float glass showed the differentiated characteristics of "marginal improvement in completion, weak terminal procurement". The real - estate completion area increased, driving a slight rebound in architectural glass demand, but the new - start area decreased significantly, and the medium - and long - term demand growth was insufficient. The downstream deep - processing link was dull, and the demand in other downstream fields was mixed [23]. 2.3 Cost Side - In November, the cost of float glass showed a downward trend, and the cost support for price weakened. The average production cost was 1085 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from October. Cost differentiation further intensified the structural differences on the supply side [37]. 3. Market Outlook for December 2025 3.1 Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - side contraction is expected to accelerate in December. The demand side will enter the seasonal off - season, and the total demand is expected to decline by 5% - 7% month - on - month. The inventory is expected to continue the slow de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [45]. 3.2 Cost Side - In December, the cost of float glass is expected to remain stable, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced. The average production cost may rise to 1090 - 1100 yuan/ton, forming a bottom support for the futures price [46]. 3.3 Technical Aspect - Technically, the FG2601 contract is in the middle of the 1020 - 1070 yuan/ton range. The short - term bullish momentum is still there, but the rebound momentum has weakened. The upper pressure level is 1065 yuan/ton, and the lower support levels are 1030 yuan/ton and 1020 yuan/ton [46]. 4. Operation Strategy Suggestions for December 4.1 Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton range. - Medium - term strategy: Pay attention to long opportunities brought by unexpected supply contraction. - Hedging strategy: Producers can sell - hedge above 1060 yuan/ton, and deep - processing enterprises can buy - hedge below 1030 yuan/ton [47].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The main corn 2601 contract has seen a rare continuous sharp rise and formed a squeeze market, with a premium over the far - month 2605 contract. The spot price has risen steadily but with a small increase, and the corn basis has continued to weaken. The main starch 2601 contract has followed the corn's continuous rebound, and its basis has weakened in an oscillating manner. The new grain sales are accelerating, the market's grain - grabbing and stockpiling sentiment is rising, but the main futures price of the 2601 contract has shown an irrational rise. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods on dips and moderately increase safety reserves, and traders buy low and sell high. Do not chase the high of the 2601 contract, and pay attention to the low - price opportunities of the 2605 contract [4][7] Group 3: Summary of Key Factors Supply - side Factors - **Grain - grabbing and hoarding in the Northeast**: Due to the serious differentiation of grain quality in North China, the damaged corn offsets the impact of the national corn production increase. Industrial players go to the Northeast to stockpile grain actively. The cold weather makes corn easy to store, and farmers are reluctant to sell, expecting price increases. As of December 4th, the national grain sales progress was 36%, 5% faster than the same period last year, with the Northeast region being 34%, 9% faster [4] - **Port inventory and downstream demand**: As of November 28th, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 136900 tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 53500 tons, a decline from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 18100 tons and continued to decline, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 33600 tons, a slight increase. Downstream deep - processing procurement has slowed down, while feed enterprises are still increasing their inventory. As of December 5th, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 275400 tons, a slight increase, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 28.67 days and continued to rise, but still lower than the same period in previous years [4] - **Grain substitution and imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed to around 177, and substitution is still not feasible. In October, domestic corn imports rebounded significantly, with 35900 tons imported, a five - fold increase from the previous month and a 114.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 129200 tons, a 90.2% decrease year - on - year. Imports of barley and other grains decreased month - on - month. If the domestic corn supply is tight in the later stage, there may be a possibility of expanding and resuming imports [5] - **Foreign market situation**: The US corn in the external market has continued to rebound in an oscillating manner, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report [5] Demand - side Factors - **Feed demand**: Pig prices are low, and pig farming is suffering large losses. As of December 5th, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was -$259.39 per pig, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was -$167.69 per pig, both with increasing losses. The adjustment of the sow inventory is slow. In September, the national sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30000 from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. The sow inventory of large - scale farms increased in October. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to decrease. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen, egg - laying hen farming has continued to lose money, chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old hens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens in production decreased slightly. Feed demand is relatively strong. In October, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [6] - **Deep - processing demand**: The processing profits of starch processing enterprises have been differentiated, and the operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. As of December 5th, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 61.66%, a month - on - month increase. Starch inventory remains at a high level and continues to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises are still in a loss, but the operating rate is at a high level of 70.28%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises is insufficient, while the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6]

研究报告—月报 金融研究院、投资咨询部 报告日期 聚酯板块系列专题报告行情篇 MEG：远期供应宽松的笼罩下，11月下旬期价降至近三 年低位。随着部分装置停车，乙二醇负荷自高位有所 回落。12月油制装置检修增加，乙二醇负荷或仍有小 幅回落预期。海外装置方面，远洋货较为充裕，进口 量或将继续走高。近期乙二醇供需局面有一定好转， 期价下方空间料有限。 短纤&瓶片：短纤开工负荷处于高位区间，库存良性， 现货加工费环比上月有所回落，下游纱厂刚需备货为 主；而瓶片依然是聚酯行业中供需压力最大的环节， 负荷在 8 成附近波动，随着原料成本的上移及需求季 节性回落，瓶片现货加工费有一定的收窄。聚酯负荷 整体韧性，延缓原料端的累库预期。 | | | 2025 年 12 月 3 日 （PTA/MEG/聚酯）： 累库预期延后 PTA：11月整体平衡状态。由于四川能投、英力士均在 12月下才会重启，逸盛宁波也延长检修，供应损失量 明显提升，12月累库预期下降，预计整体宽平衡附近 波动，绝对价格不悲观。 张永鸽 Tel：02552278992 Email：zhangyongge@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F0282934 ...

上下震荡，大豆缺乏指引 2025年12月3日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约延续上下震荡走势。现货价格稳定，富锦大豆市场价在4060元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面升 水维持。 豆粕主力面临换月2605合约，处于震荡走势。豆粕现货价格小涨，张家港43粕由2980元/吨涨至3020元/吨附近。基 差震荡走强，盘面升水收窄。 （1）国产大豆销售较快。新季国产大豆微减产至2090万吨，且华北等地品质分化，东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。据钢联： 截至11月28日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至74%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至73%；河南大豆余粮占比落至76%；山东大豆余粮 占比落至81%。近期国储大豆拍卖暂停。 （2）油厂大豆到港较高，港口大豆库存充足。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月28日，油厂大豆到港量为240.5万吨，环比再增；港口大豆库存为957.6万吨，环比回升。 （3）美豆 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, analyzing their prices, supply, demand, cost, inventory, and providing后市研判 [6][8] Industrial Silicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygenated was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the 421 oxygenated was 9,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton [6][11] Supply - Xinjiang's开工率 remained stable with a slight expected increase next week; Northwest regions had little change; Yunnan's开工率 was expected to decline in December due to higher costs; Sichuan's开工率 would further decrease in December. Overall, production increased slightly [6] Demand - Polysilicon's weekly开工率 decreased, with mixed production expectations in December; organic silicon's开工率 increased slightly, with a potential decline in December; aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 was stable, supported by good terminal demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6] Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6] Inventory - As of November 27, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [7] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and high inventory is being depleted slowly. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with attention on northern开工 changes and downstream production cuts [7] Polysilicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The futures main contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Silicon material enterprises were firm on price stability. In November, two leading enterprises significantly reduced production, and the polysilicon output decreased significantly compared to October. The weekly开工率 decreased, and the production expectations in December were mixed, with a limited decrease compared to November [8] Demand - Terminal demand is weak, with component prices weakly stable, and silicon wafer and battery prices continuing to fall. The silicon wafer segment has reduced production, but there is no significant reduction in procurement plans. In October, polysilicon imports were 1,446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, exports were 1,547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8] Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8] Inventory - As of November 28, the polysilicon factory inventory was 278,300 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons from the previous week [8][26] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are weak, and inventory remains high. Supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations, it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term, with attention on policy implementation [8] Downstream Markets Silicon Wafers - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased compared to the previous week. Prices are approaching most manufacturers' cash cost lines, and significant production cuts are expected in December [30] Batteries - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared to the previous week. The battery market is weakening, with increased price declines and weakened demand support. Some leading enterprises may lock in inventory to support prices [34] Components - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components remained unchanged from the previous week. The component market is weakly stable, with a weak distributed market. Leading enterprises hold firm on prices, while second - and third - tier manufacturers still sell at low prices [38] Organic Silicon - As of November 28, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The industry's开工率 increased slightly this week, and there are expectations of production cuts after the industry meeting [42] Aluminum Alloys - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 is basically stable, with good terminal demand [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].

研 究 院 货 金 融 多重利好，铜价再创历史新高 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 融 研 究 院 议息会议将至，市场继续提高美联储降息预期。美国巨量买盘导致智利提高美国铜现货升水，中国冶炼行业酝酿联 合减产，同时芝商所火灾也扩大了市场波动，周五伦铜大涨创历史新高。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但 房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货 铜上涨。 弘 业 期 货 金 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报89280，现货报89260，沪铜高位震荡，现货较期货贴水-20点。今日现货基差升水上升 至110点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周大幅升水45美元，外盘现货需求明显好转。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高， 伦铜库存上升，沪铜库存小幅下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价下降至30美元的新低，上涨后国 内现货需求不足。铜价伦沪比下降至7.96，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1109点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史 ...

研 究 院 货 金 铝价再度转强，有望挑战前高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 研 究 院 周五美国感恩节假期，市场继续加强美联储降息预期。周五芝商所故障导致交易中断，本身假期流动性不足， 导致市场波动被放大。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民 币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报21865，现货报21720，现货较期货贴水-145点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水扩大至-60 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存小幅下降，氧化铝库存上升。上期所铝库存小幅下降，现货需求一 般。LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-26美元，海外现货需求不佳。人民币汇率本周大涨，铝价沪伦比本周下 降至7.58，内外盘走势大体相当。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大涨创近期新高，伦铝小幅上涨，在2878美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨，收于21865，技 术形态偏强。沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪乐观。本周国内电解铝 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251201" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro - expectations and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December. The fundamentals of steel products show mixed trends, with some products facing challenges in supply, demand, and inventory [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Product Analysis Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in China was 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 319.01 million tons (+3 million tons). Rebar long - process output decreased by 4.43 million tons, and short - process output increased by 2.55 million tons. Hot - rolled coil output increased but remained at a high level [5][35] Demand - Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 320.22 million tons (-4.2 million tons). The construction steel weekly average trading volume was 10.45 million tons, remaining at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil weekly average trading volume was 3.36 million tons [5][44][49] Inventory - Rebar total inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), with social inventory at 384.75 million tons (-15.27 million tons) and steel mill inventory at 146.73 million tons (-6.59 million tons). Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21 million tons), social inventory was 322.88 million tons (-1.21 million tons), and steel mill inventory remained unchanged [7] Basis - The basis of the rebar main contract was 140 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), showing a weakening trend [13] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The molten iron output was 234.68 million tons, a 1.6 million - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 1.17% [7] Raw Material Analysis - The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, main coking coal in Lvliang, and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port were 1450 yuan/ton, 1505 yuan/ton, and 794 yuan/ton respectively this week, with week - on - week changes of - 30 yuan/ton, - 140 yuan/ton, and +6 yuan/ton [16][17] Market and Related Data Steel Export - In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [64] Automobile Production and Sales - In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [68] Real Estate Data - From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales amount decreased by 9.6% year - on - year, and the available funds decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [71][72]