1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the market will run in an oscillating manner due to factors such as reduced steel mill profitability, lower iron - water production, and seasonal demand changes [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0854 million tons (-40,500 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1816 million tons (-54,000 tons) [5] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (-136,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 3.143 million tons (-175,900 tons) [5] - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.9254 million tons (-99,800 tons), with social inventory at 4.257 million tons (-51,100 tons) and steel mill inventory at 1.6684 million tons (-48,700 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1045 million tons (+38,600 tons), social inventory was 3.3302 million tons (+40,900 tons), and steel mill inventory was 774,300 tons (-2,300 tons) [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 156 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 15 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [5] - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. Iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, a 1.38% week - on - week increase; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a 0.8% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.03%, a 1.8% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.87%, a 2.12% week - on - week decrease [5] 3.2 Raw Materials - **Cost Support**: The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke and main coking coal from Lvliang increased, while the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,570 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), main coking coal from Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [19] 3.3 Production - related Indicators - **Iron - water Production and Furnace Operating Rates**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 91.87%, a 23.54% week - on - week increase [24][28][33] - **Steel Output**: Rebar output decreased by 40,500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process output decreased by 37,900 tons week - on - week, and short - process output decreased by 2,600 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week but remained at a high level [38] 3.4 Demand - related Indicators - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar consumption decreased by 136,700 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 175,900 tons week - on - week [44] - **Construction Steel and Hot - rolled Coil Volumes**: As of November 7, the weekly average volume of building materials was 96,400 tons, remaining at a low level. The weekly average volume of hot - rolled coils was 28,800 tons. The output of cold - rolled coils was 838,400 tons, a 21,300 - ton week - on - week decrease, and the output continued to decline [48][53] 3.5 Inventory - related Indicators - **General Steel Inventory**: As of November 7, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 545,500 tons, a 9,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The total inventory of major steel products was 10.7474 million tons, a 25,800 - ton week - on - week decrease [56] - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 99,800 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons week - on - week [60] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 38,600 tons week - on - week, social inventory increased by 40,900 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week [65] 3.6 Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase [68] - **Automobile Industry**: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy automobile production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new - energy automobile sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [72] - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Specifically, from January to September, the new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease; the completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. The sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a 0.8% decline; the sales amount of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, with a 0.6% decline. The funds in place for development enterprises from January to September totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, a 8.4% year - on - year decrease [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore supply and demand are weak. With the terminal demand in the off - season, steel mills' procurement is cautious. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile operation. The strategy is range - bound trading [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Logic - **Supply**: From November 3rd to November 9th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3069 tons, a decrease of 144.5 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1810.8 tons, down 84.3 tons, and Brazilian shipments were 737.8 tons, down 126.3 tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons. As of November 7th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 46.87 tons, a decrease of 0.77 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.98%, down 0.98%. The mine concentrate inventory was 79.6 tons, a decrease of 9.95 tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of November 7th, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. After the emergency response to heavy pollution weather was lifted in many places in Hebei, the steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul was weak, and the short - term decline in pig iron output was limited [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore continued to increase, the number of ships at the port decreased by 9 to 109. The pressure at the port was transferred to the port, and the steel mills' inventory rebounded from a low level, with the overall inventory increasing slightly [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore oscillated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5] Price - The spot price oscillated and declined [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded slightly, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder oscillated at a low level [13][17] Relative Valuation - The ratio of steel to ore oscillated at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke declined slightly [28] Supply - Global shipments decreased slightly, and the shipments of non - mainstream mines fluctuated slightly. Australian ore shipped to China and Brazilian ore shipments both decreased slightly. Shipments from FMG decreased, while those from BHP increased slightly. Shipmentsments from The Shipments from RT and VALE increased slightly. The shipping freight index increased slightly, the arrival volume decreased slightly, and the output of domestic iron concentrate decreased slightly [34][38][43][47][52][56][59] Demand - The profit of steel mill blast furnaces increased slightly, the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline, and the pig iron output continued to decrease [65][71] Inventory - The port throughput changed little, and the port inventory continued to rise. The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore was at a high level. The inventory of coarse powder oscillated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore increased slightly. The steel mills' consumption continued to decline, and the inventory of imported ore oscillated at a low level [78][82][90][98]

Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Report Title and Details - Report title: Log Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Price Under Pressure [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Research institution: Hongye Financial Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] - Qualification number: F03114700 [1] - Investment consulting number: Z0022394 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The log market is currently facing the pressure of high arrivals and weak demand, with spot prices continuing to be under pressure and expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. If the November foreign market price is slightly adjusted upwards as expected, it may provide some cost support for spot prices [8] Summary by Directory Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period. The price of 4 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port decreased. In October 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month. Overall, the spot price of logs is running weakly, and the price - cut specifications are mainly knot - free timber, Medium A, Small A, and pulpwood [3] - Futures: As of the close on November 6, the main log contract 2601 closed at 779 yuan/cubic meter, showing a weak oscillation after a decline [3] Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month, and the total shipment volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from 1.766 million cubic meters in September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from 1.472 million cubic meters in September. The recent arrival volume is relatively large, at a high level in the same period over the years [3] - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, 17 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 2 compared to the previous week, a 13% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume is about 571,000 cubic meters, an increase of 77,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 16% week - on - week increase [3] - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, 15 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 compared to the previous week, a 25% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 494,000 cubic meters, an increase of 46,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 10% week - on - week increase [3] - In September 2025, China imported 4.669 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to August, the import volume of logs and sawn timber was 42.176 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Overall, the import volume in September continued to decline, significantly reduced compared to 2024, and at a low level over the years [3] Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as the previous week [4] - Overall, supported by the peak downstream demand season, the inventory is weakly stable. Due to the overall low previous arrival volume, the national coniferous log inventory is in a destocking state. The inventory of radiata pine, the main inventory tree species in China, continues to be destocked, and the North American timber inventory remains at a low level [4] Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 9.89% compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, an increase of 4.29% compared to the previous week [4] - The national log outbound volume continues the downward trend. According to MULIAN news, some log vessels at Taicang Port are at risk of being stranded at the port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong. The core contradiction is that the port arrival pressure continues to be relatively large, while the downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, resulting in increased sales pressure on traders, who generally offer price promotions [4] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports show an obvious characteristic of resource concentration, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. Domestic demand is accelerating towards high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the impact of international price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions on domestic processing enterprises [5] - The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost during the off - season this year. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between log downstream construction timber and coke reaches 0.9. To a certain extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market. The previous indirect boost and decline of the anti - involution policy have been reflected in the market [5] - The May China - US Geneva Joint Statement will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for glued laminated timber and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby driving the accelerated destocking of logs. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [5] - In July, the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariff and counter - tariff for 90 days in the China - US economic and trade talks was extended again. There is still uncertainty about the export cost of Chinese wood products [5] - In October, there were various tariff change news again. The US - EU trade agreement included timber in the scope of a 15% tariff ceiling, marking a structural reduction in the US - EU timber trade barriers. The new tariff imposed by the United States on timber took effect on Tuesday (October 14). The new tariff imposes an ad - valorem tariff of 10% on the import of softwood timber and lumber and 25% on some upholstered wood products, and the tax rate will increase again next year. This news mainly affects Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico on the one hand and may also have an impact on the global trade direction on the other hand [5] - The European Commission announced the imposition of higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, which will take effect on December 7, 2025. The Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement making a positive preliminary anti - dumping determination on cardboard originating from China [5] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract progressed smoothly in various regions. The market believes that the cost - effective delivery product is the 5.9 Medium A specification, which can have a premium of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the benchmark product for delivery. Multiple regions attempted the first delivery of the 09 contract, providing strong support for the stable operation of the market [6] - Summary of the 09 contract delivery: The log 2509 contract had 136 paired delivery lots, a decrease of 89% compared to the 1281 paired lots of the 07 contract; 131 lots were successfully delivered, with a delivery success rate of 96.3%. According to MULIAN news, as the delivery month approaches, some processing factories said that they will reduce the spot purchase of logs in the near future and wait for the delivery goods of the 11 contract to flow out. The downstream generally recognizes the overall quality of the delivery standard products [6] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [6] - In terms of real estate data, the shipment and outbound volume continue to be poor year - on - year. Indicators such as new construction starts and funds in place all reflect the downward trend of the real estate market. In September, the funds in place for real estate development were 1.19281 trillion yuan, showing an improving trend compared to the summer off - season, but with a relatively large decline compared to the same period in previous years. The demand side of logs remains weak [6] Strategy and Suggestions - Looking back at the previous trends, the 2509 contract continued to weaken during the off - season in the second quarter, but had a large increase from July to August, mainly driven by the shortage of some specifications, the increase in foreign market quotes, and the inventory - building demand brought by the approaching delivery of the 09 contract. The spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the still cautious market expectation for future real estate demand, the near - and far - month contracts showed a differentiated trend after entering the delivery month [8] - In September, the main contract was 2511. The price increased and then quickly decreased before approaching the delivery month. The increase was driven by the foreign market price adjustment on the one hand and the expectation of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" on the other hand. Although September and October are the traditional peak seasons for wood processing and furniture production, the peak - season demand performance this year was average, with the average daily outbound volume stable at around 60,000 cubic meters, without a significant increase. After the National Day holiday in October, the futures price quickly corrected, reflecting that the market's pessimistic expectation for downstream demand has not been reversed. The weak fundamentals of the real estate industry continue, and coupled with the end of pre - holiday inventory building, the price was under pressure to decline [8] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined rapidly. The decline of the 2511 contract was relatively large, and the price difference structure between the near - and far - month contracts was significantly differentiated. On the one hand, some markets were trading on the expectation that "China's special port dues on US ships will increase the log import cost", but with the progress of the China - US economic and trade consultations in late October, the futures price quickly corrected. On the other hand, the log procurement peak season is usually earlier than the real estate peak season. As the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" comes to an end, furniture and export - oriented timber orders are likely to decrease, and the demand for glued laminated timber and knot - free timber will decrease. In the short term, the 2601 contract began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level [8] - The current downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in terms of tariffs and real estate. The far - month contracts may enter the delivery period with a discount structure again. The log market still faces the fundamental pressure of high arrivals and weak demand in the future, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure, fluctuating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see. According to Ganglian news, the foreign market price in November may be between 115 - 118 US dollars. If the slight increase is realized, it may provide some cost support for the spot price [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the domestic urea market showed a "first decline then rise" trend, affected by weather, supply - demand, and policy. Currently, the urea price is relatively low, and with the expected stabilization of coal prices, the downside space is limited. However, the supply will remain at a high level year - on - year, the demand is in the off - season, and the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern persists. In the fourth quarter, the urea market will face continuous supply pressure, lack strong demand drivers, and is likely to fluctuate at a low level [2][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In mid - and early - October, after the National Day holiday, continuous rainfall delayed agricultural activities, weakening terminal purchasing willingness and increasing enterprise inventories. With the weakening of export support, prices declined. In mid - and late - October, prices reached a low of 1460 - 1470 yuan/ton, then demand increased, and positive policy signals boosted confidence, leading to price recovery. As of October 31, the Shandong Linyi market price was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the urea 2601 contract closed at 1625 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.69% [6] Agricultural需求季节性推迟 - In October, agricultural urea demand was "delayed" due to continuous rainfall, which postponed corn harvest and wheat sowing, delaying fertilizer demand. Farmers adopted a "buy - as - you - use" strategy, increasing supply - demand imbalance. In the compound fertilizer sector, production and capacity utilization decreased in October, with a production of 362.87 million tons, a 22.16% month - on - month decline, and an average capacity utilization of 28.18%, down 8.02% month - on - month and 1.94% year - on - year. In September, urea exports were strong, with 137.12 million tons, but exports may decline in October [10][11][12] Supply高位运行 - In October, China's urea production was 588.19 million tons, an increase of 13.42 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.71 million tons from the same period last year. There were new device overhauls and new capacity resumptions, with a slight reduction in overhaul losses, leading to production growth [17] Factory库存压力较大 - In October, domestic urea factory inventories first rose and then fell. In mid - and early - October, rainfall reduced demand and increased inventories. In mid - and late - October, inventories decreased slightly but remained high. At the end of October, factory inventories were 155.43 million tons, a 33.82% month - on - month and 30.30% year - on - year increase. Port inventories decreased significantly, ending at 21 million tons, a 57.69% month - on - month and 4.11% year - on - year decrease [19][20] 后市展望 - In terms of cost, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and cost support for urea prices may emerge. In terms of supply - demand, gas - based urea enterprises will enter the overhaul period in November, but coal - based production will remain high, and supply pressure persists. In November, agricultural demand enters the off - season, with demand mainly supported by reserves. Overall, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level in the fourth quarter [26]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain has entered the trading phase with fast sales. There is a trend of sourcing grain from Northeast China, which may lead to a shortage of high - quality grain sources later. With strong demand, it is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality moist grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed. It is also advisable to buy far - month hedging on the futures market to avoid price increase risks [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price has risen steadily. The FOB price of corn in Bayuquan has increased from 2140 yuan/ton to around 2165 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port has remained stable at around 2250 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened oscillatingly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [3]. - The main starch 2601 contract has rebounded oscillatingly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu has remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis has weakened oscillatingly [3]. Supply - side Factors - New grain sales are fast, and the market is sourcing grain from Northeast China. As of November 6, the national grain sales progress was 22%, 3% faster year - on - year. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18% (3% faster y/y), 20% in North China (1% faster y/y), and 42% in Northwest China (4% faster y/y). Faster sales may lead to a tight supply after the Spring Festival [3]. - Channel inventories are rising, and downstream enterprises are starting to purchase. As of October 31, the corn inventory in North Ports was 102.1 tons and continued to rise, with a weekly shipment volume of 71.6 tons remaining high. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port stopped falling and rebounded to 42.5 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 31.7 tons. As of November 7, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, slightly down but generally rising, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 24.88 days, stopping the decline and starting to rise [3]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain low. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened to over 200, eliminating the substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. Although there has been a new China - US trade negotiation and mutual tax cuts, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the agreement mainly involves the import of tens of millions of tons of US soybeans, with no mention of corn. It is expected that corn imports will remain low in the short term [4]. Demand - side Factors - Feed demand is strong. Pig prices have rebounded from the low level, and the loss in pig farming has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 89.3 yuan per head, both showing a reduction in losses. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month, still far from the regulatory target. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, egg prices have rebounded, and egg - chicken farming is slightly in the red. Chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. The inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly, but the capacity adjustment is still slow [5]. - The demand of deep - processing enterprises is positive. Starch processing enterprises have been continuously profitable, and the operating rate has increased. As of November 7, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.77% and continued to rise, and the starch inventory increased month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises have suffered large losses again, but the operating rate has remained high at 66.79%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises has increased [5]. International Market - The US corn in the overseas market has rebounded oscillatingly. The US government shutdown continues, but the US Department of Agriculture may release a new supply - demand report. The US corn harvest is almost over, with high yield pressure. Affected by China - US trade negotiations and tax cuts, US corn has been boosted, but it is unclear whether China will import US corn [4].

研究报告-贵金属专题报告 金融研究院 财富千年不贬值的奥秘 --行情展望 近期相关报告列表： 前三季度，黄金市场呈现"避险拉升—政策缓和 回调—新一轮突破"的阶梯式上行格局。进入四季度 以来，由于美国政府停摆、中美贸易局势、地缘政治 因素等多重因素的博弈之下，波动加大，甚至在 10 月中旬以后一度呈现震荡整理态势。 展望四季度，金价预计将在高位运行，但波动可 能加剧。支撑金价的长期逻辑（去美元化、央行购金） 依然牢固，美联储货币政策转向将是核心驱动变量。 然而，金价已计入较多降息预期，需警惕预期差带来 的调整风险。同时，需密切关注中美关系、地缘政治 等风险事件的演变。白银在工业属性与金银比修复逻 辑下，表现有望强于黄金。 （摘要） 研究员：张天骜 从业资格证：F3002734 投资分析证：Z0012680 助理分析师：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 报告日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 | 1 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1.1 国外 . | | 1.2 国内 . | | 2 美国经济数据 . | | 2.1 GDP 数据 | | 2.2 PMI 指数 b | | 2.3 通胀数据 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply - side contraction due to shrinking profits of domestic zinc smelters and tight ore supply is favorable for zinc prices. The continuous opening of the domestic export window is expected to relieve the high domestic inventory pressure, and zinc may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, after the end of the downstream peak season, the weakening consumption of refined zinc may limit the increase in zinc prices. [1][47][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In October, zinc prices at home and abroad ended the previous downward trend, rebounded after volatile consolidation. In the first and middle of the month, the domestic zinc supply - demand situation weakened, and inventory continued to accumulate. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then trended lower. In the late month, the domestic export window opened, the oversupply of domestic inventory was relieved, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts strengthened, leading to a continuous rise in SHFE zinc. - In November, zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, further compressing the profits of zinc smelting enterprises. Some high - cost enterprises reduced production, intensifying the expectation of supply - side contraction. With domestic supply contraction and the opening of the export window, the domestic inventory pressure is expected to be relieved, but the weakening demand and high domestic inventory may limit the increase in zinc prices. [7] 3.2. Analysis of Zinc Influencing Factors 3.2.1. High - speed Increase in Global Zinc Ore Supply - With the resumption of production of global zinc mines and the ramping - up of new projects, global zinc ore supply increased at a high - speed year - on - year. In August, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In 2025, the main driving force for the increase in global mine production came from the resumption and increase of production of overseas mine projects and new production capacity in Xinjiang, China. - In September, domestic zinc concentrate production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, the production of some mines in Anhui and Guizhou was planned to resume, but as domestic mines gradually entered the seasonal supply off - season, the zinc concentrate production continued to decline. Overall, overseas mines are recovering rapidly, with a long - term expectation of global mine oversupply, but currently, domestic ore supply is gradually decreasing. [13][14] 3.2.2. High - level Domestic Zinc Ore Imports - In September 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import of zinc concentrate from January to September was 4.008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. The top three import source countries in September were Australia, Peru, and Oman. - In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased slightly month - on - month, maintaining a high level in recent years. Although the import window for zinc ore was closed in September, the arrival of locked - price and long - term contract zinc ores and strong demand for winter storage led to a continuous import volume. In October, the import window remained closed. Considering the strong demand for winter storage by domestic smelters but unfavorable import ratios, the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. - Due to factors such as increased demand for winter storage by domestic smelters, seasonal production cuts of domestic mines, and expanded losses of imported ores, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have been adjusted downward. [15][16][17] 3.2.3. Gradual Expansion of Global Zinc Supply - demand Surplus - In August 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, and the demand was 1.179 million tons, with a monthly supply - demand surplus of 47,900 tons. From January to August, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 9.1482 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.14%, and the cumulative demand was 8.9683 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.19%. The cumulative global refined zinc supply - demand surplus from January to August was 179,900 tons. [19][22] 3.2.4. Expected Contraction of Domestic Zinc Supply - In October 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 617,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. The cumulative production from January to October increased by 10% year - on - year, lower than expected. In November, with the rapid decline of domestic and imported processing fees, the comprehensive smelting profits of smelters were severely compressed, and some high - cost areas faced the risk of losses. Some smelters in the northwest and central China may actively reduce production in November. - In September 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In October, zinc ingot import losses reached a record high since 2022, severely suppressing imports, while the export window remained open, relieving domestic inventory pressure. [27][28][29] 3.2.5. Downstream Demand Enters the Off - season - In the galvanizing industry, after the holiday, the galvanizing start - up rate rebounded month - on - month but then remained stable. In October, due to the mediocre performance of black metal prices, the consumption of galvanizing was lower than expected, and the start - up rate showed a downward trend. - In the die - casting zinc alloy industry, in early October, the start - up rate declined slightly month - on - month due to the holidays. In the middle of the month, it increased significantly but then weakened. In November, with the arrival of the traditional off - season, orders are expected to be sluggish, and the start - up rate may further decline. - In the zinc oxide industry, the start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises first decreased and then increased in October. Overall, the start - up rate was relatively stable compared with previous years, but the peak - season effect weakened. The demand in traditional fields was weak, and the increase in the start - up rate in the later stage was limited. - From the perspective of zinc terminal industries, the real estate industry remained weak, infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the automobile industry showed good production and sales data. In November, downstream terminal demand entered the off - season, and demand may gradually weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [31][33][37] 3.2.6. Obvious Differentiation of Domestic and Overseas Zinc Inventories - In October, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 33,800 tons at the end of the month. Currently, LME inventory is at an absolute low in recent years. Although LME plans to introduce policies to restrict large near - month positions, overseas spot premiums have fallen from high levels. With the narrowing of domestic export profits, the low - inventory situation overseas may continue. - In October, domestic zinc social inventory continued to rise and then slightly declined from the high level at the end of the month. Currently, the inventory is still at a high level in recent years, with relatively large inventory pressure. In November, as downstream demand enters the off - season and domestic zinc supply is expected to shrink, the domestic inventory pressure may be further relieved. [42][44] 3.3. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, there is great uncertainty in the external environment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting improved market sentiment in the short term, but Trump's policies are still variable. The Fed's interest rate cut with a hawkish stance and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress zinc prices. Domestically, policies form a support. The suggestion to set a production capacity cap for zinc and the "15th Five - Year Plan" boost long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. - On the supply side, global zinc mine supply is growing at a high - speed year - on - year, and the long - term ore supply shortage is easing. However, in the short term, the increase in mine production mainly flows into China, and overseas ore supply remains tight with low inventory. Due to various factors, domestic and overseas zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased, and domestic smelting enterprises' profit compression is expected to lead to supply contraction. The opening of the export window relieves domestic inventory pressure. - On the demand side, the real estate industry remains weak, infrastructure investment declines month - on - month, and the domestic automobile industry grows steadily. However, downstream demand enters the off - season, and demand may further weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [47][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean supply in China will not be in short - supply in Q1 2026. The soybean market is affected by factors such as domestic and foreign trade agreements, harvest conditions, and oil - mill operations. The price of soybeans and the inventory of soybean meal are under the influence of multiple factors, with soybeans expected to fluctuate strongly and soybean meal expected to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The DCE Soybean No.1 2601 contract rebounded to around 4140 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4040 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans fluctuated strongly, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The DCE Soybean Meal 01 contract rebounded to around 3060 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal rebounded, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rising from 2910 yuan/ton to around 2970 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, and the futures price maintained a small premium [4]. Supply - Side Factors - **Domestic Harvest**: The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end, with quality differentiation. Northeast soybeans are popular. As of October 31, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans dropped to 92%, while that of Anhui, Henan, and Shandong increased to 90%, 80%, and 90% respectively [4]. - **Import Situation**: China and the US have reached an agricultural product agreement. China will purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. After the China - US trade agreement, the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and China has additionally ordered 20 ships of Brazilian soybeans, with 10 ships to be shipped in December. Although some enterprises have bought US soybeans, due to high tariffs, large - scale imports are not expected before the tariff reduction. As of October 31, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.885 million tons, a month - on - month decline, and the port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, also a month - on - month decline but still at a high level [5]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US - China soybean import agreement has boosted the price of US soybeans. The US government shutdown has broken the previous record, and the US Department of Agriculture is expected to release the November supply - demand report. The cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariff reduction [5]. Oil - Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly, but the inventory of soybean meal increased again. As of October 31, the operating rate of oil mills was 61.99%, a month - on - month decline; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.108 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The output of soybean meal was 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1.153 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 4.205 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.02 days, a slight month - on - month increase [6]. Demand - Side Factors - The demand for feed is relatively strong. In the breeding industry, the pig price has rebounded from a low level, and the loss of breeding has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the loss was narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.33 yuan per head, and the loss was also narrowing. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the inventory of reproductive sows in the country was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has dropped again, and egg - laying hens are in a loss state, but the inventory in September still increased to a historical high. The demand for feed is strong [6]. Market Outlook - The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end. With quality differentiation, Northeast soybeans are popular. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient due to imports. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure persists. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, affected by the cost increase of US soybeans and the pressure of increased supply [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment for copper is strong, and copper prices may experience high - level fluctuations. Mid - term macro expectations and spot demand are in conflict, with high uncertainty. [4] 3) Summary by Related Aspects Market Environment - After the Fed's hawkish speech, the market continued to lower the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the market's optimistic sentiment declined, and the US dollar rose to a new high since August on Friday. The non - ferrous metals showed a strong trend. [3] - China's October manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, and China issued a large number of opening - up policies, which improved market sentiment. [3] - The US dollar rose slightly, the RMB soared, and the sharp rise in crude oil and energy drove the non - ferrous metals to rise in the afternoon. [3] Copper Market Performance - Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, while domestic spot copper fell. Today, Shanghai copper closed at 87,300, and the spot price was 87,020. The spot was at a discount of - 280 points to the futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 5 points, and spot trading was poor. [3] - The LME spot discount narrowed to - 14 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. [3] - US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, LME copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. [3] - The RMB exchange rate fell sharply this week, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34 US dollars, and domestic spot demand was poor. [3] - The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 7.97, the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 535 points, and the external price ratio was higher than the domestic one. [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, LME copper rose slightly and traded around 10,900 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly and closed at 87,300, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [4] - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's rate - cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. [4] - In terms of supply and demand, the output of mines in Indonesia and other places has decreased, but the short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot end in the future. [4] Future Concerns - Future concerns include when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's rate - cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve. [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct 28 | 7.0962 | 1220 | 34.5 | - 24 | 8.03 | | Oct 29 | 7.0968 | - 950 | 34.5 | - 20 | 7.95 | | Oct 30 | 7.1106 | 140 | 35.5 | - 20 | 8.00 | | Oct 31 | 7.1225 | 600 | 35.5 | - 21 | 8.01 | | Nov 3 | 7.1173 | - 280 | 34 | - 14 | 7.97 | [5]