研 究 院 货 金 融 美联储政策难料，铜价承压回落 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 究 院 美国经济数据即将公布，市场预计美联储12月降息概率下降至五成以下，避险情绪持续上升，风险资产全面走弱。 宏观利空影响，今日市场走势偏弱。日内美元上涨人民币下跌，有色金属普遍下跌。沪铜下跌，伦铜下跌，国内现货铜 下跌。 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 期 货 金 融 研 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报86450，现货报86620，沪铜低位震荡，现货较期货升水170点。今日现货基差升水上升 至105点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周转为升水4美元，外盘现货需求有所好转。本周美铜库存继续上升创新高，伦铜库 存稳定，沪铜库存小幅上升，现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率大幅上涨，洋山铜溢价下降至32美元的近期新低，国内现 货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至8.01，国际铜较沪铜升水升水至537点，外盘比价高于内盘。 弘 业 技术上看，今日伦铜小幅下跌，在10825美元附近运行。沪铜探底回升小幅下跌，收于86450，技术形态偏弱。沪铜 成交上升持仓下降，市场分歧较大。宏观层面上看，美联 ...

USDA月度供需 数据跟踪 2025年11月 弘业期货农产品事业部 | | | | | USDA大豆供需数据跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：（百万吨） | | 期初 | 产量 | 进口 | 压榨 | 消费 | 出口 | 期末 | | 全 | | 123.34 | 421.75 | 186.41 | 364.98 | 421.54 | 187.97 | 121.99 | | 球 | 环比 | -0.19% | -0.97% | 0.11% | -0.45% | -0.55% | 0.10% | -1.61% | | | 同比 | 7.14% | -1.26% | 4.06% | 2.01% | 2.06% | 1.59% | -1.09% | | 美 | | 8.614 | 115.751 | 0.544 | 69.536 | 72.527 | 44.497 | 7.885 | | 国 | 环比 | -4.12% | -1.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -2.97% ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China. New - grain sales are relatively fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract continued to rebound. The spot price increased, with the FOB price of corn in Bayuquan rising from 2,165 yuan/ton to around 2,205 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn in Shekou Port rising from 2,250 yuan/ton to around 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The corn basis first weakened and then strengthened, with the futures slightly at a discount. The main starch 2601 contract continued to rebound. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated weakly [4]. Supply Side - Farmers are somewhat reluctant to sell, but new - grain sales are still fast. The national corn output increased to 300 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Due to the differentiation of grain quality in North China and other regions, the market mostly stocks up in Northeast China. The price increase in the Northeast region has made farmers reluctant to sell, and it is easier to store after the temperature drops. As of November 13, the national new - grain sales progress was 24%, 1% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the sales progress in the Northeast region was 19%, 2% faster than the same period last year; in North China, it was 23%, the same as the same period last year; in Northwest China, it was 46%, 3% faster than the same period last year. At the new - grain listing node, imported corn was auctioned again, and Sinograin entered the market to purchase for rotation, which affected the new - grain purchase and sales rhythm [4]. Demand and Inventory - After the corn price increase, downstream enterprises slowed down their procurement. As of November 7, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.071 million tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 582,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 454,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 412,000 tons, both rising from the previous week. As of November 14, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 273,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 25.61 days, an increase from the previous week [5]. Substitute and Import - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain at a low level. The price difference between wheat and corn remains above 200 yuan, so wheat does not have a substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. However, Sino - US trade is improving, and mutual tax cuts have been implemented, with a basic tariff of 10% still retained. There is a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn due to the auction of imported corn in the domestic market [5]. External Market - The US corn in the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The US government will end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the latest supply - demand report. The US corn harvest may be basically over, with high production pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of China importing US corn [5]. Downstream Demand - Feed demand is strong, and deep - processing demand is good. Pig prices are low, and pig farming continues to incur losses. As of November 14, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 205.64 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 114.81 yuan per head. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. Market pressure on pigs for slaughter and secondary fattening increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase from the same period last year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen again, and egg - chicken farming continues to incur losses. The sales volume of chicks has decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly. Feed demand remains strong. Deep - processing enterprises have good demand. Starch - processing enterprises continue to make profits, and the operating rate is rising. As of November 14, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 63.48% and continued to rise. Starch inventory remains at a high level. Alcohol - processing enterprises are suffering large losses, and the operating rate remains high at 67.29%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6].

Report Title - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Blending Logic Boosts Aromatic Hydrocarbon Prices (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] Report Date and Author - Date: November 14, 2025 - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PX market: Despite a strong supply-demand situation due to continuous inventory reduction, the peak season expectation has failed. However, with the improvement of downstream demand and supply tightening in November, PX processing fees and absolute prices are expected to remain strong [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new production capacity and overseas supply surplus, the price is under pressure. But due to the relatively low current price and downstream demand support, the short - term decline space is limited. The market still expects inventory accumulation and supply - demand contradictions remain [4]. - Styrene market: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is still poor. The weak fundamentals are difficult to change, and it will fluctuate at a low level [5][6]. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The price of naphtha is $569, and the PX CFR price is $825. Sinopec's PX listed price in November is slightly increased to 6,800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 758,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. Some plants are under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37% [3]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The PX market is expected to have a strong performance in the medium - long term if there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract 2603 rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and spot widened. The arbitrage window from Shandong to East China is partially open [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly production is 454,300 tons, an increase of 3.77%. The capacity utilization rate is 77.98%, an increase of 2.83%. The supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.61% and a year - on - year increase of 7.62%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the next period [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in loss, while aniline still has profit and it slightly expands [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The short - term decline space is limited, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change. The market is affected by factors such as US supply reduction and gasoline price increase [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract rebounded this week. The spot price in East China is 6,405 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China is - 451 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Capacity Utilization**: The production of styrene plants in China is 344,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.45%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [5]. - **Downstream**: The output of ABS, PS, and SBR increased, while the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased. The overall demand for styrene slightly decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 174,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The commodity inventory is 101,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.29% [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is poor, and the weak fundamentals are difficult to change [5][6].

一、生猪 生猪主力2601合约低位震荡止跌，此前跌创历史新低。生猪现货价格短暂反弹后再落，郑州外三元价格成交价由月 初12380元/吨跌至11800元/吨。基差震荡走弱，盘面接近平水。 （1）猪价低迷，养殖延续全面亏损。因猪价低迷，当前生猪养殖行业面临较严重的亏损。据wind：截至11月7日， 外购仔猪养殖利润为-175.54元/头，较大亏损；自繁自养为-89.21元/头，亏损幅度收窄。头部企业也在盈亏线附近， 牧原9月的养殖成本为11.6元/kg，而10月郑州猪价最低到了11.11元/kg，低于牧原的成本。散户的成本要高于头部企业， 亏损更严重一些。饲料原料玉米近期价格稳定，豆粕价格出现回升。截至11月7日，猪粮比为5.6，在盈亏线下。 （2）能繁产能调减偏慢，生猪存栏大增。养殖亏损令企业扩张步伐收缩，且政策严控新增产能，并进行调控。不 过生猪产能调减周期或较长。9月全国能繁母猪存栏量为4035万头，较上月减少3万头，按这个进度需要近3年才能完成 政策上100万头能繁调减目标的要求。生猪存栏增长幅度较大，三季度末全国生猪存栏量为43680万头，环比增长2.9%， 同比增长23%。供应压力不减。 养殖亏损延续 ...

原木周报： 恢复美国进口，规模存回升预期 弘业金融研究院 姜周曦琳 从业资格号：F03114700 投资咨询号：Z0022394 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 20251113 原木产业数据 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 ➢ 期现货： • 现货端，日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木750元/方，较上期下跌；本周太仓港4米中A辐射松原木770元/方，较上期下跌。2025年10月，4米中A辐 射松原木外盘价格(CFR)116美元/JAS立方米，较上月上涨1美元/方。整体来看，原木现货价格运行偏弱，跌价主因短期到港量大、需求环比走 弱和辐射松累库。 • 期货端，截至11月12日收盘，原木主力2601报收778.5元/方，弱势震荡延续。 ➢ 供应： • 2025年10月，新西兰原木离港船只约54条，月环比增加8条，总发货量约201.3万方，较9月176.6万方增加14%。其中，41条船发往中国，发货 量约150.2万方，占比75%，较9月147.2万方增加2%。近期到港量偏大，处于历年同期高位。 • 本周13港原木预计到港量：2025年11月10日-11月16日，中国13港新西兰原木预到船12条，较上周减少4条，周环比 ...

油厂大豆充盈，开机率再落 2025年11月11日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约在4150附近震荡加剧，多空博弈激烈。现货价格稳定，富锦大豆市场价在4040元/吨附近。大豆基差 震荡走弱，盘面升水扩大。 豆粕01合约在3050附近震荡。豆粕现货价格小幅上涨，张家港43粕由2970元/吨涨至2990元/吨附近。基差震荡走弱， 盘面升水扩大。 （1）国产大豆品质分化，产量微降。据农业农村部11月报告，华北等天气不佳致单产下降，国产大豆总产量微下 调19万吨至2090万吨，仍高于去年。国内大豆进入购销阶段，据钢联：截至11月7日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至90%；安 徽大豆余粮占比落至89%；河南大豆余粮占比升至90%；山东大豆余粮占比升至95%。新豆品质分化，黑龙江高蛋白大豆 受追捧。 （2）国内大豆进口回落，但后期大量美豆或装船。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中 美贸易达成农产品协议，将进口千万吨美国大豆，且未来三年内每年采购至少2500万吨。叠加此前超买南美大豆，国内 大豆供应将十分充足。中美已相互降 ...

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Macro-level factors like the potential end of the US government shutdown, the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and a more relaxed global monetary policy are favorable for copper prices, while on the supply-demand side, the recovery of Indonesian mines and weak short-term spot demand with high inventories may put pressure on the spot market in the future. In the short term, due to news stimulation, the market sentiment is strong and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, but in the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [3][4]. Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the LME copper rose slightly, trading around $10,785, and the Shanghai copper also rose slightly, closing at 86,480. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper were basically stable, and the market sentiment was neutral [4]. - The Shanghai copper closed at 86,480, and the spot price was 88,610, with the spot at a premium of 130 points over the futures. The spot basis premium was 55 points, and the spot trading improved slightly. The LME spot discount narrowed to -$18 this week, and the external spot demand was average [3]. - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to a recent low of $33.5, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The ratio of LME copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 496 points, with the external price ratio higher than the internal one [3]. Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is beneficial to copper prices; on the supply-demand side, Indonesian mines are gradually resuming production, but the spot demand remains weak in the short term, with high inventories, and there may be pressure on the spot side in the future [4]. - Technically, the technical form of Shanghai copper is neutral. In the short term, market sentiment is strong due to news such as the end of the US government shutdown, and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [4]. Future Concerns - Future attention should be paid to when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's interest rate cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both decreasing, with slow inventory depletion. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large factories in the northwest [6]. - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract bottomed out and rebounded, closing at 9220 yuan/ton on November 7 [6]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained stable, with a slight increase in output; the operating rate in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little; most silicon enterprises in Yunnan stopped production in late October, and some stopped in early November; some silicon enterprises in Sichuan may stop production partially. Overall, the output of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon enterprises decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of silicone was basically stable; the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises changed little, with on - demand procurement. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 552000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 53215 yuan/ton on November 7 [7]. - **Supply**: The output of polysilicon in October was 137400 tons, a slight increase from September. In November, with the successive shutdowns in the southwest production areas, the production schedule of polysilicon declined significantly [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained weak, and price transmission in the industrial chain was poor. Silicon wafer and battery prices were loose, and downstream crystal - pulling enterprises only maintained rigid - demand procurement. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: There was little change in inventory recently, and there was still a possibility of inventory accumulation as subsequent orders decreased [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed were unchanged from last week; the spread between Yunnan's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon and Xinjiang's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon remained stable compared with last week [10][14]. - **Polysilicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices of N - type dense material, P - type dense material, and P - type cauliflower material were unchanged from last week; the spread between N - type dense material and P - type dense material, and N - type dense material and P - type cauliflower material remained stable compared with last week [17][21]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of November 7, 2025, the delivered prices of silicon coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang remained stable; the delivered prices of silica stone in Hubei, Xinjiang, and Yunnan remained stable [25]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports remained stable; the electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained stable [28]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of wood chips and charcoal in Yunnan, and high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu remained stable [32]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of November 7, 2025, the average prices of N - type silicon wafers decreased slightly compared with last week. Affected by weak terminal demand and cautious downstream procurement, silicon wafer prices decreased slightly, but the decline space may be limited due to cost support [34]. - **Batteries**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared with last week. The battery market continued to be weak, with component manufacturers pressing prices and battery manufacturers lowering quotes [38]. - **Components**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of TOPCon components remained stable. The market demand was differentiated, with large - size components having firm quotes due to domestic centralized project demand, while conventional - size components had high inventory and weak demand, with prices hovering at low levels [41]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China increased by 500 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the operating rate was basically stable [45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and they procured industrial silicon on - demand [49].