1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively introduces palladium, including its physical and chemical properties, main uses, production sources, downstream applications, hazards, protective measures, spot market conditions, and new - variety listing rules. It also shows that palladium is an important and versatile metal with high import dependence in China and significant investment potential [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Variety Introduction - Physical properties: Palladium is a silver - white metal similar to platinum, with a density of 12.023 g/cm³, a hardness of 4 - 4.5, good ductility and plasticity, a melting point of 1554℃, and excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. It has excellent hydrogen absorption [4]. - Chemical properties: Palladium is chemically stable at normal temperature, but will form oxides at high temperatures. It can react with halogens, organic compounds, alkalis, and salts, and easily forms coordination compounds [4][5]. 3.2. Main Uses The largest use of palladium is in the automotive industry, especially in the three - way catalytic converters of vehicle exhaust systems to reduce harmful emissions [6]. 3.3. Production Source - Global reserves: In 2023, global palladium reserves were 71,000 tons, with South Africa accounting for 88.73% and Russia for 7.75% [7]. - Global production: In 2023, global production was 210 tons, with Russia accounting for 43.81% and South Africa for 33.81% [7]. - China's situation: China's natural reserves of platinum - group metals are 87.06 tons. Annual domestic production is about 1.3 tons, and annual imports are about 30 tons, indicating high import dependence [7]. 3.4. Downstream Applications - Jewelry: Palladium is suitable for making jewelry alone or in alloys due to its luster, ductility, and corrosion resistance [10]. - Chemical: It is an excellent catalyst in organic synthesis, and can be used for hydrogen storage and separation, electroplating, and fine chemical synthesis [10]. - Automotive: Palladium is crucial for vehicle exhaust purification and has potential applications in fuel - cell vehicles [11]. - Electronics: It is used in manufacturing MLCC electrodes, semiconductor equipment, sensors, etc. [11][12]. - Medical: Palladium compounds are used in biological marking, cancer treatment, dental restorations, and drug synthesis [12]. - Other: Palladium is used in aerospace, aviation, and other fields, and is also an investment variety [13]. 3.5. Hazards and Protective Measures - Hazards: Inhalation, skin contact, and ingestion of palladium can cause health problems, and palladium can also pollute the soil, water, and air [14][15]. - Protective measures: Personal protection includes wearing protective equipment; regular health monitoring is necessary; and environmental protection requires proper wastewater treatment [15]. 3.6. Spot Situation - Price trends: Domestic and international palladium prices, as well as overseas futures and spot prices, show similar trends. The palladium market is small, with low liquidity and large price fluctuations (over 5 times since 2015) and is currently at a medium price level [20]. - Consumption: China's palladium consumption accounts for about 15% of the global total, and China is highly dependent on imports [23]. 3.7. New - Variety Listing Rules Newly - listed varieties generally have a negative impact on spot prices. When the futures price drops to near the spot cost price, there will be obvious cost support. The aluminum - alloy futures are expected to follow the same pattern [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The copper market is under fundamental pressure, and copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. The US economic recession risk and interest - rate cut expectations are rising, and the market sentiment is weak. The high inventory and insufficient subsequent demand in the US copper market, along with poor spot demand during the off - season in the Shanghai copper market, contribute to the unfavorable outlook [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On Friday, China's July economic data fell short of expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was disappointing with significant downward revisions of the previous two months' data. The dollar tumbled at night while the RMB soared, and the market weakened. However, positive data from China's automotive and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day, with most non - ferrous metals rising, including Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and domestic spot copper [1]. - Technically, LME copper oscillated slightly higher around $9670, and Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting a low, closing at 78330. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Premium - This week, the inventory of US copper and LME copper increased significantly, while the inventory of Shanghai copper decreased slightly. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped slightly to $50.5, suggesting poor domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - $49 this week, indicating weak external spot demand. The copper price ratio of LME to Shanghai copper rose to 8.17, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 180 points, with the external market ratio slightly higher than the domestic market, showing weak market sentiment [1]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/Ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/Ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | July 29 | 7.1808 | 220 | 51.5 | - 54 | 8.04 | | July 30 | 7.2120 | 520 | 48 | - 52 | 8.06 | | July 31 | 7.2093 | 580 | 48 | - 47 | 8.11 | | August 1 | 7.1981 | 40 | 52.5 | - 51 | 8.09 | | August 4 | 7.1783 | 180 | 50.5 | - 49 | 8.17 | [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has turned weak, and the outlook for copper prices is poor. The anti - involution speculation in the futures market has ended, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates this week is extremely low, with the US dollar rising continuously. The market remains weak, and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Market Performance Summary - **Price Changes**: Shanghai copper closed at 79,000, and the spot price was 79,270. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot premium dropped to 270 points. The spot basis premium dropped to 95 points, and spot trading was poor. LME spot premium narrowed slightly to a discount of - 54 dollars, indicating weak external spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8.05, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 270 points [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: US copper inventories increased significantly this week, London copper inventories rose, and Shanghai copper inventories decreased slightly [1]. - **Exchange Rate and Premium**: The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to 51.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. Group 4: Technical and Supply - Demand Analysis - **Technical Analysis**: London copper fluctuated slightly higher, trading around 9,800 dollars. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom and fell slightly, closing at 7,9000, with a weak technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the off - season, the spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor. With the approaching implementation of US tariffs, the demand for London and Shanghai copper has decreased significantly [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that while the peak season demand for lead is yet to materialize, due to limited supply growth and cost - side support, the lead market is likely to be weak with limited downside potential. Attention should be paid to whether the peak season demand will be realized later [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In June 2025, China's lead ore imports reached 118,026 tons, a 13.54% month - on - month increase, hitting a five - year high. The low levels of domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 dollars/dry ton, down 15 dollars month - on - month. The domestic weekly lead ore processing fee was 400 - 600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 dollars/dry ton, remaining flat week - on - week [2]. - **Supply**: In June, the national electrolytic lead output was 328,600 tons, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease but a 16.23% year - on - year increase. In July, after maintenance, production recovered, but the tightness of the ore end limited the production increase. The output of secondary lead in June was 228,800 tons, a 2.39% month - on - month increase but a 13.57% year - on - year decrease. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week decreased by 1.1% to 65.8%. The operating rate of secondary lead increased by 2.4% to 37.9% last week. The import window of lead ingots remained closed [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly operating rate of SMM lead - acid batteries remained relatively stable. The anti - dumping investigation by the Middle East on China and Indonesia will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese or Chinese - funded lead - acid battery enterprises, which may drag down the battery export outlook. After the decline in lead prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and refineries' inventory decreased rapidly. However, the improvement in downstream battery consumption was limited, and dealers mainly digested inventory, waiting for peak season demand [4]. - **Spot and Inventory**: As of the week ending July 18, the basis of domestic lead spot to the active month rebounded slightly to near par. The LME lead spot remained deeply in contango, with a contango of 24.20 dollars last weekend. As of the week ending July 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 19,025 tons to 268,400 tons, reaching a five - year high; the SHFE lead weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons to 62,300 tons. As of July 21, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 65,800 tons, at a relatively high level in the past three years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The LME lead inventory increased significantly at a high level last week and remained at a five - year high, with the spot in deep contango, indicating a loose supply - demand situation overseas. Although the lead concentrate imports in June increased to a multi - year high, the weekly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ore remained low, and the supply of lead concentrate remained tight. With the end of production cuts by smelters in Central China, the supply of primary lead may increase slightly later. The willingness to resume production of secondary lead is strong, but the loss situation has not improved, and raw material inventory remains low, so the expected increase in secondary lead is limited. - Currently, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery market remains stable. After the decline in lead prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and refineries' inventory decreased rapidly. However, the improvement in downstream battery consumption is limited, dealers are mainly digesting inventory, social inventory is accumulating, and peak season demand is yet to come [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: With reduced maintenance of existing plants and upcoming new capacity, while the load of downstream polyester and end - users is falling, the spot processing fee of PTA is at a low level within the year, and the supply - demand contradiction is expanding, showing a weak fluctuation [3]. - MEG: The supply at home and abroad is lower than expected, and the port inventory is not high, so the futures price is relatively strong. However, due to the poor performance of polyester and end - users, the upside space is limited [3]. - Short - fiber: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. After the plant reduction, the processing fee has been repaired. Currently, it is difficult for the processing fee to rise further during the off - season of demand [3]. - Bottle - chip: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Since the end of June, under the background of production reduction, the processing fee has improved. If the supply side does not narrow further, it may be difficult for the bottle - chip processing fee to increase again [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Cost - end: Recently, Fuhua's 1.6 million - ton plant is under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load with postponed maintenance. Shandong Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant is planned to restart in late July, and Tianjin Petrochemical is expected to have maintenance in July. FJDH is expected to have maintenance in September. The Asian PX load hovers around 73% - 74%. Due to the rigid demand support of PTA, the processing margin of PX in the medium - and short - term processes is relatively good, with PX - N around $250/ton [9]. - Supply: Recent maintenance mainly involves Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants, both of which are shut down in conjunction with upstream PX plants and are expected to restart in August. Yisheng Hainan will stop for transformation on August 1st for three months. There will be fewer plants in need of maintenance later. The new plant of Sanfangxiang has been commissioned, and it is expected to start one production line first. Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant will be put into operation in October, and the PTA supply is expected to increase significantly [9]. - Demand: Under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing machines have been continuously decreasing, currently at 56% and 61% respectively, lower than the same period in the previous two years. The current overall polyester load is around 88.5%. As of the week of July 10th, the inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 24.2, 24.7, and 29.4 days respectively. The cash flows of short - fiber and bottle - chip have improved under the support of partial plant reduction, and it is unlikely to further reduce the load significantly. However, the cash flows of filament POY and FDY have continued to decline, and recently, major filament factories have decided to start a new round of significant production reduction, which is currently being implemented [8][10]. - Processing Fee: The PTA industry is in an overall loss, the spot processing fee has narrowed to the low level of 216 yuan/ton within the year, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to around 300 yuan/ton, with limited room for improvement [9]. MEG - Supply: Due to the improved profit of coal - based ethylene glycol, the enthusiasm for plant operation after maintenance is high, and the current coal - based load has reached the relatively high range of 73%. The load of integrated plants is lower than expected. For example, Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton plant was originally planned to restart in mid - August but may be postponed due to the maintenance of the cracking plant. In addition, the ethylene glycol load of Zhejiang Petrochemical has unexpectedly decreased. In the overseas market, several Saudi plants were shut down due to power problems, involving a capacity of 1.7 million tons, and the recent restart has been difficult, which may affect the ethylene glycol arrival volume in August. Singapore Shell's 900,000 - ton plant is also planned to start maintenance in mid - August, affecting the import volume in August. Recently, the port inventory has been running below 500,000 tons, and the visible inventory is not high [11]. - Cost: The profit of non - coal - based MEG shows differentiation. The production loss of naphtha - based MEG is $106/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based MEG has improved to - $81/ton. Meanwhile, the port coal price is still hovering at a low level, and domestic coal - based ethylene glycol enterprises have a strong production willingness [11]. - Demand: Similar to PTA, under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the demand is expected to weaken [11]. Short - fiber - Raw Materials: The supply of PTA is significantly increasing with reduced maintenance scale and new capacity, while the supply of ethylene glycol at home and abroad has unexpectedly narrowed, and the low port inventory provides some support, making it relatively strong [12]. - Processing Fee: Currently, the short - fiber operating rate is maintained at around 93%. In the week of July 17th, the short - fiber factory's equity inventory was 8 days, and the physical inventory was 15.5 days. The spot processing fee is around 1,100 yuan/ton. Downstream, due to the hot weather and weak demand, the average operating rate of pure - polyester yarn factories has dropped to 72.4%, the finished - product inventory of yarn factories is 23 days, up from last week, and the raw - material inventory is 7.5 days. Currently, during the domestic off - season of demand and lack of international orders, yarn factories have a weak purchasing willingness. Recently, the short - fiber processing fee is acceptable, and the production - reduction intensity may be limited [12]. Bottle - chip - Demand: From January to June, the cumulative output of soft drinks was 93.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [12]. - Supply: Since late June, Huarun's three plants in Jiangyin, Changzhou, and Zhuhai have all reduced production by 20%, Hainan Yisheng's 1.25 - million - ton plant has been under maintenance, and Chongqing Wankai's 600,000 - ton plant has been under maintenance, with a total production capacity of 2.51 million tons involved [12]. - Processing Fee: The bottle - chip spot processing fee has risen from less than 200 yuan/ton in mid - June to around 400 yuan/ton. With the alleviation of supply pressure, the bottle - chip processing fee has improved in the short term. If the supply side does not narrow further, the upside space of the processing fee is also limited [12]. Market Data - PTA: The PTA processing fee is 217 yuan/ton, and the PX - N spread is $253/ton on July 16th [21][23]. - MEG: As of July 17th, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang ethylene glycol port inventory is 494,000 tons, the MEG factory inventory in June is 309,000 tons, and the MEG raw - material inventory of polyester factories in mid - July is 12.5 days. From January to May 2025, the cumulative MEG import was 3.2277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [33][37]. - Polyester Products: On July 9th and July 16th, 2025, the cash flows of filament POY were 136.66 and 12.85 respectively; the cash flows of filament FDY were - 88.34 and - 212.15 respectively; the cash flows of filament DTY were 50.00 and 100.00 respectively; the short - fiber spot processing fees were 1,185.21 and - 1,085.21 respectively; the bottle - chip spot processing fees were 437.89 and 426.24 respectively [43]. - Textile and Apparel Exports: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was $143.98 billion, including $70.52 billion in textile exports, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and $73.46 billion in clothing exports, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In June, textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year due to weak overseas demand and tariff impacts [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of industrial silicon showed a strong upward trend this week, with the futures main contract rebounding. The supply of industrial silicon is stable in the north and increasing in the south, with overall output slightly increasing, and the demand for polysilicon has a slight increase. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the actual spot trading situation needs further attention [6]. - The spot price of polysilicon jumped significantly this week, and the futures main contract also rebounded strongly. Although there is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, downstream sectors have started to raise prices. The polysilicon market is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 8415 yuan/ton [6][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large - scale factories' operations are basically stable, with no news of复产 for previously shut - down production capacity and a slight decline in output. Yunnan is releasing output from复产 silicon enterprises during the wet season, and some silicon furnaces still have plans for复产 [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon is basically stable, and the output in July is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has a slight fluctuation, and the weekly output has a small increase. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry is expected to be weak, and the export volume in May decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [6]. - **Cost**: This week, the cost of industrial silicon remained stable, with the prices of silicon coal and silicon stone weakly stable [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week [6]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has slightly shrunk. As of July 11, 2025, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 1050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [12][14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 46000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11000 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 41330 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The market's expectation of supply - side reform and industry restructuring in the polysilicon industry has increased. The output in June was about 10.2 tons, and the output in July is expected to be between 10.3 - 11 tons [7]. - **Demand**: There is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, but downstream sectors have started to raise prices. In May, the import volume decreased compared with the previous month, and the export volume increased [7]. - **Cost**: This week, the cost of polysilicon was supported, with the cost of raw material industrial silicon rebounding [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of polysilicon remains high, with the total market inventory exceeding 3 months [7]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has widened significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 13000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10000 yuan/ton [21][23]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of July 11, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 0.94, 0.94, 1.15, and 1.35 yuan/piece respectively, with week - on - week increases. There is currently no market transaction [40]. - **Battery Chip**: As of July 11, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.24, 0.24, 0.253, and 0.253 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. Many battery chip manufacturers have suspended or delayed shipments [44]. - **Component**: As of July 11, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.665, 0.675, 0.665, and 0.675 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. The price adjustment is cautious due to strong terminal customer wait - and - see sentiment [48]. Other Related Industries - **Organic Silicon**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The production profit margin has rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate has increased [51][53]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 19700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is weak [55][57]. Cost - related - **Silicon Coal and Silicon Stone**: As of July 11, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 895 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the delivered price of Hubei silicon stone was 325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [25][27]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports was 1125 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have decreased [31][33]. - **Wood Chips, Charcoal, and Graphite Electrodes**: As of July 11, 2025, the prices of Yunnan wood chips, Yunnan charcoal, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes remained unchanged from last week [35][37].

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodity futures in different time periods (weekly, monthly, yearly, two - year, and three - year), including their respective rankings and the performance of dynamic portfolios composed of top - ranked varieties compared with the CSI 300 Index Futures [5][7][20] Summary by Catalog 1. Price Change Description - Last week, Brent crude oil had the largest weekly price increase of 14.6690%, European Line Container Shipping had the largest monthly price increase of 18.0858%, and polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%. Among agricultural products, jujube had the largest yearly price decrease of 5.2947%; among ferrous metals, hot - rolled coil had the largest yearly price increase of 2.3164%; among non - ferrous metals, New York silver had the largest yearly price increase of 3.3171%; among energy and chemical products, polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%; in the financial sector, the Hang Seng Index had a yearly price decrease of 1.8350% [5] 2. Price Change Tables 2.1 Comprehensive Price Change Table - It shows the weekly, monthly, and yearly price changes of multiple commodity futures such as iron ore, stainless steel, and various financial indices on July 7, 2025 [7] 2.2 Weekly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in weekly price increase include polysilicon (10.7093%), European Line Container Shipping (3.0068%), and rebar (2.7425%). Those with price decreases include methanol (- 0.2909%), sugar (- 0.3110), and soybean No. 2 (- 0.3332) [8] 2.3 Monthly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in monthly price increase include polysilicon (6.0000%), European Line Container Shipping (4.6856%), and live pigs (2.9878%). Those with price decreases include coke (- 0.3561), tin (- 0.3319), and silicon ferroalloy (- 0.2974) [10] 2.4 Yearly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in yearly price increase include New York silver (26.9920%), New York gold (26.7134%), and Shanghai gold (24.6132%). Those with price decreases include polysilicon (- 12.4811), silicon ferroalloy (- 12.0085), and wire rod (- 11.8353) [12] 2.5 Two - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in two - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), New York gold (73.4387%), and Shanghai gold (66.866199). Those with price decreases include industrial silicon (- 60.1245), polyvinyl chloride (- 29.0916), and coke (- 30.2986) [14] 2.6 Three - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in three - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), Shanghai silver (92.6721%), and Shanghai gold (90.0676). Those with price decreases include rubber (- 18.6785), PTA (- 19.3067), and cotton (- 20.3440) [16] 3. Valuation Chart - The chart tracks the weekly price changes of dynamic portfolios composed of the top five and top ten weekly price - increasing varieties in the following week and compares them with the weekly price changes of the CSI 300 Index Futures [20] 4. Precipitated Capital Ranking - It shows the ranking of various commodity futures in terms of precipitated capital on July 7, 2025. The top - ranked ones include CSI 1000 Index Futures (520.6237 billion yuan), CSI 300 Index Futures (415.5635 billion yuan), and Shanghai gold (380.0917 billion yuan) [22]

Report Title - Methanol: Port Inventory Accumulation, Price Under Pressure - 20250711 [1] Core Viewpoint - The price of methanol is under pressure due to factors such as port inventory accumulation, weak downstream demand, and limited cost support [3][4] Summary by Content Price - The spot price of methanol at ports has declined, with Jiangsu's price ranging from 2370 to 2480 yuan/ton and Guangdong's from 2390 to 2470 yuan/ton. The inland market shows a weak and volatile trend, with the price in the northern line of Ordos ranging from 1963 to 2010 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2225 to 2265 yuan/ton [3] Supply - The domestic methanol production this week reached 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% decline from the previous week. There were new maintenance devices and some devices resumed operation. In terms of port inventory, the inventory in East China increased by 61,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons [3] Downstream Demand - Methanol downstream demand showed a differentiated trend this week. The overall operation rate of olefins slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 5.19%, the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid decreased slightly, the operation rates of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased, and the MTBE load increased. In the next period, the capacity utilization rates of olefins, acetic acid, chlorides, and MTBE are expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde is expected to decline, and dimethyl ether will remain basically the same [4] Market Outlook - On the supply side, the overall supply may increase slightly, and port inventory may accumulate, putting pressure on prices. On the demand side, MTO demand will increase slightly, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices in the acetic acid field. Other traditional downstream demands have limited fluctuations. On the cost side, the coal market is consolidating horizontally, and gas - based methanol is continuously losing money [4]