Report Information - Report Title: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Cost Strengthening, Bullish Market Uplift (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin [2] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX continues its strong pattern due to improved downstream demand since Q4 2026, positive news, and supply - demand remaining strong with supply tightness easing recently [3] - The pure benzene market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the short - term market is still supported, but there may be an opportunity to shrink the processing spread [4] - Styrene has seen significant price increases in both futures and spot markets recently. The short - term market is bullish, and there may be an opportunity to shrink the pure benzene - styrene spread later [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory PX Market Cost - Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, causing the PX outer - market price to rise continuously. The spot - futures price is in high - level oscillation, and the basis has widened. The January PX listed price of Sinopec is raised to 7,500 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Zhejiang Petrochemical's reform is under maintenance, and the PX load has decreased. This week's PX output is 743,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates have also declined [3] Demand - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA is 75.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.69% [3] Summary and Outlook - PX is expected to maintain a strong supply - demand situation in 2026. New investments may be realized after Q4, and the supply tightness has eased recently [3] Pure Benzene Market Spot and Futures - The futures price of pure benzene has risen significantly since early January. Rising oil prices, geopolitical news, and good downstream demand are the main driving factors [4] Supply and Demand - In December 2025, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The import volume was estimated at 470,000 tons. The market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply [4] Inventory - As of this week, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports is 297,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.33% and a year - on - year increase of 107.69% [4] Profit - The spot price difference between pure benzene and downstream styrene has widened, prompting factories to lock in profits and buy pure benzene for hedging, further driving up the price [4] Summary and Outlook - In Q4 2025, new capacities led to oversupply. Recently, the short - term market is supported, and there may be an opportunity to shrink the processing spread [4] Styrene Market Spot and Futures Performance - The styrene main contract has risen for multiple consecutive trading days, mainly due to cost support and a continued tight - balance situation [5] Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week is 441 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.79% [5] Industrial Chain Operation - This week, the total output of styrene plants in China is 349,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23% [5] Downstream - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene in China this week is 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16% [5] Inventory - As of this week, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China is 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.84% [5] Summary and Outlook - Styrene's performance in the traditional peak season in 2025 was disappointing. Recently, the market has been bullish, but there may be a risk of weak downstream demand later [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current soda ash market is in a weak equilibrium pattern of "high supply, low demand, neutral inventory, and strong cost." The reduction of heavy soda ash inventory brings short - term sentiment repair, and the resilience of light soda ash demand provides bottom support. However, there is no obvious increase in the terminal glass industry, lacking trend - driving forces. The futures price forms technical support in the range of 1,150 - 1,180 yuan/ton, and may continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but still faces over - capacity pressure in the medium term [3]. - As of January 22, the number of registered soda ash futures warehouse receipts dropped sharply to 70, a significant decrease from 2,432 on January 19, and the effective forecast rose to 2,747, indicating an enhanced market delivery intention. Some short - sellers shifted positions or prepared for delivery, and the short - term liquidity pressure eased. The main contract SA2605 closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23, and technically approached the key support area of 1,150 - 1,160 yuan/ton. The basis performance: the spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is about 1,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,185 yuan/ton, the basis narrowed to about 65 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot discount was repaired, reflecting the market's expectation of stable spot prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the fundamentals of the soda ash market remained under pressure, featuring high - level supply, slight inventory reduction, structural differentiation in demand, enhanced cost support but price pressure. The futures price formed technical support in the range of 1,150 - 1,180 yuan/ton, and the short - term downward space was limited due to the cost bottom line and the structural demand for light soda ash [3]. Supply - The operating rate remained at a high level, and production increased steadily. This week, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry remained above 86%. As of January 22, the national comprehensive operating rate of soda ash was 86.42%, among which the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process was 87.69% and that of the combined - soda process was 77.99%, basically the same as the previous week, indicating stable capacity utilization and an undiminished pace of new capacity release, with continuous pressure on the supply side [3]. Demand - Heavy soda ash was under pressure, while light soda ash still showed resilience. During the week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 150,700 tons and that of photovoltaic glass was 87,200 tons. Next week, a 900 - ton production line of float glass is planned to resume production and ignite. Affected by the stable daily melting volume of float glass and the lack of obvious recovery in the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for heavy soda ash remained weak. However, recently, some enterprises carried out phased replenishment due to pre - holiday stocking and cold - repair expectations, driving a significant decline in heavy soda ash inventory. The operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry remained above 87%, providing continuous support for light soda ash [3]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of soda ash continued the downward trend, but the pace slowed down. As of January 22, the total inventory of national soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% from 1.5442 million tons on January 19, showing a second consecutive week - on - week decline. The inventory of heavy soda ash decreased from 721,600 tons to 696,700 tons, a decrease of 24,900 tons during the week, reflecting the phased replenishment of the downstream glass industry [3]. Profit - The production cost of soda ash remained at a high level, and the industry as a whole was in a deep - loss state. The price of steam coal fluctuated upward, and combined with the stable cost of rock salt, the production cost support was enhanced. However, the long - term losses in the industry inhibited the willingness to actively reduce production, and the cost line became an important support for the price decline. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was still negative, and the profit of the combined - soda process was also at a low level, with the industry as a whole deeply in the red [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the closing price of the main contract of the float glass futures fluctuated downward from 1,143 yuan/ton to 1,086 yuan/ton and then rebounded to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16th, with a weekly fluctuation range of 5.8%. The price rebound was mainly driven by speculative demand, cold repair expectations, and coal linkage speculation, rather than an improvement in real terminal demand [3]. - The float glass market this week showed characteristics of "stable supply, slow inventory reduction, weak demand, and active capital." The trading activity in the futures market increased significantly, with the open interest and trading volume of the main contract rising simultaneously, indicating increased capital participation. However, the price rebound lacked substantial support from terminal demand improvement, and the rebound height was limited. The market was in a state of intense long - short game, and a trending unilateral market had not yet formed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Float Glass Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of float glass futures fluctuated, with a weekly fluctuation range of 5.8%. The price rebound was not due to real terminal demand improvement [3]. - The futures market was characterized by "stable supply, slow inventory reduction, weak demand, and active capital." The trading activity increased, and the open interest and trading volume of the main contract rose. The price rebound was limited, and the long - short game was intense [3]. 3.2 Spot Overview - In the context of weak supply - demand and slow inventory reduction, the price of the float glass futures market oscillated and rebounded, and the trading activity increased significantly. The negotiation focus of the domestic float glass spot market moved slightly upward, with prices falling in the north and rising in the south. The weekly average price was 1,098 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.45 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - The daily average output of national float glass was 150,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%. The industry capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%. The supply side was stable, with no new cold repair or restart events, and the supply pressure was not significantly relieved [4]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand showed structural characteristics. In the northern market, due to the approaching Spring Festival, processing plants gradually closed for holidays, and the rigid demand continued to weaken. In East and South China, some order rush - jobs supported short - term shipments, but the overall order volume did not increase significantly. As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4% [4]. 3.5 Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises continued to decline, but the pace slowed down. As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74% [4]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoint The new grain sales have slowed down, and the remaining grain after the Spring Festival is still expected to be insufficient. Although there is a tight supply expectation of high - quality grain in some areas, the public bidding transactions and a significant increase in imports, along with the support of downstream procurement demand, suggest that corn prices in the first half of the year may be relatively optimistic, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded again, while the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The basis of corn oscillated weakly, and the discount of the futures price narrowed. The starch main 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded, with a stable starch price and a weakly oscillating basis [3] 3.2 New Grain Sales Progress - As of January 22, the national grain sales progress was 56%, 1% slower year - on - year. There was obvious regional differentiation: the Northeast was 56%, 2% faster year - on - year; North China was 51%, 3% slower year - on - year; and the Northwest was 69%, 3% slower year - on - year. It is expected that the national grain sales progress before the Spring Festival will exceed 60%, and there will be insufficient remaining grain after the Spring Festival. As of January 22, CGSCC had put 750,000 tons into public bidding and 611,000 tons were transacted [3] 3.3 Inventory Status - As of January 16, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.497 million tons, rebounding month - on - month and at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 389,000 tons, dropping significantly. In Guangdong Port, the domestic trade corn inventory was 478,000 tons, dropping month - on - month, and the foreign trade corn inventory was 219,000 tons, also dropping month - on - month. As of January 23, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, rising continuously month - on - month and still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.32 days, rising month - on - month [4] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat may have a reduced yield. The wheat - corn price difference remains high, and wheat substitution for corn is not feasible. In December 2025, China's corn imports increased significantly again, up 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The cumulative corn imports in 2025 were 2.647 million tons, down 80.8% year - on - year. Corn imports have increased significantly since last October and may continue to rise [4] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The U.S. corn in the external market oscillated at a low level. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the U.S. corn production to a record high due to increased yield per unit and harvested area, which led to a nearly 10% increase in the ending inventory, up 44% year - on - year. The South American corn production was not adjusted. The global corn ending inventory increased by 4.2% but was still 1.29% lower than last year [4] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was 7.39 yuan per head. The reduction of pig production capacity achieved certain results. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, and the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, showing the first month - on - month decline in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the breeding loss narrowed. The demand for feed may remain strong. Deep - processing enterprise demand was insufficient. The processing profit of starch processing enterprises was in the red in some areas, and the operating rate stopped falling. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46% as of January 23, rising month - on - month, and the starch inventory was 1.069 million tons, continuing to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to make losses, and the operating rate dropped to 57.33%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises was rising, and that of paper - making enterprises was relatively stable [5]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term Shanghai zinc may fluctuate weakly. The short - term market sentiment weakens, and the downstream gradually shuts down before the Spring Festival, so the demand is difficult to improve substantially. The domestic supply remains low, but the export window closes, and the domestic supply - demand margin weakens, so Shanghai zinc lacks upward momentum. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to wait for the signal of the peak - season demand recovery after the Spring Festival. Later, attention should be paid to the export and the start - up situation of the domestic smelting end [1][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in January was 1200 - 1600 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 49.92 US dollars per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.12 US dollars. Last week, the domestic spot processing fee of zinc concentrate remained at 1300 - 1700 yuan per ton, and the weekly ring was flat; the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate was 33.25 US dollars per dry ton, a weekly decrease of 4.25 US dollars [2] Fundamental Changes - Supply - In December, the refined zinc output was 552,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. The annual refined zinc output was 6.8336 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.37%. Some domestic mines stopped production in winter, the output of domestic zinc concentrate decreased month - on - month, and the supplement of imported ore was limited. The profit of smelting enterprises without by - products was deeply in deficit, and some enterprises cut production passively. In January, many smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and other regions started regular maintenance plans, involving a capacity of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons. The overall maintenance scale was larger than the resumption scale, and the start - up rate decreased. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 8700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London ratio improved slightly, the refined zinc export profit window closed, and the import loss narrowed [3] Fundamental Changes - Consumption - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of new construction and construction areas in the real estate industry were still negative, and the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales decreased. Last week, the start - up rate of the galvanizing industry was about 54.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.41 percentage points, but significantly lower than the high point in December 2025. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy dropped to 49.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, at a six - month low; the start - up rate of zinc oxide was 57.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 percentage points. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the approaching Spring Festival in the northern region, some enterprises had early holidays, and the start - up rate dropped to 40 - 50%. The southern region was relatively stable, but the overall orders were insufficient. Affected by the relatively high zinc price and weak downstream demand, the procurement willingness of enterprises was low, and the pressure of finished product inventory increased [4] Fundamental Changes - Spot and Inventory - As of the week of January 21, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,200 yuan per ton. The spot price gradually declined this week, and the basis discount of 0 zinc in the Yangtze River spot to the main contract widened to - 150 yuan. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - 40.12 US dollars. As of the week of January 21, the LME inventory was 111,800 tons. The LME inventory continued to rise, and the current inventory had climbed to the average level in recent years. In China, the decline of zinc inventory stopped. As of January 19, the domestic social inventory was 112,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, above the average level in recent years. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,311 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2459 tons [6]

供需偏宽松，盘面高位回落 铁矿石周报 20260120 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 交易逻辑：供需偏宽松，盘面高位回落 供应：外矿方面，1月12日-1月18日，全球铁矿石发运总量2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨；澳洲发运量1688万吨，环比减少 243.6万吨；巴西发运量553.7万吨，环比减少110.6万吨，非主流矿发运量1175.6万吨，环比增加175.7万吨。中国45港到港总 量2659.7万吨，环比减少260.7万吨。内矿方面，截至1月16日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量46.67万吨，环比增1.02万吨， 产能利用率59.72%，环比增1.31%；矿山精粉库存87.5万吨，环比增1.18万吨。 需求：1月16日当周，日均铁水产量228.01万吨，环比-1.49万吨。受环保影响，铁水产量小幅回落，叠加包钢事故影响部分高 炉，原料矿石需求有所减弱。 库存：本期进口矿库存持续回升，在港船舶数量增加1艘至117艘。本期压港小幅增加，到港量小幅回落仍维持高位，港口库存 持续累积，对矿价上方空间有所压制，而钢厂库存有所增 ...

Report Overview - Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Chunlei from Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price is stable. The basis of soybean No. 1 is slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling, and the spot price is slightly decreasing. The basis is strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. - It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. Key Points by Category Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is oscillating and stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price in Fujin is around 4400 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton to around 3060 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - There is a regional differentiation in domestic soybeans, and the remaining grain in Northeast China is accelerating to decline. As of January 16, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 40%, a 4% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it has dropped to 50%, a 1% month - on - month decrease; in Henan and Shandong, it remains unchanged at 55% and 56% respectively. Due to the differentiation in grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continues, and the inventory of Northeast soybeans may approach 30% before the Spring Festival. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auctions have been suspended [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - The auctions of imported soybeans continue, and US soybeans may enter the reserves. On January 13, Cofco auctioned 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold. China continues to purchase US soybeans, and due to the high procurement cost, they may be used for reserve rotation later. The arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills has stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continues to decline. As of January 16, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.755 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 7.721 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are gradually stabilizing. The USDA's January supply - demand report is bearish. The US soybean production is slightly increased, exports are slightly decreased, but the ending inventory is significantly increased. The production of Brazilian soybeans is increased, and the global ending inventory is increased. The negative impact of the report is gradually digested, and attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil Mill Situation - The operating rate of oil mills has rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continues to decline. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market has recently declined. As of January 16, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.86%, a month - on - month increase; the soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.8733 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal production was 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 947,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline; the unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.9848 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.94 days, a month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock breeding sector, the pig price has rebounded, and the breeding has turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 48.35 yuan per head, turning profitable; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The data on the inventory of breeding sows in November has not been released yet. From the situation of large - scale farms, the breeding capacity is continuously being reduced, the inventory in December continued to decline month - on - month, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in a year. However, the profitability may slow down the pace of capacity reduction in the later stage. In the poultry sector, the egg price has rebounded, the breeding loss has narrowed, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. Feed demand remains strong, and feed enterprises are actively stocking up [6]. Market Outlook - The sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated, with tight inventory in the Northeast and firm prices. A large number of imported soybeans are being auctioned in China, and the purchased US soybeans may enter the reserves. The port inventory is declining, the operating rate of oil mills is increasing, the soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry are weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills has increased, but with the deepening of the off - season, demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the upward driving force is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: Some steel mills carried out maintenance. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.903 million tons (- 0.74 thousand tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.0836 million tons (+ 2.85 thousand tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Demand increased but was seasonally weak overall. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1.9034 million tons (+ 15.38 thousand tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons (+ 5.82 thousand tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. Rebar total inventory was 4.3807 million tons (- 0.04 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.9541 million tons (+ 5.23 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons (- 5.27 thousand tons); hot - rolled total inventory was 3.6233 million tons (- 5.8 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.858 million tons (- 5.01 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7653 million tons (- 0.79 thousand tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 16, the basis of the rebar main contract was 137 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled main contract was - 15 yuan/ton (+ 9 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills rose to 39.83%; the molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9 thousand tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%; the electric furnace operating rate was 72.97%, unchanged from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.08% [4]. 3.2 Raw Materials - **Prices**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,426 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [17]. 3.3 Steel Mill Operating Conditions - **Molten Iron Output and Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: Molten iron output declined, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. As of January 16, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 90.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% [20][30]. - **Profitability Rate**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased [24]. 3.4 Production - **Rebar**: As of January 16, rebar production decreased by 0.74 thousand tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production decreased by 1.94 thousand tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 1.2 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. 3.5 Demand - **Rebar**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 91.8 thousand tons [43]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 30.2 thousand tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 886.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 thousand tons, and it was at a high level compared to the same period [48]. 3.6 Inventory - **Tangshan Billet**: As of January 16, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 521 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.7 thousand tons. The inventory of major steel products was 8.661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.74 thousand tons [52]. - **Rebar**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly [54]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline [59]. 3.7 Downstream Industries - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197.8 thousand tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [64]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173.3 thousand vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.9 thousand tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand tons [68]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of houses was 597.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises was 93.117 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4% [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the Greenland issue, the U.S. and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a rise in risk - aversion. The market sentiment is slightly optimistic, with the RMB surging to a new high and the U.S. dollar slightly falling. Non - ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and declined across the board. The copper market has high risks, and the upward pressure on copper prices is strong, with high - level volatility intensifying and significant uncertainty in the future [4]. - The Fed's policy uncertainty has increased, and the end - of - the - month Fed interest - rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market. The uncertainty in AI demand is relatively high [5]. Summary by Related Information Market Environment - Due to the Greenland issue, the U.S. and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, causing a rise in risk - aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, and December's economic data generally met expectations. The market sentiment is slightly optimistic, with the RMB surging to a new high and the U.S. dollar slightly falling [4]. Copper Market Performance - Non - ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and declined across the board. Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) declined, London copper (LME copper) rose, and domestic spot copper prices fell. Today, SHFE copper opened higher and then fluctuated, with the spot price at a premium of 160 points over the futures price. The spot basis was at a discount of - 120 points, and spot trading improved slightly. The LME spot premium widened to $62, indicating good foreign - market spot demand. This week, the U.S. copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased, and the SHFE copper inventory increased significantly, with poor spot demand. This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped significantly to a new low of $28, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The ratio of LME copper to SHFE copper dropped to 7.8, and the premium of international copper over SHFE copper dropped significantly to 531 points, with the foreign - market ratio higher than the domestic - market ratio [4]. - Today, LME copper rebounded slightly and was trading around $12,900. SHFE copper opened higher and then fluctuated, closing at 101,180. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE copper declined, and the market sentiment was cautious. In the spot market, domestic spot demand was poor, LME copper demand was average, but U.S. copper buying was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. The foreign - market ratio was stronger than the domestic - market ratio [5]. Copper Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5]. Market Outlook - The international situation remains tense, which provides some support for copper prices. However, the Fed's policy uncertainty has increased, and after the U.S. copper price broke through the previous high, market enthusiasm declined. The uncertainty in AI demand is relatively high, and there is strong pressure above the copper price. High - level volatility has intensified, and the uncertainty in the future market has increased significantly [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is currently experiencing a double reduction in supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to deplete, but strong cost support below, so the short - term market is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the north [2]. - Polysilicon currently has weak supply and demand and inventory pressure, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve due to the shutdown of leading enterprises, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract oscillated, closing at 8,605 yuan/ton on January 16 [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6]. Supply - In Xinjiang, there are both production increases and decreases, with an overall reduction. It is rumored that ore mining is restricted due to weather, and large factories may shut down about 30 furnaces. In Yunnan, production is mainly for integrated supporting or long - term order delivery, and in Sichuan, only a sample large factory is in production. The overall output of industrial silicon has continued to decline month - on - month [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the number of operating furnaces of industrial silicon nationwide was 227, a decrease of 7 from the previous week; the operating rate was 28.16%, a decrease of 0.87%; the weekly output was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [17]. Demand - The start - up of polysilicon is weak, with leading enterprises gradually shutting down from the middle of the month, and the output is expected to decline. The start - up of organic silicon remains stable, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly before the Spring Festival. The price of aluminum alloy ingots has risen with the price of aluminum, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation has been lowered. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon nationwide was 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [2]. Spread - As of January 16, 2026, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [10]. Polysilicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type dense material was 59,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract corrected from a high level, closing at 50,200 yuan/ton on January 16 [3]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of N - type re - fed material was 61,000 yuan/ton, the price of N - type mixed material was 56,500 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type granular material was 58,000 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [13]. Supply - The expected output of polysilicon in January is 104,800 tons. Due to the gradual shutdown of some leading enterprises from the middle of the month, the output in February may be less than 90,000 tons [3]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises' quotations remain high at 63 - 65 yuan/kg, but downstream silicon wafer enterprises are holding down prices and waiting and seeing. Actual transactions are mainly for executing previous orders and a small number of scattered orders. Although there is a rush - to - install demand before the export tax rebate is cancelled in April, the terminal is still in the off - season, the price increase has not been passed on to silicon wafers, the crystal - pulling link is suffering serious losses, and the acceptance of high - priced polysilicon is low. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 297,100 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons from the previous week [21]. Downstream Silicon Wafers - As of January 16, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475 and 1.675 yuan/piece respectively, unchanged from last week. The silicon wafer market is generally stable, leading enterprises' quotations remain stable, the transaction prices of second - and third - tier enterprises have declined slightly. In the terminal off - season, buyers strongly resist high prices, battery factories have good profits and maintain small - order procurement for rigid demand [24]. Battery Cells - As of January 16, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.405, 0.405, 0.405 and 0.405 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.02 yuan/watt from last week. The battery cell market continues to strongly support prices. Exporters are locking in export orders in advance to cope with the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy on April 1, and the export price is significantly higher than the domestic sales price [28]. Components - As of January 16, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.72, 0.735, 0.72 and 0.735 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.035, 0.03, 0.035 and 0.03 yuan/watt from last week. Affected by the upcoming cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, component manufacturers generally raised their quotations [32]. Organic Silicon - As of January 16, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. Recently, the profit of organic silicon monomer factories has improved, and the start - up has remained stable [35]. Aluminum Alloy - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price of aluminum continues to be strong, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation of alloy enterprises has been lowered [39].