Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai lead futures may experience wide - range fluctuations after a decline. Although the domestic supply and demand both increase, the low - level inventory continues to rise, causing the supply - demand situation to weaken marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend. Mid - term attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Changes Processing Fees In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrates in physical volume, with a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average level in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the tight situation of domestic mines continued. The processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat. For spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat [2]. Supply In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, and the monthly output was higher than expected; the output of recycled refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. For primary lead enterprises, there were both maintenance and resumption of production, and the supply increased mainly on a month - on - month basis. The operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces monitored by SMM was 50.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. The refined lead import window remained open, and the import profit margin narrowed slightly. The cost of waste batteries increased, and the profit of recycled lead was still acceptable, with only a slight narrowing of profit. The future growth of recycled lead production was limited but still had room for improvement [3]. Consumption Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces monitored by SMM was 70.77%, a week - on - week increase of 4.18%. After the New Year's Day holiday, lead - acid battery enterprises gradually resumed production, and the weekly operating rate increased. In December, the inventory in the battery industry chain accumulated, and in November, the net export of lead - acid batteries decreased month - on - month. In January, orders decreased, and the production enthusiasm was lower than that in December. Orders from automotive battery and energy - storage battery enterprises were relatively stable, and medium - and large - sized enterprises' production was okay. The operating rates of medium - and large - sized enterprises ranged from 60% to 80%, and a few enterprises even considered early holidays before the Spring Festival. Due to changes in tariff policies, orders from some export - oriented enterprises were sluggish, and there were large differences in the operating rates of production enterprises. At the initial stage of implementing the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more wait - and - see, and the production of electric bicycles declined [4]. Spot As of the week ending January 16, the domestic lead spot basis turned to a premium, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 115 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.18 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory As of the week ending January 16, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,375 tons to 206,400 tons. The LME inventory had been falling continuously from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 6,933 tons to 37,044 tons. As of January 15, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions monitored by SMM reached 27,400 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. 2. Market Outlook and Strategy The LME lead inventory has been falling continuously, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains in a deep discount state, indicating that the overseas lead supply - demand surplus situation continues. The import volume of lead ore increased month - on - month in November, slightly higher than the average level, but the increment was limited. Due to the seasonal off - season of domestic mines in winter, the domestic mine supply remains in a deficit state, and domestic processing fees are operating at a low level. For primary lead, there are both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating rate has increased slightly; the cost of waste batteries has increased, the profit of recycled lead is still acceptable, and the profit has only narrowed slightly. The future growth of recycled lead production is limited but still has room for improvement. The Shanghai - London price ratio has decreased slightly, the domestic import window remains open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. Overall, the domestic supply and demand both increase, but the low - level inventory continues to rise, and the supply - demand situation weakens marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend after a decline [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the Greenland issue, the US and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a resurgence of risk aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year-on-year, and the economic data in December generally met expectations. Market sentiment was slightly optimistic, the RMB soared to a new high, and the US dollar declined slightly. Non-ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and all fell. Today, Shanghai Aluminum fell, London Aluminum rose, and domestic spot aluminum fell. [4] - Technically, US crude oil tumbled today, while London Aluminum rose slightly and traded around $3,152. Shanghai Aluminum rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom today, closing at 24,090, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased and the positions remained stable, and market sentiment was cautious. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains unclear, the international situation is tense, and market sentiment is neutral. At the same time, the speculation on metals has cooled down slightly, and capital enthusiasm has declined. In the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level. In the future, if copper prices fall, it may drive aluminum prices weaker. At the same time, attention should be paid to the situation of spot demand. [5] Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 24,090, and the spot price was 23,870. The spot price was at a discount of -220 points to the futures price. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to -150 yuan. Supply exceeded demand, and spot trading improved. [4] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, and the alumina inventory increased slightly. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the spot demand was poor at the high level in the off-season. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot price had a premium of $9. Overseas spot demand improved. [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Shanghai-London ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.62. The trends of the domestic and overseas markets were generally the same. [4] Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures-Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai-London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January 13 | 6.9735 | -90 | 10 | 7.76 | | January 14 | 6.9714 | -120 | 22 | 7.66 | | January 15 | 6.9629 | -140 | 17 | 7.68 | | January 16 | 6.9674 | -170 | 1 | 7.68 | | January 19 | 6.9581 | -150 | 9 | 7.62 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Since the fourth quarter, PX has been supported by improved downstream demand. Although it is currently profitable and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further upward momentum. In 2026, new PX projects may be implemented after the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand gap is expected to ease before the maintenance season [5]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by the new production capacity, the domestic supply has increased significantly, and the high - import and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. Recently, due to geopolitical uncertainties, the futures and spot prices have risen. In the short term, the market will follow the cost increase and then decline, and it will stabilize at a low level [7]. - Styrene: After the National Day in 2025, styrene was in a wide supply - demand balance. After multiple plant overhauls, the supply - demand gradually shifted to a tight balance. Since December 2025, the futures and spot prices have risen significantly. In the short term, the market is still trading on the strengthening of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern has improved significantly, but there may be certain negative factors in the future [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: Previously, due to geopolitical factors, the price of PX increased. Recently, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the price has fallen from a high level. Sinopec raised the January PX listing price to 7,500 yuan/ton, compared with the December settlement price of 7,020 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Fuhai Chuang plans to overhaul its 160 - million - ton device for three months in the second quarter and expand its capacity to 200 million tons. Zhonghua Quanzhou's 80 - million - ton PX device has been under maintenance since November 25. This week, PX production was 76.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66% [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.72%. This week, the overall domestic PTA capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [5]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The futures price of pure benzene has increased significantly, and the East China price has risen to 5,535 yuan/ton. Since December 2025, the increase has been less than that of other aromatic hydrocarbon varieties. The recent price increase is mainly due to the rise in oil prices and geopolitical news [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In December 2025, the national pure benzene production was 1.9228 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. Currently, the supply - demand situation has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand has improved [7]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in China was 344,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The pressure of concentrated imports has eased, and the import volume has decreased significantly [7]. - **Profit**: Due to insufficient terminal demand, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol among the five major downstream products of pure benzene are still at a loss. The profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline are acceptable [7]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures Performance**: Recently, the main styrene contract has increased significantly, mainly affected by cost changes and the increase in external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,235 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was 303 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 121.30%. On January 15, the daily profit was 372 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 13.46% [8]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week, the total production of styrene plants in China was 355,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 70.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. Zhonghua Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua are under maintenance [8]. - **Downstream**: The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. The overall demand of the three major downstream plants has increased slightly, mainly due to the gradual recovery of EPS plant demand [8]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.77%. The port inventory has decreased this week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of float glass increased slightly this week, with the national average price rising from 1086 yuan/ton on January 8th to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, a weekly increase of about 1.6%. The futures price fluctuated, with the main contract closing price dropping from 1143 yuan/ton to 1086 yuan/ton and then rebounding to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, with a weekly fluctuation range of 5.8%. The price rebound was mainly driven by speculative demand, cold repair expectations, and coal-linked speculation, rather than an improvement in real terminal demand [3]. - The fundamentals of the float glass market show characteristics of "shrinking supply, inventory reduction, weak demand but active speculation". Although the market anticipates a demand recovery after the Spring Festival, the current year-on-year decline in the terminal real estate completion area by about 18% results in weak demand support and limited upward price space. The futures market is oscillating upwards driven by sentiment and capital, but the fundamental support is still insufficient [3]. - The trading in the glass futures market is active this week, with a total trading volume of 8.016 million lots and an open interest of 1.184 million lots. However, the open interest has not significantly increased, indicating fierce long - short competition and no clear unilateral trend. The spot price in Shahe is lower than the futures price, with the basis in a discount state and active arbitrage activities by cash - and - carry traders [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Overview - The national average price of float glass rose from 1086 yuan/ton on January 8th to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, a weekly increase of about 1.6%. The overall production and sales in the industry were acceptable this week, with significant inventory declines in some enterprises and rising prices. There were obvious regional price differences, with prices in East and South China relatively firm and a discount phenomenon in the Shahe area, providing space for cash - and - carry arbitrage. It is expected that the spot price of float glass will be slightly adjusted in the next period, but individual enterprises may flexibly test the market [3]. Supply Side - The supply has been continuously shrinking. Recently, the daily average output of float glass has remained at around 150,000 tons, and the industry's start - up rate and capacity utilization rate have slightly declined month - on - month. There have been few changes in production lines recently. One production line started operation this week, and the weekly output may increase slightly. As of January 15, 2026, the national daily output of float glass was 150,700 tons [3]. Demand Side - In late January, glass processing plants are mainly rushing to complete orders, but their willingness to stock up is low due to factors such as capital. There are regional demand differences. The enthusiasm of middle - stream buyers in Shahe and Hubei continues, while some processing plants in the South are mainly rushing to complete orders. The start - up rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises is 73.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trend of deep - processing orders in the north - south regions is diverging, with a slight increase in the executable days of southern orders and a decline in orders in the northern and central regions [3]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89% [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the average weekly profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, and the profit using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton. The industry as a whole is still in a loss state, and the cost side has limited support for prices. Soda ash prices are stable, and coal and petroleum coke prices are stable. It is expected that the production costs of enterprises using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels will not change much next week [3]. Market Judgment - The closing price of the main contract of float glass futures fluctuated downward from 1143 yuan/ton to 1086 yuan/ton this week and then rebounded to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, with a weekly fluctuation range of 5.8%. The price rebound was mainly driven by speculative demand, cold repair expectations, and coal - linked speculation, rather than an improvement in real terminal demand. The market anticipates a demand recovery after the Spring Festival, but the current year - on - year decline in the terminal real estate completion area by about 18% results in weak demand support and limited upward price space. The fundamentals show characteristics of "shrinking supply, inventory reduction, weak demand but active speculation". The futures market is oscillating upwards driven by sentiment and capital, but the fundamental support is still insufficient. The trading in the glass futures market is active this week, with a total trading volume of 8.016 million lots and an open interest of 1.184 million lots. However, the open interest has not significantly increased, indicating fierce long - short competition and no clear unilateral trend. The spot price in Shahe is lower than the futures price, with the basis in a discount state and active arbitrage activities by cash - and - carry traders [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core of soda ash futures is "strong supply, weak demand, high inventory, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. Fundamentals are dominated by negative factors. There is a long - short game in the market, but the bears are in the dominant position, and there is no substantial rebound in the short term." The SA2605 main contract fluctuated weakly in the range of 1,190 - 1,230 yuan/ton this week and closed at 1,193 yuan/ton on January 16th. The 20 - day moving average formed a suppression. The trading volume of SA2605 exceeded 5.71 million lots this week, and the open interest reached 1.196 million lots, making it the most active contract in the entire market, indicating high - level participation of funds. The net short position of the main contract continued to increase, with the bears increasing their positions more aggressively than the bulls, and the market sentiment was bearish. - The core suppression factors are strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although there were small rebounds driven by the sentiment in the chemical sector, they lacked fundamental support and quickly declined. Downstream players were highly cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand, and speculative demand was not sustainable. In the short term, the market is expected to remain fluctuating weakly, with the reference range of 1,180 - 1,230 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is advisable to short on rallies, paying attention to the pressure level around 1,300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to mainly observe or take small - short positions in the short term and set stop - losses. In the medium term, short positions can be established after rebounds [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the fundamental pressure on the soda ash market remained unchanged. The supply side continued to operate at a high level, inventory continued to accumulate, and the weak demand for heavy soda ash dragged down the overall trend. Although the futures price fluctuated downward, the downward space was limited due to the cost bottom line and the structural demand for light soda ash. The market is still in a volatile pattern of "weak reality and expectation - based game" in the short term [2] Supply - The weekly output of soda ash this week was 77.53 tons. As of January 15th, the national operating rate of soda ash remained at a high level of 86.82%, among which the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process was 89.95%, and that of the co - production process was 78.88%. The capacity utilization rate was stable, and the release rhythm of new production capacity did not slow down. The weekly output reached 75.36 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase, and the pressure on the supply side continued [2] Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass this week was 150,700 tons, an increase of 680 tons month - on - month, while that of photovoltaic glass was 87,200 tons, a decrease of 950 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash was affected by the slight decline in the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash continued to weaken, with low purchasing willingness from downstream players. The operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry remained above 87%, providing stable support for light soda ash and becoming the main supporting force on the demand side [2] Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers nationwide was 1.575 million tons, an increase of 10,300 tons (+0.66%) week - on - week, with inventory accumulating for multiple consecutive weeks, and the inventory pressure showed no sign of relief. The inventory of heavy soda ash increased from 720,700 tons on January 12th to 738,000 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons week - on - week, reflecting the weak demand in the downstream glass industry. The inventory of light soda ash slightly decreased from 844,000 tons to 837,000 tons, indicating relatively resilient demand on the light soda ash side. The social inventory increased slightly, with the total amount exceeding 380,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. The previous replenishment transactions of futures - cash traders were good, and enterprises were gradually making deliveries [2] Profit - The production cost of soda ash remained at a high level, and the industry as a whole was in a state of deep loss. Although the price fluctuations of steam coal pushed up the cost, the long - term loss in the industry suppressed the willingness for active production cuts. The cost line became an important support for the price decline, forming a weak equilibrium pattern of "low profit + high inventory" [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Corn Rebounds and Rises Further, Downstream Continues to Increase Inventory" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Author: Chen Chunlei [2] - Affiliation: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [2] Group 2: Market Performance - Corn Futures: The main corn 2603 contract continued to rebound, reaching a high of 2305, a new high in nearly a year. The spot price slightly increased, with the Pingcang price in Bayuquan rising from 2310 yuan/ton to around 2330 yuan/ton and the arrival price in Shekou Port rising from 2450 yuan/ton to around 2460 yuan/ton. The corn basis weakened, and the futures discount narrowed [3]. - Starch Futures: The main starch 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded. The starch price remained stable, with the price of Weifang Jinyu corn starch at 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [3]. Group 3: Supply Analysis - New Grain Sales: The sales progress of new grain slowed down, with regional differentiation. As of January 15, the national grain sales progress was 53%, the same as the previous year. Northeast China was 52%, 3% faster than the previous year; North China was 48%, 3% slower than the previous year; and Northwest China was 68%, 1% slower than the previous year. China Grain Reserves Corporation conducted public bidding and procurement, with a significant amount of supply. As of January 16, 602,000 tons had been put on the market, and 479,000 tons were sold. In addition, import auctions also supplemented the market. The tight supply of high - quality grain in North China still supported prices [3]. - Port Inventories: As of January 9, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.332 million tons, decreasing compared to the previous period and at a low level in recent years. The weekly shipments were 695,000 tons, maintaining a relatively high level. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 497,000 tons, continuing to increase, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 264,000 tons, decreasing [4]. - Substitute and Import: Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat production may decrease. The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, making substitution unfeasible. China's corn imports increased significantly after October last year and may continue to rise to adjust the domestic corn supply - demand balance [4]. - International Market: The US corn price dropped sharply. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the US corn production to a record high due to increased yields and harvest areas, leading to a nearly 10% increase in ending stocks and a 44% increase compared to the previous year. The South American corn production remained unchanged, and the global corn ending stocks increased by 4.2%, but were still 1.29% lower than the previous year [4]. Group 4: Demand Analysis - Feed Demand: Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming became profitable again. As of January 16, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, turning from loss to profit, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The inventory of sow - producing sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sow - producing sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month, with an increasing reduction rate. In November, large - scale farms reduced the inventory of sow - producing sows, the sales of piglets decreased, but the inventory of commercial pigs increased. It was difficult for the pig inventory to decline in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the losses in poultry farming narrowed. In December, the sales of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old hens continued to increase to a high level in recent years. The inventory of laying hens in December may have slightly decreased again. As the Spring Festival approached, the price increase of livestock and poultry products may lead to upstream profits and slow down the process of capacity reduction, and feed demand may remain strong [5]. - Deep - processing Demand: Deep - processing demand was insufficient. Most starch processing enterprises had losses in processing profits, and the operating rate continued to decline. As of January 16, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 57.65%, continuing to decline. The starch inventory was 1.1 million tons, continuing to decrease. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the operating rate dropped to 58.02%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises increased, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5]. Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Downstream Inventories: Downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase their corn inventories. As of January 16, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.59 million tons, continuing to increase but at a low level in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.15 days, increasing [4]. Group 6: Outlook and Suggestions - Market Outlook: The sales of new grain slowed down, and the expectation of tight supply of high - quality grain still supported prices. Public bidding and auctions supplemented the market. Downstream enterprises continued to replenish inventory, and demand was differentiated. The report was still optimistic about corn prices in the first half of the year [5]. - Suggestions: Grain - using enterprises were advised to purchase spot according to demand and maintain a safe reserve. Traders were advised to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing a situation of strong upstream and weak downstream. The geopolitical situation overseas has led to a stronger upward trend in the cost - end, providing certain support to the market. However, the seasonal decline in the terminal has dragged down the market, and downstream negative feedback is gradually accumulating. Polyester raw materials are moving in a volatile manner in the game between upstream and downstream [4][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - Since early January, due to the unstable overseas situation, the oil price center has been continuously rising. In 2025, there was no new PX production capacity, and the production capacity showed a negative growth after excluding long - shut - down devices. The production increased by 1%. The profit of PX short - and medium - process devices has improved significantly. Currently, PX - N is at $340/ton, and PX - MX is also at a recent high of $148/ton. The high profit has stimulated the high operating rate of PX. The load of PX in mainland China has risen to around 91%, and the load in other Asian regions has also reached a two - year high. The maintenance volume of PX devices at home and abroad in the first quarter is limited. Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to increase, but in the medium and long term, PX is expected to remain strong in the first half of this year [5]. PTA Market - In 2025, the average spot processing fee of PTA was only 257 yuan/ton, a new low in recent years. Some small and medium - sized devices with poor competitiveness gradually withdrew from the market. After excluding 262.5 million tons of long - shut - down devices, the PTA production capacity at the end of 2025 was 92.09 million tons, a 7% increase from the end of 2024. The annual production growth rate was only 2% due to low profits. In 2026, there are no new PTA devices planned to be put into operation. With about 4 million tons of new polyester production capacity planned to be put into operation downstream, the processing fee of PTA is expected to improve. Recently, the PTA processing difference has improved from less than 200 yuan/ton in late December to over 300 yuan/ton. The current PTA device load is 78%, and the average load is expected to decline again. According to the average operating load of 88 - 89% in January, the monthly inventory accumulation of PTA is about 100,000 tons, with a small accumulation range [6]. Terminal and Polyester Market - As the year - end approaches, the terminal loom load has begun to decline rapidly, and the current load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 56%. It is expected to decline more significantly after late January. However, the polyester market in the middle link has shown great resilience. The current average operating rate of polyester is still at a recent high of 90.8%. The high operating rate of polyester benefits from the good inventory level. Although there has been some inventory accumulation recently due to insufficient downstream procurement, the inventory pressure is relatively small. Mainstream filament manufacturers have decided to start a continuous production cut of 15% from January 14, involving FDY and POY, and may increase the production cut according to market conditions [7][10]. MEG Market - After excluding 1.045 million tons of long - shut - down devices at the end of 2025, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity was adjusted to 29.23 million tons. In early January, the domestic average load was 73.9%. There were maintenance plans for some ethylene - based devices, and the load of coal - based devices continued to increase, with the current average load at a high of 79%. New devices have been put into operation, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has risen to 737,000 tons, with room for further increase. Overseas, some devices have been shut down, but the overall supply is still relatively abundant. Recently, the profits of different ethylene glycol processes have shown differentiation, and the ethylene glycol price has shown a strong and volatile trend under the influence of coal price [8][9]. Short - fiber Market - Since the end of 2025, the short - fiber load has been operating at a high level, reaching a historical high of 97.6%. The good export data in 2025 has alleviated the pressure of poor domestic sales. The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the factory's inventory management is good. The current short - fiber inventory is still in a low - level range in the past year. Affected by raw materials, the current spot processing fee is below 1,000 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival this year, short - fiber factories are not very willing to carry out maintenance and are expected to maintain a high - load operation. The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn factories is 70.4%, and the yarn factory's processing profit has increased [13]. Bottle - chip Market - Since mid - last year, due to low profits, factories have carried out centralized production cuts. The average load of bottle - chip factories has been maintained at around 80%. With the acceleration of year - end shipments, the average inventory pressure of bottle - chip factories has been relieved, and the current inventory is around 15 days. Recently, the bottle - chip processing fee has improved to 515 yuan/ton, and the average factory load has reached 83%. A new 300,000 - ton device was put into operation at the end of last year. As of now, the domestic bottle - chip production capacity has reached 21.47 million tons, a 5% increase from the end of 2024. There is no new production capacity in the first half of 2026, and the total maintenance during the Spring Festival is not large. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to protect the processing fee at high prices [14]. Important Data - On January 13, the PX - N spread was $338/ton, and the PTA processing fee was 302 yuan/ton [19]. - On January 12, the ethylene glycol port inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 740,000 tons, and at the end of December, the MEG factory inventory was 358,000 tons. In early January, the MEG raw material inventory of polyester factories was 14 days [25][29]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of MEG was 6.8849 million tons, a 15.2% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. - In the week of January 9, the polyester operating rate was 90.8%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate was 56% [41]. - In December 2025, textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were $12.58 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%, and clothing exports were $13.41 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative retail sales of textile, clothing, footwear, and knitting products in China were 135.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [62][63][67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of lead in China is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and overseas lead concentrate processing fees remain stable at a low level. The domestic monthly processing fee in January is 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged month - on - month. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore is 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply** - **Primary Lead**: In December 2025, the primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters last week was 66.60%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Some smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, South China, and East China have production fluctuations, maintenance, or delayed resumption of production [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In December 2025, the secondary refined lead output was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead last week was 49.01%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. After the environmental protection control was lifted, the production of secondary lead enterprises in Anhui gradually resumed. Some enterprises in Henan increased or decreased production due to different reasons. Some large smelters in Inner Mongolia expressed the intention to stop production. The raw material inventory of secondary lead enterprises has further declined, and the later supply release pressure is still limited. The import window of refined lead continues to open, and the profit has increased [3]. - **Consumption** - The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises last week was 65.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. After the holiday factor is eliminated, the production of lead - acid battery enterprises will continue to recover. The operating rate of large battery enterprises is 70 - 80%, and that of small and medium - sized battery enterprises is about 70%. The finished battery inventory is generally more than 22 days. The energy storage and automobile sectors drive the consumption resilience, but the sales of new - standard electric two - wheeled vehicles are poor, and some enterprises' orders have shrunk [4]. - As of the week of January 9, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated, and the lead spot basis was at a discount of 15 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be at a deep discount, with a discount of - 44.05 US dollars at the end of last week [4]. - **Inventory** - As of the week of January 9, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,600 tons to 222,700 tons, and the LME inventory has continuously declined from a high level but is still at a high level in recent years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,107 tons to 30,111 tons. As of January 12, the total social inventory of SMM's five - place lead ingots reached 24,800 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas, the LME lead inventory has continuously declined from a high level, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains at a deep discount, indicating a continued oversupply situation. The import of lead ore in November increased month - on - month, but the increase was limited, and the domestic mine supply still has a gap. The operating rate of primary lead remains high; the profit of secondary lead is acceptable, but the raw material inventory has further decreased, and the later supply pressure is limited. The import window of lead ingots continues to open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. - Downstream, the energy storage and automobile sectors still drive the consumption resilience, but the consumption of electric bicycles is weak. The domestic lead inventory is accumulating at a low level. Overall, although there are both production cuts and resumptions in China, the supply pressure is not large due to raw material shortages. However, the pressure of import inflow has increased, and the domestic lead supply - demand has weakened marginally. Considering the short - term low domestic inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of lead is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the decline in cotton area in Xinjiang is a certain event, but the market doubts the actual decline, and it is difficult to confirm in the short term. Based on the area expectation and the domestic lint sales progress, there is strong support below the Zhengzhou cotton price. Meanwhile, the downstream demand is average, and factors such as the stable - to - decreasing spinning mill operation rate and poor profitability restrict the price increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and downstream restocking [4]. - The USDA increased the domestic cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season by 1 million bales to 34.5 million bales, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. As of January 11, the national cotton inspection volume was 6.7838 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.62%, and the increase has narrowed compared with the initial stage. If the gap with the USDA's 7.8% production increase does not continue to narrow, there is still a possibility of further production adjustment, but the adjustment volume is expected to be limited. In January, the USDA slightly increased the US cotton production forecast by 350,000 bales, which is in line with the conclusion of "limited adjustment space" in the previous report [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs New Cotton Area and Sales - In late December, the Xinjiang Cotton Association announced that the cotton area would decline, but did not specify the decline rate. The market expects a reduction in the cotton target price in 2026, which will affect the cotton planting willingness in Xinjiang and is bullish for cotton prices in the medium - to - long term [5]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 55.6%, 24.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. As of the end of December, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.7843 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons, with the increase rate basically the same as that of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons. Despite the significant increase in cotton production this year, there is no obvious increase in commercial inventory, and the overall inventory pressure is temporarily not large [5]. Price and Spread - Domestic Zhengzhou cotton shows a relatively strong trend due to the resonance of supply expectation tightening and market sentiment, while US cotton fluctuates narrowly due to weak continuous signing. The domestic - foreign cotton price spread has widened to a stage high. Geopolitical turmoil and uncertainties in trade policies in the international market may affect cotton demand [6]. - As of Tuesday this week, the price spread between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased by a certain amount week - on - week; the price spread with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff also increased week - on - week. The price spread between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price increased week - on - week [52]. Market Transaction and Inventory - According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending January 1, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week, a 49% decrease from the four - week average, and a 24% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of January 12, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.819 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [36]. - As of Tuesday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 10,117 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou cotton yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 77 sheets [61]. Downstream Situation - The downstream demand is average. Spinning mill operation rates are stable - to - decreasing, and profitability is poor, which restricts the increase of cotton prices [4]. - Information on downstream raw material inventories (such as cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills), finished - product inventories, and operating loads is presented in relevant charts, but specific numerical summaries are not clearly given in the text [41][44][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for logs is showing a contraction trend, with regional differentiation. The southern market may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling, while the northern market is weakening. In the long - term, the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and in the medium - term, prices may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026 [3][4][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Industry Data 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. The price of radiata pine logs in Jiangsu rose due to supply contraction and demand support. - Futures: As of January 13, the log main contract 2603 closed at 774.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a 3.85% decrease compared to late December 2025 [2] 3.1.2 Supply - From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports this week (January 12 - 18, 2026): 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 18% increase compared to last week, with a total arrival volume of about 411,000 cubic meters, an 8% increase. - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week (January 5 - 11, 2026): 11 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a 15% decrease compared to the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 380,000 cubic meters, a 12% decrease. - In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a 16.86% month - on - month increase and a 2.58% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the total import volume was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a 7.07% year - on - year decrease [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 13, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. - Overall, downstream demand is weak and stable, the arrival volume pressure is rising, and high arrival volumes are continuously pressuring port log inventory and spot prices. Inventory decreased in December due to reduced previous arrivals, but has started to accumulate since January [3] 3.1.4 Demand - From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 27,900 cubic meters, a 3.46% decrease; the average daily outbound volume at Jiangsu ports was 23,500 cubic meters, an 8.29% increase. - Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The southern Yangtze River Delta region may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling and low arrival pressure, but the increase is limited. The northern market is in the final stage before the holiday, with weakening demand and a possible weakening price trend [3] 3.1.5 Recent News and Outlook - China's import of radiata pine shows a trend of resource centralization, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source is accumulating. - Anti - involution policies have an indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries, and there is a high correlation between construction wood and coke. - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May may boost wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish. The suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended, and there are still uncertainties in the export cost of Chinese wood products. - The EU Commission has imposed higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on cardboard from China. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs, but the short - term arrival and clearance volume will be limited. - New Zealand's log supply to China is expected to slow down before the Chinese Spring Festival, and there may be a slight increase in the new round of outer - market quotes [4] 3.1.6 Strategies and Suggestions - In summer from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but the market's long - term expectation for real estate demand was cautious, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak differentiation trend. - In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. The 2511 contract fell rapidly after the peak season, and the 2601 contract oscillated strongly at first and then fell. - In the short - term, the 2601 contract is oscillating at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively stronger. The outer - market quote for New Zealand radiata pine logs in January 2026 has slightly decreased, and the overall demand is expected to contract in the future. - In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. Whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on the real estate industry's support policies and the post - Spring Festival cost and demand recovery [5] 3.2 Log Import Sources - Radiata pine is mainly imported from New Zealand, and fir and spruce are mainly imported from Europe [14] 3.3 Log Import Volume - The data shows the monthly port shipping volume, departure ship number, and total import volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 - 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] 3.4 Log Inventory - The data presents the inventory of logs at different ports and of different varieties in China, including the inventory of coniferous logs, radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce [21] 3.5 Log Outbound Volume - The data shows the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 - 2026, as well as the average daily outbound volume at Shandong and Jiangsu ports [24][27] 3.6 Log Demand - Related Data - The data includes the weekly outbound volume of cement, the weekly shipping volume of concrete, the actual in - place funds of real - estate development enterprises, and the correlation between building materials products [30][33]