Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Slightly Weaken, Futures Market Ranges" - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20251027 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Guisheng [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The current iron ore supply and demand situation is slightly weak, and it will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. The report suggests a range - bound trading strategy and advises to pay attention to changes in macro sentiment [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading Logic - **Supply**: From October 20th - 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3388.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.8 million tons. Australian shipments were 1984.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, while Brazilian shipments were 941.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2029.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 490.2 million tons. As of October 24th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 47.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07%. Mine concentrate inventory was 91.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of October 24th, the daily average pig iron output was 239.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 million tons. The profitability rate dropped significantly this period, and pig iron output continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. There was some rigid demand for restocking support, but the steel mills' profitability continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 17 to 107. The congestion situation decreased significantly, and the inventory transferred to the port, increasing the port inventory pressure. Steel mills' inventory remained at a low level [5] - **Basis**: The basis of contracts 01 and 05 fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [7] - **Ore Powder Spread**: The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, were both in low - level oscillations [13][17] - **Contract Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread did not fluctuate much, and the basis of contract 01 oscillated at a low level [21] - **Relative Valuation**: The rebar - ore ratio oscillated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillated downward [28] 3.3 Supply Details - Global shipments increased slightly, and non - mainstream ore shipments also increased slightly [34] - Australian ore shipments to China decreased slightly, while Brazilian ore shipments continued to increase [38] - FMG shipments to China decreased, while BHP shipments increased slightly [42] - RT and VALE shipments both increased slightly [46] - The freight rate index fluctuated slightly [50] - The arrival volume continued to decline [54] - The output of domestic iron concentrate changed little [57] 3.4 Demand Details - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces rebounded at a low level [63] - The profitability rate of steel mills decreased, and pig iron output decreased [69] 3.5 Inventory Details - The port's ore handling volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to increase [78] - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continued to increase [82] - The coarse powder inventory oscillated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory continued to increase [89] - Steel mills' consumption decreased slowly at a high level, and the inventory of imported ore remained at a low level [97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry have improved, but downstream demand remains weak. The price of coking coal and coke has increased this week, strengthening cost - side support and limiting the downside space for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 2.0707 million tons (+59,100 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2246 million tons (+6,200 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2601 million tons (+62,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2673 million tons (+111,800 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 6.2211 million tons (-189,400 tons), social inventory was 4.3748 million tons (-189,300 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.8463 million tons (-1,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1492 million tons (-42,700 tons), social inventory was 3.3757 million tons (-37,700 tons), and steel mill inventory was 773,500 tons (-5,000 tons) [5]. - **Basis**: Futures fluctuated, and the basis was volatile [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease; pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, a 0.44% week - on - week increase, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a 0.99% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease [5]. 3.2. Macro Aspect - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and the two sides reached a preliminary consensus. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that in key areas, the total steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited [6]. 3.3. Raw Materials - **Prices**: This week, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton (a 40 - yuan increase), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,575 yuan/ton (no change), and the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/ton (no change) [17]. - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: Pig iron output continued to decline, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased. As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.44% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99% week - on - week, and pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons [19][21]. 3.4. Steel Mill Profitability As of October 24th, the profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease. The increase in cost - side prices squeezed steel profits [29]. 3.5. Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate As of October 24th, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.44%, a 1.76% week - on - week increase [33]. 3.6. Steel Production As of October 24th, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production increased by 44,100 tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 6,200 tons week - on - week and remained at a high level [38]. 3.7. Demand - Rebar consumption increased by 62,600 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 111,800 tons week - on - week [44]. - As of October 24th, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 100,500 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level. The weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,900 tons. Downstream cold - rolled production was 860,700 tons, a 13,400 - ton week - on - week decrease with an increased decline [47][52]. 3.8. Steel Inventory - As of October 24th, Tangshan billet inventory was 540,100 tons, a 96,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The inventory of major steel products was 10.9942 million tons, a 261,000 - ton week - on - week decrease [55]. - Rebar total inventory decreased by 189,400 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 189,300 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 1,000 tons week - on - week [57]. - Hot - rolled total inventory decreased by 42,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 37,700 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 5,000 tons week - on - week [62]. 3.9. Steel Exports In August, steel exports were 9.41 million tons, a 330,000 - ton month - on - month decrease; from January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year - on - year increase [65]. 3.10. Automobile Production and Sales - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million tons, a 209,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. 3.11. Real Estate Data From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the newly started housing area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the completed housing area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the funds in place decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [71][72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in Shanghai lead prices is mainly driven by overseas funds, but there is a large expectation that the domestic fundamentals will gradually weaken, and overseas lead supply is not scarce. The upward trend of lead prices lacks sustainable driving force. In the short - term, lead may remain relatively strong, but the risk at high levels is increasing, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Overseas Market - The cancellation ratio of LME lead inventory warrants has exceeded 60%, and the risk of overseas warrants is relatively large. Although the LME lead inventory has decreased recently, it is still at a high level in recent years, and the overall supply - demand of lead is relatively loose, so the driving force at the spot warrant level is difficult to last [2] Domestic Market - **Supply Side**: Pre - maintenance primary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the supply has increased month - on - month. The supply pressure of recycled lead is also expected to increase in the medium term. Since mid - October, the cost of waste batteries has decreased, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been continuously repaired, and the willingness to resume production has increased. Although short - term environmental protection control has affected the transportation of recycled lead and adjusted the resumption plan of some refineries, the medium - term supply recovery momentum still exists [4] - **Demand Side**: The demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [4] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, domestic lead inventory has continued to decline to 32,800 tons, at an absolute low in recent years, indicating that the supply side has not weakened yet. The vehicle control in Hebei has affected the transportation of waste batteries and lead ingots, and short - term environmental protection control has supported lead prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain harvest is in the second half, with significant pressure from increased production in Northeast China and damaged grain quality due to mold in North China. Demand is strong, and there may be a shortage of high - quality corn in the later period. It is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality wet grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - Corn main contract 2601 oscillated and stabilized. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan rose from 2150 yuan/ton to around 2180 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port remained stable at around 2310 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, with the futures slightly at a discount. - Starch main contract 2601 stopped falling and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened oscillating [4]. Supply - side Situation - **Grain Quality Differentiation**: In the second half of the autumn harvest, grain quality differentiated. Corn production increased in Northeast China, and the harvest was nearing completion with good quality but pressure from increased supply. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, previous continuous rainy weather led to poor grain quality such as mold and germination. High - quality corn in Northeast China was favored, and the public auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation had a large - volume transaction. On October 20, 14,217 tons were put up for auction and all were sold [4]. - **Channel Inventory**: As of October 17, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 959,000 tons and continued to rise; the weekly shipping volume reached a high of 804,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to decline to 118,000 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory rebounded to 362,000 tons. The inventory of downstream enterprises varied. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, reaching 2.622 million tons as of October 24, while the corn inventory of feed enterprises decreased to 24.04 days, remaining at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Grain Substitution and Imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn widened to around 200, and wheat lost its substitution advantage. The auction of policy rice stopped. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80.7%; from January to September, a total of 936,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, imports were expected to remain low [5]. - **Foreign Market**: The US corn in the foreign market oscillated and rebounded. There was significant pressure from the concentrated harvest of US corn, and production increased. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture's reports were suspended [5]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed Demand**: Pig prices were low, and pig farming suffered large losses. As of October 17, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 244.7 yuan per head. Even leading pig enterprises such as Muyuan had started to incur losses. Policy regulation of production capacity was lagging and insufficient, and short - term inventory reduction was difficult. Although the inventory of breeding sows had been adjusted downward, the adjustment was small, and the overall progress was slow, far from the regulation target. Pig inventory might still increase inertia. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell again, and egg - chicken farming suffered losses again. The inventory of laying hens in production increased in September. The loss and cycle of egg - chicken farming were insufficient, leading to a delay in production - capacity adjustment. In September, the feed production volume was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production volume was 246.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Feed demand remained strong [6]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises might pick up, and the peak season was gradually approaching. A large amount of low - priced moldy corn could only enter the deep - processing sector, significantly reducing the cost of deep - processing enterprises. The starch - processing profit was fully profitable, and the operating rate increased. As of October 17, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 55.62%, showing an overall upward trend recently. Starch inventory decreased. Some alcohol - processing enterprises had profits, and the operating rate increased to 61.67%, also showing an overall upward trend recently. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises was weak, while that of paper - making enterprises was strong [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals due to continuous inventory reduction, it shows a "weak peak season" characteristic. In the short - term, cost rebound and geopolitical uncertainties provide some support. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an expectation of tightened supply in November and a possibility of PXN repair. If there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts, PX processing fees and absolute prices will likely remain low, with limited room for further decline [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish for prices. In the short - term, further decline is limited due to low prices and downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an oversupply expectation and persistent supply - demand contradictions [4]. - Styrene market: It is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Although downstream demand has improved compared to the off - season, the low - profit situation of styrene devices is expected to continue, and prices will likely fluctuate at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Price - International oil prices rebounded slightly from a low level. The current price of naphtha is $573, and the PX CFR price is $812. Sinopec's PX listed price in October is 6,800 yuan/ton, while the settlement price in September was 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Production and Devices - Domestic PX output was 724,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 86.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%. Some devices such as Urumqi Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua are under maintenance and are planned to restart in late October or early November [3]. Supply and Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%. PX is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand during the peak season [3]. Spread - The report presents historical data on spreads such as PX - N, PX - MX, crude oil - naphtha, and BZ - N [16]. Pure Benzene Spot and Futures - The main pure benzene contract 2603 has been declining since mid - September and rebounded slightly this week following cost - side positive factors. The basis between the futures and the East China spot has narrowed and remained stable [4]. Supply and Demand - In September 2025, the estimated monthly output was 1.932 million tons, the import volume was 440,000 tons, and the total supply was 2.712 million tons, while the total demand was 2.593 million tons. Supply and demand both decreased, with supply exceeding demand [4]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 99,000 tons, a 10% week - on - week increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. Profit - Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss - making state, while aniline still has profits and the profit margin has slightly expanded [4]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The main styrene contract has been weakly oscillating, continuing the downward trend since mid - September. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,585 yuan/ton, lower than before [5]. Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China this week was - 556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 9.44% [5]. Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65%. The capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% [5]. Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was less than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to mid - May. EPS demand has increased significantly after the National Day holiday, ABS demand has increased slightly, and PS demand has decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a 3.05% increase from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 122,500 tons, a 0.82% increase from the previous period. It is expected that port inventory will decrease slightly in the future [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengzhou Cotton: Rising Cost of Cotton Lint [1][40] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] - Qualification Number: F0272777 [3] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0010085 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Trump's continuous signals have led the market to have positive expectations for China-US trade relations; as the domestic cotton harvest progresses, the market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward compared to the previous period, and the purchase price of seed cotton has steadily increased. Recently, both domestic and international cotton prices have rebounded, with Zhengzhou cotton showing stronger rebound momentum than US cotton. Although downstream demand remains lackluster, the rising price of seed cotton has increased the cost of cotton lint, and the hedging pressure range has shifted upward. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, but due to the expected high yield and average downstream demand, the upward space is currently limited [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Expectations and Production Estimates - Trump's signals have created positive expectations for China-US trade relations, which may boost cotton prices if favorable. The market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward due to concerns about the impact of rainfall and cooling in Xinjiang on cotton yield and quality [4][5]. - As of October 16, the national cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of machine-picked seed cotton has been rising steadily. As of the previous day, the purchase price index of machine-picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week; in northern Xinjiang, it was 6.21 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [5]. - As of October 21, the cumulative inspection of cotton lint in the 2025 cotton year nationwide was 97.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%, with Xinjiang accounting for 96.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [5][6]. Import and Inventory - In September, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 22,300 tons but a month-on-month increase of 22,300 tons. From January to September this year, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 million tons, a decline of 69.9%. In September, the import volume of cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and flat month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons, a decline of 7.7%. In terms of import proportion, Australian cotton had the highest import volume in September, and Vietnamese cotton yarn had the highest import volume [7]. - As of the end of September, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 660,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, it was 1.72 million tons, only slightly higher than at the end of September last year [7]. Price Trends - From October 15 to October 22, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,270 yuan/ton to 13,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton, while the price of the active contract of US cotton decreased from 63.83 cents/pound to 63.65 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.18 cents/pound [8]. - From October 14 to October 21, the Cotlook A price index rose from 74.95 cents/pound to 75.6 cents/pound, an increase of 0.65 cents/pound. From October 13 to October 20, the price of Indian S-6 cotton decreased from 54,200 rupees/candy to 52,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 1,300 rupees/candy [10]. - From October 15 to October 22, the port pick-up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - From October 15 to October 22, the arrival prices of imported cotton (1% tariff and sliding duty) from the US and Brazil increased to varying degrees [12]. Downstream Market - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of Keqiao Textile showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of raw materials (cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills) and finished products in the downstream market also showed different trends [37][39][42]. - The operating load of the downstream yarn and fabric industries also showed certain fluctuations [43][44]. Futures Market - As of Wednesday this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week. The price index of C32S cotton yarn increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week [46]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton price index under sliding duty and 1% tariff increased week-on-week. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick-up price increased week-on-week [48]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week-on-week, and the loss of the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn widened week-on-week [49]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2,851, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 [55].

Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Key Points 1. Market Review - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. The laboratory tests of B50 fuel were completed in August, and it will enter the road test stage. As of September 2025, the B40 policy is in full implementation. The biodiesel distribution target in 2025 is 15.6 million kiloliters, a significant increase from 13.4 million kiloliters in 2024. The government plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Based on B35 blending requirements, the corresponding crude palm oil demand is about 12.3 million tons, and for B40 it's about 14.3 million tons. If the B50 plan is implemented in 2026, the annual demand for palm oil - based biofuels will increase to 20.1 million kiloliters. Indonesia also plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax to 15% [4]. - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of key information such as USDA monthly supply - demand reports and export sales data. The government's subsidy policy for farmers is postponed, and the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain. A new round of Sino - US trade negotiations is upcoming [4]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons [6]. Demand - As of October 17, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 4,233 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,383 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,700 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12,920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,500 tons [7]. Inventory - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 575,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,100 tons, or 5.13% [8][20]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons, or 3.25% [8][27]. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, or 3.16% [8][29]. Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1,085 per ton; the CIF price was $1,106 per ton; the import cost was 9,425 yuan per ton; the hedging profit for the November shipment was - 115 yuan per ton, and for the December shipment was - 216 yuan per ton [9]. Production - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 15, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 5.76% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.86% month - on - month. From October 11 - 17, 3 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, 1 for November and 2 for December [10]. - As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1616 million tons, the operating rate was 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [10][26]. Spot Price - As of October 17, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - In September 2025, affected by rainfall, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, but the output remained at a high level. The inventory in September was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [14]. - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [16]. India's Palm Oil Import - In September, due to Indian refineries switching to cheaper soybean oil, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports reached a three - year high. The palm oil import volume was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [18]. China's Palm Oil - In September, China's palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [20]. - In September, the palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [21]. - As of October 17, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 115 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54 yuan per ton [24]. China's Soybean Oil - As of October 17, the oil mill operating rate rebounded to 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [26]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons. In September, the soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [27]. China's Rapeseed Oil - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons, at a low level year - on - year. The rapeseed processing rate dropped to 3.2%, and the rapeseed crushing volume dropped to 12,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline [29]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: From October 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil output increased. Palm oil exports improved in early October. In September, India's palm oil imports dropped to a four - month low. Palm oil is entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Indonesia's biodiesel policy supports long - term demand. China's palm oil inventory increased, and it will fluctuate in the short term [31]. - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean planting is going well. China has not purchased US soybeans. Due to the US government shutdown, key data is missing, and the biodiesel policy is uncertain. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September was still high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, the soybean oil output increased, and the inventory decreased but remained at a high level. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [31]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. There are expectations of improved Sino - Canadian relations, which put pressure on rapeseed oil prices. The domestic oil mill operating rate decreased, the rapeseed oil output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply should be monitored [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas low inventory of tin ingots still supports tin prices. After the resumption of domestic maintenance enterprises, supply increases, but limited by the tightness of the ore end, the increase in supply is restricted. The improvement of downstream demand falls short of expectations. It is expected that there will be little change in the supply - demand situation, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the improvement of domestic demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation Tin Concentrate - In September, China's tin ore imports were 8,713.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. Imports from Myanmar were 3,136.76 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.9%. Although Burmese tin mines are gradually resuming production, the absolute import volume from Myanmar remains low, and the overall domestic import volume in September decreased month - on - month, so the domestic tin ore supply shortage continues. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged month - on - month [3] Supply - In September 2025, SMM estimated that China's refined tin production was about 10,620 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Some domestic enterprises carried out maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate further declined. Last week, according to SMM, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased by 20.63% week - on - week to 50.35%. The seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan has basically ended, but the recovery is only a phased repair, and the overall operating level is still at a historical low. In September, China imported 1,501 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin, a month - on - month increase of 6.78%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is fluctuating slightly higher, and tin imports remain in a loss state. Indonesia exported 4,844.21 tons of refined tin in September, ending three consecutive months of decline, 1.14% lower than the average level in the past four years. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the RKAB approval cycle from once every three years to once a year, requiring enterprises to resubmit relevant documents in October 2025, so there is great uncertainty in Indonesia's exports in the later period [4] Consumption - The peak season is not prosperous. The downstream demand side remains sluggish, with weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets and a significant decrease in orders. The year - on - year data of tinplate production continues to be weak, and the growth rate of tinplate exports is also declining. After the adjustment of tin prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises has weakened, and some merchants have made rigid purchases at low prices. However, the overall order situation has shown poor growth recently, and it was once relatively dull. According to merchants, the current shipment situation has improved, but the consumption side still needs further improvement [4] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons. The social inventory was 7,925 tons, ending three consecutive months of decline and increasing month - on - month, and the inventory was lower than the average level. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin closed at 281,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7,450 yuan, a decline of 2.58%. The basis of Yangtze River spot tin against the main contract fluctuated between premiums and discounts, and the basis was 0 last Friday [5] LME Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the weekly inventory of LME tin continued to increase by 325 tons to 27,350 tons, still lower than the average level in recent years. The LME spot discount widened, and the discount was - 142 US dollars last weekend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report reviews the copper price trends over the past 40 years and analyzes the impact of major events on copper prices, including economic growth, financial crises, central bank policies, geopolitical events, and trade frictions [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Key Events 2003 - 2008 - In October 2003, copper prices started to rise due to China's rapid economic growth, increased demand for industrial metals, supply - demand imbalance, and fund speculation [4]. - In 2006, global economic growth slowed, demand declined, and copper prices fluctuated significantly [4]. - In August 2007, affected by the US sub - prime mortgage crisis, copper prices fell [4]. - In August 2008, the deepening of the US sub - prime mortgage crisis and China's macro - control led to a sharp drop in copper prices [4]. - In October 2008, after Lehman's bankruptcy, copper prices tumbled, but then rebounded with the 700 - billion TARP and the launch of QE1 [4]. 2009 - 2014 - In March 2010, the end of QE1 hindered the upward trend of copper prices [5]. - In August 2010, the launch of QE2 (scale of $600 billion) pushed copper prices up [5]. - On August 5, 2011, S&P downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, causing copper prices to plummet [5]. - In June 2012, after the end of QE2, copper prices oscillated downward [5]. - In September 2012, the launch of QE3 made copper prices enter an oscillation phase [5]. - In December 2013, the reduction of monthly Treasury purchases and the end of QE3 in October 2014 led to a downward oscillation of copper prices [5]. 2015 - 2019 - In 2015, the global immigration and refugee crisis intensified [6]. - In 2016, European terrorist attacks and the UK's "Brexit" referendum made copper prices weak, but Trump's election in November 2016 caused a sharp rebound [6]. - In March 2018, the US imposed high tariffs on steel and aluminum products and Chinese goods, leading to trade frictions and affecting copper prices [6]. - In 2019, the global economic growth hit a ten - year low, and copper prices oscillated downward. In December, the Sino - US phase - one trade deal stabilized copper prices [6]. 2020 - 2023 - In 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic hit the global economy and copper prices hard. In March, the Fed's interest rate cut and "unlimited" quantitative easing led to a sharp rebound in copper prices due to inflation [7]. - In 2021, the deterioration of Russia - West relations caused significant oscillations in copper prices [7]. - In February 2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a sharp drop in copper prices. The Fed's 11 consecutive interest rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023 put pressure on copper prices [7]. 2024 - Present - In January 2024, the popularity of ChatGPT was positive for copper prices [8]. - In September 2024, the Fed's "preventive interest rate cut" due to economic slowdown was beneficial to copper prices [8]. - In November 2024, Trump's re - election made the market optimistic, and copper prices strengthened [8]. - On December 18, 2024, the Fed's interest rate cut completed the policy shift and pushed copper prices to a record high [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic soybean harvest is nearing completion with quality differentiation, and prices are stabilizing. High soybean imports continue, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Oil mill operating rates are rising, and soybean meal inventories are gradually decreasing. Demand remains strong. The soybean No.1 contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will oscillate and adjust. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No.2601 contract oscillated and rebounded. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4000 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the futures price shifted from a discount to a premium. - The soybean meal 01 contract stopped falling after oscillation, rebounding after hitting a low of 2863. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the 43 - protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 2900 yuan/ton to around 2870 yuan/ton. The basis oscillated, and the futures price maintained a slight premium [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - As of October 17, the domestic soybean harvest was more than half - completed, showing variety differentiation. The remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang rose to 90%, in Anhui to 70%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 70%. The soybean harvest in Heilongjiang was almost finished, with good quality, while in North China and other regions, continuous rain led to poor quality [4]. Import Situation - In September, domestic soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Sino - US negotiations may take place at the end of this month, with soybeans being one of the three major demands. The market expects China to purchase US soybeans to ease the situation. However, domestic imports are mainly from South America, and as the cost of Brazilian soybeans rises, purchases have slowed down. As of October 17, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.21 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline, and port soybean inventories were 9.884 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline, remaining at a high level in recent years [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are oscillating at a low level. The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. Currently, the US soybean harvest may be more than half - completed, but US soybean farmers have nowhere to sell their soybeans due to the government shutdown and受阻 aid. Sino - US negotiation expectations are boosting US soybeans [5]. Oil Mill Situation - As of October 17, the operating rate of oil mills was 59.59%, a significant increase. The soybean crushing volume was 2.166 million tons, returning to a high level. Oil mill soybean inventories reached 7.687 million tons, hitting a new high in recent years. Soybean meal production was 1.711 million tons, a significant increase. Oil mill soybean meal inventories were 976,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline, and the unexecuted soybean meal contracts were 5.007 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans has declined [5]. Feed Demand Situation - In the livestock farming sector, pig prices rebounded after a sharp decline, but farming is still in significant losses. As of October 17, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, with losses widening. Leading pig enterprises are also facing losses. Policy regulation is insufficient and has a lagging effect. Although the production capacity has been adjusted downward to some extent, the decline is not large, and the pig inventory is still growing due to inertia. - In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded and then fell again. Laying hen farming is back in the red, and the culling rate is insufficient. The inventory in September continued to grow and remained at a historical high. Feed demand is strong. As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory days of feed mills were 7.93 days, continuing to decline [6].