钢材产量增加，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20250105 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：钢材产量增加，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给：钢厂复产，供应增加。全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为188.22万吨（+3.83），热轧当周产量为304.51万吨（+10.97）。 （2） 需求：螺纹需求季节性偏弱，热卷需求回升。上周螺纹表观需求为200.44万吨（-2.24），热轧表观需求310.77万吨(+3.73）。 螺纹钢总库存422.03万吨(-12.22），社会库存282.66万吨(-11.53)，钢厂库存139.37万吨(-0.69); 热轧总库存370.96万吨(-6.26),社会库存288.64万吨(-8.06)，钢厂库存82.32万吨(+1.8)。 （4）基差：截至12月31日，螺纹主力合约基差178元/吨（+6），热轧主力合约基差0元/吨（+13）。 （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率上升至38.1%，钢厂利润有所修复; 铁水产量227.43万吨，环比增加0.85万吨。 高炉开工率78.94%，环比上升0.62%，高炉产能利用率85.26%， ...

芳烃市场周报： 走势分化，供需结构主导 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2026年1月5日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：PX外盘价格连续上行，期现货价格涨至较高位，基差随着期货端快速上涨连续走扩。中石化1月PX挂牌价格大幅上调至7500元/吨，12月 中石化PX结算价格7020元/吨。成本端主要影响因素仍是地缘消息与OPEC+产量政策，整体国际油价延续弱势，中长期过剩压力难改，短期成本 端支撑一般，地缘消息短期影响仍存。 • 供给：周内福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机，本周重启尚未满负荷运行，天津石化12月23日附近停机。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25 日停机检修，预计检修两个月。本周PX产量为74.14万吨，环比-0.52%。国内PX周均产能利用率88.4%，环比-0.46%。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维 持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA周均产能利用率至74.2%，环比+0.35%，同比-8.35%。本周PTA产能利用率窄 ...

油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 1.马棕基本面改善，产量下降，出口增加，12月上旬对印度出口增加，但库存仍有累库压力。SPPOMA显示12月1-20日马来西 亚棕榈油产量环比下滑7.15%，鲜果串单产下滑6.26%，出油率下降0.17%。AmSpec显示马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油出口量为 821442吨，环比减少0.87%。SGS预计马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油出口量为676674吨，环比增加43.6%。ITS数据显示马来西亚 12月1-20日棕榈油产品出口量为851,057吨，环比增加2.4%。马来西亚下调其1月毛棕榈油参考价，1月毛棕榈油参考价为每 吨3946.17林吉特，出口关税下调至9.5%。印尼总检察长于本周三表示，该国已核定 2026 年可向在林区非法作业的棕榈油 企业及采矿公司征收的潜在罚款总额，高达 85 亿美元，或将对棕榈油生产造成影响。 2.B50生柴增量较小。印尼已启动含50%棕榈油成分的生物柴油（B50）道路测试工作，预计整个测试周期可能为六至八个月。 B50生物柴油的强 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean sales are regionally differentiated, with accelerated sales in the Northeast and supplemented by state - reserve soybean auctions, and the price is firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory has declined, and there is import and auction activity. The oil mill's operating rate has slightly decreased, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, while the demand is strong. The soybean No.1 futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal futures will fluctuate and adjust [6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The main contract of soybean No.1 2605 rebounded significantly. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,120 yuan/ton to around 4,200 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No.1 strengthened in oscillation, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 rebounded but then fell back, continuing to oscillate. The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3,030 yuan/ton to around 3,060 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened in oscillation, and the futures discount widened [4] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales - The sales of domestic soybeans are regionally differentiated. As of December 26, the remaining soybean inventory in Heilongjiang accounted for 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 8%; in Anhui, it was 55%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; in Henan, it was 60%, unchanged; and in Shandong, it was 62%, a decrease of 2%. Recently, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans have been continuously auctioned. From December 23, about 600,000 tons have been put up for auction, and 480,000 tons have been sold, supplementing the market [4] 3.3 Soybean Import and Inventory - China's soybean procurement has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decline but still a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. It is reported that the purchase of US soybeans may also be delayed, and the port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of December 26, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.443 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline; the port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, with a continuous month - on - month decline [4] 3.4 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market continued to oscillate and adjust. The USDA's December supply - demand report made few adjustments, being neutral. The US is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases and the production increase pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [4] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The cost of Brazilian soybeans has dropped significantly, and the crushing margin has increased, but the operating rate of oil mills has not increased. As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 2.0644 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a significant decline. The soybean meal production was 1.631 million tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1676 million tons, a month - on - month increase, remaining at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 3.816 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills was 9.45 days, a continuous month - on - month increase and at a high level in recent years [5] 3.6 Feed Demand - In the livestock farming sector, the pig price rebounded, and the farming losses narrowed. As of December 26, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, also narrowing. The productive sow capacity has been continuously reduced. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, reflecting weak restocking sentiment, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price is low, and the poultry farming has been in continuous losses, with an increase in culling. The inventory decreased slightly again in November and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]

研 究 院 货 金 融 铜价巨幅震荡，风险大幅上升 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 院 本周外盘圣诞节假期，外盘交易清淡，市场波动加大。早盘贵金属炒作延续，带动有色金属集体走强。但市场情绪 有所转变，今日市场巨幅震荡，有色金属午后全线跳水。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 货 金 融 研 究 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报98860，现货报101290，沪铜午后大幅跳水，现货较期货升水2430点。今日现货基差贴 水-330点，现货成交极差。LME现货升水扩大至20美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦铜库 存小幅下降，沪铜库存上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价上升至52.5美元，国内现货需求好转。 铜价伦沪比持平于7.87，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅下降至1021点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘。 弘 业 期 今日伦铜大涨再创历史新高，在12570美元附近运行。沪铜早盘大涨再创历史新高，午后大幅跳水，小幅收涨，收 于98860.沪铜成交上升持仓下降，市场情绪分歧较大。现货方面，国内现货需求不佳， ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 沪铝高位震荡，氧化铝不宜抄底 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 期 货 金 融 研 究 院 本周外盘圣诞节假期，外盘交易清淡，市场波动加大。早盘贵金属炒作延续，带动有色金属集体走强。但市场 情绪有所转变，今日市场巨幅震荡，有色金属午后全线跳水。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报22570，现货报22490，现货较期货贴水-80点。本周沪铝上涨，现货贴水扩大至-240 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，氧化铝库存下降。上期所铝库存小幅上升，淡季高位现货需 求极差。LME库存上升，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-35美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率上涨，铝价沪伦比小 幅上升至7.55，内外盘走势大体一致。 弘 业 技术上看，今日美原油大涨，伦铝上涨，在2979美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨，收于22570，技术形态偏强。沪 铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪偏向乐观。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，现货成交较差。近期俄乌局势仍不明朗。 中国增量政策预期强烈，美联储降息前 ...

铅反弹动力不足，或继续震荡 基本面变化 加工费：2025年中国进口铅精矿11.0万吨实物量，同比上升15.8%，环比上升11.7%，进口量位于在近年来均值水平。国内冬季 铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张加剧，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步下滑。12月国内月度加工费200- 400元/吨，月度环比下降50元；进口月度加工费位-160--130美元/干吨，月度环比下降20美元。现货加工费方面，国内铅矿周 度加工费为250-350元/吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-150--120美元/干吨，周度环比持平。 供应：SMM显示11月全国电解铅产量小幅上升，环比增加0.49个百分点，较去年同期下降1.61个百分点；11月再生精铅产量环比 上升8.5%，同比去年增加10.13%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率67.35%，环比增长1.82%。河南、湖南地区开工率维持稳定， 部分湖南地区冶炼厂提及环保督察影响粗铅开工，但上周电解量尚可维持稳定生产，预计本周电解铅产量或小幅下滑。云南地 区某中大规模冶炼厂检修结束后上周继续提产，另一小规模冶炼厂生产恢复小幅提产。其他地区冶炼厂维持正常开华东地区此 前停产 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel products have limited contradictions, and steel prices will fluctuate in the short term. The profitability of steel mills has improved, iron - water production has slightly increased, and the production of rebar has continued to rise. However, demand is weak in the off - season. The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded, but its sustainability is questionable, and exports are expected to face pressure. The inventory of steel products is being depleted, but there is still pressure on hot - rolled coil inventory. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production and Supply - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace operating rate is 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The electric furnace operating rate is 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. [5] - **Output**: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills is 184.39 million tons (+2.71), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 293.54 million tons (+1.63). The iron - water output is 2.2658 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons. [5] 3.2 Demand - **Rebar**: The demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 202.68 million tons (-5.96). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 9.49 million tons. [5][49] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 307.04 million tons (+8.76). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 3.05 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled output was 86.48 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 million tons. [5][53] 3.3 Inventory - **Rebar**: The total inventory of rebar is 434.25 million tons (-18.29), the social inventory is 294.19 million tons (-18.81), and the steel mill inventory is 140.06 million tons (+0.52). [5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 377.22 million tons (-13.5), the social inventory is 296.7 million tons (-10.6), and the steel mill inventory is 80.52 million tons (-2.9). The inventory decline has increased, but it is still at a high level. [5] - **Overall**: The inventory of major steel products is being depleted. As of December 26, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.35 million tons, and the inventory of major steel products is 8.7279 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.9 million tons. [56] 3.4 Price - **Spot Price**: As of December 26, the average price of rebar in major national cities is 3316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the average price of hot - rolled coils in the country is 3288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. [9] - **Basis**: The basis has shrunk. The basis of the rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (-14). [5] 3.5 Other Market Information - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. [66] - **Automobile Market**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons. [70] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started area of houses was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed area of houses was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales amount of commercial housing was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 11.9%. [73]

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 84.21% (-2.41%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.76 tons (-1.79). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.32% (-1.36%), and the daily output of clean coal was 26.59 tons (-0.7). At the end of the year, the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, and the overall supply pressure remained [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.96 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.49 days (+0.06). Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 282.9 tons (+10.13), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1039.72 tons (+3.43), the steel mill inventory was 806.72 tons (+1.73), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 329 tons (+1.72), and the inventory of major ports was 299.5 tons (+13.33). Procurement sentiment weakened [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market declined slightly and remained at a low level, and the procurement sentiment in the off - season of demand was weak. The import pressure of Mongolian coal will decrease in the new year, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. With the increasing expectation of winter storage replenishment, the market will remain volatile [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 18 yuan/ton (-34), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 71.66% (-0.39%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 62.67 tons (-0.33), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.9 tons (+0.31). The overall supply changed little [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.01 days (+0.29). The rigid demand for coke weakened [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 92.24 tons (+1.14), the inventory of major ports was 178.2 tons (+2.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.2 tons (+8.47). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. - Summary: The supply of coke changed little. The demand structure was weak, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts for coke spot. However, with the increasing expectation of steel mill resumption in January and the support of winter storage replenishment, the futures market is expected to remain volatile at a low level [4]. Macro Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate cumulative year - on - year, weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no in - depth analysis is provided [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coking coal procurement prices, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, production, operating rate, inventory, and Mongolian coal customs clearance in relevant regions, but no in - depth analysis is provided [21][26][31] Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coke ex - factory prices, price adjustment schedules, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, profit, production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and inventory available days, but no in - depth analysis is provided [61][63][69]

市场情绪扰动，多晶硅高位震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251229 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格稳定。截至2025年12月26日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周持平。期货方面，本周主力合约低位震荡，截至12月26日主力合约收8880元/吨。 供应：新疆地区个别硅炉有增减情况，总量变化不大，1月大厂因环保问题存减产预期，视月底石河子天气情况而定， 重点关注新疆硅企开工变化；云南地区开工环比微降；四川地区开工持稳。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，12月预期产量环比持稳，对工业硅消耗稳定；有机硅开工基本稳定，下游有机硅单 体厂开工也持稳为主；铝合金企业开工率大体稳定。出口方面，11月工业硅出口5.49万吨，环比增加22%，同比增加 4%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月25日工业硅全国社会库存共计55.5万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供应端小幅下降，需求也有减量，下方成本支撑较强，且近期反内卷预期增强，预计短期内盘 面维持震荡，关注北方开工变 ...