研 究 院 货 金 基本面不佳，铜价上行乏力 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 融 研 究 院 美欧制造业PMI初值低于预期，美国消费者信心指数创历史新低，美联储12月降息预期上升至五成以上，市场情绪 明显好转。今日中日关系仍然紧张，市场关注俄乌系列谈判进展。日内美元上涨人民币小幅下跌，有色金属冲高回落， 市场情绪偏向谨慎。沪铜上涨，伦铜下跌，国内现货铜上涨。 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报86080，现货报86310，沪铜冲高回落，现货较期货升水230点。今日现货基差升水下降 至85点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周转为升水1美元，外盘现货需求有所好转。本周美铜库存继续上升创新高，伦铜库 存上升，沪铜库存稳定，现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨，洋山铜溢价上升至35美元，下跌后国内现货需求略 有好转。铜价伦沪比持平于8.01，国际铜较沪铜升水下降至501点，外盘比价高于内盘。 弘 业 技术上看，今日伦铜基本走平，在10778美元附近运行。沪铜冲高回落小幅上涨，收于86080，技术形态偏弱。沪铜 成交持仓均 ...

芳烃市场周报： 成本端弱势延续，调油仍有驱动 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年11月21日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，支撑偏弱，石脑油价格当前573美元，PXCFR价格832美元。中石化11月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至6800元/吨，10月 中石化PX结算价格6620元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.81万吨，环比上周-0.41%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比上周-0.36%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率79.38%，环 比-0.33%。上海石化60万吨装置检修重启，中化泉州PX装置故障，目前运行负荷50%。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机。PX工厂的生产 积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率74.29%，环比-1.89%，同比-6.74%。周内西南及华东装置检修，供应端持续缩量，本周期国内PTA整体产能利用 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The actual supply pressure may be less than last year. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China, and many are stocking up there. New - grain sales are fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2601 contract rebounded and was adjusted under pressure near 2190. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The basis of corn strengthened slightly, and the futures price was at a discount. The starch main 2601 contract was slightly adjusted, and the basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly [5]. Supply - side Situation - **New - grain sales and production**: The national corn output increased to 3 billion tons, 5 million tons higher than the same period last year. As of November 20, the total national grain - sales progress was 27%, 2% faster year - on - year. If the sales progress continues, the expectation of tight supply later will increase [5]. - **Port inventory**: As of November 14, the corn inventory in the northern ports continued to rise to 117 million tons, but was significantly lower than the same period last year. The inventory of domestic and foreign - trade corn in Guangdong Port decreased [6]. - **Grain substitution and imports**: The wheat - corn price difference remained above 200, without substitution advantages. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but there was a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig farming was in a large - scale loss, but the short - term inventory was difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg - chicken farming continued to lose money. However, feed demand was strong. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was good. Starch processing enterprises continued to make profits, with a relatively high operating rate. Alcohol processing enterprises were in a large - scale loss, but the operating rate rose again. The operating rates of downstream starch - sugar and paper - making enterprises were relatively stable [7]. External Market Situation The U.S. corn on the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The U.S. government ended the shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report slightly reduced the U.S. corn yield per unit and output, but the ending inventory increased slightly, with relatively large supply pressure. The global corn ending inventory decreased slightly, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture report was neutral [6].

浮法玻璃周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 浮法玻璃行情分析 ➢ 现货概况：本周浮法玻璃现货价格持续阴跌，区域分化明显。截至2025年11月20日，全国5mm浮法玻璃均价为1,106元/吨，周内下跌45元/吨，跌幅约3.9%。 沙河、湖北等主要产区价格走弱，产销率偏低，部分企业为去库采取"以价换量"策略。期货价格维持下跌趋势，主力合约逼近历史低位，市场情绪偏弱。供需基 本面承压，库存高位运行，行业利润持续收窄。本周玻璃期货总成交量显著放大，11月20日单日成交量达192.29万手，为近期峰值，显示市场交投活跃但方向 分歧加剧。持仓量维持高位，截至11月21日为194.37万手，反映空头力量持续积累。 ➢ 供给端：周内本溪一600吨/日产线冷修，国内在产日产量降至15.81万吨。此为本周唯一明确的产能退出，但整体供给仍处高位，未形成系统性减产。全国 周度产量111.02万吨，环比-0.34%，同比+0.08%。 ➢ 需求端：需求偏弱难改，截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大 ...

弘业纯碱周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 ➢ 供给方面：周内国内纯碱产量72.08吨，环比下降1.85万吨，跌幅2.50%。纯碱综合产能利用率82.68%，上周84.80%，环比下降2.12%。近期，部分企业设备问题，导致产 量下降。 纯碱行情研判 ➢ 市场概况：本周纯碱期货价格震荡偏弱，主力合约SA601收盘报1,170元/吨，周内小幅上涨0.09%，但远月合约持续贴水，市场情绪受制于供需宽松格局。现货端价格 重碱区域分化，重碱承压，稳中趋弱，库存延续去化但绝对水平仍处高位，行业利润承压，整体基本面未现根本性改善。短期来看，装置检修与库存下降提供一定支撑，但 远期新增产能释放预期未消，叠加玻璃行业持续低迷，重碱需求缺乏弹性，供需过剩格局未改。价格运行或延续"震荡偏弱、底部震荡"格局。 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 纯碱1-5月差 月差 01合约 05合约 ➢ 核心观点： ➢ 本周主力合约SA601周内微涨0.09%，期货价格主要由成本支撑（ ...

郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/19 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 受益于"双十一"促销前置，服装消费呈现企稳复苏态势。10月分，纺织品服装零售额达1471亿元， 同比增长6.3%，增速环比提升1.6个百分点，显著跑赢社会消费品零售总额增速。 新棉上市近半 核心观点 11月美农报告调增美国和中国产量预估，整体偏空；随着新棉加工量的增加，市场对新棉度棉花产量预 估有所上调；下游需求一般，产成品有累库迹象不过整体压力不大。籽棉收购进入尾声，新棉集中上市下供 给压力渐显，预计短期内郑棉或偏弱运行。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 11月美农偏空 11月美农未对美棉收获棉价进行调整，上调单产，最终使产量预估较9月份上调20万吨；上调中国棉花 产量预估22万吨；上调巴西棉花产量预估11万吨。最终，全球棉花产量预估较9月份上调52万吨，期末库存 预估较9月份上调60万吨，整体偏空。 纺服终端市场内外分化，国内消费表现良好 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国纺织品服装出口额为22.619亿美元，同比下降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and radiation pine inventory accumulation. The futures price continues to oscillate weakly. The supply side pressure has improved, but the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in tariffs and real estate. In the short term, logs will continue to oscillate weakly [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 760 yuan/cubic meter, both down from the previous period. In October 2025, the FOB price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [2] - Futures: As of the close on November 18, the main log contract 2601 closed at 785 yuan/cubic meter, continuing its weak oscillation [2] 2. Supply - New Zealand port shipments: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters [2] - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports: From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships or 30% week - on - week; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters or 48% week - on - week [2] - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week: From November 10 - 16, 2025, 10 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 ships or 38% week - on - week; the total arrival volume was about 315,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 214,000 cubic meters or 40% week - on - week [2] - Import volume: In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [2] 3. Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters [3] - High arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. After the arrival volume decreases in mid - November, inventory accumulation may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [3] 4. Demand - Domestic port log outbound volume: From November 7 - 14, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters; among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters [3] - The national log outbound volume rebounded, especially in Shandong. The core problem is that the port arrival pressure is large, while downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, leading to increased sales pressure on traders [3] 5. Recent News and Outlook Tariffs and Imports/Exports - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, increasing the risk of relying on a single source. The anti - involution policy has an indirect impact on the log market. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial for wood product exports, but the terminal market is currently sluggish [4] - The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood from December 7, 2025. Mexico has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. Since November 10, 2025, the suspension of US log imports has been lifted, but the arrival volume will be limited in the short term [4] - Russian freight costs have increased by up to 50%, and wood prices have risen by 11% - 14%. China's demand market is currently weak [4] Trading and Delivery - Since its listing one year ago, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has increased steadily. A total of 8 futures contracts and 164 option contracts have been listed, with a combined trading volume of about 7.87 million lots, a trading value of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots [5] - The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have expired, with a total delivery of 1,412 lots, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total value of about 104 million yuan [5] Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1,044.801 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5] - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side remains weak [5] 6. Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract weakened in the second - quarter off - season and rose significantly from July to August, mainly driven by shortages of some specifications, rising FOB prices, and pre - delivery stocking demand. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [6] - In September, the 2511 contract price rose and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand was average, and the futures price回调 after the holiday in October, reflecting market pessimism about downstream demand [6] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined. Currently, the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news. The log market will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]

货 金 聚酯板块系列专题报告 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 融 研 究 院 ——基础知识篇 弘 业 期 01丨PTA基础知识 02丨MEG基础知识 03丨下游聚酯基础知识 PTA基础知识 什么是PTA 弘 业 期 货 金 融 Ø PTA在2006年12月登陆我国期货市场，是国内上市的第一个化工期货品种，也是脉络复杂的化工产业链中相对简单的一个品种。 研 究 院 Ø PTA是精对苯二甲酸的英文简称，在常温下是白色粉状晶体，无毒、无味、易燃，是下游产品聚酯的原料之一，终端需求主要 是纺织服装、软饮料。 数据来源：公开资料、弘业金融研究院 PTA的仓储和运输 PTA主流的存储是用包装袋打包，囤放在华东主港码头，PTA的仓 储地分布在长江沿岸（江苏段）、杭州湾和福建厦门等主流消费 地。因PTA主流的工厂在大连和宁波地区，一般PTA是走海运到长 江转口内河水路运输，运输成本相对便宜，部分上下游距离较近 企业汽运也有。 弘 业 期 货 金 小于150公里，槽罐 PTA 车运输，约30吨 江浙地区中长途运输 采用运河船舶单船载 重500-700吨 船舶，5000吨- 15000吨 ...

美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解 2025年11月18日 （2）国内大豆进口回落，油厂大豆到港回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月14日，油厂大豆到港量为182万吨，环比回落；港口大豆库存为992.6万吨，环比回落，仍 在高位。 （3）美豆大涨创近年新高。美农11月供需报告调减美豆单产及总产，期末库存调减；南美产量未调整；全球期末 库存进一步调减。美农报告数据偏多，但盘面先跌后涨。叠加中美贸易协定。美豆有望继续走高。 （4）油厂开机率回升，豆粕库存再落。油厂榨利回落，因巴豆成本高。据钢联数据：截至11月14日，油厂开机率 为57.15%，环比回升；大豆压榨量为207.76万吨，环比回升；油厂大豆库存为747.71万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为 164.1万吨，环比回升；油厂豆粕库存为99.29万吨，环比微落；豆粕未执行合同为535.07万吨，环比回落。饲料厂 豆粕库存天数为8.23天，环比回升。 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Due to macro - negative factors and insufficient demand, the upward movement of Shanghai Aluminum faces obstacles. Although it may continue its short - term volatile upward trend, it may face pressure in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Related Content Market Environment - The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to drop below 50%, leading to rising risk aversion and weakening of risk assets. The market is generally weak, with the US dollar rising and the RMB falling, and non - ferrous metals mostly declining [3] Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725, and the spot price was 21,630, with a spot - to - futures premium of - 95 points. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose and then fell, with the spot premium remaining at - 20 yuan. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was stable, alumina inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly. LME inventory increased, and the LME spot premium widened to - 28 US dollars [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil tumbled, and LME Aluminum declined slightly, trading around 2,850 US dollars. Shanghai Aluminum fell, closing at 21,725, with a weakening technical pattern. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased, indicating significant market divergence [4] Market Sentiment and Outlook - After the hype of anti - involution subsided, alumina oscillated at a low level. With the easing of trade disputes, unclear situation in Russia - Ukraine, and rising energy prices, market sentiment was relatively strong. After the hype of gold and copper decreased, small metals were favored by funds. The short - term volatile upward trend of Shanghai Aluminum will continue, but it may face pressure in the medium term due to insufficient spot demand. The future focus is on whether Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate with copper prices and the spot demand situation [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | November 11 | 7.1224 | - 20 | - 16 | 7.54 | | November 12 | 7.1124 | - 10 | - 24 | 7.56 | | November 13 | 7.0971 | - 10 | - 28 | 7.58 | | November 14 | 7.0998 | - 20 | - 26 | 7.60 | | November 17 | 7.1058 | - 20 | - 28 | 7.65 | [5]