融 研 究 院 期 货 金 聚酯：现实累库，预期良好 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 融 研 究 院 PTA：终端全面放假，聚酯负荷下移，2月中旬将至年内低位区间，PTA处于季节性累库中。不过PTA行业负荷不高，累库幅度 不太悲观，3月检修预期提升，预期尚可。PTA呈现出近弱远强局面。近期主要关注宏观及成本的影响，节后下游或有补库， 整体不悲观； 期 货 金 MEG：节前乙二醇国内供应整体处于高位，需求季节性回落，累库预期明显；不过3月开始国内外检修量增加，供需或有弱改 善，乙二醇下探幅度较为有限； 弘 业 短纤：1月下旬开始，短纤负荷高位回落，由于库存良好，短纤加工费表现尚可。近期随着纱厂放假，需求减少背景下，短纤 面临季节性累库，绝对价格不悲观； 瓶片：因瓶片行业持续的自律性减产，工厂库存压力大大缓解。瓶片主要跟随成本波动，整体压力不大，预计继续强于短纤。 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 Ø PX短线震荡 研 究 院 相比较PTA ...

Report Title - Log Weekly Report: New Zealand's Shipment Resumes, Spot Market Closed Before the Festival [1] Report Date - February 11, 2026 [1] Report Author - Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the log market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with prices remaining stable; the 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains and may remain stable after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [4][9] - In the medium term, there is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9] Key Points by Section 1. Log Industry Data - Supply - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared with the previous period; the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase [4] - **Futures Price**: As of the close on February 10, the main log contract 2603 closed at 773.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a decline. The FOB price in New Zealand increased in February, raising the procurement cost of traders [4] - **Arrival Volume**: From February 9 - 15, 2026, the expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports is 8, an increase of 4 compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 100%; the total arrival volume is about 264,000 cubic meters, an increase of 117,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 80%. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the actual number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 4, a decrease of 3 compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 43%; the total arrival volume was about 147,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 71,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33% [4] - **Annual Import Volume**: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs decreased year - on - year in 2025 [4] 2. Log Industry Data - Inventory - **Inventory Quantity**: As of February 10, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.02 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the North American wood inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared with last week [6] - **Inventory Change Reason**: The total inventory in Jiangsu has been continuously decreasing. The main reasons are the tight supply of some specifications of port spot (6 - meter medium A and small A), the low arrival volume of radiata pine logs at Taicang Port, and the stockpiling behavior of some processing plants before the Spring Festival, resulting in a structural shortage at Taicang Port since the end of December, especially the shortage of 6 - meter radiata pine logs. In addition, driven by the price difference of 60 yuan/cubic meter between Shandong and Jiangsu, at least 6 New Zealand log ships diverted to Jiangsu, resulting in a significant decrease in the arrival volume at Rizhao Port and a low inventory of 5.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs [6] 3. Log Industry Data - Demand - **Outbound Volume**: From February 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 51,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 16.53% compared with last week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.68% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 12,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 18.87% compared with last week [6] - **Demand Characteristics**: The downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the log outbound volume decreases. Previously, the demand showed a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the prices generally increased due to the tight inventory and pre - festival stockpiling demand, while in Shandong, the prices remained stable due to the large number of ships. Overall, the short - term price increase of radiata pine logs in Rizhao is mainly due to concerns about the reduction of New Zealand supply and the tight inventory of some specifications caused by ship diversion, with little actual change [6] 4. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - **Import Structure**: China's import of radiata pine shows a significant characteristic of resource centralization, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing, and domestic demand is accelerating to focus on cost - effective timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source continues to accumulate [7] - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wood squares and coke is as high as 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market [7] - **Trade Agreement**: The Sino - US Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby accelerating log destocking. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [7] - **Customs Policy**: The General Administration of Customs has decided to revoke the announcement on suspending the import of US logs. In the short term, the total volume of US logs that can arrive at the port and complete customs clearance will still be limited [7] - **Natural Disaster**: Landslides occurred in the Tauranga area of New Zealand's North Island, which is expected to affect local logging operations and delay the shipment of some ships. Although the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal this week, the current arrival volume in China is still at a low level [7] - **Exchange Policy**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced the suspension of the delivery business of log designated truck - board delivery sites at several companies [7] 5. Log Industry Data - Strategy and Suggestions - **Historical Price Trend**: From July to early September 2025, affected by the shortage of some specifications of timber, the increase in FOB quotes, and the stockpiling demand caused by the approaching delivery of the 2509 contract, the futures market had a significant rebound, and the spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a significant differentiation trend of near - strong and far - weak before and after entering the delivery month [9] - **Short - term Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the demand shows a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage situation will gradually ease as the diverted ships arrive at the port, and the price increase momentum may slow down; in Shandong, the demand is stable, and Shandong processing plants are expected to have a concentrated holiday in early February. The 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains. In the short term, it may maintain a stable state after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [9] - **Medium - term Outlook**: There is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: "Supply and Demand Loose, Futures Market Weakly Operated - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20260210" [2] - **Report Author**: Zhou Guisheng [4] - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Currently, iron ore supply and demand are loose, and it will maintain a weak shock in the short - term. The overall supply has declined, the demand is weak due to poor steel mill profits, and the port and steel mill inventories have increased [5][6] Supply - Global iron ore shipments from February 2nd - 8th were 25.353 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.593 million tons. Australian shipments were 12.798 million tons, down 5.406 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 6.388 million tons, down 0.534 million tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 9.907 million tons, down 0.727 million tons [5] - China's 45 - port arrivals were 23.613 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.234 million tons [5] - As of February 6th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 456,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 58.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%. Mine concentrate inventory was 799,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,500 tons [5] - The shipping volume of Australian ore to China decreased significantly, and Brazilian ore shipments also declined. FMG and BHP shipments to China continued to fall, RT shipments to China dropped significantly, and VALE shipments decreased slightly [40][44][48] - The shipping price index decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly, remaining at a medium level [52][56] Demand - In the week of February 6th, the daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 million tons. Terminal demand was weak, steel mill profits were poor, and pig iron production remained relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mill restocking was basically over, and raw material procurement slowed down [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits increased slightly, blast furnace operation changed little, and pig iron production remained stable [65][71] Inventory - Imported ore inventory continued to rise this period, the number of ships at the port increased by 5 to 111. Port congestion increased, arrival volume continued to decline, port clearance volume continued to rise, and port inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing the upward space of ore prices. Steel mill inventory also continued to increase, and steel mill restocking was basically over as the Spring Festival approached [5] - The clearance volume continued to rise, port inventory continued to increase, Australian ore inventory continued to rise, Brazilian ore inventory decreased slightly, coarse powder inventory remained high, and lump ore inventory decreased slightly [80][84][94] Price and Spread - Spot prices decreased slightly, the spread between high - and medium - grade ores remained stable, the spread between medium - and low - grade ores increased slightly, the spread between PB powder and Mac powder remained stable, the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated at a low level, and the 05 basis decreased slightly [7][13][16][20] - As of February 9, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 863, a week - on - week decrease of 19, and the equivalent futures price was 807, a week - on - week decrease of 20; the spot price of PB powder was 763, a week - on - week decrease of 19, and the equivalent futures price was 810, a week - on - week decrease of 21; the spot price of Super Special powder was 650, a week - on - week decrease of 21, and the equivalent futures price was 849, a week - on - week decrease of 23; the high - medium grade spread was 100, and the medium - low grade spread was 113. The optimal deliverable product was 62.5 BHP Blend [29] - The rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased slightly, and the iron - ore - to - coke ratio decreased slightly [30] Strategy - The strategy is range - bound trading [6]

沪锡反弹乏力 或震荡运行 基本面情况 LME现货及库存：截止2月6日，LME锡周度库存环比减少10吨至7085吨，处于近五年偏高水平。LME锡现货贴水缩窄 ，上周末贴水157美元。 行情展望与策略 锡精矿：海关总署数据显示12月份国内锡矿进口量为1.76万吨，环比增长13.3%，同比增长40.2%；自缅甸进口锡矿 0.62万吨，环比减少13.7%，同比增长438.68%。缅甸进口环比下降，矿端恢复较为缓慢，国内锡矿进口量以维稳为主 ，短期国内锡矿供应紧张延续，国内锡矿加工费维持低位。截止2月9日当周，国内40%锡精矿加工费（云南）14000 元/吨，周环比持平。60%锡精矿加工费（广西）10000元/吨，周环比持平。 供应：SMM显示1月精炼锡产量15100吨，低于预期，环比减少5.33%，同比减少3.76%。冶炼厂原料库存普遍低于 30天，国内主流冶炼企业开工率维持高位，但部分企业因节假日因素已开始逐步降低负荷或安排检修。2月下旬至3月 初，冶炼厂复工节奏可能相对缓慢。一方面受春节假期惯性影响，另一方面原料供应偏紧的局面短期难以彻底扭转， 可能会制约节后产量的快速回升。12月中国精锡进口量为1548吨，同比 ...

豆一收阶段新高，豆粕疲弱 2026年2月10日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约再次走高触及4473，逼近4500点，再创近年新高。现货价格坚挺，富锦大豆市场价在4440元/吨 附近。豆一基差小幅走弱，盘面小幅贴水。 豆粕主力2605合约近期弱势震荡。豆粕现货价格回落，张家港43粕由3060元/吨跌至3020元/吨附近。基差震荡走弱， 盘面贴水较高。 （1）国产大豆销售放缓，年后余粮有限。据钢联：截至2月6日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比维持39%，环比持平；安徽大 豆余粮占比落至45%，环比降1%；河南大豆余粮占比落至49%，环比降1%；山东大豆余粮占比落至50%，环比降1%。东北 售粮仍快，华北等地偏慢，因粮质分化。2月3日国储大豆再拍6万吨，全部成交。食品企业年前备货基本完成。 （2）中国或再次加大进口美豆，港口大豆库存续落。近期中美领导人通话，中或再次加大进口美豆，当前美豆成 本仍高于南美大豆，后期或进储备；南美巴西大豆收割，上市临近。暂无最新进口大豆拍卖公告。油厂大豆到港量回落， 港口大豆库存持续回落。据钢联：截至2月6日，油厂大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday market is cautious, and the aluminum price continues to fluctuate. After a sharp decline in the short - term aluminum price, the spot market sentiment has warmed. The future trend of the aluminum price will follow the prices of gold, silver, and copper, and may continue the oscillating trend. If the copper price continues to fall, it may drive the aluminum price to weaken, and the risk during the Spring Festival is relatively high. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Geopolitical events such as limited progress in US - Iran negotiations, US tariff hikes on countries trading with Iran, and the victory of Sanae Takaichi in Japan's election have led to sharp fluctuations in market sentiment. The US dollar has fallen continuously, the RMB has reached a new high, and the capital market has fully recovered. Gold and silver have risen sharply today, driving all non - ferrous metals to rise, including copper, tin, and nickel, as well as Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum. [3] Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - Today, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum is reported at 23,540, and the spot price is 23,400. The spot price is at a premium of - 140 points compared to the futures price. This week, Shanghai aluminum first rose and then fell, and the spot discount has narrowed slightly to - 200 yuan. After the sharp decline last week, the spot trading improved. [3] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly, the alumina inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased significantly. The pre - holiday spot demand is poor. The LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME spot discount is - 22 US dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand. [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices has dropped to 7.61, with the internal and external markets showing generally the same trend. [3] Technical Analysis - Technically, today, US natural gas and US crude oil have continued to decline significantly, and LME aluminum has fallen, trading around 3,092 US dollars. Shanghai aluminum has risen today, closing at 23,540, with a technical form close to neutral. The trading volume of Shanghai aluminum has decreased while the open interest has increased, and the market sentiment is slightly bullish. [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | LME Aluminum - Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | February 3 | 6.9350 | - 220 | - 22 | 7.52 | | February 4 | 6.9411 | - 200 | - 23 | 7.65 | | February 5 | 6.9410 | - 170 | - 28 | 7.79 | | February 6 | 6.9298 | - 150 | - 26 | 7.70 | | February 9 | 6.9255 | - 200 | - 22 | 7.61 | [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment in the futures and financial markets has warmed up, and copper prices are fluctuating widely. The international situation is tense, which supports copper prices. However, after the confirmation of the successor to the Fed chair, policy uncertainty has increased, and the enthusiasm in the market has declined after the US copper broke through the previous high. The uncertainty in AI demand is relatively high, and there is pressure on the upside of copper prices. After a sharp drop at a high level, the sentiment in the spot market has warmed up, and it may continue to show a wide - range fluctuating trend in the short term [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Market Environment and Sentiment - The progress of the US - Iran negotiations is limited, the US has imposed additional tariffs on countries trading with Iran, and Japan's Takaichi Sanae won a major victory in the election, causing剧烈 fluctuations in market sentiment. The US dollar has been falling continuously, the RMB has reached a new high, and the capital market has fully recovered. Gold and silver prices have risen sharply today, driving up all non - ferrous metals, including copper, tin, and nickel [3] Copper Price and Market Performance - Today, LME copper rose and was trading around $13,070. SHFE copper soared and closed at 101,840. The trading volume and open interest of SHFE copper both decreased. Before the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious and trading was light. In the spot market, domestic spot demand has improved slightly, while LME copper spot demand is poor, but US copper buying continues. The external market ratio is stronger than the domestic market [4] Data Indicators - As of February 9, the RMB exchange rate was 6.9255, the spot premium was - 940 yuan/ton, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to $37.5/ton, the LME copper - spot - futures spread was - 71, and the ratio of SHFE copper's main contract to LME copper was 7.76. The domestic spot demand has improved after a sharp drop. The LME spot discount has narrowed to - 71 dollars, indicating insufficient external spot demand. This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise to a new high, the LME copper inventory increased, and the SHFE copper inventory increased. Before the holiday, the spot demand was poor [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of steel products are weak, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply side shows that steel mills are reducing production, while the demand side is weak due to the approaching festival. The cost - side support is weakening, and the steel market is expected to operate weakly and fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to the demand recovery after the festival [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Steel mills are reducing production. The weekly output of rebar at major steel mills nationwide is 1916800 tons (-81500 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3091600 tons (-500 tons). From a process perspective, the long - process rebar output decreased by 48100 tons, and the short - process output decreased by 33400 tons [4][34]. 3.2 Demand - As the festival approaches, demand is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1476400 tons (-287600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3055400 tons (-58700 tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 34800 tons, and that of hot - rolled coils is 25000 tons, with the trading volume of hot - rolled coils decreasing [4][43][47]. 3.3 Inventory - Rebar inventory accumulation has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has also accumulated. The total rebar inventory is 5195700 tons (+440400 tons), the social inventory is 3695200 tons (+395200 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 1536500 tons (+45200 tons). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 3592000 tons (+36200 tons), the social inventory is 2804500 tons (+21500 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 787500 tons (+15000 tons). The inventory of major steel products is 9401300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 491500 tons, and the billet inventory in Tangshan is 578000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49500 tons [6][50]. 3.4 Price - As of February 6, the national aggregated average price of rebar is 3306 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national aggregated average price of hot - rolled coils is 3284 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [10]. 3.5 Basis - As of February 6, the basis of the main rebar contract is 143 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract is - 1 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [5]. 3.6 Raw Materials - The cost - side support is weakening. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 29 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.7 Other Market Indicators - The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to 39.39%. The molten iron output is 2285800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%; the electric furnace operating rate is 57.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.33%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 48.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59%. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [5][29]. 3.8 Industry - related Data - In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106900 tons. In November, new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108000 tons. From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, the cumulative new housing construction area decreased by 20.4% year - on - year, the cumulative housing completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 13.4% year - on - year [60][64][68].

Report Title and Information - Report Title: "Pre - holiday Market Sluggish, Disk Oscillates and Adjusts - Double - coking Weekly Report 20260209" [1] - Author: Zhou Guisheng [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - **For Coking Coal**: Last week, the coking coal market had weak supply and demand, and market sentiment turned weak. With more coal mines shutting down near the Spring Festival, domestic supply tightened. Mongolian coal imports declined slightly. Although the daily average iron - water output on the demand side increased, it basically remained stable, and coke production remained stable. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Overall, pre - holiday market sentiment was weak, coking coal supply and demand were relatively balanced, and it would maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [3]. - **For Coke**: In terms of supply, most coke enterprises maintained normal production, coke production remained stable, and steel mill coke production increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption was still in the off - season, steel mill profits were poor, iron - water production remained stable, and with steel mill coke inventories at a medium - high level, they mainly replenished stocks as needed. Currently, coke supply and demand were relatively balanced, inventory levels remained high, and the disk was expected to follow and maintain low - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [4]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Views Coking Coal - **Supply**: The开工率 of 523 sample mines was 86.67% (-2.46%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.45 tons (-1.62). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 35.54% (-1.26%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 26.31 tons (-0.46). The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly last week, and overall supply continued to tighten [3]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (+0.6), the blast - furnace开工率 was 79.53% (+0.53%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.12 days (+0.09), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 16.51 days (+0.79). Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined [3]. - **Inventory**: The clean - coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 264.65 tons (-2.53), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1302.39 tons (+67.6), the steel mill inventory was 824.2 tons (+9.84), the clean - coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 334.46 tons (+22.89), and the inventory at major ports was 272.76 tons (-13.62). Downstream inventories were relatively high, and purchasing enthusiasm declined [3]. Coke - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke for coking plants was - 10 yuan/ton (+45), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.2% (+0.34%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.14 tons (+0.3), and the daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons (+0.23). The profit situation improved, but there was still price pressure [4]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (+0.6), the blast - furnace开工率 was 79.53% (+0.53%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.76 days (+0.22). Steel mills maintained on - demand procurement [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 82.74 tons (-1.65), the inventory at major ports was 201.1 tons (-3.04), and the steel mill inventory was 692.38 tons (+14.19). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 - large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no specific data analysis is provided [6][10][14][17] Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on Shanxi Jinzhong Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal purchase price, national mainstream coking coal spot price comparison, coking coal spread tracking, 523 sample coal mines' clean - coal daily output and开工率, 314 sample coal - washing plants' clean - coal daily output and capacity utilization rate, 247 steel mills' daily iron - water output and blast - furnace开工率, inventory data of various parties, and Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle numbers, but no specific data analysis is provided [20][25][30][35] Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report provides data on Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price, coke spot price adjustment schedule, coke spot price comparison, coke contract basis, coking enterprise ton - coke profit, independent coking enterprise coke daily output and capacity utilization rate, inventory data of various parties, and 247 steel mills' coke available days, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][60][62][65]

弘业纯碱周报 2026.2.6 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 纯碱行情研判 典型弱市结构，短期反弹空间受限。预计盘面震荡偏弱，区间1190—1230 元 / 吨，节前难有趋势性行情。 数据来源：Wind 隆众资讯 弘业能化工业品事业部 ➢ 市场概况：本周纯碱市场在节前情绪扰动后回归基本面逻辑，供强需弱格局未改，库存持续累积，市场缺乏持续性驱动。主力合约已进入"高库存+低需求+ 远月贴水"的典型弱市结构，短期反弹空间受限。主力合约SA2605于2月5日收盘报1209元/吨，跌1.65%，市场情绪由节前补库预期驱动转向供需宽松现实主导。 ➢ 供给方面：2月5日行业综合产能利用率为83.25%，虽较1月高点回落，但仍在高位运行。内蒙古博源银根100万吨/年新产能已释放，行业总产能突破4,000万 吨，叠加徐州丰成、湖南冷水江等企业计划复产，供应端无实质性收缩预期。 ➢ 需求方面：重碱需求受浮法玻璃（产能利用率75.57%）与光伏玻璃（66.31%）拖累，新增产线复产预期未兑现；轻碱虽受益于碳酸锂行业高开工率保持稳定， 但难以支撑整体市场。春节临近，下游企业陆续停工，节前补库 ...