Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment is optimistic, and copper prices are trending strongly. With the Fed's expected interest rate cut and positive domestic sentiment, the copper market is likely to be volatile and strong in the near term. However, there are issues such as high US copper inventories and insufficient medium - term demand, and poor spot demand for Shanghai copper during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Information Market Situation - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, increasing trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment, and sharp increases in gold, silver, and some non - ferrous metals including copper and nickel. The Fed's independence is questioned, and a rate cut is likely on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall [1] - Domestic major events are unfolding, with an optimistic market sentiment. Gold, silver, and most non - ferrous metals are rising. Shanghai copper, LME copper, and domestic spot copper are all up [1] Price and Basis - Shanghai copper closed at 79,780, and the spot price was 80,090, with an intraday high - then - low movement and a spot premium of 310 points. The spot basis premium rose to 235 points, but spot trading was poor [1] - The LME spot discount slightly widened to - 80 US dollars this week, indicating general foreign spot demand [1] Inventory - US copper and LME copper inventories continued to rise this week, while Shanghai copper inventory decreased slightly, suggesting general spot demand [1] Exchange Rate and Premium - The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Yangshan copper premium slightly increased to 56.5 US dollars, indicating a slight improvement in domestic spot demand [1] Ratio - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio dropped to 8.04, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper slightly increased to 213 points, with the foreign ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - LME copper rose slightly, trading around 9,935 US dollars. Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, with a strong technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased, showing an optimistic market sentiment [2] Supply - Demand Situation - US copper inventories are extremely high, with insufficient medium - term demand. Spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor during the off - season [2] 4. Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 26 | 7.1533 | 630 | 55 | | - 78 | 8.09 | | Aug 27 | 7.1523 | 440 | 55 | | - 85 | 8.08 | | Aug 28 | 7.1203 | 290 | 56.5 | | - 90 | 8.10 | | Aug 29 | 7.1223 | 60 | 56.5 | | - 83 | 8.06 | | Sep 1 | 7.1296 | 310 | 56.5 | | - 80 | 8.04 | [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, trade frictions, and inventory changes. Short - term aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate, and future volatility may increase [1][2] Directory Summaries Macroeconomic and Market Environment - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, intensifying trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment and surges in gold and silver prices. The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, with a high probability of a rate cut on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall. In China, major events are unfolding, and market sentiment is optimistic [1] Aluminum Market Conditions - Aluminum spot demand is insufficient, resulting in declines in Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and spot aluminum prices. This week, Shanghai aluminum fell, and the spot changed to a discount of - 30 yuan. After today's decline, spot trading improved slightly [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly this week, and LME spot inventories also rose, with a LME spot premium of 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.93 [1] Technical and Market Sentiment - Crude oil rose slightly today, while LME aluminum fell slightly, trading around $2612. Shanghai aluminum also fell slightly, closing at 20645, with a neutral technical pattern. Shanghai aluminum's trading volume increased while its open interest decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2] Market Trends and Influencing Factors - The anti - involution hype in the alumina market has significantly cooled down, and this round of speculation may end. Currently in the off - season, spot demand is insufficient. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a significant impact on the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (August 25 - August 29), the domestic oil and fat futures prices declined overall, with the palm oil main contract dropping 2.8% and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil main contracts falling over 1%. Spot prices were under pressure. Palm oil may experience shock and correction; soybean oil will have short - term shock adjustment; rapeseed oil will have short - term shock [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: According to MPOA, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03%. SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, the operating rate was 68.18%, and the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, and the production decreased with the reduction of rapeseed crushing volume [5] Demand - Palm oil: As of August 29, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 7,864 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,298 tons, or 41.28%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 168,800 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.37%. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 19,450 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27 tons [5] Inventory - Palm oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.8%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65% [5] 2. Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the FOB price of 24 - degree Malaysian palm oil was $1,087.5 per ton; the import CIF price was $1,112 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $17 per ton; the import cost price was 9,479 yuan per ton; the hedging profit was - 103 yuan per ton [6] 3. Overseas Oil and Fat Information - Malaysian palm oil: From August 1 - 25, the export volume increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The Malaysian government is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the 5% sales and service tax. The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff, but no timetable has been set. - Brazilian biodiesel: Due to the increase in the blending ratio, the biodiesel demand in Brazil in 2025 has been adjusted from 9.6 million cubic meters to 9.9 million cubic meters, and then slightly adjusted down to 9.8 million cubic meters, still an 8.9% increase compared with 2024. - Canadian rapeseed: As of the week of August 17, the export volume decreased by 64.34% week - on - week to 90,800 tons. From August 1 - 17, 2025, the export volume was 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared with the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [8][9] 4. Market Review Palm oil - The SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. The export in August increased month - on - month. The US agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff. Indian festival stocking and Indonesian biodiesel policy support demand. On Friday, the weakening of international oil and fat and crude oil prices dragged down domestic oils and fats, leading to shock and correction [11] Soybean oil - The US EPA's exemption decision for small refineries caused the US soybean oil price to fall. Domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, with high - level production and increasing inventory pressure. However, the start of the school year and the Mid - Autumn Festival are expected to relieve the inventory pressure. China has not purchased US soybeans yet, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations. Short - term shock adjustment is expected [11] Rapeseed oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to reduce imports. China is purchasing Australian new - crop rapeseed, which is expected to be shipped from November to December. Domestic rapeseed oil production is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, still under pressure. Attention should be paid to China - Canada relations, and short - term shock is expected [12] 5. Palm Oil Data Weekly Tracking Production and Inventory in Malaysia - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%, and the inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%, at a high level year - on - year [16] Exports in Malaysia - According to MPOB, the Malaysian palm oil export volume in July was 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%. SGS data showed that from August 1 - 20, the export volume was 667,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.1%. From August 1 - 25, ITS and Amspec data showed a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and 16.4% respectively [19] Domestic Palm Oil Import and Inventory - In July 2025, the palm oil import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.57%, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. As of August 29, the domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, at a high level within the year [25][26] Domestic Palm Oil Consumption - In July, the domestic palm oil consumption was 207,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,600 tons [27] Import Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 24 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan per ton [22] 6. Soybean Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. The commercial inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. In July, the export volume was 34,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons [31][32][33] 7. Rapeseed Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons, at a relatively low level year - on - year. The inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons, at a high level year - on - year [36]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively high domestic inventories. Lead prices are in a dilemma and may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand during the back - to - school season and the production dynamics of secondary lead [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In June 2025, China's lead ore imports were 118,026 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.54%, ending a two - month decline and reaching a five - year high. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate supply is tightening, and processing fees are falling. In August, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 600 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 70 - - 50 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decline of 15 US dollars [2]. Supply - In July, the national electrolytic lead output was 323,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.43%; the secondary lead output was 253,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93% and a year - on - year increase of 3.13%. The supply of primary lead was relatively stable last week, with little change in the operating rate. Some refineries in North China will conduct maintenance at the end of August, and the crude lead department of enterprises in Central China is expected to shut down at the end of the third quarter. The supply of lead concentrate raw materials and maintenance plans will limit production capacity release. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead decreased slightly. The production rhythm in Anhui remained unchanged, while production in other regions was slightly adjusted due to raw material supply. The shortage of waste battery raw materials has not been alleviated, and secondary lead enterprises are suffering large losses, with limited resumption of production and new project increments. Recently, the internal and external price ratio has fluctuated, and lead ingot imports have maintained a small loss [3]. Consumption - The operating rate of large enterprises remains at 70% - 75%. The operating rate of large battery factories in Anhui is stable at 70% - 75%, with a finished product inventory of 25 - 30 days, which has slightly decreased compared with July but is still at a historical high. The operating rate of small and medium - sized enterprises is generally 65% - 75%, with an inventory of 22 - 25 days. Some enterprises promote sales to reduce inventory, but terminal digestion is slow. Overall, the traditional consumption peak season has not appeared, the demand for electric bicycle batteries is weak, enterprises produce based on orders, the upward movement of wholesale prices is blocked, the inventory of dealers has reached a historical high, and terminal consumption is sluggish [3]. Spot - As of the week ending August 15, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month basis declined. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a discount of - 43.34 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 15, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 7,275 tons to 261,100 tons, continuing to decline from a high level and currently at an absolute high level in the past five years; the weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 2,510 tons to 64,800 tons. As of August 18, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations decreased slightly to 65,800 tons but was at a relatively high level in the past three years [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a USDA monthly supply and demand data tracking for August 2025, focusing on cotton, soybeans, and corn, prepared by the Agricultural Products Division of Holly Futures [1] Group 2: Cotton Supply and Demand Global - Beginning stocks are 75.05 million bales, production is 116.62 million bales, imports are 43.58 million bales, consumption is 117.99 million bales, exports are 43.59 million bales, and ending stocks are 73.91 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.73 million bales, production by 1.8 million bales, imports by 1.1 million bales, consumption by 0.13 million bales, exports by 1.1 million bales, and ending stocks by 3.41 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 3.04 million bales, production decreased by 1.48 million bales, imports increased by 2.07 million bales, consumption increased by 1.42 million bales, exports increased by 1.7 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.54 million bales [3] China - Beginning stocks are 35.79 million bales, production is 31.5 million bales, imports are 5.3 million bales, consumption is 37.5 million bales, exports are 0.08 million bales, and ending stocks are 35.02 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.05 million bales, production increased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.5 million bales, consumption increased by 1 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 2.05 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 0.925 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports increased by 0.15 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.775 million bales [3] United States - Beginning stocks are 4 million bales, production is 13.21 million bales, imports are 0.01 million bales, consumption is 1.7 million bales, exports are 12 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.6 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.1 million bales, production decreased by 1.39 million bales, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports decreased by 0.5 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 1 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.85 million bales, production decreased by 1.199 million bales, imports increased by 0.002 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.063 million bales, exports increased by 0.1 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 0.4 million bales [3] India - Beginning stocks are 9.85 million bales, production is 23.5 million bales, imports are 2.9 million bales, consumption is 25 million bales, exports are 1 million bales, and ending stocks are 10.25 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.1 million bales, production remained unchanged, imports decreased by 0.1 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks increased by 0.5 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.55 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.05 million bales, consumption increased by 0.5 million bales, exports decreased by 0.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.4 million bales [3] Group 3: Soybean Supply and Demand - The soybean data is bullish. US soybean production and ending stocks are decreased due to the decrease in beginning stocks. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are slightly decreased [4] Global - Beginning stocks are 125.19 million tons, production is 426.39 million tons, imports are 185.86 million tons, crushing is 367.71 million tons, consumption is 425.1 million tons, exports are 187.44 million tons, and ending stocks are 124.9 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.06%, production decreased by 0.30%, imports decreased by 0.11%, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.02%, exports decreased by 0.10%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.93%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 8.57%, production increased by 0.57%, imports increased by 4.22%, crushing increased by 3.68%, consumption increased by 3.51%, exports increased by 3.13%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] United States - Beginning stocks are 8.985 million tons, production is 116.815 million tons, imports are 0.544 million tons, crushing is 69.127 million tons, consumption is 72.052 million tons, exports are 46.402 million tons, and ending stocks are 7.89 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 5.67%, production decreased by 0.98%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.10%, exports decreased by 2.30%, and ending stocks decreased by 6.52%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 3.58%, production decreased by 1.70%, imports decreased by 20.00%, crushing increased by 4.53%, consumption increased by 4.69%, exports decreased by 9.07%, and ending stocks decreased by 12.19% [4] China - Beginning stocks are 43.48 million tons, production is 21 million tons, imports are 112 million tons, crushing is 108 million tons, consumption is 133 million tons, exports are 0.1 million tons, and ending stocks are 43.38 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.39%, production increased by 1.69%, imports increased by 5.16%, crushing increased by 4.85%, consumption increased by 4.81%, exports increased by 25.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 36.111 million tons, production is 175 million tons, imports are 0.15 million tons, crushing is 58 million tons, consumption is 62.3 million tons, exports are 112 million tons, and ending stocks are 36.961 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 21.34%, production increased by 3.55%, imports decreased by 72.73%, crushing increased by 1.75%, consumption increased by 1.96%, exports increased by 9.70%, and ending stocks increased by 2.35% [4] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 25.247 million tons, production is 48.5 million tons, imports are 7.2 million tons, crushing is 43 million tons, consumption is 50.5 million tons, exports are 5.8 million tons, and ending stocks are 24.647 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 2.02%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports increased by 16.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 1.20%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 4.99%, production decreased by 4.72%, imports increased by 5.88%, crushing increased by 0.94%, consumption increased by 0.20%, exports decreased by 4.92%, and ending stocks decreased by 2.38% [4] Paraguay - Beginning stocks are 0.431 million tons, production is 11 million tons, imports are 0.02 million tons, crushing is 3.1 million tons, consumption is 3.3 million tons, exports are 7.7 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.451 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 50.70%, production increased by 7.84%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption increased by 0.76%, exports increased by 13.24%, and ending stocks increased by 4.64% [4] Group 4: Corn Supply and Demand - The corn data is bearish. US corn production and ending stocks are significantly increased. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are increased [5] Global - Beginning stocks are 283.11 million tons, production is 1288.58 million tons, imports are 192.16 million tons, consumption is 1289.15 million tons, exports are 200.86 million tons, and ending stocks are 282.54 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.38%, production increased by 1.97%, imports increased by 2.34%, consumption increased by 1.05%, exports increased by 2.58%, and ending stocks increased by 3.84%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 10.33%, production increased by 5.10%, imports increased by 4.66%, consumption increased by 2.43%, exports increased by 3.73%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.20% [5] United States - Beginning stocks are 33.152 million tons, production is 425.257 million tons, imports are 0.635 million tons, consumption is 332.247 million tons, exports are 73.028 million tons, and ending stocks are 53.769 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 2.61%, production increased by 6.60%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.71%, exports increased by 7.48%, and ending stocks increased by 27.51%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 25.99%, production increased by 12.61%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 4.39%, exports increased by 1.95%, and ending stocks increased by 62.19% [5] China - Beginning stocks are 194.183 million tons, production is 295 million tons, imports are 10 million tons, consumption is 321 million tons, exports are 0.02 million tons, and ending stocks are 178.163 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.51%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.56%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.09%, production increased by 0.03%, imports increased by 150.00%, consumption increased by 1.58%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 8.25% [5] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 7.988 million tons, production is 131 million tons, imports are 1.6 million tons, consumption is 94 million tons, exports are 43 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.588 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 5.89%, production decreased by 0.76%, imports increased by 6.67%, consumption increased by 3.30%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 55.08% [5] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 2.783 million tons, production is 53 million tons, imports are 0.005 million tons, consumption is 15.6 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.188 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 12.31%, production increased by 6.00%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.63%, exports increased by 7.25%, and ending stocks increased by 14.55% [5] Ukraine - Beginning stocks are 0.762 million tons, production is 32 million tons, imports are 0.01 million tons, consumption is 6.325 million tons, exports are 25.5 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.947 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 145.16%, production increased by 4.92%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 1.61%, exports increased by 6.25%, and ending stocks increased by 58.33%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 18.69%, production increased by 19.40%, imports decreased by 50.00%, consumption increased by 10.96%, exports increased by 21.43%, and ending stocks increased by 24.28% [5]

Report Title - Polyethylene: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is transitioning to the peak season [1] Core View - Although supply is at a high level, the pressure is expected to ease as more units undergo maintenance. Downstream demand continues to rise, purchasing power strengthens, social inventory turns from increasing to decreasing, and demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, boosting market sentiment. The overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still weaker than the same period in previous years. In the short term, as more units undergo maintenance, supply is expected to decline, inventory will continue to be depleted, and demand will transition to the peak season, resulting in an improvement in the supply - demand margin. The polyethylene market is expected to trend strongly overall [3] Content Summary Price - This week, domestic polyethylene spot prices showed mixed trends, with a weekly fluctuation range of 8 - 64 yuan/ton. Supported by positive macro factors and stable overall supply, LDPE and LLDPE prices remained firm. HDPE prices slightly declined due to increased supply of some products and poor sales. Specifically, HDPE film was reported at 7969 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week; LDPE film was at 9583 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton; LLDPE film was at 7466 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [3] Supply - This week, the domestic polyethylene supply changed little, with a production volume of 66.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 86.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The production this period involved the restart of units at Yanchang Zhongmei, Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical, and the new maintenance of units at Guoneng Xinjiang and Fushun Petrochemical. Next period, market supply is expected to decrease due to new planned maintenance at Fushun Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Lianyungang Petrochemical, etc., and the non - restart of previously maintained units [3] Downstream Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of the polyethylene downstream industry was 39.47%, a slight increase of 0.35% from last week, but it is expected to drop by 0.57% next week and is still weaker than the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 13.82%, a recovery of 0.75% from the previous period. In the shed film market, order follow - up was slow, and although corporate operations improved, they were still at a low level year - on - year. For mulch film, due to some enterprises receiving tender orders, the production level slightly increased, driving the improvement of the industry's operating rate. The operating rate of the PE packaging film industry was 49.07%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. Currently, only some rigid - demand orders are delivered periodically, short - term contracts for daily chemical packaging are insufficiently supplemented, industrial packaging consumption is weak, terminal inventory - building willingness is low, and the number of order production days has decreased, resulting in insufficient support for the operating rate and a slight month - on - month decline [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that due to high macro - uncertainty, copper prices continue to fluctuate. The international situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has high uncertainty, leading to cautious market sentiment. Technically, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, with short - term possible continuation of the trend and poor medium - term fundamentals. The supply - demand situation shows high inventories and insufficient demand, resulting in weak spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The US - Russia talks on Saturday morning had no clear progress. The US dollar fell and the euro rose on Friday, with most non - ferrous metals dropping at night, led by aluminum. European and Ukrainian leaders went to the US, increasing international situation uncertainty. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose slightly during the day, and all non - ferrous metals declined. Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper fell, while domestic spot copper rose [1]. - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 78,950, and the spot price was 79,430. The intraday high of Shanghai copper was followed by a decline, with a spot premium of 480 points. The spot basis premium rose to 225 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount widened to -$94 this week, indicating weak external spot demand [1]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the inventories of US copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper all increased, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to $48.5, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio remained at 8.13, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 207 points, with the external price - to - ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - LME copper oscillated and fell slightly, trading around $9,744. Shanghai copper rose first and then fell, closing at 78,950, with a neutral technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Market Indicators | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 12 | 7.1856 | 250 | 47 | | - 83 | 8.13 | | Aug 13 | 7.1816 | 180 | 47 | | - 87 | 8.10 | | Aug 14 | 7.1822 | 180 | 47 | | - 79 | 8.07 | | Aug 15 | 7.1890 | 210 | 48.5 | | - 89 | 8.10 | | Aug 18 | 7.1837 | 480 | 48.5 | | - 94 | 8.13 | [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as good July sales of Chinese cars and new - energy vehicles, possible Fed rate cuts, and the confirmed meeting time between US and Russian presidents, leading to most non - ferrous metals rising. However, the People's Bank of China's significant net currency withdrawal and the decline in the month - on - month auto production and sales in July have added some market complexity. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a large impact on the aluminum market, and the short - term may see fluctuations with increased volatility [1]. - Currently in the off - season, there is insufficient spot demand. The hype around anti - involution in the alumina market has significantly subsided, and this round of speculation may end [2]. 3) Summary by Related Information Market Performance - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE) closed at 20,700 today, and the spot price was 20,630, with a spot discount of - 70 points. The spot discount this week remained flat at - 40 yuan, and spot trading improved. London Aluminum (LME) declined, and domestic spot aluminum also fell. The LME spot inventory decreased this week, with a spot discount of - 2 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio dropped to 7.93, indicating the domestic market's weaker performance compared to the overseas market [1]. - Technically, crude oil tumbled today, LME aluminum oscillated and slightly declined, trading around 2,614 dollars. SHFE aluminum rose slightly, closing at 20,700, with improved technical patterns. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE aluminum increased, and market sentiment improved slightly [2]. Inventory Situation - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose, while the LME spot inventory decreased [1]. Other Information - The month - on - month auto production and sales in July decreased, but the year - on - year growth continued to be above 13%. The RMB appreciated and the US dollar depreciated during the day, and the market sentiment was strong, leading to all non - ferrous metals rising [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as strong July auto and new - energy vehicle sales in China, possible 3 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the confirmation of the meeting time between US and Russian presidents. However, the central bank's significant net currency withdrawal and the month - on - month decline in auto production and sales in July also impact the market. Overall, copper prices are in a volatile state [1]. - Technically, the short - term may be volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are not good. There is an oversupply of copper in the US and weak spot demand during the off - season in China [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Most non - ferrous metals rose due to improved market sentiment. Shanghai copper, international copper, and domestic spot copper rose, while London copper fell. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 79,020, and the spot price was 79,190, with a spot premium of 170 points. The spot basis premium rose slightly to 150 points, but spot trading was poor. LME spot discount widened to - 70 dollars, indicating weak foreign spot demand [1]. - The inventory of US copper and London copper increased significantly this week, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased slightly, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased slightly to 43.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper remained at 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper rose to 306 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - London copper fluctuated slightly downward, trading around 9,755 dollars. Shanghai copper rose sharply, closing at 79,020, with an improved technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both increased, showing strong market sentiment [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (Dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 5 | 7.1889 | 250 | 45.5 | - 53 | 8.09 | | Aug 6 | 7.1850 | 180 | 45.5 | - 67 | 8.15 | | Aug 7 | 7.1810 | 180 | 45.5 | - 63 | 8.10 | | Aug 8 | 7.1894 | 210 | 45.5 | - 66 | 8.09 | | Aug 11 | 7.1862 | 170 | 43.5 | - 70 | 8.09 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]