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镍与不锈钢日评20250919:降息落地,上行驱动不足-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, on September 18, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with decreased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel dropped 0.45%. The spot market had average trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Considering the supply - demand situation and inventory changes, with the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - For stainless steel, on September 18, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with increased trading volume and open interest; the spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 840 - 890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 81,612 hands (- 9,122), and the open interest was 55,044 hands (- 3,782). LME nickel prices also declined, with the 3 - month nickel official price at 15,280 dollars (- 27 dollars), and the closing price of the electronic trading session at 15,335 dollars [2]. - The price differences between different nickel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) showed certain changes. For example, the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 830 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production schedules in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary material production schedules decreased; stainless - steel plants' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [2]. 3.1.3 Global Supply - Demand Situation - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in July 2025, global refined nickel production was 320,100 tons, consumption was 284,000 tons, with a supply surplus of 36,000 tons. From January to July, global refined nickel production was 2,237,600 tons, consumption was 1,993,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 244,300 tons. In July, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and from January to July, it was 2,326,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the stainless - steel main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a trading volume of 175,834 hands (+ 5,708) and an open interest of 132,228 hands (+ 4,478). The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened [2]. - The price differences between different stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) also changed. For example, the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in September [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 596,300 tons (- 15,400 tons) [2]. 3.2.3 Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - For stainless steel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2].
镍与不锈钢日评:降息落地,上行驱动不足-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:13
镍与不锈钢日评20250919:降息落地,上行驱动不足 | 2025-09-17 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-11 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 120940.00 | 121790.00 | 120050.00 | -850.00 | 期货近月合约 | ~~~ | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ~~~ | 121110.00 | 121990.00 | 120620.00 | -880.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | W | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 122180.00 | -840.00 | 121340.00 | 120790.00 | | | | | | W | 期货连三合约 | 121480.00 | 122370.00 | 120950.00 | -890.00 | 收盘价 | > | 120940.00 | 12179 ...
尿素早评:做多机会或逐步到来-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: expected supply - side renovation of old facilities (about 20% of urea facilities are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and expected improvement in demand - side exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1670 yuan/ton on September 18, down 11 yuan or 0.65% from September 17; UR05 closed at 1734 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.52%; UR09 closed at 1755 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%; Shanxi was 1530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan was 1660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 84 yuan/ton on September 18, down 1 yuan from September 17. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].
宏源期货日刊-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:07
Group 1: Price Information - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/18 was $599.38 per ton, down 1.56% from the previous value [1] - Price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/17 was $851.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/9/19 was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/18 was 2,280 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Pit - mouth price (tax - included brown coal) of coal (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/9/18 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,268 yuan per ton, down 0.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,282 yuan per ton, down 0.16% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on 2025/9/18 was 4,370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic on 2025/9/18 was 4,345 yuan per ton, down 0.80% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/9/18 was 56 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on 2025/9/18 was 77 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/18 was 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/18 was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/18 was 6,465 yuan per ton, down 0.08% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/18 was 5,820 yuan per ton, down 0.51% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (comprehensive) on 2025/9/18 was 61.32%, down 0.88% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/18 was 63.52%, down 1.48% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/18 was 58.14%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/9/18 was 89.00%, up 0.22% from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/9/18 was 67.55%, up 2.01% from the previous value [1] Group 3: Cash - flow and Gross - profit Situation - Cash - flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $126.19 per ton, down 0.69% from the previous value [1] - Cash - flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $139.15 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/9/18 was - 1,485.02 yuan per ton, down 19.74% from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/18 was 382.30 yuan per ton, down 25.66 yuan from the previous value [1]
镍与不锈钢日评:降息落地上行驱动不足-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 13:16
Group 1: Overall Information - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Driving Force Insufficient" [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel near - month contract was 121,790 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 90,734 lots, down 13,858 lots; the open interest was 58,829 lots, down 7,709 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,250 dollars/ton, down 165 dollars from the previous day; the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 6,290 lots, up 1,202 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai nickel near - month and continuous - first contracts was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the LME nickel 0 - 3 months was - 182.88 dollars/ton [2] - The basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 990 yuan/ton; the basis of LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price was - 195 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,167 tons, down 26 tons; the LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 214,602 tons, down 220,866 tons; the total LME nickel inventory was 228,468 tons, down 7,602 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. The nickel ore price remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production scheduling in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron destocking. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased. With the Fed's rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest selling short on rallies [2] Group 3: Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 170,126 lots, down 60,650 lots; the open interest was 127,750 lots, down 3,036 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month and continuous - first contracts was 20 yuan/ton; the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 95,265 tons, down 480 tons; last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 96,600 tons, down 15,400 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated at a low level, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. In terms of inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased. On the supply side, stainless - steel production scheduling increased in September. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. In terms of cost, the high - nickel pig iron price and high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest waiting and seeing [2] Group 4: Company News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's 2025 Q2 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea operated by MCC Group's Ramu Nickel Cobalt had a production of 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal (up 22.87% year - on - year) and 787 tons of cobalt metal in this quarter. The MHP nickel sales volume was 7,846 tons (up 27.93% year - on - year), and the cobalt sales volume was 719 tons. The cash cost of producing MHP and removing by - products in this quarter was 2.68 dollars/pound, equivalent to 5,908 dollars/ton [2]
宏源期货农产品早报-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 13:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The ethylene market is volatile, with supply being tight and prices fluctuating. Investment in related products should be cautious, and attention should be paid to market trends and changes in supply and demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Volume Data**: There are price and volume data for various products such as polyester, ethylene glycol, and coal, including different regions and time points, like on September 17 - 18, 2025. For example, there are data on prices like -1511.08, 6300.00, 2287.50 etc., and percentage changes such as (6.17), 9.00, 2.00 etc. [1] - **Market Situation**: The market shows a complex situation. The ethylene market is tight, and the polyester market has supply - demand differences. The market is affected by factors such as production inspections, inventory, and trading volume. For instance, the supply of some products is weak, and the market is in a state of shock [2] - **Investment Advice**: Investment in the ethylene - related market should be cautious. Investors need to pay attention to market information, supply - demand relationships, and price fluctuations [2]
镍与不锈钢日评:降息落地,上行驱动不足-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 11:54
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Drive Insufficient [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai nickel futures' closing prices declined, with the active contract's closing price at 121,790 yuan/ton (-820), trading volume at 90,734 lots (-13,858), and open interest at 58,829 lots (-7,709) [2] - LME 3 - month nickel's closing price was $15,250 (-165), trading volume was 6,290 lots ( + 1,202), and the price ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures was 7.89 (-0.05) [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai stainless steel futures' closing prices were mostly down, with the active contract's closing price at 12,840 yuan/ton (-12), trading volume at 170,126 lots (-60,650), and open interest at 127,750 lots (-3,036) [2] Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 122,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 990 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 915 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 26 tons to 26,167 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 2,034 tons to 228,468 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory decreased by 480 tons to 95,265 tons [2] Group 3: Industry News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's Q2 2025 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea produced 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal ( + 22.87% YoY) and 787 tons of cobalt metal, with MHP nickel sales volume at 7,846 tons ( + 27.93% YoY) and cobalt sales volume at 719 tons [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Nickel Market - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased; nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, September's domestic production schedule increased, Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased; September's domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded [2] - **Demand**: Ternary production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2] - **Outlook**: After the Fed's rate cut, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] Stainless Steel Market - **Supply**: September's stainless steel production schedule increased [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2] - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2] - **Outlook**: Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For nickel, the strategy is to short on rallies [2] - For stainless steel, the suggestion is to wait and see [2]
宏源期货日刊-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 10:54
Group 1: Price Changes - The price of crude oil on September 18, 2025, was $608.88 per ton, up $0.66 or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on September 18, 2025, was unchanged at $851 per ton [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on September 18, 2025, was $6300 per ton, up $50 or 0.8% [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of coal was $4289 per ton on September 17, 2025, down 0.21% [1] - The price of ethylene glycol in the domestic market on September 17, 2025, was $4380 per ton, unchanged [1] Group 2: Production and Operation - The operating rate of polyester factories was 88.88% on September 1, 2025, and that of textile machines in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 65.54% on September 17, 2025 [1] - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 65% on September 17, 2025, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was 8.14% [1] Group 3: Other Indicators - The price index of polyester was $8550 per ton on September 17, 2025, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber was $640 per ton on September 1, 2025, unchanged [1] - The external price of oil - based ethylene glycol was $124.91 per ton on September 16, 2025, down $6.17 from the previous price [1]
宏源期货PX、PTA、PR早评-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 06:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a fluctuating manner. The fundamentals of PX are weak, with supply increasing and demand not meeting expectations. PTA's fundamentals remain unchanged, with cost support and some plant maintenance plans, but downstream demand is weak. PR's downstream demand is average, with sufficient market supply and cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $64.05 per barrel, down 0.73%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.95 per barrel, down 0.76%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608.88 per ton, up 0.66%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $680.50 per ton, down 0.58%. The spot price of paraxylene PX CFR China Main Port was $836 per ton, up 0.20% [1]. - **PTA**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closed at 4,712 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,628 yuan per ton, up 0.22% [1]. - **PX**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closed at 6,772 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The spot price of paraxylene in the domestic market was 6,656 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closed at 5,868 yuan per ton, up 0.38%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,850 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on September 17, 2025 [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 42.42%, up 1.47 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 52.32%, down 12.75 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 102.68%, down 18.06 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.2 million - ton PTA device stopped on September 5 [2]. PX Summary - **Important Information**: Geopolitical factors and the Fed's strong expectation of interest - rate cuts support oil prices. The overnight rise of raw materials expanded, and the morning PX negotiation level strengthened, but the trading atmosphere declined in the late session. The domestic PX operating load is high, but many PTA devices have announced maintenance plans, increasing the game between cost and supply - demand [2]. - **Long - Short Logic**: The fundamentals are weak. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,772 yuan per ton, down 0.24%. The supply has increased due to the delay of Fujia Dahua's maintenance and the restart of some devices. Although it is the peak season for downstream polyester, new orders and loads are not as expected. Naphtha prices are strong, and PXN is expected to run weakly [2]. PTA Summary - **Long - Short Logic**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,712 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. Cost support and some PTA factory maintenance plans are beneficial, but downstream polyester filament sales are only 42%. A 4.5 million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. New maintenance plans from October to November have limited impact on the current market. The overall industry chain shows that the start - up of polyester raw materials has increased significantly, while the start - up of polyester and downstream has recovered slowly. The demand side has not actively destocked, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand has weakened [2]. PR Summary - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,830 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate, the supply - side quotation of bottle - chips is stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously [2]. - **Long - Short Logic**: The downstream demand is average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,868 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, the market supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious [2].
碳酸锂日评20250918:低位震荡-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 06:14
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both weak, with little inventory pressure upstream. As the resumption of lithium mines is approaching actively, the expectation of supply contraction is weakening. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream restocking point. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 73,500 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 343,863 lots (- 156,404), and the open interest was 294,624 lots (- 5,813) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 39,234 tons, an increase of 410 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was - 490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Commodity Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 70,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.3 Market News - Pantera Lithium's shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of selling its subsidiary Daytona Lithium Pty Ltd to Energy Exploration Technologies (EnergyX). EnergyX is advancing its Lonestar Lithium project in New Markover, and this acquisition will further expand its resource reserves in the Smackover area, where the lithium resource volume may exceed 4 million tons [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the trial production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 39,234 tons (+ 410 tons), the social inventory decreased, the inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [1].