Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut has decreased, and a one - year economic and trade agreement has been reached between China and the US. The liquidity in the US inter - bank market is tight, the US credit crisis has eased, and the debt of major global countries has decreased, which may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela are difficult to resolve, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries around the world, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 921.02 yuan/gram, with changes compared to previous days and weeks. The trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads also had corresponding data [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The trading volume was 54,322.00, and the open interest was 257,838.00, with changes compared to previous periods [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 213.00 yuan/ten - gram, and there were details about trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: The trading volume was 1,294,530.00, and the open interest was 360,214.00, with corresponding changes [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4143.20, and data on trading volume, open interest, and inventory were provided [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.25, and there were details about trading volume, open interest, and inventory [1] - **International Gold**: The London Gold Spot price was 17.35 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare Gold ETFs also had corresponding data [1] - **International Silver**: The London Silver Spot price was 48.96 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of relevant ETFs were provided [1] 2. Price Ratios - The price ratios of Shanghai Gold to Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Gold Spot to Shanghai Silver Spot, New York Gold Futures to New York Silver Futures, and London Gold Spot to London Silver Spot were given, with their respective changes [1] 3. Other Commodity Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE Crude Oil was 458.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent Oil was - 1.38 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX Crude Oil was 60.88 dollars/barrel [1] - **Copper**: Shanghai Copper Futures was 87,010.00 yuan/ton, and LME Copper Spot was 10,891.50 dollars/ton [1] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Shanghai Rebar was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian Iron Ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] 4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield, TIPS yield, and 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate had corresponding data [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.9334, and the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan, euro to the Chinese yuan were provided [1] 5. Stock Index Markets - Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index had their closing prices and changes [1] 6. Important Information - The US government shutdown is approaching the historical record, and the longer it lasts, the more cautious the Fed will be. Three Fed officials opposed the October interest rate cut, and Waller supports a December cut. There is a rare divergence within the Fed, and "Old Bond King" Gross short - sold US Treasuries [1] 7. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract at high prices. For London Gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai Gold, pay attention to the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London Silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai Silver, pay attention to the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251104：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/11/4 指标 | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 9,140.00 | 0.44% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 元/吨 | | 160.00 | -40.00 | | 元/千克 N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 56,065.00 | -0.61% | | 基差 元/吨 | | -5,065.00 | 345.00 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 | | ...

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规律经营机构。已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的容观、公正,但文中的观点、特论和难议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 人市需要按2 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据采源:SMM W 娱与不锈钢日评20251103:成本支撑较弱,不锈钢空单持有 | 2025-10-31 2025-10-30 交易日期(日) 2025-10-24 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 收盘价 120290.00 120660.00 121860.00 -370.00 ~ n | | | | | | 期货连一合约 收盘价 120590.00 120980.00 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream and improved macro - conditions. The cancellation of warehouse receipts drives up the price. However, production remains at a high level, and after the price increase, downstream inventory replenishment slows down. The inflection point of power demand may be approaching, so it is expected that the lithium price has room for a callback. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Data**: On October 31, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate futures was 79,300 yuan/ton, down 2,540 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 915,245 lots (+86,128), and the open interest was 510,440 lots (-44,231) [3]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,550 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 78,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic) had different price changes, with an increase of 400 yuan in some types [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed different trends in different sectors. The registered warehouse receipts were 27,621 tons (-20), and the total inventory was 127,358 tons, down 3,008 tons compared to before [3]. 3.2 Industry Trends - **Global Energy Storage**: From January to June 2025, the global energy - storage cell shipments reached 246.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 115.2%. The top ten enterprises were all from China, and the domestic enterprises' share of energy - storage lithium - battery shipments in the world exceeded 94%. According to the current expansion progress, the overseas production capacity will be put into operation intensively from 2026 - 2028 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. The price of spodumene powder remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained stable [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased. In October, the production schedule of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol has continued its weak and volatile trend recently. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 3, 2025, compared to October 30, MA01 decreased by 28 yuan/ton (-1.27%) to 2180 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 24 yuan/ton (-1.05%) to 2260 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.15%) to 2240 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei where prices remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 32.50 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 2157.50 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%) to 2235 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Upstream coal and natural gas prices remained stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 220.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 1100 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of East China MTO increased by 114.50 yuan/ton (18.17%) to - 515.57 yuan/ton, while the profit of acetic acid decreased by 45.25 yuan/ton (-9.66%) to 423 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 was oversold at the end of the session, opening at 2202 yuan/ton, closing at 2180 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 826,939 lots and an open interest of 1,350,958, showing increasing volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: For far - month arriving methanol cargoes from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation was at - 4 - 1.9%, with buyers' bids at - 4%. Some far - month arriving cargoes from a Middle - East country were reported to have been traded at - 2% and - 3%. Attention should be paid to the actual operating load of methanol plants in a Middle - East country [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic and Outlook - **Current Situation**: Methanol has weakened recently. In terms of valuation, the price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. In terms of driving factors, the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive [1]. - **Outlook**: The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November. Future driving factors may come from possible supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it is necessary to wait before going long on methanol [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines, with a view score of 0 [1].

黑色金属月报-铁矿 供应增量释放遇阻需求韧性 矿价区间震荡 2025年11月3日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999; TEL：010-82292661 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 供应增量释放遇阻需求韧性 矿价区间震荡 10月铁矿石价格震荡偏强，主流现货价格月度涨幅在2-25元不等。具体来看，卡粉（-5），PB粉（+25），BRBF （+25），金布巴 （+4），超特粉（+2），mac（+27）。块矿方面，PB块（+4） ，纽曼块（+4），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+4）。普氏62%指数方面， 截至10月31日，普氏指数收于107.4美元，月环比回升3.5美元，目前按汇率7.11折算人民币大致在888元左右。仓单方面，截止10月31 日，最优交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在800元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为827元/吨左右，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比累库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量15272.93万吨，环比累库163万吨，较 年初去库338万吨,比去年同期库存低736万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, steel prices were slightly repaired at a low level boosted by the warming of macro - expectations. However, industrial contradictions have not been completely eliminated. Although the structural contradictions have slightly improved, the supply - demand gap in the steel sector remains at a relatively high level. The total inventory shows a seasonal decline. At the end of the month, under the background of production restrictions in Hebei, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, weakening the driving force for price rebound. From a valuation perspective, the upside space of rebar is under pressure near the off - peak electricity cost. In November, the driving force is limited, and it is expected that the volatile pattern will be difficult to change. [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Price and Production Data**: In October, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of the end of October, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3200 yuan, unchanged from the end of September; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan, up 20 yuan/ton from the end of September. On October 30, the total output of the five major steel products increased by 9.97 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 18.49 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 22.62 tons. The apparent demand was 916.4 tons, an increase of 23.69 tons month - on - month. [5] - **Profit Data**: As of October 31, in the long - process spot end, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3196.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 3.5 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 33.5 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace end, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China was about 3331 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3189 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 171 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 29 yuan. [5] - **Scrap Steel Data**: As of October 30, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 33.6%, up 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51.2 tons, down 0.15 tons month - on - month. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 25 tons/day, up 0.04 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16.7 tons, up 0.18 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.1%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 47.3 tons, down 1.26 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 2.6%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 469.7 tons, down 3.7 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.8%. [6] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - **Steel Production**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [14] - **PMI Index**: In October 2025, the PMI was 49%. Compared with September 2025, multiple sub - indicators showed declines, such as the production index decreased by 2.2, the new order index decreased by 0.9, etc. [19] - **Investment Data**: From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 21.28% year - on - year. [23] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed floor area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. [26] 3.3 Product - Specific Data - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 212.59 tons (+5.52 tons), including 183.08 tons of long - process output (+3.94 tons) and 29.51 tons of short - process output (+1.58 tons). The factory inventory was 171.71 tons (-12.92 tons), the social inventory was 430.81 tons (-6.67 tons), and the total inventory was 602.52 tons (-19.59 tons). [55][72] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 323.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 tons; the apparent demand was 331.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.31 tons, the social inventory decreased by 8.64 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 8.33 tons. [75] - **Export**: As of October 24, the FOB export price in China was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 32.3 US dollars (-4.8 US dollars). The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 342.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109.98 tons, a growth rate of 37.5%. [86]

2025年11月3日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中美元首会晤基本符合预期，未对市场带来额外提 | | | | | 振；美联储宣布降息25个基点，但鲍威尔发言偏鹰，市场 | | | | | 乐观情绪有所消散，有色有所承压。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋松有所收紧。与国产矿相比，进口矿贵超2,000 | | | | | 元/金属吨，炼厂抢购国产矿情绪持续，带动多地加工费持 | 国内锌市维持供强需弱格局，价 | | | | 续下滑，加之企业看跌后续加工费，港口矿贸易商报价意 | 格继续上行动力略显不足，锌价 | | | | 愿较低，进口锌精矿报价亦持续下滑，预计后续加工费易 | 或有所承压，前期多头注意利润 | | | | 跌难涨。上周澳大利亚地区的Endeavor矿山发生爆炸，事 | 保护；伦锌来看，LME宣布对锌 | | | | 故后矿山已暂停作业。 | 大额头存进行限制，近远月深 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward drivers are insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking. Future possible drivers include the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%); UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.06%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Hebei, it was 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%); in Northeast China, it remained at 1610 yuan/ton (0.00%); in Jiangsu, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Henan, it remained at 1580 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 remained at - 78 yuan/ton [1]. c. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The position was 264103 lots [1]. d. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. A further price drop may reduce upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Potential future drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota allocations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%; UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices mostly decreased. For example, Shandong dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1590 yuan/ton (-0.63%), Hebei dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1610 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1580 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at -78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 264103 hands [1].