Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251103: China-US One-Year Economic and Trade Agreement Supports Aluminum Prices [1] Report Core View - The China-US one-year economic and trade agreement supports aluminum prices. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectation turns hawkish, the US dollar index strengthens, and liquidity tightens, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is decreasing, and the domestic scrap aluminum supply-demand expectation is tight, which may make the prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy cautiously bullish. The production loss of alumina leads to a reduction in the oversupply, and the downward space of alumina price may be gradually limited [2] Industry Data Summary Alumina - **Price**: The national average alumina price was 2,872.95 yuan/ton on October 27, 2,872.04 yuan/ton on October 30, and 2,881.03 yuan/ton on October 31. Prices in different regions also showed certain fluctuations [2] - **Futures**: The closing price of alumina futures was 2,816 yuan/ton on October 27, 2,793 yuan/ton on October 30, and 2,829 yuan/ton on October 31. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory also changed [2] - **Spread**: The basis, near-month - continuous one, continuous one - continuous two, etc. of alumina showed different degrees of change [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price**: The SMM A00 aluminum - semi average price was 21,280 yuan/ton on October 27, 21,200 yuan/ton on October 30, and 21,160 yuan/ton on October 31. Prices in different regions also fluctuated [2] - **Futures**: The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures was 21,300 yuan/ton on October 27, 21,245 yuan/ton on October 30, and 21,360 yuan/ton on October 31. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory also changed [2] - **Spread**: The basis, near - month - continuous one, continuous one - continuous two, etc. of electrolytic aluminum showed different degrees of change [2] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) - average price was 22,300 yuan/ton on October 27, 22,250 yuan/ton on October 30, and 22,400 yuan/ton on October 31. Prices in different regions and types also fluctuated [2] - **Futures**: The futures closing price (active contract) of cast aluminum alloy was 20,705 yuan/ton on October 27, 20,805 yuan/ton on October 30, and 20,715 yuan/ton on October 31. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory also changed [2] - **Spread**: The basis, near - month - continuous one, continuous one - continuous two, etc. of aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change [2] LME Aluminum - **Price**: The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10,930 on October 27, 10,891.5 on October 31, with a change of - 38.50 [2] - **Spread**: The 0 - 3 month and 3 - 15 month contract spreads of LME aluminum futures also changed [2] Trading Strategy Alumina - Temporarily wait and see, pay attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,700 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 (View score: 0) [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Hold the previous long positions cautiously, pay attention to the support level around 20,300 - 20,600 and the resistance level around 21,500 - 22,000 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,600 - 2,700 and the resistance level around 2,900 - 3,000 for LME aluminum (View score: 1) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Hold the previous long positions cautiously, or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on dips, pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000 (View score: 1) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put some pressure on the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of RMB 9,300 - 9,500 per ton. For polysilicon, due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which may also suppress the upside space of the market [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at RMB 9,300 per ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at RMB 9,700 per ton; the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.60% to RMB 9,100 per ton [1]. - **Production Situation**: In October 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output increased by 31,400 tons month - on - month, a 7.5% increase, and decreased by 17,600 tons year - on - year, a 4% decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative industrial silicon output was 3.4699 million tons, a 16.6% year - on - year decrease. In November, the supply variable of industrial silicon mainly lies in Sichuan and Yunnan regions. The total output of industrial silicon in these two regions is expected to decrease by more than 50%, and there is a small increase expectation in the north. The national total supply is expected to decrease to below 400,000 tons, a 12% decrease [1]. - **Regional Operating Rates**: In Yunnan, from October 24th to October 30th, the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises was 6,265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will remain in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20. In Xinjiang, the weekly output of sample silicon factories was 40,690 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 84%, a slight increase from the previous week [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put some pressure on the upper limit of the market. Pay attention to the pressure level of RMB 9,300 - 9,500 per ton. The trading strategy is to operate within the range [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at RMB 51 per kilogram; the price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.10% to RMB 52.25 per kilogram; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at RMB 50.50 per kilogram; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at RMB 50.5 per kilogram; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.66% to RMB 56,410 per ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline. On the demand side, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have a strong resistance to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which may suppress the upside space of the market. For previous long positions, pay attention to profit protection. The trading strategy is to lightly go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price has faced downward pressure due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and better refinery profits. The zinc price lacks sustained upward momentum due to weak demand and hawkish remarks from the Fed [1]. - For lead, it is recommended to hold previous short positions. For zinc, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.23%. The Shanghai lead basis was -165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai lead contracts showed various changes. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 220,300 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,645 tons, also unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. For secondary lead, supply has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume operations. The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises have decent operations, with demand showing an increase [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.04%. The Shanghai zinc basis was -145 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai zinc contracts changed. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.97% to 67,774 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows fluctuations, with the polyester market around 488 - 493. The market is weak, and investors are cautious. The supply - demand relationship in the industry is complex, with supply being relatively weak and demand also showing a narrow range of changes. There are factors such as macro - economic conditions and raw material prices affecting the market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The market is in a state of shock. For example, the polyester market has fluctuations, and the price range is around 488 - 493. The market is relatively weak, and trading is not active [2] Supply - Demand Relationship - Supply is relatively weak, with factors like low production volume and limited supply of raw materials. Demand also shows a narrow - range change, and the overall supply - demand gap is relatively small [2] Price Changes - Prices are in a state of shock and adjustment. For example, the price of ethylene glycol has certain fluctuations, and the price range is relatively narrow [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are cautious. The market is affected by macro - economic data and other factors, and investors are waiting and observing [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Current sentiment in the urea market has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics [1] - Urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the current situation of strong supply and weak demand [1] - Short - term upward drivers for urea are insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressures [1] - Suggest holding previously sold out - of - the - money put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1627 yuan/ton on October 30, down 17 yuan (-1.03%) from October 29 [1] - UR05: 1705 yuan/ton on October 30, down 12 yuan (-0.70%) from October 29 [1] - UR09: 1735 yuan/ton on October 30, down 12 yuan (-0.69%) from October 29 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1600 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Shanxi: 1470 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Henan: 1580 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Hebei: 1620 yuan/ton on October 30, down 10 yuan (-0.61%) from October 29 [1] - Northeast: 1610 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Jiangsu: 1590 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 105 yuan/ton on October 30, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 78 yuan/ton on October 30, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1030 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2900 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2500 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong: 5084 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Melamine prices in Jiangsu: 5150 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2601: opening price 1648 yuan/ton, highest price 1648 yuan/ton, lowest price 1618 yuan/ton, closing price 1627 yuan/ton, settlement price 1632 yuan/ton, and持仓量 270109 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Hold previously sold out - of - the - money put options [1] Potential Drivers to Watch - Old device renovation expectations in the chemical industry on the supply side [1] - New export quota issuance [1]

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 短期或进入震荡降波行情 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行情回顾：本周油价反弹受阻，开始调整，在上周五及近期的日报中， 我们提示前期多单可以考虑止盈。 观点总结：我们认为油价矛盾有限，短期或进入震荡降波行情。地缘方 面，制裁带来的预期影响已经被基本消化，月间价差开始回落；宏观方 面事件落地，近期市场重要的宏观事件有二：一是美联储主席鲍威尔调 控降息预期，二是中美元首会晤结束，双方对于此前部分贸易措施将暂 停实施，冲突预期得到缓和。基本面方面，本周末 OPEC+将继续举行 会议讨论增产，若是延续小幅增产，则影响有限，若超预期大幅增产， 则盘面短期面临抛售压力，油价或继续试探 55 美元/桶支撑。但宏观风 险可控的情况下，我们认为若有短期抛售压力，仍然是逢低做多机会。 风险提示：俄乌局势、贸易冲突的不确定性。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@ ...

Group 1: Core Views - The market demand and supply situation is complex, with the decline in some prices and the increase in some quantities. For example, the price of some products shows a downward trend, and the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are affected by multiple factors such as investment, construction, and news [2]. - The market is in a state of shock, and the future trend is affected by many factors, including macro - environment, industry policies, and enterprise operations. Enterprises need to make corresponding adjustments according to market changes [2]. Group 2: Data Summary - There are price data such as - 1529.09, 6150.00, 2212.50, etc., and percentage data such as - 19.91%, 10.13%, 18.85%, etc. These data involve various products and market indicators, including the prices of polyester, ethylene glycol, and related chemical products [1]. - The price of ethylene glycol is currently in the range of 490 - 492 dollars per ton, and the price of some other products has also changed, with a certain degree of decline or increase [2]. Group 3: Market Situation - The downstream demand has declined, and the market is not very active. The trading volume and price of some products have decreased, and the market sentiment is relatively weak [2]. - The investment and construction in the industry continue, but there are also some problems, such as insufficient demand and unstable market prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that PX will fluctuate narrowly, PTA will fluctuate weakly, and PR will fluctuate weakly (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On October 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $60.57 per barrel, up 0.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.00 per barrel, up 0.12% [1] - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha: CFR Japan was $572.63 per ton on October 30, 2025, up 0.26%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade): FOB South Korea was $670.00 per ton, down 1.69%; the spot price of p - xylene PX: CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4,570 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer market on October 29, 2025, was $611.00 per ton, up 1.66% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6,588 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 0.96%; the settlement price was 6,632 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The PXN spread was $244.38 per ton, down 1.01%; the PX - MX spread was $147.00 per ton, up 7.69% [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5,666 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 1.05%; the settlement price was 5,708 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,720 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was 5,720 yuan per ton, down 0.35%. Other downstream CCFEI price indices remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the PX in the polyester industry chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged at 86.21%, 80.09%, 89.28%, and 73.31% respectively on October 30, 2025. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, up 0.22% [1] Production and Sales - On October 30, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 42.67%, down 6.20%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 42.82%, down 0.75%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.79%, up 8.73% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the company will start the new one and shut down the old one [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight, due to positive prospects of China - US meetings and EIA inventory reports, oil prices rebounded, but after the end of the China - US meetings, the cost support for PX weakened. Recently, some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance or will be under maintenance, but the PX supply remains stable. Overseas devices are also operating stably. The call for anti - involution in the industry has increased, but it has limited impact on PX supply and demand in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industrial meeting has no unplanned impact on the operating rate. In the morning, the decline in oil prices weakened the cost support for PTA, but the market hoped for active production cuts on the supply side. In the afternoon, the expectation of production cuts on the supply side was not fulfilled, and the PTA spot price followed the futures price down [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,700 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The market atmosphere was weak, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the demand side has limited support for prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, and the situation has improved. The cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the production remains at a high level. After the price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. One should be cautious about the price rising and then falling. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, the closing price of the near - month contract was 81,840 yuan/ton (+100), the closing price of the consecutive - one contract was 83,260 yuan/ton (+520), the closing price of the consecutive - two contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), the closing price of the consecutive - three contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), and the closing price was 83,400 yuan/ton (+500) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 829,117 lots (+169,696), and the open interest of the active contract was 532,871 lots (+25,989) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,641 tons (+116) [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,420 yuan/ton (-420), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 260 yuan/ton (-80), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 3,400 yuan/ton (+350) [3]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 944 US dollars/ton (+16), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,380 yuan/ton (+50), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,180 yuan/ton (+50) [3]. - **Lithium Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton (+850), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 77,800 yuan/ton (+850), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) was 75,380 yuan/ton (+300) [3]. - **Other Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 106,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 103,850 yuan/ton (0), and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,805 yuan/ton (+210) [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. In October, the production of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,641 tons (+116), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises decreased, while the inventory of other sectors increased [3]. News - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene powder ore ended. The auction target was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene powder ore from Wodgma, and the actual transaction price was 7,058 yuan/ton (including tax) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The strategy is to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient upward drive in the short term, and the main factors to be concerned about are the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: The closing price on October 30 was 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.03% from October 29 [1]. - UR05: The closing price on October 30 was 1705 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.70% from October 29 [1]. - UR09: The closing price on October 30 was 1735 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.69% from October 29 [1]. Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on October 30 was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Henan: The price on October 30 was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Hebei: The price on October 30 was 1620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61% from October 29 [1]. - Northeast: The price on October 30 was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR: The value on October 30 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on October 30 was - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1]. Upstream Cost - Anthracite price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 5084 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1618 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1627 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 270109 hands [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1].