Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a reasonable valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: supply - side expectation of old device renovation (old devices over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 17, UR01 closed at 1,681 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.30% from September 16; UR05 closed at 1,734 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%; UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 17 compared to September 16, while the price in Shanxi dropped 10 yuan/ton or 0.65% to 1,530 yuan/ton [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 84 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong dropped 20 yuan/ton or 0.68% to 2,930 yuan/ton, while the price in Henan remained unchanged at 2,520 yuan/ton. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,083 yuan/ton and 5,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,685 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,687 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,681 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol spot price is in a low - level oscillation. Due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland, the upside space is limited. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient because of high absolute port inventory levels and weak restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming traditional downstream peak season, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 17, 2025, MA01 closed at 2376 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 remained unchanged at 2397 yuan/ton; MA09 closed at 2371 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton, while prices in Guangdong decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) to 2275 yuan/ton, and prices in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) to 2120 yuan/ton. Prices in some regions such as Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the price of Bohai Rim Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.99%) to 512.5 yuan/ton, the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.32%) to 575 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (2.16%) to 592.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (- 1.42%) to 436.3 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 362 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of East China MTO increased by 44.5 yuan/ton (7.10%) to - 582.57 yuan/ton, the profit of acetic acid increased by 24.15 yuan/ton (5.03%) to 504.04 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE increased by 93.6 yuan/ton (31.46%) to 391.12 yuan/ton [1]. d) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 was weakly oscillating, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2376 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 387,439 lots, and the open interest was 836,608 lots, with shrinking volume and increasing positions [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 2.6 million tons are under maintenance, and a small amount of Chinese goods are exported to Southeast Asia [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise but not fall. However, it has not had a substantial impact on refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a slight decline. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not evident. The supply is tightened in the short - term, and lead prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space [1]. - For zinc, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production profit and enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and the output shows an increasing trend. The demand has improved, and the zinc ingot export window may open. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure support the zinc price. After the interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled, Shanghai zinc is expected to strengthen in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 16,950 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of the lead futures main contract is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The lead basis is - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 lead premium is - 46.43 dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - 15 lead premium is - 70.50 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract is 44,958 lots, down 18.23%. The open interest is 42,195 lots, down 6.43%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.07, down 12.61% [1]. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is 225,350 tons with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 2,005 tons, down 0.07% [1]. News - The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made phased breakthroughs. The main project of the concentrator has entered the steel - structure construction stage. The project is expected to invest 762 million yuan this year and strive to complete the main systems construction by the end of December and achieve trial production in the first mining area [1]. - On September 16, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 49.61 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 277 lots to 165,625 lots [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The zinc basis is - 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is 24.36 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract is 96,254 lots, down 0.40%. The open interest is 78,094 lots, down 8.11%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.23, up 8.40% [1]. Inventory - The LME zinc inventory is 48,975 tons with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 52,720 tons, up 1.05% [1]. News - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed a financing and concentrate purchase agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore for the Prieska project. Orion Minerals plans to achieve the first production of the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine project at the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year [1]. - On September 16, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 41.33 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,659 lots [1]. Investment Strategy - For lead, investors with existing long positions should protect their profits [1]. - For zinc, investors can try to go long at low prices with a light position [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The current supply and demand are balanced, with little inventory pressure upstream. As lithium mines are actively resuming production, the expectation of supply contraction weakens. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level, and the key lies in the downstream restocking point. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On September 17, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with the previous day, with increases of 440 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 343,863 lots (-156,404), and the open interest was 294,624 lots (-5,813). The inventory was 39,234 tons (+410) [1]. Lithium - Related Product Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton (+4). The average prices of lithium mica remained flat. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton (+300), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70,900 yuan/ton (+300). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.35 US dollars/kg (+0.05) [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rising. In September, the production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased [1]. - Demand: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium batteries increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 39,234 tons (+410). Social inventory decreased, with inventory in smelters and other sectors decreasing and downstream inventory increasing [1]. Industry News - Pantera Lithium's shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of selling its subsidiary Daytona Lithium Pty Ltd to Energy Exploration Technologies (EnergyX). This acquisition will allow EnergyX to further integrate lithium resources in the Smackover area, and analysts estimate that the lithium resources in this area may exceed 4 million tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1681.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 5.00 yuan (-0.30%) from September 16 [1] - UR05: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from September 16 [1] - UR09: 1755.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.11%) from September 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granules) - Shandong: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Shanxi: 1530.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 10.00 yuan (-0.65%) from September 16 [1] - Henan: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Hebei: 1680.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Jiangsu: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR basis: - 84.00 yuan/ton on September 17, up 3.00 yuan from September 16 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 53.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan from September 16 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 20.00 yuan (-0.68%) from September 16 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: 5083.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1685 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1687 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1681 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market is currently in a high - level consolidation phase. Supply is increasing steadily, with some previously - shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang resuming production and enterprises in the southwest region increasing their operations due to low - cost electricity in the wet season. Demand is mixed, with potential demand from some silicon material plants'复产 but limited downstream inventory - building willingness. Considering supply disturbances and potential production cuts by polysilicon enterprises, short - term silicon prices may remain high, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline [1]. - The polysilicon market is also in high - level consolidation. Supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions. Demand has increased in the short term, with significant trading volume and inventory reduction. However, due to high downstream raw material inventory and pressure on terminal demand, there is pressure on further price increases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton. The futures main contract's closing price rose 0.56% to 8,965 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang resume production and southwest enterprises increase operations. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations; and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Suggest interval operation, continue to hold out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse spreads. Be cautious of potential price drops [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material rose 0.10% to 51.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 0.10% to 52.55 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material rose 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract's closing price fell 0.34% to 53,490 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions. Demand has increased in the short term, with significant trading volume and inventory reduction, but terminal demand is under pressure [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on price dips [1]. Industry News - Italy received nearly 12GW of renewable energy project applications in its first competitive tender under the FER - X transitional ministerial order, including 10.09GW of photovoltaic and 1.67GW of wind power. Only 8GW of photovoltaic and 2.5GW of wind power will be auctioned, and the results will be announced on December 11, 2025. Italy also launched a second round of expression of interest (EOI) for photovoltaic projects using non - Chinese - made components, with a scale of 200MW - 1.6GW [1].

1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250917: Limited Rebound Space [1] 2. Price and Trading Data Shanghai Nickel Futures - **Futures Contracts**: On September 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 120,520 yuan/ton, 120,700 yuan/ton, 120,880 yuan/ton, and 121,110 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 110 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton, 170 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 104,592 lots (+1,913), and the open interest was 66,538 lots (-4,072) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures showed various changes, such as the SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price basis was 990 yuan/ton (+570) [2]. London Nickel Futures - **Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,460 US dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 US dollars/ton, and the on - site closing price was 15,436 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 6,565 lots (-3,998) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The LME nickel 0 - 3 months spread was -188.63 US dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price basis was 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 218,454 tons, and the total inventory was 226,434 tons [2]. Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures - **Futures Contracts**: On September 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume was 230,776 lots (+49,842), and the open interest was 130,786 lots (-3,043) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 95,745 tons (-604) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures also had corresponding changes, such as the 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price - active contract basis was 880 yuan/ton (+150) [2]. 3. Market News - In the second phase of September, the average price of nickel commodity mineral reference price (HPM) rose to $15,000.33 per dry ton, up from $14,899.64 per dry ton in the first phase. The prices of nickel ores with specific nickel content and different moisture contents (MC) are adjusted according to nickel content and moisture content [2]. 4. Core Views Nickel - On September 16, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened high and closed low. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories increased, nickel - iron plant losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron destocked. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Inventory increased in SHFE, LME, and the social market, while it decreased in the bonded area. The enhanced expectation of Fed rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. Stainless Steel - On September 16, the stainless steel main contract opened high and closed low. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 596,300 tons (-15,400). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome were flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 5. Trading Strategies Nickel - It is recommended to short at high levels after the rate cut is implemented [2]. Stainless Steel - It is recommended to wait and see [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted due to the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, and the high copper price suppressing potential demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6991, up 0.05; the total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 [2] 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared with last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, and the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo cut production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price makes downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increases compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreases compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increases compared with last week [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For lead, the supply is tightening temporarily, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals eases. The lead price breaks through 17,000 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. However, the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price [1]. - For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc remains weak, but the extremely low overseas LME zinc inventory and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the zinc price strongly. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, SHFE zinc is expected to be stronger in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the lead futures main contract decreased by 0.61% to 17,055 yuan/ton. The lead basis was - 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 6.29% to 54,978 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.17% to 45,095 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 2.21% to 1.22 [1]. - LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 227,850 tons, and SHFE lead warrant inventory remained unchanged at 59,417 tons. The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.25% to 2,006.50 dollars/ton, and the SHFE - LME lead price ratio decreased by 0.86% to 8.50 [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. For secondary lead, the refinery operation rate is less than 30% due to raw material and loss factors, and the supply tightens temporarily [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, the downstream's purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. Investment Strategy - Keep an eye on profit protection for previous long positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots remained unchanged, and the closing price of the zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.25% to 22,255 yuan/ton. The zinc basis was - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract decreased by 1.22% to 96,641 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7.62% to 84,991 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 6.93% to 1.14 [1]. - LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 48,975 tons, and SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1.56% to 52,170 tons. The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.08% to 2,984.50 dollars/ton, and the SHFE - LME zinc price ratio decreased by 0.33% to 7.46 [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, the operation rate of downstream enterprises has increased significantly after the impacts of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipated. With the continuous decline of the SHFE - LME ratio, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. Investment Strategy - Try to go long with a light position at low prices [1]. Industry News - The geological environmental protection and land reclamation plans of 25 mines, including the Situpu Tungsten Mine in Anhua County, have passed the review [1]. - On September 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 47.54 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 9,406 lots to 165,902 lots. The [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 26.76 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 13,993 lots to 218,799 lots [1].