Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price was 782.50 yuan/g, with a change of 1.18 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 191,341.00, down 2,012.00 from the previous day; open interest was 215,212.00, down 3,440.00 from the previous day; inventory was 36,045.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price was 9,182.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 107.00 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 372,060.00, down 728,580.00 from the previous day; open interest was 373,376.00, up 2,266.00 from the previous day; inventory was 1,208,033.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price was 3,431.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 3.20 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 143,644.00, down 6,488.00 from the previous day; open interest was 340,930.00, up 4,008.00 from the previous day; inventory was 38,679,703.32 (in troy ounces). [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price was 37.94 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.10 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 38,956.00, down 2,669.00 from the previous day; open interest was 122,977.00, down 711.00 from the previous day; inventory was 506,311,741.34 (in troy ounces). [1] Market News and Macroeconomic Information - Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base in the US - Japan trade agreement [1] - Trump's advisors are pushing to temporarily fill the vacant positions on the Fed board, and Fed official Cook hinted at a possible rate cut in the near future [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $50 billion in bonds in Q3, which may cause a liquidity shock. US consumer - end inflation has risen, but due to the possible significant downward revision of new non - farm payrolls from May to July, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, October, and December has increased [1] - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, and the market expects the ECB to cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates by the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,150 - $3,250 and the resistance level around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 760 yuan and the resistance level around 800 - 850 yuan; for London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous short positions when the price is low, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,280, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 26,388 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots. The open interest was 158,574 lots, a decrease of 1,292 lots. The inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,350, a decrease of 265. The Shanghai copper basis was 70, an increase of 35 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was affected, with the registered and unregistered warehouse receipt total inventory at 9,674, an increase of 39.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 62.62, an increase of 4.7 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.413, a decrease of 0.04. The total inventory weight was 263,104, an increase of 1,924 [2]. Industry News - **Copper Foil Industry**: In July 2025, the overall copper foil industry's开工率 was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. It is expected to reach 78.24% in August [2]. - **Project News**: On August 6, Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s annual 40,000 - ton copper strip billet and tool steel production and processing project entered the environmental assessment approval publicity period [2]. - **Smelter Maintenance**: Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure for 22 - 4 weeks, affecting an estimated output of about 20,000 tons [2]. - **Mine Incidents and Production Adjustments**: Multiple mines had incidents or production adjustments, such as Codelco's BI Teniente copper mine suspending mining due to a collapse, and some mines reducing their production expectations [2][3]. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Impact**: Domestic copper concentrate production (import) in August may increase month - on - month. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative but has risen compared to last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port, in - port, and inventory in the world (China) has changed compared to last week [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Investors are advised to take profits on previous short positions when the price is low and pay attention to support and resistance levels of different copper markets [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On August 6, the Shanghai nickel main contract first declined and then rebounded. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel ore price remained flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports last week increased, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, domestic production in August remained flat, and Indonesian production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in August increased, and export profits shrank. The demand for ternary materials and stainless - steel production increased, while the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals were loose, but the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, and the nickel price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to short at high prices [1]. - **Stainless - steel Market**: On August 6, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 644,600 tons (+6,100). In August, stainless - steel production was expected to increase, while the terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat. Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment was relatively large. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and the price was expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closed at 120,790 yuan/ton on August 5, 120,800 yuan/ton on July 30, and 121,520 yuan/ton on August 6 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract on August 6 was 87,840 hands (+3,022), and the open interest was 86,052 hands (-4,491) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different nickel futures contracts (near - month and far - month, and basis between spot and futures) also changed. For example, the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 1,030 yuan/ton on August 5, 990 yuan/ton on July 30, and 40 yuan/ton on August 6 [1]. Stainless - steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) fluctuated. For example, the near - month contract closed at 12,935 yuan/ton on August 6, 12,960 yuan/ton on August 5, and 12,920 yuan/ton on July 30 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel active contract on August 6 was 82,019 hands (+2,193), and the open interest was 84,046 hands (-1,903) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month and far - month, and basis between spot and futures) changed. For example, the basis between 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 540 yuan/ton on August 6, 665 yuan/ton on August 5, and 580 yuan/ton on July 30 [1]. Inventory - **Nickel Ore**: The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 7610,000 wet tons on August 1, 7470,000 wet tons on July 25, and 7150,000 wet tons on July 18, with an increase of 140,000 wet tons compared to July 25 [1]. - **Nickel**: The total social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 795 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while the LME inventory increased, and the inventory in the bonded area increased [1]. - **Stainless - steel**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 644,600 tons (+6,100) [1]. Industry News - Indonesia is promoting regulations for electric vehicle factories to encourage a shift from lithium - ion batteries to iron - based batteries. The global battery demand is expected to reach 8800 GWh by 2040, and Indonesia aims to seize the opportunity by ensuring raw material supply, improving supply - chain efficiency, and establishing strategic partnerships [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and a de - stocking trend in inventory. Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as the bearish market sentiment is digested. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber at 14,800 - 15,000 and 15,700 - 16,000 respectively, and those of butadiene rubber at 10,800 - 11,000 and 11,800 - 12,000 respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - **Natural Rubber**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 15,495, up 950 from the previous day; the trading volume was 261,478 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 183,004 lots, down 2.24%; the registered warrant volume was 176,470, down 40; the basis was - 1,020, down 950; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 125, up 25; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 150, unchanged; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 175, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was - 75, up 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 30, down 20; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 25, unchanged [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 11,505, down 10; the trading volume was 51,579 lots, down 2,366; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,087 lots, down 2,345; the registered warrant volume was 10,310, down 230; the basis was - 138.33, up 10; the North - East China butadiene rubber spread was unchanged; the South - East China butadiene rubber spread was - 50, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was 55, up 85; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 5, up 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 20, down 5 [1] Supply Side - **Natural Rubber**: In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major production areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic production areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, etc., while Hainan has less precipitation [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week. As of August 6, the daily post - tax profit margin of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion paint method was - 300.88 yuan/ton, down 154.86 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of China's S8S solution paint method was 522.12 yuan/ton, down 141.6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the post - tax profit margin of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 1,141.58 yuan/ton, down 176.99 yuan/ton from the previous day. Synthetic rubber - related product devices are relatively stable [1] Inventory Side - **Natural Rubber**: As of August 1, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, down 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,600 tons, down 6,100 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, down 1,200 tons from last week [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, up 142 tons from last week [1] Cost Side - **Natural Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign production areas have fully started tapping. As of August 6, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in US employment data, crude oil prices are expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of August 6, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 342.5 yuan/ton, up 62.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of August 6, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons from last week [1] Demand Side - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail volume of the national automobile market was 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. Tire supporting demand has increased [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's unlikely to significantly reduce methanol supply. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, which will suppress the spot price in East China. Although coking coal sentiment will still affect methanol, the rebound space for methanol is expected to be limited based on the weak fundamentals [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2503 yuan/ton on August 6, 2025, up 6 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2453 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.25%; MA09 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.04% [1] - Methanol spot prices: The daily average price in Taicang was 2387.50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.84%; in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2330 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2382.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.21%; in Shaanxi and Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, it remained unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2105 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 1.20% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 115.50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan or 0.51%; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 562.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 572.50 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: The price in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - based methanol was 457.80 yuan/ton, down 12.60 yuan or - 2.68%; the profit of natural gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 500 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 49.20 yuan/ton, down 45.20 yuan or - 47.88%; the profit of East China MTO was - 651.07 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan or 1.59%; the profit of acetic acid was 211.42 yuan/ton, down 20.81 yuan or - 8.96%; the profit of MTBE was 187.68 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 11.93%; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 301.60 yuan/ton; the profit of a certain product remained unchanged at 142 yuan/ton [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors take profits on their previous short positions when the price drops. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,280, a decrease of 300 from the previous day; the trading volume was 26,388 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the open interest was 158,574 lots, a decrease of 1,292 lots; the inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,350, a decrease of 265 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 70, an increase of 35; the spot premium/discount of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 55, unchanged; the spot premium/discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium/discount of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, a decrease of 15; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 10, unchanged; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 10, a decrease of 10; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, a decrease of 10 [2] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 6, 2025, was 9,674; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 9,674, an increase of 39.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 62.62, an increase of 4.7; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 144.79, a decrease of 2.18; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0918, a decrease of 0.06 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 6, 2025, was 4.413, a decrease of 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,104, an increase of 1,924 [2] 3.2 Industry News - **Copper Foil Industry**: Benefiting from good terminal orders, the copper foil industry's operating rate is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM predicts that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24% [2] - **Project News**: On August 6, the environmental assessment approval of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Co., Ltd.'s annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel was publicly announced. The project is expected to have an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons after completion. The PT Cresik smelter in Indonesia has entered maintenance due to a fault in the oxygen supply equipment, with an estimated impact on production of about 20,000 tons [2] 3.3 Mine - related News - **Production Adjustments and Accidents**: Multiple mines have production adjustments and accidents. For example, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile suspended mining due to a collapse on July 31; Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025; several mines had accidents such as collapses, gas poisoning, and mechanical failures, which affected production [3] - **New Projects and Expansions**: Some mines have new projects or expansions. For example, Tongling Nonferrous' Mirado copper mine in Ecuador may have a second - phase 850,000 - ton production capacity put into operation in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong copper mine may be put into operation by the end of 2025 [3] 3.4 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Strategy**: The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in August may increase month - on - month. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative but has risen compared with last week. The outbound (inbound, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased, decreased) compared with last week [3] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended that investors take profits on their previous short positions when the price drops. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 48,645 lots, up 21.21%; the open interest was 65,019 lots, down 9.80%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.75, up 34.38% [1] - LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 1,997 dollars/ton, up 1.09%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.60% [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable, while secondary lead production is affected by factors such as high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited recycling sources, with some refineries reducing or suspending production. But as the electrolytic lead factory inventory decreases, the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improves, and secondary lead production is gradually recovering [1] - In July, the market still has expectations for peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspend purchases during the monthly inventory check at the end of the week [1] Industry News - In the "China Sinopec 2025 Annual Routine Demand High - Performance Battery Centralized Procurement Framework Agreement Public Tendering for Acid Battery Equipment Procurement Tendering", Hoppecke won the bid as the first - ranked bidder again [1] Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,260 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 89,569 lots, up 4.82%; the open interest was 94,254 lots, down 4.28%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, up 9.51% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 14,375 tons, down 2.92%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,795 dollars/ton, up 1.64%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.01, down 1.61% [1] Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In the context of continuous raw material supply, it is expected that zinc concentrate processing fees will continue to rise in August, weakening cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing significantly [1] - Last week, the decline in zinc prices improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but the terminal is in the off - season, and enterprise production has declined [1] Industry News - Affected by Vietnam's tariff increase, the export orders of some galvanized sheet plants in August have declined significantly, and domestic orders are also weak. The operation rate of domestic galvanized sheets in August may continue to decline [1] - Affected by the increased production of mines in Xinjiang, Hebei and other places, the SMM zinc concentrate production increased significantly in July, but there will be mine overhauls in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places in August, and zinc concentrate production may decline slightly month - on - month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, with the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the market, silicon prices have declined and adjusted, but bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. Short - term silicon prices are expected to consolidate at high levels, and operations require caution. Continued attention should be paid to the resumption dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and prices have repeatedly hit new highs since listing. Although the sentiment has faded recently, it still fluctuates. Prices remain at high levels, the market fluctuates greatly, and operations require caution. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,100 yuan/ton, the closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.96% to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 250 yuan to 400 yuan/ton [1] - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of N - type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg, the closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.02% to 51,345 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 1,015 yuan to - 5,345 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained mostly unchanged, with price ranges from 8,900 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton [1] - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re -投料, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, at 46 yuan/kg, 47 yuan/kg, 45 yuan/kg, and 44.5 yuan/kg respectively [1] - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.55 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.20 yuan/piece respectively [1] - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1] - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided and double - sided, 182mm and 210mm) remained unchanged, ranging from 0.70 yuan/watt to 0.73 yuan/watt [1] - **Organic Silicon Prices**: The price of DMC decreased by 0.81% to 12,300 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.35% to 14,100 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - On July 30, 2025, Boxinyuan (Zibo) New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is advancing its kiloton - scale solid - state battery silicon - carbon anode material project. The project is expected to invest 200 million yuan, aiming to produce 1,000 tons of new silicon - carbon anode materials annually from 2025 to 2027, with an expected annual output value of over 100 million yuan. Samples have been preliminarily recognized by leading domestic enterprises such as Huawei and CATL [1] - On August 1, 2025, the US Department of Commerce launched a second anti - dumping and countervailing sunset review investigation on crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on products imported from Taiwan, China. The US International Trade Commission also launched a second anti - dumping and countervailing sunset review industrial injury investigation on the above - mentioned products [1] Investment Strategies Industrial Silicon - On the supply side, as silicon prices rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise operations have steadily recovered. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, supply has tightened temporarily, and organic silicon prices have continued to rise supported by silicon prices. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Polysilicon - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, production is expected to increase slightly, with July's production expected to approach 110,000 tons [1] - On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak overall, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Recently, driven by the expected increase in polysilicon prices, downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market remains weak due to the large over - consumption of demand by the rush to install in the first half of the year [1]

| | 首说 | 1.美国7月非制造业PMIA6月份的50.8下滑至50.1。低于预期的51.5。7月ISM新订鸟指数从6月份的51.3降至50.3，出口订率在五 个月内第四次陷入萎缩。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 媒 | 8月5日,沪躲主力合约高位震荡,成交量为84818手(-35704),持仓量为90543千(-4924),伦保跌0.07%。现货市场成交较 弱,甚差升水扩大。供给端,镍矿价格下跌,上周躲矿到浴量增加,港口库存累库;镍铁厂亏损幅度收窄,8月国内腓产特 平,印尼斯产增加,铁铁累序;8月国内电解银桃产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂梯产增加;合 金与电领需求稳定。库存来看,上狗所减少,LME增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存增加。综上,纯银基本面偏松,但美联 | | | | 储降息预期增强,预计镍价区间震荡。操作上,建议逢高法空。(观点评分:0) | | 投资集略 | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | | 8月5日,不锈钢主力合约高位震荡,成交量为79826手(-42423),持仓量为85949手(-1526);现货市场成交较 ...

镍与不锈钢周报 情绪反复，宽幅震荡 www.hongyuanqh.com 宏源期货研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 电话：010-82293229 2025年8月6日 电解镍 ⚫ 策略:逢反弹轻仓沽空 ⚫ 运行区间：115000-128000 ⚫ 逻辑：供给端，镍矿价格持平，上周到港量增加，港口累库； 国内铁厂亏损幅度缩小，国内铁厂排产下降，印尼铁厂排产 小幅增加，镍铁小幅累库；国内精炼镍排产上升，出口盈利 缩小。需求端，三元材料排产上升，前驱体排产上升；不锈 钢厂排产上升；合金电镀需求稳定。库存端，上周纯镍社会 库存减少，保税区库存增加。综上，纯镍产量高位，供需偏 松，库存充足，成本存一定支撑，美联储降息概率增加，预 计镍价区间震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：美联储降息预期变化、需求改善超预期、印尼镍产业政策变化 不锈钢 ⚫ 策略:观望 ⚫ 运行区间：12500-13500 ⚫ 逻辑：基本面来看，不锈钢厂排产回升；不锈钢终端需求 一般。成本端支撑坚挺，镍生铁价格上涨，高碳铬铁价格 上涨。库存方面，总库存累库，300系累库。综上，产量 回升，需求一般，库存压力仍大，不 ...