版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面讲可，任何机构和个人不得以任何影式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、预发、需注明出处为宏源期货。且不得对本报告进行有特原意的引用、船节 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 15525 | 15495 | 14945 | 30.00 | | | 成交量(手) 403674 天然橡胶 | 261478 | 377621 | 142, 196.00 - 1 | | | -243 00 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - - - 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 182761 | 183004 | 193642 | | | | 注册仓单量 176320 | 176470 | 179910 | -150.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 -1100 天然橡胶基差 | -1020 | 30 | -8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will remain volatile. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,460, up 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,710 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots; the open interest was 157,601 lots, a decrease of 973 lots; and the inventory was 20,145 tons, a decrease of 201 tons [2]. - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,500, up 150 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 40, a decrease of 30 [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,670.5, down 3.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,000 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.414, up 0.03 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,296 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons [2]. Industry News - Benefiting from good terminal orders, the operating rate of the copper foil industry is on the rise. In July 2025, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM expects the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 to reach 78.24% [2]. - On August 5, the environmental assessment approval of the project of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Co., Ltd. with an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel was publicly announced [2]. - Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of 2 - 4 weeks. The annual output of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons [2]. Industry Operating Rate and Inventory - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory has decreased; the order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wires has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [3]. - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper strip production capacity has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased; the operating rate of China's copper tube production capacity has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have remained flat [3]. - The operating rate of China's brass rod production capacity has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3]. - Domestic electrolytic copper holders are not eager to sell at low prices, and downstream demand is weak, with mainly rigid - demand purchases [3].

裁以及欧佩克及其限产同盟国增产影响的不确定性之际，欧美原油期货在波动交易中连续第六个交易 日收跌。基本面没有预期外的消息，预计PX偏弱运行，PTA偏弱运行，PR偏弱运行。（PX观点评 分：-1，PTA观点评分：-1，PR观点评分：-1）。 免责声明： 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/8 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/8/7 | 美元/桶 | 63.88 | 64.35 | -0.73% | | 上 | 期货结算 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant content provided Group 3: Price Summary - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/8/7 was $571.00 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/8/6 was $821.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/8/8 was 6300.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/8/7 was 2387.50 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) on 2025/8/7 was 290.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG main contract closing price on 2025/8/7 was 4396.00 yuan per ton, down 0.41% [1] - DCE EG main contract settlement price on 2025/8/7 was 4412.00 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/8/7 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/8/7 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/8/7 was 4470.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 4465.00 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/8/7 was - 5.00 yuan per ton, a change of - 1.00 [1] - Basis on 2025/8/7 was 69.00 yuan per ton, a change of - 7.00 [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/8/7 was 8600.00 yuan per ton, down 0.29% [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/8/7 was 7150.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/8/7 was 6480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.15% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/8/7 was 5940.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 4: Operating Conditions Summary - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/8/7 was 58.15%, down 1.39% [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 59.39%, unchanged [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 56.36%, down 3.40% [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/8/7 was 87.09%, unchanged [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of weaving machines in Zhejiang on 2025/8/7 was 57.83%, unchanged [1] Group 5: Cash Flow and Gross Margin Summary - External market naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/6 had a value of - 96.02 dollars per ton, a change of - 4.54 [1] - External market ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/6 was - 108.65 dollars per ton, a change of - 3.00 [1] - MTO - made MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/8/7 was - 1531.01 yuan per ton, a change of - 7.05 [1] - Coal - based synthesis gas method after - tax device gross profit on 2025/8/7 was 559.29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.70 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro factors show some fluctuations, and fundamentally, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season. LME zinc inventory decline overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range with limited downside [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; LME3 - month lead futures closed at 2,007 dollars/ton, up 0.50%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.41, down 0.38% [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,440 yuan/ton, up 0.81%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; Shanghai zinc basis was - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,815.5 dollars/ton, up 0.73%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.02, up 0.16% [1]. 3.2 Production and Supply Information - **Recycled Non - ferrous Metals**: The production of recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc in China reached 1.915 billion tons, including 445 million tons of recycled copper and 1.055 billion tons of recycled aluminum. Recycled lithium salts and cobalt from waste new - energy batteries accounted for 10% and 14% of China's metal lithium salts and cobalt production respectively, and recycled rare - earth production accounted for 15% of China's rare - earth supply [1]. - **Zinc and Lead Mines**: Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, up 25% year - on - year; lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year. A zinc smelter in North China postponed its planned maintenance in September and October [1]. 3.3 Market Fundamentals - **Lead**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable. For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Demand is expected to enter the peak season, but enterprises paused purchasing this week for inventory checks [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Production is increasing, but demand is in the off - season, and enterprises' operating rates have declined [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has fallen and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the disk, but the bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. It is expected that the silicon price will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and operations need to be cautious. [1] - Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon futures price has continuously reached new highs since its listing. Recently, although the sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates, and the price maintains a high - level consolidation with large disk fluctuations. Operations need to be cautious. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.52% to 8,655 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily. [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increments. An organic silicon manufacturer stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. With the support of the silicon price on the cost side, the organic silicon price has continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient. [1] Investment Strategy - Considering the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the disk, the silicon price has fallen and adjusted, but the bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. It is expected that the silicon price will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and operations need to be cautious. Continuously monitor the resumption of production of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 2.41% to 50,110 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, and the output in July is expected to approach 110,000 tons. [1] - On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in the polysilicon price, the downstream silicon wafer price has followed the increase, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand by the rush to install in the first half of the year. [1] Investment Strategy - Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon futures price has continuously reached new highs since its listing. Recently, although the sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates, and the price maintains a high - level consolidation with large disk fluctuations. Operations need to be cautious. Continuously monitor the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts. [1] Other Information - On August 7, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 429,000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts), a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons. [1] - The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia announced a plan to build solar power stations for "Kopdes Merah Putih" to cover rural and remote areas, aiming to achieve a solar installed capacity of up to 100 GW. [1] - The National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early - Warning Center released the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in June 2025. The new energy utilization rate is calculated considering only the power limitation due to system reasons. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and North Kivu, Congo, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are all within a reasonable range. Given the expected increase in production and inventory and the influence of factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations and mine resumptions, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State determined on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental production of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and imports in August [20]. - China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (or remained flat) compared to last week, and China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month [27]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin mining company PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. The export volume in August may increase month - on - month, but due to the loss in imports and exports, China's refined tin imports and exports in August may decrease month - on - month [31]. Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of China's tin solder in August may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month [34]. - China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production and exports in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease month - on - month [42]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai and London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five - year average [8][10]. - China's refined tin social inventory, SHFE refined tin inventory, and the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory have increased compared to last week, while the LME refined tin inventory has decreased [11][13]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has shown a downward trend, indicating a potentially tight supply of domestic tin ore [14][16]. Other - The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid battery has remained flat compared to last week [44][47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the lithium carbonate market remains weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market Data - **Prices**: On August 6, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared to the previous day, with increases of 1,560 yuan/ton, 1,580 yuan/ton, 1,780 yuan/ton, and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) decreased by 2,030 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 425,359 lots, a decrease of 11,848 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 257,770 lots, an increase of 25,708 lots [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 15,023 tons, an increase of 580 tons compared to the previous day. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed that the inventory of smelters decreased by 3,427 tons, downstream inventory increased by 3,073 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons, with a total decrease of 1,444 tons [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one, continuous - one and continuous - two, and continuous - two and continuous - three all changed to some extent. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the CIF China - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide spread decreased by 271.79 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] 3. Other Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, negative electrode materials, and electrolytes all showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, micro - powder type, domestic) decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 50 yuan/ton [1] 4. Industry News - Indonesia is promoting regulations for electric vehicle factories, encouraging a shift from lithium batteries to silver batteries. The global battery demand is expected to reach 8,800 GWh by 2040, and Indonesia aims to seize the opportunity by ensuring raw material supply, improving supply - chain efficiency, and establishing strategic partnerships [1] - On July 31, the first batch of lithium carbonate products from the 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of Qinghai Huixin under China Salt Lake were shipped. The project has been running stably, with the first - batch product purity over 99.6%, meeting the power - battery - grade standard [1] - Xifeng Lithium Industry stated that its Mali Goulaman mine's operation has not been directly affected by the political environment, and production and transportation are normal [1] - According to Chilean customs data, Chile's lithium carbonate exports in July were 20,990 tons, with 13,633 tons exported to China, a year - on - year decrease and a month - on - month increase of 39%. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected to arrive at Chinese ports in August and September [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - India's IPL urea import tender price has jumped, exceeding market expectations, boosting the export demand of the domestic market. The urea resources have been continuously gathered at ports in the past month, and the current port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons. However, in terms of domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with the daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant, mainly affected by the increase in port - gathering. The upstream enterprise inventory is still about 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If the export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, compared with August 5, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.84%), in Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.61%); UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.44%); UR09 decreased by 22 yuan/ton (-1.24%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan (small - particle), it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%); in Hebei, it increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.72%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Yunnan and Shanxi remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The melamine price in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/ton (1.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 18 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1]

| 贵金属日评20250807:美联储官员暗示近期或重启降息,关注英国央行8月利率决议 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-05 | 2025-08-06 | 收盘价 | 782. 50 | 770. 28 | 1.18 | 783. 68 | 13. 40 | | | | | 成交量 | 191341.00 | 193353.00 | -2, 012. 00 | 260701.00 | -69, 360. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 215212. 00 | 218652. 00 | 217080.00 | -3, 440. 00 | -1,868.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36009.00 | 35643.00 | 36.00 | 402. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...