Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a sideways and consolidating manner, with its focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, with the market focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production affected. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2][3] - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2605 closed at 100,600 CNY/ton, with a 1.4% decrease in trading volume, increased open interest, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,750 CNY/ton, with increased upstream selling willingness and decreased downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2] - Supply - side raw material prices rose slightly year - on - year, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.29%, a 0.27% increase, and the output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% increase. The lithium spodumene process was the core growth driver, with new projects being launched. The potential cancellation of Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining right strengthened short - term bullish sentiment, and the commissioning of Xikeng and Inner Mongolia Veraste projects clarified long - term production capacity release [3] - On the demand side, the output of cathode materials decreased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will raise processing fees in 2026. In the terminal market, the output of new energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% year - on - year in November, and new energy vehicle sales increased significantly year - on - year as of December 7, with short - term adjustments but long - term resilience [3] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample continued to decline, with the overall inventory remaining tight, which supported price [3] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference provided long - term support for lithium carbonate's supply - demand pattern. Market sentiment was affected by supply - demand balance and various production - capacity news, leading to intensified long - short games. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to long - term production capacity release and the net - short position of the main force [4]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Views - **For成材**: The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, causing the price center of gravity to continuously shift downward. It is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - **For铝锭**: With macro - easing support, the domestic off - season approaching, and inventory trends being volatile, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. High prices have a large inhibitory effect on consumption. Attention should be paid to macro guidance and news from the ore end [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog **成材** - **Production and Supply**: In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and the resumption of production is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, most of the others will stop production around mid - January, and individual ones are expected to stop production after January 20th, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - **Sales and Market**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2%. The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. The winter storage this year is rather sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4]. **铝锭** - **Macro Environment**: On Tuesday, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in November reached 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, both higher than market expectations, and the market sentiment has gradually cooled down compared with the previous period [3]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The alumina market currently continues the pattern of oversupply. The supply has increased driven by the resumption of production of some enterprises, and the downstream inventory has further accumulated to 4.933 million tons, with increasing inventory pressure. The domestic weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8% week - on - week, continuing the weak operation in the off - season. As of December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 1,000 tons compared with last Monday [4].

逻辑：国家发改委在《求是》杂志发表《坚定实施扩大内需战略》文 章指出，加快健全扩大内需体制机制。推动清理汽车、住房等消费不合理 限制性措施，建立健全适应消费新业态新模式新场景的管理办法。截至 12 月 16 日，5 家钢厂公布 2026 年冬储政策，涵盖东北、华北及西北地区。 政策要求 12 月 20 日前全额付款，未结算资源按次年 3 月 16 日至 4 月 15 日均价结算，单日结算上限 15%，计息方式为 6 厘按日计、点价当日止息。 邯郸已于 12 月 14 日启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，辖区内钢铁企业严格 落实限产管控措施，板材钢厂三座高炉处于检修状态，预计日均铁水产量 将减少约 15000 吨；另有一座高炉计划加入检修行列，届时将进一步影响 日均铁水产量约 5000 吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 底部运行 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场情绪高涨 聚焦资金博弈与供需边际 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 16 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约 LC2605 较上一交易日上涨 3.42%至 10.16 万元/吨，成交和持仓量持续放量，主力净空格局延续，资金博弈加剧价格 波动，盘面价格中心持续上移。截至收盘，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 95，150 元/吨，主力合约基差扩大至-6，450 元/吨，期现背离加剧。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward. The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The view is that it will operate in a range - bound and sorted manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the market believes that Fed Chairman Powell's comments and policy statements are less hawkish than expected, the US dollar weakens, and the market focuses on more economic data guidance [3] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase under high profits. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, continuing the weak trend in the off - season [4] - The aluminum plate and strip operating rate is 65.0%, affected by environmental protection restrictions and order decline. The aluminum cable operating rate remains at 62.4%, with slow grid order pick - up. The aluminum profile operating rate rebounds by 1 percentage point to 53%, supported by short - term concentrated delivery of industrial materials. The aluminum foil operating rate stabilizes at 70.4%, with a structural hedge between shrinking traditional packaging foil demand and stable new - energy aluminum foil demand. The recycled aluminum is the most significantly declining sector due to environmental warnings and high raw material costs [4] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the delayed shipment of Xinjiang aluminum ingots and the toughness of aluminum product consumption, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered the continuous accumulation stage [4] - Supported by macro - interest rate cuts, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, the inventory trend is volatile, and the price continues to rise. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a short - term range, and high prices have a greater inhibitory effect on consumption. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance [5]

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.12.15 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.12.12 | 2025.12.5 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2025.12.12 | 2025.12.5 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3060 | 3157 | -97 | -3.07% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3270 | 3290 | -20 | -0.61% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2605 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.12.15 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 12. 12 2025. 12. 5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 12. 12 2025. 12. 5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 94080 | 92780 | 1300 | 1. 40% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 93830 | 91400 | 2430 | 2. 66% | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macro drivers have been realized, and industrial policies are negative for iron ore demand. The decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations, and molten iron is expected to continue to decline. The supply side is generally stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. The short - term market focus will shift to the weak reality, with a short - term trend of weak oscillation [2][3]. - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore (05) will operate in the range of 750 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market (FE01) price of approximately 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Impact - In 2026, the implementation of export license management for some steel products will come into effect on January 1st. This measure aims to control the chaos in the steel export market, promote the industrial upgrading of the domestic steel industry, and guide the export of high - value - added products. Export controls will reduce domestic iron ore demand and suppress iron ore prices [3]. Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign iron ore has increased slightly. Shipments from Australia have increased slightly, those from Brazil have decreased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream mines have increased substantially. Considering seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, major mines may increase shipments at the end of the year. In the short term, the arrival volume shows a downward trend [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has continued to decline at an accelerating pace, with the decline exceeding expectations. The combined effects of environmental protection restrictions and annual maintenance are the main reasons. The average daily molten iron production this period is 229.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 million tons, the largest single - week decline since the peak in the second half of the year, and the absolute level is lower than the same period last year. Blast furnace maintenance has occurred in multiple regions, and blast furnace restarts have taken place in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong [3]. Inventory - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventories remain at a low level, with a week - on - week decline and at a low level compared to the same period. Steel mills' restocking actions are weak. Port inventories are continuously accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume and the decline in the high - level port clearance volume. It is expected that port inventories will continue to accumulate in December [3]. 4. Strategy - Adopt interval operation and covered call options [4].

成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 15 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位震荡。宏观上市场认为美联储主席鲍威尔的评论和 政策声明不如预期鹰派，这增强了美元抛售势头。由于通胀趋势和劳动力 市场的强劲程度仍不明朗，市场对明年美国货币政策的走向面临不确定性。 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存表现反复 年底消费分化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, supported by a tight supply - demand balance [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - **Market Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - **Market Situation**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Sentiment**: Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2605 broke through 100,000 yuan/ton and then fell back, closing at 97,720 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease. The market's long - term expectation for lithium carbonate is stronger than the spot fundamentals, and market trading activity continues [1] - **Supply Side**: The average prices of spodumene and lepidolite increased by 1% week - on - week, and the cost support at the raw material end continues to strengthen. The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate is 51.29%, remaining basically stable, and the weekly output is 21,998 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week. Supply is steadily increasing with the release of new production lines [2] - **Demand Side**: The weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will raise processing fees in 2026. In November, the domestic power battery loading volume was 93.5 GWh, a 11.2% increase from the previous month, which offsets some of the off - season effects [2] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 11, the weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased by 2,100 tons to 111,600 tons, remaining in a state of decline, and the low - inventory pattern supports prices [2] - **Macro Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan support the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. Overseas resource and restart news have disturbed the market. The price center moves upward due to tight supply - demand balance and policy benefits, and the price fluctuates due to the game between long and short positions [3]