Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: Still treat it as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Key points from the logic part: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,910 yuan/ton on June 18th, the average profit of steel mills was 100 yuan/ton. 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. As of June 18th, the incremental steel billet supply in the East China region in June was about 470,000 tons, with export orders accounting for 36.4%. The increase in steel billet supply was mainly due to the narrowing profit of rebar and more rolling line overhauls. The finished products continued the previous trend, trading in a narrow range at a low level with light market sentiment. Downstream demand has seasonally weakened and is unlikely to improve in the short term, while high -开工 and high - output still persist. The current finished product fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and weak demand [2] Group 4 - Suggestion: It is still recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [2][3] Group 5 - Later concerns: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand situation [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory continuing and the price in a high - level game during the off - season [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% unchanged, and it may cut interest rates twice this year according to the dot - plot. Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday [2] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina didn't change much. Due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina. There is an expectation of a decline in the prices of alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for electrolytic aluminum [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong. The weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, with different performances in each segment [3] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory reduction slowed down in mid - June. Affected by regional price differences and transfers, the inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in the Central Plains increased significantly, while that in Foshan, South China decreased greatly, and other regions remained stable. The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory reduction trend, but the increase in shipments from the northwest and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remains high, and price rebounds are still weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Logic**: Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, with a slight decline in the night session, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, after the third round of price cuts for coke in the production areas, the prices temporarily stabilized, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi that were shut down due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and production increased. The decline in spot coal prices narrowed this week, market transactions improved, and low - price resources got better, but coal mine inventories continued to increase. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed recently, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and the fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is that the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated with a bearish view [2]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors will increase price uncertainty. In the short - term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market focus returns to a weak pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. With demand in a downward trend and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival at ports) increasing, the short - term iron ore price is expected to run weakly in a fluctuating manner [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with Australian shipments rising notably while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. As June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments and Australian BHP and FMG mines are in their fiscal year end for volume - boosting, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron output has declined for five consecutive weeks, with the current daily average at 241.61 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is also considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking, it is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level but with a relatively gentle downward slope. The high - level demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased on a month - on - month basis. The daily consumption continued to decline but remained at a high level compared to the same period. As the market has a weak expectation for demand, the expectation for restocking is also weak. With the increase in the arrival volume at ports and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period, but due to the high - level demand, the pressure for inventory accumulation is relatively weak [2].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large. Prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 Summary of logic - Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area remained stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - As of the morning of June 17, according to the latest research, coal mines in Puxian area have not stopped production. The corresponding shutdown capacity of pithead coal washing is 7.2 million tons, and the shutdown time is generally about ten days. One pithead coal washing plant that shut down yesterday has resumed production. Although coal mines are operating normally, some transportation has been affected by environmental inspections. In the short term, the reduction of coking coal supply in Linfen is less than expected [2] - Last week, the refined coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound is still insufficient [2]

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 6 月 18 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。美国经济数据趋软以及中东地缘政治紧张局 势令市场感到紧张。美国 5 月零售销售弱于预期，但消费者支出仍然受到 稳健薪资增长的支撑。关注美联储周三政策决定，市场普遍预计美联储将 维持其指标隔夜利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，但焦点仍将集中在有 关利率前景的任何指 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on rallies for both finished products and raw materials [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate Transaction Data - From June 9th to June 15th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, with a 24% month - on - month increase and a 3.6% year - on - year decrease; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1823 million square meters, with a 17.8% month - on - month increase and a 5.4% year - on - year increase [3] Steel Mill Cost and Profit - On June 17th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3262 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton, an average profit loss of 129 yuan/ton, and a valley - electricity profit loss of 26 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation and Suggestion - The finished products oscillated and sorted at a low level yesterday, with downstream demand seasonally weakened and difficult to improve effectively in the short term, while high - start and high - output situations still exist, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [3] - The view on raw materials is also to try short - selling on rallies [3]

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：去库持续 关注支撑力度 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再 ...

原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 成材 成材：基本面变化不大 钢价小幅反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 17 日 逻辑：国家统 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view is that the short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling, but fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coal and coke have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large, so prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, affected by the news of coal mine production cuts in the production areas, the overall price of coal and coke continued a slight rebound trend. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area has been stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period; coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - According to Mysteel research, due to environmental protection factors, inspections in multiple areas of Linfen have become stricter. Some pit coal washing plants in Pu County have stopped production, involving a pit coal washing capacity of 8.7 million tons, and the resumption time is uncertain. Some coal mines also have production - stop plans, and the number of passively or actively shut - down coal mines in the region may increase in the short term, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of coking coal in Linfen [2] - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons with a slightly slower growth rate; the raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production - cut behavior of coal mines, and the driving force for coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals is still insufficient [2]