Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to view the price as "oscillating weakly" and take a bearish stance [2]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic macro - expectation is weak, the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The demand maintains a downward trend but stays at a relatively high level, and the supply side has a strong expectation of incremental growth. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will oscillate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and the iron ore price followed. The demand for finished products shows off - season characteristics but no inventory accumulation. The supply of iron ore has a seasonal increase, and the profit of blast furnaces is relatively good. Domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which supports the iron ore price [2]. Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. In June, it is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. With the fiscal year end volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic hot - metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The current daily average hot - metal output is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). The current profit rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is relatively good. With the full - depth losses of short - process steelmaking, the demand for iron ore is resilient, and high demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - floating shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on - demand due to weak demand expectations. Due to the decline in arrivals and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak due to high demand [2]. Price - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly and should be treated bearishly [2].

晨报 成材 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 20 日 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 4.61 万吨至 212.18 万吨， 热卷产量上升 0.8 万吨至 325.45 万吨，五大材产量上升 9.66 万吨自 868.51 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 7.01 万吨至 551.07 万吨，热卷总库存 下降 5.24 万吨至 340.17 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：钢厂第 4 轮提降焦价 盘面低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 20 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦价格整体延续震荡走势。现货端，6 月 20 日河北 地区钢厂钢厂开始对焦炭进行第 4 轮提降，降幅 50-55 元/吨，计划 23 日起执行；焦煤现货保持弱稳运行，尚未有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 市场方面，本周山西部分因安全原因停产煤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 steel mill stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 79.92% due to the consideration of ore - using costs [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing was strong. The weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% [3] - On June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. It was still at a low level in the past three years [3] - In June, the proportion of aluminum water is expected to rise slightly, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. However, due to the expected increase in ingot casting by some aluminum plants, the supply and shipment in the northwest have increased slightly, and the arrival of goods has put pressure on the East China region, alleviating the shortage of circulating goods [3] - The high - level operation of aluminum prices has inhibited domestic demand, and the inventory reduction in the second half of the month may face slowdown pressure [3] - Overseas macro - instability still exists. Low inventory and the expected increase in the proportion of aluminum water support aluminum prices, but the off - season demand pressure limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand [4]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：议息结果符合预期 矿价短期偏弱运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 供应方面：本期外矿发运环比小幅增加，澳洲铁矿石发往中国量大幅增加，澳洲发运增加 明显，而巴西发运高位回落，非主流国家发运小幅波动。6 月份是外矿发运旺季，叠加澳洲 BHP、 FMG 矿山财年冲量，预计外矿发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内需求高位回落但仍处于高位水平，铁水连续五周回落，本期日均 241.61（环 比-0.19），高炉以常规检修为主，当前钢厂盈利率水平较高且高炉利润水平相对可观，叠加短 流程全面深度 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: Still treat it as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Key points from the logic part: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,910 yuan/ton on June 18th, the average profit of steel mills was 100 yuan/ton. 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. As of June 18th, the incremental steel billet supply in the East China region in June was about 470,000 tons, with export orders accounting for 36.4%. The increase in steel billet supply was mainly due to the narrowing profit of rebar and more rolling line overhauls. The finished products continued the previous trend, trading in a narrow range at a low level with light market sentiment. Downstream demand has seasonally weakened and is unlikely to improve in the short term, while high -开工 and high - output still persist. The current finished product fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and weak demand [2] Group 4 - Suggestion: It is still recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [2][3] Group 5 - Later concerns: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand situation [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory continuing and the price in a high - level game during the off - season [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% unchanged, and it may cut interest rates twice this year according to the dot - plot. Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday [2] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina didn't change much. Due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina. There is an expectation of a decline in the prices of alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for electrolytic aluminum [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong. The weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, with different performances in each segment [3] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory reduction slowed down in mid - June. Affected by regional price differences and transfers, the inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in the Central Plains increased significantly, while that in Foshan, South China decreased greatly, and other regions remained stable. The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory reduction trend, but the increase in shipments from the northwest and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remains high, and price rebounds are still weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Logic**: Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, with a slight decline in the night session, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, after the third round of price cuts for coke in the production areas, the prices temporarily stabilized, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi that were shut down due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and production increased. The decline in spot coal prices narrowed this week, market transactions improved, and low - price resources got better, but coal mine inventories continued to increase. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed recently, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and the fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is that the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated with a bearish view [2]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors will increase price uncertainty. In the short - term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market focus returns to a weak pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. With demand in a downward trend and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival at ports) increasing, the short - term iron ore price is expected to run weakly in a fluctuating manner [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with Australian shipments rising notably while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. As June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments and Australian BHP and FMG mines are in their fiscal year end for volume - boosting, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron output has declined for five consecutive weeks, with the current daily average at 241.61 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is also considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking, it is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level but with a relatively gentle downward slope. The high - level demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased on a month - on - month basis. The daily consumption continued to decline but remained at a high level compared to the same period. As the market has a weak expectation for demand, the expectation for restocking is also weak. With the increase in the arrival volume at ports and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period, but due to the high - level demand, the pressure for inventory accumulation is relatively weak [2].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large. Prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 Summary of logic - Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area remained stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - As of the morning of June 17, according to the latest research, coal mines in Puxian area have not stopped production. The corresponding shutdown capacity of pithead coal washing is 7.2 million tons, and the shutdown time is generally about ten days. One pithead coal washing plant that shut down yesterday has resumed production. Although coal mines are operating normally, some transportation has been affected by environmental inspections. In the short term, the reduction of coking coal supply in Linfen is less than expected [2] - Last week, the refined coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound is still insufficient [2]