晨报 工业硅 工业硅：过剩格局短期难改库存仍处高位，硅价弱势震荡 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场弱势运行，受下游需求持续弱影响，市场持续 低迷运行。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 8900-9200 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9800-10100 元/吨。期货端：昨日工业硅主力 2506 合约收盘价格 8320 元，幅度+0.24%，涨 20 元，单日减仓 1216 手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：工业硅市场整体供应宽松，北方厂家有小幅减量，临近丰水期， 北降南增趋势逐渐显现,但受行情价格影响，西南厂家整体开工意愿较弱，供应 端变化不大。受下游需求影响，成交价格有所下探,买方仍占据主导地位,市场 整体成交一般。甘肃产区工业硅开工较稳定，近期受价格影响或有转减产现象 发生。中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade relationship shows signs of easing, with the negotiation outcome mainly depending on the US. The market expects the US to reduce tariffs to 80%, while China hopes to restore tariffs to the level before April. Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a vacuum, and future incremental policies will depend on tariff impacts and the performance of the equity market [3]. - Short - term demand has basically peaked but the inflection point is yet to come. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export end. As supply continues to rise, the iron ore supply - demand is expected to remain in a loose pattern [3]. - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The price range for the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and for the outer - market FE06 contract, it is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Logic - After the holiday, the iron ore price was generally weak. The monetary policy on May 7th caused a price pulse, and the Politburo meeting at the end of April and the monetary policy in early May both saw the fulfillment of positive factors. The terminal demand expectation is still weak. Although the high export data in April showed high resilience, the "rush - to - export" growth rate significantly declined. The weekly high - frequency data shows that the decline in the apparent demand for finished products last week exceeded the previous and seasonal levels. The rebar inventory decreased seasonally, while the hot - rolled coil inventory slightly increased. Future attention should be paid to the expected changes in exports and the impact of the weakening manufacturing processing profit on hot - rolled coils [2]. Supply - In April, iron ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume in April was 10313.80 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate rising from - 6.5% in March to 1.3%, and the import value year - on - year rising from - 21.5% in March to - 12.2%. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady recovery in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron production has remained above 245 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks (Steel Union data). Considering the decline in the apparent demand for finished products and the expected impact on the export end, the upward potential of molten iron is limited, and there is a high probability that the short - term demand has reached its peak. However, the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is necessary to wait for the verification of negative factors on the export end. It is expected that the molten iron production will remain at a relatively high level next week [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Future attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [3].

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪支撑 关注消费和库存验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡，运行重心小幅上移。上周会议结束后首批发 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The current marginal demand for industrial silicon is weakening, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and high inventory and high warehouse receipts suppress the price rebound. Silicon prices are in a weak and volatile state [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon spot market is running weakly. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the market is in a continuous slump. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10200 yuan/ton [1]. - Last Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8205, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily position reduction was 10,933 lots. The current position is 170,200 lots, and the trading volume is 14.349 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Northwest large - scale factories continue to cut production. The eastern production area has shut down 3 submerged arc furnaces, and the western production area has shut down 5 submerged arc furnaces, a total of 8. There may be more shutdown plans in the future. In the southwest production area, manufacturers are cautious about the current market, but some manufacturers said they will increase or resume production. It is expected that about 10 submerged arc furnaces will resume production from the end of the month to the second half of the month [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices have no obvious fluctuations and remain within a range. The N - type compact material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, the N - type granular silicon is quoted at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the N - type re - feed material is quoted at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and the N - type mixed material is quoted at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Component inventories are under pressure, and some enterprises are gradually planning production cuts. The main polysilicon futures contract ps2506 is approaching its first delivery, with obvious long - short differences in the market [1]. - The market price of organic silicon DMC is generally stable, with the mainstream opening price in the market referring to 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The organic silicon market shows signs of phased stabilization, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable. The industry's operating rate has decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders, and their willingness to stock up after the holiday is insufficient [1]. Inventory On May 9, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 67,338 lots, a single - week decrease of 1,898 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to decrease but remains at a high level [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and operate within a range, with low inventory providing some support [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and the daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with little price support [2] Aluminum - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in production capacity is 109.22 million tons/year, the total operating capacity is 87.02 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2] - Before the festival, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% week - on - week and 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate rising, other sectors decreased [2] - On May 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from Tuesday and an increase of 6,000 tons from April 30 [2] - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory performance during the May Day holiday was better than expected, and the inventory accumulation was controllable. The inventory continued to decline after the festival, indicating strong consumption resilience [2]

晨报 成材 成材：基本面走弱 钢价向下调整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 9 日 逻辑：中钢协数据显示，2025 年 4 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生 产粗钢 2202 万吨，平均日产 220.2 万吨，日产环比下降 1.2%；钢材库存 量 1529 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.5%。本周，五大钢材品 种供应 874.17 万吨，周环比降 9.52 万吨，降幅为 1.1%；总库存 1476.07 万吨，周环比增 28.97 万吨，增幅为 2.0%；五大品种周度表观消费量为 846.37 万吨，环比降 12.7%。全国 91 家高炉钢厂，4 月底螺纹钢平均含 税成本为 3077 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，盈利 26 元/吨，减少 25 元/ 吨；热卷含税成本 3175 元/吨，环比减少 17 元/吨，盈利 71 元/吨，减少 62 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日下跌，五大材库存由降转增，且表需出现较大幅度下降。下 游无明显改善。此前的粗钢限产传闻对价格的支撑缺乏力度和持续性。后 续进入季节性淡季，钢价缺乏向上驱动。 观点：驱动不强，整体 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market bottoming signal for industrial silicon is unclear. Social inventory and the number of warehouse receipts suppress the rebound height, and silicon prices are expected to continue to run sluggishly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Conditions - On May 8, 2025, the industrial silicon spot market was weak. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9000 - 9300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9900 - 10200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8315, down 0.36%, with a single - day reduction of 1671 lots, current positions of 181,100 lots, and a trading volume of 16.375 billion yuan. The si2506 showed a "V" - shaped trend on that day [1]. Supply Side - In the southwest region, as the wet season approaches, due to low prices and expanding industry losses, the enthusiasm for enterprise resumption is significantly lower than in previous years, with only partial capacity slowly releasing. In the northwest region, the operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The current market price has fallen below the cash cost of most factories, the industry's loss - making area has expanded, but due to previous hedging and forward price locking, the production reduction is limited, and the capacity adjustment cycle is lengthened. The de - stocking process is slow. Although the prices of silica and reducing agents in the southwest region have slightly declined, cost support cannot offset the downward pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable, the supply - demand game has deepened, and the mentality of enterprise production reduction is brewing but not yet concentrated. Organic silicon DMC prices are stable, with the market's mainstream opening price at 11500 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Terminal demand is weak, factories frequently reduce production and conduct maintenance. Although the DMC price has a slight rebound, orders are mainly from pre - holiday inventory digestion, and post - holiday market transactions have weakened. Aluminum alloy ingot prices have fallen, the industry's operating rate has been adjusted down, and downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders and have insufficient willingness to stock up after the holiday [1]. Inventory - On May 8, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 68,415 lots, a single - day decrease of 271 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory has been decreasing recently but remains at a high level [1].

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 8 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价向下调整。美联储将指标利率稳定在 4.25%-4.50%的区 间，但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险已经加剧，美联储判断失业率和通胀 上升的风险已经加剧，美国经济前景仍不明朗。国内央行宣布降准降息。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工率施压 铝价偏弱调整 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投 ...

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：需求不振去库不佳，硅价加速探底 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 5 月 8 日 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅市场价格继续下跌，目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9000-9300 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9900-10200 元/吨。期货端：工业硅期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8290，-0.96%，延续增仓下跌，单日增仓 3246 手当前持仓为 18.28 万手，成交额为 101.41 亿元。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：北方内蒙古、陕西、宁夏和山东在产硅企，保持当前开工，产量 波动不大，市场价格一直下跌的情况下，硅企亏损加大，生产承压，若行情长 时间延续当前格局，部分硅企存在减产停工计划， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current reality of iron ore is strong, but the medium - to - long - term loose pattern is difficult to change. Short - term news - stimulated rebounds are still opportunities for short - allocation, and it is recommended to be bearish [2]. - The short - term domestic demand is basically at its peak but waiting for the inflection point. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export side. As the supply side continues to recover, the supply - demand of iron ore is expected to remain loose overall [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Due to the maintenance of individual port berths in Australia, Australia's shipments have significantly declined, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions remain relatively stable. In May, it is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady increase in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period, with molten iron reaching over 245,000 tons per day (according to Mysteel). It is expected that the increase in molten iron is limited, but currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. The short - term demand side may remain at a high level, and later, the negative impact on the export side needs to be gradually realized [3]. Inventory - Considering the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory level in May will remain relatively stable or tend to decline, but overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [4]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton; the price range of the overseas FE06 contract is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [4].