1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current reality of iron ore is strong, but the medium - to - long - term loose pattern is difficult to change. Short - term news - stimulated rebounds are still opportunities for short - allocation, and it is recommended to be bearish [2]. - The short - term domestic demand is basically at its peak but waiting for the inflection point. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export side. As the supply side continues to recover, the supply - demand of iron ore is expected to remain loose overall [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Due to the maintenance of individual port berths in Australia, Australia's shipments have significantly declined, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions remain relatively stable. In May, it is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady increase in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period, with molten iron reaching over 245,000 tons per day (according to Mysteel). It is expected that the increase in molten iron is limited, but currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. The short - term demand side may remain at a high level, and later, the negative impact on the export side needs to be gradually realized [3]. Inventory - Considering the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory level in May will remain relatively stable or tend to decline, but overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [4]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton; the price range of the overseas FE06 contract is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the industrial cost has collapsed. The contract value is approaching the cash cost of leading enterprises, and it is accelerating to find the bottom in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The industrial silicon spot market was weakly stable yesterday. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,000 - 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,325, down 2.57%. It continued to decline with a significant increase in positions. The main contract added 13,001 positions in a single day, with the current position at 179,500 lots and the trading volume at 11.279 billion yuan [1] Supply - end - The industrial silicon production in Gansu was relatively stable, but there might be a shift to production reduction due to price impacts recently. The output of 97 silicon remained low, and it was difficult to increase the short - term production. The operating rate of intermediate frequency furnaces was low, and the price was still at a low level, but the inquiry situation of traders improved. The market continued to decline, some manufacturers lowered their quotes, the "buy on rising" sentiment intensified, and buyers were still dominant. There were a small number of transactions of low - priced goods from some spot - futures traders [1] Demand - end - The price of polysilicon was temporarily stable, but the demand further declined, and the silicon material price was under pressure. The prices of N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material were 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells were lowered again, and the market was obviously weak. The rapid decline in demand led to an imbalance in supply and demand in each link. The price of organic silicon DMC fluctuated. The market's mainstream opening price was 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some new units of monomer plants entered planned maintenance in May, and the price of the organic silicon spot market stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises were still digesting pre - holiday inventories, and there was no significant increase in demand in the short term. The spot prices of aluminum alloy ingots in some regions decreased, the terminal demand was continuously weak, the phenomenon of production reduction or suspension of procurement by die - casting enterprises increased, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and alloy ingot enterprises were accumulating inventories [1] Inventory - On May 6, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 68,930 lots, a single - day decrease of 360 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]

成材：关注宏观政策 价格偏弱整理 晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 7 日 逻辑：国务院新闻办公室将于 5 月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，请 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人 介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。财政 部部长蓝佛安表示，中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右增长目标。5 月 6 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平 均成本为 3341 元/吨，平均利润亏损 80 元/吨，谷电利润为 26 元/吨。上 周，钢厂检修产线数量有所下降。有 11 个省份的钢厂涉及检修和复产， 其中检修产线 4 条，复产产线 5 条，按照轧机产量测算，因检修&复产导 致产量减少 15.6 万吨。预计本周检修&复产将导致产量减少 11.92 万吨， 影响量有所下降。 证监许可【2011】1452 ...

晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱震荡。美国关税的不确定性导致美国消费者信心数 据恶化，美联储主 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡旺季交替节点在即 关注库存走势 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：预计价格短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-70 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industry lacks upward drivers and is in a weak consolidation phase, with overall pressure due to weak downstream demand and entering the seasonal off - season [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Construction Steel - In April, the daily average trading volume of national construction steel was 11,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.93% [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - In April, the total output of sample hot - rolled coil steel mills was 1.2679 billion tons, the final inventory was 2.8286 billion tons, and the apparent demand was 3.2436 billion tons [3] Real Estate - In April, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,764 yuan per square meter, a structural month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 2.50% - In April, the average price of second - hand residential buildings in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.23% [3] Market Situation - During the holiday, overseas markets showed mixed trends, and the overseas iron ore market declined slightly. The macro - environment has limited impact on black - series products - Before the holiday, the performance of finished products was weak. Although there were rumors of crude steel production restrictions driving up steel prices, the price quickly gave back all the gains due to weak downstream demand - The market is currently trading based on fundamental logic, and steel prices lack upward drivers as it enters the seasonal off - season [3]

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：处于产能出清阶段，硅价加速探底 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 整理 逻辑：上周工业硅市场继续下跌，部分牌号现货价格有近 250 元/吨降幅。 目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9300-9500 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 10100-10300 元/吨。 期货端：五一节前最后一个交易日，资金避险减仓明显，期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8540，-1.21%，主力单日减仓 28618 手，当前持仓为 16.65 万手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：本周新疆大厂有继续减产计划，据悉目前在开矿热炉 22 台，减产 后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic macro - policy is in a window period, the Sino - US tariff conflict has not improved significantly. Although the iron ore is strong in the real - time, the medium - and long - term pattern of supply is loose. It is recommended to take a short - side approach. The short - term supply - demand relationship improvement supports the price, which moves in a range. It is advisable to short at high prices and avoid chasing long positions [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The global shipment has rebounded overall this period, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has reached around 244 + tons per day (according to the Steel Union), only lower than the same period in 2023 (245.88) and exceeding the highest level of last year (239.94). The high demand in the short - term supports the price, but the profit of blast furnace steel mills has declined due to the falling prices of finished products. The impact of tariffs on exports will gradually appear, and the increase and duration of molten iron output are expected to be limited [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has increased slightly, and pre - holiday restocking will drive up the inventory level. The port inventory has started to accumulate this period because of the significant increase in unloading and warehousing volume. Considering the high domestic demand, the port inventory will remain relatively stable or tend to decline. Later, attention should be paid to the increase in supply shipments [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the 2509 contract this week is 690 - 720 yuan per ton [2]

晨报 工业硅 整理 逻辑：昨日国内工业硅现货价格再次下挫低位，行情弱势难改，现货亏本 出售情况明显，生产压力累积。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9400-9600 元/吨，华 东 421#硅在 10200-10400 元/吨。期货端：昨日期货主力 si2506 增仓下跌明显， 开盘即日内最高，尾盘下跌加速，收盘价为 8540，-2.68%，日增仓 7060 手， 当前主力持仓总数为 19.52 万手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 工业硅：供需矛盾难解价格不断下挫，硅价延续弱势 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 供给端：新疆企业减产计划再度传出，目前尚 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面震荡偏弱 节前注意持仓风险 基本面上，目前钢厂保持较高的生产率，上周日均铁水产量超预期增 至 244.35 万吨，环比前一周增加 4.23 万吨，同比去年增加 15.63 万吨， 焦炭等原料刚性需求较好，叠加关税压力缓和，市场情绪回升，支撑煤焦 提涨情绪。但铁水已处于往年同期高位水平，继续提产空间有限，近期钢 协指出在当前需求下滑、市场下行的背景下，减产已是行业共识，亟须转 化为统一行动，目前部分钢厂发布 5 月份检修计划，预计铁水将在 5 月见 顶，后期存在需求负反馈的风险。供应端，焦化厂利润改善，保持稳步增 产趋势；煤矿端生产积极性同样较高，矿山端焦原煤库存量继续攀升。总 体来看煤焦供应端增量的压力仍存。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：关税形势缓和，但仍存不确定性，持续 ...