Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]

晨报 成材 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 15 日 逻辑：中钢协数据显示，5 月上旬重点钢企粗钢平均日产 220.5 万吨， 环比增长 0.2%；钢材库存量 1606 万吨，环比上一旬增长 5.0%，比上月同 旬增长 0.1%。本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2902 元/吨， 周环比下调 4 元/吨，与 5 月 14 日当前普方坯出厂价格 2980 元/吨相比， 钢厂平均盈利 78 元/吨。5 月 14 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税累计 上调 30，报 2980。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日反弹，两品种均走出 1%以上涨幅。A 股反弹，金融市场回暖， 中美"日内瓦经贸联合声明"发布，宏观层面为市场带来利好，国内股市 和期市均出现上涨。但回归到成材基本面仍建议谨慎对待。目前铁水产量 和钢厂开工率较高，下游实际需求未显现出强势，供强需求的局面仍然存 在。介于当前宏观和基本面情况，建议反弹后逢高试空。 原材料：程 鹏 成材：关注周度基本面变化 钢价震荡反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-626885 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, but there are signs of improvement in the downstream, and the silicon price is approaching the bottom [3] Group 3 Market Conditions - Industrial silicon spot prices fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8490, up 2.72%, with a single - day reduction of 15774 lots. The current position is 146,500 lots, and the trading volume is 16.036 billion yuan [2] Supply Side - Silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong have stable production starts. Under the pressure of falling prices, the enthusiasm of silicon factories to start production is not high. Some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are planning to start production. The ex - factory quotation of silicon enterprises is slightly higher than the futures price, but there is not enough risk - free arbitrage and hedging space. Traders and basis traders are cautious in purchasing, and the overall inventory remains at a high level [2] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable. N - type dense material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and N - type mixed material at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Silicon material enterprises have a strong mentality of maintaining prices, and the prices are temporarily stable [2] - The price of organic silicon DMC is stable. The market's mainstream opening price is 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Large monomer manufacturers still offer discounts in actual transactions and have a strong willingness to ship. The number of inquiries from downstream enterprises has increased, showing a certain purchasing intention [2] - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is improving. Enterprises are producing normally and actively shipping. Favorable macro news has improved the market trading atmosphere [2] Inventory - On May 14, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,531 lots, an increase of 31 lots, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [2]

铁矿石：短期情绪缓和 矿价估值修复 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铁矿石 供应方面：4 月进口环同比增加。4 月铁矿石进口数量 10313.80 万吨，同比从 3 月的-6.5% 升至 1.3%，进口金额同比从 3 月的-21.5%升至-12.2%。5 月份是外矿发运旺季，主流矿山预计 发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求整体处于历史同期高位区，铁水连续两周维持245+万吨/日(钢联口径)， 从成材表需回落以及出口端预期影响，预期铁水上升高度有限且短期需求端见顶概率偏高，但 当前钢厂盈利率水平较高，后期需等待出口端利空验证，预期下周铁水将保持相对高位。库存 方面：从当前国内高企的需求水平来看，5 月份港口库存水平将保持相对平稳或偏向于去化态 势，但整体评估来看，库存整体处于高位，库存高位阶段 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term. Downstream production cuts and high inventory suppress price rebounds, leading to weak and volatile silicon prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the industrial silicon market declined. Manufacturers' quotes were under pressure, and downstream demand had no new growth. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8230, down 0.60%, with a single - day reduction of 9326 lots. It was shifting to the far - month contract, with a current position of 162,300 lots and a trading volume of 13.666 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, some silicon plants in the South are preparing to start furnaces, and some submerged arc furnaces will start from the end of this month to early next month. Some northern factories are struggling at the cost line. If the futures price drops below 8000, some small and medium - sized silicon plants are expected to cut production [1] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are stable, with continuous news of production cuts and acquisitions. The current quotes for N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material are 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The price of organic silicon DMC is stable, with a market - mainstream opening price reference of 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Shandong's main monomer enterprises slightly lowered prices to boost sales, but downstream inquiry enthusiasm was low, and procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The overall demand release was limited, and market transactions weakened with strong bargaining tendencies. Aluminum alloy ingot prices were temporarily stable, the industry's operating rate decreased, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed pre - holiday orders with insufficient post - holiday stocking willingness [1] Inventory - On May 13th, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,494 lots, a decrease of 603 lots. Although the warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease, the total industrial silicon inventory remained at a high level [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

晨报 成材 成材：需求偏低迷 钢价冲高回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：上周（5 月 5 日-5 月 11 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交 （签约）面积总计 145.48 万平方米，环比增长 13.2%，同比下降 17.7%。 奥维云网线上市场监测数据显示，4 月白电各品类中，冰箱、冰柜、洗衣 机、独立式干衣机和空调线上零售额规模同比分别为+1.0%、-0.8%、 +10.8%、+45.0%和+34.8%。5 月 13 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平 均成本为 3334 元/吨，日环比增加 8 元/吨，平均利润为-87 元/吨，谷电 利润为 18 元/吨，日环比增加 12 元/吨。5 月 13 日，唐山迁安普方坯资 源出厂含税下调 20，报 2950。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日冲高回落。5 月 12 日，中美"日内瓦经贸联合声明"的发 布在宏观层面上形成利好，大宗 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：中美会谈超预期 短期估值或修复 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 13 日 逻辑：昨日中美贸易会谈结果超预期，双方均对谈判结果给出高度认同，权益市场以及商 品市场（除贵金属）均出现不同程度拉升，夜盘铁矿石大幅冲高触及前期高点。中美贸易回到 正常轨 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价偏强震荡 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 ...

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：过剩格局短期难改库存仍处高位，硅价弱势震荡 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场弱势运行，受下游需求持续弱影响，市场持续 低迷运行。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 8900-9200 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9800-10100 元/吨。期货端：昨日工业硅主力 2506 合约收盘价格 8320 元，幅度+0.24%，涨 20 元，单日减仓 1216 手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：工业硅市场整体供应宽松，北方厂家有小幅减量，临近丰水期， 北降南增趋势逐渐显现,但受行情价格影响，西南厂家整体开工意愿较弱，供应 端变化不大。受下游需求影响，成交价格有所下探,买方仍占据主导地位,市场 整体成交一般。甘肃产区工业硅开工较稳定，近期受价格影响或有转减产现象 发生。中 ...