Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to real - world factors. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic terminals, the market will trade more based on the fundamental changes of the black - series commodities. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing, and demand is falling from a high level under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is changing from tight - balance to balance, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will still support prices. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly maintain a high - level oscillating trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to a sharp drop in Vale's shipments and non - mainstream shipments, while Australian shipments are relatively stable. The arrival volume is slightly lower than the same period last year. As the previous high - volume shipments continue to arrive at ports, the pressure on the supply side is expected to gradually emerge, and overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2] Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has recovered to the previous level. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years (only lower than 2021). After the high - level blast furnace profits have declined, they are approaching the break - even level, and the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale losses. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and their inventory levels are low. The short - term restocking demand may support iron ore prices [3] Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased simultaneously with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level has increased slightly but is lower than the same period last year. In the middle and late part of the month, as the pre - holiday restocking period begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Later, attention should be paid to whether the National Day restocking intensity exceeds expectations. This period, the port inventory has continued a slight increasing trend. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the out - port volume has significantly increased. At the same time, the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3] Price - Iron ore prices are oscillating within a certain range [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Production Status - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills significantly decreased and the scale of resumption of production increased. There were 5 maintenance production lines, 12 less than the previous week, and 8 resumption production lines, 6 more than the previous week. The production affected by production line maintenance was 257,800 tons last week, and it is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [2]. - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 18.52 percentage points [2]. Price and Market Situation - The price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet was stable at 3,010 yuan/ton last weekend [2]. - Finished products fluctuated and declined last week, with a rebound during Friday's trading session, but the whole week was mainly characterized by downward fluctuations to a recent low. After the military parade, the previously shut - down production capacity gradually recovered, and the hot metal output increased rapidly last week. The demand side changed little, showing a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, which is expected to continue in the short term [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation should be focused on [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating, and the overseas interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Last week, the aluminum price rose strongly. Due to the surge in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and moderate inflation, the Fed may resume interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 [1] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly. The alumina spot price moves narrowly, and the electrolytic aluminum's immediate cost changes little [2] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased by 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in mid - September needs further observation [2] - With the macro interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled and the transition to the peak season, macro and fundamental factors are favorable, and the price is expected to be supported and run at a high level recently. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **成材** -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [3] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷，价格重心下移 [3] **铝锭** -昨日铝价偏强震荡，8月美国PPI意外环比下跌，市场预计美联储本月降息25个基点概率为90% [2] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比上升1个百分点至61.7%，各版块复苏态势向好 [3] -9月8日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存63.10万吨，较上周四增长0.5万吨，较上周一上涨0.8万吨 [3] -宏观降息预期即将兑现，当下过渡到金九银十，宏观与基本面利好共振，预计价格支撑力度加大 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating weakly" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue oscillating weakly, as the current low demand with no short - term improvement and the rising production may put pressure on the price, and the market lacks new drivers, following the industry's fundamental logic [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Cost and Profit - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2991 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets of 2990 yuan/ton on September 10th, the average loss of steel mills is 1 yuan/ton [1] - On September 10th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills is 3342 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 145 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit loss of 49 yuan/ton [1] Real Estate Sales - As of September 10th, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 are 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The total sales in August are 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [1] Market Situation - After the military parade, both supply and demand have recovered. Currently, the low demand and the rising production may bring more pressure on the price [1] Later Concerns - Later concerns include macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [2]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：供给端消息扰动 短期高位震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 供应方面：外矿发运显著回落，主要原因是淡水河谷发运以及非主流回落明显，澳洲发运 相对稳定。到港量水平略低于去年同期，随着前期高发运量持续到港，预计供给端压力将逐步 体现，整体看，供给端支撑力度持续减弱。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量因华北限产环比显著下滑，本期日均铁水产量 228.84（环比 -11.29），当前钢厂盈利率持续回落且高炉利润水平趋近盈亏平衡水平，虽然短流程再度陷入 全面亏损对铁矿石需求存在一定程度保护，但整体看国内需求对价格支撑力度边际减弱。 库存方面：因华北地区检修增多，钢厂端进口矿日耗以及库存环比回落，后期关注十一补 库力度；本期港口库存小幅累积，后期需关注钢厂日耗以及高铁水回升幅度（能否回升至 235 以上），此将决定后期库存累积速率。 观点：市场对美联储降息定价较为充分，预计市场交投重心将侧重于交易现实，随着国内 终 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：情绪降温 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 需求方面，上周钢厂减产预期落地，247 家钢厂高炉日均铁水产量 228.84 万吨，环比下降 11.29 万吨，同比增加 6.23 万吨，整体铁水减产 力度以唐山市场较为明显。据了解，多数钢厂已于 9 月 4 日陆续复产，个 别钢厂延后复产，短期铁水产量趋于回升，但根据往年情况，下半年尤其 四季度，产量下降后通常难以回升到减产前水平；此外，成材处于持续累 库过程中，钢厂利润有所收窄，或对铁水回升形成抑制，后期原料需求面 临考验。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：煤焦供需两端落实减产，但多数减产周期较短，关注复产进程； 市场情绪整体处于降温过程中但仍有反复，价格承压震荡运行。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：海外降息预期升温 铝价高位运行 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。美国商务部周五公布的数据显示， ...