原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 成材 成材：节前规避风险 钢价偏弱整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成材昨日震荡下跌，回吐周一涨幅。此前的粗钢限产传闻一度带动钢 价反弹，但实际下游疲弱的情况则限制了钢价涨幅，且五一假期临近进一 步导致市场趋于谨慎。政治局会议无超预期政策，市场回归基本面逻辑， 后续进入季节性淡季，钢价缺乏向上驱动。 观点：驱动不强，整体承压。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包 ...

晨报 煤焦 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 煤焦：盘面维持低位震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.z ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The current supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is difficult to resolve. As the southwest production area is about to enter the flat and wet seasons in June, the cost support will weaken, and the silicon price will continue to be weak [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On the previous day, the industrial silicon market price was weakly stable. The supply side remained stable for the time being, and some manufacturers intended to cut production. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,200 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract Si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,800, down 0.73%, with a reduction of 5,009 lots. The current position was 188,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7.78 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Some manufacturers intended to conduct maintenance, and the overall supply might decline. The industrial silicon operation in Gansu production area was relatively stable. The price of 97 silicon had fallen below 9,000 yuan/ton, and the operation rate was at a low level. The current quotation of medium - frequency furnace 3303 silicon was 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, and some medium - frequency furnaces were waiting and watching, with difficult short - term improvement in operation [1]. Demand Side - The price of polysilicon declined. Under the retreat of demand, components started to compete at low prices for shipment, intensifying the negative feedback in the industrial chain. The price pressure in each link was gradually transmitted upwards. Under the pressure of lower - than - expected demand and high inventory, the silicon material production cut increased, and the quotation was also lowered. The current quotation of re - feeding material was 36 - 38 yuan/kg, that of dense material was 34 - 37 yuan/kg, that of cauliflower material was 31 - 33 yuan/kg, and that of N - type material was 39 - 41 yuan/kg. The price of organic silicon DMC showed a fluctuating trend, with the market's mainstream opening price referring to 11,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Near the holiday, the rigid demand procurement of downstream enterprises was gradually released, the market inquiry activity increased, and the spot transaction showed a warming trend compared with the previous period. However, industry players were not very optimistic about the future market, and it was expected that the organic silicon market would remain weakly stable in the short term. The price of aluminum alloy ingots was weak. The spot market still showed a situation of weak supply and demand, the downstream demand was difficult to improve, both buyers and sellers were mainly waiting and watching cautiously, and the trading volume was low [1]. Inventory - On April 28, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 69,417 lots, with a single - day decrease of 85 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory was still at a high level [1].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格区间整理 关注氧化铝检修情况 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间运行。投资者谨慎等待美国贸易政策的进一步消 息，并准备迎接一周密集的经济数据，这些数据可能初步表明美国贸易政 策是否正在产生影响。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运 ...

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report's core view is that the steel price will experience a short - term rebound but be under overall pressure [3] Group 3: Summary According to Content - The logic behind the market is that the Politburo meeting proposed to use a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, including possible reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, raise the income of low - and middle - income groups, support corporate financing, help struggling enterprises, build a new real - estate development model, and introduce incremental reserve policies for counter - cyclical adjustment. Last week, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China was 74.93%, a 0.14 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 56.66%, a 0.33 - percentage - point increase. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase; the steel - mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a 2.60 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.93 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year; the daily average pig - iron output was 244.35 tons, a 4.23 - ton increase [2] - Last week, the finished - steel market was in a consolidation phase, with the daily K - line showing a mix of long and short positions. On the night of last Friday, rebar and hot - rolled coils saw a rapid price increase, and there were rumors of a 50 - million - ton reduction in crude - steel production, which were unconfirmed. As the US trade policy eases and the macro - sentiment calms down, the steel - price movement returns to the fundamental logic. Steel mills are actively producing due to good profits, and the pig - iron output continues to rise, exerting some pressure on prices. However, short - term sentiment may drive a steel - price rebound due to the speculation of production - cut rumors [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current absolute price of industrial silicon has reached a historical low, but due to weak end - market demand and high inventory, the industrial silicon market will remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Price - This week, the industrial silicon market showed a downward trend in both spot and futures prices. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon is 9,500 - 9,900 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 10,200 - 10,600 yuan/ton. On Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8,780 yuan, down 0.85%, with an increase of 10,449 lots in positions, the current open interest was 193,100 lots, and the trading volume was 8.356 billion yuan [1]. Supply - In the supply side, small factories in the north have increased their production cut - back efforts, mostly with 12,500KVA furnaces. However, the gradual start - up in the south has offset some of the production reduction, resulting in limited week - on - week fluctuations in weekly supply. The start - up in the southern production areas is slowly recovering, but some small and medium - sized manufacturers still lack confidence in resuming production and are mostly in a wait - and - see mode. In the short term, the supply is still concentrated in the north. A large northern factory plans to conduct maintenance soon, and the production cut situation is unclear. Despite the current low - level start - up, there is still an expectation of increased national production during the wet season [1]. Demand - For the downstream polysilicon plants, the powder single - tender prices released this week decreased by about 500 - 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The supply of silicon material enterprises decreased slightly this week, but with the decline in terminal installation demand, the prices of components and cells dropped rapidly, and market expectations weakened significantly. The price of organic silicon DMC showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the mainstream opening price at 11,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The growth rate of new capacity of organic silicon monomers has slowed down significantly, and monomer plants have taken turns to cut production. The aluminum alloy ingot price is weak, and the spot market shows weak supply and demand, with low trading volume [1]. Inventory - On April 25, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 69,502 lots, a decrease of 859 lots in a single week, but the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a high level [1].

晨报 铝锭 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，上周部分氧化铝厂检修结束，生产恢复，但也有新的检 修减产消息传出，氧化铝运行产能增减并存，总体上，周度运行产能小幅 回升。截至上周四，据 SMM 统计，全国氧化铝运行产能 8362 万吨/年，环 比回升 74 万吨/年。由于检修减产集中发生，接连几周氧化铝运行产能低 于电解铝生产理论需求，氧化铝现货货源收紧。受此影响，氧化铝现 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求承压 盘面维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 28 日 逻辑：上周，贸易关税形势稍有缓和，但对商品价格的 ...

晨报 铁矿石 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 25 日 铁矿石：需求回升至高位 不建议追多操作 逻辑：近期受国际宏观情绪缓和以及国内政策增量预期影响下，黑色系估值水平整体回升， 原材料端价格更为强势。一方面宏观情绪回暖下商品估值修复，另一方面原材料需求持续高位， 铁矿石短期供需偏紧态势支撑价格，但当前对出口端利空计价不充分，预计黑色系继续拉升空 间有限，短期宏观情绪以及政策博弈下的价格反弹为做空提供更好点位，建议偏空对待。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 供应方面：本期全球发运整体回升，澳洲和非主流发运小幅回升，5 月份是外矿发运旺季， 预计发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 ...