从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 工业硅 工业硅：供需双弱库存依旧高位，硅价弱势震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 2025 年 4 月 25 日 逻辑：昨日工业硅市场部分报价有松动，期现双跌走势占主导，供应暂时 维持平 稳。目前华 东通氧 553#硅在 9800-10000 元/吨，华 东 421#硅在 10400-10800 元/吨，部分硅企检修计划传出，实际对月度供给影响量有待追踪。 期货端：昨日工业硅期货主力合约 s12506 收盘价为 8875，-0,11%，今日增仓 132，当前持仓为 18.27 万手，成交额为 65.24 亿元。 证监许可【2011】145 ...

晨报 成材 成材：基本面偏弱 钢价低迷运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：中国央行公告，2025 年 4 月 25 日（周五），中国人民银行将 以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期 限为 1 年期。根据钢联 周度数据，螺纹钢产量下降 0.11 万吨至 229.11 万吨，热卷产量上升 3.1 万吨至 317.5 万吨，五大材总产量上升 3.13 万 吨至 875.84 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 30.83 万吨至 702.33 万吨，热卷总 库存下降 6.86 万吨至 367.69 万吨，五大材总库存下降 50.41 万吨至 1534.27 万吨；螺纹钢表需下降 13.88 万吨至 259.94 万吨，热卷表需上 升 0.2 万吨至 324.36 万吨，五大材总表需下降 22.39 万吨至 926.25 万吨。 本周，唐山 87 条型钢生产线实际开工产线为 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with the price center shifting downwards and showing a weak trend [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term strong sideways oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continuously shift down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum and Related Products - This week, some alumina plants completed their maintenance and resumed production, while new maintenance and production - cut news emerged. The national alumina operating capacity increased slightly week - on - week, reaching 83.62 million tons/year as of Thursday, a 740,000 - ton/year increase from the previous week. Alumina spot prices stopped falling, and there was a slight rebound in the northern region. Short - term prices are expected to move in a sideways pattern [3]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% compared with last week. Each sector showed a differentiated pattern: the primary alloy operating rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 55.4%, but is expected to decline slightly; the aluminum plate and strip maintained at 68.0% but提货 was suppressed by the rising aluminum price; the aluminum cable remained stable at 63.6%, with risks from photovoltaic policies; the aluminum profile showed a structural recovery to 59.5% [3]. - As of April 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 673,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fall to around 620,000 - 650,000 tons by the end of April [3]. - Macro - sentiment has slightly improved. In the later stage of the peak season, downstream inventory is being reduced. Aluminum prices are oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to event - induced fluctuations [4].

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：铁水产量冲高 原料市场情绪改善 逻辑：近日美政府承认美对自我国进口商品关税过高，预计将大幅降 低，美国关税政策态度缓和，大宗商品价格下行压力减轻。现货方面，焦 价首轮提涨落地，存在继续提涨预期，但节奏偏缓。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 基本面上，本周钢厂保持较高的生产率，日均铁水产量超预期增至 244.35 万吨，环比上周增加 4.23 万吨，同比去年增加 15.63 万吨，焦炭 等原料刚性需求较好，叠加关税压力缓和，市场情绪回升，支撑煤焦市场 看涨情绪，但铁水已处于往年同期高位水平，继续提产空间有限，另外钢 材出口受到关税政策的影响可能会在 5 月逐步体现，需求存在转向负反馈 的风险。供应端，焦化厂利润改善，保持稳步增产趋势；煤矿端生产积极 性同样较高，矿山端焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish approach towards the iron ore market [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term supply - demand relationship of iron ore has improved, supporting the price, but the continued upside for the black series is limited. The mid - term supply - demand of iron ore is expected to be loose. The price will mainly move in a range, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level, with molten iron production maintaining around 2.4 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks. However, the profits of blast furnace steel mills have been significantly compressed, and the impact of tariffs on exports will gradually emerge. Although short - term demand remains high due to pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, the rise and duration of molten iron production are expected to be limited [3][4] Inventory - Steel mill inventories continue to decline, and they are expected to maintain low inventory levels and purchase on - demand. Port inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks due to strong domestic steel mill demand and a phased decline in arrivals. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price pressure range for the 2509 contract is 720 - 730 yuan/ton [4]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：风险情绪好转 关注氧化铝运行产能 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 2025 年 4 月 24 日 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期 ...

工业硅：供需矛盾仍存尚未有效去库，硅价弱势震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 工业硅 供给端：宁夏硅企传出检修消息，其他内蒙、山东、陕西、云南开工暂稳， 硅企出厂价格与已套保货的绝对价格拉开差距，库存累积中，市场竞争激烈， 替代品逐渐停炉，97 硅 1503 可成交价已破 9000 元/吨，部分再生硅企业报价 已低于 10000 元/吨，行情焦灼中。贸易方面，贸易商少量低位点价采买，期现 商陆续向远月移仓，实际流向下游的较少。 原材料：程 鹏 需求端：多晶硅价格平稳运行，当前复投料报 37-39 元/千克，致密料报价 35-38 元/千克，菜花料报价 32-34 元/千克，N 型料报价 40-42 元/千克，市场 对硅料企业检修、 ...

成材：情绪回暖 价格小幅反弹 晨报 成材 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 24 日 逻辑：美国总统特朗普当地时间周二（4 月 22 日）在公开场合发表 了讲话，他承认美国目前对自中国进口商品的关税过高，预计税率将大幅 降低。本周唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2919 元/吨，周环比上调 1 元/吨，与 4 月 23 日普方坯出厂价格 2990 元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利 71 元/吨。乘联分会：4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车市场零售 89.7 万辆，同比 去年 4 月同期增长 12%，较上月同期下降 9%，今年以来累计零售 602.4 万辆，同比去期增长 7%。4 月 23 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税累计 上调 50，报 2990 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日反弹，主要是美国在贸易态度上有所缓和，市场情绪回温。 品种基本面变化不大，下游地产令钢价承压，尤其钢厂利润尚可，铁水产 量仍处于较高水平。随着时间推移，后面即将迎来国内会议，存在一定支 撑。 观点：整理运行，整体承压。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从 ...

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场情绪回暖 盘面阶段性反弹 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 基本面上，目前钢厂日均铁水产量维持 240 万吨高位，焦炭等原料刚 性需求尚可，叠加关税压力缓和，市场情绪回升，支撑现货市场看涨，但 铁水已接近往年同期偏高水平，继续提产空间有限，另外后期钢材出口受 到关税政策的影响可能会逐步体现，需求存在转向负反馈的风险，对原料 不利。供应端，焦化厂利润改善，保持稳步小幅增产趋势；煤矿端生产积 极性同样较高，矿山端焦原煤库存量持续攀升，供应端增量的压力仍存。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：关税形势缓和，但仍存不确定性，持续关注。基本面上原料需 求尚可，煤焦供应增量也较为可观，总体库存稳中有增，整体供需形势仍 显宽松，基本面给与价格的上涨支撑相对有限，反弹偏空对待。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任 ...

晨报 成材 成材：需求低迷 价格承压 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 23 日 逻辑：4 月 14 日-4 月 20 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约） 面积总计 134.2 万 m²，环比下降 3.2%，同比下降 18.5%；二手房成交（签 约）面积总计 255.16 万 m²，环比下降 2%，同比增长 19.1%。4 月 22 日， 76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3340 元/吨，平均利润为-116 元/吨，谷电利润为-11 元/吨，环比昨日增加 10 元/吨。克拉克森：3 月 ...