Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][3] - The fundamentals of aluminum ingots are operating steadily, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, showing a relatively strong trend [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region, the shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown period [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingot - In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to bring a further increase in aluminum ingot production, with the daily average output expected to rise further. The spot price of alumina maintains a weak operation, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline month - on - month [3] - This week, the average operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has rebounded to 58.4%, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the second half of the month and approach the annual high. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises is stable at 68%, but it is expected to gradually decline. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remains at 64% and is expected to continue its weak and stable performance in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry has slightly decreased to 53.5% and is expected to be stable but weak in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.3% but may decline due to weak terminal demand. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises has slightly decreased to 58.6% and is expected to continue to decline slightly in October [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Overseas macro - interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The later focus is on the trends of inventory and consumption. The later focus also includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at mines, and the release of consumption [4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1][2][3][4] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. Market sentiment is easily influenced by macro - factor changes, so prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded fluctuately, with coking coal leading the gains, and the night - session continued the strong trend. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions plan to raise coke prices [3] Supply - side Situation - The output of clean coal is in a continuous recovery process. This week, the daily average output of clean coal is 77.9 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7 thousand tons compared with the previous week. Mines have a slight increase in inventory, and the current inventory level at the mine end is low due to pre - holiday downstream restocking. The monthly import volume of coal is rising. In September, about 46 million tons of coal were imported, setting a new high for the monthly import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7% with the decline continuously narrowing. The import volume of coking coal is also rising month by month. After the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 15.5 thousand tons. The change in Mongolian coal imports needs continuous attention [3] Demand - side Situation - This week, the profitability of coke enterprises has shrunk, which supports their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%. Downstream steel still has inventory pressure, especially the inventory of plates is constantly rising. Some steel enterprises in certain regions announced that due to the rise in raw material prices and the decline in finished product prices, steel mill profits are in the red. This week, the daily average pig iron output dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the overall profitability rate is about 55% [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Production Data**: According to weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,500 tons to 3.2184 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 63,600 tons to 8.5695 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 185,900 tons to 6.4105 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 62,900 tons to 4.1919 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 184,600 tons to 15.8226 million tons [1]. - **Apparent Demand Data**: Rebar apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons to 3.1555 million tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 1.3996 million tons to 8.7541 million tons [1]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 40%, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.48%. It is expected that some section steel mills in Tangshan will resume production on October 17th, and the operating rate will rise significantly [1]. - **Sales Policy**: On October 16th, Guangdong Zhongnan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Yangchun New Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Yueyufeng Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. issued a notice on price - limited sales [1]. - **Market Situation**: After reaching a new low yesterday, steel products rebounded slightly. In terms of variety fundamentals, rebar's apparent demand increased rapidly and there was a slight inventory reduction, so its fundamentals were stronger than that of hot - rolled coil. Overall, the demand for steel products remained sluggish, with no improvement in the real estate market and a slowdown in the automotive and home appliance industries. Recent Sino - US trade frictions also led to a negative macro - market. Under the resonance of macro and fundamentals, steel prices were running weakly [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

Group 1 - Report's investment rating for the industry: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Steel prices are running at a low level, facing short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The industry fundamentals remain sluggish, and steel prices are weakly operating under the resonance of macro and fundamentals [1][3] Group 3 - Summary based on related content: - Policy and international situation: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that this is not the right way to get along with China. Hebei Province issues measures to support key industries' environmental performance, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production [2] - Cost and profit: The average hot - metal cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills is 2247 yuan/ton, and the average billet cost is 3006 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the billet price on October 15th, the average loss per ton of steel mills is 86 yuan [2] - Real estate data: The total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to September 2025 are 1055.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In September, the sales are 113.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1.7% [2] - Engineering machinery data: In September, the monthly operating rate of China's main engineering machinery products is 55.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.08 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The operating rate of excavators is 54.5% [2] - Market performance: Steel prices continued to hit new lows yesterday. Rebar is approaching 3000, and hot - rolled coils are approaching 3200 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For成材, the market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with a focus on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - For铝锭, the price is expected to trade in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining - end news [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and carry out maintenance from mid - to late January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday,成材 prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] 铝锭 - Macroscopically, traders analyze Fed Chairman Powell's speech to find clues about possible future interest rate cuts during the US government shutdown. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little recently, employment is basically stable, but there are signs of weakness such as more layoffs and reduced spending by low - and middle - income families [2] - Fundamentally, the profit of alumina plants is further compressed, high - cost production capacity turns to losses and stops production. After the rainy season ends, bauxite shipments from Guinea resume, weakening the support for ore prices [3] - From October, some northern electrolytic aluminum enterprises expect an increase in the direct supply ratio of molten aluminum due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, which will keep the aluminum ingot output low and reduce the market supply of spot aluminum ingots, supporting aluminum prices from the supply side [3] - In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing sectors adjusted slightly due to the National Day holiday, in line with seasonal characteristics but with obvious internal differentiation. The operating rate of aluminum cables declined, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips dropped by 1 percentage point to 68.0%, and the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased slightly [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of iron ore has dropped significantly, and short - term fluctuations have intensified. Although recent policy disturbances have increased, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of shrinking industrial chain profits and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices, but high domestic hot - metal production supports the price. The price will run in a range, and the inventory accumulation pressure at ports in October is not large [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for price decline - The sharp drop in iron ore price is mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, which reduces market risk appetite and causes a collective decline in the black series. Also, the market has over - expected the impact of the US ship "special port fee" policy, while the proportion of US ship iron ore transportation is low and the increase in transportation cost is limited [3] Supply - The overseas ore shipment has decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia has decreased significantly, while that of Brazil is relatively stable. The arrival volume has reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continues to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level. The daily average hot - metal output this period is 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). Although the blast furnace steel mills have continued a slight decline, high hot - metal production supports the iron ore price [4] Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton [4] Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. However, market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factors, causing prices to run under pressure [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly. Although the risk of Sino - US tariff conflicts has no obvious direct impact on coking coal and coke exports, it disturbs market sentiment and increases the probability of price decline [2] - After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises have been repaired. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. During the holiday, the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected, but the overall coke shipment was in order [2] - Steel mills'开工 remains at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining above 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The monthly import volume of coal is increasing. In September, coal imports were about 46 million tons, setting a new high for the single - month import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%, and the decline continued to narrow. The import volume of coking coal also increased month by month [3] - It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolia will increase the transportation capacity of coal through automated loading and unloading, adjusting the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000. It will be in trial operation for one month after the National Day, and the specific situation needs continuous tracking [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The steel price is in low - level operation, with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the coil - rebar spread [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Information Industry Data - In early October 2025, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.88 million tons, an 8.2% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.6% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The World Steel Association expects the global steel demand in 2025 to be the same as in 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. China's steel demand decline will slow down, while developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will see strong growth, and European steel demand will have a long - awaited recovery [2]. Industry Events - Facing the challenges of "high costs, low prices, and widespread industry losses", the Sichuan - Chongqing steel industry held an anti - involution seminar on October 13, focusing on "anti - involution, price stabilization, and promoting synergy" [2]. Market Conditions - The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday, with a slight rebound in the afternoon and hitting a new low during the session. The low - level downstream demand in the industry still exists. The main short - term factor dragging down steel prices is the Sino - US tariff dispute, which has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets and varieties, including the black - colored commodities [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be concerned [3].