Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with its price center of gravity shifting downwards and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Steel Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the market is volatile, and investors are focusing on the key employment report on Friday. Previous data shows a softening labor market, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. The increase in initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [1]. - On the supply side, the replacement capacity continues to be released, and the weekly output increased slightly to 847,300 tons. On the cost side, the full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 16,618 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit narrowed to around 3,991 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [2]. - On the demand side, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. The "Golden September" effect is emerging, and each sector is recovering well. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly by 0.2% to 56.6%, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 1.2 percentage points to 68.6%, and the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased by 1 percentage point to 64.8% [2]. - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is that the steel industry is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price rebounded slightly due to the raw material drive, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory rising this week. The supply decline was mainly affected by the parade, and with recent resumptions of production in many places, the supply is expected to increase. However, the demand has changed little and is difficult to reverse in the short - term, leading to the price continuing to run weakly [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents - **Production Data**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union, the production of rebar decreased by 18,800 tons to 2.1868 million tons, the production of hot - rolled coils decreased by 105,000 tons to 3.1424 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 239,600 tons to 8.6065 million tons [2] - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 166,100 tons to 6.4 million tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 88,800 tons to 3.7434 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 328,200 tons to 15.007 million tons [2] - **Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 21,400 tons to 2.0207 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 153,600 tons to 3.0536 million tons, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 299,400 tons to 8.2783 million tons [2] - **Production Resumption in Tangshan**: Starting from September 4th, independent section steel mills in Tangshan gradually resumed normal production. As of the morning of September 4th, the survey showed that the operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 49%, an increase of 14% compared to before the resumption [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies; supply - side production reduction situation; downstream demand situation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external macro - narrative is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the medium - term, which support the valuation of the black series. In the short - term, terminal demand is weakening, iron ore supply is steadily rising, demand is falling from a high level, and the overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from tight to balanced. Short - term iron ore lacks upward drivers and is expected to follow the sector. The price will fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Supply - Outer - mine shipments maintain a high growth rate. Australian and Brazilian shipments have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipments reached a five - year high, and non - mainstream shipments have been higher than last year's level for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than last year, and supply pressure is expected to gradually increase [2]. Demand - China's daily average pig iron output has slightly declined to 240.13 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.62). The steel mill profitability rate is continuously falling, and blast furnace profits are approaching the break - even point. With the parade - related production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of short - process steelmaking protects iron ore demand to some extent, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills has declined but remains high. The steel mill inventory has decreased due to more maintenance in North China. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and with high daily consumption and high pig iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with no significant pressure to accumulate [2]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal production has decreased temporarily, but the reduction is not sustainable and is expected to resume production soon; the overall market sentiment is cooling, and prices are under pressure [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices were generally weak and volatile, and the weakness continued at night. The 09 contract entered the delivery month. With weak buying and delivery intentions, the futures price changed from premium to flat or even discount, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources at some coal mines had weak transactions, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, coke enterprises in Hebei started the 8th round of price increase, but mainstream steel mills had no response, while some regional steel mills planned price cuts, and the market entered a game period [3] Supply Side - This week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi concentrated on shutdown and maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines and the cancellation of night shifts in some areas led to a significant decline in production. However, since most coal mines had a short shutdown time, many coal mines resumed production on September 4, and it is expected that the coking coal production in the main producing areas will recover rapidly next week [3] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills has remained above 60%, and the willingness for self - reduction is low. During the military parade, there was an expectation of production reduction for blast furnaces of steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei. From the survey, the production - limiting period was mainly from August 31 to September 3, with a production - limiting range of about 40%, significantly lower than the previous similar major events. The production - limited steel mills are expected to resume production one after another after the 4th [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having an oscillatory and weakly downward trend [3] Report's Core View - The steel price of finished products is expected to run in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner, with supply pressure increasing after enterprises resume production post - parade, while downstream demand remains weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Construction Funds and Steel Mill Costs - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, resulting in an average loss of 21 yuan/ton compared with the ex - factory price of 2,950 yuan/ton on September 3 [2] Steel Mill Orders - As of August 31, the steel billet hand - held order volume of sample steel mills was 1.267 million tons, a 27% increase (270,000 tons) from the previous survey. In terms of order receipt, domestic trade orders were 668,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons, and direct export orders were 599,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons [2] Construction Site Construction Dynamics - A total of 66 traders, sub - terminals, and downstream enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region stopped work from late August to September 4, and are expected to resume work on the afternoon of September 3 and September 4 [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils closed with small negative lines, with the overall center of gravity shifting downward [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The finished product is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting down and a weak performance [2][4] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a production resumption time around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished product continued to fluctuate downward, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [4] - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation. Factors to be concerned about are macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million, which supported investors' expectations of the Fed's monetary policy relaxation [3] - In September, the spot price of alumina is weakly running. The supply side has a slight increase in operating capacity and output, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise in September. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry changes little, and the high profit remains. The demand side shows signs of recovery in the downstream weekly start - up rate as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches [4] - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - The view is that the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Factors to be concerned about are macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views -成材震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期高位震荡 [2][4] -成材价格重心持续下移，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价关注宏观情绪、矿端消息、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产时间预计在正月初十一至十六左右 [3][4] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日已停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -9月氧化铝现货价格弱势运行，运行产能预计小幅增长，铝水比例存回升预期 [4] -电解铝行业总成本变化小，行业高利润依旧 [4] -8月下旬下游周度开工率复苏迹象明显，铝型材龙头企业开工率环比升1.5个百分点至52%，铝线缆行业开工率回升至63.8% [4] -8月28日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存62.0万吨，较周一增0.4万吨，环比上周一增2.4万吨 [4] -铝锭绝对价回落，接货情绪好转，但未达大规模补库状态，累库与高铝价压制现货升水 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines and dragging down the market. In the short - term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The 09 contract entered the delivery month with weak buying and delivery interest, so the futures price moved from premium to flat or discount, dragging down other contracts. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources had weak sales, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises initiated the 8th price increase, but most steel mills didn't respond, and some planned price cuts, resulting in a market game [3] - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi's main production areas cut production due to geological issues in Lvliang and stricter safety inspections in Linfen. Next week, coal production is likely to rise slightly, but before September 3, main production areas will focus on safety, and some mines may have short - term production cuts [3] - Steel mills' profitability rate remains above 60%, with low willingness to cut production. During the parade, steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei are expected to cut production from August 31 to September 3, with a 40% reduction, lower than previous similar events. They are expected to resume production after September 4 [3] Attention Points - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产情况 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the continuous weakening of the finished product and coking coal futures prices, iron ore prices made up for the decline. The support on the supply side of iron ore has weakened, and the high - toughness on the demand side has been shaken. The relatively strong pattern may be broken, and it is expected that iron ore will continue to weaken with the sector in the short term [2][3] - The external macro - narrative is more positive, there are still expectations for increments in domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage, which support the medium - term valuation of the black series. In the short term, the terminal demand is weakening, the supply of iron ore is steadily rising, the demand is falling from a high level and the short - term strengthening expectation is weak. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance, and short - term iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and the price is expected to follow the sector [3] - The price fluctuates weakly in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (Contract 2601) is in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has continued to maintain a high growth rate. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipment has reached a five - year high, and the shipment level of non - mainstream mines has been higher than that of last year for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than that of last year. With the continuous arrival of shipments, the supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the supply - side support continues to weaken [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has slightly declined, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.13 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.62). The profitability rate of steel mills is continuously falling, and the blast furnace profit is approaching the break - even point. With the military parade production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of the short - process steelmaking protects the iron ore demand to some extent, the support of domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ores at steel mills has declined but remains at a high level. The inventory at steel mills has decreased month - on - month due to more overhauls in North China. The port inventory has slightly declined this period. With the current high daily consumption and high pig iron output supporting demand, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is not significant [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝预计价格短期高位震荡 [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，个别钢厂预计1月20日后停产，停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2][3] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [3] - 成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [3] - 后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] 2.铝 - 宏观上投资者等待美国就业市场数据影响美联储货币政策预期，美联储降息预期升温等营造利多氛围，但国内政策托底传导至实际消费需时间 [2] - 9月氧化铝现货价格弱势运行，运行产能预计小幅增长，供应端运行产能稳中小增、产量微幅增长，9月铝水比例存回升预期，成本方面行业总成本变化小、高利润依旧 [3] - 需求端“金九银十”旺季临近，下游周度开工率复苏，铝型材龙头企业开工率环比提升1.5个百分点至52%，铝线缆行业开工率回升至63.8%，预计9月后开工率持续上行 [3] - 8月28日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存62.0万吨，较本周一增加0.4万吨，环比上周一增加2.4万吨，淡季累库与高铝价压制现货升水 [3] - 关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [4]