Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Recently, supported by the bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both futures and spot prices have strengthened in resonance. Short - term technical corrections on the market should be noted [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On July 15, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated. On the spot side, steel mills in some regions have accepted the first round of coke price hikes [3] - In June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size in China was 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with the growth rate 1.2 percentage points slower than that in May. The daily output was 14.04 million tons. From January to June, the output was 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the coke output was 41.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.14%. From January to June, the cumulative coke output was 248.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.33% [3] Fundamental Analysis - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall resumption process was relatively slow. The regional, phased and structural supply - demand mismatch of coking coal was not effectively alleviated. With the rising macro - expectations and the release of speculative demand, coking coal prices continued to rise, and the mine pit - mouth inventory continued to decline significantly [4] - From July 11th to 15th, due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, the border ports were temporarily closed and are expected to gradually resume on the 16th [4] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials, and the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level. However, the hot metal output last week dropped below 2.4 million tons. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' production reduction [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term strategy is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [3] 3. Summary by Related Information Industry Data - There are over 300 electric furnaces in production nationwide with a capacity of nearly 200 million tons, and the proportion of electric furnace steel output to crude steel output has been around 10% in recent years [2] - In June, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - On July 14, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with an average profit loss of 92 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of 11 yuan/ton [2] Market Conditions - Yesterday, steel prices fluctuated. Favorable industrial policies boosted market sentiment, leading to a short - term continuous rebound in steel prices. The daily trading volume of building materials returned to over 100,000 tons, and the rise in raw materials also supported steel prices [2] - Currently, downstream demand has not changed much and remains weak [2] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try shorting on rebounds after the price rises [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Black Market**: The rebound is expected to continue, but it is advisable to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot and futures markets are strengthening jointly. Short - term price fluctuations after a rapid rebound should be noted. Key factors to watch include coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production at steel mills, and changes in imported coal customs clearance [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are expected to follow the trend of the black market. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4th to July 11th, the prices of most black futures and spot products increased. For example, the futures price of rebar (RB2510) rose from 3072 to 3133, a 1.99% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose from 3170 to 3220, a 1.58% increase [7]. 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Rebar and Other Products**: Last week, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased. The price increase was mainly due to the news of production restrictions in Shanxi. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the rebound may continue, but shorting at high prices is recommended [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment is warming up, and the prices are rising. The supply - demand mismatch in coking coal has not been effectively resolved. Coke prices are rising due to increased coking coal costs. Attention should be paid to coal production, steel mill production, and imported coal customs clearance [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: Overseas tariff policies and domestic supply - side news affect the market. The supply of silicomanganese is slightly expanding, while that of ferrosilicon is slightly decreasing. Demand is weakening, and prices are expected to follow the black market [11]. 03 Variety Data - **Finished Products** - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42 million tons; the apparent demand was 221.50 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.37 million tons. The total inventory was 540.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.84 million tons [13][20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the production was 323.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.00 million tons; the apparent demand was 322.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.86 million tons. The total inventory was 345.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 million tons [28][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: The total inventory last week was 930.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan [50][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The total inventory last week was 2571.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56 million tons. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 76.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 million tons [57][67]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Silicomanganese**: The weekly production of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises last week was 182,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,170 tons. The inventory on July 11th was 220,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [90][98]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly production of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises last week was 98,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The inventory on July 11th was 70,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,240 tons [92][98].

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty and slight inventory accumulation, prices are expected to move within a range in the short term, and future attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [11] - For zinc, supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put upward pressure; attention should be paid to news development [13] - For tin, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the downward pressure will increase in the medium term [14] Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4 to July 11, 2025, copper futures (CU2508) decreased by 1.63%, aluminum futures (AL2508) increased by 0.29%, zinc futures (ZN2508) decreased by 0.13%, tin futures (SN2508) decreased by 1.24%, and nickel futures (NI2508) decreased by 0.72%. Spot copper prices decreased by 2.18%, aluminum by 0.05%, zinc by 1.75%, tin by 0.47%, and nickel by 1.05% [8] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Trade tensions increased due to new tariffs, and there was a possibility of Fed rate - cuts. Nationally, the alumina operating rate decreased, and overseas, Guinea imposed shipping requirements on bauxite exports. Alumina inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak [10] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term [11] - **Zinc** - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were stable, and import fees increased. The zinc ingot import window remained closed. Downstream galvanizing开工率 increased, and zinc inventory rose [13] - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put pressure [13] - **Tin** - **Logic**: Myanmar's supply progress was slower than expected, causing a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand showed signs of phased contraction [14] - **Viewpoint**: Slightly stronger in the short term, but downward pressure increases in the medium term [14] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - **Price**: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton; low - grade at 570 yuan/ton. Imported bauxite index average price was 73.72 dollars/ton, down 0.58 dollars/ton [18] - **Port Volume**: Bauxite arrival volume was 420.49 million tons, up 8.74 million tons; departure volume was 429.2 million tons, up 18.94 million tons [21] - **Alumina** - **Price and Profit**: Domestic price in Henan was 3150 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cost was 2844.4 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan/ton; profit in Shanxi was 225.05 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [24] - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Cost and Spread**: Total cost was 16571.68 yuan/ton, up 101.54 yuan/ton; regional spread (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 10 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [26] - **Downstream Processing**:开工率 of aluminum cable, foil, plate, profile, primary and secondary aluminum alloy showed different changes [29][31] - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including保税区, social, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [36][37] - **Spot and Basis**: Different basis data for SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed [42][45] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of Shanghai aluminum futures changed [46] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - **Price and Processing Fee**: Domestic zinc concentrate price was 17088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; domestic processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; import processing fee was 66.25 dollars/dry ton, up 1 dollar/dry ton [50] - **Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory**: Production profit was 4088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; import loss was 864.57 yuan/ton, down 152.17 yuan/ton; import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 80,000 physical tons, down 10,000 tons [55] - **Refined Zinc** - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including social,保税区, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [58] - **Galvanizing** - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production was 345,545 tons, up 19,495 tons;开工率 was 58.29%, up 1.81%; raw material inventory was 14,370 tons, up 1,110 tons; finished product inventory was 341,700 tons, up 9,300 tons [61] - **Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread**: Different basis and spread data changed [64][68] Tin - **Refined Tin** - **Production and开工率**: Yunnan and Jiangxi's combined production was 0.262 million tons, up 0.05 million tons;开工率 was 54.07%, up 1.03% [72] - **Tin Ingot** - **Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7097 tons, down 101 tons; social inventory was 9644 tons, down 110 tons [75] - **Tin Concentrate** - **Processing Fee**: Processing fees in different regions remained unchanged but were lower year - on - year [77] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Import profit was 12005.23 yuan/ton, down 2059.74 yuan/ton [78] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 600 yuan/ton [82]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场氛围偏暖 期现共振走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格延续震荡反弹走势，现货市场跟涨，多地 焦企开始首轮提涨。近日市场情绪持续回暖，利多传闻不断，刺激价格走 强，但仍有待关注相关政策、措施实际落地情况。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 观点：近期在市场看涨氛围烘托下，叠加供需压力稍有缓解，期现货 共振走强。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Short - term observation or short - selling on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 50.36%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.63 percentage points year - on - year; the average operating rate was 63.59%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 1.16 percentage points year - on - year [2] - On July 11, it was stated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 16 million this year, and the proportion of new energy vehicle sales is expected to exceed 50% [2] - After a brief adjustment, finished products soared again on Thursday last week driven by the news of production restrictions in Shanxi. Market sentiment warmed up, and the daily trading volume of building materials rebounded to over 100,000 tons. Driven by macro anti - involution policies, the fundamentals of finished products improved to some extent last week, mainly due to varying degrees of decline in the supply of the five major steel products. The rise in raw materials also supported steel prices. Currently, the improvement in downstream demand is not obvious. It is recommended to observe in the short term and try short - selling on rebounds [2] - Later, attention should be paid to macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [3]

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：国内累库继续 铝价区间调整 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间偏强运行。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和 其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。美联储理事沃勒周四 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term approach is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market News - US Commerce Secretary may meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that both sides are in close communication at multiple levels on economic and trade concerns [3] - Shanxi's steel production restriction notice is still in the oral communication stage, with a projected production cut ratio of 10% - 13%, but the specific schedule is unclear [3] Production Data - Rebar production decreased by 4420 tons to 216660 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5000 tons to 323140 tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 12440 tons [3] Inventory Data - Rebar total inventory decreased by 4840 tons to 540370 tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 630 tons to 345560 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 350 tons to 1339580 tons [3] Demand Data - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 3370 tons to 221500 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1860 tons to 322510 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 12190 tons to 873070 tons [3] Market Analysis - Steel prices rose yesterday due to production restriction news, decreased production of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and rising raw material prices [3] - Inventory decline is limited, and building materials may enter the summer inventory accumulation period due to hot and rainy weather, with overall demand changing little [3] - Before demand improves, short - term strategy is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [3][4] Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with prices continuing to move downward in a volatile fashion, hitting new recent lows, and the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates. There are pressures on the downstream start - up rates, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level range in the short - term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting boosted market optimism, with most policymakers believing that interest rate cuts later this year are appropriate. However, policymakers are still worried about the inflationary pressure brought by Trump's tariffs, and only a few officials think a rate cut could happen as early as this month [2]. - As of Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina has decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% compared to last week, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi undergoing maintenance and a decline in operating production capacity. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises' factories increased by 81,000 tons [3]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% compared to last week [3]. - On July 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the ingot - casting volume of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the arrival volume is still low, resulting in a short - term reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [3].