Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The unexpected easing of Sino-US trade relations has led to an upward revision of iron ore valuation. With the suspension of 90-day (24% reciprocal tariffs), the market has adjusted its expectations of declining exports. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discounts, and inventory reduction, resulting in greater price elasticity [3]. - In the short term, the trading focus tends to be on strong reality and sentiment repair. With the domestic macro - policy in a vacuum and weak expectations of incremental policies, the market is expected to be more dominated by macro - sentiment repair, and the influence of fundamentals will decrease [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The supply of foreign mines has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. In May, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment trend, with the supporting force on the supply side gradually weakening [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a historically high level. Iron water production has declined to 244.8 (-0.87) on a month - on - month basis, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, with a high profit rate for steel mills and an upward - revised export expectation, iron water production is expected to decline at a high level with a gentle slope, having a small impact on prices in the short term [4]. Inventory - Given the high domestic demand in May, port inventory is expected to remain stable or decline. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased inventory reduction at a high level cannot provide upward momentum [5]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the price center shifting upward periodically. The pressure range for the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range for the outer - market FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the potential peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the prices are currently treated as a rebound with a bearish outlook [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly, hitting new lows continuously. The first - round reduction of coke spot prices has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction [2]. Fundamental Situation - Most coking enterprises in the region maintain their previous production - limiting status, with normal production rhythms. Some coking enterprises have slightly increased production. The recent shipment situation has improved compared to before, and most coking plants keep their coke inventories at a low level [2]. Downstream Demand - Last week, the steel mill's hot metal production was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 million tons. There is a trend of peak - to - decline in hot metal production recently. Some steel mills have plans for production reduction and maintenance, and due to relevant policies, steel mills' procurement is cautious, mainly on a demand - based basis [2]. Mongolian Coal Import - After the port inventory pressure has been continuously alleviated, the import of Mongolian coal has quickly recovered to the level of the same period last year. However, some imported Mongolian coal has become "dead stock" in the warehouse. Given the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the recent recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance has put obvious pressure on the market [3].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格： 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，矿端扰动再起，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为，此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示，自 3 月 19 日以来， 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势，此后亏损情况一直持续 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests treating the market with a bearish bias in a range-bound manner and still considering shorting on rebounds [2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro sentiment stabilizes, the industry's fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand exerts pressure on prices. Currently, steel mills have decent profits, with overall high operating rates and production levels. However, downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information - From January to April, China's cumulative crude steel production was 345.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2] - On May 19, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,326 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton compared to last Friday. The average profit was a loss of 95 yuan per ton, and the valley electricity profit was 10 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, the total sales of various graders were 756 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. Domestic sales were 140 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%, and export volume was 616 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2] - The finished products fluctuated and declined yesterday, and the market did not change much [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for industrial silicon has not improved, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. In the short term, the silicon price will continue to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the overall weak situation of industrial silicon spot prices remained unchanged. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, and there was no new demand. Currently, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is between 8,700 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is between 9,600 - 10,100 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main contract si2507 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8,130, a decrease of 1.87%. The intraday trading volume was 16,616 lots, with a total of 155,000 lots and a turnover of 8.519 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, the prices of silica and silicon coal in the raw material segment have weakened, reducing the production cost of manufacturers. With the approaching of the wet season and the resumption of production of previously shut - down manufacturers, the output may increase slightly. Traders are inquiring about goods, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting. Some low - priced goods have had small - volume transactions. The production in the Gansu production area is relatively stable, and the output of 97 - silicon continues to remain low. The short - term start - up is difficult to improve. The operating rate of medium - frequency furnaces is low, and the prices are still at a low level, making it difficult for manufacturers to resume production [1] Demand Side - The polysilicon market continues to operate weakly. Currently, the terminal demand is significantly weak, and downstream procurement is becoming more cautious. The weekly trading volume remains flat, and the market stalemate remains unchanged. The price of organic silicon is temporarily stable. After some large monomer manufacturers made a tentative price increase before the festival, they sold goods with a small discount, and the number of inquiries has increased. The price of aluminum alloy ingots fluctuates. Large manufacturers have slightly reduced their inventories, and enterprises with low inventories are more willing to hold prices, making the market circulation slightly looser [1] Inventory - On May 19, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,097 lots, a single - day decrease of 287 lots. The total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：矿端扰动再起 成本端支撑走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 19 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations, the short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality and emotional repair. With the short - term domestic macro - policy in a complete vacuum, the expectation of incremental policies is weak, demand has basically peaked, and as the supply side continues to recover, it is expected to be more dominated by macro - emotional repair in the short term, with the influence of fundamentals decreasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - The unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations has led to an upward revision of the valuation of the black series. The suspension of 90 - day (24% reciprocal tariffs) has strengthened the behavior of seizing exports to the US, and the market has revised its expectation of export decline. The price of the black series has risen collectively, and the price of iron ore has rebounded more strongly due to high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion [3]. Supply - The overall shipment of foreign mines is stable, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. May is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and the shipments of mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the supporting force on the supply side weakening marginally [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The hot metal has decreased to 244.8 (- 0.87) month - on - month, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, the profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the hot metal will decline at a high level with a relatively low downward slope, and the short - term impact on prices is small [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be depleted. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the overall price still in a range - bound pattern and the price center shifting upwards periodically. The price pressure range of the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the steel price may have a shock rebound, and it is advisable to try shorting at high prices after the rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - In early May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the steel inventory was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.1% increase from the same period last month. This week, the average cost of billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of 2,980 yuan/ton on May 14, the average profit of steel mills was 78 yuan/ton. On May 14, the ex - factory price of common square billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 30 yuan, reaching 2,980 yuan [1] - The finished products rebounded yesterday, with both varieties rising more than 1%. The A - share market rebounded, the financial market recovered, and the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the US was released, bringing macro - level benefits. However, the fundamental situation of finished products still requires cautious treatment. Currently, the molten iron output and steel mill operating rates are high, while the actual downstream demand is not strong, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand still exists [1] 原材料 (Raw Materials) - The view is that there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, but there are signs of improvement in the downstream, and the silicon price is approaching the bottom [3] Group 3 Market Conditions - Industrial silicon spot prices fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8490, up 2.72%, with a single - day reduction of 15774 lots. The current position is 146,500 lots, and the trading volume is 16.036 billion yuan [2] Supply Side - Silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong have stable production starts. Under the pressure of falling prices, the enthusiasm of silicon factories to start production is not high. Some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are planning to start production. The ex - factory quotation of silicon enterprises is slightly higher than the futures price, but there is not enough risk - free arbitrage and hedging space. Traders and basis traders are cautious in purchasing, and the overall inventory remains at a high level [2] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable. N - type dense material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and N - type mixed material at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Silicon material enterprises have a strong mentality of maintaining prices, and the prices are temporarily stable [2] - The price of organic silicon DMC is stable. The market's mainstream opening price is 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Large monomer manufacturers still offer discounts in actual transactions and have a strong willingness to ship. The number of inquiries from downstream enterprises has increased, showing a certain purchasing intention [2] - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is improving. Enterprises are producing normally and actively shipping. Favorable macro news has improved the market trading atmosphere [2] Inventory - On May 14, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,531 lots, an increase of 31 lots, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [2]