Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the soda ash futures are expected to continue the pattern of price pressure. With the continuous increase in capacity utilization and output on the supply side, high inventory of manufacturers, and a decline in the shipment rate, the spot pressure is significant. The marginal cost support is weakening, and the profit of the dual - alkali process has shrunk significantly. The downstream demand lacks strong support, as the inventory of float glass has increased and the real estate recovery is slow. Under the background of strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory, the main contract SA2601 may continue to be under pressure. If the weekly output remains at 700,000 tons and the inventory reduction is less than expected, there is still a risk of breaking through the lower limit even at a historically low price [8][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated between 1,298 - 1,388 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on August 1, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 fell by 1 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 0.08%, closing at 1,332 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.41%, compared with 80.27% last week. Among them, the light soda ash production was 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 89.20%, a week - on - week increase of 2.80%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 6.06%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 6.10% [7][9][11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,865,100 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from Monday, or 0.72%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 69,300 tons, or 3.86%. The inventory of light soda ash was 717,600 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1,147,500 tons. The inventory at the same period last year was 1,143,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 721,200 tons, or 63.05% [7][14]. - **Shipment**: According to Longzhong Information on August 7, this week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali process for soda ash in China was 56.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - alkali process for soda ash (per two tons) was 68.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [18][21]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Output**: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 31st. The national float glass production from August 1 - 7, 2025, was 1,117,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94% [24]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million weight boxes, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [29]. 3.4 Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 20 yuan/ton, or 3.06%, to 673 yuan/ton. The price of原盐 - 井矿盐in East China remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased to varying degrees, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass decreased by 36 yuan/ton, or 2.91%, to 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of photovoltaic glass (2.0) increased by 1 yuan/square meter, or 10%, to 11 yuan/square meter. The price of caustic soda (32% alkali) in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, the price of ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) in Henan remained unchanged at 420 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 80 yuan/ton, or 3.28%, to 2,360 yuan/ton [36].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. The spot market also showed weakness, with prices in both the main production and sales areas dropping. The imbalance between supply and demand in the egg market has intensified, with high supply and weak demand due to factors such as the increase in newly - laid hens, high - temperature weather, and low consumer confidence. Although the market demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase of eggs during the peak season may be weaker than expected due to the pressure on the breeding side [5][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. By the end of last Friday, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 153,259 lots and an open interest of 203,664 lots [15]. (2) Spot Price - In the main production areas, the average egg price last week was 3.01 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty, or 7.10%. In the main sales areas, the average price was 3.04 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 yuan per catty, or 6.17%. The decline in prices in the production areas affected the sales areas, and downstream procurement became more cautious [19]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks was 3.11 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 yuan per chick, or 4.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The current market is characterized by an abundant supply of chicken chicks and weak demand [23]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.71 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 yuan per catty, or 3.22%. The decline in egg prices hit the confidence of farmers, increasing the willingness to sell, but the terminal demand was weak [27]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: In July, the national inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.292 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.04%. The number of newly - laid hens has increased month - on - month [32]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of the representative market in the main production areas was 6216.03 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.68%. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and downstream purchasers are cautious [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens at the sample points was 452,200, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. Some farmers chose to slaughter old hens, but most still maintained a pressure - stocking state [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Sales Area Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume in the Beijing and Guangdong markets decreased last week. In Beijing, the trading activity was low in the first half of the week and increased slightly at the end of the week. In Guangdong, the purchasing enthusiasm increased in the middle and late weeks [45]. - **Sales Area Sales Volume**: As of last Thursday, the weekly egg sales volume was 6003.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%. The sales volume was slightly boosted by the downstream replenishment demand [49]. (3) Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.89 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.15 days. The egg inventory increased week - on - week due to increased supply and weak demand [53]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, or 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.53 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan per catty, or 82.76%. The increase in soybean meal prices pushed up the feed cost [57]. 3. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the increase in egg prices during the peak season. Although the demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase may be weaker than expected. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds in the medium term [8][58][59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, the 2601 contract of rebar rose 0.49%. Recently, the sentiment in the black market has returned to rationality, and steel prices are mainly stable and fluctuating. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips and oscillations [4][5][34][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures price**: Rebar futures main contract daily K - line chart [7][8] - **Spot price**: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [10][13] - **Basis and spread**: Rebar basis (active contract) [14][19] Important Market Information - On August 8, six major exchanges issued an announcement on matters related to algorithmic trading. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's statement about possible secondary tariffs on China [17] Supply - side Situation - Tangshan blast furnace operating rate [18] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, down 2.2% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel distribution industry was 49.8, up 4.2% month - on - month [23][25] Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, up 0.29% month - on - month and 3.54% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, down 0.15% month - on - month and up 3.07% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4%, up 3.03% month - on - month and 63.21% year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 240.32 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and up 8.62 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of August 7, rebar production was 221.18 million tons, up 4.79%; rebar inventory at mills was 168.2 million tons, up 3.73%; rebar inventory at social warehouses was 388.48 million tons, up 1.13%; rebar apparent demand was 210.79 million tons, up 3.63%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 321.85 million tons, up 19.14 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 105, up 15 [33] 后市展望 - Recently, the sentiment in the black market has returned to rationality, and steel prices are mainly stable and fluctuating [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips and oscillations [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend [5][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, ranging from around 20,405 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,825 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures oscillated, with the contract price ranging from 2,551 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [13] 3.2现货分析 - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of August 8, 2025, the premium/discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3.3供需情况 - In July 2025, the total production capacity of alumina was 113 million tons, the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.75% [22] - As of August 7, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 31,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 16,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 15,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22] 3.4库存情况 - As of August 8, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,614 tons, a decrease of 3,913 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 470,575 tons, an increase of 1,075 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 3.03% [27] - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 506,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous day [27] 3.5宏观面、基本面分析 - In July, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%. The production index and new order index in the manufacturing PMI were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, both lower than the previous month. Manufacturing production activities continued to expand, but market demand slowed down. Industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and computer and communication electronic equipment had active production and demand [4][36] - The operating rate of alumina plants continued to rise, the in - production capacity of alumina gradually increased, and the alumina inventory remained at a low level. The output of aluminum products increased year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased rapidly for several consecutive months. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased slightly, the LME aluminum inventory continued to rise, and the domestic implicit market inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly [4][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the weakening of the previous macro - impacts, the rubber market is gradually returning to its fundamentals. Although the terminal demand has improved recently, the supply side is under pressure due to better weather in major production areas and falling raw material prices. With the decline in social and Qingdao total inventories of natural rubber last week and the continuous rebound of the rubber futures market after releasing negative sentiment, it is expected that the market will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [8][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2509 to RU2601. The price of RU2601 ranged from 15,075 to 15,645 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending and volatile movement with a slight overall increase. As of the close on August 8, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,550 yuan/ton, up 390 points or 2.57% for the week [13]. Spot Price - As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,200 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton from the previous week [17][20]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded significantly compared to the previous week, mainly due to the change of the main contract last week. As of August 8, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,050 yuan/ton, an expansion of 960 yuan/ton from the previous week. Both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with the domestic price showing a more obvious increase due to the contract change [24][27]. Important Market Information - Cambodia and Thailand reached a cease - fire agreement on August 7. - Morgan Chase expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and may announce a new Fed chair soon. He also plans to raise tariffs on India and announce drug and chip tariffs. - The US trade deficit in June decreased by 16% month - on - month. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, while the S&P Global services PMI reached a new high since December 2024. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook. - China's July CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, and PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. - From January to July, the total land acquisition amount of China's top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 34.3% year - on - year. - In July, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities increased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the average price of second - hand homes decreased by 0.77% month - on - month. - In July, China's passenger car retail sales reached 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. - The preliminary estimate of new - energy passenger car wholesale sales in July was 1.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. - In June, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. - In July, China's heavy - truck sales were about 83,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 42%, and the cumulative sales from January to July increased by about 11% year - on - year [29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the production in Thailand increased significantly compared to the previous month, while that in China, Vietnam, and India increased slightly. The production in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia decreased marginally. The total production of major natural - rubber producing countries in June 2025 was 835,400 tons, an increase of 112,700 tons or 15.6% from the previous month. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic - rubber production was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [41][46][50][54]. Demand - side Situation - As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.35%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 61%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%. The monthly sales were 2.9045 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 units, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly tire - casing production was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [56][59][62][68][71][76]. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 8, 2025, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 176,280 tons, a decrease of 1,350 tons from the previous week. - As of August 3, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%, and that of light - colored rubber was 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%, and the general - trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47% [85]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: It is currently the peak supply season for global natural rubber. The weather in Southeast Asian main production areas has improved, and rainfall in domestic production areas has decreased, leading to continuous new - rubber production and pressure on the supply side. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 634,000 tons, a 27.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises decreased slightly. The finished - product inventory of semi - steel tires was much higher than the same period last year, at a historical high, and the inventory - reduction speed of all - steel tire enterprises slowed down, with a slight year - on - year increase. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales in June increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. Heavy - truck sales in July decreased by 15% month - on - month but increased by 42% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber - tire exports were 4.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales in China were about 622,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 11%. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's natural - rubber social inventory and Qingdao total inventory both decreased slightly [86]. 后市展望 - After the weakening of the previous macro - impacts, the rubber market is gradually returning to its fundamentals. There is pressure on the supply side due to better weather in major production areas and increased imports in July. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased slightly, but the terminal automobile market showed some positive signs. With the decline in inventory, the rubber futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [87]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural - rubber futures will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, consider taking long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for band trading; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the impact of the improved domestic macro - face expectations gradually faded, and the fundamentals of methanol improved limitedly. The methanol futures fell and adjusted, closing at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. This week, methanol production is expected to increase, demand may improve slightly but remain weak overall, and inventory may rise. Methanol is likely to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted. The weighted methanol closed at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. The spot price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,370 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,380 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The port methanol market was under pressure and prices fell, while the inland market rose [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - From July 25 - 31, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase [16] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 75.28%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.33%, remaining flat. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, with an obvious increase in supply. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 43.29%, showing an increase [19][21] 2.3 Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decline. The port sample inventory was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period, an 11.38% increase [23][26] 2.4 Profit - From July 25 - 31, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples was mostly good. The theoretical profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol continued to rise, while natural - gas - based methanol continued to lose money. The weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 153.86 yuan/ton, a 22.84% increase; in Shandong, it was 193.86 yuan/ton, a 12.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 175.18 yuan/ton, a 3.50% increase. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 271 yuan/ton, an 11.07% increase. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 266 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol production is expected to be about 1.9465 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.08%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's start - up has room to rise. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 323,300 tons, with a slight reduction from last week. The port inventory is expected to continue to rise, but the impact of weather on the unloading speed needs to be noted [35]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 研究报告 纯碱周报 "反内卷"情绪持续降温，市场回归基本面 华龙期货投资咨询部 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存压力仍存，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 179.58 万吨，较上周一增加 1.22 万吨，涨幅 0.68%。 【综合分析】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1228-1432 元/吨之间运行， 价格回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 184 元/吨，周度跌涨-12.78%，报收 1256 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 69.98 万吨，环比减少 2.40 万吨，跌幅 3.32%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 80 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market and domestic stock index futures market both experienced a collective correction. This week, stock index futures are expected to show a volatile and relatively stable trend, with upward movement limited by weak economic data and downward movement supported by policies [2][5][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - On August 1st, the three major A-share indexes slightly declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 15984 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 3377 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Last week, the main contracts of domestic stock index futures all declined. The weekly decline rates of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures were -2.10%, -1.52%, -1.80%, and -0.95% respectively [5]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [6]. Fundamental Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission has established a regular communication and exchange mechanism with private enterprises, held 17 symposiums, and communicated face-to-face with nearly 80 private enterprises. It has also conducted more than 500 discussions with private enterprises through various means, and provincial, municipal, and county development and reform departments have held more than 20,000 private enterprise symposiums. The comprehensive service platform for private economic development has received more than 2400 problem requests since its launch more than half a year ago [7]. - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025, stating that since 2025, it has strengthened situation analysis, prepared policy reserves, introduced a package of monetary policy measures, and effectively promoted various tasks [8]. - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first reissuance of the 2025 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase III). The reissued bonds are 50-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bonds with a competitive tender face value of 35 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.10%. As of August 1st, 796 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been issued, reaching 61% of the annual issuance plan [8]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [9]. Valuation Analysis - As of August 1st, the PE, PB, and their respective percentile points of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are provided [12]. - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock-bond yield spread are introduced [22]. China - Buffett Indicator - On July 31st, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 80.03%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 75.10%, and in the past 10 years' data, it was 73.51% [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern this week. The macro environment presents a game between "policy support" and "weak economic recovery." The extension of the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension period between China and the US has alleviated market concerns, but structural contradictions remain [25]. - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, indicating continued pressure on corporate profits. However, policy support continues, and consumer and manufacturing sectors may receive support [25]. - In terms of market style, funds may continue to rotate between defensive sectors and policy-driven sectors. The convergence of stock index futures discounts reflects a weakening of short-selling pressure, but the high proportion of net short positions in the IM contract means that the volatility risk of small and medium-cap stocks needs to be watched out for [25].

研究报告 橡胶周报 供给上量情绪降温，商品市场溢价修复 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14275-15635 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡下行，总体大幅下跌。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡下行，总体大幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 展望后市，从消息面和宏观面来看，7 月 29 日凌晨 1 时泰 国和柬埔寨停火，利空胶价；上周美联储议息会议决定维持利 率不变，对商品形成压制；国内宏观情绪显著降温，商品市场 溢价有所修复。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期国外主产区天 气好转，原料价格下跌；国内产区仍然降雨较多，原料价格维 持坚挺。6 月进口同比增加。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均 有下降，轮胎库存仍然维持高位。终端车市方面，6 月汽车产销 量和重卡销量均有所回暖。上半年中国轮胎出 ...