Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观利好供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13295-13800 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 13650 元/吨，当周上涨 245 点，涨幅 1.83%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格受宏观情绪提振震荡 偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，中美高层互动增强市场流动性 预期，缓解了贸易战引发的经济衰退担忧，对胶价构成短期支 撑。从基本面来看，供给方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入增 产期，供应上量预期增强，1-4 月国内橡胶进口增量明显，供给 端压力加大。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black sector stopped falling and rebounded last week driven by coking coal. The decline in rebar production was significant, and the inflection point of steel supply is approaching. However, the fundamentals still need to be repaired. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [5][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Analysis - As of June 6, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10] Important Market Information - On the evening of June 5, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Both sides agreed to implement the Geneva agreement and strengthen cooperation [14] Supply - Side Situation - As of the week of the report, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,500 tons. The average含税 cost of billets in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills was 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [5][32] Demand - Side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index in the steel distribution industry was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Inventory - Side Situation - The rebar inventory in steel mills was 1.8486 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory was 3.8562 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,700 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.6381 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,900 tons [33] Fundamental Analysis - In late May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.091 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9%. On June 6, Shandong's mainstream steel mills lowered the purchase price of coke. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2669 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 398,900 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1399 million tons, a decrease of 1.269 million tons [32] 后市展望 - The black sector stopped falling and rebounded last week driven by coking coal. The decline in rebar production was significant, and the inflection point of steel supply is approaching. However, the fundamentals still need to be repaired. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [6][34]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil prices declined due to the expected increase in domestic imports following signs of eased China - Canada trade relations. Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose slightly. Given the seasonal consumption off - peak and the upcoming summer vacation in southern sales areas, with normal soybean import rhythm and high - volume factory crushing, soybean oil inventory will further accumulate. Domestic oil and fat inventories are slightly on the loose side, and consumption is average. There is a high possibility of futures prices oscillating and consolidating [8][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Analysis - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12]. Other Data - As of May 30, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 6.40 million tons to 84.80 million tons. On June 4, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 3.00 million tons to 36.30 million tons [16]. - As of June 5, 2025, the port - imported soybean inventory was 5,895,030 tons [20]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 404 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 168 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 1.31% to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.23% to close at 9,140 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to increase by 3.07%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01%. Meanwhile, 6 - 7 months in 2025 saw concentrated soybean purchases by Chinese enterprises. It is expected that 12 million tons of soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. Based on last year's average monthly soybean crushing volume of 8.7 million tons from June to August, the domestic soybean commercial inventory is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons by the end of August. The US soybeans rose 1.51% this week [6][7][30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second and third quarters, the supply of live pigs will remain abundant, and the demand boost will be limited. The market supply - demand pattern will show an oversupply situation, with the overall fundamentals being weak. Pig prices will continue to be under pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, secondary fattening, and frozen product warehousing will provide some support to pig prices, the support may be limited. It is expected that future pig prices will maintain a low - level oscillation [7][127]. - It is expected that the main live pig contract in June may maintain a low - level oscillation. It is advisable to focus on the support around 13,000 yuan/ton. Operationally, it is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while aggressive investors can consider trying to go long at low prices when the opportunity arises [7][8][129]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In May 2025, the price of the main live pig futures contract LH2509 fluctuated between 13,380 - 14,060 yuan/ton, showing a downward - oscillating trend and a slight decline for the month. As of the close on Friday, May 30, 2025, the main live pig contract LH2509 fell by 305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19%, closing at 13,605 yuan/ton [5][12]. Spot Price - As of May 22, 2025, the national average live pig price was 14.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current national average live pig price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. - As of May 30, 2025, the average price of二元sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of May 22, 2025, the average price of piglets was 39.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from the previous month [22]. - As of May 30, 2025, the prices of 20 - kg外三元piglets in Baoding, Hebei; Linyi, Shandong; and Kaifeng, Henan were 36 yuan/kg, 35.78 yuan/kg, and 35.63 yuan/kg respectively, all showing a slight decline from the previous week [26]. Supply - Demand Balance Situation Global Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance Situation - According to the USDA report, it is estimated that in 2024, the global live pig supply - demand gap was 16,369 thousand heads, a year - on - year decrease of 6,467 thousand heads. The global pork supply - demand gap was 1,434 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 594 thousand tons [33]. China's Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance Situation - According to the USDA report, it is estimated that in 2024, China's live pig supply - demand gap was - 20,000 thousand heads, a year - on - year decrease of 10,629 thousand heads. China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,202 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 599 thousand tons [39]. Supply - Side Situation - As of March 2025, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From a seasonal perspective, the live pig inventory was at a relatively low level in history [45]. - As of April 2025, the national能繁sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, basically the same as the previous month; a year - on - year increase of 520,000 heads, an increase of 1.3%. From a seasonal perspective, the能繁sow inventory was at a relatively low level in history [50]. - As of March 2025, the national pork production was 16.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. From a seasonal perspective, the pork production was at the historical average level [55]. - In April 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the monthly import volume was at a relatively low level in the past five years [58]. Demand - Side Situation - In April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises in China was 30.77 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 heads, an increase of 0.46%. From a seasonal perspective, the monthly slaughter volume was at a relatively high level in the past five years [66]. - As of March 31, 2025, the cumulative output of major meats nationwide was 25.4 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 16.02 million tons, accounting for 63.07% [70]. Spread Analysis - As of May 29, 2025, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the white - striped chicken wholesale price was 3.48 yuan/kg, and the spread between the pork wholesale price and the mutton wholesale price was - 39.06 yuan/kg. From a seasonal perspective, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the white - striped chicken wholesale price was at a relatively low level in the past five years [78]. - As of May 29, 2025, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the beef wholesale price was - 42.96 yuan/kg, and the spread between the pork wholesale price and the egg wholesale price was 13.09 yuan/kg. From a seasonal perspective, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the beef wholesale price was at a relatively high level in the past five years [85]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.45 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.51 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 2.77 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [89]. - As of April 2025, the feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From a seasonal perspective, the feed output was at a relatively high level in history [95]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 84.37 yuan/head. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was at the historical average level [102]. - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 35.65 yuan/head. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was at the historical average level [107]. - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of broilers was - 0.38 yuan/bird. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of broilers was at the historical average level [115]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of May 30, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 6.16, currently in the normal range [120]. Impact of Recent Tariff Policies on Pig Prices Recent Tariff Policies - Since March 10, 2025, China has imposed an additional 10% tariff on pork, beef, aquatic products, etc. originating from the United States as a counter - measure [121]. - Since March 20, 2025, China has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Canadian pork as a counter - measure [121]. - Since April 10, 2025, China has imposed an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States [121]. - Since April 10, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84% [122]. - Since April 12, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 84% to 125% [122]. - Since May 14, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States: the additional tariff rate has been adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will be suspended for 90 days [123]. Impact on Pig Prices - In 2024, China's total imported pork was 1.07 million tons, accounting for only 2.29% of domestic pork production and 1.85% of domestic total demand, having a very limited impact on domestic supply and demand. In 2024, pork imported from the United States accounted for about 6.8% of the total imports, and pork imported from Canada accounted for about 10% of the total imports. Overall, the tariff policies have a small impact on China's live pig market and mainly boost market sentiment [124]. Fundamental Analysis - In May 2025, the national average live pig price decreased slightly from the previous month;二元sows increased slightly; and piglet prices decreased slightly from the previous month [125]. - Supply - side: At the end of April, the national能繁sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, basically the same as the previous month; a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Calculated from the能繁sow inventory, the supply will continue to increase in the second and third quarters. In April 2025, the pork import volume decreased by 7.1% year - on - year and 11.1% month - on - month, reaching a historical low. In late May 2025, large - scale pig enterprises accelerated the slaughter rhythm, and the market volume of live pigs increased month - on - month. With the gradual increase in temperature, the enthusiasm of individual farmers to slaughter large pigs has increased, intensifying the phased supply pressure [125]. - Demand - side: At the end of April, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, reaching a historical high. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking showed some improvement, but the demand declined seasonally after the festival. With the gradual increase in temperature, the terminal demand was weak, and the procurement volume of households and the catering industry decreased month - on - month. At the same time, as pig prices fell, secondary fattening in the north also increased. White - striped meat dealers were waiting and seeing about future prices and mainly purchased based on rigid demand. The pork price lacked the driving force for an increase. Frozen products continued to be warehoused, but mainly passively, with less active warehousing [125][126]. - In terms of live pig breeding profit, in May 2025, the overall breeding profit showed a downward - oscillating trend. The breeding profit of purchasing piglets declined significantly from the previous month, turning from profit to loss; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs decreased significantly from the previous month but remained in a profitable state [126].

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 铜消费环比增长较快，全球精炼铜供需过剩局面得到缓解。中国 铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）维持低位，加工费持续为负， 使得铜冶炼企业生产积极性受到影响。中国精炼铜产量持续保持增长， 增速有所扩大。精废铜价差保持稳定。铜材产量环比下降，同比继续 保持增长。 COMEX 铜累库明显 沪铜库存小幅上升，LME铜库存持续去库，COMEX铜累库明显。综 合来看，铜价可能以震荡行情为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜需求变 化超预期。 铜月报 宏观面不确定性增大，沪铜或震荡运行 内容提要 美国关税政策不断变化 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同 比增长1.4%。连续两月出现同比增长，扭转了前期同比下降趋势。美 国国际贸易法院此前做出禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决后，美国联邦巡回上诉法 院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置上述裁决。 精炼铜产量保持增长 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The weak performance of overseas markets during the "Dragon Boat Festival" may drag down the A-share market. It is expected that the A-share market will shift from the previous upward oscillation to a downward oscillation after the festival. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels [1][15] Group 2: Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3,822.4 points, down 13.0 points or 0.62% from the previous week. IH2506 closed at 2,667.2 points, down 25.8 points or 0.96% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - On May 31, local time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the tariff exemptions for some products in the Section 301 investigation into China's actions, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. These exemptions, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, have been extended to August 31, 2025 [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 3, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.46 times, with a quantile of 51.18%, and the PB was 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.86 times, with a quantile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, with a quantile of 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [7] Group 5: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [12]

研究报告 甲醇月报 基本面依旧偏弱，未来关注宏观 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 5 月，甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，5 月甲醇供给增加较为明显，而 甲醇下游主力产品产能利用率下降。供需偏弱，使得企业出货不 理想，进而导致甲醇企业库存上升。港口库存方面，由于进口增 加，使得 5 月甲醇港口库存同样上升。偏弱的基本面使得 5 月国 内甲醇价格下跌明显，进而导致甲醇企业利润下降。5 月外围甲 醇市场同样呈现需求不足，国际甲醇价格同样呈现下跌。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 6 月预计甲醇产量将继续增加，供给端仍是甲醇的主 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In May 2025, the price of soybean meal futures bottomed out and rebounded. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and as the North American production area enters a period sensitive to weather factors, the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, the market supply has significantly recovered, and the operating rate of oil mills has rebounded sharply. The inventory of soybean meal has reached an inflection point, and the basis of soybean meal has rapidly declined from a high level and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is accumulating. Although the phased strength of U.S. soybean futures will still boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited due to the large arrival of domestic soybeans, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review In May 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose by 1.38% to close at 2946, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal rose by 3.34% to close at 2571. In the international market, the continuous price of U.S. soybeans fell by 0.17% to close at 1042.25, and the price of U.S. soybean meal fell by 0.44% to close at 296.10 [6][9]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report on U.S. Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per unit is 52.5 bushels per acre, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%; the soybean production is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The estimated soybean crushing volume is 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply [18]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazilian soybean production; the import volume is 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; the crushing volume is 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; the export volume is 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; the global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons [7][21]. - **Other Data**: As of May 25, 2025, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 215,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 89,300 tons, and the inventory was at a historically low level. As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 84.37 yuan per head, and the profit was at a historically high level. As of April 2025, the feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the feed production was at a historically high level [25][27][28]. Cross - Variety Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 142.3 yuan per ton, and the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 39.4 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.57, and the ratio was at a historically high level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.89, and the price difference was - 331 yuan per ton [30][32][33]. Outlook The focus is on whether the export demand for U.S. soybeans can recover. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans, the supply has recovered, the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis of soybean meal has declined and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is increasing. Although the strength of U.S. soybean futures will boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35].