能源化工板块成交3996.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.69%；持仓金额4435.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.29%；成 交持仓比为70.04%。 流动性日报 | 2025-10-23 市场流动性概况 2025-10-22，股指板块成交5880.81亿元，较上一交易日变动-21.95%；持仓金额12369.17亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.59%；成交持仓比为47.56%。 国债板块成交3222.53亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.46%；持仓金额8193.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.42%；成交持 仓比为39.34%。 基本金属板块成交2882.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.13%；持仓金额5243.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.62%；成 交持仓比为59.81%。 贵金属板块成交14202.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+27.44%；持仓金额4792.16亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.88%；成 交持仓比为324.09%。 农产品板块成交3152.96亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.88%；持仓金额5677.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.14%；成交 持仓比为49.72%。 黑色建材板块成交1888. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is facing short - term downward pressure due to global supply surplus and weak demand, but is expected to be optimistic in the long - term considering low domestic inventory and consumer resilience [2][3] - The sugar market is mainly influenced by overseas trends. Short - term decline is limited by cost, while long - term outlook is bearish due to global surplus expectations [5][6] - The pulp market has limited improvement in fundamentals. Short - term prices are expected to remain at a low level and fluctuate, waiting for the actual implementation of demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton yesterday, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,643 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1108, up 62 from the previous day; the national average price was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1237, up 49 from the previous day. In September 2025, cotton product exports were 602,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.01%, with an export value of $4.983 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 8.57% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.25%. From January to September 2025, exports were 5.5362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.87%; the export value was $50.408 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.32% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data delays have increased market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern in the new year is expected to be loose. With new cotton on the market and weak US cotton exports, short - term external prices are under pressure. Domestically, cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, starting the new year with low inventory. Seed cotton purchase prices have stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term cotton prices may weaken due to new cotton listing and weak demand, but are expected to be positive in the long - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5426 yuan/ton yesterday, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 324, down 8 from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 304, up 2 from the previous day. Datagro expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the next season (April 2026 - March 2027) to reach 43.2 million tons, an increase from the current expected 41.42 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell yesterday. Brazilian sugar production was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but new - season production may be lower than expected, and the price is near the cost line, limiting the downward space [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term decline is limited by cost, but long - term outlook is bearish due to global surplus expectations [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5220 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP11 + 380, down 50 from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4995 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP11 - 225, down 25 from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [6][7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price rose yesterday. Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on supply. Global supply pressure remains, and domestic port inventory is high. Demand in Europe, the US, and China is weak, and the paper industry is in surplus, with low paper mill operating rates [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]

宏观日报 | 2025-10-23 地产下游销售低位，关注能源上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）有记者向外交部发言人郭嘉昆提问，在与中国商务部部长王文涛会谈之后，欧盟委员会贸易和经 济安全委员谢夫乔维奇表示，欧盟和中国官员已同意在布鲁塞尔举行紧急会谈，讨论中国针对稀土的出口管制问 题。外交部能否确认这一会谈并提供更多信息？对此郭嘉昆表示，中欧经贸关系的本质是优势互补、互利共赢。 希望欧方恪守支持自由贸易、反对贸易保护主义的承诺。 服务行业：1）深圳市地方金融管理局等多部门印发《深圳市推动并购重组高质量发展行动方案（2025—2027年）》， 其中提出，力争到2027年底，辖区上市公司质量全面提升，境内外上市公司总市值突破20万亿元，培育形成千亿 级市值企业20家。行动方案支持集成电路、人工智能、新能源、生物医药等战略性新兴产业领域开展上下游并购 重组，以及加快实施国有企业战略性重组和专业化整合。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：玻璃价格回落较多。2）农业：棕榈油价格小幅回落。3）能源：煤炭库存回落，液化天然气价格 回升。 中游：1）化工：PX、尿素开工率保持高位。2） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Report gives a neutral rating for the lead industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some regions is also tight. Therefore, the lead price is showing a range - bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On October 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.69/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all remained unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference, waste electric vehicle battery price, waste white - shell battery price, and waste black - shell battery price also remained unchanged [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,125 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 29,011 lots (a decrease of 14,526 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 26,547 lots (a decrease of 7,009 lots). During the night session, it opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous day. Different regions had different pricing strategies for lead. The regional supply of lead ingots remained tight, and with the approaching end of the current - month long - term contracts, the supply of spot goods was limited. Some downstream buyers made purchases as needed, while others waited for the execution of new - month long - term contracts [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On October 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 22, the LME lead inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Strategy - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the additional empty sailings in November may promote the better implementation of the price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7] - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharge have relatively little impact on the European line [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 22, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1582.90, EC2604 contract is 1171.40, EC2606 contract is 1353.30, EC2608 contract is 1474.80, EC2510 contract is 1136.60, and EC2512 contract is 1788.30 [7] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes show price changes of different shipping companies from Shanghai to Rotterdam in October and November. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 45 quote is 1410/2350; HPL's price in the second half of October is 1185/1935, and in the first half of November is 1535/2535, etc. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] - The SCFIS on October 20, 2025, slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The SCFIS on October 13 was 1031.6, and on October 20 was 1140.38 [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 5 empty sailings and 5 TBNs (expected to turn into empty sailings later), and in December, there are 5 TBNs [3] - As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 963,800 TEU; 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 218,840 TEU [8] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: On October 22, 2025, the Israeli parliament passed a bill in a preliminary vote to extend Israeli sovereignty to the West Bank, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [2] - China will implement counter - measures against US USTR port surcharges next week, and the US will also impose port fees on Chinese - related ships. The number of US - owned, US - flagged, and US - built ships is limited, and the impact on the European line is relatively small [4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is affected by factors such as ship delays, the intersection of low - price and high - price ships, and price opacity, leading to large differences in the market's prediction of the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading rhythm is mainly about trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. The additional empty sailings in November reflect the shipping companies' willingness to support prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's statement that he won't meet Putin soon has made the prospect of the Russia - Ukraine situation uncertain and in a deadlock. Attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the attack on Kazakhstan's gas plant will affect its condensate production. However, the fundamental factors driving oil prices down have not reversed, so oil prices will maintain a weak pattern [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light crude oil futures price rose $1.26 to $58.50 per barrel, a 2.2% increase; the December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, a 2.07% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.65% at 449 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 20, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.014 million barrels, an increase of 2.202 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 851,000 barrels to 7.879 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 668,000 barrels to 3.615 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory increased by 2.385 million barrels to 8.52 million barrels [1] - On October 22, Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a military factory in Russia's Mordovia Republic and a refinery in Russia's Dagestan Republic. The military factory in Mordovia is an important production site for anti - infantry mines and related devices, and the refinery in Dagestan provides fuel for the Russian Caspian Fleet [1] - As of the week ending October 18, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 116,865 kiloliters to 10,404,846 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 57,037 kiloliters to 1,620,675 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 21,278 kiloliters to 2,834,521 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 86.2%, up from 85.9% the previous week [1] Investment Logic - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation due to Trump's statement and continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with the impact on Kazakhstan's condensate production, but the unchanged fundamental factors driving oil prices down lead to a weak oil price outlook [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Additional News - Russia's energy minister said Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system [3] - Indonesia's energy minister said the country's biodiesel consumption from January to September reached 10.57 million kiloliters [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, with stable consumption growth and a slight decline in social inventory. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. - For alumina, the supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. The current fundamental data shows few positive factors, and uncertainties need to be watched before and after the Guinea general election on December 28 [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,980 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,860 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium remains unchanged at - 85 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,000 yuan/ton, closed at 21,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,070 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 132,730 lots, and the position was 257,199 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 625,000 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 67,270 tons, with a change of - 2,127 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 482,525 tons, with a change of - 1,600 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On October 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,880 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,070 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,809 yuan/ton, closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, with a change of 34 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,842 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 268,015 lots, and the position was 355,935 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 22, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,700 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,496 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 204 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production of one production line due to electrical equipment failure, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In Shandong, about 10,000 tons were traded at a point - price, and the transaction price was concentrated at 2,790 - 2,800 yuan/ton, mainly non - standard products. The supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. Before and after the Guinea general election on December 28, uncertainties need to be watched [7][8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum (cautiously), neutral on alumina, bullish on aluminum alloy (cautiously). - Arbitrage: Long spread on Shanghai aluminum [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on multiple factors including the domestic economic situation, Sino - US tariff frictions, the US government shutdown, and commodity market trends. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for commodities in the short - term, and points out potential opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed signs of weakness with characteristics such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The government has proposed measures to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, September's retail sales growth slowed to 3% compared to August, and industrial value - added growth accelerated to 6.5%. Housing prices in 70 cities declined in September, with second - and third - tier cities' second - hand housing prices falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare - earth technology and charging special port fees on US ships. Both sides have agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2] - As of October 22, the US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second - longest in history. Economic data releases have been delayed, and the market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed 13.9 trillion yen from last year [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term due to high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints and is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels last week. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. For precious metals, short - term price fluctuations are risky, but there are long - term buying opportunities at low prices. On October 22, spot gold fell below $4,070 per ounce, with a decline of over $70 per ounce in 30 minutes [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - On October 21, Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video call with the EU Commissioner, discussing key economic and trade issues. China's rare - earth export control is a normal measure to improve the export control system [7] - The US government shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record of Trump's first term [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures centered around three pillars: anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security [7] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week, along with changes in other oil product inventories [7] - Russian President Putin will not attend the G20 summit in South Africa in person [7] - Spot gold prices dropped sharply on October 22 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of PE followed the cost side to stop falling and rebound due to a slight increase in the international oil price center, but the short - term cost side may still be limited. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a phased low, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - The cost - side support of PP has slightly recovered due to the rebound of oil prices and the stop - falling rebound of external propane. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the price. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. - The strategy suggests to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05, and shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6936 yuan/ton (+53), and that of the PP main contract was 6619 yuan/ton (+36). LL and PP spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 491.8 yuan/ton (-23.8), the PP oil - based production profit was - 138.2 yuan/ton (-23.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 168.0 yuan/ton (+45.7) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit was - 147.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), the PP import profit was - 451.7 yuan/ton (+108.4), and the PP export profit was 32.2 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support is limited, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a low level, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support has slightly recovered, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The inventory of steel decreased month - on - month, and steel prices rebounded. The cost of glass and soda ash increased, and their prices rebounded from the low level. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures rose slightly, while the spot market remained on the sidelines [1][3]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and soda ash prices are also expected to be volatile and weak. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to remain volatile [2][4]. Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures fluctuated strongly yesterday with active trading. The spot market was cautious, and enterprises offered flexible prices. The supply of glass is on a low - level upward trend, the inventory of middle - stream traders is high and still accumulating. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming production, glass demand is expected to weaken further [1]. - Soda ash futures also fluctuated strongly yesterday with relatively active trading. The downstream's purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly for rigid demand. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with supply at a high level and still having growth expectations. The demand side has some resilience, and inventory reduction pressure persists throughout the year [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile and weak [2]. - Soda ash: Volatile and weak [2]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - For silicomanganese, the main contract of silicomanganese futures rose slightly yesterday. The silicomanganese market fluctuated, and the market was cautious. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. From January to August, India's cumulative export volume of silicomanganese was 761,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.90%; the cumulative import volume was 15,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.98%. Silicomanganese enterprises' losses have intensified, production is high, and with the decline of hot metal, demand has weakened. Considering the futures discount to the spot, the price is expected to remain volatile [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot price was stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural block in Ningxia was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, the 72 - grade ferrosilicon standard block was quoted at 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton. Currently, the production of ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased slightly, enterprises are continuously losing money, and the motivation to increase production is insufficient. The downstream demand for ferrosilicon has begun to weaken, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4].