Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents the trading data of various index options on October 22, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market conditions of index options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On October 22, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.2495 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.4354 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.9386 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.2408 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1.8675 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 0.0226 million contracts; CSI 300 index options was 0.094 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 0.1595 million contracts [1] - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type is as follows: for SSE 50 ETF options, call volume was 0.5015 million contracts, put volume was 0.5673 million contracts, and total volume was 1.0689 million contracts; for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), call volume was 0.6088 million contracts, put volume was 0.6657 million contracts, and total volume was 1.2745 million contracts; for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), call volume was 0.6989 million contracts, put volume was 0.948 million contracts, and total volume was 1.6469 million contracts; for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, call volume was 0.0679 million contracts, put volume was 0.0178 million contracts, and total volume was 0.0857 million contracts; for ChiNext ETF options, call volume was 0.9054 million contracts, put volume was 0.9621 million contracts, and total volume was 1.8675 million contracts; for SSE 50 index options, call volume was 0.0125 million contracts, put volume was 0.0363 million contracts, and total volume was 0.0226 million contracts; for CSI 300 index options, call volume was 0.0446 million contracts, put volume was 0.0294 million contracts, and total volume was 0.0741 million contracts; for CSI 1000 index options, call volume was 0.0882 million contracts, put volume was 0.0713 million contracts, and total volume was 0.1595 million contracts [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.58, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; the position PCR was 0.90, with a month - on - month change of + 0.02; for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), the turnover PCR was 0.78, with a month - on - month change of + 0.12; the position PCR was 1.05, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), the turnover PCR was 1.13, with a month - on - month change of + 0.29; the position PCR was 1.13, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 1.84, with a month - on - month change of + 0.81; the position PCR was 1.45, with a month - on - month change of - 0.09; for ChiNext ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of + 0.38; the position PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; for SSE 50 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.43, with a month - on - month change of + 0.11; the position PCR was 0.69, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; for CSI 300 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.55, with a month - on - month change of + 0.07; the position PCR was 0.76, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; for CSI 1000 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.94, with a month - on - month change of + 0.16; the position PCR was 0.94, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 [2][33] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 16.74%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.25%; for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), the VIX was 18.12%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.20%; for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), the VIX was 23.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.33%; for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the VIX was 25.24%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.42%; for ChiNext ETF options, the VIX was 30.40%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.05%; for SSE 50 index options, the VIX was 16.85%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.41%; for CSI 300 index options, the VIX was 18.75%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.09%; for CSI 1000 index options, the VIX was 24.15%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.15% [3][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side has rebounded, and the sales of polyester yarn have improved. The recent rise in crude oil prices is supported by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve. The terminal demand has improved marginally due to the cooling weather, and the sales of polyester yarn have improved in the past two days [1]. - In the short term, the resonance of the macro - environment and fundamentals has put pressure on the fundamentals, and there is no obvious driving force for a rebound. In the PX segment, the PXN was $244/ton (a decrease of $2/ton compared to the previous period). The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and with fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, the PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, and the supply - demand support for PX is limited. In the TA segment, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 88 yuan/ton (no change compared to the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 79 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 299 yuan/ton (a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With the news of new plant commissioning, the processing fee has been further compressed. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is expected that new plants will be commissioned next week, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is relatively abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to the impact of tariffs [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period). After the National Day, the market has calmed down, and filament yarn has accumulated inventory again. Terminal raw material procurement remains mostly cautious. Under high tariffs, the operating load of weaving and texturing has decreased again this week. The current inventory of polyester factories is not high, and it is expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%. There is still support from rigid demand due to the cooling weather. In the PF segment, the spot production profit is 298 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). The load of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has remained stable. Due to the narrowing price difference in the market, the price advantage of factories has emerged, and inventory has decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the inventory held by traders has also decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. In the PR segment, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 546 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). The operating load of bottle chips has remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintain production cuts, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the operating load of plants will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment [3]. - For the unilateral strategy, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. In the PX segment, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and with fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, the supply - demand support for PX in the fourth quarter has weakened. In the TA segment, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but new plants are about to be commissioned, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to the impact of tariffs. Attention should be paid to the increase in PX maintenance due to profit compression and the Sino - US tariff game. In the PF segment, the demand for PF has improved slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the PR segment, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, maintenance continues, but the demand performance is average. It is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. For the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. For the cross - period strategy, it is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display the PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating load in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the sales of filament yarn and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament FDY and POY profits [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures present the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference (1.4D polyester staple fiber - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][78][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip second - next - month spread (second next month - base month) [86][88][97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless steel market, with weak downstream demand recovery, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 121,180 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 73,851 (+13,460) lots, and the open interest was 121,311 (+5,022) lots. The main contract changed to 2512, showing an oscillating and declining pattern. Fed officials' hawkish signals strengthened the expectation of a continuous high - interest - rate environment, and the stronger US dollar index pressured LME nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: A 1.4% nickel ore tender in the northern Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at FOB 43. There is a price difference between domestic supply and demand, and domestic factories are mostly on the sidelines. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is approaching, and northern mines are mostly tendering for shipments. Iron plants are under cost pressure and have a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories are actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,953 (-73) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,878 (+402) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2512 opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 99,210 (-26,868) lots, and the open interest was 179,530 (-4,171) lots. The contract followed the upward trend of the black sector, showing an oscillating and rising pattern. Stimulated by the decline in inventory in the afternoon, the price quickly rose to an intraday high of 12,730 yuan/ton but fell back slightly after failing to break through 12,750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Due to the continuous upward exploration of futures prices in the past two days, downstream inquiries increased slightly, but actual trading was light, and market quotes remained low. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should focus on the meeting at the end of the month. Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but the meeting may be cancelled. The US government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, and it may continue until November and exceed the 35 - day record of Trump's first - term shutdown [1]. - A - share three major indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to close at 3913.76 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.79%. In the industry, most sector indexes declined. The petroleum and petrochemical, banking, and household appliance industries led the gains, while the non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 1.7 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, with the Nasdaq falling 0.93% to 22740.40 points [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of IF, IC, and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [1]. - Affected by the correction of precious metal prices, the non - ferrous sector opened lower in the morning, and the CSI 500 Index performed relatively weakly. However, supported by the long - term expectations of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the CSI 500 is expected to gradually strengthen. Attention should be paid to the key policy documents issued after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which may provide guidance for clarifying the main direction of the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [1][4][5][9][11] 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of domestic major stock indexes on October 22, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index was 3913.76, down 0.07% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index was 12996.61, down 0.62%; the ChiNext Index was 3059.32, down 0.79%; the CSI 300 Index was 4592.57, down 0.33%; the SSE 50 Index was 3010.10, up 0.09%; the CSI 500 Index was 7128.48, down 0.80%; the CSI 1000 Index was 7312.21, down 0.43% [13] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 96934, a decrease of 25532; the open interest was 249313, a decrease of 9453 [15] - The basis data of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 18.57, an increase of 0.70; for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was - 6.50, a decrease of 3.44; for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 63.48, an increase of 13.34; for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 75.01, an increase of 8.04 [37] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures: for example, for the IF contract, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 10.60, an increase of 0.40 [43]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both apples and dates is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The apple market shows a significant differentiation pattern of "high - quality goods with firm prices and common goods with chaotic prices". The price of high - quality late - Fuji apples is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of common - quality apples may decline. The acquisition period may be shortened due to weather conditions [3][4] - The date market presents a situation of "active production areas and cautious sales areas". The inventory pressure still exists, and the new - season date production is estimated to be between 56 - 62 million tons. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue; otherwise, the futures price will be in a shock pattern [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,794 yuan/ton, a change of - 56 yuan/ton or - 0.63% from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1294 in Qixia and AP01 - 494 in Luochuan both increased by 56 compared to the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday, while the spot market was generally stable and firm. The acquisition of high - quality goods in Shaanxi and Gansu is in the later stage and being warehoused. In Shandong, although the trading volume has increased, the fruit quality is average, leading to cautious acquisition by merchants. The price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of common - quality goods may decline with the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The late - Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large amount of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will be stable and firm, with obvious price differentiation [4] Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,265 yuan/ton, a change of - 115 yuan/ton or - 1.01% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1665 increased by 115 compared to the previous day [5] Market Analysis - The date futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The spot market presented a pattern of "active production areas and cautious sales areas". The picking process in Xinjiang has accelerated, while the arrival volume in major sales areas such as Hebei and Guangdong is limited. The inventory pressure still exists, and the new - season production is estimated to be between 56 - 62 million tons. The date quality is better than that of the same period last year [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of dates may continue; otherwise, the futures price will be in a shock pattern. The large - scale picking of new - season dates in the main production areas has not started yet, and it is expected to begin after the Frost's Descent. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-23 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强力扩张"的格局：前三季度一般公共预算收入 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are generally weak with high supply and consumption - side pressure. For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are weak but may improve with potential policy support. For polysilicon, the market is affected by policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term while being suitable for long - term low - position long - order layouts [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On October 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8515 yuan/ton and closed at 8485 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 96,554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,738, a decrease of 113 from the previous day. Spot prices were stable, but due to increased northwest production and no southwest reduction in October, short - term inventory increased significantly, putting pressure on the fundamentals [1]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: Organic silicon DMC quotes were 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the supply - side, domestic DMC prices were expected to rise slightly last week, but there was a possibility of weakening this week depending on new orders and downstream demand [2]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices are stable, and silicon factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The fundamentals are currently weak, but southwest production will decrease at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended for short - term range operations, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On October 22, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 50,700 yuan/ton and closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The main contract held 49,016 lots, and 100,492 lots were traded. Spot prices were stable. Manufacturer and silicon wafer inventories increased, with polysilicon inventory at 25.30 (a 5.33% month - on - month increase) and silicon wafer inventory at 17.31GW (a 3.16% month - on - month increase). Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (no change), and silicon wafer production was 14.35GW (an 11.85% month - on - month increase) [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained stable. Polysilicon production is expected to increase in October and decrease in November in the southwest region [6]. - **Strategy**: Consumption - side support is weak, with large inventory pressure and high supply in October. The November warehouse receipts cancellation will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term. For the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term range operations are recommended, with the November main contract oscillating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the December contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold and silver is cautiously bullish, and the strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while the option strategy is to hold off [9][10] Core View - The main logic for being bullish on precious metals remains unchanged: long-term concerns about US debt put pressure on the credit currency system, and precious metals are expected to continue to benefit. Meanwhile, risks from tariffs and geopolitical black swan events have not been fully eliminated. Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential for a rebound in the future [9][10] Market Analysis - The US government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second-longest in history. The two parties remain deadlocked on the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35-day record during Trump's first term. As of October 21, the total US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid-August [2] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 22, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 962.82 yuan/gram and closed at 952.56 yuan/gram, a change of -4.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 934.72 yuan/gram, down 1.87% from the afternoon close [3] - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,400.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,404.00 yuan/kg, a change of -3.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,682,838 lots, and the open interest was 386,233 lots. The night session closed at 11,331 yuan/kg, down 0.64% from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 22, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.947%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.513%, up 0.63 BP from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On October 22, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 2,019 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 302 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract the previous day was 1,023,342 lots, a change of 47.18% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract the previous day was 2,631,399 lots, a change of 10.40% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,058.66 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 15,598 tons [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 22, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 46.83 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -576.11 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.53, a change of -0.81% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.59, a change of 4.25% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On October 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 99,064 kg, a change of 13.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,347,356 kg, a change of 10.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,890 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 184,560 kg [8] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly and gradually develop a rebound repair market. The oscillation range of the Au2512 contract may be between 915 yuan/gram and 965 yuan/gram [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The oscillation range of the Ag2512 contract may be between 10,800 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [10] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: Hold off [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of 81,600 yuan/ton to 86,600 yuan/ton this week. The recommendation for arbitrage is to hold off, and for options, it is to short put [6]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees at the LME conference, a potential TC price rebound may pressure copper prices. So, a neutral view is taken on copper prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On October 22, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 85,420 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from the previous trading day. The overnight closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1]. - **Spot Market**: On the morning of the previous day, spot copper sellers lowered their premium quotes. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to 320 - 340 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment indices increased. Sellers were eager to sell to lock in profits [2]. Important Information Summary - **US Government Situation**: The US government shutdown has lasted 22 days, and it may continue until November and exceed the 35 - day record. As of October 21, the US federal government debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars [3]. - **Mine End**: Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines approved the Tía María copper mine project of Southern Copper. The project is 25% complete and is expected to start production in late 2026 or early 2027, with an annual output of 120,000 tons of copper [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: In September 2025, China's copper scrap imports were 184,100 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 1.699 million tons, a 1.4% increase. In October, imports may decline, and the pressure to increase imports in the fourth quarter is high [4]. - **Consumption**: In September 2025, China's exports of unforged copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. Last week, the operating rates of refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded but were still below pre - holiday levels and significantly lower than the same period last year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and downstream companies were still hesitant [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 136,850 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [5]. Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: For SMM's 1 copper, the premium was 30 on October 23, 2025, compared to 50 on October 22, 90 on October 16, and 60 on September 23. Different types of copper (premium, flat, and wet - process) and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [25][27]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 136,850 tons on October 23, SHFE inventory was 110,240 tons, and COMEX inventory was 313,817 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts were 36,553 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.15% [28]. - **Arbitrage and Other Indicators**: There were changes in indicators such as CU2601 - CU2511, CU2512 - CU2511, CU12/AL12, CU12/ZN12, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The recent futures market rebound is mainly influenced by news disturbances and consumption support. Currently, the total inventory is being reduced, and there are many disturbances in the supply - side such as delayed resumption of production and shutdown news. The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, and the inventory is continuously decreasing, providing some support for the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. As the policy disturbances at the mine end weaken, and if the inventory inflection point appears, the market may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 76,000 yuan/ton and closed at 77,120 yuan/ton, with a 1.63% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 376,449 lots, and the open interest was 353,231 lots, up from 310,199 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 1,950 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,019 lots, a decrease of 873 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,500 - 72,700 yuan/ton, also up 250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 865 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and the overall market trading activity is dull [1]. - New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the power market of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles; the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - Customs data shows that the monthly import of spodumene increased significantly month - on - month, reaching 711,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe together contributed 81.1% of the total import volume. Australia imported 347,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 64.1%; Nigeria imported about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; Zimbabwe imported 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. In addition, imports from South Africa increased significantly to 109,000 tons, while there were no arriving ore volumes from Mali in September [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [4]. - **Spot - futures**: None [4].