原油日报 | 2025-12-11 2、国际油价正经历自新冠以来最糟糕的一年，而华尔街认为抛售尚未结束。目前布伦特原油期货价格在每桶62美 元附近，但根据美国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根士丹利五家投行的平均预测，2026年将进一步 下滑至约59美元。上述五家银行预计，2026年全球油市将面临日均约220万桶的供应过剩，因全球产量增长将超过 需求增速。高盛观点最为悲观，预计2026年布油均价为56美元，花旗则最为乐观，维持62美元的预期。(来源： Bloomberg) 3、哈萨克斯坦石油生产面临减产风险，因黑海关键出口系泊设施的维修工作持续拖延。目前，黑海CPC终端三个 系泊点中仅有一个在运行，一个此前遭乌克兰无人机严重损毁，另一个则正在维修中。CPC需至少两个系泊点同 时运作才能维持哈萨克斯坦的全额出口能力。由于当前运力受限，已导致储油设施库存不断累积。维修工作现在 预计要到12月15日才能完成，比此前预期耗时更长。照此情形，储油设施可能很快装满，迫使哈萨克斯坦不得不 削减产量。CPC石油终端该终端是哈萨克斯坦最大油田原油出口的唯一主要通道，同时也运输部分俄罗斯原油。(来 源：Bloomberg) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [4][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For apples, the current入库量 and入库结构 expectations are already reflected in the price Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of入库结构 differentiation, and pre - Chinese New Year inventory transfer by merchants. The market is in the off - season, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] - For red dates, if the sales situation in the sales areas improves, the price may rebound during the consumption season However, due to the large inventory of the old and new seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9510 yuan/ton, a change of +45 yuan/ton or +0.48% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day The spot basis AP05 was - 1310 and - 1110 respectively, a change of - 45 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The mainstream market price of stored late Fuji remains stable The overall出库 speed is slow In the western产区, some general fruit farmer supplies have started trading, but the volume is limited In the Shandong产区, there is sporadic出库, and the export of small fruits through foreign trade channels has slowed down The market consumption is sluggish, and the downstream consumption is weak With the listing of Guangxi tangerines, attention should be paid to the impact on apple consumption [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price showed wide - range fluctuations yesterday The产区 trading was dull, with a stalemate between buyers and sellers The actual purchasing willingness was weak, and most产区 prices were weak or in a state of confusion Some good - quality supplies had stable prices The new - season late Fuji storage in the产区 has ended, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than the same period last year The overall sentiment of merchants is optimistic The inventory started to decline last week, and the overall出库 was average Affected by the seasonal off - season, consumption is mainly based on on - demand purchases, and the demand side is under pressure The increasing listing of citrus fruits squeezes the apple sales space, and the sentiment in the sales areas is relatively pessimistic [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance, as the current expectations of入库 volume and入库 structure are already priced in Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of入库 structure differentiation, and pre - Chinese New Year inventory transfer by merchants It is expected that large - scale stocking for the Double Festival has not started this week, and the market is still in the off - season, so caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] Red Date Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 9290 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton or - 0.38% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day The spot basis CJ05 was - 690, a change of +35 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of gray dates in the Xinjiang产区 is coming to an end, with limited remaining supplies in each产区 There is a tail - end price increase for good - quality supplies Some sellers have a price - holding sentiment The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hetian, and Qiemo areas has ended The acquisition of raw materials in the产区 is based on quality, following the principle of better quality at a higher price In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market on December 9, the trading was mainly of new products The procurement cost of merchants is clear, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased The spot price is stable and firm In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks of goods arrived, and the mainstream spot price is stable, with downstream merchants purchasing on demand [7] Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a slight decline yesterday The acquisition in each产区 is coming to an end, with limited remaining supplies Sellers have a price - holding sentiment Each market has different reference prices according to grades, and actual transactions are based on quality The acquisition of gray dates in the Xinjiang main产区 is about 90% complete, and the price in the产区 has stopped falling and stabilized, with the cost becoming clear The price in the sales areas has also stabilized, and some holders have tentatively raised their quotes slightly The inventory of 36 sample points has increased significantly, and the combined inventory of the old and new seasons is the highest in recent years, with great inventory pressure The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic As the weather turns cold, red dates enter the consumption season, and the actual consumption situation on the consumption side will become another focus of the market [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance If the sales situation in the sales areas improves, the red date price may rebound during the consumption season However, due to the large inventory of the old and new seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited even if the consumption data improves [9]

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储如期降息25基点，启动"技术性扩表" 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明 ...

美联储如期降息 宽松略超预期 市场分析 贵金属日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联 储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议声明指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放 缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足，自12月12 日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱 动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性区间上端，政策正 从限制性向中性过渡。为缓解市场压力，短期国债购买规模将在未来数月维持高位，预计2026年4月15日前完成； 变相释放流动性，或被视为宽松力度的加强。美国总统特朗普重申对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评。特朗普表示，降 息幅度太小，本可以更大一些；美联储降息幅度本可以加倍。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-10，沪金主力合约开于955.70元/克，收于956.40元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.51%。当日成交量 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As zinc prices decline, the spot market discount continues to repair slightly. The spread between near - month contracts has become flat. The TC of the mining end continues to decline, and the losses of smelters expand. The raw material inventory of smelters continues to fall, and the procurement enthusiasm remains, so TC is expected to continue to decline. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased significantly month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory center continues to decline, the absolute value of LME inventory remains low, the spot premium is at a relatively high level, and the export window remains open. The fundamental data has fully changed from bearish to bullish, the current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $162.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,990 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 15 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,960 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On December 10, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,120 yuan/ton, closed at 23,075 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 118,200 lots, and the position was 93,179 lots. The highest intraday price reached 23,210 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,970 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 59,800 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive arbitrage [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 2025-12-10，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于93000元/吨，收于95980元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.56%。当日成 交量为620935手，持仓量为605453手，前一交易日持仓量575421手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-680元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单13680手，较上个交易日变化760手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价91100-94300元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价89800-90700元/吨，较前一交易日变化-100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1175美元/吨，较前一日变化8美元/吨。据SMM 数据，盘面在上午休盘结束后开始上涨，价格重心略有上移。下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，以刚需采购为主。目 前，上下游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随 部分新产线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需 求方面，12月新能源汽车销量预计仍表现亮眼；储能市场则延续供需两旺态势，供应偏紧格局依旧 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-11 债市触底修复，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号；10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题；二是美 方将暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性 规则一年；三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣 布在一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the crude oil market has been blocked and then turned down again, indicating that the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil, and both FU and LU will operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. - The current overall market contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from the high level. With the release of increased supply in the Middle East, the market needs an increase in refinery demand to offset it. After the price ratio drops, its economic efficiency begins to gradually emerge, which will form a certain support at the bottom. However, currently, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, the floating storage volume is high, and the surplus needs to be digested [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the overall supply is not in short supply, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of the Azur refinery, the shipping and delivery volume of Kuwait tracked since November has still been zero. The two CDU units of Azur are expected to restart in the middle and late of this month. In addition, the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (planned maintenance, expected to last until January 26), and the export of low-sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria may increase again during the maintenance period. As of now, the shipping volume of low-sulfur oil from Nigeria in December is zero. Looking forward, the short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread is slightly bullish, but the upside space is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.65% at 2,427 yuan/ton in the day session; the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.17% at 3,009 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 5. Figures - The report includes figures showing various fuel oil prices and trading volumes, such as Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, etc. [4]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-11 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷602美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷592美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4689元/吨，涨45元/吨，丁烷4611元/吨，涨45元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4642元/吨，涨53元/吨，丁烷4564元/吨，涨53元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 在原油端弱势运行的背景下，LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，叠加高贴水支撑到岸成本。但国内市场表现相对偏弱，昨 日局部现货价格涨跌互现。其中，华东醚后碳四价格小幅反弹，但与民用气依然维持倒挂状态，对盘面定价形成 一定压制。就LPG基本面来看，虽然近期海外供应边际收紧，但外盘价格的上涨挤压了下游化工利润，弹性需求 受到抑制。中期来看，LPG整体供需格局并未逆转，中东与北美供应将延续增长态势，而下游化工需求受制于利 润增长动力不足，市场整体将延续供过于求的状态。往前看，LPG盘面短期存在一定支撑，但上行驱动有限，未 来供应恢复后将再度面临 ...