油脂日报 | 2025-12-10 USDA报告发布，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8648.00元/吨，环比变化-58元，幅度-0.67%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化-246.00元，幅度-2.99%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9393.00元/吨，环比变化-109.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化-90.00元，幅度-1.04%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.60%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化+196.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9640.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差 OI05+247.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，尽管下行风险有限且估值不高，但由于缺乏强劲的上行催化剂，研究机构Kenanga Research对种植业板块维持"中性"看法。该研究机构在一份报告中指出，今年的食用油供应紧张状况很可 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment has warmed up, and treasury bond futures have closed higher across the board. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting released a signal of loose money. At the same time, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues, and the increase in global trade uncertainty adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9] - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a 2.38% month - on - month decrease; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with a 0.41% month - on - month increase [10] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 99.24, with a 0.13% increase; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0671, with a 0.02% increase; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.35% increase; DR007 is 1.45, with a 0.37% increase; R007 is 1.51, with a - 0.31% increase; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.62, with a 0.00% increase; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00% increase [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal: From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2] - Financial: At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance was still strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [2] - Central Bank: On December 9, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 117.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.303%, 1.431%, 1.510%, and 1.523% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 4. Spread Overview No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than figure descriptions provided. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 9, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 94,580 yuan/ton and closed at 92,800 yuan/ton, with a -1.23% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 512,215 lots, and the open interest was 575,421 lots, down from 593,129 lots the previous day. The current basis was -1,910 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 12,920 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 91,100 - 94,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 89,900 - 90,800 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,168 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Downstream material manufacturers are cautiously waiting and have weak purchasing intentions, with light market transactions. Annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, focusing on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2] - With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, the domestic lithium carbonate output in December is expected to continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3% [2] - In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong. The energy storage market remains in a situation of strong supply and demand, with a tight supply pattern. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials in December are expected to remain high, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] - Overall, with a steady increase in supply and relatively stable demand, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to destock in December, but the destocking amplitude will slow down compared to November [2] Group 3: Strategy - The intraday market was weakly volatile, mainly affected by news of mine restarts. Inventory continues to be destocked, and consumption has some support, but the destocking amplitude is starting to slow down. Mine restarts are advancing and are expected to gradually resume production [3] - There are significant differences in the forecast of consumption in the first quarter. It is expected that consumption in the power battery sector will decrease, while that in the energy storage sector will remain high. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. There are no suggestions for inter - delivery and inter - variety trading [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: On hold [9] Report's Core View - The market may price in more-than-expected monetary easing based on the statements of Hassett or Trump, so the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 940 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram [8] - The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold, but the tightness of the physical market has boosted the price to a new high. The silver price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, but one should be wary of the risk of price decline after the new high when the macro easing catalyst materializes [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal differences, and officials may then signal a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut. Kevin Hassett believes the Fed still has much room for rate cuts. Trump says he will use support for an immediate and significant rate cut as a "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman and may adjust tariff policies to help lower the prices of some goods [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 958.04 yuan/gram and closed at 951.54 yuan/gram, down 0.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 955.70 yuan/gram and closed at 955.82 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 13,726.00 yuan/kg and closed at 13,607.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,309,030 lots, and the open interest was 417,326 lots. In the night session, it opened at 13,761 yuan/kg and closed at 14,116 yuan/kg, up 3.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 9, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.184%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.573%, down 4.4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,520 lots, and the short positions decreased by 933 lots compared with the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 291,806 lots, down 21.77% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,943 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,051 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 2,048,908 lots, down 33.98% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The holdings of the gold ETF remained unchanged at 1,049.11 tons compared with the previous day. The holdings of the silver ETF decreased by 36 tons to 15,889 tons [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 9, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 0.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,160.19 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 69.93, down 0.02% from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 72.01, down 0.35% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 35,824 kg, down 17.41% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 775,390 kg, down 12.83% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 31,920 kg [7]

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-10 供应端存增量，盘面延续偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5787元/吨（-32），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6090元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差213元/吨（+32），丙烯华北基差125元/吨（+0）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR179美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR44美元/吨（-10），进口利润-341元/吨（+12），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-330元/吨（+10）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润412元/吨（-30）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润693元/吨（+0）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润415元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-676元/吨（-70）；酚酮 开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-977元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端东莞巨正源、山东滨华PDH装置存重启预期，PDH亏 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. After policy stability, there is no sudden news to stimulate the market, so the overall soybean meal price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply in the Northeast production area is currently tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but the selling progress is expected to accelerate. The demand side, including deep - processing and feed enterprises, has inventory replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Contents 3.1 Soybean Meal Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2763 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2317 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - Export Data: Brazil exported 970,000 tons of soybeans in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 194,000 tons, a 103% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year. As of December 4, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.018 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation lead to a stable soybean meal price in a fluctuating state. The high cost of imported US soybeans requires attention to import and South American weather conditions [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2522 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.06%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Export Data: As of December 4, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.452 million tons. Brazil exported 1.728 million tons of corn in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 346,000 tons, a 70% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side in the domestic market, the selling progress in the Northeast is fast overall, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. The selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs, and the demand from feed enterprises is rigid [6]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-10 据农业农村部监测，12月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.21，比昨天下降0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为131.92，比昨天下降0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.57元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉66.55 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；羊肉62.49元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；鸡蛋7.39元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；白条鸡17.94 元/公斤，比昨天上升3.9%。 市场分析 综合来看，随着气温的逐步降低，需求有一定转好，叠加腌腊的逐步上量，屠宰企业开工可以看到有一定上升， 但前期集团厂出栏节奏偏慢，叠加散户压栏的部分供应，以及四季度的出栏旺季，预计需求的缓慢增长难以承接 未来较大的供应压力，生猪供应宽松格局或仍将延续。 策略 谨慎偏空 供需双增，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11450元/吨，较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨，幅度+0.57%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.26元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH03-190，较前交易日变动- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.35%, at 2,410 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.56%, at 2,997 yuan/ton [1] - After the rebound, crude oil prices have retraced again, indicating that the market's expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. In the medium term, the cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment phase, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from its high level. With the release of increased supply from the Middle East, the market needs an increase in refinery demand to offset it. After the price ratio dropped, its economic viability began to show, which will provide some support at the bottom [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of Azul Refinery, the shipping volume tracked in Kuwait since November remains zero. In addition, the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (scheduled maintenance, expected to last until January 26). During the maintenance period, Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports may increase again. The short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread is oscillating and slightly bullish, but the upside space is expected to be limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.35%, at 2,410 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.56%, at 2,997 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices retraced after a rebound, indicating that the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil in the medium term [1] - The overall market contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, and the crack spread has dropped from its high. With increased Middle Eastern supply, refinery demand needs to rise. The economic viability of high-sulfur fuel oil has emerged, providing some support [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is generally ample with local reductions. The extended maintenance of Azul Refinery has led to zero shipping in Kuwait since November. Dangote Refinery's RFCC unit is under maintenance from December 8 to January 26, and Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports may increase. The high-low sulfur spread is oscillating and slightly bullish, with limited upside [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market demand for black building materials is weak, with steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal all showing downward or weakening trends [1][3][5][7] - For steel, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates need improvement through production cuts [1] - Iron ore is facing a situation where supply may increase and demand is weakening, and the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions may lead to price pressure [3] - The demand for coking coal and coke is soft, and the price of coking coal is falling, while the price of coke is under downward pressure [5][6] - The thermal coal market is also weak, with falling prices at the mine mouth and in ports, and a supply - demand pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3079 yuan/ton and 3252 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has weak trading, with poor speculative sentiment and mainly low - price terminal purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with declining consumption and production, and reduced inventory pressure. The supply - demand of plates needs improvement through production cuts to reduce seasonal inventory pressure. With the arrival of the off - season for building materials, attention should be paid to the impact on fundamentals and the changes in production cuts and profits [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weak. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume in major ports is 113.7 million tons, a 1.25% increase from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply has slightly increased this week. High prices may stimulate supply, but some inventories are locked. Demand is weakening, with a decline in daily average pig iron production and seasonal decline expectations. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and price pressure may occur if external factors are removed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are falling. The demand for coke in some regions is weak due to blast furnace maintenance, and the price of coking coal at the mine mouth is continuously falling. The price of imported Mongolian coal has also declined, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to about 970 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The trading of coking coal is weak, and the supply - demand structure of coke is relatively loose. The price of coke is under downward pressure due to the weak cost side. Attention should be paid to the impact of autumn - winter environmental protection on enterprises and coal price trends [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to trade in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices of thermal coal at the mine mouth in the main production areas are falling. The market demand is weak, with terminal demand - based procurement and traders having a bearish outlook. The port market is also weak, with rising inventories and difficult trading. The prices of both domestic and imported coal are falling, and imported coal has a cost - performance advantage [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is in a range - bound state. In the long - term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足， 供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化，但仍处高位，后续玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃 冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-10 市场需求转弱，铁矿弱势震荡 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏紧，玻碱窄幅震荡 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货先抑后扬运行，收盘于5732元/吨。现货端：锰矿现货市场报价坚挺，6517北方市场价格 5490-5550元/吨，南方市场价格5520-5570元/吨。 整体来看，当前硅锰企业持续亏损下，产量及开工率延续回落。但减产力度不足，致使企业库存高位。港口锰矿 库存小幅回升，锰元素总库存持稳，为硅锰带来成本支撑。后期关注硅锰基差、锰矿成本支撑及产量变化情况。 硅铁方面，昨日硅铁主力合约收盘于5462元/吨。现货端：硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5100-5200元/吨， 75硅铁价格报56 ...