1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas premiums have further strengthened, and the warrant risk persists. The export profit of refined zinc in China continues to expand, and the overseas selling and delivery profit begins to appear. The domestic surplus nature remains unchanged, but the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected. The macro - bullish factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $299.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,890 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,010 yuan per ton and closed at 22,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,274 lots, and the position was 132,692 lots. The highest price was 22,030 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,930 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, a change of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Overseas premiums are strengthening, and the warrant risk persists. The export profit of refined zinc in China is expanding, and the overseas selling and delivery profit appears. Domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC continues to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive, the processing fee may also be adjusted downwards. The domestic surplus remains, but the inventory accumulation may be less than expected. The smelting comprehensive profit is narrowing, and if the situation continues or the sulfuric acid price drops, the smelting enthusiasm will be hit, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - bullish factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has changed. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

油料日报 | 2025-10-23 豆一供应端博弈加剧，花生需求端持续低迷 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约4057.00元/吨，较前日变化-4.00元/吨，幅度-0.10%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A11-17，较前日变化+4，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：据钢联数据，东北市场新季大豆收割基本进入尾声，因还粮和部分订单下达，粮贸企业积极入市 收购，38%以上蛋白货源较为抢手，优质优价，高蛋白价格坚挺。目前低蛋白普通豆毛粮价格1.8-1.85元/斤不等， 价格稳中有涨，40%左右蛋白塔粮价格1.98-2.02元/斤。因南方高蛋白货源上市进度偏慢且货源品质不如往年，使 得东北豆价得以支撑，走势偏强。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一 日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富 锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.00元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.13元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC prices may rebound with macro - sentiment after a decline. The supply is abundant due to new capacity and recovering from maintenance, and demand has improved. Export is strong but there are potential risks from anti - dumping investigations. Attention should be paid to policies and political meetings. [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu. Supply is expected to rise slightly, while demand sentiment is mixed due to alumina plant production cuts. Inventory varies by region, and new alumina plant demand needs attention. [3] Group 3: Summary by Category PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4719 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in East China is - 89 yuan/ton (-20), and in South China is - 19 yuan/ton (-20). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China at 4700 yuan/ton (+0). [1] - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 690 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 713 yuan/ton (-91), ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 553 yuan/ton (-14), and PVC export profit is - 0.8 dollars/ton (+0.0). [1] - Inventory and开工: Factory inventory is 36.0 tons (-2.3), social inventory is 55.6 tons (-0.1), calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and overall PVC开工 rate is 75.14% (-5.66%). [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 55.6 tons (-2.8). [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed, and new capacity is ramping up. The supply is abundant. [3] - Demand: Downstream开工 has recovered, and point - price transactions have improved. Exports are strong, but PVC product exports may be affected by anti - dumping investigations. [3] - Inventory: Social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute value is still high. [3] - Price: The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging, but may be affected by policies. [3] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2380 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 183 yuan/ton (-5). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+0), and 50% is 1280 yuan/ton (+0). [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 988.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) in Shandong is 216.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and in the Northwest is 1191.25 yuan/ton (-50.51). [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.33 tons (-1.79), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.34), and the开工 rate is 81.40% (-2.90%). [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 86.22% (-0.10%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 88.61% (-1.02%). [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New capacity has been put into full production, and more maintenance enterprises have resumed, so supply is expected to increase slightly. [3] - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but there are expectations of production cuts in Henan. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid needs. [3] - Inventory: Shandong's inventory is stable, while Jiangsu's inventory has increased. [3] - Price: The price is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu. [3] Strategies - PVC: Unilateral - wait and see; Inter - delivery spread - sell V01 and buy V05 when the spread is high; Inter - commodity spread - no strategy [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - wide - range oscillation; Inter - delivery spread - wait and see; Inter - commodity spread - no strategy [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). Driven by the news of several device operations and possible supply cuts in Saudi Arabia, the EG price rose, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian devices are still shut down or operating at low loads, with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, there is no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2] - The ethylene glycol port inventory is rising, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply. The price has fallen to near the April low. Attention should be paid to the shipping fee issue related to vessels involved in US - related problems [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - High tariffs lead to no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis and a slight increase in steel prices. However, the inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market remains prominent. The short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The iron ore market has seen a small rebound. With the successful first shipment from Simandou, the overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices, and the subsequent demand is expected to weaken as steel mill profit shrinks and production cut expectations increase [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows that the futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, and the elimination of backward coking capacity is accelerating. The overall supply of coking coal is slightly shrinking, and the demand for coke is showing a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a significant increase in coal prices due to strong downstream demand. Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large, and the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main steel futures contract rose on a month - on - month basis. The production of building materials and hot - rolled coils in the country declined this week, inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the apparent demand rebounded on a month - on - month basis. The overall spot steel trading was average, with prices basically stable or slightly rising, and a strong willingness to sell at low prices [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years. The industrial side needs to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to relieve the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure. The high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market is still prominent. Short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and the steel inventory pressure cannot be ignored [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price rebounded slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 1.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.56%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 0.866 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.9%. The first shipment from Simandou was successful recently, and it is expected to achieve the target smoothly in the future [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The current overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices. As steel mill profit shrinks, the expectation of steel mill production cuts is increasing, and the subsequent iron ore demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project's shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures prices oscillated strongly. In the imported coal market, traders were cautious, and quotes fluctuated with the market, with a general trading atmosphere. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, affecting the local supply decline. Wuhai and Ordos are accelerating the elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, involving a total production capacity of more than 10 million tons [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: For coking coal, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, and environmental protection restrictions have affected domestic production, resulting in a slight contraction in overall supply. The downstream blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output have declined slightly, and enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand with weak restocking willingness. For coke, some coking enterprises are at the break - even point due to rising coal prices, and the production enthusiasm is limited. Coupled with the elimination of backward production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the coke supply is restricted. Steel mills have large inventory pressure, and the molten iron output is declining, so the actual demand for coke shows a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillate [7]. - Coke: Oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, recent safety inspections are strict, the number of coal mines with production suspension and reduction has increased, the overall supply has tightened, the upstream quotes are firm, and the downstream terminal demand is continuously released, so the pit - mouth coal price continues to rise. At ports, the coal price is running strongly. The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway is still in the maintenance stage, the shipping volume increase is limited, and the port inventory accumulation speed is relatively slow. In the import market, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, downstream tenders are gradually increasing, and the import bid price has increased slightly [7]. - Supply - demand and logic: Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large. The downstream winter storage demand is good, and the non - power coal demand is strong, so the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Core Viewpoints - For the soybean meal market, although the USDA has not released the latest data, Brazil's strong export performance is pressuring the CBOT soybean prices and leading to ample domestic supply. Future market focus will be on policy changes and the import situation of new - season US soybeans [2] - In the corn market, the new - season corn in domestic production areas is being concentratedly supplied, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The overall price of new grain is low, and subsequent attention should be paid to national policies [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2885 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.60%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2860 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil's exports: In October, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to be 7.34 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 2.09 million tons [1] - Brazil's soybean sowing progress: As of October 18, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean season was 21.7%, higher than the previous week's 11.1% and last year's 17.6%, but lower than the five - year average of 27.7% [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2133 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.51%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2426 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.12%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Brazil's corn exports: In October, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be 6.57 million tons [3] Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Brazil's strong exports are pressuring CBOT soybean prices, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The future market focus is on policy changes and the import of new - season US soybeans [2] Corn - Domestically, the new - season corn in the Northeast and North China is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the overall price of new grain is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [5] Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn sectors, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices are mainly stable, with a slight increase in the futures market and improved spot trading, but downstream procurement remains cautious [2] - In the medium - to long - term, urea supply and demand are still relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity [2] - With the improvement of weather, agricultural demand for urea increases. Northeast compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production in late October, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast [2] - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are export windows. In September, 1.37 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Figures cover urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [25][26][27][28] 4. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit [30][35][38][41] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Figures include compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days [54][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures consist of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [52][55][60] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,621 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,540 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), in Henan was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 81 yuan/ton (-22). Urea production profit was 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 992 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6302 million tons (+14,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18% (-1.32%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.41 days (+0.70) [1]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-23 苯乙烯港口库存压力持续 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-93元/吨（-52）。纯苯港口库存9.90万吨（+0.90万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费134美元/吨（-13 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费119美元/吨（-12美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差88.5美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现 货-M2价差-20元/吨（-20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1935元/吨（-50），酚酮生产利润-416元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润826元/吨（+348）， 己二酸生产利润-1148元/吨（-32）。己内酰胺开工率92.41%（-3.59%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+0.00%），苯胺开工率 75.73%（-1.43%），己二酸开工率59.10%（-7.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差-28元/吨（-55元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-480元/吨（+16元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存202500吨（+6000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存122500吨（+1000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率71.9%（-1.7%）。 下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - Crude oil prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding after continuous decline, driving up the energy sector including PG. The fundamentals of the LPG market remain largely unchanged, with a loose supply - demand pattern. Market participants are awaiting the results of China - US trade negotiations. Domestic spot prices showed mixed trends yesterday, with the mainstream transaction price of civil gas in East China slightly decreasing and that of ether - after carbon four remaining stable. The market atmosphere is relatively stable, with downstream buyers purchasing as needed. Given the current window period of pending major macro - events and numerous news - related disturbances, caution is advised [1] Market Analysis - On October 22, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4230 - 4270; Northeast market, 3830 - 4110; North China market, 4100 - 4270; East China market, 4150 - 4250; Yangtze River region market, 4370 - 4630; Northwest market, 4050 - 4150; South China market, 4250 - 4480 [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 543 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton, and butane was 548 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4242 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton, and butane was 4281 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 537 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton, and butane was 542 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4195 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton, and butane was 4234 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Currently, the supply and demand of oils remain stable with weak driving forces. However, the macro - environment has changed significantly recently, so the impact of macro - factors on the market needs to be closely monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,164.00 yuan/ton yesterday, with a环比 change of - 130 yuan (-1.40%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,238.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 56.00 yuan (-0.68%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,834.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 30.00 yuan (-0.30%) [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,140.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 150.00 yuan (-1.61%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 24.00, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,450.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 70.00 yuan/ton (-0.82%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 212.00, with a环比 change of - 14.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,140.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 30.00 yuan (-0.29%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 306.00, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Brazil: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 178.5 million tons (compared to 171.8 million tons in the previous season). Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach 111 million tons (higher than 109.5 million tons in 2025). The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season will reach 60.5 million tons (higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous season). The soybean meal production in the 2025/26 season will be 46.6 million tons (compared to 45.1 million tons in the previous season). Brazil's soybean meal exports in 2026 will be 24.6 million tons (compared to 23.6 million tons in 2025). Brazil's soybean oil production in 2026 will be 12.1 million tons (compared to 11.7 million tons in 2025). Brazil's soybean oil imports in 2026 will be 125,000 tons, a 25% increase from the previous year [2] - Malaysia: According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77%, with a 4.54% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 21.99% increase in Sabah, a 16.69% increase in Sarawak, and a 20.45% increase in Borneo [2]