丙烯聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-24 宏观提振减弱，烯烃小幅回落 市场要闻与数据 丙烯方面，丙烯主力合约收盘价6578元/吨（-35），丙烯华东现货价6475元/吨（-25），丙烯华北现货价6340元/吨（-35）， 丙烯华东基差-103元/吨（+10），丙烯华北基差-253元/吨（-15）。丙烯开工率73%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR204美元/吨（+7），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR142美元/吨（+29），进口利润-106元/吨（+67），厂内库存30230吨 （+210）。 聚烯烃方面，L主力合约收盘价7288元/吨（-80），PP主力合约收盘价7096元/吨（-72），LL华北现货7240元/吨（+40）， LL华东现货7190元/吨（+0），PP华东现货7100元/吨（+0），LL华北基差-48元/吨（+120），LL华东基差-98元/吨（+80）， PP华东基差4元/吨（+72）。PE开工率78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率77.3%（+0.7%）。PE油制生产利润134.0元/吨（+49.3）， PP油制生产利润-196.0元/吨（+49.3），PDH制PP生产利润64 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-24 宏观情绪利好，生猪期价偏强运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14590元/吨，较前交易日变动+210.00元/吨，幅度+1.46%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格14.32元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-270，较前交易日变动-280；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.42元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09-170，较前交易日变动-340；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09-1090，较前交易日变动-330。 据农业农村部监测，7月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.74，比昨天下降0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.80，比昨天下降0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.57元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；牛肉64.00 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉59.16元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.43元/公斤，比昨天上升1.6%；白条鸡17.47 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2% ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-24 上游延续去库，库存降幅缩窄 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-23，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1830元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：23 元/吨（+5）；河南基差：33元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：23元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润300元/吨（-10），出口利润1082 元/吨（-1）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-07-23，企业产能利用率85.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨（+5.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-23，复合肥产能利用率32.55%（+2.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 尿素企业库存延续下降，但降幅收窄。近期国内尿素需求偏弱，尿素工厂整体接单及出货放缓。政策与宏观面对 尿素价格提振作用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - Overseas consumption remains at a high level, with India continuing to show significant growth. From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [4]. - Domestic steel exports have increased significantly, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to strong demand for raw materials. From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [4]. - The supply of iron elements is tight, and inventory is at a medium level. From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [5][6]. - The supply of carbon elements is relatively tight due to decreased production and imports. Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound [7]. Strategy - The annual outlook suggests that the rate of iron ore inventory accumulation will narrow, and the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will remain in a tight - balance state [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 1 - 5 Global Steel Industry Supply and Demand Analysis Overseas Consumption Remains High, India Continues to Grow Significantly - From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [16]. - From January to May 2025, overseas total iron production totaled 22,055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and iron ore consumption decreased by 178 million tons. In May, overseas total iron production increased by 1.8% year-on-year. From January to May, overseas scrap steel consumption totaled 16,611 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [21]. Domestic Demand Remains Stable, Exports Increase Significantly, and Raw Material Demand Remains Strong - From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [25]. Anti - Dumping Investigations Cause Disturbances, but Exports Remain Resilient - In 2024, China's steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, reaching a new high since 2017. In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports totaled 5,815 million tons, an increase of 475 million tons compared to the same period last year. Among the top 10 export destinations, Vietnam, South Korea, and India saw significant declines in imports from China due to tariff increases. Overall, exports remain strong, and most steel products continue to show growth in exports [32]. Iron Element Supply is Tight, Inventory Remains at a Medium Level Domestic Iron Ore Production Declines Month - on - Month, Supply Decreases Year - on - Year in the First Half - From January to June, the cumulative output of domestic iron ore concentrate powder was 12,862 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, continuing the low - supply situation since the second half of last year. It is expected that some production will be replenished in the second half of the year [42]. Iron Ore Supply from Australia and Brazil Increases, Supply from Non - Mainstream Sources Continues to Shrink - From January to June, China's total iron ore imports were 59,255 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Among them, imports from Australia were 36,417 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; imports from Brazil were 11,948 million tons, a decrease of 4.1%. Imports from South Africa and India were 2,050 million tons and 1,337 million tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 3.4% and - 46.5%. Imports from other non - Australian, Brazilian, Indian, and South African countries were 7,503 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. Overall, in June, the decline in iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil narrowed, and the supply from non - mainstream sources showed a contraction trend [44]. Domestic Demand Remains Resilient, Exports are Strong, and Iron Element Inventory is at a Medium - Low Level - From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [56][57]. Production and Imports Decrease, Carbon Element Supply is Relatively Tight Falling Prices and Safety Production Measures Lead to a Decrease in Domestic Coking Coal Production - Since 2023, coal production has been affected by frequent coal mine accidents. In order to eliminate safety hazards and strengthen safety production, relevant government agencies have issued a series of coal production safety policies. At the beginning of this year, the impact of coal mine accidents on supply gradually subsided, and domestic coking coal supply quickly recovered, putting pressure on coking coal prices. In June, affected by the continuous decline in coking coal prices, the pressure on coal mine inventory increased, and coking coal production continued to decline. As of July 17, the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines was lower than the same period last year [58][60]. Continuous Price Decline Leads to a Decrease in Coking Coal Imports - In the past few years, imports of coking coal from Mongolia and Russia have continued to increase. In 2024, China's net imports of coking coal reached a record high of 12,114 million tons. From January to June this year, China's net imports of coking coal were 5,282 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36%. Among them, imports from Mongolia decreased by 479 million tons, imports from Russia decreased by 2 million tons, and imports from Australia decreased by 23 million tons. Imports from the United States increased by 206 million tons in the first half of the year, but the import volume was zero in May and June [62][63]. Carbon Element Supply and Demand are in a Tight - Balance State, Inventory Structure is Continuously Optimized - Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound. Currently, the inventory structure of carbon elements shows a high degree of balance [72]. Re - evaluation of Iron and Carbon Elements Iron Element Supply is Expected to Recover, Iron Ore Inventory will be at a Medium - High Level - In April, overseas consumption was lower than expected, and overseas crude steel production and sales data were revised downwards. It is estimated that overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 1.4% year-on-year in 2025, while crude steel production is expected to decrease by 0.1%. Overseas demand for crude steel imports remains strong, and it is expected to increase by more than 1,350 million tons compared to 2025. Overseas scrap steel consumption is expected to decrease by 679 million tons, and overseas total iron production is expected to increase by 612 million tons, equivalent to an increase of 979 million tons in iron ore consumption. Based on the assumption that domestic steel consumption will increase by 0.4% year-on-year and considering the increase in iron ore imports in the second half of this year, relevant supply assumptions are made [77]. Production Increases, Imports Decrease, Supply and Demand of Coking Coal and Coke are in a Tight - Balance State - Based on the assumption of an increase in crude steel and pig iron production, it is estimated that the consumption of coke (for ironmaking) will increase by 652 million tons in 2025. Considering the poor coking profit in the past, coking plants generally adopt a production - based - on - sales strategy. The annual coke production is expected to increase by 439 million tons. The coke market will remain in a tight - balance state, and inventory will remain at a low level. Given the current decline in domestic coking coal production and a significant decrease in imports, the coking coal market will also be in a tight - balance state, and coking coal inventory is expected to reach a low level [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is affected by policies to eliminate backward production capacity. The market sentiment is positive, and commodity prices are rising, driving up the prices of propylene and polyolefins [3]. - Propylene is expected to shift from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation after capacity reduction, but supply pressure will increase as refinery operations recover, while downstream demand is also gradually recovering [3]. - For polyolefins, policies have a certain boosting effect on the market. Although production maintenance eases some supply - demand pressure, upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains sluggish, with an expected increase in supply and inventory in the future [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the propylene futures main contract, the basis between East China and the main contract, the basis between North China and the main contract, and the basis between Northwest China and the main contract, as well as the market prices in East China and Shandong [10][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers propylene processing fees, capacity utilization rates, production margins from different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking), and the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins and the operating rate of crude oil refineries [15][19][26]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Involves price differences between South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and China, and propylene import profits [31][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Consists of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [61]. 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Comprises the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between East China LL and the main contract, and between East China PP and the main contract [65][69]. 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based) and PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), PE and PP operating rates, weekly production, and maintenance losses [74][80][82]. 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Includes price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and price differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [87][94][95]. 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Involves LL and PP import and export profits, and price differences between different regions and China [101][113]. 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Includes the operating rates and production profits of PE downstream (agricultural film, packaging film, winding film) and PP downstream (plastic weaving, BOPP film, injection molding) [124][125][131]. 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Consists of inventory in oil - based and coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports for both PE and PP [133][138][146]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on propylene in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for PL01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Group 1: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 5,260 yuan/ton (+142), the East China basis was -200 yuan/ton (-82), and the South China basis was -160 yuan/ton (-42) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 5,060 yuan/ton (+60), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 5,100 yuan/ton (+100) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 112 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit was -13.8 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (+1.8), the operating rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 77.52% (+0.59%), the operating rate of the PVC ethylene method was 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 74.97% (-0.10%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,658 yuan/ton (+89), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -64 yuan/ton (-89) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,340 yuan/ton (-30) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 459.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 557.53 yuan/ton (+50.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,448.33 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 38.39 tons (+0.96), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.60% (+2.20%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina was 83.61% (+0.33%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.55% (+6.75%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis PVC - Policy impact: The upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials has boosted the PVC market sentiment. The proportion of PVC production devices with a production time of more than 20 years is about 12%, which has led to market expectations of eliminating old - fashioned production capacity [3] - Fundamental analysis: The upstream operation has slightly declined but remains at a high level. There are expectations of new production capacity coming on stream from July to August, so the supply - side pressure is high. The domestic demand of downstream industries remains weak, the operating rate of downstream products has continued to decline month - on - month and is lower than the same period last year; the short - term export situation is neutral. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Policy impact: The evaluation of old - fashioned devices in the petrochemical and chemical industries has led to expectations that caustic soda devices that have reached the designed service life or have been in operation for more than 20 years may gradually withdraw from the market, which has significantly boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the further weakening of the liquid chlorine price, the caustic soda futures price has risen significantly [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, there are few new overhauls upstream, and some chlor - alkali devices that previously reduced production due to poor liquid chlorine sales have gradually increased their loads. The overall operating rate has increased month - on - month, and there are still expectations of new production coming on stream from July to August. On the demand side, the profit of the main downstream alumina industry has expanded, the operation has continued to pick up, and the amount of liquid caustic soda supplied to the main downstream has increased. There is still short - term rigid demand support; non - aluminum demand continues to be weak in the off - season. The factory inventory of caustic soda has increased month - on - month, and the inventory is higher than the same period. With the increase in the load of chlor - alkali production reduction enterprises, the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Group 3: Strategies PVC - Single - side strategy: Cautiously go long for hedging; due to the boost of macro - sentiment, the futures price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] - Inter - delivery strategy: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side strategy: Cautiously go long for hedging; with the further weakening of liquid chlorine, the cost support for caustic soda has strengthened. In the short term, the futures price is driven by the expectation of eliminating old - fashioned production capacity, and the macro - sentiment is boosted. The caustic soda futures price is expected to continue to be strong [5]

原油日报 | 2025-07-23 重新定义石化老旧装置或带来炼油产能优化 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌99美分，收于每桶66.21美元，跌幅为1.47%；9月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌62美分，收于每桶68.59美元，跌幅为0.90%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.55%，报504元/桶。 2、 伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃在例行记者会上表示，伊朗将与中国和俄罗斯就伊朗核计划问题举行三方 会谈。巴加埃表示，在过去一年中，伊朗与中国和俄罗斯就"快速恢复制裁"机制，进行了富有成效的磋商，以跟 进核协议的执行情况。同时巴加埃批评欧洲国家将该机制用作威胁伊朗的工具。 (来源：Bloomberg） 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 3、\t美国财政部长贝森特表示，下一轮美中会谈可能讨论中国购买俄罗斯和伊朗石油的问题。对于上述消息，在7 月22日举行的中国外交部例行记者会上，外交部发言人郭嘉昆在回应外媒记者"中方对此有何评论"的提问时表示， 在关税问题上，中方立场是一贯和明确的，希望美方同中方一道落实两国元首通话达成的重要共识，发挥中美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks [8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with positive macro - factors, improved supply - demand fundamentals, and price increases in downstream products, the industrial silicon price has room for further growth if it is benchmarked against the full cost [3]. - For polysilicon, after the continuous increase in spot prices, they have stabilized. The futures price is above the full cost of most enterprises, and there may be room for growth if considering the recovery of storage, merger, and acquisition funds. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [8]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit the daily limit. The main contract 2509 opened at 9345 yuan/ton and closed at 9655 yuan/ton, a change of 5.98% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 380961 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50053 lots, a decrease of 88 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and the price of 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Consumption Side**: Affected by the strong drive of industrial silicon on the cost side and the supply concerns caused by an incident at a Shandong organic silicon factory, the prices of organic silicon products increased across the board. For example, the market price of DMC rose to 11600 - 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1200 yuan/ton [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 45880 yuan/ton and closing at 49105 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 192179 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 757482 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month change of - 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.70%) [6]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [8][9] Influencing Factors Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production and new capacity in the Northwest and Southwest regions [5] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [5] - Policy disturbances [5] - Macro and capital sentiment [5] - The start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5] Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - regulation on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises [9] - The driving effect of futures listing on the spot market [9] - The impact of capital sentiment [9] - Policy disturbances [9]

供应端：截至2025-07-22，企业产能利用率85.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为89.55 万吨（-7.22），港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨（+5.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-22，复合肥产能利用率32.55%（+2.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.06日（+0.12）。 宏观情绪持续向好，化工板块整体上涨，尿素盘面走强。尿素开工高位运行，供应端压力持续，中盈装置计划近 期检修，部分装置下旬仍有检修计划，预计将缓解部分供应压力。下游农业需求推进放缓，复合肥工业开工率提 升缓慢，其他工业需求维持弱势，下游刚需采购为主。出口将有序推进，集港意愿提升，港口库存持续提升，尿 素上游工厂库存走低。 策略 尿素日报 | 2025-07-23 情绪氛围影响，尿素持续上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-22，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：23 元/吨（ ...