石油沥青日报 | 2025-10-22 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场利好不足，盘面低位震荡 市场分析 1、10月21日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3157元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨13元/吨，涨幅 0.41%；持仓182020手，环比上涨14315手，成交168391手，环比上涨8384手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—4086元/吨；山东，3260—3620元/吨；华南，3340—3550元/吨； 华东，3410—3500元/吨。 昨日华北、山东、华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，华南地区小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格相对稳 定。原油以及沥青期货维持偏弱波动，利空沥青现货市场情绪。就沥青自身基本面而言，目前供需两弱格局延续， 但油价大跌对炼厂利润存在提振，供应端具备一定弹性。与此同时，沥青刚性需求整体表现疲软，下游采购情绪 偏弱，多数市场价格仍延续跌势。目前盘面反弹动力仍不足，等待宏观重要事件落地。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空，短期观望 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China's current butadiene plants are mainly integrated, with state - owned enterprises accounting for 81.22%, mostly concentrated in PetroChina and Sinopec. High production costs have led to the shutdown of most oxidation - dehydrogenation process plants [2][7][12] - The proportion of butadiene plants with downstream support is 42.7%, and state - owned plants in this category account for 67.66%, with nearly half located in East China [2][12][36] - The four major areas with high demand for butadiene are cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, accounting for 86.45% of the total demand. Their capacity changes and operating rates are the main factors affecting butadiene demand fluctuations [24][37] - Currently, East China is the main area with a butadiene shortage, while North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Central China have varying degrees of surplus. Despite this, China still imports some butadiene due to shortages of certain types [30][32][37] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Introduction - This is the third in the series of in - depth analyses of chemical plants, focusing on the ownership, distribution of butadiene upstream and downstream plants, and marginal plants. The topic is divided into two parts. The first part analyzes the butadiene plants themselves and the raw material balance between regional plants and their downstream counterparts, while the second part will detail the ownership, distribution, and marginal plants of each major downstream area of butadiene [6] 2. Butadiene Plant Analysis - **Capacity Ownership and Distribution**: As of now, there are 71 butadiene plants in China, including 7 shut - down, 8 under construction, and 56 in production. After excluding shut - down (430,000 tons) and under - construction (1.19 million tons) capacities, the total butadiene capacity is 7.137 million tons. State - owned enterprises account for 81.22%, private enterprises 13.03%, and foreign - funded enterprises 5.74%. Carbon - four extraction process plants account for 93.15%, and butene oxidation - dehydrogenation plants 6.85%. Most plants are integrated, with only a few needing to purchase external raw materials [7] - **Shut - down Plants**: Shut - down plants are mainly in East China (5 plants, 370,000 tons) and North China (2 plants, 60,000 tons). Five are state - owned (250,000 tons, 58%), and 2 are private (180,000 tons, 42%). Most shut - down plants use the oxidation - dehydrogenation process due to high production costs [8] - **Under - construction Plants**: There are 8 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 1.19 million tons. Three are in East China (360,000 tons, 30.25%), 2 in Northeast China (360,000 tons, 30.25%), and the rest in South China, Northwest China, and Central China. The capacity with downstream support is 480,000 tons, accounting for 40.33% [8] - **In - production Plants**: Among the 56 in - production plants, 30 are in East China (3.743 million tons, 52.45%), 8 in South China (1.095 million tons, 15.34%), 7 in Northeast China (930,000 tons, 13%), 4 in North China (575,000 tons, 8%), 3 in Northwest China (404,000 tons), 3 in Central China (240,000 tons), and 1 in Southwest China (150,000 tons). State - owned capacity accounts for 48.8% of the total 6.937 million tons [9][10] 3. Marginal Capacity Analysis of Butadiene - **Plants with Downstream Support**: There are 20 existing plants with a total capacity of 3.076 million tons, accounting for 43.1%. There are also 3 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 480,000 tons, expected to be completed from the fourth quarter of this year to 2026 and 2027. Thirteen are state - owned (2.026 million tons, 65.86%), 3 are mixed - ownership (700,000 tons), 3 are private (220,000 tons), and 1 is a Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan joint - venture (130,000 tons). Eleven are in East China (1.661 million tons, 54%) [16] - **Plants without Downstream Support**: There are currently 36 plants with a total capacity of 4.061 million tons. There are also 5 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 710,000 tons. Five plants were shut down between 2008 and 2017, involving a total capacity of 340,000 tons. After excluding shut - down and under - construction capacities, the capacity of plants without downstream support accounts for 43.1% of the existing total. Nineteen are in East China (2.082 million tons), 7 in South China (945,000 tons), 3 in North China (440,000 tons), 3 in Central China (240,000 tons), 3 in Northeast China (290,000 tons), and 1 in Northwest China (64,000 tons). Twenty - six are state - owned (3.071 million tons), 8 are private (710,000 tons), 1 is foreign - owned (200,000 tons), and 1 is a Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan joint - venture (80,000 tons) [16][17][18] 4. Butadiene Downstream Demand Proportion and Regional Raw Material Balance Analysis - **Downstream Demand Distribution**: Butadiene is widely used downstream, mainly in cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, SBS, ESBS, and nitrile rubber, as well as two latex categories (nitrile latex and styrene - butadiene latex). The four major demand areas (cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS) account for 86.45% of the total demand. For downstream plants with external raw material procurement needs, the top four demand areas remain the same, but the structure changes. The external procurement capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is significantly smaller than that of SBS, and the external procurement capacity of nitrile latex also accounts for a large proportion [24] - **Regional Raw Material Balance Analysis**: By matching the external sales volume of butadiene in major regions with the external procurement demand of downstream areas, it is found that East China is the main area with a butadiene shortage, while North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Central China have varying degrees of surplus. The total surplus capacity is basically the same as the shortage capacity, indicating that China's butadiene plants are generally self - sufficient. However, due to shortages of certain types, China still imports some butadiene every year, mainly from South Korea, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States [30][31][32]

期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-10-21 船舶 LNG 燃料的发展现状与前景展望 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 ■ 环保法规强制约束，LNG 成为重要合规方案之一 为应对 IMO 2023 与 IMO 限硫令等日趋严格的环保法规，航运业被迫寻求传统燃油的 替代品。LNG 凭借其在硫氧化物、氮氧化物和颗粒物减排上的天然优势，为船东提供 了满足现行排放标准的成熟技术方案，有效规避了安装脱硫塔的高昂成本与不确定性， 成为驱动船用燃料变革初期的核心政策受益者。 ■ 减排与增排双重效应，甲烷问题成核心挑战 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 目录 | | --- | | 内容摘要 1 | | --- | | LNG 船舶燃料的政策背景 3 | | IMO 2020 全球限硫令 3 ...

研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 封帆 021-60827969 王育武 投资咨询号：Z0022466 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|新能源&有色专题 2025-10-21 前期锌一致性利空因素悄然发生转变 报告摘要 2025 年锌价看空的逻辑主要源于矿端供应修复后国内冶炼端供给端的快速增加， 逻辑演绎 10 个月后，锌价从高点 25000 元/吨下跌至 22000 元/吨。站在当下，虽然国 内供给压力依旧没有改变，但基本面因素悄然发生了边际变化。在微观数据难以进一 步利空，而宏观数据进一步向上的背景下，锌价的回落或已告一段落。 1、国产矿供给增长不及预期，因锌价外强内弱格局的延续，造成国产矿性价比更高， 在当前国产高海拔矿山即将进入冬季停产期以及冶炼厂存在冬储需求的情况下，国产 矿 TC 开始回落。海外矿供应虽然如预期增长，但是同样存在 TC 后期跟随下滑的可 能。 2、当前国内冶炼供给压力依旧，但由于 TC 价格回落，冶炼利润被压缩，这可能会影 响后期的冶炼积极性。此外海外出现了仓单风险，锌锭出口窗口打开，这可能造成国 内社会库存累库幅度不及预期，若出现社 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-21 中美关系风险缓释，股指反弹 市场分析 中美将谈判。宏观方面，二十届四中全会10月20日上午在北京开始举行，中央委员会总书记习近平代表中央政治 局向全会作工作报告，并就《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议（讨论稿）》向全会 作了说明。经济数据方面，国家统计局发布数据，前三季度我国GDP同比增长5.2%，其中，一季度增长5.4%，二 季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，社会消费品零售总额增长3%。前 三季度，全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%，扣除房地产开发投资后增长3%；居民人均可支配收入32509元，扣除 价格因素实际增长5.2%。中美关系方面，特朗普表示，美方将稀土、芬太尼和大豆列为将对中方提出的三大问题。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，沪指涨0.63%收于3863.89点，创业板指涨1.98%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，通信、煤炭、电力设备、机械设备行业领涨，有色金属、农林牧渔、美容护理行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额降至1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.37 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-10-21 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期权成交量 2025-10-20，上证50ETF期权成交量为174.02万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为195.42万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为234.77万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为12.45万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为276.42万张；上证50股指期权成交量为2.72万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为22.84万张；中证1000期权总成交量为21.04万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.76，环比变动为+0.04；持仓量PCR报0.79，环比变动为-0.01； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.00，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报0.98，环比变动为+0.03； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.25，环比变动为-0.40；持仓量PCR报1.08，环比变动为+0.03 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.25 ，环比变动为-0.68；持仓量PCR报1.22；环比变动为+0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on October 20, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - Multiple figures are used to show the trading - holding ratio, transaction amount change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and transaction amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On October 20, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 707.913 billion yuan, a 26.46% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1258.663 billion yuan, a 2.50% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 55.88%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the stock index plate [1][5] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On October 20, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 365.097 billion yuan, a 0.38% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 811.886 billion yuan, a 1.87% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 44.77%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][5] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On October 20, 2025, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 343.366 billion yuan, a 7.22% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 522.558 billion yuan, a 0.10% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 65.34%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 1622.201 billion yuan, a 3.11% increase; the holding amount was 514.839 billion yuan, a 5.58% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 395.70%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the metal plate [1][5] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On October 20, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 364.539 billion yuan, an 8.64% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 444.413 billion yuan, a 0.31% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 70.33%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each major variety in the energy and chemical plate [1][5] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On October 20, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 322.678 billion yuan, a 4.22% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 568.290 billion yuan, a 0.77% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 51.36%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each major variety in the agricultural products plate [1][5] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On October 20, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 274.430 billion yuan, a 16.23% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 358.618 billion yuan, a 1.98% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 74.05%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 下游刚需采购为主 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-20，沪铜主力合约开于 84660元/吨，收于 85380元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.17%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 85220元/吨，收于 85670元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.34%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货升水10-110元/吨，均价60元/吨，较前日微涨5元。电铜价格区间85270~85990 元/吨。期铜早间自85000元/吨持续上行，盘中触及85900元/吨高位，跨月价差维持Contango结构，进口亏损收敛至 约800元/吨。市场交投情绪仍显清淡，采购与销售指数分别为3.05和3.13。周末到货增多促使持货商积极出货，但 高铜价抑制下游接货意愿，平水铜成交回落至升水10-60元/吨。预计今日高铜价下刚需采购为主，货源补充将限制 升水上行空间。 重要资讯汇总： 美国政府方面，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，他认为政府停摆可能在本周某个时候结束；但如果这 种情况没有发生，白宫将考虑采取更强有力的措施，以促使民主党人参与谈判。 ...

航运日报 | 2025-10-21 10月20日SCFIS略超预期，关注 马士基11月第一周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹43周报价1100/1840，44周报价1095/1830；HPL -SPOT 10月下半月价格 1185/1935；11月上半月价格1535/2535，11月下半月船期报价1735/2835。HPL发布最新涨价函，11月1日之后运价 涨至1500/2500；马士基发布11月份涨价函，11月3日之后价格涨至1625/2500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065,11月上半月船期报价1545/2565；ONE 10月下半月价 格975/1535，11月上半月船期报价1625/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格1118/1806; YML 10/21-10/31报价 800/1350。MSC发布11/1-11/15日涨价函 1620/2700。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格介于2108-2158美元/FEU，11月上半月船期报价1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-21 郑棉低位反弹，关注中美谈判进展 中性。当前新棉仍处于集中上市阶段，新年度增产预期仍存，盘面上方仍面临较大的套保压力，叠加下游旺季不 旺，需求面支撑不足，短期棉价或仍有再度走弱的风险。中长期来看，新年度国内期初库存偏低而且消费仍具韧 性，供需预计不会太宽松，季节性压力之后棉价偏乐观对待。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13465元/吨，较前一日变动+130元/吨，幅度+0.97%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14552元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，现货基差CF01+1087，较前一日变动-95；3128B棉全国均价14679元/ 吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，现货基差CF01+1214，较前一日变动-130。 近期市场资讯，据印度棉花协会（CAI）最新发布的9月供需平衡表，2024/25年度产量预期531.1万吨；进口预期69.7 万吨；消费和出口预期分别在533.8万吨和30.6万吨。基于以上，印度棉花期末库存维持103万吨不变。从分区域产 量调整情况来看，9月中部棉区环比微减，南部棉区 ...