甲醇日报 | 2025-07-23 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤450元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润615元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1990元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差133元/吨（-46），内蒙南线1990元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2335元/吨（+35），鲁 南基差78元/吨（-11）；河南2170元/吨（+10），河南基差-87元/吨（-36）；河北2190元/吨（+0），河北基差-7元/吨（-46）。 隆众内地工厂库存352340吨（-4560），西北工厂库存218000吨（-10000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单243119吨（+21879）， 西北工厂待发订单113600吨（+13600）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2412元/吨（+14），太仓基差-45元/吨（-32），CFR中国275美元/吨（+2），华东进口价差-20元/ 吨（-2），常州甲醇2410元/吨；广东甲醇2410元/吨（+10），广东基差-47元/吨（-36）。隆众港口总库存790200吨 （+71300），江苏港口库存454000吨（+59000），浙江港口库存180000吨（+4500），广东港口库存106 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The supply - demand structure of oils is stable, the expectation of loose supply remains unchanged, and with the support of biodiesel, the prices will continue to oscillate [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,926.00 yuan/ton, a change of +16 yuan or +0.18% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,076.00 yuan/ton, a change of -16.00 yuan or -0.20%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,477.00 yuan/ton, a change of -86.00 yuan or -0.90% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,960.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P09 + 34.00, a change of -6.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,210.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan/ton or -0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 134.00, a change of -4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580.00 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan or -0.83%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 103.00, a change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market News - Russia cuts its 2025 wheat production forecast to 88 - 90 million tons from 90 million tons and its 2025/26 market - year wheat export forecast to 43 - 44 million tons from 45 million tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 reached 1.26 million tons, a high level, but the inventory rose to an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. Kenya became the second - largest buyer of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of 2025, and is expected to import 1.3 million tons for the whole year. Shipments from July 1 - 20 are estimated at 486,404 tons, down 35.99% from the same period last month [2] - China's soybean imports in May and June hit record highs, leading to a short - term accumulation of soybean stocks. Since July, with the decline in imported soybean arrivals and high crushing volume, soybean stocks have declined for two consecutive weeks and are at the lowest level in nearly two months. As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans was 6.832 million tons, a decrease of 272,000 tons from last week [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-23 早熟果上市量增加，关注新季果品质 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7929元/吨，较前一日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.08%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-29，较前一日变动-6；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1671，较前一日变动-6。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库存货源交易氛围仍显一般，西部产区货源剩余不多，部分冷库对水烂点货源存急售心 理，现货商发自存货源为主，早熟果纸袋秦阳陆续上市交易。山东产区客商拿货仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。剩余货 源结构多以中大果居多，走货不快。销区市场需求不佳，近期南方销区台风多雨天气，走货不快。陕西洛川产区 目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤， 果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-23 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面大幅上涨。现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，以刚需为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃的供给基本持稳，目前处于消费淡季，玻璃库存有所去化，但是整体仍维持高位，去库压力依 旧较大。长期来看，玻璃供需仍偏宽松，持续关注后续玻璃厂冷修计划及玻璃利润情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面大幅上涨。现货方面，下游成交跟随盘面震荡有所波动，以观望为主。 供需与逻辑：供应方面，纯碱复产及检修情况并存，产量环比持稳。目前处于夏季检修阶段，预计纯碱开工率将 维持在偏低水平。后续随着光伏玻璃"反内卷"减产，纯碱需求有进一步走弱预期，全年库存压力较大。持续关注 纯碱产线间歇性检修及投产情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 煤炭供应扰动，商品估值抬升 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪乐观，玻碱持续上行 市场分析 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：市场情绪积极，合金震荡偏强 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日锰硅期货延续偏强，现货方面，市场信心偏强，现供应商挺价心态较浓，6517北方市场价格5680-5730 元/吨，南方市场价格5700- ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-23 出栏有所增加，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14380元/吨，较前交易日变动+15.00元/吨，幅度+0.10%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.39元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+10，较前交易日变动-65；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 14.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.18元/公斤，现货基差LH09+170，较前交易日变动-195；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.62元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-760，较前交易日变动-15。 据农业农村部监测，7月22日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.77，比昨天下降0.14个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.82，比昨天下降0.16个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.74元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉64.08 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉59.50元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.26 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%。 市场分析 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-23 局部现货价格下跌，市场情绪一般 市场分析 1、7月22日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3609元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌52元/吨，跌幅 1.42%；持仓203931手，环比下降19429手，成交238574手，环比上涨96994手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3630—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及华南市场沥青现货价格均有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主，整体情绪一般。 目前原油价格震荡运行，强现实、弱预期的格局导致市场短期缺乏明确趋势，对沥青而言成本端方向指引有限， BU盘面也呈现震荡运行态势。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存处于低位，市场压力有限但 上行驱动不足，需要等待新的变量兑现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 氧化铝的仓单博弈仍在继续 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20940元/吨，较上一交易日上涨50元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌40元/吨至50元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20750元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌50元/吨至-120元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20910元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌25元/吨至45元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-22日沪铝主力合约开于20850元/吨，收于20900元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨155元/ 吨，涨幅0.75%，最高价达20955元/吨，最低价达到20790元/吨。全天交易日成交153418手，较上一交易日减 少67236手，全天交易日持仓330897手，较上一交易日增加13990手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存49.8万吨。截止2025-07-22，LME铝库存438450 吨，较前一交易日增加4025吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-22 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3225元/吨，山东价格录得3 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-23 煤矿供应扰动，商品估值抬升 钢材：市场情绪向好，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3264元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3431元/吨，期市交投氛围浓，成交量明显放大；现货价格 跟涨，成交情况一般偏好，昨日全国建材成交12.6万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，目前市场投机情绪较浓，建材目前正处于消费淡季，库存微增，产量小幅下滑，去库表 现略好于季节性预期。板材表现出较强消费韧性，维持供需两旺格局。近期破除"内卷式"竞争等政策利好频出， 刺激市场情绪向好。后续关注政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪向好，铁矿持续上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格持续上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于823.0元/吨，涨幅2.49%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格持涨运行，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏冷清，钢厂采购 多以刚需为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交123.3万吨，环比上涨30. ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-23 市场氛围平淡，盘面持续走低 市场分析 1、\t7月22日地区价格：山东市场，4580-4670；东北市场，4190-4380；华北市场，4530-4680；华东市场，4330-4600； 沿江市场，4500-4660；西北市场，4000-4200；华南市场，4548-4700。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷540美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，丁烷522美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4248元/吨，跌122元/吨，丁烷4107元/吨，跌121元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷534美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，丁烷519美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4201元/吨，跌122元/吨，丁烷4083元/吨，跌122元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG基本面当前表现疲软，市场氛围平淡，外盘丙丁烷与内盘盘面均弱势运行。现货方面，华东、西北区域价格 下调，其余区域主流价格维稳，卖方库存可控，下游按需采购为主。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，7月份到港量 再度增加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton prices are expected to oscillate, while Zhengzhou cotton has limited upside due to factors like new cotton supply and weak demand [2][3] - For sugar, the global sugar market anticipates an increase in production. Zhengzhou sugar prices will likely be range - bound in the short term and in a downward cycle in the long term [5][6] - For pulp, short - term macro - sentiment boosts prices, but supply pressure and weak demand will keep prices at a low level in the near future [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.28%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 20, the budding rate was 71%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 57%, 4 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is weak, and the global cotton market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. US cotton prices will oscillate [2] - Domestic: Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the quota is not issued, and imports will be low. However, new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is weak [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton 09 may rise, but the 01 contract has limited upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.27%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India: As of mid - July 2025, India exported 65 - 70 million tons of sugar, aiming for 80 million tons by September [4] Market Analysis - International: The market is trading the expectation of global sugar production increase, and the upside of raw sugar is limited [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar prices are firm, but imports are increasing, and there is pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, trade within the range; in the long term, sell on rallies [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,368 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,285 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is affected by the off - season. Terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, pulp prices may stay at the bottom. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [8]