1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The fuel oil market has narrow fluctuations and limited market contradictions. The cost - side support for FU and LU is weak due to insufficient rebound momentum in crude oil prices and the non - reversal of the oversupply expectation in the oil market. The fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors with limited overall driving forces [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the refining demand has marginally improved after the decline in cracking spreads and premiums. China's imports have recently increased, and attention should be paid to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Currently, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is still abundant [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria due to changes in device maintenance status. The expected low - sulfur oil shipments from Kuwait in December and January are 17,000 tons each, and the expected shipment from Nigeria in December is 80,000 tons [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed flat at 2,473 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.23% at 2,977 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices have insufficient rebound momentum, and the oversupply expectation in the oil market remains. The short - term oversold rebound cannot form an upward trend, resulting in weak cost - side support for FU and LU [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the cracking spreads and premiums have declined, driving marginal improvement in refinery demand. China's high - sulfur fuel oil imports have recently increased. Attention should be paid to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Currently, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is abundant without a shortage expectation [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria due to changes in device maintenance status. The expected low - sulfur oil shipments from Kuwait in December and January are 17,000 tons each, and the expected shipment from Nigeria in December is 80,000 tons. The incremental supply is currently low, and follow - up device and export dynamics should be monitored [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The industry presents a mixed picture with different trends in various sectors, and policies such as the "Two New" policy in 2026 and the automotive digital transformation plan will have an impact on relevant industries [1][2] Summary by Directory Middle - view Event Overview Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Digital Transformation of the Automotive Industry". By 2027, the intelligent manufacturing capability maturity level of benchmark vehicle manufacturers will be upgraded by one level, the digital level of component enterprises will be significantly improved, the penetration rate of R & D and design tools will exceed 95%, and the numerical control rate of key processes will exceed 70%. By 2030, the industry will achieve a high - level digital and intelligent development [1] Service Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026", supporting home appliance trade - in, new purchases of digital and smart products, and new purchases of smart home products with corresponding subsidy standards [2] Industry Overview Upstream - In the non - ferrous sector, copper prices continue to rise; in the energy sector, liquefied natural gas prices continue to fall; in the agricultural sector, the prices of pork, cotton, and palm oil rise slightly [3] Middle - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PTA and PX remain low; in the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants increases [4] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities continue to pick up; in the service sector, the number of domestic flights increases [5] Key Industry Price Indicators Tracking - Agricultural products such as corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork show price increases, with the price of pork rising by 2.19% [40] - Non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel also see price increases, with copper rising by 4.39% [40] - Energy products like WTI crude oil have a slight price increase of 0.12%, while Brent crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fall, with liquefied natural gas dropping by 5.39% [40] - Chemical products such as PTA have a price increase of 2.49%, while polyethylene and urea prices fall [40] - In the real estate - related sector, the cement price index and building materials comprehensive index decline slightly [40]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy, suggesting to wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - side long position on dips [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2602 in the afternoon session was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 118,184 lots, down 23,149 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 243,652 lots, up 6,073 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton, East China 3,000 - 3,120 yuan/ton, and South China 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable [1][2] - Although the overall rigid demand for asphalt is poor, the supply side is supported by tight local asphalt spot circulation. The pricing of the futures market has shifted to the southern region. With the reduction of supply from some refineries, market sentiment has improved compared to last week, showing a rebound expectation. However, the potential risk of supply interruption of Venezuelan crude oil is an upward risk. The market is intertwined with long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound needs a clearer signal [1] Group 3: Chart Information Summary - The report includes charts on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the month - to - month spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, the weekly asphalt production in China and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), and the consumption and inventory of asphalt [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by policy expectations, economic data, and geopolitical factors. There are opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, but also risks from geopolitical events, economic downturns, and Fed policies. It is recommended to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. The Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized policies. Multiple ministries responded, with the central bank considering monetary tools, the NDRC focusing on consumption and anti - "involution", and the Ministry of Finance on investment. The 2026 national subsidy plan was released, and China's November foreign trade rebounded while the economy was still under pressure. The on - shore RMB rose above 7, and the A - share market had mixed performance [2] - The Fed's December meeting announced short - term bond purchases and a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with expectations of future rate cuts. The US economic data was mixed, and Trump considered suing Powell and may announce the next Fed chair in January [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and also pay attention to the potential for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The non - ferrous supply shortage persists, and the energy sector faces production cuts and geopolitical risks. In the chemical sector, "anti - involution" opportunities exist, and in agriculture, pay attention to Sino - US trade and weather. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [4] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - Policies include equipment updates, consumer goods trade - ins, and housing sales tax regulations. Commodity futures had significant price movements, and there were multiple geopolitical events such as Trump's actions and Russia - Ukraine tensions [7]

策略 中性 阶段供应紧张，支撑豆油价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8658.00元/吨，环比变化+146元，幅度+1.72%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7878.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9086.00元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.51%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8590.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.18%，现货基差P05+-68.00，环比变 化-46.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8260.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%，现货基差Y05+382.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9830.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.92%，现货基差 OI05+744.00，环比变化+44.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西12月大豆出口量预计为302万吨， 之前一周预计为357万吨。巴西12月玉米出口量预计为352万吨，之前一周预计为635万吨。巴西12月豆粕出口量预 计为187万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: Sell put options [8] Core Viewpoints - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of metals like silver and copper have deviated significantly from fundamentals. Due to short - term supply bottlenecks, prices are supported, but there's a risk of price decline due to reduced year - end positions [8]. - High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the industry is expected to remain weak in the short term [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 30, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was 97,020 yuan/ton, closing at 98,090 yuan/ton, a 0.78% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 99,140 yuan/ton and closed at 99,220 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 330 yuan/ton to a premium of 150 yuan/ton against the main contract, with an average premium of 240 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 97,190 to 98,050 yuan/ton. The market was quiet, and it's expected to remain so on the last trading day of the year, with a possible slight narrowing of the spot discount [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed agreement on a rate cut, but there was in - depth debate on economic risks. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bills to maintain sufficient reserve supply and remove the total limit on standing repo operations [3] - **Mine End**: The Indian Supreme Court suspended a previous ruling on redefining the Aravalli Mountains, which aims to clarify protection and mining restrictions. The court will review the case on January 21, 2026, and the suspension of new mining leases remains in effect [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Starting from January 1, 2026, the provisional import tariffs for various copper products will be 0, unchanged from 2025 [5] - **Consumption**: The operating rates of refined copper rod and copper cable enterprises decreased. Under the influence of high copper prices, downstream procurement was weak, and inventories showed different trends. Next week, the operating rates of both industries are expected to decline slightly [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,450 tons to 149,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,860 tons to 71,738 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons on December 30, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - For copper, downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at current prices and increase buying hedging when prices fall to 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] - Arbitrage operations are suspended [8] - For options, sell put options [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Arbitrage: None available [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Maersk in the third week of January increased month - on - month, and the inflection point of freight rates still needs to be awaited. The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year. The valuation center of the 02 contract is constantly rising. The far - month contracts are facing the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are suppressed [1][4][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of December 30, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,662.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 33,696.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.10, 1160.20, 1370.00, 1500.10, 1056.00, and 1308.00 respectively [6] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1690/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $2188/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $3033/FEU. On December 29, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1301.41 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK2/3/4/5 were 314,900/278,900/333,100/298,000 TEU respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 274,500 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 were 316,800/319,200/217,800/244,400 TEU respectively. In January, there were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance). In February, there were 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance, 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings (1 by the OA Alliance, 2 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance). As of December 28, 2025, 260 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU [3][6] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, Hapag - Lloyd said that if the Suez Canal resumes navigation, it is likely to happen after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [5] V. Demand and European Economy - The report does not provide specific content on this part, but the cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year, and the signing process of long - term contracts by the OA Alliance and PA Alliance has accelerated [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is in a state of shock between the expectations of stabilizing growth and easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The bond market has experienced an over - decline and is in a repair phase, with the prices of treasury bond futures showing a differentiated trend. Influenced by the stock market, the Politburo meeting released a signal of loose money, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continued. Meanwhile, the increasing uncertainty in global trade added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [9]. - The social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year growth rate was 8.00%, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the previous period, with a decline rate of 2.44%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.22, with a month - on - month increase of 0.22 and a growth rate of 0.22%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9911, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.017 and a decline rate of 0.24%; SHIBOR 7 days was 1.59, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 1.99%; DR007 was 1.69, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09 and a growth rate of 5.83%; R007 was 1.51, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.31%; the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.61, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.47%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.47% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 30, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 105.82 yuan, 107.94 yuan, and 111.83 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, - 0.01%, - 0.02%, and 0.17% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.102 yuan, 0.048 yuan, 0.088 yuan, and 0.510 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - In November, the general public budget revenue slowed down year - on - year under the influence of a high base, but the annual revenue progress was still relatively fast, and the pressure to complete the first - account budget was not great. The fiscal support ability remained. The expenditure side showed a significant narrowing of the decline, with the pre - budgeted funds gradually turning into actual expenditures, and the structure was more inclined towards people's livelihood and investment in human resources. Infrastructure - related expenditures improved marginally but were still weak overall. Government - funded revenues continued to be dragged down by the real estate market, but the acceleration of special bond issuance drove the year - on - year growth of expenditures to turn positive, providing support for the broad fiscal situation [2]. - The financial data in November was generally weak. Credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans, and the long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, with loans significantly less than the same period last year. Although the social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, it was mainly due to corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing offsetting the weakness of government bonds and loans, reflecting that the willingness of the private sector to increase leverage remained insufficient. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined simultaneously, and the decline of current deposits was faster, indicating weak capital turnover and economic vitality in the real sector [2]. - On December 30, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [2]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.247%, 1.589%, 1.869%, and 1.585% respectively, and the repurchase rates had rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview The report provides various charts showing the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [32][33][37]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts of the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [35][38][43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][63]. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term. Short - position holders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "strong in production areas, weak in sales areas." The supply side is supported by high - volume and high - premium state reserve auctions, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among traders and tight market supply. The demand side is weak, with processing enterprises having low purchasing willingness. The future market trend depends on the game between supply - side hoarding sentiment and demand - side actual purchasing power [2] - The peanut market has an increasing domestic supply. As the New Year's Day approaches, the trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast production area has improved slightly, with prices showing a stable - to - strong trend. However, the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading of common peanuts in Henan has slowed down, with prices showing a stable - to - weak trend. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking trends [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract yesterday was 4224.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.64%. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 76, a change of - 8 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] Market Information - Recently, the Northeast soybean market has received policy support, and the active state reserve auctions have boosted market sentiment. The actual downstream demand is still flat, and the price is generally stable. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract fluctuated upward. The supply - demand in the southern market is at a low level, and the price is generally stable. The state reserve auctions have strengthened the price - holding sentiment in production areas, resulting in tight market supply. The demand side is weak, and it is difficult to drive the market continuously [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7968.00 yuan/ton, a change of +26.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.33%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8045.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.24%. The spot basis was PK03 - 968.00, a change of - 26.00 from the previous day, an increase of +2.76% [3] Market Information - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was 4.03 yuan/jin, showing a stable - to - rising trend. The prices of different peanut varieties in different regions and the procurement prices of oil mills are provided [3] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated upward. The domestic peanut supply has been increasing. The trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast has improved slightly, while the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading in Henan has slowed down [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report The supply of the propylene market may be temporarily tight in the short term, while the demand recovery is limited. The cost side has strengthened recently, and the subsequent focus is on cost changes and PDH device shutdowns. It is recommended to cautiously go long on hedging at low prices [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 5793 yuan/ton (+12), the East China spot price is 5900 yuan/ton (+50), the North China spot price is 5725 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is 107 yuan/ton (+38), and the North China basis is -285 yuan/ton (-127) [2] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 75% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 207 US dollars/ton (+8), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 38 US dollars/ton (+7), and the import profit is -368 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 38% (+0.69%), production profit is -25 yuan/ton (+0); propylene oxide operating rate is 74% (-2%), production profit is 372 yuan/ton (+230); n-butanol operating rate is 80% (+2%), production profit is 489 yuan/ton (+50); octanol operating rate is 85% (+3%), production profit is 806 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 80% (+0%), production profit is 286 yuan/ton (-36); acrylonitrile operating rate is 80% (+0%), production profit is -565 yuan/ton (-96); phenol - acetone operating rate is 79% (+3%), production profit is -902 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 4. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 46010 tons (-550) [2]