宏观日报 | 2025-09-17 关注下游扩大服务消费政策 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）9月16日，2025腾讯全球数字生态大会在深圳举行，会上公布多项AI技术和产品最新进展，并宣布 全面开放腾讯AI落地能力及优势场景。面对各界关注的算力问题，腾讯集团副总裁、腾讯云总裁邱跃鹏宣布，目 前腾讯已经全面适配主流的国产芯片，并积极参与和回馈开源社区。与此同时，软硬件协同全栈优化是腾讯云的 长期战略投入，通过异构计算平台的软件能力，整合不同类型的芯片对外提供高性价比的AI算力。 服务行业： 1）商务部等9部门9月16日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面19条举措，包 括开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知名IP跨界合作；因地制宜延长热门文博场馆、景区营 业时间，优化预约方式，鼓励推行免预约；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政策等。增加优质服务供给，更好满足 人民群众多样化服务消费需求。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：玻璃价格回落，煤炭库存升高。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回升超10%。 中游：1）化工：PX、PTA开工率近期回升。 下游：1）地产：一、二、三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Steel**: Due to stricter production restrictions in Tangshan, the steel price center has shifted upwards. Although there are increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure in the building materials sector under inventory pressure, the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and expectations of domestic policy intensification, as well as the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, steel prices are showing strength [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holidays, the sentiment is positive, and iron ore prices are oscillating upwards. The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week, and the demand is high with a substantial rebound in hot metal production. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coke production is restricted, and the prices of coking coal and coke have risen significantly. The second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down. With the release of downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand and expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: Due to pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream users, the coal price continues to rise. The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated upwards. The overall spot trading was average, with better low - price trading and weaker trading after price increases. Most regional basis shrank, and there was basis trading in some areas. The national building materials trading volume was 11050 tons. Due to poor air quality in Tangshan, some steel mills took blast furnace stoking measures [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Under the current inventory pressure, the fundamental contradictions in building materials have increased, and the price is under pressure. The plate demand remains resilient, and the fundamentals are stable with a relatively strong price. Attention should be paid to the improvement in demand. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there are stronger expectations of domestic policy intensification, and the steel price is showing strength under the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore in the national main ports was 1.394 million tons, a 45.21% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.23 million tons (10 transactions), a 31.86% decrease from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 36000 tons). Tangshan required some steel mills to limit sintering production, which will affect iron ore consumption in the short term [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In terms of supply, the global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production has rebounded substantially, and the demand for iron ore is high. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating cargo volume on port arrivals and the steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling rhythm [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke rose significantly. In the spot market, the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down and punished. The port market sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The import coal trading activity is high. Tangshan's meeting required local coking enterprises to extend the coking time by 30%, which will suppress coke consumption in the short term [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, with the continuous increase in finished - product prices, steel mills' profits have expanded, and production enthusiasm has improved, maintaining rigid demand. For coking coal, the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has been continuously reduced. With expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to oscillate strongly. There are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas continue to rise, and the demand from terminal customers such as chemical and cement industries is good. Some downstream customers still have pre - holiday stockpiling plans. In the port market, the sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes and a small amount of downstream inquiry demand. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the quotes of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In terms of imports, the decline in domestic coal prices has narrowed, the price of imported high - calorie coal is basically stable, and the price of low - calorie coal has rebounded, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between domestic and imported coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stockpiling of non - power coal [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage; Cross - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro support has strengthened, black - series commodities led the rise, driving a slight rebound in polyolefins. Some upstream petrochemical plants are under maintenance, with capacity utilization slightly decreasing. New capacity is expected to be put into production, and supply is expected to remain at a high level, with large inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. The international oil price has rebounded, and the propane price has continued to rise, strengthening the cost - side support [2] Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [18][20][21] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread - It includes the price spreads of HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [27][34][35] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - It covers the import profit of LL, the price difference between LL FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR, the import profit of PP, the export profit of PP (to Southeast Asia), the price difference between PP homopolymer injection FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB and China CFR, and the export profit of LL [41][45][52] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - It includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and the operating rates of PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [61][62][72] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - It involves the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [74][77][88]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.11%); the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons, up 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 94,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains high, and there are still many overseas supply losses. There are two or more Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still postponed for shipment. The import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, the demand recovery is slow, and the order connection is insufficient. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly balanced, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, suppress market sentiment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - Not elaborated in the text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand recovery is slow, the order connection is insufficient, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 94,000 tons [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 79,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent disruptions on the copper supply side, with continuously low TC prices. The scrap copper industry is in a policy pain - period with unstable supply. Although current demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, the current copper price may maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern. One can conduct buy - hedging on dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On September 16, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 80,880 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main SHFE copper contract opened at 81,010 yuan/ton and closed at 80,900 yuan/ton, up 0.02% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 10 - 140 yuan/ton to the current 2510 contract, with an average of 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The electrolytic copper price ranged from 80,880 to 81,360 yuan/ton. The SHFE 2510 contract dropped from 81,380 yuan/ton in the morning to around 80,700 yuan/ton before noon. The cross - month spread was close to par, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton. After the copper price fell below 81,000 yuan/ton, the downstream's willingness to fix prices increased slightly. In the Shanghai area, the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were 3.09 and 3.11 respectively. Some brands in the spot market were in short supply, with the mainstream transaction premium at 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the wet - process copper at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term copper price will remain in a high - level shock, and the spot premium may continue the stalemate [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Overseas macro: The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 votes, and President Trump signed the appointment document. Milan can participate in this month's Fed interest - rate meeting and has the right to vote, which may lead to market doubts about the Fed's independence. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed governor Cook could continue to serve, rejecting the Trump administration's emergency application to dismiss her. The White House spokesman said the Trump administration would appeal the court's ruling [3]. - Tariffs: The US Department of Commerce announced that the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope authorized by President Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. It will also consider the industry's request to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the next few weeks [3]. - Mine end: On September 16, according to the memorandum of understanding signed and announced in February 2025, Anglo American has reached an agreement through its Chilean subsidiary Anglo American Sur (AAS) and Codelco to formulate a joint mining plan for their adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, the joint mining plan will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, expected to start in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation and minimal incremental capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase (NPV) of at least $5 billion, with the benefits shared equally by both parties [4]. - Smelting and import: Chile, a major copper - producing country, expects that despite setbacks at two major copper mines, this year's copper production will still increase, providing some relief to the tight global market. Although there were problems at Codelco's No. 1 mine and a tailings issue at a Teck Resources company, BHP Group's large Escondida mine had a 11% year - on - year production increase in the first half of this year, the Collahuasi mine will get out of the low - grade ore situation, and the El Salvador mine after major maintenance has started to increase production. The mining minister, Aurora Williams, said that copper production is still expected to increase in the next two years and reach a record 6 million tons by 2027 [5]. - Consumption: According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on September 11, from January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. Compared with the first seven months, the production growth rate remained flat, and the sales growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points. From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales [5]. 3.1.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,325 tons to 150,950 tons from the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,049 tons to 33,692 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. One can conduct buy - hedging on dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: short put @ 79,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data | | | 2025 - 09 - 17 | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 10 | 2025 - 08 - 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount)** | SMM: 1 copper | 75 | 80 | 90 | 180 | | | Premium copper | 125 | 110 | 125 | 210 | | | Flat - water copper | 50 | 50 | 40 | 150 | | | Wet - process copper | - 35 | - 70 | - 40 | 15 | | | Yangshan premium | 56 | 58 | 61 | 55 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 62 | - 73 | - 81 | - 94 | | **Inventory** | LME | 150,950 | 152,625 | 155,275 | 155,600 | | | SHFE | 94,054 | | 81,851 | | | | COMEX | 282,903 | 281,669 | 277,398 | 244,093 | | **Warehouse Receipts** | SHFE warehouse receipts | 33,692 | 30,643 | 19,081 | 24,560 | | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 11.25% | 13.46% | 14.25% | 7.41% | | | CU12 - CU10 (Continuous - third - near - month) | 0 | - 100 | - 60 | | | | CU11 - CU10 (Main - near - month) | 0 | - 60 | - 30 | - 110 | | **Arbitrage** | CU11/AL11 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 3.84 | 3.81 | | | CU11/ZN11 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.60 | 3.51 | | | Import profit | - 229 | - 139 | 5 | 145 | [30][31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of stock index options on September 16, 2025 [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Trading Volume - On September 16, 2025, the trading volumes of different options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF options (Shanghai market) had 111.43 million contracts; CSI 500ETF options (Shanghai market) had 136.31 million contracts; Shenzhen 100ETF options had 11.45 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 204.60 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 50ETF options had 87.34 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 stock index options had 3.75 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index options had 13.37 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options had 37.50 million contracts [1] - A table also showed the call, put, and total trading volumes of various stock index ETF options on the same day [19] 3.2 Option PCR - The PCR data of different options on September 16, 2025, were presented. For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50ETF options was 0.73 with a + 0.14 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 0.81 with a - 0.03 change [2] - Similar data were provided for other options such as Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF options, CSI 500ETF options, etc [2] 3.3 Option VIX - The VIX data of different options on September 16, 2025, were given. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50ETF options was 19.45% with a + 0.07% change compared to the previous period [3] - Other options like Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF options, CSI 500ETF options also had their respective VIX values and changes presented [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [9] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - Polysilicon: The new energy consumption index has a long - term positive impact but limited short - term influence. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of 0.85% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 287184 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49872 lots, a decrease of 33 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The prices in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang rose. The 97 - silicon price was slightly adjusted upward. The willingness of northern silicon enterprises to sell was positive, and their quotes were more advantageous than those of spot - futures traders. The increase in spot trading was less than that of the futures market [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The price of organic silicon DMC was stable. After two weeks of low - level operation, downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories, supported by pre - sold orders, were more willing to increase prices to stimulate orders and repair profit margins [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 opened high and closed low, with wide - range fluctuations. It opened at 55600 yuan/ton and closed at 53670 yuan/ton, a 0.51% change from the previous trading day. The position was 127779 lots, and the trading volume was 316394 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (with a 3.79% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a - 1.78% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31200.00 tons (a 3.31% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a 0.73% change) [6][7]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component Markets**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components were relatively stable [7]. - **Policy Impact**: The new energy consumption standard for polysilicon was more stringent. In the long run, it could control production capacity, but in the short term, the impact on supply might be limited as it was only a draft for comments [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price followed the futures price and increased slightly. The current fundamentals had little change. The futures market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there were policies for capacity withdrawal. If so, the futures price might rise [3]. Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals were average. The new energy consumption index had a long - term positive impact. The futures market was affected by policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. Participants should pay attention to risk management, follow the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to buy on dips [9].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-17 盘面窄幅波动，市场需求表现平淡 市场分析 1、9月16日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3411元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨13元/吨，涨幅 0.38%；持仓234581手，环比下降6096手，成交162489手，环比下跌41821手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3806—4086元/吨；山东，3480—3770元/吨；华南，3480—3540元/吨； 华东，3560—3700元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对于沥青价格方向指引有限，近日BU盘面表现相对原油端偏弱，裂解价差有所回落。现 货方面，昨日华北市场沥青价格小幅上涨，山东地区沥青现货价格明显下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。 尽管期货盘面小幅回升，但对沥青现货影响力度有限。多数地区终端需求改善乏力，叠加供应增量释放，市场观 望情绪浓厚，利好不足，市场情绪受到一定压制。整体来看，沥青市场自身基本面乏力，如果油价反弹力度不足， 盘面上行驱动仍较为有限。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [5] Group 2: Report's Core View - The internal - external ratio of zinc is widening, with the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continuing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with high supply pressure, increasing social inventory, and weak spot purchasing enthusiasm. Overseas, there is strong support from rising interest - rate cut expectations and continuous de - stocking. The internal - external ratio has further expanded, but the export window has not opened, and the contradiction between domestic and overseas markets remains [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $26.76 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 100 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On September 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,290 yuan per ton, closed at 22,255 yuan per ton (down 50 yuan from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 96,641 lots and a position of 84,991 lots. The highest price was 22,370 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of September 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,600 tons, a change of 6,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 48,975 tons, a change of - 1,175 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral; Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5]

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