市场要闻与数据 化工日报 | 2025-07-08 青岛港口库存继续小幅回升 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13970元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨。NR主力合约12040元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13850元/吨， 较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1655美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11150元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，进入下旬，半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善，国内市场进货压力较大，出口市场尚存支撑，多企 业延续控产，缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳，听闻，个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划，短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激，短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%。1- ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-08 宏观宽松延续，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

油料日报 | 2025-07-08 花生市场持续供需双弱格局，价格震荡偏弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4079.00元/吨，较前日变化-32.00元/吨，幅度-0.78%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+221，较前日变化+32，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：CBOT周五休市，周四，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘略微上涨，其中基准期约收高0.1%。 在美国独立日长周末前，空头回补及仓位调整活跃。不过尾盘因美国天气良好且全球供应充足而缩减涨幅。截至 收盘，大豆期货上涨1.25美分到5.75美分不等，其中7月期约上涨5.75美分，报收1056.25美分/蒲;8月期约上涨2美分， 报收1055.50美分/蒲;11月期约上涨1.25美分，报收1049.25美分/蒲。7月7日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江 齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-08 下游需求不足，尿素盘面走低 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-07，尿素主力收盘1748元/吨（+13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 72元/吨（-3）；河南基差：62元/吨（-13）；江苏基差：92元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+10），出口利润711 元/吨（-183）。 供应端：截至2025-07-07，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-07，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 虽然下游进入农业需求旺季，北方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，但下游工业需求不及预期，复合肥维持季节性淡 季，三聚氰胺开工低位运行。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。尿素 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-08 需求持续疲软，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14245元/吨，较前交易日变动-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.42%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格15.00元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+755，较前交易日变动-180；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.27元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1025，较前交易日变动-290；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.37元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+125，较前交易日变动-340。 据农业农村部监测，7月7日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.64，比上周五上升0.34个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.67，比上周五上升0.39个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.66元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%；牛 肉63.60元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%；羊肉59.54元/公斤，比上周五下降0.4%；鸡蛋7.06元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%； 白条鸡17.14元/公斤，比上周五上升0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market on July 4, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) for various stock index options such as上证50ETF期权,沪深300ETF期权, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of上证50ETF期权 was 1.6667 million contracts; 沪深300ETF期权 (Shanghai market) was 1.6003 million contracts; 中证500ETF期权 (Shanghai market) was 1.627 million contracts; 深证100ETF期权 was 0.0821 million contracts; 创业板ETF期权 was 1.5263 million contracts; 上证50股指期权 was 0.0593 million contracts; 沪深300股指期权 was 0.1381 million contracts; 中证1000期权 total trading volume was 0.2867 million contracts [1][21]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of上证50ETF期权 was reported at 0.60, with a month - on - month change of - 0.09; the position PCR was 1.07, with a month - on - month change of + 0.10. Similar data is provided for other options [2][31]. Option VIX - The VIX of上证50ETF期权 was reported at 14.29%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.30%. For other options, the VIX and their month - on - month changes are also presented [3][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the market liquidity situation on July 4, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared with the previous trading day for different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared with the previous trading day for multiple sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 625.937 billion yuan, a +60.52% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1095.323 billion yuan, a +9.99% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 56.94% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 268.997 billion yuan, a - 6.49% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 927.353 billion yuan, a +2.56% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 29.61% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 349.009 billion yuan, a +3.46% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 507.371 billion yuan, a - 1.34% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 89.73%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 343.446 billion yuan, a +3.64% change; the holding amount was 440.884 billion yuan, a - 1.21% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 86.21% [1]. V. Energy - Chemical Plate On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 477.24 billion yuan, a - 0.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 433.448 billion yuan, a +0.42% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 91.84% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 266.379 billion yuan, a - 3.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 559.453 billion yuan, a - 0.42% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 42.05% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate On July 4, 2025, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 254.961 billion yuan, a - 10.57% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 364.163 billion yuan, a +0.84% change; and the trading - holding ratio was 72.29% [2].

期货研究报告|丙烯专题 2025-07-07 丙烯系列报告-丙烯国内供应与进出口情况 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 从业资格号：F03119179 联系人 杨露露 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 丙烯装置的工艺以石脑油/轻烃裂解制丙烯装置和丙烷/混烷脱氢制丙烯为主，不同工艺 的生产利润是影响该工艺装置的开工率的最核心因素之一，其中 PDH 制丙烯工艺是利 润敏感度最高、反应速度最快的生产工艺。 我国需从海外进口大量丙烯满足国内需求，主要来自东北亚地区的韩国、日本，而出口 量保持极低水平，是丙烯的净进口国，随着近年国内丙烯产能快速扩张，装置大量投产 使得丙烯自给能力显著提升，国内丙烯市场以国内商品为主导，丙烯进口依存度持续走 ...

期货研究报告 | 宏观组 宏观半年报 回顾上半年，美元在关税政策反复下可能只是暂时性走弱。随着 1 月美国债务上限暂停的取消（美国），宏观平衡的要求下在 4 月加码 了关税战（全球），5 月发出了信用评级下调的警告（美国），最终到 6 月的地缘热点（中东）预计将开启这轮周期加速下行的序幕。 展望下半年，经济周期的下行或将进入尾声。在财政支出法案通过后，8 月联储货币政策框架的再次转型，将启动财政扩张的大幕。三 季度在周期下行现实和财政扩张预期之间，关注风险落地的可能加速，风雨过后将现彩虹。 全球宏观：周期还未到最低处 宏观组研究报告 本期分析研究员 徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 z 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 陈昊宇 从业资格号：F03130939 宏观组 | 宏观半年报 2025-07-06 全球宏观：周期还未到最低处 研究院 宏观组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱： xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].