Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are oscillating strongly recently, but due to many short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and the macro - environment and the expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium term, it's hard to form a strong trend, and the guidance for fuel oil price direction is limited, with the whole sector in an oscillating range [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the market re - balancing stage, with relatively abundant near - end supply and high inventory, but the pressure has eased compared to the previous period, and the market structure is stable. After the seasonal decline in power generation terminal demand, the market needs the recovery of refinery - end demand to achieve balance [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply pressure has increased due to the increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery after the RFCC unit shutdown. However, the volume of arbitrage cargoes in the Western region has declined, domestic production remains at a medium - low level, and domestic refineries have no significant tendency to increase production after the issuance of the third batch of quotas, so the change in the market structure is also limited [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to fuel oil, including spot prices, swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, futures contract closing prices, and trading volume and open interest of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and domestic markets, with units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton [3][11][13]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-18 静待降息落地，镍不锈钢价格震荡走低 镍品种 市场分析 2025-09-17日沪镍主力合约2510开于122580元/吨，收于121790元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.81%，当日成交量 为90734（-13858）手，持仓量为58829（-7709）手。 期货方面：今日沪镍 2510 合约呈现震荡下行走势，从盘面表现看，夜盘延续震荡走势，但日盘开盘后即承压下探， 盘中最低触及121,090元/吨，随后在121,500-121,800元区间窄幅波动，最终收于全天低位附近。市场正密切关注美 联储议息会议，尽管市场普遍预期降息 25 个基点，但决议前的谨慎情绪导致资金从商品市场撤离。美元指数小幅 上涨至 96.7344，对以美元计价的伦镍形成压制，进而拖累沪镍走势。 镍矿方面：市场维持平静，价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面，矿山报价坚挺。下游铁厂利润保持亏损，镍矿采购维持 谨慎。印尼方面，供应维持宽松，9月(二期)内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元，内贸升水方面，当前升水维持+24，升水 区间为+23-24。受镍铁价格上涨影响，矿端对后续升水持看涨情绪。 现货方面：金川集团 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies and measures to expand service consumption. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, introduce a series of policy documents, promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, and use structural monetary policy tools to increase capital supply in the consumption field. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out across the country, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the first since a nine-month pause. Powell said that employment growth has slowed, the risk of employment decline has increased, the labor market is less active than before and slightly weak; inflation has recently risen and is still slightly high; commodity inflation has accelerated, and the decline in service inflation continues; the risk of persistent inflation needs to be managed, and the inflation risk tends to the upside. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is expected to exceed 90% according to US interest rate futures [1]. Spot Market - A-share indices closed with an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3876.34 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automobile, coal, and home appliance industries leading the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and trade retail, and social service industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4 trillion yuan on the day. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.57% to 46018.32 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, this Friday is the delivery day of the current-month contract, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IH increased [2]. Strategy - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts such as the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [10][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 17, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, along with their daily changes [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the open interest and trading volume of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), as well as the basis (futures - spot) and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [15][36][44].

123456789:;<2025-09-18 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./012 ——!"#$%&'(3 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月利率决议，宣布降息 25bp，将利 率下调至在 4.00%-4.25%，符合预期。 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 !"#$$%&'$ 9 月 18 日，美联储如期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是 今年九个月以来的首次降息。声明内容相比 7 月有明显变化，美联储删除了 "劳动力市 场状况稳健" 的表述，新增 "就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，就业下行风险增加"，显 示对劳动力市场的担忧加剧。此次降息被定位为 "风险管理型" 降息，主要是为了应对 就业市场恶化的风险，而非通胀压力。FOMC 点阵图显示，今年内预计还将降息两次， 但内部分歧较大，仅有不到半数 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The 770th document of the National Development and Reform Commission in August 2025 included "tax rebates" in the list of illegal investment - promotion practices. Enterprises registered after May 2024 should cancel local retention rebates by the end of August, while those registered before can have a buffer until 2027. Some regions like Jiangxi and Anhui have already suspended rebates in September [2]. - The policy targets the "white - slip accounting" model in the recycled copper industry, and the practice of relying on local fiscal tax refunds of 4 - 6 percentage points is restricted, causing a sharp increase in enterprise costs [2]. - Referring to the experience of the lead industry, the recycled lead industry is in a "standardization pain period" with polarization. Leading enterprises adapt quickly, while small and medium - sized enterprises face challenges [3]. - When the scrap copper industry enters the "no - rebate era", enterprises should shift their competitiveness from "fiscal bonuses" to "real spreads", and investors should focus on local implementation rhythm and copper price rebound height [3]. Group 2: Background and Review - Since 2016, the policy orientation of the recycled metal industry has evolved from "environmental protection rectification" to "tax standardization". In the early stage, many small - scale scrap copper recycling workshops were shut down due to environmental non - compliance [10]. - Since 2019, policy focus has shifted to tax regulatory supervision. The "reverse invoicing" mechanism in 2024 marked the upgrade of the tax supervision system [10]. Group 3: Impact of Tax Policy on Domestic Scrap - related Enterprises Lead Industry Example - Before the "reverse invoicing" policy, the recycled lead industry had problems such as high tax costs, tax evasion, and environmental risks due to the lack of input tax deductions [11]. - After the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy, there were challenges such as data traceability difficulties, regional policy differences, and slow integration of individual recyclers [12][13]. - The recycled lead industry shows polarization. Leading enterprises' market share has reached over 50%, while small and medium - sized enterprises' capacity utilization has dropped from 75% to 45% [3][13]. Impact on Scrap Copper Enterprises - The 770th document affects the scrap copper industry. Enterprises relying on local fiscal tax refunds face cost - doubling pressure [20]. - In the worst - case scenario of full cancellation of rebates, the comprehensive tax rate of recycled copper enterprises will rise from 5.6% to 11.7% - 13.3%, and production capacity will shrink significantly. In the neutral scenario of partial cancellation, the impact is relatively mild [22]. - Enterprises should improve the proportion of taxable purchases at the raw material end, transfer taxes to downstream at the sales end, choose regions with long policy buffer periods, and use financial tools such as futures [3][24]. Group 4: Current Situation of Domestic Recycled Copper Rods - In the past 5 years, domestic recycled copper rod capacity has increased by nearly 400%, but there are many inefficient capacities. Since the second half of this year, enterprises have little profit [25]. - From January to July 2025, domestic scrap - produced blister copper output increased by 13.60% year - on - year, while scrap copper imports decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The loss of the US as an import source may limit future import growth [26]. Group 5: Summary and Hedging Strategy Suggestions - The government's rectification of recycled resources and tax norms aims to ensure the stable supply of important resources and eliminate unfair competition. However, it may impact raw material supply in the short term [4][28]. - Considering various factors, copper prices may remain strong from September to October. Enterprises with buying hedging needs are advised to buy on dips, and those with selling hedging needs should increase hedging efforts in the price range of 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [4][28].

./01234567892025-09-18 8 !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234 ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 17 日财政部公布 2025 年 1-8 月财政收支情况。其中：一般公共预 算收入同比增长 0.3%（增值税 3.2 %，个人所得税 8.9 %，印花税 27.4 %、企业所得税 增长 0.3 %；消费税 2 %、出口退税 9 %）；一般公共预算支出同比 3.1 %（社会保障和 就业 10 %；教育 5.6 %）。政府性基金预算收入同比-1.4 %（中央 0.6 %，地方-1.6 %）； 政府性基金预算支出同比 30 %（中央 3.1 倍，地方 18.8 %）。 &'"( ■ !"#$%& 一般公共预算收入：2025 年 1-8 月一般公共预算收入进度 67.4%，略低于过去五年同期 均值，名义增长的压力依然存在。8月 CPI同比下降 0.4%，维持低通胀的特征。累计增 速年扩大， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [2]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory decline and rising material costs, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,910 yuan/ton and closed at 122,610 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 104,592 (+1,913) lots, and the open interest was 66,538 (-4,072) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise to 123,550 yuan/ton in the night session, then slightly declined, and finally closed slightly higher. In the day session, it showed a volatile trend, closing at 122,610 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - In the nickel ore market, it remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes. Although downstream nickel - iron prices rose, domestic iron mills' profits remained in the red, and nickel ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, supply remained abundant, and the September (first - phase) domestic trade premium remained at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 124,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel bean's premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 (+1,208) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 226,434 (+1,950) tons [1]. - **Strategy** - For nickel, short - term trading should be mainly range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 16, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 13,080 yuan/ton and closed at 12,970 yuan/ton, a - 0.27% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 230,776 (+49,842) lots, and the open interest was 130,786 (-4,171) lots [2]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract rose to 13,140 yuan/ton after opening but then fell due to short - selling pressure, hitting a low of 12,940 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,970 yuan/ton, forming a "long upper shadow" pattern, indicating strong resistance around 13,100 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by about 27% compared with the previous day, but the open interest decreased, reflecting fierce competition between long and short sides at key price levels, and some funds chose to leave the market to wait and see [2]. - In the spot market, affected by the strong performance of the morning futures market, traders raised their quotes, but downstream acceptance was low, and actual transactions were light. Then, as the market weakened, quotes were lowered, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, and overall transaction volume was poor. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 275 - 575 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - For stainless steel, the unilateral strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern is good with consumption support during the peak season and continuous inventory reduction, so the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mine end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 16, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 73,900 yuan/ton and closed at 73,180 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 500,267 lots, and the open interest was 300,437 lots (309,446 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 610 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,824 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 71,900 - 73,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, both with a 400 - yuan/ton change from the previous day. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 820 US dollars/ton, a 10 - dollar/ton change from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material enterprises are still cautious and have weak purchasing willingness, with low market trading activity. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day inventory needs, they have stronger purchasing willingness at relatively low prices [1]. - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows synchronous growth in supply and demand, with a slightly tight overall supply - demand situation and a small inventory reduction [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, sell - hedging on rallies [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on September 16, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]. II. Stock Index Plate - On September 16, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 869.549 billion yuan, a +21.91% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1384.757 billion yuan, a +5.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 62.40% [1]. - There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][11][13]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - On September 16, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 574.17 billion yuan, a +56.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 767.467 billion yuan, a +4.46% change; the trading - holding ratio was 76.10% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18][23][22]. IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On September 16, 2025, the basic metals plate had a trading volume of 396.256 billion yuan, a +23.43% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 523.156 billion yuan, a - 0.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 92.22%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 411.974 billion yuan, a +22.96% change; the holding amount was 512.779 billion yuan, a +1.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.16% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][21][22]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On September 16, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 429.819 billion yuan, a +2.24% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 431.891 billion yuan, a - 1.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 88.26% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][27][28]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On September 16, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 306.461 billion yuan, a - 11.36% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 559.628 billion yuan, a +1.77% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.84% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][42][35]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On September 16, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 383.711 billion yuan, a +24.29% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 388.441 billion yuan, a +1.89% change; the trading - holding ratio was 95.71% [2]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][39][40].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-17 科技活跃，创业板收红 市场分析 政策促消费。国内方面，商务部等九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面19条举措，其中 8项与"高品质服务供给"有关。文件提出，开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知名IP跨界合 作；扩大电信、医疗、教育等领域开放试点；有序扩大单方面免签国家范围；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政策 等。文件还首次提出开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设。海外方面，美国8月零售销售额环比增长0.6%， 连续第三个月超预期增长。经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长2.1%，实现连续第11个月正增长。 指数震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数收盘震荡收红，沪指涨0.04%收于3861.87点，创业板指涨0.68%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，机械设备、计算机、商贸零售、汽车行业涨幅居前，农林牧渔、银行、有色金属、国防军工 行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额为2.3万亿元。海外方面，利率决议公布前夕，市场情绪偏谨慎，美国三大 股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.27%报45757.90点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，本周五当月合约交割，当日IH、I ...