需求延续弱势，压制反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-31 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，独山子石化2线与湛江巴斯夫临时检修，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，供应宽松压力持续，厂家让利降库为主；需求端，PE下游进入需求淡季，下游 整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜 开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延续累积，且LL和LD绝对社会 库存水平仍偏高，市场情绪谨慎下PE去库压力预期仍偏大。成本端国际油价近期反弹走高，成本面支撑有所回升。 总体来看需求淡季来临叠加供应端持续宽松，企业去库压力持续存在，现货端延续疲弱，基差偏弱，供需矛盾持 续压制价格。 PP方面，短期供需基本面变量有限，供应端，新增东华能源（宁波）检修，临时检修偏多使得PP开工环比下滑， 金能三线45万吨计划检修，1月存部分PDH装置预期检修，现货供应压力预期阶段性小幅缓解，供应端减量仍需等 待兑现；需求端，下游订单跟进有限，整体下游开工稳中下滑，仅BOPP开工维稳，形成一定需求支 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-31 EG延续累库，价格低位整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3847元/吨（较前一交易日变动+30元/吨，幅度+0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3702元/吨（较前一交易日变动+19元/吨，幅度+0.52%），EG华东现货基差-139元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-841 元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副港到港量4.3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, providing investment strategies based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and market news [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,384 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - In Pakistan, cotton area weather is mild and dry, with winter rainfall scarce. Daily arrival of seed cotton is below 1,550 tons, and total new cotton output is expected to be 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [1] Market Analysis - International: 12 - month USDA global cotton supply - demand adjustment is small. 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, with a slight increase in ending stocks. US cotton production increases, with increased inventory pressure. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, but long - term decline space is limited [2] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic cotton production increases significantly. As new cotton sales progress, hedging resistance weakens. Demand improves near holidays, but downstream orders decline, inventory rises, and demand weakens marginally [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to expanded spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, supply - demand is not expected to be loose. Considering the expected decline in Xinjiang's planting area, long - term cotton prices are bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be watched [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.10%). Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India's January 2026 sugar domestic sales quota is 2.2 million tons, down 50,000 tons from January 2025 [3] Market Analysis - International: 25/26 global sugar is in surplus. Short - term decline space is limited due to Brazil's harvest and India's slow exports, but rebound momentum is restricted [4] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic sugar production increases. Import pressure is high, but syrup control is tightening, and next year's syrup and premix imports may decrease [5] Strategy - Neutral. Domestic fundamentals are bearish. Although the valuation is low, the market may bottom out again, but the decline space is limited. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,568 yuan/ton yesterday, up 58 yuan/ton (+1.05%). Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market was stable. Futures fluctuated. Softwood pulp traders kept prices stable, and downstream procurement was cautious. Hardwood pulp supply was tight, and traders were reluctant to sell [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. Domtar closed Crofton paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will be shut down temporarily [7] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. Domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and future paper capacity expansion may support pulp prices [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival restocking expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand. Short - term pulp prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the increase depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-31 现货压力仍存，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2778元/吨，较前日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.14%；菜粕2605合约2403元/吨，较前 日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.67%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差 M05+322，较前日变动-4；江苏地区豆粕现货3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+282，较前日变动 +6；广东地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+292，较前日变动-4。福建地区菜粕 现货价格2610元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+207，较前日变动-16。 近期市场资讯，12月29日，美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年12月25日当周，美国大豆出口 检验量为75万吨，此前市场预估为75-120万吨，前一周修正后为92.9万吨，初值为87万吨。 市场分析 国内供应仍显宽松，油厂大豆及豆粕现货库存偏高，叠加南美较为强烈的丰产预期，05合约的价格跟随美豆价格 同步偏弱运行。短期来看，美豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a state of weak supply - demand, with the impact of macro - sentiment weakening. The overall supply is abundant, downstream开工 is slightly decreasing, and the overall profit is at a relatively low level year - on - year. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend. The supply side is at a high level of operation, and the non - aluminum demand is weakening. Attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine price, device maintenance dynamics, and the implementation of specific anti - involution rules on the macro side [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4810 yuan/ton (+33), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 270 yuan/ton (- 43) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4490 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4540 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 760 yuan/ton (+226), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 336 yuan/ton (+134), and the PVC export profit is - 16.1 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (- 2.2), the social PVC inventory is 51.4 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.7 tons (+4.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2273 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 76 yuan/ton (- 57) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 703 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1120 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1172 yuan/ton (- 20), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 564.7 yuan/ton (- 22.9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 237.33 yuan/ton (- 22.87), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+101.01) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda operation rate is 86.00% (+1.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.14% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously - maintained enterprises have resumed production, with a slight increase in supply. All new PVC devices in 2025 have been put into production, and the supply is still abundant [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operation rate has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises purchase on dips, and the trading volume is light when the price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the two festivals [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period [3]. - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end has been somewhat repaired due to the slight rebound of the caustic soda and PVC spot prices, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price has decreased, and the production profit is in a loss state; the semi - coke price has slightly decreased, and the profit is still in a loss state [3]. - Futures: The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period, and the hedging pressure on the futures price remains, continuously suppressing the PVC futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: As the devices resume production, the operation rate has slightly increased, and the overall operation is at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine is still positive and does not drag down the chlor - alkali profit. The price of liquid chlorine is difficult to fall, resulting in the high - level operation of caustic soda. The downstream of Shandong liquid chlorine will reduce the load at the end of December, and the liquid chlorine price is expected to further decline, and the cost support may strengthen [3]. - Demand: The operation rate of alumina plants is relatively stable, and the purchase price is stable. Some alumina plants expect the purchase price of caustic soda to decrease next month. The operation rates of non - aluminum industries such as textile printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, and pulp have decreased, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4][5]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel is expected to remain strong due to frequent positive policies from Indonesia, a long period of bottom - side oscillation, and attention from profit - seeking funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, despite a fundamental situation of high inventory and oversupply [2]. - Stainless steel prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating state, closely following the price trend of Shanghai nickel, with macro - level benefits being partially realized, continuous inventory reduction for four weeks, and weak downstream demand in the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 132,390 yuan/ton, up 3.86% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,000,602 (+215,362) lots, and the open interest was 149,624 (+1,821) lots. It showed a wide - range oscillating trend of opening low and moving high, accelerating the upward rush in the afternoon, and slightly falling back at the end. The intraday amplitude reached 7.0%, hitting a nine - month high. The price rebounded strongly under the continuous fermentation of the expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota cut, but there was significant divergence between bulls and bears due to policy uncertainty [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: Near the holiday, the nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited, and mines had a bullish expectation. Shipping efficiency was affected by increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron plants were eager to stock up in advance, which might slow down the price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore purchases. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price for January 2026 (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,798 (-712) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 (0) tons [1]. Strategy - The strategy is mainly based on range trading for single - side operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2602 opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 13,090 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 181,552 (+11,677) lots, and the open interest was 88,597 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend of opening low and moving high, with a relatively mild intraday fluctuation and an amplitude of about 2.1%, significantly smaller than that of Shanghai nickel. It rose driven by the strong rebound of Shanghai nickel, but its own weak fundamentals limited the increase, showing a pattern of "passive following + range oscillation" [2]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market trading enthusiasm increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods was average. After traders offered discounts, the transaction situation was relatively good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 60 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2][3]. Strategy - The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - Supply pressure is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.00 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,180 yuan/ton, closed at 23,380 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,502 lots, and the open interest was 93,470 lots. The highest price was 23,435 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,130 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - level has listed expanding domestic demand as the primary strategic task, and the national subsidy policy will continue to advance next year. The domestic financing balance has reached a new high again, market risk appetite is gradually warming up, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile repair trend on the last trading day before the holiday [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - policy**: In 2026, the national subsidy policy continues. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies and allocated the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in. The subsidy objects in 2026 include new smart products like smart glasses and smart home, and exclude home decoration and electric bicycles. New car purchase subsidies are 12% or 10% of the car price with the same upper limits as in 2025. The scope of home appliance subsidies is narrowed to 6 categories, and the subsidy ratio for first - level energy - efficiency home appliances drops from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance decreasing from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. Overseas, the Fed's December meeting minutes show that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates, but officials had significant differences [1] - **Index performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined to close at 3,965.12 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%. Among industries, petroleum and petrochemical, automobile, non - ferrous metals, and machinery equipment industries led the gains, while commerce and retail, real estate, and public utilities industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.24% to 23,419.08 points [1] - **Futures market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined on the day. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH, IC, and IM increased simultaneously [1] 3.2 Strategy - The high - level has listed expanding domestic demand as the primary strategic task, and the national subsidy policy will continue to advance next year. The domestic financing balance has reached a new high again, market risk appetite is gradually warming up, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile repair trend on the last trading day before the holiday [2] 3.3 Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [11][7] 3.4 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock index performance**: On 2025 - 12 - 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,965.12 points with a daily change of + 0.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,604.07 points with a + 0.49% change, the ChiNext Index at 3,242.90 points with a + 0.63% change, the CSI 300 Index at 4,651.28 points with a + 0.26% change, the SSE 50 Index at 3,036.55 points with a + 0.06% change, the CSI 500 Index at 7,458.94 points with a + 0.38% change, and the CSI 1000 Index at 7,597.30 points with a + 0.04% change [13] - Other charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the financing balance [14] 3.5 Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, the trading volume of IF is 94,429 (a change of - 1,730), and the open interest is 281,129 (a change of + 5,274) [15] - **Basis**: The basis data of different contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented. For instance, the current - month contract basis of IF is - 8.57 (a change of - 8.33) [40] - **Inter - delivery spread**: The inter - delivery spread data for different contract combinations (such as next month - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of IF is - 10.00 (a change of + 5.00) [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated cautiously bullish [13] Core Viewpoints - For RU and NR, the basis of RU is weakening, and the basis of NR fluctuates slightly, indicating weak spot price follow - up, especially with the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season, suggesting poor demand for whole - latex. The price difference between RU and NR has slightly widened recently. The fundamentals change little. With domestic rubber - cutting approaching, raw material prices depend on the Thai production area. The cost support for rubber is strong, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, and inventory accumulation will continue in China. - For BR, the supply is relatively stable, and the upstream production profit has slightly improved. During the New Year's Day holiday in China, the downstream tire operating rate is expected to decline. The supply - demand drive is insufficient, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation pressure. However, with the strong raw material price of butadiene, BR is expected to maintain a strong operation under cost support [13] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract is 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,875 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber is 1,805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Natural Rubber Import - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption Forecast - The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November will drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption will drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to drop 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2] Tire Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Some domestic tire enterprises are under production and sales pressure. During the "New Year's Day" holiday in 2026, some sample enterprises plan to have maintenance for 3 - 5 days. The number of all - steel tire enterprises for maintenance is more than that of semi - steel tire enterprises. Some enterprises' maintenance plans are still undetermined, and most enterprises have no maintenance plans [2] Enterprise Production Plan in January 2026 - In January 2026, enterprises will enter the pre - holiday inventory preparation stage. After a short - term maintenance, production will gradually resume. Enterprises will maintain normal production in the first half of the month to reserve inventory. In the second half of the month, after the inventory replenishment is completed, some enterprises may start the "Spring Festival" holiday around the tenth day of the twelfth lunar month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [3] Heavy - truck Sales - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales in the heavy - truck market this year [4] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 970 yuan/ton (+ 5), the NR basis was 500.00 yuan/ton (- 22.00). The price of whole - latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,875 US dollars/ton (+ 0). The spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,200 yuan/ton (- 100) [6][7] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.15 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [8] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.69% (- 1.92%), and that of semi - steel tires was 70.36% (+ 0.35%) [9] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 524,846 tons (+ 9,619), the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+ 29,327), the RU futures inventory was 93,930 tons (+ 6,770), and the NR futures inventory was 57,960 tons (- 1,008) [9] Cis - polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 165 yuan/ton (+ 35), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,042 yuan/ton (- 127) [10] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 76.77% (+ 0.51%) [11] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 5,690 tons (- 720), and the enterprise inventory was 28,850 tons (+ 1,250) [12]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-31 沙特1月CP价格上调，提振市场情绪 市场分析 1、\t12月30日地区价格：山东市场，4200-4340；东北市场，4100-4300；华北市场，4070-4300；华东市场，4200-4400； 沿江市场，4520-4710；西北市场，4100-4250；华南市场，4470-4530。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4615元/吨，跌32元/吨，丁烷4537元/吨，跌33元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷579美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4560元/吨，跌33元/吨，丁烷4483元/吨，跌33元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 沙特阿美公司1月CP公布：丙烷为525美元/吨，较12月上涨30美元/吨；丁烷为520美元/吨，较12月上涨35美元/吨。 由于国际市场收紧，沙特1月CP价格高于预期，叠加贴水到岸成本近期明显抬升，进口套利窗口关闭，从 ...