Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,200 yuan/ton and closed at 63,660 yuan/ton, the same as the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 213,304 lots, and the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 591,177 lots, a decrease of 1,661 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 147,150 lots to 283,996, and the overall speculation degree was 0.48. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots from the previous day [1] - The lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile pattern of "opening low - surging - falling back - recovering" and closed flat [1] Group 2: Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 61,700 - 63,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,450 - 61,450 yuan/ton, also up 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward [2] - Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. However, the output of lithium carbonate remained high, the market supply surplus pattern continued, and the industry inventory pressure still existed [2] Group 3: Strategy - Overall, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved to some extent, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out after the July warehouse receipt cancellation, and there is some delivery game in the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term wait - and - see and sell - hedging on rallies are recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental - driven logic, and the volatility of the fuel oil market has decreased significantly. Both high - sulfur (FU) and low - sulfur (LU) fuel oil are in a narrow - range oscillation state [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from power generation terminals may decline year - on - year due to OPEC's production increase. However, after the market structure adjustment, it will gain new support [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term supply pressure is limited, but in the medium term, the market share will be gradually replaced by the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry. The market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3]. - The current market driving force of low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil, and the structural contradiction still exists. The high - low sulfur price difference does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,987 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.47% at 3,619 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle - East situation, the oil premium caused by geopolitical conflicts has rapidly declined, driving down the energy sector. The market is now fundamentally driven, and the volatility has decreased [1]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - The spread structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining, indicating sufficient supply and lack of positive drivers [2]. - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating from 414,000 barrels per day from May to July. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation terminals may decline year - on - year [2]. - The crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil may need further adjustment to attract incremental demand. The increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial to the recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil import demand [2]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In the short term, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is relatively strong. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is low, and domestic production is at a low level. The significant increase in bunker sales in May in Singapore, Zhoushan, and Shanghai supports the market [3]. - In the medium term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil. After the end of the domestic refinery maintenance season, domestic production is expected to increase [3]. Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [4]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [4]. - Cross - period: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on July 7, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On July 7, 2025, the trading volume was 3373.53 billion yuan, a - 46.10% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 10024.21 billion yuan, a - 8.48% change; the trading - holding ratio was 33.50% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 2724.60 billion yuan, a + 1.29% change; the holding amount was 9287.41 billion yuan, a + 0.15% change; the trading - holding ratio was 29.11% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume was 3181.28 billion yuan, a - 8.85% change; the holding amount was 5009.12 billion yuan, a - 1.27% change; the trading - holding ratio was 81.65% for the basic metal part. For the precious metal part, the trading volume was 2959.60 billion yuan, a - 13.83% change; the holding amount was 4292.19 billion yuan, a - 2.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 72.61% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 4071.88 billion yuan, a - 14.68% change; the holding amount was 4358.58 billion yuan, a + 0.56% change; the trading - holding ratio was 70.56% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 2756.76 billion yuan, a + 3.49% change; the holding amount was 5595.71 billion yuan, a + 0.02% change; the trading - holding ratio was 47.02% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - The trading volume was 1865.91 billion yuan, a - 26.82% change; the holding amount was 3625.54 billion yuan, a - 0.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 51.66% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. With the increase in soybean arrivals and the expectation of continued arrivals in the future, coupled with the strong expectation of a bumper North American soybean harvest, if the China-US negotiation goes smoothly and more US soybeans are purchased, there will be greater pressure later [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,466.00 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan or -0.07% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,894.00 yuan/ton, a change of -50.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,548.00 yuan/ton, a change of -59.00 yuan or -0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was P09 + 44.00, a change of +26.00 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -70.00 yuan/ton or -0.86%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 136.00, a change of -20.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.62%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, a change of -1.00 yuan [1] - **Inventory Data**: As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons or 0.13% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 65,000 tons or 13.73% compared to 473,100 tons last year. As of July 7, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 636,369 tons, an increase of 26,440 tons compared to 609,929 tons on June 30 [2] - **Market News**: The agriculture minister of Telangana in India called on the central government to modify its palm oil import policy, requesting to raise the palm oil import tariff to 44% and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton for palm oil. Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in the Rosario port area, which will be Argentina's first export of soybean meal to China [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC's supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly, and its trend will continue to be weak. Caustic soda's upward space may be limited, and its later performance is affected by the price trend of liquid chlorine [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,892 yuan/ton (-14), the East China basis is -112 yuan/ton (+4), and the South China basis is -62 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,875 yuan/ton (-5), the calcium carbide profit is 125 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC's calcium carbide method is -552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC's ethylene method is -695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is -9.0 US dollars/ton (-1.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the operation rate of PVC's calcium carbide method is 80.73% (+0.30%), the operation rate of PVC's ethylene method is 65.46% (-1.92%), and the overall operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,408 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of Shandong's 32% liquid caustic soda is 61 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: Shandong's 32% liquid caustic soda is quoted at 790 yuan/ton (+20), and Shandong's 50% liquid caustic soda is quoted at 1,270 yuan/ton (+20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of Shandong's caustic soda is 1,478 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor - alkali (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 374.5 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) is 139.53 yuan/ton (+59.50), and the comprehensive profit of Northwest's chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) is 1,294.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: In July, upstream devices are under centralized maintenance, but the overall operation rate is expected to decline slightly due to chlor - alkali profit support. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains [3] - Demand side: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the operation rate of downstream products is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the export orders are decreasing. Uncertain anti - dumping policies may affect exports [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is expected to be weak, and the cost support for PVC's calcium carbide method is weak. The cancellation of the US export restriction on ethane to China may reduce the cost of PVC's ethylene method later [3] Caustic Soda - The sharp decline in Shandong's liquid chlorine price increases the marginal cost of caustic soda, suppressing the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali. The weak demand and increasing supply of liquid chlorine may lead to further price drops and potential passive production cuts of caustic soda [3] - A Shandong alumina factory has raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream low - price restocking supports a slight rebound in the near - term spot price, but the overall demand improvement is limited [3] - Supply side: The operation rate of caustic soda is decreasing due to device maintenance, but new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of the main downstream alumina is rising steadily, while the non - aluminum downstream demand is still weak [3] Strategy - PVC: After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to the fundamentals. It is expected to continue weak and volatile in the short term. With the inventory expected to accumulate, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: There is still room for the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali to be compressed, the inventory reduction is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - OPEC+ has decided to increase the daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to increase by about 550,000 barrels in September. However, the increase in OPEC's production quota does not equal the increase in actual production, and the actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia intends to control oil prices, the actual production increase will be slow. Although OPEC is further lifting production restrictions, the oil price showed a trend of first falling and then rising instead of a sharp decline [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 93 cents to $67.93 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.28 to $69.58 per barrel, a 1.87% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 2.13% at 512 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August. The monthly production increase approved in May, June, and July was 411,000 barrels per day, and 138,000 barrels per day in April. Since April, the production released by OPEC+ will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the previously voluntarily cut 2.2 million barrels per day remains unrecovered. It is reported that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [1] - Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva of financial institution Phillip Nova pointed out that the continuous uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy will continue to put pressure on oil prices. The current oil price has declined under pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production in August more than expected. The only factor supporting the oil price is the weakening of the US dollar [1] - Ukraine used long - range drones to attack a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The refinery is one of the major oil - processing companies in southern Russia [1] - The first round of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha ended without an agreement. The Israeli negotiation team did not have sufficient authorization to reach an agreement with Hamas [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said it is "highly likely" to list a new oil pipeline to the west coast of Canada as a national construction project. A few weeks ago, the Canadian Parliament passed Bill C - 5, which simplifies the approval process for national important development projects [1] Investment Logic - Although OPEC decides to further lift the production limit by 550,000 barrels per day starting from August and will completely lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production limit before October, the oil price did not drop significantly. The actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia, and if it wants to control the oil price, the actual production increase will be slow [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events; upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting investors to pay attention to the outcome of tariff policy negotiations [4]. 2. Core Views - The market is in a volatile state, with the crude oil supply-demand outlook being unfavorable, which exerts pressure on oil prices. However, geopolitical tensions provide some support. The gasoline cracking spread has retreated, and the demand for gasoline blending is not promising. The export of Korean aromatic blending materials to the US has declined, and the short - process PX plants are restarting due to profit recovery [1]. - PX supply and demand remain tight due to recent plant maintenance, and the PXN spread is widening. The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is slightly decreasing, and the polyester load is expected to decline in July [1][2]. - The short - fiber (PF) fundamentals are acceptable, but downstream demand is weakening. The bottle - chip (PR) processing fee is expected to recover to some extent, but the upside is limited [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][32]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [45][47][57]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, and inventory days, as well as polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, processing fee, and inventory days [68][78][82]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [85][93][96].

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-08 港口基差持续疲软 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润690元/吨（-25）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1985元/吨（-25），内蒙北线基差193元/吨（-18），内蒙南线2020元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2295元/吨（-35），鲁 南基差103元/吨（-28）；河南2175元/吨（-30），河南基差-17元/吨（-23）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差53元/吨 （+7）。隆众内地工厂库存352280吨（+10730），西北工厂库存223500吨（+18000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233250 吨（-7450），西北工厂待发订单110400吨（-9100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2425元/吨（-40），太仓基差33元/吨（-33），CFR中国282美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-9元/吨 （+15），常州甲醇2420元/吨；广东甲醇2435元/吨（-25），广东基差43元/吨（-18）。隆众港口总库存673660吨（+3160）， 江苏港口库存333000吨（-23500），浙江港口库存17 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-08 需求缺乏亮点，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 1、7月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3566元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌22元/吨，跌幅 0.61%；持仓217676手，环比下跌2381手，成交127222手，环比下降3466手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3640—4070元/吨；华南，3610—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3850元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及华南市场沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东地区沥青现货价格涨幅较为明显，其余地区沥青现货 价格大体企稳，盘面则维持区间震荡。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位，市场矛 盾有限。尽管月初个别市场挺价心态偏强，但整体需求表现缺乏亮点，下游多以按需采购为主，市场观望情绪浓 厚。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-08 EG港口库存回升 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4279元/吨（较前一交易日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.05%），EG华东市场现货价 4347元/吨（较前一交易日变动-33元/吨，幅度-0.75%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）72元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为35元/吨（环比+0 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为58.0万吨（环比+3.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为54.2万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.6万吨，周度港口库存去库； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，中性，后期进口回归下港口库存仍有回升压力。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场 内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。需 求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂近期检修计划集中， ...