油脂日报 | 2025-11-13 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8744.00元/吨，环比变化-26元，幅度-0.30%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8288.00 元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.61%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9840.00元/吨，环比变化+65.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8680.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差P01+-64.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8450.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y01+162.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10190.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差 OI01+350.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，乌克兰2026/27年度油菜籽产量预计为340万吨，预估区间320-360万吨，与上次 预估持平。随着播种季节结束，乌克兰油菜籽产量预估稳定在340万吨。不包括克里米亚和被占领州(顿涅茨克、扎 波罗热、卢甘斯克和赫尔松)的乌克兰 ...

Report Core View - The prices of various black building materials are mainly in a state of volatile operation, and different varieties face different supply - demand situations and influencing factors [1][3][5][7] Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,255 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 91,600 tons. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased month - on - month, and demand rebounded slightly. However, there is a possibility of weakening demand in the off - season. The output of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China this week, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The contradiction of strip steel lies in its high inventory and production, and steel prices are suppressed due to export profit losses, and production cuts are needed to resolve the fundamental contradictions [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port increased slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 988,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35%. This week, the shipment of iron ore continued to decline, and the supply of iron ore was in a loose state. With steel mills' loss - induced production cuts, the demand for iron ore was under pressure. The current relative valuation of the Platts index of iron ore is relatively high, and the ore price is under downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trend direction in the short term supported by downstream restocking demand [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. In terms of coke, there were more coking maintenance operations, and supply decreased due to environmental protection factors in some areas. In terms of coking coal, market sentiment cooled slightly, and the auction non - success rate of coking coal increased. For imported Mongolian coal, the transaction center of Mongolian coal moved down, and the partial transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal dropped to about 1,120 - 1,130 yuan/ton. The seasonal off - season characteristics of the terminal demand for steel are obvious, and there is an expectation of a further decline in hot metal production, and terminal demand is suppressed. Coupled with the recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume and relatively high imports, the supply contraction logic is weakened to a certain extent [5] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In terms of origin, the prices of main producing areas fluctuated. Currently, the procurement of metallurgical, chemical, and large - scale station customers is stable, and the prices of some coal mines are temporarily stable. However, as the wait - and - see sentiment increases, the procurement rhythm of traders slows down, the number of coal - pulling trucks in some coal mines decreases, and the price slightly回调. Currently, the inventory of coal mines is not high, and the port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, the port shipments increased, downstream buyers were waiting and watching, and the trading activity was low. Traders expect the winter supply - demand situation to be tight, and the quotes remain firm, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, and the game between buyers and sellers intensifies. In terms of imports, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable and slightly strong, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, terminal customers centrally purchase imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and the price of imported coal rises accordingly, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage [7] Strategy - None [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on rhythm, with the overall valuation support rising. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term agreement negotiations. The 12 - month contract trading rhythm involves alternating between trading price increase expectations and actual implementation of price increase letters. The initial estimated valuation range for the 12 - month contract is between 1700 - 1850 points, and the valuation bottom is rising. [5] - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. Attention should be paid to how the exchange defines the delivery and settlement price of the February contract. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract. [6] - The strategy is that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is no arbitrage strategy currently. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have various price quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has different prices in the 47th and 48th weeks, and HPL has different quotes for different shipping periods in November and December. Maersk has issued a price increase letter for December. [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The US military is researching the establishment of a temporary base for 10,000 people near the Gaza Strip to support a stable force for the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas. This is an early planning step and does not involve US troops. [3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and in December, it is 338,800 TEU. There are 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 3 TBNs in December. [4] 2. Futures Prices - As of November 11, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 73,528.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 70,447.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided. [7] 3. Spot Prices - On November 7, 2025, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes are 1323 US dollars/TEU, 2212 US dollars/FEU, and 2848 US dollars/FEU respectively. On November 10, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1504.80 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 1329.71 points. [7] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with capacities of 1.072 million TEU and 253,800 TEU respectively. [7] 5. Supply Chain - No specific summarized content in this part other than the figures mentioned in the document. 6. Demand and European Economy - No specific summarized content in this part other than the figures mentioned in the document.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), providing data on multiple types of stock index options such as Shanghai 50 ETF options, CSI 300 ETF options, etc. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai 50 ETF options was 741,600 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 900,600 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,301,700 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 79,900 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,701,600 contracts; Shanghai 50 stock index options was 34,900 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 109,100 contracts; and CSI 1000 options total trading volume was 229,500 contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various stock index ETF options on the same day, for example, the total trading volume of Shanghai 50 ETF options was 747,500 contracts [21]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai 50 ETF options was reported at 0.75, with a month - on - month change of +0.12; the position PCR was 0.93, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05. Similar data is provided for other types of options, such as CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), where the turnover PCR was 0.88, with a month - on - month change of +0.13, and the position PCR was 1.08, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03 [2]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai 50 ETF options was reported at 17.51%, with a month - on - month change of +0.40%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 19.05%, with a month - on - month change of +0.54%. Similar data is provided for other types of options, like the VIX of CSI 1000 stock index options was 24.22%, with a month - on - month change of +0.75% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on November 11, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors in the market, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate, with specific values and comparison data with the previous trading day, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 636.209 billion yuan, a change of - 2.76% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1313.794 billion yuan, a change of - 2.08% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 48.16%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount changes, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the stock index plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][9][12] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 306.618 billion yuan, a change of - 10.04% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 877.984 billion yuan, a change of - 1.16% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 33.87%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount changes, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the treasury bond plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][21][24] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the base metal plate was 361.394 billion yuan, a change of - 14.51% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.448 billion yuan, a change of + 0.71% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 72.67%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 676.209 billion yuan, a change of - 12.19% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 466.083 billion yuan, a change of + 4.06% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 169.06%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the metal plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][30][33] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 364.619 billion yuan, a change of - 11.38% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 467.431 billion yuan, a change of + 1.11% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 68.09%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][37][40] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 294.841 billion yuan, a change of + 5.37% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 588.412 billion yuan, a change of + 1.26% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 46.89%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][44][52] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 235.001 billion yuan, a change of - 9.48% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 382.632 billion yuan, a change of + 0.73% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 54.93%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the black building materials plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [2][55][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The supply side has a slight reduction in supply due to new device maintenance, but new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply. The demand side has a decline in downstream开工 and general purchasing sentiment. The export side exchanges volume for price, and export orders are weakening. The inventory is high, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to relevant policies in the future [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side has an increase in开工 due to less device maintenance, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity. The demand side has stable orders from Shandong alumina, but the overall demand may weaken in the off - season. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the procurement demand of new alumina plants [3]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,572 yuan/ton (-42), the East China basis is -42 yuan/ton (+32), and the South China basis is 18 yuan/ton (+22) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide method offers 4,530 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide method offers 4,590 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -100 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -769 yuan/ton (-6), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 8.3 dollars/ton (+3.5) [1]. - **Inventory and Capacity Utilization**: The in - plant PVC inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1), the PVC calcium carbide method capacity utilization is 80.17% (+3.70%), the PVC ethylene method capacity utilization is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC capacity utilization is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,357 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 112 yuan/ton (-39) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,478 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+8.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -7.47 yuan/ton (-51.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 811.83 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Capacity Utilization**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda capacity utilization is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The alumina capacity utilization is 85.25% (-0.61%), the dyeing and printing capacity utilization in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber capacity utilization is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The supply side has a slight reduction in supply due to new device maintenance, but new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - The demand side has a decline in downstream开工, and the overall purchasing sentiment is general. The export side exchanges volume for price, and export orders are weakening. The inventory is high, and the futures price is under pressure [3]. Caustic Soda - The supply side has an increase in开工 due to less device maintenance, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity [3]. - The demand side has stable orders from Shandong alumina, but the overall demand may weaken in the off - season. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the procurement demand of new alumina plants [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Range - bound and volatile, choose the right time for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Range - bound and volatile [5]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on SH12 and short on SH01 when the price difference is low [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - The domestic LPG spot market generally continued to rise, and the market atmosphere improved marginally. However, the overall supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with a global oversupply of LPG. The PG futures price had short - term support but limited upside potential [1] Market Analysis - On November 11, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4420; Northeast market, 3960 - 4050; North China market, 4200 - 4420; East China market, 4250 - 4400; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4810; Northwest market, 4140 - 4200; South China market, 4400 - 4500 [1] - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were stable at 543 dollars/ton and 542 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton and 4228 yuan/ton in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were stable at 538 dollars/ton and 537 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton and 4189 yuan/ton in RMB [1] - The overseas market prices remained relatively stable. The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in Shandong increased, and the price of post - ether C4 remained stable after a sharp increase. The downstream chemical demand was acceptable, while the combustion demand was poor. The downstream's ability to accept high - priced post - ether C4 decreased, which restricted the market's rebound space [1] - The supply tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance and a decline in arrivals, but the overall supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with a global oversupply of LPG [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-12 煤价回落明显，成本端受拖累 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6760元/吨（-42），PP主力合约收盘价为6429元/吨（-51），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为40元/吨（+92），LL 华东基差为90元/吨（+42）， PP华东基差为71元/吨（+51）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（+1.7%），PP开工率为77.8%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为183.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-406.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产 利润为-107.7元/吨（-16.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-75.0元/吨（-67.4），PP进口利润为-168.0元/吨（+131.1），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-0.3）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.8%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.5%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season shows weak performance. Pure benzene port inventory slightly declined, but its basis and processing fee continued to be weak. The domestic production start - up rate of pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream demand remains weak. Benzene styrene ports continued to reduce inventory slightly, with short - term low start - up but a resumption of work expected at the end of November. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, as the start - up of EPS has dropped rapidly, and the start - up of ABS and PS remains low. It is recommended to cautiously short - sell and hedge pure benzene and benzene styrene at high prices, and conduct reverse arbitrage for BZ2603 - BZ2605 at high prices [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 94 yuan/ton (+43), the pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), and the EB main contract basis is 64 yuan/ton (+74 yuan/ton) [1] II. Pure Benzene and Benzene Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 84 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 66 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 102.5 dollars/ton (+5.0 dollars/ton). Benzene styrene non - integrated production profit is - 434 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1] III. Pure Benzene and Benzene Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 11.30 tons (- 0.80 tons), and the start - up rate is not clearly stated but shows a bottom - up trend. Benzene styrene East China port inventory is 174,800 tons (- 4,500 tons), commercial inventory is 101,800 tons (- 8,000 tons), and the start - up rate is 66.9% (+0.2%) [1] IV. Benzene Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 318 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), start - up rate is 53.95% (- 8.30%); PS production profit is 48 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), start - up rate is 53.50% (+1.50%); ABS production profit is - 280 yuan/ton (- 44 yuan/ton), start - up rate is 71.60% (- 0.50%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1,575 yuan/ton (+100), start - up rate is 86.05% (+0.00%); phenol - ketone production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (- 25), start - up rate is 75.50% (- 2.50%); aniline production profit is 559 yuan/ton (- 539), start - up rate is 77.74% (- 0.83%); adipic acid production profit is - 1,159 yuan/ton (- 3), start - up rate is 65.60% (+7.60%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Core Viewpoints - The overseas aluminum market has a structural shortage. The US aluminum spot premium has reached a new high, indicating that overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and there is still strength and resilience in overseas consumption. The overall domestic supply and demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, but the absolute value of social inventory is still low, and it is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is positive, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio, with limited downward potential. If the social inventory is smoothly depleted, the upward space for aluminum prices is expected to open [6]. - For alumina, the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of bauxite shipments, along with the release of inventory, increase the supply pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the spot price is supported by purchases, there are currently no bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the price is undervalued, but there are potential disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 130 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, with a change of 120 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 150 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,725 yuan/ton, closed at 21,665 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton. The highest price was 21,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 185,011 lots, and the open interest was 382,366 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 11, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, with a change of 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,142 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,225 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,795 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,960 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,831 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11% change). The highest price was 2,838 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,810 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 221,905 lots, and the open interest was 405,788 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 11, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical scrap aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 59,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 142 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The US aluminum spot premium has reached a new high, and the structural problems caused by tariffs and trade wars are intensifying. The overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and there is still strength and resilience in overseas consumption. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The reduction in production at an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant is expected to last for 11 - 12 months. The domestic social inventory has not shown a trend of depletion, and the spot premium has not recovered, but the absolute value of social inventory is low, and it is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is positive, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio, with limited downward potential. Attention should be paid to the depletion rhythm of social inventory [6]. Alumina - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the supply pressure is increasing. The decline in ore prices has not improved the smelting losses of alumina. There has been no large - scale reduction in production on the supply side, and the expected new production capacity still exists. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the spot price is supported by purchases, there are currently no bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the price is undervalued, but there are potential disturbances in overseas mines [8].