Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts in Iran driving oil prices, which in turn influence the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Once the geopolitical tensions ease, the market will return to fundamentals. The weak demand for CPL and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene, combined with the pressure of South Korean pure benzene exports to China and high port inventories, keep the processing fees of pure benzene low, dragging down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the domestic and overseas maintenance peak, the average operation of downstream PS and ABS, and the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of terminal production scheduling, styrene is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are expected to be further compressed. Therefore, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2][9][151]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **2025 Pure Benzene and Downstream Production Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there are plans to add 210 million tons/year of pure benzene production capacity, with 97 million tons/year already realized and 113 million tons/year to be realized in the second half of the year. The production capacity expansion rate is 2.8% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4. Attention should be paid to the progress of the 2 reforming and cracking of Yulong Petrochemical's Phase I project. For styrene, the production capacity expansion pressure increases in the second half of the year, with only 500,000 tons of Yulong put into production at the beginning of the year, and the commissioning of Zhongtai Chemical postponed [7][22][23]. - **Pure Benzene Supply**: In the first half of 2025, pure benzene maintenance was concentrated, but port inventory pressure increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene production from January to May was 2.8%, mainly due to concentrated refinery maintenance from April to May. After June, domestic production capacity utilization rebounded rapidly. The port inventory pressure was due to a 62.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in imports from January to May and the weak downstream operation, especially the decline in CPL and aniline operations. The negative basis structure of pure benzene deepened to around - 80 yuan/ton in July, and the processing fees were at a historical low [36][38]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was less resilient than expected. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene industrial demand from January to May was 11%, with the growth rate of styrene production at 15% and the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand at 9% (21% in the previous year). CPL and aniline operations declined, while phenol operation was fair but later entered a loss state again, and adipic acid was in an over - supply and loss - reduction cycle [72]. - **Styrene Fundamentals**: In 2025, styrene production profits recovered in the first half of the year, and the operation rate increased. However, with the increase in domestic and overseas supply, production profits are expected to decline. In the first half of the year, overseas maintenance was concentrated, driving exports and reducing port inventories. In the second half of the year, as overseas operations resumed, ports will return to the inventory accumulation cycle. The styrene port inventory reached a historical low in May, and the basis fluctuated greatly. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand from the five major downstream industries of styrene from January to May was 11.7%. The production growth rates of PS and ABS were high but mainly converted into finished - product inventory pressure. The production capacity expansion of the three major hard plastics in 2025 was significant, but the actual demand increase may be less than expected [78][90][118]. 2. Market Analysis - In June, geopolitical conflicts in Iran drove oil prices, which in turn influenced the prices of pure benzene and styrene. After the conflicts eased, the market returned to fundamentals. The weak downstream demand for pure benzene and the high port inventory pressure dragged down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the maintenance peak and the decline in terminal production scheduling, it is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are under pressure [9]. 3. Strategy - Cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies. Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [10][151].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].

期货研究报告 | 化工组 化工半年报 谨慎逢低做多套保。伊朗地缘冲突放缓，伊朗装置复产，炒作暂过 7 月到港仍集中，现实偏进入累库周期。但海外气价偏高，四季度仍有 伊朗冬检提前或加剧的预期，且四季度的下游投产集中，预期下半年走势先走弱再走强。跨期方面，09 合约偏向现实累库，01 合约偏向 交易伊朗冬检，9-1 价差偏向逢高做反套，1-5 价差偏向于逢低做正套。 伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现 化工板块研究 Chemical Research 本期分析研究员 梁宗泰 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 吴硕琮 从业资格号： F03119179 杨露露 从业资格号： F03128371 2025 年 07 月 06 日 期货研究报告 | 甲醇半年报 2025-07-06 伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现 市场要闻与重要数据 2025 年名义新增产能暂仅放在 335 万吨/年，名义产能增速在 4.6%，已基 本兑现，分别是 2024 年底投产的马油 3#170 万吨/年，投产后停车时间较多， 7 月计划 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The asphalt market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory and a lower-than-seasonal inventory accumulation rate in the first half of the year. Supply pressure and market contradictions are limited, providing support for spot prices but lacking upward momentum. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, there are no significant expected changes in the supply and demand of asphalt. The seasonal recovery of terminal demand and the marginal improvement of refinery tax pressure are insufficient to form a new trend. With weak fundamental drivers in the asphalt market, the futures price will be more affected by crude oil price fluctuations. - Based on the analysis of the oil market fundamentals, if there are no major geopolitical or macro - events, the asphalt price center may show a short - term oscillation and a medium - term slow downward trend. Notably, the downward elasticity of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil, and the crack spread may be continuously supported in the future. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillatory, with short - term support and a medium - term potential to follow the downward shift of the oil price center. There are no specific strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options trading [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Crude Oil: Current Fundamentals are Fair but Expectations are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in the Fourth Quarter - In the first half of this year, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly without a sustained trend, mainly due to increased geopolitical and macro - level disturbances and significantly higher market volatility. - At the beginning of the year, due to increased US sanctions on Russia, the market worried about a decline in Russian oil supply, and crude oil prices rose rapidly, with Brent once breaking through the $80/barrel mark. However, subsequent data verified that Russian exports remained resilient, and the refinery maintenance season led to a decline in raw material procurement demand, causing oil prices to gradually fall from the high point in late January. - After Trump took office as the new US president, the market started to trade the impact of his policies, including expectations of easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, tariff increases, pushing OPEC to increase production, canceling new energy support policies, accelerating LNG project export approvals, and exerting extreme pressure on Iran. These policies had both positive and negative impacts on the oil market, but the negative effects were more prominent. - In April, Trump officially announced his reciprocal tariff policy, which exceeded market expectations in terms of scope and magnitude and led to counter - measures from trading partners, including China. If fully implemented, it would significantly impact global economic trade and oil consumption. Coupled with OPEC's decision to gradually increase production quotas, oil prices accelerated their decline, with Brent once falling below the $60/barrel mark. - Subsequently, there were signs of marginal improvement in the tariff conflict. The US postponed tariffs for most trading partners until July 9, and on May 12, China and the US reached an important consensus and issued a joint statement, reducing the tariff increase from 125% to 10% (with a 3 - month suspension for another 24%), leading to a rebound in oil prices. - In June, the crude oil market was disturbed by geopolitical conflicts, and volatility increased significantly. The Israel - Iran conflict led to concerns about oil supply disruptions, causing a sharp short - term increase in international oil prices, with Brent approaching the $80/barrel mark. After the cease - fire was announced, oil prices quickly fell back [12][13][14]. 3.2 In the First Half of 2025, the Asphalt Market Maintained a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand, and the Crack Spread Rose Significantly - In the first half of 2025, the domestic asphalt market generally maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand with relatively few market contradictions. Low refinery operating rates and production, combined with low inventory levels, provided strong support for the spot market. However, weak terminal demand restricted the upward movement of the market. - From January to June, the main contract of BU fluctuated in the range of 3200 - 3900 yuan/ton, with a higher price center compared to last year. Geopolitical and macro - factors increased crude oil price volatility, which in turn affected asphalt futures prices. - In terms of the crack spread, asphalt was more resilient than crude oil. As the oil price center declined, the crack spread of BU to Brent rose from - 348 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to - 4 yuan/ton at the end of June, once entering positive territory [23]. 3.3 In the Second Half of 2025, There are No Significant Variables in the Asphalt Market, and Contradictions are Relatively Minor - The terminal demand for asphalt still lacks growth drivers. In the first five months of this year, the total actual demand for domestic asphalt was 1197000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Road asphalt consumption was 871000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Other downstream sectors had minor changes. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, road asphalt demand still lacks clear growth expectations. The lagging impact of suspended infrastructure projects last year and the focus on "new infrastructure" in fiscal policies limit the growth space and momentum of domestic asphalt demand. However, there is seasonal improvement potential in the third quarter after the end of the rainy season in the South [27]. 3.4 The Consumption Tax Deduction Ratio of Some Local Refineries has been Increased, but the Supply Growth of Asphalt Refineries is Still Restricted - Since the beginning of this year, the theoretical production profit of asphalt refineries has been in the negative range due to weak terminal demand, tight overseas heavy crude oil supply, and increased costs of sanctioned oil. After the consumption tax deduction ratio was reduced from full to 50% - 70%, the cost of using fuel oil as a processing raw material for refineries without crude oil quotas and limited device adjustment capabilities increased significantly. - The operating rate of the asphalt industry has been suppressed at a low level. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic asphalt device operating rate has been around 30%, similar to last year's level. - In the second half of the year, there is no strong motivation for a large - scale release of asphalt refinery supply, but marginal changes are worth noting. Some refineries have increased production due to a 25% increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio, but this only applies to refineries with crude oil quotas. - In the long - term, the over - capacity of asphalt is the core factor suppressing production profits. As of now, the national asphalt production capacity is expected to reach 79.21 million tons/year, far exceeding the consumption level of over 30 million tons. The government has proposed to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and the asphalt supply will continue to be restricted [40][41][43]. 3.5 The US Revoked Venezuelan Oil Licenses, and the Discount of Diluted Asphalt is Running at a High Level - Trump revoked the oil licenses of companies such as Chevron in Venezuela. If future negotiations do not progress and US policies do not change, Venezuelan oil production may decline significantly in the medium - term, but it may be diverted from the US to Asia in the short - term. - As OPEC gradually relaxes production cuts, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries may increase the supply of medium - heavy crude oil, alleviating the tight supply of overseas heavy oil to some extent. - After the expansion of the Canadian TMX pipeline last year, it can transport heavy crude oil to the west coast for export, mainly to the US West Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and the Asia - Pacific market, becoming a new source of heavy crude oil supply for China and restricting the upward space of the diluted asphalt discount [52]. 3.6 The Asphalt Market has Limited Contradictions and Support at the Lower Level - The asphalt market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory and limited supply pressure and market contradictions. Spot prices are supported but lack upward momentum. - In the second half of the year, there are no significant expected changes in supply and demand. The asphalt price center may show a short - term oscillation and a medium - term slow downward trend, and the crack spread may be continuously supported [63].

徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 期货研究报告 | FICC 组 外汇半年报 展望 2025 年下半年，预计美元兑人民币将在 6.8–7.3 区间内维持双向窄幅波动。市场普遍认为人民币不存在大幅单边贬值或升值的基 础：美元指数可能继续偏弱但其下行速度放缓，人民币汇率升破 6.8 的可能性较低，而即使遭遇外部冲击也有望守住 7.3 左右的政策底 线。整体趋势上，人民币对美元将保持温和偏升的态势：在弱势美元环境下延续小幅升值，但幅度有限，年底前汇率中枢或稳步略有下 移。 外汇：美元难以转向 FICC 组研究报告 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 z 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 汪雅航 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 朱思谋 从业资格号：F03142856 FICC 组 | 外汇半年报 2025-07-06 美元难以转向 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱： xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 2025 年精炼镍产量继续增长，下限价格锚定 MHP 一体化成本，上限锚定 RKEF 高冰镍一体化成本。但镍价波动较大，容易受镍矿 政策及资金影响，预计 25 年下半年在 11 万元/吨-13 万元/吨之间运行。 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 新能源&有色金属研究 不锈钢：消费表现一般 或延续底部震荡 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号：0022466 不锈钢需求增速有所回落，主要受海外关税壁垒对不锈钢终端制品产销的压制。供应端弹性饱满，产能过剩矛盾未改，成本下移打开 不锈钢下方空间，我们预估下半年不锈钢震荡区间在 12200-13500 元/吨。 镍品种:利润决定原料流向 交仓控制价格节奏 期货研究报告 | 镍不锈钢半年报 2025-07-06 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 新能源&有色组铝产业半年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝半年度报告 2025-07-06 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 研究院 新能源&有色组 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the tin market showed characteristics of "weak supply and demand." The LME tin price first rose and then fell (from $38,000 to $32,000 per ton), and the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated between 240,000 and 280,000 yuan per ton [3][5][13] - The supply of tin ore remained tight. From January to May, the imported tin concentrate was 50,200 tons (-36.6%), the supply from Myanmar decreased by 80%, and the resumption of production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was delayed, putting pressure on processing fees [3] - The refined tin production at the smelting end was 88,900 tons (-3.6%), and the production of recycled tin dropped sharply by 17.3% due to the impact of tariffs [3] - The demand was clearly differentiated. The electronics sector (integrated circuits +6.8%) supported high - end demand, while the photovoltaic industry showed signs of over - capacity [3] - In the second half of the year, in the context of relatively weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Fluctuation in the First Half of 2025 - The tin price showed a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the year, affected by the delayed resumption of mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the tin ore supply was continuously tight, and the LME tin price once soared to $38,000 per ton. After March, with the gradual release of Indonesia's export quota, combined with the slowdown of photovoltaic installation growth and the interference of Trump's tariff policy, the tin price fell from its high to around $32,000 per ton. In China, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated widely between 240,000 and 280,000 yuan per ton, and the high spot premium reflected the tight supply pattern [5][13] 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Low Processing Fees - Since August 2024, affected by the mining ban in Wa State, the domestic tin concentrate has been in a relatively scarce state. From January to May 2025, China's imported tin concentrate reached 50,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.57%. The imported concentrate from Myanmar was only 10,900 tons, less than 20% of the same period last year [16] - Another major source of concentrate, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, had its Bisie mining area suspended from March 13 to April 15. The first batch of goods shipped to China is expected to arrive in July. From January to May, the domestic imported tin concentrate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo was 12,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.86%. If the shipment can remain stable, it will be an effective supplement to domestic ore sources [16] - The relative scarcity of the ore end has kept the ore - end processing fees at a low level. The actual processing fee in Yunnan is currently around 11,000 yuan per ton, and in other regions such as Jiangxi and Hunan, it is even lower, with some refineries dropping below 6,000 yuan per ton [18] 3.2.2 Smelting Output - From January to June 2025, the domestic refined tin output reached 88,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.60%. Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on tin solder, the output of recycled tin decreased more significantly, reaching 19,600 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. Before the supply at the ore end is improved, it is difficult for the smelting output to increase significantly [6][25] 3.2.3 Tin Ingot Import and Export - From January to May 2025, the domestic refined tin imports reached 9,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.91%, and the exports reached 9,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.5%. In the second half of this year, as the photovoltaic sector may enter a stage of slow growth, the import volume may slow down, and it is expected to remain in a net export state in the next few months [30] 3.3 Terminal Situation Overview 3.3.1 Development of the Automobile Industry - In 2025, the global automobile market is undergoing profound changes, with the transformation of electrification and intelligence continuing to deepen. In the third - quarter traditional off - season, the market popularity is expected to exceed expectations due to the concentrated launch of flagship models with L3 - level autonomous driving capabilities. Domestic new - energy brands are expanding their market share with core technology breakthroughs such as 800V high - voltage platforms and solid - state batteries. Chinese car companies' overseas layout is paying off, and intelligent driving technology is rapidly iterating [31][34] - From January to May 2025, the domestic traditional automobile production reached 7.126 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4.44%, while the new - energy vehicle production reached 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45%, and the export volume reached 789,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.1% [34] 3.3.2 Home Appliance Industry - Since 2025, the Chinese home - appliance export market has faced significant pressure, mainly due to the continuous fermentation of the Sino - US trade dispute and the periodic weakening of global restocking demand. The traditional OEM export model is transforming into a new development path of "local production + brand operation + long - term in - depth cultivation." Different home - appliance varieties may face significant differentiation in the future, and the industry as a whole is less likely to maintain high - speed growth. After the strong export, there are signs of a decline. In the second half of the year, the home - appliance sector may not perform well under the situation of no obvious recovery in the real - estate market and great uncertainty in the foreign - trade environment [39][40] 3.3.3 Electronics Sector - The electronics sector is becoming an important demand growth point. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the capital expenditures of three major Chinese technology giants (Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu) have increased significantly. Even when the PMI data is relatively poor, the high - tech manufacturing industry remains at a relatively healthy level. From January to May 2025, the domestic integrated - circuit production and export volume increased by 6.8% and 21.13% respectively, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen significantly since April [44] 3.4 Inventory Situation - At the beginning of the year, the trends of tin inventories at home and abroad were significantly different: domestic inventories continued to accumulate while overseas inventories decreased. After April, they both decreased synchronously. Overseas inventories decreased rapidly due to tight supply and are currently at a historical low. In China, high supply and high prices at the beginning of the year suppressed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. After the price decline in April, the rush to install photovoltaic panels drove restocking demand, and the increase in the proportion of long - term orders diverted inventory, promoting the inventory - reduction process. In the short term, the tight ore end supports the inventory - reduction trend, but as the supply from Wa State, Myanmar, and Indonesia recovers, the inventory may start to accumulate in the fourth quarter [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas mine production is increasing smoothly, with expected growth of 40 - 50 tons in H2 and 5 tons from domestic mines, leading to a global zinc ore surplus of over 20 tons [5]. - Smelting losses have rapidly recovered, and overall smelting profits are expanding, with expected supply growth of around 15% in H2 and 7.4% for the whole year [4][5]. - Consumption was strong in H1, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.2%. However, the consumption intensity is still difficult to match the supply growth rate [4]. - Inventory is at a historical low, with apparent consumption stronger than actual consumption. As zinc alloy inventory increases and supply pressure grows, a negative feedback loop is expected [4][6]. - The strategy is to short and wait for the accumulation of social inventory [8]. Summary Based on Directory Zinc Ore - Overseas mainstream zinc mines are increasing production normally, and the year - on - year growth is expected to accelerate. In Q1, overseas mine production was 114 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5 tons (4.5%). In H2, overseas production is expected to increase by 40 - 50 tons year - on - year [11]. - Domestic zinc mines contribute limited incremental output, with an expected annual increase of only 5 tons [11]. - From January to May, domestic zinc ore production was 139.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5 tons, but the production rate and output are rising. From January to May, imported zinc ore was 220.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.5% [12]. Refined Zinc - During the off - season, the spot premium is weakening, indicating supply pressure. From January to June, China's refined zinc production was 324 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of only 1.9%. In July, the estimated output is 59 tons, with a possible year - on - year growth rate of 20%. The expected annual output for 2025 is 665 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.4% [31]. - Smelting losses have been rapidly repaired, and the rise in by - product prices has further expanded smelting profits. The industry - weighted smelting profit can reach 1,300 yuan/ton, increasing smelting enthusiasm [44]. - Zinc ingot inventory is at a low level, but there is a possibility of invisible inventory becoming visible. As supply growth is expected to remain around 15% in H2, a trend of inventory accumulation is expected during the off - season [47]. Downstream Consumption - Exports are driving galvanized consumption. From January to May, China's galvanized strip net exports were 547.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Although there may be some consumption overdraft, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about overseas consumption [52]. - Zinc alloy integration is hiding visible inventory. While zinc consumption has shown positive growth, it is still difficult to match the supply growth rate. As consumption weakens during the off - season, a negative feedback loop is expected, and the invisible inventory of zinc alloy will turn into visible inventory [59]. Terminal Consumption - Infrastructure investment is supporting consumption. From January to May, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 10.4% year - on - year, with power grid investment increasing by 19.8% year - on - year, driving the demand for domestic galvanized towers [7][62]. - The automotive industry has consumption pre - empted. From January to May, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, but the channel inventory increased from 2.26 million to 2.59 million, indicating possible consumption pre - empted [7]. - The photovoltaic sector may see marginal improvement. From January to May, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times. Although the current consumption is at its lowest, there is a possibility of marginal repair in the later period [7]. - The home appliance sector has over - consumed. State subsidies in H1 drove home appliance and automobile consumption, but there is an issue of over - consumption [7].