化工日报 | 2025-09-17 市场交投清淡，下游刚性采购 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16040元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨；NR主力合约12715元/吨，较前一日变动+5 元/吨；BR主力合约11675元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年8月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计66.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.6万吨增加7.8%。1-8月，中国进 口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计537.3万吨，较2024年同期的451.4万吨增加19%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计105万吨，较2024年同期的92万吨增加14.4%。 单看8月数据，出口量同比增加14.8%，环比则下降8.9%。 科特迪瓦是非洲重要的天然橡胶生产国。近些年科特迪 瓦橡胶出口连年增加，因农户受稳定的收益驱使，将播种作物从可可转为橡胶。 据第一商用车网统计数据显示，2025年8月份，我国重卡市场销量8.4万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比微降1%，比上年同期的6.25万辆增长约35%。今年1-8月，我国重卡市场累计销量约70.8万辆，同比增长 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-17 市场要闻与重要数据 现货成交清淡，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2511合约2166元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.05%；玉米淀粉2511合约2443元/吨，较 前日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C11+134，较前日变动-9；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2600元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差CS11+157，较前 日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部出口检验周报显示，截至9月11日当周，美国玉米出口检验量151.17万吨，周环比增长 4.7%，同比增长165.7%。2025/26年度迄今，美国玉米出口检验量216.15万吨，同比增长105.7%，达到美国农业部 目标的2.86%。截至9月14日，美国玉米优良率67%，较上周下降1个百分点，目前玉米收割完成7%，略低于市场预 估的9%。 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3041元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2601合约2518元 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-09-17 烧碱下游厂家继续下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4960元/吨（+39）；华东基差-180元/吨（+21）;华南基差-110元/吨（+21）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+60）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格640元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-22元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-502元/吨（-81）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-672元/吨（-1）；PVC出口利润-3.7美元/吨（-11.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.0万吨（-0.6）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-0.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.29%（+2.64%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.20%（+4.61%）；PVC开工率79.39%（+3.21%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量68.9万吨（+1.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2579元/吨（+8）；山东32%液碱基差-17元/吨（-86）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（-25）；山东50% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for downstream lead-acid batteries is showing signs of a slight recovery, while the supply of raw materials remains relatively tight. In September, several smelters are scheduled for maintenance, and it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. With the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, lead prices may gradually rise, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 yuan/ton to 17,320 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On September 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.54 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,155 yuan/ton and a low of 17,005 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On September 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, a decrease of 3,950 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With the upcoming interest rate meeting, the market is shifting towards trading the possibility of unexpectedly loose monetary policy this year. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the retracement of gains after the interest rate cut catalyst materializes [8][9] Market Analysis - The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and President Trump signed the appointment document. The market may question the independence of the Federal Reserve. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed Governor Cook could continue to serve, and the Trump administration will appeal the court's decision. The US Department of Commerce announced that it has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope and will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [1] Futures Market Gold - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.48 yuan/gram and closed at 842.08 yuan/gram, a change of 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 844.18 yuan/gram and closed at 842.10 yuan/gram, a 0.29% decline from the afternoon close [2] Silver - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,020.00 yuan/kg and closed at 10,108.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 387,860 lots, and the open interest was 195,504 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10,149 yuan/kg and closed at 10,070 yuan/kg, a 0.63% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 16, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.030%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.529%, down 0.44 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes Gold - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 106 lots, and the short positions also changed by 106 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 313,989 lots, a change of 24.13% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 978,146 lots, a change of 18.81% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons, an increase of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,152.9 tons, an increase of 83.30 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking Spot-Futures Spread - On September 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -20.12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,025.41 yuan/kg [6] Gold-Silver Ratio - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 83.31, a change of 0.35% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.21, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 43,660 kg, a change of 29.26% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,792 kg, a change of 33.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,562 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 4,110 kg [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View - The attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian ports and refineries have significantly affected Russia's oil production, supply, and sales system, causing a decline in Russia's diesel exports and boosting the diesel crack in the Western region. Although Russia's upstream production faces a risk of reduction, crude oil exports will remain resilient. In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium term, a short - position allocation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light - sweet crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel, a 1.93% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery on the London market rose $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel, a 1.53% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.56% at 501 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Russian Oil Situation**: Ukraine's drone attacks have hit at least 10 Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by nearly one - fifth, and damaged major ports. The Russian oil pipeline transportation company has limited the ability of oil companies to store oil in its pipeline system and warned of potential production cuts. The Primorsk port has partially resumed operations, but full restoration time is unknown [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: US Treasury Secretary Besent said that if President Trump deems inflation a problem, he would be willing to accept interest rate hikes [1]. - **OPEC+ Meeting**: OPEC+ representatives will hold a meeting in Vienna on September 18 - 19 to discuss the procedure for updating member countries' production capacity estimates. They aim to reach an agreement on a mechanism to evaluate each member's maximum sustainable crude oil production capacity, with the goal of submitting a feasible plan to OPEC+ ministers by the end of the year. The implementation of the new production baseline has been postponed to 2027 due to internal disagreements [1]. - **UK Unemployment Data**: The number of unemployment - benefit claimants in the UK in August was 17,400, and the previous value was revised from - 6,200 to - 33,300 [1]. Investment Logic - Due to the fact that the increase in Russian crude oil exports (100,000 barrels per day) is significantly less than the reduction in refinery capacity (400,000 barrels per day), there is a risk of over - inventory in Russia, and upstream production may face cuts. However, crude oil exports will remain strong. The attacks have affected Russia's oil system, and the continuous decline in Russian diesel exports will boost the Western diesel crack [2]. Strategy - In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium term, a short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risk - **Downside Risks**: The US may relax sanctions on Russian oil, or there may be macro black - swan events [3]. - **Upside Risks**: The US may tighten sanctions on Russian oil, or large - scale supply disruptions may occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent LPG futures market has shown a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with a recent pullback in line with expectations. The spot market is relatively stable, with prices fluctuating both up and down, and the trading atmosphere is favorable. The downstream mainly purchases according to demand. The global oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for LPG is still weak. As the LPG procurement cost rebounds, PDH profit has shrunk again, and the plant operating rate has dropped to around 70%, indicating resistance in the market. Without unexpected macro or supply - disruption events, the price increase space may be limited [1]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy suggests a volatile and upward - trending market. Traders should look for opportunities to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, and existing long positions can be appropriately liquidated at high prices. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 16, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4550 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4000 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4640 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were stable at 603 US dollars/ton and 583 US dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4717 yuan/ton and 4561 yuan/ton in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were also stable at 596 US dollars/ton and 576 US dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4662 yuan/ton and 4506 yuan/ton in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and upward - trending. Look for opportunities to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, and existing long positions can be appropriately liquidated at high prices [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak leads to a seasonal decline in demand. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short - term oil price direction is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the market re - balancing stage. The near - end supply is relatively abundant, and the Singapore inventory is at a high level, but the pressure has eased. Egyptian procurement demand continues, with an expected import of 690,000 tons in September, a 260,000 - ton increase from August and basically the same as last year. The power generation consumption peak is ending, providing short - term support but expected to decline in October [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply pressure has increased due to the increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery after its RFCC unit shutdown. However, the West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low, with no serious oversupply expected. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with support at the lower valuation but large upward resistance [2]. - The short - term strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is neutral, and the medium - term strategy is downward. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Fuel Oil Futures Prices**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 2,795 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.25% at 3,395 yuan/ton [1]. - **Crude Oil Situation**: Crude oil prices are in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak causes a seasonal demand decline. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen. Geopolitical uncertainties and low inventories make the short - term oil price direction unclear [1]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in the market re - balancing stage. Near - end supply is abundant, and Singapore inventory is high but the pressure has eased. Middle - East shipments decreased significantly in September, and Egyptian procurement continues. The power generation consumption peak is ending [1]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supply pressure has increased due to increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery. West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low. There is no serious oversupply expected, and it has a mild Back structure. In the medium - term, it faces demand substitution and excess capacity issues [2]. Strategy - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - **Other Strategies**: No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route continued to decline in the first week of October, and the freight rate center continued to move down [1]. - For the October contract, it is relatively safe to be short - allocated as the driver is downward, but the key lies in the downward space, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be gradually carried out to trade the expected price increase by shipping companies for November and December [5]. - For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the recent Trump tariff risk, which, if implemented, will have a great impact on the demand of the European line and be negative for the prices of the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that the prices of various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route have different degrees of decline. For example, Maersk's prices in weeks 38 - 40 decreased, and the prices of other companies such as HPL, MSC, and ONE also changed [1]. - Geopolitically, Israel's large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip may affect the shipping market, with nearly 400,000 people having left Gaza City [2]. - The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports in October is 278,000 TEU, with 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional ships in October [3]. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated in the off - peak season, and the valuation continues to be revised down. The delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The current market price center in the second half of September has dropped to around $1500/FEU. The two additional ships announced by HPL may put pressure on the spot price in October [4]. - **December Contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be carried out to trade the expected price increase. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the possible transfer of US - line ships to the European line [5]. - **Far - month Contracts**: Trump's call for NATO to impose a 50% - 100% tariff on China may have a great impact on the European line demand and be negative for the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Other Information - As of September 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,629.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,388.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU [7]. - Strategies include a weak - oscillating main contract for the unilateral strategy and shorting the October contract for the arbitrage strategy [8].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-17 晚富士卸袋推迟，红枣销区零星到货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8269元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨，幅度-0.42%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-669，较前一日变动+35；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1331，较前一日变动+35。 近期市场资讯，西部早熟富士陆续收尾，剩余货源质量出现分化，好货剩余不多，多按货给价；采青富士陆续脱 袋等待上色。山东产区红将军好货成交不多，上色不佳问题存在，库存富士成交较前略放缓，客商拿货多以好货 及性价比很高的货源为主。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元/斤。中 秋王70#以上主流4.2-4.3元/斤，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东栖霞产区果农80#以上统货2.1-3.0元/斤，80#一 二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 风险 产区天 ...