Report Information - Report Type: Precious Metals Monthly Report - Date: September 1, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging demand and reserve diversification demand due to the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. The medium - term bull market is supported by economic growth weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms. In the short term, gold is expected to break through the $3,500/ounce mark and start a new upward trend. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise and may outperform gold. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. Section Summaries 1. 2025 January - August Precious Metals Trend Review - Gold started a new upward trend in late December 2024 due to factors such as festival consumption expectations in China and India,避险需求, and US economic stagflation risks. In early April, the release of Trump's tariff details caused gold to fall to $2,956/ounce, but then it soared to $3,500/ounce due to multiple hedging demands. After that, gold traded in the range of $3,120 - $3,500/ounce. In August, gold rebounded and reached a new closing - price high on August 29. In 2025, London gold and silver rose 29.4% and 33.5% respectively, and Shanghai gold and silver futures indices rose 26.4% and 24.4% respectively [7][10]. - In June, funds flocked to silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver reached a 15 - year high of $39.52/ounce on July 23. The correlations between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real - interest rates, crude oil, and silver have all changed [9][10]. 2. Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 US Employment Market Weakens and Inflation is Moderate - In July 2025, US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate rose, but the Sahm indicator was far below the recession threshold. Overall, the employment market deteriorated, giving the Fed a reason to restart interest - rate cuts without causing market panic about a recession. In July, the overall CPI remained at 2.7%, the core CPI rose to 3%, and the PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month [11][14][15]. - Tariff threats pushed up inflation expectations and depressed consumer confidence. In May, 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations reached their highest levels since 1982, and the consumer confidence index hit a three - year low. After June - July, inflation expectations eased, but they rebounded in August [17][18]. 2.2 The Fed Hints at Restarting Interest - Rate Cuts - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting in August was seen as opening the door for a September interest - rate cut. The market expects an 81.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut on September 17, a 43.5% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut on October 29, and 80.2% and 33.3% probabilities of 50 - basis - point and 75 - basis - point cuts this year respectively [19]. - Trump has been attacking the Fed. He has made personnel changes at the Fed, increasing his influence. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points from January to July 2026, with the federal funds rate dropping to 3 - 3.25% by July 30 [20][21][22]. 2.3 Trade Policy Developments - The high - tariff suspension period between China and the US was extended to November 9. Trump imposed new tariffs on India and threatened to impose tariffs on imported furniture, but the impact of new tariff measures on the market is small [24]. - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, including tariff adjustments, energy and chip purchases, and investment cooperation [25][26]. 2.4 US Dollar Exchange Rate and US Treasury Yields - US Treasury 10 - year yields have fluctuated. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will continue to steepen in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 4 - 5%. The US dollar index is expected to first decline and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to first rise and then fall, with a core range of 7.1 - 7.4 [27][30][31]. 2.5 Gold Supply, Demand, and Market Structure - Gold and silver ETF holdings have rebounded since 2025. As of August 27, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 962.5 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,275 tons. In the week of August 19, non - commercial institutions adjusted their positions in gold and silver futures and options, with the gold fund net - long ratio dropping to 31.3% and the silver fund net - long ratio rising to 223.4% [32][34]. 3. Precious Metals Price Outlook - In the long term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the trade and monetary system support the upward movement of the gold price center. In the medium term, economic growth weakness and interest - rate cut expectations keep the gold price strong. In the short term, gold is expected to break through $3,500/ounce and start a new upward trend [35][39].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The international trade currency system restructuring and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold, but the high price also means increased volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6] Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook Intraday Market - Fed Governor Waller supports a September interest rate cut and further cuts in the next six months, and Governor Cook sues Trump. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations push the US dollar index below 98 and London gold above $3400/oz. However, the better - than - expected Q2 GDP revision in the US and stable weekly unemployment data limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The market expects the overall PCE and core PCE in July to increase by 2.6% and 2.9% year - on - year respectively. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500/oz. The easing of international trade and the improvement of financial markets weaken the safe - haven demand for gold, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the price. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, and the bottom of the price correction has been rising since the end of June. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [6] II. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold TD, and gold and silver ETF holdings [8][10] III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Q2 GDP growth rate is 3.3% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, higher than the previous report and economists' expectations. Fed Governor Cook sues Trump for the right to remove her. Governor Waller supports an interest - rate cut next month and further cuts in the next three to six months. The ECB policymakers are divided on inflation expectations in July. The EU proposes to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products in exchange for lower US tariffs on European cars. Russian oil exports to India are expected to increase in September [18][19]

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 1, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Market Performance Market Review - On August 29, the Wind All A index opened with an upward trend, then reversed and declined, and rebounded again at the end of the session, closing up 0.37% with over 60% of stocks falling. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed up 0.74%, 0.53%, and 0.47% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed down 0.11%. The performance of index futures was generally stronger than that of the spot market, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closing up 1.03%, 0.68%, 0.43%, and 0.05% respectively [6]. Market Outlook - External markets: On August 25, Trump stated that China must ensure the supply of rare - earth magnets to the US, or face a 200% tariff, which increased market risk - aversion sentiment. - Domestic situation: The domestic economy is in a weak recovery stage. In July, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points. The overall fundamentals are still under pressure, but market expectations for future economic recovery are positive due to policy support. - Regulatory aspect: Many banks announced strict control of illegal credit funds entering the market, and Guojin Securities raised the margin ratio for margin trading of underlying securities (excluding those on the Beijing Stock Exchange) to 100% on August 26, which cooled market sentiment. - Capital flow: The balance of margin trading has continuously reached new highs, and it is only about 30 billion yuan away from the historical high. There are signs of household deposits flowing into the market, and its sustainability needs to be observed. - Overall view: The US tariff statement and increased regulatory efforts have increased the pressure for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,900. However, the market sentiment remains high, and there is still room for further capital inflow. Long positions can be held, and the trading volume and corporate semi - annual reports need to be monitored. In terms of market style, during market fluctuations, large - cap blue - chip stocks may be more favored by funds, and the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more dominant in the short term [7][8]. Industry News - On August 29, the Ministry of Finance released the economic operation of state - owned and state - holding enterprises from January to July 2025. From January to July, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 4,731.109 trillion yuan, the same as the previous year. The total profit was 2,478.64 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The tax payable was 3,469.46 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. At the end of July, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [29].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 01 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 生猪行情： 期货方面，29 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅高开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收 阴，最高 13670 元/吨，最低 13525 元/吨，收盘报 1 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 29, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is accumulating upward breakthrough momentum despite temporarily being blocked at the $3400/oz level, with the bottom of the phased correction since the end of June gradually rising. The volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] - The price of silver with strong industrial attributes has been boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market, and the London gold - silver ratio has returned to 87.5. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price, but the high price - to - earnings ratio also means significant volatility. The weak US employment market provides a necessary condition for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, but rising inflation pressure may restrict the pace. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling. [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about the loss of US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market have boosted the price of silver. The gold - silver ratio in London has returned to 87.5. The new Trump 2.0 policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500/oz. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in the range of $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, with the bottom of the correction gradually rising since the end of June. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 785.49, up 0.28%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9399, up 0.77%; Gold T + D closed at 779.97, up 0.30%; Silver T + D closed at 9330, up 0.75%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides six charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed may cut interest rates at some point, but policymakers need to see economic data before deciding whether to cut rates at the September 16 - 17 meeting. Fed Governor Cook's lawsuit against Trump's dismissal may be filed as early as Wednesday. [8] - The EU will accelerate legislation to cancel tariffs on US industrial products this week. Mexico plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in its 2026 budget proposal next month. [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Industry: Non-ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate Futures) - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market continued to revolve around upstream mining issues. Although there were uncertainties regarding ore type changes before the end of September, there was support at lower levels. With the approach of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", downstream demand had certain rigid support. The decline in futures prices narrowed in the afternoon, and the spot price followed the decline. It was expected that the downward space of lithium carbonate futures was limited under the support of spot prices, and attention should be paid to the support level of 77,000 [9]. - The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply-side pressure showed a slowdown trend. The weekly inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, and it was judged that the inventory inflection point of lithium carbonate was approaching [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The lithium carbonate futures declined. The lowest price of the main contract in the morning session was 75,740. The decline narrowed in the afternoon. It was expected that the downward space was limited under the support of spot prices, and attention should be paid to the 77,000 support level [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price followed the decline, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 1,600 to 80,000. The market transactions were active, and the point-price and trading activities increased significantly [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 108 to 19,030 tons, with the increase in lithium carbonate production from pyroxene slowing down, and the production from mica and salt lakes continuing to decline. The weekly inventory decreased by 407 to 141,136 tons [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Fulin Seiko**: In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 5.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.7%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.41%. The company accelerated its layout in the super-fast charging market, and the high-voltage and high-density lithium iron phosphate 4C ultra-fast charging products entered the high-end passenger car market. With the continuous growth of market and customer demand for high-compaction lithium iron phosphate, the overall production capacity, output, and loading volume of the company's lithium iron phosphate cathode materials would increase significantly [12]. - **Porsche**: Porsche AG announced the cancellation of the production plan of its high-performance battery subsidiary Cellforce. Due to the slowdown in electric vehicle demand and changes in the market environment in China and the United States, it would focus on battery R & D in the future [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures opened with a gap down, leading the decline in the non - ferrous sector. The main contract 2510 closed at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with increased volume and open interest. The LME zinc inventory decreased to below 60,000 tons, and the squeeze - out risk still exists due to the low - inventory pattern. The SHFE/LME ratio remains low, and the zinc ingot import window remains closed. The supply side is abundant as the refined zinc output is expected to increase to 621,500 tons in August. The downstream demand is still weak, and the开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide are expected to hover at low levels. The external market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and low inventory, showing an upward - biased trend. The internal - weak and external - strong pattern continues, and the domestic market is unlikely to decline deeply due to the influence of the external market. The SHFE zinc is oscillating between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open - interest changes of SHFE zinc contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 are provided. For example, the main contract 2510 opened at 22,210 yuan/ton, closed at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest increase of 6,801 lots to 114,628 lots [7]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The LME zinc inventory decreased to below 60,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 spread is C7.6. The SHFE/LME ratio is low, and the zinc ingot import window remains closed. The import zinc concentrate processing fee continues to rise, with the zinc concentrate index rising by 2.2 dollars/dry ton to 92 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC remains at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The refinery operating rate is at a high level, and the refined zinc output in August is expected to reach 621,500 tons. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and transportation in North China are restricted due to stricter environmental protection during the military parade. The external market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and low inventory, while the domestic market is affected by the external market and is oscillating between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [7]. 2. Industry News - **Zinc Price and Premium Information**: On August 28, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc, 1 zinc, and high - end brands in different markets (such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong) are provided, along with the premium or discount information of different brands relative to the SMM average price, futures contracts, and other market prices. For example, in the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc is 22,105 - 22,190 yuan/ton, and the high - end brand Shuangyan is traded at 22,225 - 22,300 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report mentions data charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation for bonds remains unchanged. [11] - In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has been significantly strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put great pressure on the bond market. Although the fundamental data in July showed marginal weakness, it still demonstrated short - term resilience, and it is difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term rebound of the bond market cannot form a trend. [11] - Similar to the stock - bond seesaw period from February to March this year, the bond market may need to see the alleviation of relevant negative forces to stabilize and rise. Recently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed down, and the central bank has actively protected the capital market, so the pressure on the bond market has eased, and its sensitivity to the stock market has weakened. However, it is necessary to observe the adjustment of the A - share market and be vigilant against renewed suppression. If the equity market starts a new round of upward movement, it may intensify the redemption pressure of fixed - income products and bring passive selling pressure. [12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions on the Day - The A - share market rebounded in a V - shape in the afternoon, and the bond market was suppressed again. All treasury bond futures closed lower. [8] 3.1.2 Interest Rate Spot Bonds - The yields of major term interest - rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, mostly within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.761%, down 0.25bp. [9] 3.1.3 Capital Market - The central bank increased its capital injection to support cross - month funds. There were 253 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Most short - term capital interest rates rose. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rose about 3bp to 1.54%, the medium - and long - term capital remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fell to 1.6%. [10] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption next month, and will jointly formulate the "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports" with relevant departments, and the relevant documents will be publicly issued soon. [13] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared with June. The profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, leading the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June. [13] - In 2024, China's new economic development momentum index was 136.0, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. All sub - indices increased compared with the previous year, with the network economy and innovation drive contributing significantly to the growth of the total index. [13] - In 2024, China's trade volume with other member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reached about $512.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. [14] - Shanghai issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the transformation of urban villages, prioritizing the transformation of urban villages with urgent public needs, many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers, and requiring the first - time shareholding ratio of town collective economic organizations in cooperative transformation to be no less than 10%. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on August 28, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. [6] - It also mentions various data on treasury bond futures, including the spread between main - contract tenors, the spread between main - contract varieties, the trend of main - contract prices, as well as data on the money market (such as SHIBOR term - structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged - repo weighted interest rate changes, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repo interest rate changes) and the derivatives market (such as Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves). All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [15][25][35]

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, and online quotes have been lowered. The fundamental situation remains unfavorable. However, the current main contract EC2510 has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. Attention should be paid to whether there will be marginal benefits later to help stabilize the market. The EC2510 contract can be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Current Market**: The SCFIS has dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, and online quotes have been lowered again. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's opening prices for the first and second weeks of September are $2210 and $1900 respectively, with an expanding decline. Other airlines have also cut prices to attract cargo. The fundamental situation remains unfavorable. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. Attention should be paid to marginal benefits such as more blank sailings and slower price cuts to help stabilize the market and ease the pessimistic expectations for the 12 - contract and boost the year - end price - support expectations. The 10 - contract can be shorted on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market (August 18 - 22)**: The market was basically stable, but the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. Most route freight rates declined, and the comprehensive index continued to adjust. On August 22, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1415.36 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In August, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.1, better than expected. However, due to the impact of US tariff policies, foreign orders in the eurozone's manufacturing industry declined for the second consecutive month. On August 22, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1668/TEU, down 8.4% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was basically the same as that of European routes, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. On August 22, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2225/TEU, down 2.4% from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: As of the week ending August 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021, indicating a cooling labor market. Under trade protectionism, US companies are reducing recruitment. The freight demand growth was weak, and the supply - demand fundamentals lacked support. On August 22, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU respectively, down 6.5% and 3.9% from the previous period [9][10]. - **US Furniture Tariff Investigation**: US President Trump announced a "major" tariff investigation on imported furniture, which will be completed within 50 days. New tariffs on imported furniture have pushed up the consumer price of household items by 0.7% in July. The potential furniture import tariffs will further hit the industry that has already been affected by other tariffs [10]. - **Israeli - Palestinian Situation**: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the plan for the Israeli army to capture Gaza City and demanded accelerated progress. US President Trump "fully supports" Israel's military goal of controlling Gaza City to eliminate Hamas [10]. 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From August 18 to August 25, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) decreased from 2180.17 to 1990.2, a decline of 8.7%. The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) decreased from 1106.29 to 1041.38, a decline of 5.9% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market**: Provided trading data for multiple contracts on August 28, including EC2510, EC2512, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]