研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03 | | | | | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: December 25, 2025 - Industry: Polyolefin [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the polyolefin market is increasing as the maintenance loss of devices in December has declined significantly and the previously shut - down devices are restarting. The demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The rebound of polyolefin futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The plastic 2601 contract opened at 6256 yuan/ton, closed at 6350 yuan/ton, up 1.73% with a position decrease of 11664 lots to 50532 lots. The plastic 2605 contract opened at 6310 yuan/ton, closed at 6408 yuan/ton, up 1.99% with a position decrease of 41207 lots to 540352 lots. The plastic 2609 contract opened at 6342 yuan/ton, closed at 6445 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position increase of 292 lots to 23865 lots. The PP2601 contract opened at 6062 yuan/ton, closed at 6187 yuan/ton, up 1.89% with a position decrease of 15404 lots to 61519 lots. The PP2605 contract opened at 6166 yuan/ton, closed at 6278 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position decrease of 18588 lots to 539752 lots. The PP2609 contract opened at 6203 yuan/ton, closed at 6300 yuan/ton, up 1.55% with a position increase of 5439 lots to 39130 lots [3]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The downstream load of PE has mostly declined, and although the PP start - up rate is basically stable, factories are mainly digesting inventory and have low willingness to make new purchases. The futures market has a slight increase, but the spot price remains weak, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [4]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On December 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 590,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices have partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton, in East China 6230 - 6700 yuan/ton, and in South China 6250 - 6650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily in the range of 5700 - 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply is abundant, and the overall trading improvement is not obvious [5]. - **PP Market**: The PP market has a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire are in the range of 5920 - 6060 yuan/ton, in East China 6020 - 6200 yuan/ton, and in South China 6100 - 6330 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][15]

行业 贵金属日评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美国三季度经济增速远超市场预期推高美债利率，但市场臆测联邦政府 停摆将拖累美国四季度经济增长，同时美联储主席候选人继续呼吁美联储降息， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，流动性溢价与计价货币因素继续推动贵金属板块偏强运 行；广期所铂钯行情未见停止迹象，但近期价格飙升也累积了内在调整风险，加 上圣诞节期间成交稀少价格波动性上升，建议投资者适当降低仓位。总体看在年 底消费旺季、美联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金 属板块特别是工 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract and view it as a rebound for now. The supply and demand fundamentals of forward contracts have little change, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high-frequency data in Malaysia shows that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline from December 1 - 20 widened, providing some support for the palm oil market. The market is also concerned about the development of biodiesel in Indonesia. The domestic soybean oil inventory declines seasonally, and the basis is strong, with strong support for the futures price at 7,800 - 8,000. Rapeseed oil is generally used as a short position in arbitrage, but the basis quote is firm due to continuous inventory reduction and concentrated cargo rights. The futures price rebounds due to excessive decline, but caution is needed regarding the unilateral upward height. In terms of arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 530, and from February - March was OI2605 + 490. The basis price of the first-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 730, and from February - March was OI2601 + 690. The basis price of the first-grade soybean oil in the East China market had different values at different time periods. The palm oil quotes of traders in Dongguan were stable [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract. For forward contracts, expect narrow fluctuations. In arbitrage, long palm oil and soybean oil and short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20, 2025 decreased by 7.44% month-on-month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 2.12% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.75% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% month-on-month [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [11][13][16]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.840 | 111.930 | 112.830 | 112.820 | 0.990 | 0.89 | 14073 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for polysilicon is showing a cautious and moderately strong trend. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, causing the market price to break through resistance levels and resonate with the technical aspects. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been taking measures to release rational signals and reduce positions. Also, the certainty of the improvement in the fundamental situation is not significant yet, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the entire industry chain for a re - distribution of industrial profits. The supply side may see positive effects as the expected polysilicon output in January is to be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but this requires continuous observation. The price has formed a downward trend on the minute - line chart and is in the upward adjustment stage. After breaking below the support level of 58,000 yuan, it has not resumed its upward trend, and attention should be paid to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The closing price of the PS2605 contract is 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume is 197,440 lots, and the open interest is 127,084 lots, a net decrease of 4,519 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 traders decreased by 493 lots, and the net short positions decreased by 3,038 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock is 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The market is expected to run cautiously and moderately strong. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been reducing positions. The improvement in the fundamental situation is not certain, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the industry chain. The expected reduction in polysilicon output in January is a positive factor for the supply side but needs continuous observation. Pay attention to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3.2. Market News - On December 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,960 lots, an increase of 300 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its registration, marking the official launch of the long - awaited "polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - pronged approach" model, operating under a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" [5]. - The estimated polysilicon output in December is 113,500 tons, and there may still be some production reduction plans in the future [5]. - According to the notice of Guangzhou Futures Exchange (No. 420 [2025]), starting from the trading time on December 22, 2025, for polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612, the minimum opening order quantity per transaction has been adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity per transaction remains at 1 lot [5].

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,628.8 | 1,603.2 | 1,606.0 | 1,603.6 | -22.8 | -1.40 | 281 | 1890 | -66 | ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.840 | 111.930 | 112.830 | 112.820 | 0.990 | 0.89 | 140734 | 1 ...