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Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Industry: Sugar [1] Group 2: Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Futures Quotes: SR509 closed at 5667 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 0.39%, with a position of 161,306 contracts, a decrease of 11,214 contracts; SR601 closed at 5585 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan or 0.75%, with a position of 278,027 contracts, an increase of 15,743 contracts; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.05 cents or 0.31%, with a position of 387,802 contracts, an increase of 409 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.70 cents/pound, down 0.05 cents or 0.30%, with a position of 231,986 contracts, an increase of 1,333 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures weakened on Wednesday. The fundamentals of raw sugar have been relatively calm recently. The improvement in Brazilian weather has led to an increase in sugar production, which has pressured sugar prices, but the expectation of a decline in the total volume still exists. The market has digested the strong expectation of an increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline yesterday. The spot prices in domestic producing areas also fell. Today, Zhengzhou Sugar 09 continued to decline but showed resistance. Industrial funds on the 09 contract have shifted from short to long, while speculative funds are shorting the 01 contract. Currently, the basis is large, which is unfavorable for short positions. Attention should be paid to whether speculative funds will short technically [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil's Sugar Exports: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar in July, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From April to July in the 2025/26 sugar season, Brazil exported a total of 10.76 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 7.64% [9] - Impact of Fertilizer Prices: Citigroup analysts warned that the rising fertilizer prices may affect the profitability of producers in the 2025/26 season, although the harvests of corn and sugarcane improved in July due to favorable weather conditions [9] - Guangxi's Sugar Production: In the 2024/25 sugar season, Guangxi crushed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; produced 6.465 million tons of mixed sugar, a year-on-year increase of 0.2836 million tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year-on-year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, Guangxi had sold 5.4961 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 0.3966 million tons; the sales rate was 85.01%, a year-on-year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single-month sugar sales volume was 0.3555 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2178 million tons; the industrial inventory was 0.9689 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.113 million tons [9] - Yunnan's Sugar Production: In the 2024/2025 sugar season, Yunnan crushed 18.063 million tons of sugarcane (compared with 15.4494 million tons in the previous season), produced 2.4188 million tons of sugar (compared with 2.032 million tons in the previous season), with a sugar production rate of 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and produced 28,200 tons of alcohol (compared with 28,000 tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, Yunnan had sold 1.9514 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 0.3262 million tons; the sales rate was 80.68%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The monthly sugar sales volume in July was 200,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 467,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60,600 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures Included: Spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][15][17] - Trading Positions of Top 20 Seats: Detailed data on the trading positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar are provided, including the changes in long and short positions of various futures companies [20]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon contract opened lower and encountered resistance on the upside. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,110 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80%. The trading volume was 400,810 lots, and the open interest was 136,324 lots, a net decrease of 2,072 lots. Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. The supply in August has increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. The terminal demand has been decreasing since June, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply and demand are generally in a loose pattern. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled the market sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 50,110 yuan/ton, down 2.80%, with a trading volume of 400,810 lots and an open interest of 136,324 lots, a net decrease of 2,072 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Polysilicon has a rigid lower - bound support from costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain is not smoothly transmitted to components. Supply in August is 125,000 tons, meeting 56.82GW of downstream demand. Terminal demand has been decreasing since June, with silicon wafer and cell monthly output at about 52GW. The supply - demand remains loose, and the price will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 7th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,580 lots, a net increase of 60 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. The domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]. - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, requiring local departments to standardize supervision procedures and report results by September 30th [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 2. Market Review Futures Market Quotes - **Shanghai Zinc (ZN2508)**: Opened at 22,340 yuan/ton, closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,375 yuan/ton, a low of 22,230 yuan/ton. It rose 60 yuan with a 0.27% increase, and its open interest decreased by 905 to 6,760 [7]. - **Shanghai Zinc (ZN2509)**: Opened at 22,360 yuan/ton, closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,415 yuan/ton, a low of 22,250 yuan/ton. It rose 65 yuan with a 0.29% increase, and its open interest decreased by 4,218 to 94,254. The main contract ZN2509 closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan or 0.79%, with reduced volume and open - interest [7]. - **Shanghai Zinc (ZN2510)**: Opened at 22,400 yuan/ton, closed at 22,370 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,400 yuan/ton, a low of 22,255 yuan/ton. It rose 55 yuan with a 0.25% increase, and its open interest increased by 728 to 67,178 [7]. Market Analysis - In August, the average monthly TC of domestic zinc concentrates increased by 100 yuan to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. Supported by high TC and high by - product profits, smelters are highly motivated to produce, and with the release of new zinc ingot production capacity, the overall zinc ingot supply remains strong [7]. - The "trade - in" policy for consumer goods continues, and the third batch of funds has been allocated. There is an expected increase in zinc demand from infrastructure in the second half of the year. However, demand is currently weak in the short term, and the operating rates of galvanized products and die - cast zinc alloys are at historically low levels [7]. - The core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingot supply is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to over 100,000 tons. Short - sellers have closed their positions, but as the price rebounds, the downstream's purchasing sentiment has weakened, the spot premium has declined, and the upward space for Shanghai zinc is limited, trading in the lower - middle range of the Bollinger Bands [7]. 3. Industry News Price and Premium in Different Markets - **August 6, 2025**: 0 zinc's mainstream transaction price was 22,270 - 22,405 yuan/ton, Shuangyan was traded at 22,380 - 22,505 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was traded at 22,200 - 22,335 yuan/ton. In the morning, the premium to the SMM average price was 30 - 50 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, the premium of common domestic brands to the 2509 contract was 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream 0 zinc transaction price was around 22,250 - 22,375 yuan/ton. Regular brands in Ningbo quoted at par to the 2509 contract and at a 20 - yuan premium to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,210 - 22,370 yuan/ton, Zijin at 22,250 - 22,390 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots at around 22,130 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The premium of 0 zinc to the 2509 contract was - 40 - 0 yuan/ton [8]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream 0 zinc transaction price was 22,200 - 22,275 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands quoted at a 60 - yuan discount to the 2509 contract and at a 40 - yuan discount to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8]. 4. Data Overview - The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventories, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On August 6, the iron ore futures main contract 2509 oscillated weakly. The subsequent iron ore arrival volume may fluctuate at a moderately low level until mid - August and then rise again. The downstream steel demand shows a seasonal decline, but the iron - water production remains high. The disk price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and it is expected to show a high - level consolidation trend in the short term [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On August 6, the iron ore futures main 2509 contract oscillated weakly, opening lower, rising during the session, and falling back in the afternoon, closing at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The trading volume was 208,804 lots, the open interest was 358,293 lots, a decrease of 26,208 lots, and the capital outflow was 335 million yuan. Other steel futures also had different trends [5][7] - **Spot Market**: On August 6, the main iron ore outer - market quotes fluctuated from - 0.5 to + 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port fluctuated from - 3 to 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 2 consecutive trading days [9] 3.2 Industry News - According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons or 5.6% from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 2.41 million tons or 19.5% from the beginning of the year; a decrease of 670,000 tons or 4.3% from the same ten - day period of the previous month; a decrease of 1.27 million tons or 7.9% from the same ten - day period of last year; and an increase of 290,000 tons or 2.0% from the same ten - day period of the year before last. The average daily output of crude steel was 1.982 million tons, a decrease of 7.4% from the previous ten - day period; the average daily output of pig iron was 1.856 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous ten - day period; and the average daily output of steel was 2.091 million tons, an increase of 0.5% from the previous ten - day period [12] 3.3 Market Outlook - **Macro - news**: Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", aiming to build a mature financial system to support the high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry by 2027 [10][11] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the recent shipping volume has recovered after a seasonal decline. The current weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is at a medium level. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may oscillate at a moderately low level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand shows a seasonal decline, the iron - water production has decreased slightly, but it is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel enterprises' profitability has increased, and they maintain strong production. The subsequent production - reduction process is expected to be slow, which will support the ore price [11]

Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of trade policies and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut support the gold price, while the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The gold's safe-haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's 2.0 new policy, and the London gold may rise again after wide-range consolidation between $3120 - $3500 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The safe-haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the reorganization of the international trade and monetary system will continue to support the long-term bull market of gold, and the economic growth weakness and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts caused by Trump's multiple reforms will support the medium-term bull market. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's tariff threats on drugs, semiconductors, and India, and the nomination of new Fed governors, along with trade policy uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations, support the gold price. Meanwhile, the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The expectation of the Fed restarting the rate cut process drives the global stock market and industrial commodities to run strongly, and the London gold-silver ratio slightly drops to 89.2. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. Medium-Term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the relatively underperforming silver and platinum markets, and the gold-silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 784.16 | 787.42 | 784.30 | 785.36 | 0.15% | 433,180 | - 4596 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,093 | 9,217 | 9,113 | 9,199 | 1.17% | 789,871 | 5,633 | | Gold T + D | 779.92 | 781.70 | 775.17 | 779.63 | - 0.04% | 216,324 | 7,234 | | Silver T + D | 9,052 | 9,168 | 9,045 | 9,150 | 1.08% | 3,470,566 | 27,222 | [5] Group 6: Main Macro Events/Data 1. In June, the US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China decreased by about one-third to $9.5 billion, the lowest since February 2004. In July, the US service industry business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years, highlighting the continuous drag of tariff policy uncertainty on enterprises [18]. 2. Trump will decide on the replacement for Fed governor Kugler before the weekend and has narrowed the list of candidates for the next Fed chair to four, including current National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed governor Warsh. Treasury Secretary Bessent is excluded because he wants to continue in his current position [18]. 3. The US will first impose a "small tariff" on drug imports and then increase the rate in about a year. Trump will announce tariffs on semiconductors and chips in about a week. Given India's continued purchase of Russian oil, Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has declined for four consecutive weeks. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, indicating a lack of willingness to support prices. Considering the large impact of tariffs on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, with large - container quotes concentrated at $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 from the end of July. The freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Historically, the peak usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rate in late August generally returns to the early - July level. Attention should be paid to the speed of freight rate decline and tariff negotiations. Due to the impact of tariffs on foreign trade and high shipping capacity supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season. Consider short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 28 to August 1, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with weakening demand and a slight decline in the composite index. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by exports. On August 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The EU and the US reached a tariff agreement with a 15% tariff rate. The EU will increase purchases of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The shipping demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, down 1.9% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: In June, US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks, and the suspension of 24% of US tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU, down 2.2% and 7.5% respectively from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing $750 billion of US energy products and US military equipment [10]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From August 4 to July 28, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a decline of 0.8%. The SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a decline of 12.0% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The trading data of multiple contracts on August 6 are provided, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Various charts are provided to show the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, and shipping - related price trends [13][17][19]

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 07 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | 表1：期货行情 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]