Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Geopolitical risks have eased, the US is gradually lifting sanctions on Venezuela and starting to sell Venezuelan crude oil, resulting in marginal bearishness on the supply side. Coupled with the inventory build - up pressure of nearly 3 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in Q1 2026, crude oil is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (main contract) | 58.19 | 58.62 | 59.57 | 57.46 | 1.7 | 27.71 | | Brent (main contract) | 62.6 | 63.02 | 63.92 | 61.83 | 1.66 | 45.85 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/barrel) | 431.7 | 437.5 | 440.1 | 429.8 | 2.75 | 8.66 | [6] Event - Trump met with the heads of 17 major oil companies at the White House. After the meeting, Trump said that oil companies would invest $100 billion in Venezuela to revitalize its oil industry. Oil companies have different attitudes. ExxonMobil is cautious about increasing investment, while Chevron expects to increase production by 120,000 barrels per day in 18 - 24 months, and Repsol expects to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day in two to three years [6] Group 5: Industry News - Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: In addition to Switzerland as an intermediate channel, the communication channel between Iran and the US special envoy remains open [8] - US President Trump: He is in contact with Iranian opposition leaders and is studying very tough options against Iran. The military is also studying this matter [8] - US President Trump: Cuba has relied on a large amount of oil and funds from Venezuela for years, but this will no longer happen. He strongly advises Cuba to reach an agreement quickly [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. The data sources are Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [10][14][21][23]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January 2026, as negative factors gradually materialized, the bond market's yield may first rise and then fall. With the easing of the supply - demand mismatch at the beginning of the year and the central bank's possible support before the Spring Festival, the bond market may see a low - level recovery. Currently, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market is being digested, and the current price level may attract early - year allocation forces, so Treasury bond futures may stabilize at a low level [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The weakening suppression from the stock market and the support from allocation forces kept the bond market stable. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The inter - bank funding market was stable, with a net reverse - repo injection of 361 billion yuan in the open market today [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile due to market speculation on interest - rate cuts and long - bond supply expectations, as well as pressure from the stock market's Spring Festival rally. In January, as negative factors are gradually materializing, after the initial high - pressure period of supply - demand mismatch, and with the central bank's possible support before the Spring Festival, Treasury bond futures may have a low - level recovery opportunity. The bond market's yield may first rise and then fall this month. With the release of economic data this week, the market should focus on fundamental information. Currently, the bond market may stabilize at a low level [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Policy**: The State Council Executive Meeting deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies for service providers, individual consumers, and small and medium - sized enterprises, and establishing a guarantee plan for private investment and a risk - sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds [13] - **Interest Rates**: Most bank large - denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) have interest rates below 2%, and some small and medium - sized banks' products have rates below 1%. The term structure of large - denomination CDs shows a short - term trend [14] - **Real Estate**: In 2025, the transaction planned construction area of residential land in 300 cities decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the transfer fees decreased by 10.6% year - on - year. However, high - value land parcels in some cities continued to break records [14] - **Overseas**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on Treasury bond futures includes trading data of various contracts, cross - term spreads of main contracts, cross - variety spreads, and price trends [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: No specific data content is provided, only the source of data is mentioned [23] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Polysilicon Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Futures: Multiple polysilicon contracts hit the daily limit down. The PS2605 contract closed at 49,995 yuan/ton, down 2.89%. Trading volume was 42,510 lots, and open interest was 48,830 lots, a net decrease of 2,113 lots. The top 20 long positions decreased by 3,262 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 2,095 lots [4] - Spot: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10.5% [4] Market Outlook - Policy and Risk: In the 2026 polysilicon annual report, it was noted that the contradiction between involution and monopoly requires policy to balance market and moral risks. Since January 7, the policy has shifted from anti-involution to anti-monopoly, and the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products is negative. The exchange's risk control is strict, so it is advisable to wait and see [5] - Supply and Demand: Although the polysilicon price has moved up, the fundamentals are not expected to improve. The expected output of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream has entered a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices has squeezed the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off-season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. As of the second week of January, the polysilicon spot inventory was 311,800 tons [5] Group 3: Market News - On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,430 lots, an increase of 50 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market are neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of industrial silicon oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,755 yuan/ton, with a 0.75% increase. The trading volume was 269,300 lots, the open interest was 238,877 lots, a net decrease of 827 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net reduction of 1,799 lots, and short positions had a net increase of 5,299 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices remained stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the first quarter, the monthly average output is expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The organic silicon operating rate is stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage from anti - involution to anti - monopoly policy correction, with monthly output decreasing month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventories are high, enterprises are scattered, the market is dull, and spot prices are weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upside. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3.4 Market News - On January 12th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - round fattening pen utilization has increased slightly, and the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. Currently, the breeding side is slaughtering normally [7]. - On the demand side, after the spot price increase, second - round fattening has decreased and is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with reduced replenishment demand. Post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, and the demand for curing and sausage - making is nearly over. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but slaughterhouse orders are average after the holiday. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses are slowly increasing after the holiday [7]. - Overall, the spot market will fluctuate as post - holiday consumption recovers slowly but remains at a high level, and supply is relatively loose. In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly, and second - round fattening pressure is still high year - on - year, continuing to exert downward pressure. Although the previous epidemic in the north boosted the 03 contract, the epidemic is currently showing no signs of continuation or spread, and there is a risk of a decline [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On the 12th, the main 2603 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and closed down. The highest price was 11,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,725 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,735 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,497 lots to 365,587 lots [6]. Spot - On the 12th, the national average price of三元 pigs was 12.72 yuan/kg, a 0.02 yuan/kg increase from the previous day [6]. Group 5: Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 8th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a 45 yuan/head increase from the previous week [8][10] Group 6: Data Overview - As of January 8th, the average profit and loss per self - bred and self - raised pig was basically balanced, a 28 yuan/head increase week - on - week; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 129.8 yuan/head, a 31 yuan/head increase week - on - week [19]. - In the week of January 8th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.54kg, a 0.12kg decrease from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.09% [19].

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Zhengzhou cotton prices have declined under pressure. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton is 15,992 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm - price quotes have been lowered, and the basis has remained stable. The cotton yarn market has average trading volume, with few new orders. The all - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, with some pre - festival restocking in certain areas but in small quantities [7] - **Operational suggestions**: Overseas, the net long position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise, and the external market has shown signs of recovery. Domestically, the current industrial expectations have been traded, and attention should be paid to the actual decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season. The short - term upside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust, waiting for new drivers, while the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending January 6, the number of long positions in the non - commercial futures positions of CFTC US cotton was 81,409 (+247), increasing for the second consecutive week. The number of short positions was 110,329 (-1,790), changing from an increasing to a decreasing trend. The total ICE positions were 311,647 (+10,685), increasing for the sixth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 9.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [9] - As of January 11, 2026, in the 2025 cotton season, a total of 1,096 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,051,724 bales, totaling 6.7838 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 29,689,201 bales, totaling 6.7026 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area was 207,250 bales, totaling 46,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The data includes various aspects such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, the A - share market showed a "good start" at the beginning of the year. With the strengthening of the domestic economic improvement expectation, the slow - bull pattern of A - shares is gradually stabilizing. Long - term bullish thinking should be maintained, and the strategy is to buy on dips. IF and IC may perform relatively better [7][10]. - For treasury bonds, in January, bond yields may first rise and then fall. In the short term, the rebound sustainability of the bond market may be weak, and the release of fundamental data next week may provide new information and guidance [78][81][82]. - For shipping indices, the spot high may be approaching. Considering the increasing expectation of Red Sea route resumption after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [99]. 4. Summary by Directory Stock Index Market Review - The A - share market had a "good start" at the beginning of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and the total market turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. From January 5th to 9th, 2026, the A - share market rose with increased volume. Small and medium - cap stocks performed more strongly, and the futures market was stronger than the spot market [7]. - The US economic data shows resilience, and the Fed official Milan expects about 150 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2026. Domestically, CPI and PPI data are positive, and the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are taking effect. The performance of high - growth sectors such as military industry and high - end manufacturing is strong, while some traditional industries face pressure [10]. 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures increased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 2.82, 1.02, 3.90, and 2.77 million lots respectively compared with last week [11]. - The open interest of stock index futures generally increased. The average daily open interests of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 1.05, 0.49, 2.33, and 0.99 million lots respectively compared with last week [11]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis narrowed. The annualized basis rates of all major contracts increased compared with the previous week [16]. - The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were negative, and the spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts generally narrowed [24]. - The CSI 300 was stronger than the SSE 50, and small and medium - cap stocks performed better [25]. 行业板块概况 - In the CSI 300, the materials, medicine, and information sectors led the gains, while only the communication sector declined. In the CSI 500, the communication, information, and industrial sectors led the gains, and the financial sector had the smallest increase [27]. - At the first - level industry level, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains, and only the banking sector declined [32]. 估值比较 - As of January 9th, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at relatively high historical levels [34]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Due to the implementation of the new public fund fee regulations and concerns about the supply peak of interest - rate bonds, treasury bond futures fell from Monday to Wednesday and rebounded on Thursday. The long - term futures performed stronger than the spot in the long - end, while the short - end was the opposite. Currently, there is no positive arbitrage space for all major contracts, and attention should be paid to shorting the 30 - year basis. It is not recommended to participate in the inter - period strategy, and the flattening strategy is recommended [40][41][44]. - **Bond Spot Market**: The yields of most treasury bond spots increased this week. The A - share strength and supply concerns suppressed the bond market. The US bond yields first decreased and then increased, with little change overall [64]. - **Funding Situation**: After the New Year, the central bank withdrew funds, and the funding situation remained stable. The funding rates declined across the board [70][73]. - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of most interest rate swap varieties declined this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [76]. Market Analysis - **Recent Market Logic**: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January, as the negative factors gradually materialized, the bond market may first face pressure and then have a chance of low - level recovery [78]. - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: The December inflation data was better than expected. CPI and PPI showed a positive trend, indicating a mild recovery of inflation [79]. - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: In the short term, the bond market lacks clear direction, and the rebound sustainability may be weak. The release of fundamental data next week may provide new guidance [81][82]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - There are a large amount of reverse repurchase and other open - market operations maturing next week, and important economic data such as December social financing and import - export data will be released [84]. Shipping Index Market Review - Shipping companies lowered their quotes for late January, causing the EC futures to rise first and then fall significantly in the second half of the week [85]. 集运市场情况 - **Spot Market**: The price increase in December was well - implemented, and the quotes remained stable in the first half of January. However, shipping companies' price cuts for late January may indicate an inflection point in the spot market [90]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the European container capacity is still higher than the same period in previous years. With the potential delivery of new ships, the capacity may continue to grow. In the Red Sea area, the resumption of routes by major shipping companies may lead to short - term port congestion and long - term over - supply. In terms of demand, the European demand is expected to improve slowly, and the boost to shipping prices may be limited [95][96]. Market Outlook - The spot high may be approaching. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [99].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Short-term high prices suppress demand, but low LME inventories and mid-term demand are still valid. Copper prices are expected to oscillate to digest short-term selling pressure [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Mid-term supply and demand are promising. Short-term inventory accumulation concerns may cause prices to oscillate at high levels, but the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. - Aluminum: The aluminum market is still dominated by macro and capital sentiment. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand and are prone to rise rather than fall [43]. - Nickel: Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. - Zinc: The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation to digest the previous increase and wait for new directional guidance [105]. Summary by Directory Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main contract reached a high of 105,500 and then fell below 100,000. LME copper also showed a similar trend. Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently [7]. - Supply is still at a high level, but demand is weak in the short term due to high prices. However, the market is generally optimistic about the future demand growth space of copper. LME low inventories support copper prices, and short-term spot pressure is limited. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate import TC continues to decline, and the supply of cold materials is abundant. SMM expects that the output of smelters in January will decrease by 14,500 tons month-on-month. The import window for refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of downstream waste copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire enterprises have all declined. However, after the short-term decline in copper prices, downstream orders have been released. The current decline in operating rates is mainly due to high prices rather than a substantial lack of demand [7]. - **Spot Side**: Domestic inventories have increased, and it is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of "loose supply and cautious consumption" next week, and inventories will continue to accumulate [16]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, driving the spot price up. The rise in the first half of the week was due to supply concerns and capital enthusiasm, and the second half of the week was in high-level oscillation due to capital selling. The destocking process was interrupted this week [25]. - Supply growth is limited, and demand has not significantly stalled. Although the short-term inventory accumulation concerns are emerging, the mid-term supply and demand situation is good, and the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 115 tons. It is expected that the output in January will decrease compared with December last year, and the growth of lithium mica output is restricted. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from raw materials has increased [26][30]. - **Demand Side**: The output of cathode materials has declined, but the orders in the energy storage field have increased month-on-month. The final business conditions of ternary materials are expected to be favorable to manufacturers, and some iron lithium plants are expected to resume production [26]. - **Spot Side**: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract has deepened. The destocking process has been interrupted, and short-term concerns are emerging [34][35]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - At the beginning of 2026, aluminum prices rose sharply, and the import window was closed. Alumina and aluminum alloy also showed corresponding trends. Overseas speculative funds' enthusiasm for going long increased [40]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually easing, and the price of alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The short-term supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and high prices have suppressed downstream demand. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand [42][43]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The price of domestic bauxite has slightly decreased, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. The price of imported bauxite has also decreased, and the market is trading lightly [44]. - **Alumina**: It has rebounded with the general trend, and the import window remains open. The domestic alumina plant maintains a high level of operation [47][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window for aluminum ingots remains closed, and the net import in November has declined [56][63]. - **Downstream Consumption**: High aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the operating rates of processing enterprises are differentiated. It is expected that the operating rates will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [66]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [71]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the first week of 2026, Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a large fluctuation range. The spot market has obvious speculative inventory phenomena. The import window remains closed [75]. - Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable this week. In November 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased month-on-month [80]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: In December 2025, the national nickel pig iron output decreased month-on-month. The supply side continued to hold prices firm, and the demand side had some activity but still had differences between upstream and downstream [87]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. In December, the monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China increased month-on-month [92]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt continued to decline this week. In December, the monthly output of nickel sulfate decreased month-on-month [98]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the market sentiment is strong. The inquiry and transaction are relatively active [103]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Geopolitical risks have driven up the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals, but the zinc price has risen weakly this round. It has fallen back from a high level in the second half of the week. The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation [104][105]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. The import window for zinc ore is open, but the transaction is light. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in January will increase month-on-month [112][113]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide are different. Galvanizing has increased slightly, while die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide have decreased. The overall demand is weak in the off-season [114][115]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic inventories have increased, and LME zinc inventories have also increased [116].

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of rebar (RB2605), hot-rolled coil (HC2605), coke (J2605), and coking coal (JM2605) are expected to be volatile and strong. The iron ore price (I2605) is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival [6][7][8][9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Black Variety Strategy Recommendations - **Single-Side Strategy** - RB2605 (price: 3144): Volatile and strong, influenced by re - inflation cycle, price depression, production increase, demand shrinkage, inventory change, and cost support [6]. - HC2605 (price: 3294): Volatile and strong, with similar influencing factors as RB2605 [6]. - J2605 (price: 1748): Volatile and strong, affected by coal production quota reduction in Indonesia, coal export tariff, price depression, inventory change, and supply - demand transition [6]. - JM2605 (price: 1195.5): Volatile and strong, with influencing factors similar to J2605 [6]. - I2605 (price: 814.5): Maintain resilience, due to shipping and arrival trends, demand improvement, inventory situation, and pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand [6][11]. - **Arbitrage Strategy** - For cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, no clear trading directions were provided for RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM [6]. Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On January 9, the spot prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil markets mainly increased slightly [12]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased for three consecutive weeks, while the average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises decreased in late December [12]. - **Hot Metal and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average hot metal output increased for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly for two consecutive weeks [15]. - **Output and Inventory of Five Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills increased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills increased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [15]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in some cities increased [19]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national real estate development investment decreased year - on - year from January to November last year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [19]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed an obvious widening of the loss [24]. - **Spot Tons of Steel Gross Profit**: The spot tons of steel gross profit of long - process steel mills' rebar showed an expansion of the loss, and that of short - process steel mills decreased [28]. Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to be volatile and strong, and a strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment can be tried [32]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with fluctuations, ranging from 90 to 190 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate within the range of - 40 to 30 yuan/ton [33][35]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The spot prices of major coke markets decreased, and the prices of major coking coal markets decreased steadily for three consecutive weeks [36]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises increased [36]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The coke inventory at ports and steel enterprises increased, while that at independent coking plants decreased. The average profit of independent coking enterprises showed a continuous three - week loss [39]. - **Mine Output,开工率, and Inventory**: The daily average refined coal output and the opening rate of 523 sample mines increased, and the refined coal and raw coal inventories increased [40]. - **Import and Inventory of Coking Coal**: The import of coking coal from January to November last year decreased. The port inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, the inventory of independent coking plants increased, and that of steel enterprises decreased [44]. - **Output of Raw Coal and Coke**: The output of raw coal and coke from January to November last year increased year - on - year [44]. Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and coking coal are expected to continue to be volatile and strong, with a short - term pull - back for rhythm adjustment. A strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment can be tried [48][49]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [50]. - **Inventory and Port Clearance**: The inventory of 45 ports increased, the daily average port clearance decreased, the inventory available days of steel mills decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased. Steel mills are expected to start pre - festival replenishment in mid - to late January [54]. - **Shipping and Arrival**: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the arrival volume increased. The future shipping volume is expected to weaken, and the arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [58][59]. - **Domestic Output and Capacity Utilization**: The domestic iron ore output from January to November 2025 decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines increased. The national mine output is expected to continue to increase slightly [61]. - **Port Transaction Volume and Hot Metal Cost**: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume decreased, and the average tax - free hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills decreased for three consecutive weeks [63]. - **Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation, and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average hot metal output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and blast furnace opening rate of 247 sample steel mills increased. The profitability of steel enterprises decreased [63]. - **Output and Inventory of Five Steel Products**: The actual weekly output of five steel products increased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory and social inventory increased, and the total inventory increased [68]. - **Transportation Cost**: The main iron ore freight prices decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize freight index decreased [71]. Conclusions and Recommendations - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival. The supply side has pressure, but the demand side shows signs of improvement, and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand will boost the price [73]. - **Basis**: The basis of iron ore in Qingdao Port is expected to fluctuate within the range of 40 - 100 yuan/ton [74].