Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the 15th Five - Year Plan, the upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. But in the short - term, after the positive news of the Sino - US meeting and the disclosure of the third - quarter reports, policy expectations have weakened, market sentiment is flat, and the market may maintain a volatile consolidation near the key pressure level of 4000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style still focuses on the dumbbell strategy, with a balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [7][8] 4. Market Review - On November 4, the Wind All - A Index declined with shrinking volume, opening with a downward trend and slightly recovering in the late trading, closing down 1.03%, with only 30% of stocks rising. CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.75%, 0.11%, 1.67%, and 1.36% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the index futures market, futures performed weaker than spot. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.99%, 0.28%, 2.00%, and 1.54% respectively (based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 5. Market Outlook - **External Market**: The leaders of China and the United States met in Busan, South Korea, reaching consensus on issues such as "fentanyl tariffs", export controls, shipbuilding, fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual enterprise cases. However, since market expectations were already high, the market weakened after the positive news was confirmed [7] - **Domestic Market**: September economic data showed increased fundamental pressure, with social retail consumption and fixed - asset investment lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Policy support is needed. The Fourth Plenary Session communique confirmed the content of the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the detailed content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on the 28th, boosting confidence and providing policy guidance for the future market style. The margin trading balance has continuously broken historical records and is currently fluctuating at a high level. A potential interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown of the trend of household deposits moving into the market needs further observation [7] 6. Industry News - On October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for improving China - Canada relations. On November 3, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that China is willing to work with Canada to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, aiming to bring China - Canada relations back on a healthy, stable, and sustainable track [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between China and the US on soybean procurement is expected to reduce the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year from oversupply to a tight balance, leaving room for the US CBOT soybeans to rise. The increase in China's import cost of soybeans will drive up the price of soybean meal. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view [6] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined slightly on the day. The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fell, with the main contract at 1125 cents. If China purchases 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years as the US stated, it will have a significant impact on the soybean market [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view. However, the uncertainty lies in the implementation of the policy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The report was not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [9] - According to analysts' estimates, as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91%, and the corn harvest rate reached 83%. It is expected that the US will have a record - high corn harvest this year, and soybeans will also have a good harvest [10]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of eggs is stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.86 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.17 yuan/jin. The 12 - contract fell 0.16%. In the spot market, large - sized eggs are in short supply while small - sized eggs are abundant at the end of the month, indicating high levels of both egg - laying start and culling. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate at a low level in November. [8] - In the futures market, although the absolute price is at a historical low, due to the early stage of accelerated culling, the high - supply situation will continue for some time. The weak demand also suppresses the spot price. The upside is limited, and the accelerated culling restricts the downside. It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year, and weekly culling data should be monitored. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2601 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 3341, the opening price was 3347, the highest price was 3369, the lowest price was 3326, the closing price was 3337, down 4 or 0.12%. The trading volume was 98,689, and the open interest was 165,925 with an open - interest change of 155,516. [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 2892, the opening price was 2904, the highest price was 2946, the lowest price was 2892, the closing price was 2928, up 36 or 1.24%. The trading volume was 35,540, and the open interest change was - 45. [7] - For the 2512 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 3149, the opening price was 3157, the highest price was 3189, the lowest price was 3132, the closing price was 3144, down 5 or 0.16%. The trading volume was 248,353, the open interest was 166,976, and the open - interest change was - 10,026. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. Monitor weekly culling data for long - term trends. [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a 0.2% month - on - month increase, with growth for 9 consecutive months and a 6.0% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last year. [9] - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks by sample enterprises in September was about 39.2 million, down from 39.81 million in August and significantly lower than 45.64 million in the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past three months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset. [9] - From the first to the third week as of October 23, the national culling volumes were 20.02 million, 20.32 million, and 19.76 million respectively. As of October 23, the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from last week and 1 day later than last month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - farming profits, the average price in the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of the 12 - contract, the basis of the 11 - contract, and the price difference between the 12 - 02 contracts, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen. [11][15][16]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Report Date: November 05, 2025 - Report Industry: Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be range - bound as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - fattening is weak [8]. - The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, is likely to trend weakly with fluctuations due to the potential slight increase in supply before the Spring Festival, concentrated second - fattening in October, farmers' reluctance to sell, and continuous release of production capacity [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,685 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 5,066 lots to 362,390 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.97 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - fattening and weight - holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November is 26.66 million heads, a 3.27% decrease from the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average is flat, with general enthusiasm for slaughter at the beginning of the month [8]. - **Demand Analysis**: After the spot price rebounded to a high level, second - fattening has turned to a wait - and - see attitude. With the cooling weather, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. Slaughterhouse orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume fluctuate slightly. Mid - to late - month bacon curing and sausage making may increase slightly. On November 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 158,000 heads, down 600 from the previous day, 4,600 week - on - week, and 12,300 month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points and the same as the previous year [16]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [16]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg [16]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September (a monthly decline of 0.23%) and an increase of 2.2 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.75%) [16]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [16].

Report Information - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Research Analysts: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there are phased disturbances leading to market over - adjustment, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: At the beginning of the month, funds were loose, the stock market continued to adjust, and the sentiment in the bond market was okay. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term increases and long - term decreases, with narrow fluctuations in the medium and long - term. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.1bp to 1.789% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the funding situation was stable and loose. There were 475.3 billion yuan of maturities in the open market, and the central bank injected 117.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by 0.75bp to 1.4262%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic fundamentals are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and a possible decline in exports. The market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened, and the restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit from wide - fiscal policies on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and allocation opportunities should be seized if there is market over - adjustment [11][12] 2. Industry News - **China's Manufacturing PMI**: China's S&P manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month. The expansion of the manufacturing PMI slowed down overall [13] - **US - China Relations**: The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [13] - **China - EU Exports**: China and the EU held export control dialogue and consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [13] - **High - level Forecast**: Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the coming years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [13] - **Exhibition Information**: The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th, and Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony [13] - **US Fed Policy**: Fed Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information. Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts [14] - **US Government Shutdown**: As of November 4th, the US federal government's shutdown entered the 35th day, tying the longest - ever shutdown record [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on November 4th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests. It also mentions information on cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate change [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,481 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 3,969 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,431 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.26%, with a position increase of 5,201 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.68 cents/pound, up 0.25 cents or 1.73%, with a position increase of 6,787 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 14.24 cents/pound, up 0.19 cents or 1.35%, with a position increase of 1,513 contracts [7] Market Performance - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, with the March contract up 1.72% to 14.68 cents/pound - London ICE white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton - The sugar price rebounded technically after hitting a new low - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The 01 contract closed at 5,481 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 3,969 contracts - Domestic spot prices in production areas declined slightly. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,710 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar at 5,600 yuan/ton - The domestic market was relatively calm. Market research institutions believe that Guangxi is likely to increase production this year - Zhengzhou sugar's rebound was weak, mainly because large speculative short - sellers stopped reducing positions [7][8] Industry News India - India Ratings and Research said that the increase in sugarcane prices in Uttar Pradesh will increase sugar mills' costs by 8%. Therefore, price increases for sugar and ethanol are crucial for maintaining profits - The Uttar Pradesh government decided to raise the sugarcane guidance price (SAP) for the 2025 - 26 crushing season by 30 rupees per quintal, which may increase the production cost of sugar mills in the state by about 8%. Unless sugar and ethanol prices rise, it will pressure the profitability of sugar mills - This move raises the standard guidance price to 400 rupees per quintal, which was frozen for two years. It is expected to increase the production cost of sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 35 - 40% of India's total sugar production, by 2.5 to 3 rupees per kilogram. The impact will appear from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 as old inventories are consumed [9] Brazil - According to Unica data, in the first half of October 2025, there were 255 production units operating in the central - southern region of Brazil (3 fewer than the same period in the previous crushing season), including 234 engaged in sugarcane processing, 10 using corn to produce ethanol, and 11 flexible factories. During this period, 12 factories ended sugarcane processing - Sugarcane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a slight increase of 0.30% year - on - year, but with regional differences. The crushing volume in São Paulo state decreased by 5.04% year - on - year to 18.904 million tons, while that in other states increased by 7.88% to 15.133 million tons - Sugarcane's sugar yield (ATR) was 158.78 kg/ton, a decrease of 0.96% year - on - year - Sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year. However, the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2% (47.33% in the same period last year). The declines in São Paulo and Paraná states were more significant, reaching 3.4 and 9.1 percentage points respectively - Total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a decrease of 1.17% year - on - year. Among them, anhydrous ethanol production increased by 6.93% to 772 million liters, hydrous ethanol production decreased by 5.61% to 1.241 billion liters, and corn - based ethanol production reached 370.56 million liters, an increase of 4.94% year - on - year [9][10] Data Overview Futures Trading Data - The table shows the trading volume, position changes of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures. The total trading volume was 206,336 lots, a decrease of 31,355 lots; the total long position was 247,781 lots, a decrease of 1,228 lots; the total short position was 291,926 lots, a decrease of 2,142 lots [22]

Group 1: Report Date - The report date is November 05, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (industrial silicon/polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), and Liu Youran (pulp) [1][3] Group 3: Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.91%. The trading volume was 274,348 lots, and the open interest was 12,968 lots, with a net decrease of 14,968 lots [4] Group 4: Spot Prices - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The significant repair of polysilicon profits suppresses the willingness for active production cuts. The monthly output remains at around 130,000 tons, and the supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed. The price continued to weaken during the day. The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index led to a sharp decline in the prices of externally - priced commodities. Multiple equity markets also declined simultaneously, spreading strong macro - hedging risk signals. The fundamental situation of polysilicon itself remains weak. The previous 01 contract had a significant premium, resulting in weak price support within a narrow range. The net long positions of the 01 contract decreased by 7,983 lots, and the price is expected to oscillate in the lower half of the range [4] Group 6: Market News - On November 04, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,590 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5] - On October 27, Daquan Energy announced that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.773 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.75%, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The announcement also showed that the revenue in the first three quarters was 3.243 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.00%, and the net profit loss was 1.073 billion yuan [5] - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its Q3 2025 report. In the third quarter, the company achieved an operating income of 24.091 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.57%. However, the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company narrowed, with a year - on - year reduction of 62.69% and a quarter - on - quarter reduction of 86.68%. The recovery of the industry environment had a positive impact on the company's profitability [5]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash and glass, dated November 5, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly, with supply stable, inventory slightly decreasing, and potential demand changes due to production line shutdowns. Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality", with short - term price fluctuations and medium - term direction determined by fundamentals [8][9] Section Summaries 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On November 4, SA601 opened low and closed at 1189 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-1.73%), with 40,018 additional positions. SA605 closed at 1280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) [7][8] - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production increased by 1.70 tons to 75.76 tons. Demand at the end of October showed an increase of 2.53%. Alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.20 tons. Four coal - fired glass production lines in Shahe may affect demand, and the market may face oversupply in winter [8] - **Glass Futures Data**: FG601 closed at 1105 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.18%), with 105,499 fewer positions. FG605 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [7] - **Glass Fundamentals**: Four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will shut down. Glass supply is at a high level. Factory inventory is high, and real - estate demand is weak. The market is in a game between expectation and reality, with short - term price fluctuations [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass, including active contract price trends, weekly production, and enterprise inventory, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 6888 yuan/ton, closed at 6879 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.48%); PP2601 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.65%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Futures opened lower and fluctuated, downstream procurement was on - demand, and actual transactions were negotiated individually [6] - Supply Situation: In October, Guangxi Petrochemical's device produced products smoothly, and there are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance devices will restart, and PP maintenance losses will decline month - on - month [6] - Demand Situation: Agricultural film production reached a seasonal peak and declined, pipe demand increased first and then decreased, PP woven production was boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises focused on inventory digestion [6] - Price Trend: Polyolefin prices are expected to remain under pressure, and may be weakly supported by phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices, but will generally fluctuate in the bottom range [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On November 4, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day, compared with 72 million tons in the same period last year [7] - PE Market: PE market prices continued to be weak, with LLDPE prices in different regions ranging from 6830 - 7500 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 5830 - 5840 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some PDH device maintenance supported supply, but downstream demand declined [7] - PP Market: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices down 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and mainstream prices in different regions ranging from 6360 - 6610 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data Graphs: Include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change graphs [15][17][18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - On November 3, Shanghai aluminum opened high and went higher, with the main 2512 contract closing at 21,600 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase, hitting a new high for the year. The spot market showed that although traders in East China increased shipments, downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices. The import window was closed, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the spot import loss expanding to about -2,600 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the follow - up under the support of a positive macro - environment [9]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Performance - On November 3, the main 2512 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,600 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [9]. - In the spot market, East China reported at par, Central China at a discount of -140, and South China at a discount of -150. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss expanded to about -2,600 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Analysis - Domestic bauxite remained tight. Mines in the north affected by environmental protection and the rainy season could resume production, but the specific time awaited government approval. The price increase of northern bauxite was expected to be limited due to high inventory and weak restocking willingness of alumina plants, while southern bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite was sluggish, and the price of Guinean bauxite was under pressure. Policy disturbances in November should be noted [9]. - Alumina remained in surplus, and the import window was open, with pressure from overseas inflows. In the north, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection requirements after heating in November and annual carbon emission verifications. The low - price situation and long - term delivery obligations put great pressure on enterprises, and the spot long - term settlement price in November was close to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, which might lead to production cuts [9]. - Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, providing strong cost support. After November, the traditional peak season basically ended, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level following Shanghai aluminum [9]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic operating capacity remained high with limited changes. The production cuts of Century Aluminum this month and the expected production cuts of Mozambique Aluminum next year might intensify the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. With positive macro - factors such as successful Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the aluminum market was expected to be strong in the follow - up [9]. Group 5: Industry News - On October 30, the second - phase alumina project of the Guinea Aluminum Development Project of State Power Investment Corporation officially started. It is planned to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and supporting facilities, and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Mercuria, a global commodity trading giant, is transporting over 30,000 tons of aluminum from Port Klang, Malaysia, to New Orleans, USA, presumably to meet the needs of its US customers. Mercuria's long - term holding of over 90% of LME aluminum warehouse receipts is considered the key factor for the premium of LME near - month aluminum contracts over far - month contracts [10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported cans) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested implementing different strategies for the "anti - involution" of the non - ferrous metal smelting industry, including setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals, enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals, and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalization and high added - value [10].