1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. Considering that the central bank has started bond purchases, the bottom of treasury bond futures is supported. Coupled with the slowdown in economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is advisable to pay attention to next week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to layout on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Today's weak export data and the A-share market's rise and then fall had limited support for the bond market. With the central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds in recent days, the liquidity tightened slightly, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities rose. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8070%, up 0.6bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the liquidity tightened marginally. Today, there were 3551 billion yuan of open - market operations due, and the central bank injected 1417 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan. This was the fifth consecutive day of net withdrawal this week. The inter - bank funds sentiment index rose slightly, indicating marginal tightening of liquidity. Among them, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits among banks rose slightly by 1.5bp to 1.33%, the 7 - day rate fell slightly by 1.24bp to 1.413%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: Since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. In particular, the investment side has accelerated its decline, and the export, which was the main support for the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of falling exports and weak domestic demand still poses significant pressure on the economic fundamentals. Currently, the central bank is implementing loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Referring to past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **Foreign Trade Data**: On November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in October, China's exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a growth of 8.3% in the previous period; imports increased by 1%, compared with a growth of 7.4% in the previous period; the trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, compared with 904.5 billion US dollars in the previous period [13]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank released the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October, showing a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading. This means that the treasury bond trading operation that was suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. In addition, the central bank announced that it would conduct a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 [13]. - **US Economic Situation**: The severe employment situation in the United States has led to an increase in expectations of an interest - rate cut. Revelio Labs reported that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 9100 in October, compared with an increase of 33000 in the previous month. In addition, the number of job cuts by Challenger Gray & Christmas in the United States in October reached 153100, a year - on - year surge of 175.3%, the highest level for the same period since 2003. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December exceeds 70%. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government has led to the suspension of the release of official inflation data, causing some Federal Reserve officials to worry about the future direction of monetary policy [13][14]. - **Real Estate News**: Recently, many real - estate enterprises have made significant progress in debt restructuring. As of now, 21 troubled real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which will greatly relieve the short - term public debt repayment pressure of these enterprises. Industry insiders believe that the approval of debt restructuring and reorganization of troubled real - estate enterprises will accelerate the process of clearing real - estate risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on November 7, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Black Variety Strategy Recommendations RB2601 - Latest Price: 3034 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Strongly - Dominant Factors: New environmental protection and production restriction draft released, steel mills' production reduction rhythm accelerating, large demand decline, slowdown in social inventory destocking, iron ore price decline, continued strength of coking coal prices, favorable industrial policies, positive macro - economic expectations, temporary suspension of trade war disturbances, and medium - long - term anti - involution [6] HC2601 - Latest Price: 3245 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Decline in both production and apparent demand of five major steel products, continuous decline in daily average hot metal output for 6 weeks with an enlarged decline recently, continuous narrowing of steel mills' profits suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand, and steel mills maintaining on - demand restocking [6] I2601 - Latest Price: 760.5 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Similar to HC2601 [6] Group 3: Unilateral Logic Basis RB2601 and HC2601 - Message: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter requirements on replacement ratios than the 2021 version. Also, it proposed restrictions on capacity replacement between different enterprises in the future [7] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' production reduction rhythm is accelerating, but due to large demand decline, social inventory destocking slows down. Iron ore prices have fallen since late October, while coking coal prices remain strong, and steel costs are still resilient. Steel futures are expected to have limited downside space, and may rebound in mid - to - late November [7][8] I2601 - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and arrivals have rebounded after two weeks of low levels. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high, and the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea in November may suppress far - month contracts. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output has continuously declined, and steel production and demand have decreased. Steel mills are restocking on - demand, and port inventory is accumulating [9] Group 4: Steel Analysis Fundamentals - Price: Some prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined in the week of November 7 [11] - Production: Blast furnace capacity utilization rate and crude steel output of key enterprises, daily average hot metal output, and production of five major steel products all decreased. Steel mills' inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [12][15] - Inventory: Rebar social inventory in 35 cities decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, while hot - rolled coil social inventory in 33 cities increased [18] - Demand: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and shipbuilding production increased year - on - year [18] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and rebar contract's disk profit showed an expanding loss [21] - Spot Gross Margin: Spot gross margin of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar showed expanding losses [25] Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Downside space is limited. Consider buying hedging or investment in large basis intervals, or arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to spot market resilience and production data [25][28] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate between 120 - 180 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate between 0 - 40 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Fundamentals - Price and Spread: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder price decreased. Spreads between some high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder changed [32] - Inventory and Ship - unloading Volume: 45 - port iron ore inventory accumulated rapidly, daily average ship - unloading volume increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventory available days remained at 21 days [35] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and arrivals increased. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high [39] - Domestic Production and Capacity Utilization: Domestic iron ore production decreased year - on - year, and domestic mine capacity utilization rate decreased [47] - Port Trading Volume and Hot Metal Cost: Port trading volume increased, and the average hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [49] - Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation: Daily average hot metal output decreased, blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased, and blast furnace operation rate increased. Steel enterprises' profitability decreased [52] - Steel Production and Inventory: Production and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and total inventory decreased [54] - Transportation Cost: Major iron ore freight prices increased, and BDI and BCI indices rose [59] Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Supply has an increasing expectation, demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. Consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [64][65] - Basis: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot price and iron ore futures 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [65]

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged due to the easing external environment and new policy expectations from the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the short - term, the index may oscillate around the key pressure level of 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. A dumbbell strategy with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 is recommended [13]. - For treasury bonds, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. It is recommended to seize allocation opportunities when there is market over - adjustment [87]. - For shipping indexes, although the actual demand may not support large price increases, the freight rate is likely to form an upward trend, and the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [108]. Summary by Section Stock Index Market Review - The A - share market has shown a pattern of "short - term correction followed by strong performance, and rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks" since the beginning of the year. From November 3 - 7, the A - share market rose with reduced volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.62%, and large - cap blue - chip stocks performed better. Futures were weaker than the spot index [7][8]. - Looking ahead, concerns about liquidity in the US market and high expectations for Sino - US tariff negotiations have led to a weakening market after the positive news was released. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in September faced more pressure, and the export data in October showed a downward trend. Although the margin trading balance provided support, the participation of retail investors was not high. The overall A - share trading volume returned to 2 trillion yuan, and its sustainable growth needs attention [12][13]. 成交持仓分析 - Stock index trading volume decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 1.13, 0.71, 0.79, and 0.46 million lots respectively compared with last week. The positions showed a differentiated trend. IF and IM positions increased, while IH and IC positions decreased [14]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis showed a differentiated trend. The basis of CSI 300 and CSI 500 widened, while that of SSE 50 changed from premium to discount, and the basis of CSI 1000 narrowed. The annualized basis rate of each index decreased. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IC, and IM widened, while that of IH narrowed. The spread between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of all varieties widened. Large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better [16][26][32]. Industry Sector Overview - In the CSI 300, the energy, industrial, and financial sectors led the gains, while the pharmaceutical, optional consumer, and information sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the energy, public utilities, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the real estate, pharmaceutical, and information sectors led the losses. Among the first - level industries, the power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while the beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology sectors led the losses [33][35]. Valuation Comparison - As of November 7, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.3295, 11.9766, 33.464, and 47.8124 times respectively, and they were at the 88.07%, 91.32%, 79.72%, and 77.08% percentile levels in the past decade [38]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The central bank's bond - buying was slightly lower than expected, and the warming of the A - share market suppressed the bond market. The performance of long - term futures was slightly stronger than that of spot bonds, while the opposite was true for short - term bonds. There is a certain positive arbitrage space for each variety's main contract, and there is a large reverse arbitrage space for non - CTD bonds of 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. The basis of the 10 - year main contract is slightly high and has the motivation to converge. The spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is expected to continue to narrow during the position - shifting process. A flattening strategy is recommended [42][44][51]. - **Bond Spot Market**: Most of the spot yields of treasury bonds increased this week, with a larger increase at the short end. The yield of US Treasury bonds first decreased and then increased [65]. - **Funding Situation**: At the beginning of the month, there was a net withdrawal of funds. The central bank conducted an equal - amount renewal of the 3 - month outright reverse repurchase due this month. The overall funding situation was stable, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [70]. - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of interest rate swap varieties increased slightly this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [85]. Market Analysis - The bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. Currently, the economic fundamentals still face pressure, and the market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The restart of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market, and the impact of wide - credit expectations on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the bond market environment has improved [87]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - There are a total of 783 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due next week, and important economic data such as China's October social financing data and national economic activity data will be released [95]. Shipping Index Market Review - The reduction of quotes hit the sentiment of long - positions. This week, the SCFIS index turned down again. On the spot side, shipping companies reduced the price increase, which hit the sentiment of long - positions and led to a sharp decline in EC futures [96]. Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean routes continued to rebound, with the rates of European and American routes rising. Shipping companies continued to raise the quotes for November and December, but the increase was lower than before. Considering the general demand and the decline of the SCFIS index, it is uncertain whether the price increase can be fully implemented [102][103]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in November remained at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential and actual shipping capacities are expected to continue to grow. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, and the probability of the Red Sea resuming navigation within the year is low. On the demand side, the macro - demand in the eurozone continues to recover weakly, and the demand at the end - of - year peak season may be lower than expected, so the support for container shipping prices is limited [106][107]. Market Outlook - Although the actual demand may not support a large price increase, the freight rate is likely to form an upward trend, and the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [108].

Report Information - Report Type: Macro Precious Metals Weekly Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Fed may pause rate cuts again, which will support the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields in the short term and suppress the upward momentum of stocks and commodities including gold [8]. - The precious metals intermediate bull market that started in March 2024 has not ended. London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position trading strategy [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Review 1.1 Economy - **Domestic**: In October 2025, China's total exports shrank by 1.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 9.4 percentage points compared to September. Total imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 6.4 percentage points. From January to October, China's cumulative total exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 0.8 percentage points; cumulative total imports shrank by 0.9% year - on - year, with the shrinkage degree narrowing by 0.2 percentage points; the cumulative trade surplus was $964.82 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports to the US shrank by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export share decreased from 14.7% in 2024 to 11.4%; exports to the EU increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the export share increased from 14.4% to 14.9%; exports to ASEAN increased by 14.5% year - on - year, and the export share increased from 16.4% to 17.5% [5]. - **International**: Due to the continued shutdown of the US federal government, official statistical data has been missing since October. In October, ADP private non - farm payrolls increased by 42,000, better than the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a preliminary reversal of the employment contraction in the past two months, but the overall weakness of the job market has not been fundamentally improved. Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that US companies announced 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest in more than 20 years, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, and the scale of corporate recruitment plans also dropped to the lowest level in the same period since 2011 [7]. 1.2 Focus - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated on November 6 that the US real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 would grow at an annualized rate of 4% quarter - on - quarter. The Fed may pause rate cuts again soon after restarting the rate - cut process, which will support the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields in the short term and suppress the upward momentum of stocks and commodities including gold [8]. - After the Fed's October meeting, many officials expressed their views on monetary policy. The threshold for the Fed to cut rates again at the December 9 - 10 meeting is rising. On November 7, the market's probability of the Fed cutting rates by 75BP within the year was 61.8%, a slight decline of 1 percentage point from the previous week [9][11]. - On November 5, the US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection. Trump said that if he loses the lawsuit, he will consider changing the legal basis to maintain his tariff measures, but these measures will take a long time to implement [12]. - On November 5, Russian President Putin ordered the government to draft a nuclear weapons test plan. Russia's Defense Minister reported that preparations for a full - scale nuclear test should be made immediately [13]. 1.3 Policy - On October 29, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement on the gold tax policy, aiming to regulate the gold market, expand tax sources, and suppress the boom in private gold investment. It is expected to have an impact on China's private physical gold investment demand, but it has little impact on gold prices [14]. 2. Precious Metals Market Analysis 2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure, with short - and medium - term resistance levels at 7.06 and 6.97 respectively [24]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8 - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [27]. 2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,040.4 tons, 21.4% higher than the阶段性 low in May 2024; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,114 tons, 13.4% higher than the阶段性 low in May 2024 [28]. 2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system continue to push up the volatility center of gold prices. In the medium - term, the risk of stagflation in the US and global economic recession is rising, which makes gold prices stronger [31]. - In the short - term, gold prices soared to a record high in mid - October but then significantly corrected. The internal adjustment risk of gold and silver prices has been partially released. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity to go long again [33][35]. 2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai on Friday was 82.3 and 80.2 respectively. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive; the negative correlation between gold and the real US Treasury yield has weakened; the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened; and the positive correlation between gold and silver remains strong [37].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a carbon market weekly report dated November 07, 2025, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Carbon Market Weekly Summary - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 10,525,810 tons and 487,117,084.12 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, they were 30,936,720 tons and 1,496,842,246.87 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,475,000 yuan [7] - In the first week of November, the comprehensive price had a high of 58.51 yuan/ton, a low of 51.54 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57.79 yuan/ton, up 11.22% from the previous Friday. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 3,981,155 tons and 209,744,110.26 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, 5,154,502 tons and 248,501,748.01 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,894,850 yuan. The total trading volume and turnover were 9,235,657 tons and 463,140,708.27 yuan [7] - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining. The current price is around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the 2024 high. The new policy aims to solve the problem of enterprises' reluctance to sell. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule. The price may stabilize after the selling pressure eases in November [8] - According to the Fudan Carbon Index, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [8][9] Group 3: Market News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that in September, the全社会 electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, up 4.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year - on - year. The third - quarter electricity consumption was 2.9 trillion kWh, driven by high - temperature in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [10] - On October 24, it was announced that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, build a new energy system, and implement the dual - control system of carbon emission volume and intensity. It aims to reach about 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste utilization by 2030 and save over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries, reducing about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - Recently, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market to mainly cover industrial emission industries by 2027, implement quota control and paid distribution, gradually tighten quotas, strengthen the synergy between the carbon market and industrial policies, and accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [10] Group 4: Market Data - There are figures about the national carbon market price trend, pilot carbon market price, power generation year - on - year growth rate, and new power generation equipment year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [6][7][12]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - **Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - **CFTC Positions**: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory**: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - **Import Supply: Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing**: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - **Cost, Income and Breeding Profit**: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The international oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term but face continuous oversupply pressure in the medium - term. For oil, it is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand and a narrowing basis after the decline. [35] - The PTA market is expected to rise slightly, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to continue a slight rebound. [62] - The price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly, with cost support and weak supply - demand factors. [71] - The soda ash market is expected to see the futures price drop to near the recent low, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through the 1200 yuan/ton resistance level. [79] - The industrial silicon futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is strong resistance above. [101] - The polysilicon futures price will oscillate in a wide range, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - The pulp market will have a limited short - term rebound and is advisable for reverse arbitrage. [140] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: International oil prices oscillated this week with a narrowing amplitude. The market lacks short - term drivers and is expected to oscillate. Medium - term oversupply pressure persists. Operationally, try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: US crude inventories increased, refinery inputs rose seasonally, and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ will stop increasing production in Q1 2026, but it's hard to reverse the oversupply. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the inventory accumulation rate is accelerating. [9][10][11] Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end (crude oil) lacks support. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the basis has narrowed after the decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [34][35] - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost end has mid - term oversupply pressure. The asphalt production capacity may increase slightly next week. Demand shows regional differentiation, with weak speculative demand. Factory and social inventories both decreased this week. [36][37][39] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil fundamentals are mixed, and PX is expected to oscillate strongly, supporting PTA costs. PTA is expected to rise slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly. [61][62] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption is stable in the short - term but has a weakening expectation. PTA supply may decrease, and its fundamentals are strong. Ethylene glycol has cost support and a rebound demand. [63][64][66] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end supports the market, but supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. [71] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption support is limited. The short - fiber industry's operation is stable, and supply is sufficient. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand factors drag down the price. [72][73][74] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated weakly this week, with supply remaining high, demand weakening, and inventory slightly increasing. It is expected to drop further, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through 1200 yuan/ton. [76][78][79] - **Market Conditions**: Supply is stable with a slight decline in production. Inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. Glass demand for soda ash is weakening, and exports decreased in September. [80][83][93] Industrial Silicon - **Futures Review and Outlook**: The futures price has been oscillating strongly recently. The main driving force is the seasonal production reduction in the southwest, but the supply - demand imbalance improvement is limited. The price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term with strong upper resistance. [101] - **Fundamental Overview**: The price of industrial silicon and its related products is stable. Inventory is slowly accumulating, and production is decreasing. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and other products is relatively stable. [102][103][105] Polysilicon - **Market Review and Outlook**: The price is weaker than other varieties this week. The supply - demand improvement drive is limited. The price will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term and oscillate in a wide range. It is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals**: The prices of main products in the industry are stable. Inventory has increased slightly. Production in the supply - end may decline in November, mid - stream demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. [124][125][126] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The futures price rebounded this week. Macro pressure has weakened, imports have decreased, and inventory has declined, but the industry profit improvement is limited. The short - term rebound space is limited, and reverse arbitrage is advisable. [139][140] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries in August increased. China's pulp imports decreased in October. Global and domestic pulp inventories have different trends. Downstream paper performance is still differentiated. [141][149][156]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to continue to rebound due to the approaching supply inflection point and continuous inventory reduction, with the current futures price approaching the spot price [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract closing above 80,000. The total open interest increased by 25,948 lots. The spot price of electric carbon decreased by 100 to 80,400. Australian ore and lithium mica ore remained flat, ternary materials remained flat, lithium iron phosphate decreased by 20 - 30, and electrolytes increased by 250 - 1,000. The industry chain continued to show resistance to decline, and the upward trend of electrolytes remained unchanged [12]. - Social inventories decreased by 3,405 tons this week, compared with a decrease of 3,008 tons the previous week, indicating an increasing de - stocking effort [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Australia's PrairieLithium has started the construction of the largest direct lithium extraction (DLE) plant in North America in Canada. It is expected to receive 4 commercial - scale DLE columns in April 2026. The project has over 345,000 acres of underground mining permits and inferred and controlled resources equivalent to about 4.6 million tons of lithium carbonate, providing long - term supply security [13]. - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine phase - I project in Mali was officially launched on November 3. As of now, the project has produced over 45,000 tons of spodumene. The phase - I target annual production capacity is 125,000 tons, with an average lithium oxide grade of 5.5% [13][14]. - Chile's customs data shows that in October, Chile's lithium exports were 27,562 tons, including 24,769 tons of lithium carbonate. Exports of lithium carbonate to China were 16,210 tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease but a 46% month - on - month increase [14].

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply of iron ore has growth expectations, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of downstream steel enterprises' profits. The overall fundamentals are weak, leading to a weak operation of ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear mainline logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can try the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On November 6, the main quotes of major iron ore external markets remained flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ores at Qingdao Port were mainly flat compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has enlarged since yesterday's death - cross [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly increased after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering that the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks reached 109.784 billion tons, a 3.78% increase compared with the same period last month, and as the end of the year approaches, the shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrivals in November are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea by Rio Tinto is expected to be in November, with a relatively low short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but the price of far - month iron ore contracts may be suppressed under the expectation of increased supply. - In terms of demand, the current daily average pig iron output has continued to decline, remaining below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, and the recent decline has been significant, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron output will continue to decline in the near future. For the five major steel products, both production and demand have declined. Considering the gradually cooling weather, the demand for construction steel is expected to be further suppressed. - In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11]. 2. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase month - on - month and a 35.9% decrease year - on - year. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease month - on - month and an 18.5% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, major port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dredging volume, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly production of five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6810 yuan/ton, closed at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6891 yuan/ton, closed at 6886 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.36%), with an open interest of 84,049 lots and an increase of 4,698 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6930 yuan/ton, closed at 6935 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with an open interest of 2,088 lots and an increase of 68 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6490 yuan/ton, closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,784 lots and an increase of 8,183 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6605 yuan/ton, closed at 6592 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with an open interest of 147,404 lots and an increase of 1,154 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6624 yuan/ton, closed at 6622 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.45%), with an open interest of 7,179 lots and a decrease of 46 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots. PP2601 closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,800 lots and an increase of 818,000 lots [6] - Futures remained weak, which was negative for market sentiment. Most trade offers fell, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with only rigid demand purchases [6] - There are no new investment plans in November. Some maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and the device operating load may continue to increase, and the pressure of new capacity expansion will intensify the imbalance between supply and demand [6] - The seasonal peak of agricultural film production has passed, and the demand for pipes has increased first and then decreased. The production of PP woven bags has been boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The downstream is dominated by fear of falling prices, and the willingness to stock up is low, which further drags down the transaction price [6] - In general, under the dual effects of weak cost support and continuous loose supply and demand, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue [6] Group 4: Industry News - On November 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons [7] - The PE market price continued to be weak. The price of LLDPE in North China was 6,780 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,150 - 7,500 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,650 - 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream demand continued to be weak, and the willingness of production enterprises to sell at a discount was obvious. The decline of propylene price widened, and the downstream factories were more wait - and - see, and the overall market transaction was still average [7] - The PP market remained weak, and the prices of some grades dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6,220 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,330 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,390 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7]