Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 27, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both利多 factors, such as the easing of Sino-US tariff policies and reduced inventory levels, and利空 factors, including the volatility of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high - interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and an increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [3][4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.61%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 6.9% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2508C80000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2]. Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,890 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 210 yuan to 78,890 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase. The Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was 78,520 yuan/ton with no change. The LME Copper 3M contract rose 169 dollars to 9,896 dollars/ton, a 1.74% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95, up 0.05 or 0.63% [7]. Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 78,940 yuan/ton, 78,740 yuan/ton, 78,860 yuan/ton, and 78,950 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 360 yuan (0.46%), 180 yuan (0.23%), 270 yuan (0.34%), and 210 yuan (0.27%) [9]. Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipt was 23,696 tons, up 2,226 tons or 10.37%. The total international copper warehouse receipt was 1,601 tons, down 302 tons or - 15.87% [14]. Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory was 93,075 tons, down 400 tons or - 0.43%. The COMEX copper inventory was 206,135 tons, up 7,730 tons or 3.9% [16][18]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss was - 2,812.05 yuan/ton, down 289.76 yuan or 11.49%. The copper concentrate TC was - 43.13 dollars/ton, up 0.67 dollars or - 1.53% [19].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily for June 27, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Tin Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 19.07%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 47.0% [2] Group 3: Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Group 4: Market Factors Positive Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] Negative Factors - Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6] Group 5: Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures is 267,270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - one is 267,260 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - three is 266,880 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME tin 3M is 33,140 US dollars/ton (up 680 US dollars, 2.09%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 (up 0.08, 1%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 265,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.53%), 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan, - 28.57%), 40% tin concentrate is 253,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60% tin concentrate is 257,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60A solder bar is 172,750 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.58%), 63A solder bar is 180,250 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.56%), and lead - free solder is 271,750 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan, 0.56%) [10][13] Group 6: Tin Import and Processing Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss is - 11,873.99 yuan/ton (up 843.25 yuan, - 6.63%), 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] Group 7: Tin Inventory Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,591 tons (up 119 tons, 1.84%), with 4,242 tons in Guangdong (up 125 tons, 3.04%) and 1,424 tons in Shanghai (down 6 tons, - 0.42%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,115 tons (down 40 tons, - 1.86%) [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, they are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the circumstances of eased geopolitical risks and non - sensitive trade tariff negotiations. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities. The key support for London gold is at 3300, and for London silver is in the 34.8 - 35 area [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed a pattern of strong silver and volatile gold. Bitcoin maintained an oscillation, the US dollar index fell below 98, crude oil oscillated, and the strong US stock market also suppressed the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The abnormal copper price drove the relatively strong trend of silver. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3341.6 per ounce, down 0.04%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.885 per ounce, up 1.22%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 775.28 yuan per gram, up 0.69%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8796 yuan per kilogram, up 1.7% [2]. - US economic data strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The final value of US GDP in 25Q1 was revised down to - 0.5%, and personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the pandemic. Although the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, the number of continued jobless claims jumped to the highest level since November 2021. The preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in May was 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014 [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.7%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 74.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.1%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 26.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 58.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.5% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 953.39 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 50.88 tons to 14866.19 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6 tons to 1270.8 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons in the week ending June 20 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, progress in trade tariff negotiations, and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. At 19:30 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will chair a meeting at the 24th BIS Annual Meeting [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Price Table**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Holdings Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [17][18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [24].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月26日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 小幅缩量调整，等待新的驱动出现 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.35%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落195.89亿元。期 指均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国家发改委：将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，同时，将协调有关方面，坚持更加注重 持续性和均衡性原则，分领域制定落实到每个月、每一周的国补资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全 年有序实施。 核心观点 今日股指小幅缩量回调，调整幅度不大，从盘面指标来看，市场情绪没有明显变化，因此我们认为今日股指 偏弱运行是基于连续多日放量上涨的阶段性调整。由于目前经济基本面仍处于弱复苏状态，信贷、通胀等数 据表现疲软，托底政策预期有所升温，对股指形成支撑。不过短期政策面预计难以出现新的增量信号，需要 等待7月政治局会议的政策指引。当前操作建议多头可持仓观望。 策略推荐 多头持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | ...

国债期货日报 2025年6月26日 行情企稳，继续观望 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘小幅高开后震荡下行，盘中翻绿，午后低位窄幅震荡，尾盘回升跌幅有所收窄。公开市场方 面，到期逆回购2035亿，央行新做5093亿，当日净投放3058亿，市场情绪得到明显呵护。 日内消息： 1.商务部：中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安全，依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的 审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相 关国家的出口管制沟通对话，积极促进便利合规贸易 。 行情研判： 当前债市（特别是长端）跟A股跷跷板效应依旧明显，早盘A股震荡上行期间T从日内高点回落。但总体来看A 股表现较昨日明显降温，在没有基本面利好驱动，单纯靠地缘缓和以及稳定币概念支撑的行情，其持续性也 有待观望。而债市在本轮A股大涨中其实本来表现得就比较有韧性，跌幅并不算大，A股情绪降温的同时，长 端合约价格也有企稳迹象。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both利多 factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations, and利空 factors including the recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5][6] Key Points by Category 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 56.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell the call option SN2508C275000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] - For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the put option SN2508P245000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] 2. News and Factors - The fundamentals of tin remain stable [3] -利多 factors: easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] -利空 factors: recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [5][6] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 263,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai tin continuous - one is 263,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin continuous - three is 262,950 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 32,460 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars (- 0.34%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.04, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.83%). The 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 250,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.87%), and the price of 60% tin concentrate is 254,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.86%). The price of solder bar (60A) is 170,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.58%), the price of solder bar (63A) is 177,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.84%), and the price of lead - free solder is 268,250 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan (- 0.74%) [10][13] 4. Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 12,717.24 yuan/ton, up 25.63% compared to the previous day. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15] 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,472 tons, up 10 tons (0.15%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,117 tons, up 8 tons (0.19%), and in Shanghai is 1,430 tons, up 2 tons (0.14%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons (- 1.15%) [20]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 78,810 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.58%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 6.7% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy: Short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton, and sell 25% of call options (CU2508C80000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy: Long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Important News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] 利多因素 - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] 利空因素 - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5][6] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,810 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,680 | 200 | 0.25% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,270 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,664 | - 30.5 | - 0.31% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.06 | - 0.75% | [6] Spot Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,580 | 165 | 0.21% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 78,560 | 140 | 0.18% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,590 | 160 | 0.2% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,740 | 160 | 0.2% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 30 | - 10 | - 25% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | - 20 | - 40 | - 200% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 25 | - 5 | - 16.67% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | [7] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Tax - included - Current scrap - refined spread: 1,099.57 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 7.85% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 1,484.4 yuan/ton, daily change 0.8 yuan, daily change rate 0.05% - Price advantage: - 384.83 yuan/ton, daily change 79.2 yuan, daily change rate - 17.07% Tax - excluded - Current scrap - refined spread: 5,740 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 1.41% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 6,143.74 yuan/ton, daily change 5.56 yuan, daily change rate 0.09% - Price advantage: - 403.74 yuan/ton, daily change 74.44 yuan, daily change rate - 15.57% [9] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 1,903 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 14,033 | - 904 | - 6.05% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | [12] LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 93,475 | - 1,200 | - 1.27% | | European LME Copper Inventory | tons | 36,525 | - 825 | - 2.21% | | Asian LME Copper Inventory | tons | 58,150 | - 375 | - 0.64% | | North American LME Copper Inventory | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 56,250 | 1,725 | 3.16% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 37,225 | - 2,925 | - 7.29% | [14] COMEX Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 204,316 | 6,955 | 3.52% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 98,357 | - 11,008 | - 0.89% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 105,959 | 1,865 | 1.79% | [16] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 2,522.29 | - 1,315.91 | 109.08% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.8 | 0 | 0% | [17]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry, covering alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy, including price forecasts, risk management strategies, and analysis of core contradictions, influencing factors [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at a low level in the short term, with a reference cost line of 2,800 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and can be shorted on rallies in the medium to long term [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly in the short term, and positive spreads can be considered due to the obvious back structure [3]. Summary by Category Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2,919 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 2,800 - 3,200 yuan/ton, a current volatility of 0.206, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3798 [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20,355 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 19,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, a current volatility of 0.0926, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3783 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 19,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 18,500 - 19,900 yuan/ton [1]. Risk Management Strategies | Product | Situation | Spot Exposure | Strategy | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main alumina futures contract | Main alumina futures contract | Sell | 75% | 3,000 | | Alumina | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main alumina futures contract | Main alumina futures contract | Buy | 75% | 2,700 | | Electrolytic aluminum | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Sell | 75% | 20,800 | | Electrolytic aluminum | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Buy | 75% | 19,900 | | Aluminum alloy | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main aluminum alloy futures contract | Main aluminum alloy futures contract | Sell | 50% | 19,200 | | Aluminum alloy | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main aluminum alloy futures contract | Main aluminum alloy futures contract | Buy | 50% | 19,600 | [1] Core Contradictions - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may remain shut down in the short term, which may lead to monthly supply shortages and push up ore prices. The game between production resumption and maintenance keeps the market oscillating. Overall, alumina is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are running at a low level [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling with little change. Demand is showing signs of weakening, but the current demand remains firm. The inventory increase may or may not be the inflection point, and the market is in a strong long - short game [3]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: The raw material scrap aluminum is in short supply, making the cost support strong. Supply capacity is relatively surplus, and demand may slow down in the second half of the year [3]. Influencing Factors - **Alumina** - **Positive factors**: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - **Negative factors**: New production capacity is continuously put into operation, and demand is rigid with no increase [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - **Negative factors**: Terminal factory orders are in decline, and downstream开工率 has slightly decreased with signs of finished - product inventory accumulation. There is also a risk of profit - driven restarts of shut - down enterprises and a decline in spot prices [3][6]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - **Positive factors**: Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and cost support is strong [3]. - **Negative factors**: Demand is expected to weaken, and the industry has over - capacity [3]. Market Data - **Prices and price differences**: The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum - related products, as well as price differences between different contracts [5][9][12]. - **Inventory**: It shows the latest inventory data of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, including warehouse receipts and inventory in different regions [27]. - **Import and export profits and losses**: The report presents the latest import and export profit - loss data of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Middle - East situation and the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a flash crash in overseas crude oil, which may affect the overall sentiment of commodities. Although the coking coal futures market has shown strength recently, this rebound has not boosted the sentiment in the spot market. Downstream enterprises generally lack confidence in future demand, and the inventory of upstream coking coal mines continues to accumulate, with significant pressure on spot sales. After four rounds of price cuts, the probability of an immediate price increase is low. The industry can focus on hedging opportunities at low basis levels [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the coal - coking market. Positive factors include开工 fluctuations in mines and coal - washing plants during the safety production month, price support at the pithead during the peak demand season for thermal coal, high hot - metal production, stable steel - mill profitability, and the absence of obvious off - season characteristics in steel products. Negative factors are the overall goal of stable coal production and supply throughout the year, and the potential decline in coal - coking demand due to the possible inflection point in hot - metal production [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 38.23% and a historical percentile of 76.11% [2]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1320 - 1450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.97% and a historical percentile of 55.42% [2]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lock in selling price | Steel mills propose price cuts for coke, worried about coke price decline | Long | Short coke 2509 contract | J2509 | Sell | 25% | 1400 - 1420 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1420 - 1450 | | Lock in selling price | High inventory of coking coal in the spot market, worried about further price decline | Long | Short coking coal 2509 contract | JM2509 | Sell | 25% | 800 - 820 | | | | | | | | 50% | 820 - 850 | [2] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 06 - 25 | 2025 - 06 - 24 | Month - on - Month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 18221 | 18221 | 0 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 72293 | 74357 | - 2064 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3000 | 3000 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 90 | 90 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Sheets | 6415 | 0 | 6415 | | Silicomanganese | Sheets | 93468 | 93769 | - 301 | [3] 3.4 Coal - Coking Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides data on coking coal and coke futures prices, including warehouse - receipt costs, basis, and price differences between different contracts on different dates, as well as daily and weekly price changes [7]. - **Spot Prices**: It includes the prices of various types of coking coal and coke, such as the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coal, the CFR price of imported coal, and the ex - factory and warehouse - out prices of coke, along with their daily and weekly price changes [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Risk Premiums Fade [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Zhou Jiawei (Futures Practice License No.: F03133676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The direct impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on ethylene glycol was mainly reflected in the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices on the cost side and disturbances on the supply side. Currently, the influence of geopolitics is gradually fading, and the price of ethylene glycol is now mainly driven by fundamentals [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for ethylene glycol in the next month is 4000 - 4600 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.82% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over the past 3 years. For PX, it is 6400 - 7300 yuan, with a volatility of 31.00% and a historical percentile of 87.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 29.19% and a historical percentile of 84.7%. For bottle chips, it is 5700 - 6400 yuan, with a volatility of 22.78% and a historical percentile of 71.3% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, companies with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at an entry range of 4400 - 4500 yuan with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4200) at a range of 20 - 40 yuan and sell call options (EG2509C4500) at a range of 40 - 60 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at an entry range of 4200 - 4250 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4150) at a range of 50 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on ethylene glycol was mainly on the cost side (crude oil price fluctuations) and the supply side. Now, the influence of geopolitics is waning, and the price is back to being fundamentally driven [3] 利多解读 - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which in turn pushed up the polyester sector. The cost side showed an increase in absolute prices following the rise in crude oil prices, and coal - based profits are expected to expand. However, due to factors such as device operating conditions, the additional supply increase is expected to be limited. The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but it is expected to have limited impact on the supply side before August [3] 利空解读 - Bottle chip factories announced production cut plans, expected to affect a total capacity of 230 - 300 million tons, weakening the demand for EG. With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices quickly fell, mainly affecting coal - based ethylene glycol production. Although coal - based profits have been compressed, they remain at a good level, mainly resulting in a downward shift in the absolute price range. Iran's ethylene glycol production is about 190 million tons, with about half exported to China. The actual monthly supply to the Chinese market is about 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imports. The previous expectation of reduced imports is now less likely, and the main impact is expected to be on August imports. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of local Iranian plants and port shipments [4][6] Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price, price difference, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and production and sales rate data for various polyester - related products on June 25, 24, and 18, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]