Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Ferrosilicon Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 16.28%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 38.0% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 14.87%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 25.0% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 15% hedging ratio at SF: 6,200 - 6,250, SM: 6,400 - 6,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at SF: 5,100 - 5,200, SM: 5,300 - 5,400 to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Iron alloys have a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off-season, the long-term trend of iron alloys remains relatively weak. The previous high inventory and high supply of iron alloys are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low supply pressure. Iron alloys will continue the de-stocking trend, but the de-stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of lower electricity prices for iron alloys and the arrival of the wet season in the south, so the cost side still has a downward expectation. The July quotation of manganese ore has been lowered, and the black market is facing the expectation of negative feedback in the off-season demand trading. It is expected that iron alloys will still operate weakly. However, the trading volume of iron alloys has decreased, and some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is vulnerable to news disturbances. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound to short [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon profits are at the bottom of the profit range, with production cut drivers, and the futures market may rebound due to production cut disturbances [4] - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 68,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.71% [4] Silicon Manganese - The government's control policies for high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations [5] - The total silicon manganese inventory shows a de-stocking trend [5] - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 474,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06%; the total silicon manganese inventory was 680,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - The weekly operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises was 32.69%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon was 97,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.93% [6] - The coal sector continues to be weak, and there is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of iron alloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak [7] - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 36.39%, a week-on-week increase of 1.09%. The weekly output of silicon manganese was 176,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.85%. The silicon manganese enterprise inventory was 205,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.1% [7] - The July quotation of Comilog Gabon lump ore is 4.25 US dollars/ton degree, a month-on-month decrease of 0.15 US dollars/ton degree [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Ferrosilicon - On June 25, 2025, the silicon ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 86 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 18 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 05 - 09 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 09 - 01 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 8 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week-on-week increase of 50 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were 6,415 tons, an increase of 6,415 tons from the previous day and a week-on-week decrease of 8,686 tons [8] Silicon Manganese - On June 25, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 196 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 98 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was 46 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 24 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was -30 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 22 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] - The double-silicon spread was -280 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,400 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 93,468 tons, a day-on-day decrease of 301 tons and a week-on-week decrease of 1,427 tons [10]

国债期货日报 2025年6月25日 跷跷板回归 1.国泰君安国际港交所公告称，本公告旨在让公司股东及潜在投资者知悉本公司的最新业务发展。公司谨此公 告，于2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监 察委员会(「证监会」)批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在证监会持牌平台上开 立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。 行情研判： 债市依旧没有什么实际利空，但确实受到股债跷跷板的影响。长端跌幅相对更多，中短端坚挺表明流动性的 利好依然在。操作上，目前边走边看，依旧坚持逢低加仓的观点。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-24 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-24 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | TS2509 | 102.506 | 102.5 | 0.006 | 102.538 | TS合约持仓(手） ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated June 25, 2025, written by Xia Yingying and Yu Weihang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. It is necessary to wait for inventory to be digested to a healthy level [3] - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the industry situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Price Range - Industrial silicon's strong pressure level is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.0%, a daily decline of 1.00%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 72.2% [2] - Polysilicon's strong pressure level is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.26%, a daily decline of 0.30%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 53.38% [2] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production plans and raw material price increase risks, buy long - term futures contracts according to production plans, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Core Logic - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply surplus pressure persists. Supply may increase with the approaching of the wet season, and demand from different industries varies. It is necessary to wait for inventory digestion [3] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination or integration, the industry situation may improve [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: Cost reduction space is limited in the short - term, profit valuation is low, and there is a high probability of supply disturbances; downstream enterprises' profits exist, and production enthusiasm is promoted by the approaching wet season [7] - **Polysilicon**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans; downstream enterprises recognize and buy polysilicon on the futures side; the phenomenon of high open interest in near - month contracts and few warehouse receipts may cause market fluctuations [7] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: The release of production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be realized as the wet season approaches; the rumor of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality [7] - **Polysilicon**: The failure of enterprise integration and elimination, and enterprises maintain the status quo of production; raw material prices are low and production profit increases, leading to increased production [5][8] Industrial Silicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.94% [10] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 504,119 lots, a decrease of 17.69% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 306,644 lots, an increase of 4.50% compared with the previous period [10] Industrial Silicon Spot Data - Prices of 553 and 421 silicon in different regions are mostly stable, with the price of Sichuan 421 silicon decreasing by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [16] - The basis of East China 553 and 421 silicon has decreased, with a decline of 8.9% and 5.08% respectively [16] Polysilicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 30,625 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1.48% [24] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 146,141 lots, a decrease of 15.02% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 80,107 lots, an increase of 10.82% compared with the previous period [24] Polysilicon Spot Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon are stable, with no daily change [37] Silicon Wafer Data - The prices of N - type silicon wafers mostly show a downward trend, with the N - type silicon wafer price index decreasing by 0.02 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.02 [38] Warehouse Receipt Data - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts are 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots compared with the previous period, a decline of 3.52% [22] - The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, with no change compared with the previous period [40]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face significant pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end. A decline in ore prices may lead to a further drop in lithium salt prices, potentially resulting in a spiral - like cycle of price decline. The fundamentals in Q3 remain in an oversupply situation, while the short - term technical aspects may experience a phased rebound. Currently, a weak - oscillating outlook is maintained [3]. - Positive factors include an increasing probability of supply - side disruptions as lithium ore and lithium salt prices fall, potential market confidence boost from the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers, which could lift futures prices [4]. - Negative factors involve a large future production capacity of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, which in turn could drag down the cost of lithium carbonate; high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt and a continued inventory accumulation trend; and the delay of capacity clearance due to cost reduction in some high - cost technical routes caused by industrial technological upgrades [5]. Group 3: Futures Price and Strategy - The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 23.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling lithium carbonate futures (LC2509), 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, lithium carbonate forward contracts can be bought according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and put options can be sold while buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. Group 4: Futures Market Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan (0.30%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 366,743 lots, down 315,004 lots (- 46.21%), and the open interest is 350,406 lots, up 6,842 lots (1.99%) [8]. - Regarding the lithium carbonate monthly spreads, LC07 - 08 is 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 16.67%); LC08 - 11 is 340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 15.00%); LC09 - 11 is 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 30%); LC11 - 12 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (6%) [14]. Group 5: Lithium Ore Price - The daily average quotes of lithium ore show different prices and changes for different months from June 2025 to July 2026 [17]. - The latest average prices of lithium mica with different grades (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,210 yuan/ton, 2,205 yuan/ton, and 4,505 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton (1.68%), 30 yuan/ton (1.38%), and 45 yuan/ton (1.01%). For lithium spodumene with Li2O: 6% from different sources, the prices and changes vary. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6 - 7%) has an average price of 4,875 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton (- 6.70%). The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1717, unchanged [19]. Group 6: Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Price - The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) are 58,600 yuan/ton, 60,200 yuan/ton, 52,370 yuan/ton, 63,420 yuan/ton, 8.13 USD/kg, and 8.25 USD/kg respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes [22]. - The electric - carbon minus industrial - carbon spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen minus electric - carbon spread is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton (- 15.71%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea and the domestic price is - 3.92 yuan/ton, up 166.44 yuan/ton (- 97.70%) [25]. Group 7: Downstream Product Price - The latest average prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate (power - type, low - end energy - storage type, mid - to - high - end energy - storage type), lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes (for different uses) and their daily changes and percentage changes are provided [35][36]. Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Warrant - The total number of lithium carbonate warrants is 22,370, down 5 from the previous day. Warrant numbers at different warehouses and sub - warehouses are also provided, with most remaining unchanged [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel had a certain correction. Currently, there is still support from the ore price. Attention should be paid to whether the nickel ore benchmark price and premium will decline due to the market. In the short - term, only the nickel ore supports the bottom space. The ferronickel price is still falling but is close to the low - valuation range, with limited further decline space. The bottom support of stainless steel has stabilized. There is news that Tsingshan will cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, and spot - end transactions have improved. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment due to the disturbance of the Congo cobalt mine, and the downstream acceptance has also increased. It still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Future focus is on the production - cut intensity and whether the inventory improves [3] - On the positive side, there is still support from the nickel ore price at the cost end, the cobalt mine ban in Congo continues, and Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons. On the negative side, stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction, the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged, and the pure nickel inventory is high [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract; also, sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts; sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options; buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options [2] 3.2 Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data - Nickel disk: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 118,600 yuan/ton, 118,670 yuan/ton, 118,830 yuan/ton, and 118,960 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.88%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M is at 14,905 US dollars/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume is 76,394 lots, down 20.49%; the open interest is 36,302 lots, down 30.20%; the warrant number is 21,359 tons, down 1.03%; the basis of the main contract is - 790 yuan/ton, up 7.5% [6] - Stainless steel disk: The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,470 yuan/ton, and 12,415 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.80%, 0.81%, and 0.85%. The trading volume is 175,419 lots, down 16.10%; the open interest is 159,994 lots, down 13.94%; the warrant number is 112,867 tons, down 0.32%; the basis of the main contract is 530 yuan/ton, down 8.62% [7] 3.3 Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 38,223 tons, down 1,160 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 204,360 tons, up 432 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons, up 1.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons, up 3,148 tons [8]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月25日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 内外利好，股指延续上涨 市场回顾 今日股指放量上涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.44%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1881.59亿元。 期指均放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领 域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提 出19项重点举措。《意见》明确，设立服务消费与养老再贷款，额度5000亿元。健全投资和融资相协调的资 本市场功能，推动中长期资金入市，促进资本市场稳定发展。 2. 以色列和伊朗同意全面停火！伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与"以色列及其支持者"停火。 核心观点 昨日收盘后央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，文件中明确设立额度5000 亿元的服务消费与养老再贷款。再加上以色列和伊朗同意全面停火。内外双重利好下今日股指再度放量大 涨。从期指算术平均基差来看，各期指均贴水 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, lower inventory levels, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Negative factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and the Fed maintaining high - interest rates [4][5][6] Detailed Summaries by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.56%, and the historical percentile is 6.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, the strategy is to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2508C80000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, the strategy is to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 400 yuan/ton (0.51%), and the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract was at 9,664 US dollars/ton, down 30.5 US dollars (-0.31%), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.1 (-1.24%) [6] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was at 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.11%); Shanghai Wumaotong was at 78,420 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.1%); Guangdong Nanchu was at 78,430 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%); Yangtze Non - ferrous was at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%). The spot premiums of major markets all declined [7] Refined - Scrap Copper Spread - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 1,019.57 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (10.87%); the reasonable spread was 1,483.6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.07%). The price advantage was - 464.03 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan (-17.58%) [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts totaled 22,425 tons, down 3,103 tons (-12.16%); LME copper inventory totaled 94,675 tons, down 1,200 tons (-1.25%); COMEX copper inventory totaled 203,335 tons, up 7,289 tons (3.72%) [12][14][16] Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit was - 2,522.29 yuan/ton, down 1,315.91 yuan (109.08%); the copper concentrate TC was - 43.8 US dollars/ton, with no change [17]

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年6月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 263800 | 245000-263000 | 21.41% | 57.0% | 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 100% | 290000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2508C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, with geopolitical risks easing and trade tariff negotiations not in a sensitive period, the market is expected to remain volatile at high levels. Short - term corrections are seen as medium - to long - term buying opportunities. The key support for London gold is at $3300, and for London silver is in the $34.8 - 35 range [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to adjust. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3338.5 per ounce, down 1.66%; COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $35.88 per ounce, up 0.41%. SHFE gold 2508 contract closed at 771.86 yuan per gram, down 1.26%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8739 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. During the conflict period, London gold rose from $3300 to $3450 and then retraced to around $3300. The warming expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year limited the decline of precious metals [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 18.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 70%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 15.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 9.8%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.7 tons to 955.7 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 73.5 tons to 14877.5 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 16.9 tons to 1247.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3] This Week's Focus - This week, the focus is on the US PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, progress in trade tariff negotiations, and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. On Wednesday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will give testimony on the semi - annual monetary policy report to the Senate Committee. On Friday at 02:30, ECB President Lagarde will speak, and at 19:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will chair a meeting at the 24th BIS Annual Meeting [4][5] Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: Data on the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as SHFE - TD spreads and CME gold - silver ratio are provided [7] - **Inventory and Holdings**: Data on the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver holdings, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings are presented [17] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: Data on the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, LmeS copper, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to remain in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, new device production capacity will increase significantly from June to August, and the device maintenance season is coming to an end, leading to a supply rebound. On the demand side, it is still in the off - season of production and sales, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited demand growth [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.77% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.0% [1]. 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs; sell PP2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [1]. 3.3 Market News Impact - Trump's statement about a cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to an opening limit - down in oil prices and a general decline in chemical products [2]. 3.4 Supply - Side Factors - New devices from Rulong 2 - line and Zhenhai Phase II were put into production during the Dragon Boat Festival and last weekend. Multiple devices will be put into operation from June to August, increasing PP production capacity significantly. In July, PP device maintenance is expected to decrease, and devices will gradually resume operation [4]. 3.5 Demand - Side Factors - It is currently the off - season for downstream sales, and with poor overall profits this year, domestic demand has been weak recently [4]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Compared with June 24th and June 18th, on June 25th, the daily change of most futures prices was 0, while the weekly change showed a downward trend. For example, the PP01 contract decreased by 126 yuan/ton week - on - week, the PP05 contract decreased by 142 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the PP09 contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton week - on - week [5][7]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in different regions also showed a downward trend. For example, the price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with June 18th [7]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil prices decreased by 8.97 dollars/barrel week - on - week, and the profits of different production methods of PP also changed. For example, the oil - to - PP profit increased by 279.7261 yuan/ton week - on - week [7].