1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil and fat logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node to confirm the planting area, and after the announcement, the weather conditions in the production area should be continuously monitored. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and bottom - fishing for far - month contracts are suitable [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1857 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3888 [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When the protein inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in meal prices, traders with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills with short positions can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market's previous oil - related trading logic has weakened, and the US soybean is at a key time for planting area confirmation. The domestic market has near - month pressure and far - month supply gap and weather speculation logic [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Bearish Interpretation - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures market through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6]. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream has a low cost - performance ratio for adding rapeseed meal. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow that of soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oil Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2987, up 4 (0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2707, down 3 (- 0.11%); soybean meal 09 is 2946, up 10 (0.34%) [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2290, down 15 (- 0.65%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2321, down 9 (- 0.39%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2559, up 9 (0.35%) [10]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: The closing price is 1016.25, unchanged (0%) [10]. - **Off - shore RMB**: The closing price is 7.1619, down 0.0128 (- 0.18%) [10]. 3.7 Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 280, up 7; M05 - 09 is - 239, down 13; M09 - 01 is - 41, up 6 [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spread of RM01 - 05 is - 31, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 238, down 18; RM09 - 01 is 269, up 24 [11]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2840, unchanged; the basis is - 106, down 10. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2578, down 23; the basis is 28, up 15. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 262, unchanged; the futures spread is 387, up 1 [11]. 3.8 Oil Import Cost and Crushing Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4493.3329 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and down 0.0643 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3738.92 yuan/ton, up 0.38 yuan/ton and down 138.33 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 700.3529 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and up 108.2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 229.0205 yuan/ton, up 28.0974 yuan/ton and unchanged week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 87 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton and down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 80 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton and down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current production progress in Brazil is slightly slow, but the high sugar - alcohol ratio leads to a high expectation in the overseas market for a decline in Brazil's new harvest season output. The market has high expectations for increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 harvest seasons, which suppresses sugar prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in China is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of sugar is 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 3.1% [3] - For inventory management when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about sugar price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850, and sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680, and sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 464.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.71 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) predicts that India's sugar ending inventory in the 2024/25 harvest season will be between 4.8 and 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5] - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5] - From the beginning of the 2025/26 harvest season to the first half of May, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5] - In May, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [5] - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6] Bearish Factors - In the 2024/25 harvest season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons [7] - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 harvest season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [7] - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 harvest season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [7] - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and the sugar production in the 2025/26 harvest season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [7] - In May, sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [7] Market Data Basis Changes - On June 26, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 479, with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 15; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 289, with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly decrease of 40 [8] Futures Prices and Spreads - On June 27, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5600, with a daily decline of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48%; the closing price of SR03 was 5573, with a daily decline of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.38% [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 27, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6090, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 60; the price of Liuzhou sugar was 6110, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 55 [10] Sugar Import Price Changes - On June 27, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4450, with a daily increase of 57 and a weekly decrease of 26; the out - of - quota import price was 5653, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 33 [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Today, the stock index rose after opening and then declined, indicating significant upward pressure. With a quiet news background and the domestic economy in a weak recovery, the stock index lacks sufficient positive drivers and is unlikely to break through the pressure line to form an upward trend. The latest data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size have turned negative year - on - year, affected by tariffs and prices, and also indicating insufficient effective demand. Amid weak economic data, expectations of supportive policies have increased, providing support for the stock index. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 420.50 million yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined on increased volume, while IC and IM rose on increased volume [4]. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will allocate the third batch of funds for the consumer goods trade - in program in July. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in May decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and from January to May, they decreased by 1.1% [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the main contract's intraday percentage change, trading volume, trading volume change compared to the previous period, open interest, and open interest change compared to the previous period for IF, IH, IC, and IM [7]. Spot Market Observation - The table presents the Shanghai Composite Index's percentage change, Shenzhen Component Index's percentage change, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, the trading volume of the two markets, and the trading volume change compared to the previous period [8]. Other Data Presentations - There are charts showing the ratio of margin trading turnover to A - share trading turnover, cross - variety strength comparisons (IH/IC, IC/IM, IH/IM, IF/IH, IF/IM, IF/IC), volume - weighted average premium/discount rates and closing prices of various indices (IF, IH, IC, IM), and price - to - earnings ratios of various indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) [9][10][11][18]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. It is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the yield of this variety is relatively small [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas that may lead to a large reduction in yield. Bearish factors are that the overall reduction in yield is less than expected based on bagging conditions, and the peak season of seasonal fruits has an impact on apple sales [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.6% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - For those worried about a high - yield of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a reduction in new - crop apple yield, and high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in purchase costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of AP01, AP03, AP04, etc. showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7594, with a daily decline of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various apple varieties such as Qixia First - and Second - grade 80, Luochuan Semi - commercial 70 remained unchanged on that day [6]. - **Other Indicators**: The disk profit was - 709, with a daily decline of 2.61% and a weekly decline of 2.48%. The delivery theoretical price was 8600, remaining unchanged [6]. Apple Inventory - **National Cold - Storage Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 106.91 (a decrease of 9.58 compared to the previous period), and on June 26, 2025, it was 100.07 (a decrease of 8.76 compared to the previous period) [8]. - **Regional Storage Ratios**: The storage ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu and other regions showed different degrees of decline [8]. - **Wholesale Market Arrival Volume**: The arrival volumes at Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, and Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale markets increased compared to the previous period [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino-US policies are temporarily stable, but the crude oil price fluctuates greatly due to the Israel-Iran war. During the off-season of demand, the rebound momentum of cotton prices is slightly weak. However, due to the small quantity of imported cotton, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly. It is expected that the supply and demand may become tight by the end of the year, and the downside space of cotton prices is narrowing. In the short term, the pressure around 13,800 should be monitored above, and the support around 13,000 below. Attention should also be paid to the inventory reduction speed of cotton during the off-season [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,000 - 13,800, with a current volatility (20-day rolling) of 0.062 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 years) of 0.0597 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and wishing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,000 - 13,200. They can also sell put options (CF509P13000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 100 - 150 [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Affected by high tariffs, this year's cotton import volume has decreased significantly, and there is no reserve cotton sold. Although the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, the inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis remains strong. As of June 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 4.057 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly concentrated around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton not hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off-season, with slow sales, reduced load of spinning and weaving mills, general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, strong wait-and-see sentiment, and continuous accumulation of finished product inventory [5] Futures Price - Cotton 01 closed at 13,765, up 100 or 0.73%; Cotton 05 closed at 13,750, up 100 or 0.73%; Cotton 09 closed at 13,760, up 40 or 0.29%;棉纱 01 closed at 20,055, up 35 or 0.17%;棉纱 05 closed at 0, down 20,050 or -100%;棉纱 09 closed at 20,105, up 45 or 0.22% [5][6] Price Spread - Cotton basis was 1,349, up 49; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was -10, up 60; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was -5, down 60; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,365, down 30; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,294, down 14; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was -627, unchanged [6] Price Index - CCI 3128B was 15,109, up 89 or 0.59%; CCI 2227B was 13,145, up 60 or 0.46%; CCI 2129B was 15,378, up 60 or 0.39%; FCI Index S was 14,007, up 92 or 0.66%; FCI Index M was 13,818, up 92 or 0.67%; FCI Index L was 13,588, up 93 or 0.69% [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp futures contract rebounded slightly today but remained weak. The demand side is in the traditional off - season, with downstream paper manufacturers' inventories piling up and low procurement willingness. The supply side shows high - level fluctuations in imports and falling import prices, especially a severe oversupply of hardwood pulp. The next demand peak is expected to start in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may occur after July. The pulp price is under downward pressure in a weak supply - demand environment, and the pulp futures are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend but have limited downside space [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range of pulp is predicted to be between 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 79.5% [2]. - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is high, enterprises can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - For procurement management, when paper manufacturers' inventory is low, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The pulp futures are weak due to weak demand in the off - season and high - level supply. The next demand peak is expected in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may be after July. The pulp price faces downward pressure, and the futures are unlikely to rise continuously but have limited downside [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - The potential bullish factors include a significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. - The bearish factor is the continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes. The report also lists the price changes of various pulp types and paper products, showing a general downward trend in pulp prices [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The spread between the 7 - 9 contracts reached a new high of 28 [3]. - With one trading day left for the 07 contract, it has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position of 10,984 lots is still large. There is a possibility of significant position - reduction on Monday, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [3]. - The hedging profit window on the market is still open, while there is no profit for long - position holders to take delivery. Fundamentally, there are no obvious changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over the past 3 years is 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order conditions, for short - position exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The 7 - 9 spread reached a new high of 28. With one trading day left, the 07 contract has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position is still large. There is a risk of large market fluctuations due to significant position - reduction on Monday [3]. Spot and Basis - Multiple types of log spot prices, basis, and related data are provided, including different specifications, ports, and their corresponding prices, price changes, and basis calculations [4][7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Importers have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; macro - policies are taking effect; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker than expected and sales are slow; subsequent shipping volumes are expected to pick up [6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.35 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.99 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1.109845 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 23,277 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [7]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume from ports was 63,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,800 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.1% [7]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/m³. The spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/m³, with no week - on - week change [7].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.16% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][4]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell -0.71%, while the rest rose. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 1.07%, and the Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.02% [1][4]. - Among the theme indices, the Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.41%, and the Mini - Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.02%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -0.28%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.01% [1][4]. - In the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Industrial Silicon index had the largest increase of 4.02%, and the Natural Rubber index had the largest decline of -1.15% [1][4]. 2. Index Data Details | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | Daily % | ARR | An. Vol | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCl | 2449.47 | 2445.63 | 3.84 | 0.16% | -6.46% | 13.94% | -0.46 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1225.37 | 1234.09 | -8.72 | -0.71% | 27.57% | 17.47% | 1.58 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3533.86 | 3518.77 | 15.08 | 0.43% | -13.09% | 15.87% | -0.82 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6150.34 | 6096.11 | 54.23 | 0.89% | -7.58% | 14.94% | -0.51 | | Energy - Chemical Index NHECI | 1647.50 | 1647.11 | 0.40 | 0.02% | -17.78% | 17.91% | -0.99 | | Non - Ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1666.87 | 1652.05 | 14.82 | 0.90% | -2.07% | 13.67% | -0.15 | | Black Index NHFI | 2358.92 | 2333.97 | 24.95 | 1.07% | -21.21% | 21.24% | -1.00 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1078.11 | 1077.63 | 0.48 | 0.04% | 1.92% | 9.75% | 0.20 | | Mini - Composite Index NHCIMi | 1133.71 | 1133.53 | 0.18 | 0.02% | -0.66% | 16.23% | -0.04 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1052.31 | 1055.27 | -2.96 | -0.28% | 1.47% | 33.50% | 0.04 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 952.38 | 952.48 | -0.10 | -0.01% | 2.43% | 17.25% | 0.14 | | Coal - Chemical Index NHCCI | 1037.31 | 1039.38 | -2.06 | -0.20% | 1.23% | 16.56% | 0.07 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 951.79 | 938.54 | 13.26 | 1.41% | -1.43% | 18.24% | -0.08 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 722.76 | 717.71 | 5.05 | 0.70% | -2.25% | 14.06% | -0.16 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1201.42 | 1200.02 | 1.39 | 0.12% | 0.31% | 10.27% | 0.03 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 892.00 | 892.08 | -0.08 | -0.01% | 0.81% | 7.00% | 0.12 | [4] 3. Single - Variety Index in Agricultural Sector - In the agricultural products sector, the single - variety index daily returns include: soybean oil 0.19%, rapeseed oil - 0.17%, soybean meal 0.34%, rapeseed - 0.33%, live pigs - 0.25%, palm oil 0.35%, and corn [7]. 4. Single - Variety Index in Energy - Chemical Sector - In the energy - chemical sector, the single - variety index daily returns include: synthetic ammonia 0.03%, ethylene - 0.25%, LPG - 0.21%, hydrocarbons - 0.87%, and low - sulfur fuel oil - 0.06% [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Glass demand remains weakly expected, with low prices but lack of drivers and no unplanned cold repair expectations. If low prices persist, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations and the sustainability of speculative sentiment. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamental drivers are limited [2]. - The expectation of oversupply in the soda ash market remains consistent, and there are still new production capacities planned in the long - term. The cost is decreasing. Currently, maintenance has a very weak impact on the futures market, and cost support is insufficient. Further decline in the futures price requires a decrease in the spot price, and the driving force comes from a new round of production cuts on the demand side or further inventory accumulation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 72.2%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1000 - 1250, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.12% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.0% [1]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short glass futures (FG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1050, and sell call options (FG509 C1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40. For soda ash inventory management, short soda ash futures (SA2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1250, and sell call options (SA509 C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [1]. Core Contradictions - Glass: Demand is weakly expected, prices are low but lack drivers, and there are no unplanned cold repair expectations. Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of oversupply, new production capacities in the long - term, and cost reduction [2]. 利多 and 利空解读 - **Glass - Bullish factors**: Low prices may stimulate short - term speculative sentiment; if low prices persist, cold repair expectations may gradually increase; mid - stream inventory is relatively low. Bearish factors: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, actual demand is weak, and overall social inventory is high [2]. - **Soda ash - Bullish factors**: Low prices may lead to a phased improvement in manufacturers' order - signing; high export levels relieve domestic oversupply pressure. Bearish factors: Photovoltaic production has continuous kiln - mouth blockages, with an expected weakening of rigid demand; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; cost support is insufficient [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Glass**: On June 27, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1121 (up 8 or 0.72% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1019 (up 3 or 0.3%), and the 01 contract was 1077 (up 4 or 0.37%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 102 (up 5), the 9 - 1 month spread was - 58 (down 1), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 44 (down 4). The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 3 (down 8.8), and in Hubei was - 53 (up 54). The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 105.2 (down 3.8), and in Hubei was - 16 (up 1) [3][5]. - **Soda ash**: On June 27, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1215 (up 7 or 0.58% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1196 (up 16 or 1.36%), and the 01 contract was 1192 (up 20 or 1.71%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 19 (down 9 or 32.14%), the 9 - 1 month spread was 4 (down 4 or 50%), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 (up 13 or - 36.11%). The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 18 (down 16), and the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 236 (down 16) [7]. Spot Price Data - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass in Shahe on June 27, 2025, was 1124.2 (down 0.8 from the previous day). The prices in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Soda ash**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali spot prices in different regions remained stable on June 27, 2025 [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows a pattern of reduced supply with a false increase. The supply side shrinks slightly due to the decrease in the operating rate of refineries in South China. The inventory changes little month - on - month, and the demand shows characteristics of the rainy season. The biggest variable is the geopolitical premium caused by the Israel - Iran conflict. The short - term asphalt futures price fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it is necessary to see if the decline in demand growth due to the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the peak season performance is still worth looking forward to [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 58.33% [1] 3.2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy 3.2.1. Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot exposure, they can short the asphalt futures (bu2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3650 - 3750 [1] 3.2.2. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, for those with short spot exposure, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3.3. Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors 3.3.1. Core Contradictions - The supply - demand side has a complex situation, and the biggest variable is the Israel - Iran conflict. The short - term price follows crude oil, and it is necessary to observe the matching of supply and demand growth in the short and long terms [2] 3.3.2. Bullish Factors - The asphalt's own inventory structure is good; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the increase in crude oil prices significantly raises the cost [2][4] 3.3.3. Bearish Factors - The cracking remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the rainy season in the South drags down demand; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the return of the war premium on crude oil [4] 3.4. Asphalt Price and Basis Data 3.4.1. Spot Price - On June 27, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3805 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week); the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week); the South China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2] 3.4.2. Basis - On June 27, 2025, the Shandong spot 09 basis was 244 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 191 yuan/ton week - on - week); the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 219 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 196 yuan/ton week - on - week); the North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 136 yuan/ton week - on - week); the South China spot 09 basis was 89 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 166 yuan/ton week - on - week) [5] 3.4.3. Cracking - On June 27, 2025, the cracking of Shandong spot to Brent was 181.3768 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 67.1332 yuan/barrel week - on - week); the cracking of the futures main contract to Brent was 139.0944 yuan/barrel (down 0.3466 yuan/barrel from the previous day, up 34.0351 yuan/barrel week - on - week) [5] 3.5. Seasonal Charts - There are seasonal charts of asphalt 09 contract basis in Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast regions; asphalt futures month - spreads (06 - 09 and 09 - 12); domestic asphalt refinery total inventory rate (Baichuan sample); asphalt warehouse and factory - warehouse receipt quantities; and domestic asphalt social inventory rate (Baichuan sample) [6][11][13]